TEDMED 2018
Daniel Streicker: What vaccinating vampire bats can teach us about pandemics
丹尼爾‧史德雷克: 為蝙蝠施打疫苗，如何能協助我們解決流行病爆發？
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我們能夠預測到下次的疾病大型爆發，阻止像伊波拉這類病毒展開攻擊嗎？在這場關於前線科學研究的演說中，生態學家丹尼爾‧史德雷克帶我們到秘魯的亞馬遜雨林，他在那裡追蹤吸血蝙蝠的移動，以預測和預防狂犬病爆發。透過研究這些疾病模式，史德雷克說明我們能如何從源頭將下一次的流行病根除。
Daniel Streicker - Animal-borne disease researcher
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease. Full bio
Daniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
The story that I'm going
to tell you today,
to tell you today,
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今天我要告訴大家的故事，
對我來說，開始於 2006 年。
對我來說，開始於 2006 年。
00:15
for me, began back in 2006.
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00:17
That was when I first heard
about an outbreak of mysterious illness
about an outbreak of mysterious illness
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那時，我初次聽到
有一種神秘的疾病爆發了，
有一種神秘的疾病爆發了，
00:21
that was happening in the Amazon
rainforest of Peru.
rainforest of Peru.
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它發生在秘魯的亞馬遜雨林。
00:24
The people that were getting sick
from this illness,
from this illness,
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染上這種疾病的人
會出現很可怕的症狀，像惡夢一樣。
00:27
they had horrifying symptoms, nightmarish.
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00:29
They had unbelievable headaches,
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他們會有無法忍受的頭痛，
無法正常進食或喝水：
無法正常進食或喝水：
00:31
they couldn't eat or drink.
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00:33
Some of them were even hallucinating --
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其中有些人還會妄想——
既困惑又激進——
既困惑又激進——
00:35
confused and aggressive.
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00:36
The most tragic part of all
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最不幸的是
00:39
was that many of the victims
were children.
were children.
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許多受害者是孩子。
00:41
And of all of those that got sick,
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而所有生病的人
00:43
none survived.
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沒有一個能夠活下來。
00:46
It turned out that what was killing
people was a virus,
people was a virus,
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結果發現，造成死亡的是一種病毒，
00:49
but it wasn't Ebola, it wasn't Zika,
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但不是伊波拉，不是茲卡病毒，
00:51
it wasn't even some new virus
never before seen by science.
never before seen by science.
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甚至不是科學界聞所未聞的新病毒。
00:55
These people were dying
of an ancient killer,
of an ancient killer,
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殺死這些人的的，是我們數世紀前
就已經知道古老的殺手。
就已經知道古老的殺手。
00:57
one that we've known about for centuries.
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01:00
They were dying of rabies.
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他們死於狂犬病。
01:02
And what all of them had in common
was that as they slept,
was that as they slept,
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這些病人的共通點是，
當他們在睡覺時，
當他們在睡覺時，
01:06
they'd all been bitten by the only mammal
that lives exclusively on a diet of blood:
that lives exclusively on a diet of blood:
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他們都被一種哺乳類動物咬到，
它是唯一只靠吸血維生的
哺乳類動物：吸血蝙蝠。
哺乳類動物：吸血蝙蝠。
01:10
the vampire bat.
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01:13
These sorts of outbreaks
that jump from bats into people,
that jump from bats into people,
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這種疾病的爆發從蝙蝠延伸到人類，
01:16
they've become more and more common
in the last couple of decades.
in the last couple of decades.
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在過去幾十年間，變得越來越常見。
2003 年，是 SARS。
01:19
In 2003, it was SARS.
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01:20
It showed up in Chinese animal markets
and spread globally.
and spread globally.
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它出現在中國的動物市場上，
再散播到全球。
01:24
That virus, like the one from Peru,
was eventually traced back to bats,
was eventually traced back to bats,
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那種病毒，和秘魯的病毒一樣，
最終都可追溯回蝙蝠，
最終都可追溯回蝙蝠，
01:28
which have probably harbored it,
undetected, for centuries.
undetected, for centuries.
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病毒可能藏匿在蝙蝠身上
數個世紀，無法監測到，
數個世紀，無法監測到，
01:32
Then, 10 years later, we see Ebola
showing up in West Africa,
showing up in West Africa,
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接著，十年後，
我們發現伊波拉在西非出現，
01:36
and that surprised just about everybody
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幾乎讓所有人都大吃一驚，因為，
01:38
because, according
to the science at the time,
to the science at the time,
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根據那時的科學技術，
伊波拉根本不應該出現在西非。
伊波拉根本不應該出現在西非。
01:40
Ebola wasn't really supposed
to be in West Africa.
to be in West Africa.
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01:44
That ended up causing the largest
and most widespread Ebola outbreak
and most widespread Ebola outbreak
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最後造成了史上最大型、
散播最廣的伊波拉爆發流行。
01:47
in history.
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01:49
So there's a disturbing trend here, right?
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所以，這裡有種
讓人不安的趨勢，對吧？
讓人不安的趨勢，對吧？
致命病毒出現在
我們從未預期到的地方，
我們從未預期到的地方，
01:52
Deadly viruses are appearing in places
where we can't really expect them,
where we can't really expect them,
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我們這個全球健康共同體
完全跑不贏。
完全跑不贏。
01:56
and as a global health community,
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01:57
we're caught on our heels.
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01:59
We're constantly chasing
after the next viral emergency
after the next viral emergency
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我們經常在這個無限循環中
追逐下一個病毒緊急事件，
02:02
in this perpetual cycle,
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02:04
always trying to extinguish epidemics
after they've already started.
after they've already started.
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總是在流行已經爆發
之後再試圖滅火。
之後再試圖滅火。
02:08
So with new diseases appearing every year,
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因為每年有新疾病出現，
02:11
now is really the time
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現在該是我們想想要怎麼
處理這個狀況的時候了。
處理這個狀況的時候了。
02:13
that we need to start thinking
about what we can do about it.
about what we can do about it.
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若我們只是等著下一個伊波拉發生，
02:15
If we just wait for the next
Ebola to happen,
Ebola to happen,
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02:18
we might not be so lucky next time.
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我們下次可能不會這麼幸運。
我們可能會面對
不同的病毒，更致命的，
不同的病毒，更致命的，
02:20
We might face a different virus,
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02:22
one that's more deadly,
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02:23
one that spreads better among people,
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更容易在人類之間傳播的病毒，
02:26
or maybe one that just completely
outwits our vaccines,
outwits our vaccines,
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或者它就是比我們的疫苗更聰明，
02:29
leaving us defenseless.
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讓我們無法防禦。
02:31
So can we anticipate pandemics?
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所以，我們能預期流行病發生嗎？
02:34
Can we stop them?
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我們能阻止流行病嗎？
02:36
Those are really hard questions to answer,
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要答案這些問題真的很難，
02:39
and the reason is that the pandemics --
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原因是因為流行病——
02:42
the ones that spread globally,
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散播全球的那種流行病，
02:44
the ones that we really
want to anticipate --
want to anticipate --
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我們真的很想預期到的
那種流行病——
那種流行病——
02:46
they're actually really rare events.
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它們其實是相當罕見的事件。
02:48
And for us as a species
that is a good thing --
that is a good thing --
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對我們這個物種來說，這是好事——
02:50
that's why we're all here.
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因為這樣，我們才會在這裡。
02:53
But from a scientific standpoint,
it's a little bit of a problem.
it's a little bit of a problem.
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但從科學觀點來看，
似乎就有點問題了。
似乎就有點問題了。
02:58
That's because if something
happens just once or twice,
happens just once or twice,
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因為只發生一次、兩次的事件，
真的不足以推斷出模式。
03:01
that's really not enough
to find any patterns.
to find any patterns.
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而模式才能告訴我們，
下次流行病可能會在何時何地發生。
下次流行病可能會在何時何地發生。
03:03
Patterns that could tell us when
or where the next pandemic might strike.
or where the next pandemic might strike.
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03:08
So what do we do?
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所以，我們要怎麼做？
03:10
Well, I think one of the solutions
we may have is to study some viruses
we may have is to study some viruses
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我想，其中一個解決方案是，
我們可以研究一些病毒，
我們可以研究一些病毒，
03:14
that routinely jump from wild
animals into people,
animals into people,
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會例行性從野生動物
跳到人類身上的病毒，
跳到人類身上的病毒，
03:18
or into our pets, or our livestock,
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或者跳到我們的寵物或家畜身上，
03:21
even if they're not the same viruses
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即使這些病毒不見得和我們
認定將會造成流行的病毒一樣。
認定將會造成流行的病毒一樣。
03:23
that we think are going
to cause pandemics.
to cause pandemics.
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03:26
If we can use
those everyday killer viruses
those everyday killer viruses
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如果我們能使用一些日常的
殺手病毒來找出某些模式，
殺手病毒來找出某些模式，
03:28
to work out some of the patterns
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了解是什麼因子驅使它們做出
關鍵的初次跨物種跳躍，
關鍵的初次跨物種跳躍，
03:30
of what drives that initial, crucial jump
from one species to the next,
from one species to the next,
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03:34
and, potentially, how we might stop it,
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以及我們可能可以如何阻止它，
那麼我們就能做好更周全的準備，
03:36
then we're going to end up better prepared
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03:38
for those viruses that jump
between species more rarely
between species more rarely
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對抗那些比較少會在物種間跳躍的，
03:41
but pose a greater threat of pandemics.
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但若流行起來會
更具有威脅性的病毒。
更具有威脅性的病毒。
03:44
Now, rabies, as terrible as it is,
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狂犬病雖然很糟糕，
03:47
turns out to be a pretty nice
virus in this case.
virus in this case.
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但證明正是做這種研究的好病毒。
03:52
You see, rabies is a scary, deadly virus.
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狂犬病是可怕、致命的病毒。
03:55
It has 100 percent fatality.
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它的致死率是 100%。也就是，
03:57
That means if you get infected with rabies
and you don't get treated early,
and you don't get treated early,
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若你染上了狂犬病且不及早治療，
04:01
there's nothing that can be done.
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就沒辦法了。
04:02
There is no cure.
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無藥可救。
04:04
You will die.
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你會死。
04:06
And rabies is not just
a problem of the past either.
a problem of the past either.
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狂犬病也不只是過去的問題。
04:10
Even today, rabies still kills
50 to 60,000 people every year.
50 to 60,000 people every year.
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就算是現今，每年還是會有
五萬到六萬人死於狂犬病。
五萬到六萬人死於狂犬病。
04:16
Just put that number in some perspective.
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我們換個方式來看這個數字。
04:19
Imagine the whole West African
Ebola outbreak --
Ebola outbreak --
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想像整個西非的伊波拉爆發——
04:21
about two-and-a-half years;
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大約兩年半；
若你把那次爆發的所有死者
壓縮到僅僅一年。
壓縮到僅僅一年。
04:23
you condense all the people
that died in that outbreak
that died in that outbreak
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04:26
into just a single year.
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那相當糟糕。
04:27
That's pretty bad.
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04:28
But then, you multiply it by four,
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但，若把它乘以四，
04:30
and that's what happens
with rabies every single year.
with rabies every single year.
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那就是每年發生的狂犬病病例數量。
04:35
So what sets rabies apart
from a virus like Ebola
from a virus like Ebola
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所以，讓狂犬病和伊波拉
這類病毒有所不同的是，
這類病毒有所不同的是，
04:40
is that when people get it,
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人得到狂犬病時，
通常不會繼續散播它。
通常不會繼續散播它。
04:42
they tend not to spread it onward.
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04:44
That means that every single time
a person gets rabies,
a person gets rabies,
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意即，每當有人得到狂犬病，
04:48
it's because they were bitten
by a rabid animal,
by a rabid animal,
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都是因為被患有狂犬病的動物咬到，
04:51
and usually, that's a dog or a bat.
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通常是狗或蝙蝠。
04:53
But it also means that those jumps
between species,
between species,
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但，那也意味著，跨物種的傳播
04:56
which are so important to understand,
but so rare for most viruses,
but so rare for most viruses,
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雖然對大部分病毒而言都很罕見，
了解這類傳播卻很重要，
了解這類傳播卻很重要，
05:00
for rabies, they're actually
happening by the thousands.
happening by the thousands.
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對狂犬病來說，
它們會大批大批地傳播。
它們會大批大批地傳播。
05:04
So in a way, rabies
is almost like the fruit fly
is almost like the fruit fly
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在某種層面上，
狂犬病幾乎就像是果蠅，
狂犬病幾乎就像是果蠅，
05:08
or the lab mouse of deadly viruses.
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或者有致命病毒的實驗室老鼠。
05:11
This is a virus that we can use
and study to find patterns
and study to find patterns
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我們可以用這種病毒
來做研究，找出模式，
來做研究，找出模式，
05:15
and potentially test out new solutions.
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可能還能測試我們的解決方案。
05:17
And so, when I first heard
about that outbreak of rabies
about that outbreak of rabies
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所以，當我初次聽到狂犬病
在秘魯亞馬遜地區爆發時，
在秘魯亞馬遜地區爆發時，
05:20
in the Peruvian Amazon,
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05:22
it struck me as something
potentially powerful
potentially powerful
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我覺得它有很強大的力量，
05:24
because this was a virus that was jumping
from bats into other animals
from bats into other animals
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因為這種病毒能從蝙蝠
跳到其他動物身上，
跳到其他動物身上，
05:27
often enough that we might
be able to anticipate it ...
be able to anticipate it ...
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且頻率高到讓我們覺得
有可能可以預測……
有可能可以預測……
05:31
Maybe even stop it.
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甚至可以阻止它。
05:33
So as a first-year graduate student
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所以，在研究所的第一年，
05:35
with a vague memory
of my high school Spanish class,
of my high school Spanish class,
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只有高中西班牙文課的模糊記憶，
05:38
I jumped onto a plane
and flew off to Peru,
and flew off to Peru,
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我就跳上飛機，飛到秘魯，
05:41
looking for vampire bats.
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去尋找吸血蝙蝠。
05:42
And the first couple of years
of this project were really tough.
of this project were really tough.
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這個計畫的前幾年真的很辛苦。
05:48
I had no shortage of ambitious plans
to rid Latin America of rabies,
to rid Latin America of rabies,
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我不缺野心勃勃的計畫，
想幫拉丁美洲脫離狂犬病，
想幫拉丁美洲脫離狂犬病，
05:52
but at the same time,
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但同時，
05:53
there seemed to be an equally endless
supply of mudslides and flat tires,
supply of mudslides and flat tires,
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我似乎也永無止境地
遇到土石流、爆胎、
遇到土石流、爆胎、
05:57
power outages, stomach bugs
all stopping me.
all stopping me.
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電力中斷、腸胃炎，
這些都在阻撓我。
這些都在阻撓我。
06:01
But that was kind of par for the course,
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但那似乎就是在南美工作的常態，
06:03
working in South America,
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06:04
and to me, it was part of the adventure.
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對我來說，那是冒險的一部分。
06:08
But what kept me going
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但，我能持續走下去，
06:10
was the knowledge that for the first time,
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是因為知道，這是第一次，
06:12
the work that I was doing
might actually have some real impact
might actually have some real impact
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我所做的事可能真的會
在短期對別人的生活造成影響。
在短期對別人的生活造成影響。
06:15
on people's lives in the short term.
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最讓我有感的一次，
06:17
And that struck me the most
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06:18
when we actually went out to the Amazon
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是我們真的前往亞馬遜，
06:21
and were trying to catch vampire bats.
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試圖捕捉吸血蝙蝠。
06:23
You see, all we had to do was show up
at a village and ask around.
at a village and ask around.
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我們要做的很簡單：
到那裡去，到處打聽。
到那裡去，到處打聽。
06:27
"Who's been getting bitten
by a bat lately?"
by a bat lately?"
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「最近有誰被蝙蝠咬過？」
06:29
And people raised their hands,
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就會有人舉手，
06:31
because in these communities,
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因為，在那些部落中，
06:34
getting bitten by a bat
is an everyday occurrence,
is an everyday occurrence,
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被蝙蝠咬是常有的事，
每天都會發生。
每天都會發生。
06:36
happens every day.
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06:38
And so all we had to do
was go to the right house,
was go to the right house,
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我們要做的就是，找對房子，
06:41
open up a net
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張開一張網，
06:43
and show up at night,
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在晚上過去，
06:44
and wait until the bats tried
to fly in and feed on human blood.
to fly in and feed on human blood.
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等到蝙蝠嘗試飛進來吸人血。
對我來說，
06:49
So to me, seeing a child with a bite wound
on his head or blood stains on his sheets,
on his head or blood stains on his sheets,
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看到孩子在頭上有咬傷，
或者床單上有血跡，
06:54
that was more than enough motivation
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就已經是非常大的動力，
06:56
to get past whatever logistical
or physical headache
or physical headache
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讓我那天克服所有經歷到的
06:59
I happened to be feeling on that day.
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後勤上或身體上面的麻煩。
07:02
Since we were working
all night long, though,
all night long, though,
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不過，因為我們要整晚工作，
07:05
I had plenty of time to think about
how I might actually solve this problem,
how I might actually solve this problem,
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我有很多時間可以思考
我要如何解決這個問題，
我要如何解決這個問題，
07:08
and it stood out to me
that there were two burning questions.
that there were two burning questions.
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很明顯有兩個迫切的問題。
07:11
The first was that we know
that people are bitten all the time,
that people are bitten all the time,
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第一，我們知道大家常常被咬，
07:15
but rabies outbreaks
aren't happening all the time --
aren't happening all the time --
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但狂犬病並沒有常常爆發——
07:18
every couple of years,
maybe even every decade,
maybe even every decade,
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每幾年，可能甚至每十年，
07:20
you get a rabies outbreak.
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才會有一次狂犬病爆發。
07:22
So if we could somehow anticipate
when and where the next outbreak would be,
when and where the next outbreak would be,
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如果我們能預測
下次爆發的時間和地點，
下次爆發的時間和地點，
07:26
that would be a real opportunity,
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那就真的是個機會，
這意味著，我們能在有人死亡
之前就搶先給大家注射疫苗。
之前就搶先給大家注射疫苗。
07:27
meaning we could vaccinate
people ahead of time,
people ahead of time,
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07:30
before anybody starts dying.
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07:32
But the other side of that coin
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但，硬幣還有另一面，
07:34
is that vaccination
is really just a Band-Aid.
is really just a Band-Aid.
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疫苗只算得上是創可貼。
07:38
It's kind of a strategy of damage control.
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有點像是損害控制策略。
07:40
Of course it's lifesaving and important
and we have to do it,
and we have to do it,
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當然，這很重要，能拯救人命，
我們必須要去做，
我們必須要去做，
07:43
but at the end of the day,
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但，最終，
07:44
no matter how many cows,
how many people we vaccinate,
how many people we vaccinate,
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不論我們給多少頭牛、
多少個人疫苗，
多少個人疫苗，
07:47
we're still going to have exactly the same
amount of rabies up there in the bats.
amount of rabies up there in the bats.
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在蝙蝠當中的狂犬病
數目仍然一樣。
數目仍然一樣。
被咬的風險仍然沒有改變。
07:51
The actual risk of getting bitten
hasn't changed at all.
hasn't changed at all.
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所以，我的第二個問題是：
07:53
So my second question was this:
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07:55
Could we somehow
cut the virus off at its source?
cut the virus off at its source?
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我們能用某種方式
從源頭斬斷病毒嗎？
從源頭斬斷病毒嗎？
07:59
If we could somehow reduce the amount
of rabies in the bats themselves,
of rabies in the bats themselves,
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若我們有辦法減少
蝙蝠中的狂犬病數目，
蝙蝠中的狂犬病數目，
那就會帶來很大的改變。
08:02
then that would be a real game changer.
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08:04
We'd been talking about shifting
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我們一直在說轉變，
08:06
from a strategy of damage control
to one based on prevention.
to one based on prevention.
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從損害控制的策略，
轉變為預防性策略。
轉變為預防性策略。
08:10
So, how do we begin to do that?
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我們要如何開始著手？
08:13
Well, the first thing
we needed to understand
we needed to understand
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我們首先要了解
08:15
was how this virus actually works
in its natural host --
in its natural host --
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這種病毒在它的天然宿主——
即蝙蝠——身上是如何運作的。
即蝙蝠——身上是如何運作的。
08:18
in the bats.
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08:19
And that is a tall order
for any infectious disease,
for any infectious disease,
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對於任何感染性疾病，
這都是很困難的，
這都是很困難的，
08:21
particularly one in a reclusive
species like bats,
species like bats,
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特別是在像蝙蝠這種
隱遁的物種身上的疾病，
隱遁的物種身上的疾病，
08:25
but we had to start somewhere.
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但我們總得有個開始。
08:28
So the way we started
was looking at some historical data.
was looking at some historical data.
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所以，我們開始的方式，
是去研究一些歷史資料。
是去研究一些歷史資料。
08:31
When and where had these outbreaks
happened in the past?
happened in the past?
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過去的爆發是在
什麼時候、什麼地方？
什麼時候、什麼地方？
08:35
And it became clear
that rabies was a virus
that rabies was a virus
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漸漸發現，狂犬病病毒
必須要不斷移動。
08:37
that just had to be on the move.
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08:39
It couldn't sit still.
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它無法待著不動。
08:41
The virus might circulate in one area
for a year, maybe two,
for a year, maybe two,
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這種病毒可能會在一個地區
傳播一年或兩年，
傳播一年或兩年，
08:44
but unless it found a new group of bats
to infect somewhere else,
to infect somewhere else,
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但若它沒有在其他地方
找到新的一群蝙蝠來感染，
找到新的一群蝙蝠來感染，
08:47
it was pretty much bound to go extinct.
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它大致上就注定絕跡了。
08:50
So with that, we solved one key part
of the rabies transmission challenge.
of the rabies transmission challenge.
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因此，我們解決了狂犬病
傳播挑戰的一個關鍵部分。
傳播挑戰的一個關鍵部分。
08:55
We knew we were dealing
with a virus on the move,
with a virus on the move,
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我們知道我們在處理
不斷移動的病毒，
不斷移動的病毒，
08:58
but we still couldn't say
where it was going.
where it was going.
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但我們仍然不知道它會去哪裡。
09:01
Essentially, what I wanted was
more of a Google Maps-style prediction,
more of a Google Maps-style prediction,
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基本上，我希望能達成的是
一張類似 Google 地圖的預測圖，
一張類似 Google 地圖的預測圖，
09:05
which is, "What's
the destination of the virus?
the destination of the virus?
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也就是「病毒的目的地是哪裡？
09:07
What's the route it's going
to take to get there?
to take to get there?
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它會走什麼路線到目的地？
09:10
How fast will it move?"
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它的行進速度有多快？」
09:13
To do that, I turned
to the genomes of rabies.
to the genomes of rabies.
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為了達成這個目標，
我轉向狂犬病的基因組。
我轉向狂犬病的基因組。
09:17
You see, rabies, like many other viruses,
has a tiny little genome,
has a tiny little genome,
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狂犬病和其他病毒一樣，
都具有小小的基因組，
都具有小小的基因組，
09:21
but one that evolves
really, really quickly.
really, really quickly.
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但演化得非常非常快。
09:23
So quickly that by the time the virus
has moved from one point to the next,
has moved from one point to the next,
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快到當這種病毒從一個點
移動到下一個點時，
移動到下一個點時，
09:28
it's going to have picked up
a couple of new mutations.
a couple of new mutations.
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它就已經會出現好幾種新變種了。
09:31
And so all we have to do
is kind of connect the dots
is kind of connect the dots
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所以我們要做的就是
將演化樹上的各點連起來，
09:33
across an evolutionary tree,
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09:35
and that's going to tell us
where the virus has been in the past
where the virus has been in the past
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那樣就能得知這種病毒過去在何處，
及它在陸地上如何散播分佈。
09:38
and how it spread across the landscape.
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09:40
So, I went out and I collected cow brains,
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所以，我跑去收集了母牛的大腦，
09:44
because that's where
you get rabies viruses.
you get rabies viruses.
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因為在那裡可以取得狂犬病病毒。
09:47
And from genome sequences that we got
from the viruses in those cow brains,
from the viruses in those cow brains,
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從那些母牛大腦中的，
我們取得了病毒的基因組序列，
讓我能夠發現這種病毒
每年會散播十到二十英里。
每年會散播十到二十英里。
09:52
I was able to work out
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09:53
that this is a virus that spreads
between 10 and 20 miles each year.
between 10 and 20 miles each year.
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09:57
OK, so that means we do now have
the speed limit of the virus,
the speed limit of the virus,
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所以，那表示我們現在
知道了這種病毒的速限，
知道了這種病毒的速限，
10:01
but still missing that other key part
of where is it going in the first place.
of where is it going in the first place.
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但還少了一項關鍵資訊：
它起初是打算要去哪裡。
它起初是打算要去哪裡。
10:06
For that, I needed to think
a little bit more like a bat,
a little bit more like a bat,
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為了了解這一點，
我得像蝙蝠一樣思考，
我得像蝙蝠一樣思考，
10:10
because rabies is a virus --
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因為狂犬病病毒不會自己移動，
10:12
it doesn't move by itself,
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要靠蝙蝠宿主來移動它，
10:13
it has to be moved around by its bat host,
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10:16
so I needed to think about
how far to fly and how often to fly.
how far to fly and how often to fly.
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所以我得要思考飛行距離和頻率。
10:20
My imagination didn't get me
all that far with this
all that far with this
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在這方面，我的想像力
沒有太大的幫助，
沒有太大的幫助，
10:23
and neither did little digital trackers
that we first tried putting on bats.
that we first tried putting on bats.
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放在蝙蝠身上的小型
數位追蹤器也幫不上忙。
數位追蹤器也幫不上忙。
就是無法取得我們需要的資訊。
10:26
We just couldn't get
the information we needed.
the information we needed.
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所以，我們轉向
開始研究蝙蝠的交配模式。
開始研究蝙蝠的交配模式。
10:29
So instead, we turned
to the mating patterns of bats.
to the mating patterns of bats.
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10:32
We could look at certain parts
of the bat genome,
of the bat genome,
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我們可以去研究蝙蝠
基因組中的某些部分，
基因組中的某些部分，
10:34
and they were telling us that some
groups of bats were mating with each other
groups of bats were mating with each other
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那些部分告訴我們，
有些蝙蝠族群會和彼此交配，
有些蝙蝠族群會和彼此交配，
其他的則比較孤離。
10:37
and others were more isolated.
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10:39
And the virus was basically following
the trail laid out by the bat genomes.
the trail laid out by the bat genomes.
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而病毒基本上是遵循著
蝙蝠基因組留下的路徑痕跡。
蝙蝠基因組留下的路徑痕跡。
10:44
Yet one of those trails stood out
as being a little bit surprising --
as being a little bit surprising --
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但，其中有一條路徑很特別，
有點讓人吃驚——
有點讓人吃驚——
10:48
hard to believe.
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甚至難以相信。
10:50
That was one that seemed to cross
straight over the Peruvian Andes,
straight over the Peruvian Andes,
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這條路徑似乎是
直接穿越安地斯山脈，
直接穿越安地斯山脈，
10:53
crossing from the Amazon
to the Pacific coast,
to the Pacific coast,
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從亞馬遜一路穿越到太平洋海岸，
10:56
and that was kind of hard to believe,
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那有點讓人吃驚，
10:58
as I said,
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我說過，因為
安地斯山脈相當高——
大約兩萬兩千英呎，
大約兩萬兩千英呎，
11:01
because the Andes are really tall --
about 22,000 feet,
about 22,000 feet,
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11:04
and that's way too high
for a vampire to fly.
for a vampire to fly.
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吸血蝙蝠無法在那種高度飛行。
11:08
Yet --
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但——（笑聲）
11:09
(Laughter)
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當我們更仔細研究，
我們發現，在秘魯北邊
我們發現，在秘魯北邊
11:10
when we looked more closely,
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11:11
we saw, in the northern part of Peru,
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11:13
a network of valley systems
that was not quite too tall
that was not quite too tall
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有一個谷系網路，不會太高，
11:17
for the bats on either side
to be mating with each other.
to be mating with each other.
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讓任何一邊的蝙蝠都能和彼此交配。
11:20
And we looked a little bit more closely --
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我們再更仔細研究——
11:22
sure enough, there's rabies
spreading through those valleys,
spreading through those valleys,
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在那些山谷中有狂犬病在散播，
11:24
just about 10 miles each year.
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大約每年十英里。
11:26
Basically, exactly as our evolutionary
models had predicated it would be.
models had predicated it would be.
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基本上和我們用演化模型
做出的預測一樣。
做出的預測一樣。
11:30
What I didn't tell you
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我沒有告訴各位的是，
這一點其實還蠻重要的，
這一點其實還蠻重要的，
11:31
is that that's actually
kind of an important thing
kind of an important thing
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11:34
because rabies had never been seen before
on the western slopes of the Andes,
on the western slopes of the Andes,
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因為過去從來沒有在
安地斯山脈的西坡上發現狂犬病，
安地斯山脈的西坡上發現狂犬病，
11:37
or on the whole Pacific coast
of South America,
of South America,
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在南美的整個太平洋
海岸上也都沒有，
海岸上也都沒有，
11:40
so we were actually witnessing,
in real time, a historical first invasion
in real time, a historical first invasion
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所以，我們其實正在
即時見證史上第一次
即時見證史上第一次
11:44
into a pretty big part of South America,
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對南美很大一塊地區發動的侵略，
11:47
which raises the key question:
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這就引到了關鍵問題：
「對此，我們要如何是好？」
「對此，我們要如何是好？」
11:49
"What are we going to do about that?"
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11:51
Well, the obvious short-term
thing we can do is tell people:
thing we can do is tell people:
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很顯然，在短期內，
我們能做的是告訴大家：
我們能做的是告訴大家：
11:55
you need to vaccinate yourselves,
vaccinate your animals;
vaccinate your animals;
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你們得要給自己
及你們的寵物注射疫苗；
及你們的寵物注射疫苗；
11:57
rabies is coming.
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狂犬病要來了。
11:59
But in the longer term,
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但就長期來說，
12:00
it would be even more powerful
if we could use that new information
if we could use that new information
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更強大的方式是我們利用那些資訊
12:04
to stop the virus
from arriving altogether.
from arriving altogether.
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讓病毒連到來的機會都沒有。
12:07
Of course, we can't just tell bats,
"Don't fly today,"
"Don't fly today,"
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當然，我們不能直接告訴
蝙蝠說「今天不要飛」，
蝙蝠說「今天不要飛」，
12:11
but maybe we could stop the virus
from hitching a ride along with the bat.
from hitching a ride along with the bat.
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但也許我們可以阻止
病毒搭蝙蝠的便車。
病毒搭蝙蝠的便車。
12:16
And that brings us to the key lesson
that we have learned
that we have learned
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那就要帶到我們所學到的關鍵一課，
12:19
from rabies-management programs
all around the world,
all around the world,
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這一課來自世界各地的
狂犬病管理計畫，
狂犬病管理計畫，
12:22
whether it's dogs, foxes,
skunks, raccoons,
skunks, raccoons,
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不論是狗、狐狸、臭鼬、浣熊、
12:26
North America, Africa, Europe.
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北美、非洲、歐洲。
12:29
It's that vaccinating the animal source
is the only thing that stops rabies.
is the only thing that stops rabies.
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這一課就是：唯有針對動物源頭
施打疫苗才能阻止狂犬病。
施打疫苗才能阻止狂犬病。
12:34
So, can we vaccinate bats?
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所以，我們能為蝙蝠施打疫苗嗎？
12:38
You hear about vaccinating dogs
and cats all the time,
and cats all the time,
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各位常常聽到幫貓狗施打疫苗，
12:41
but you don't hear too much
about vaccinating bats.
about vaccinating bats.
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但應該很少聽到幫蝙蝠施打疫苗。
12:44
It might sound like a crazy question,
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這個問題可能聽起來很瘋狂，
12:46
but the good news is that we actually
already have edible rabies vaccines
already have edible rabies vaccines
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但好消息是，
我們其實已經有了食用狂犬病疫苗，
12:51
that are specially designed for bats.
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且專門為蝙蝠設計。
12:54
And what's even better
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更好的是，
12:55
is that these vaccines
can actually spread from bat to bat.
can actually spread from bat to bat.
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這些疫苗還能從蝙蝠散播給蝙蝠。
13:00
All you have to do is smear it on one
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只需要讓一隻蝙蝠帶有疫苗，
13:02
and let the bats' habit
of grooming each other
of grooming each other
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蝙蝠會照料彼此的習慣
自然就會幫你做完剩下的工作。
自然就會幫你做完剩下的工作。
13:05
take care of the rest of the work for you.
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13:07
So that means, at the very least,
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那就表示，至少，
13:09
we don't have to be out there vaccinating
millions of bats one by one
millions of bats one by one
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我們不需要用迷你注射器
去幫數百萬隻蝙蝠
一隻一隻地施打疫苗。
一隻一隻地施打疫苗。
13:12
with tiny little syringes.
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13:14
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:15
But just because we have that tool
doesn't mean we know how to use it.
doesn't mean we know how to use it.
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但，我們有工具，並不表示
我們知道如何使用它。
我們知道如何使用它。
13:19
Now we have a whole laundry
list of questions.
list of questions.
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現在我們列出了一大堆問題。
13:21
How many bats do we need to vaccinate?
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我們要為幾隻蝙蝠施打疫苗？
13:23
What time of the year
do we need to be vaccinating?
do we need to be vaccinating?
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一年當中的什麼時期
需要施打疫苗？
需要施打疫苗？
13:26
How many times a year
do we need to be vaccinating?
do we need to be vaccinating?
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一年中要施打疫苗幾次？
13:30
All of these are questions
that are really fundamental
that are really fundamental
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如果要推出任何疫苗計畫，
上述這些問題都是非常基本的，
13:32
to rolling out any sort
of vaccination campaign,
of vaccination campaign,
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但我們無法在實驗室中
回答這些問題。
回答這些問題。
13:34
but they're questions
that we can't answer in the laboratory.
that we can't answer in the laboratory.
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所以，我們改採用了
一種比較活潑的做法。
一種比較活潑的做法。
13:37
So instead, we're taking
a slightly more colorful approach.
a slightly more colorful approach.
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13:41
We're using real wild bats,
but fake vaccines.
but fake vaccines.
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我們用真正的野生蝙蝠，
但疫苗是假的。
但疫苗是假的。
13:45
We use edible gels that make bat hair glow
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我們採用會讓蝙蝠的毛
發光的食用膠，
發光的食用膠，
13:48
and UV powders that spread between
bats when they bump into each other,
bats when they bump into each other,
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搭配 UV 粉末，當蝙蝠碰見
彼此時會在牠們之間散播，
彼此時會在牠們之間散播，
13:51
and that's letting us study
how well a real vaccine might spread
how well a real vaccine might spread
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這樣，我們就能研究真正的疫苗
在蝙蝠的這些野生居住地中
是否能理想地散播出去。
是否能理想地散播出去。
13:54
in these wild colonies of bats.
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13:57
We're still in the earliest
phases of this work,
phases of this work,
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我們還在這項工作的最初階段，
14:00
but our results so far
are incredibly encouraging.
are incredibly encouraging.
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但目前為止我們的結果
十分讓人振奮。
十分讓人振奮。
14:03
They're suggesting that using
the vaccines that we already have,
the vaccines that we already have,
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結果顯示，用我們已有的疫苗，
14:06
we could potentially drastically reduce
the size of rabies outbreaks.
the size of rabies outbreaks.
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就有可能將狂犬病
爆發的規模大大降低。
爆發的規模大大降低。
14:10
And that matters, because as you remember,
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這真的很重要，如果各位記得，
14:13
rabies is a virus that always
has to be on the move,
has to be on the move,
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狂犬病是一種必須要
一直移動的病毒，
一直移動的病毒，
14:16
and so every time we reduce
the size of an outbreak,
the size of an outbreak,
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所以，每當我們減少爆發的規模，
14:19
we're also reducing the chance
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我們也是在減少
14:20
that the virus makes it
onto the next colony.
onto the next colony.
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病毒成功到達下一個
居住地的可能性。
居住地的可能性。
14:23
We're breaking a link
in the chain of transmission.
in the chain of transmission.
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我們在打破傳播鏈中的一個環節。
14:26
And so every time we do that,
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所以，每當我們這麼做，
14:27
we're bringing the virus
one step closer to extinction.
one step closer to extinction.
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就是讓這種病毒
朝絕跡再邁進一步。
朝絕跡再邁進一步。
14:30
And so the thought, for me,
of a world in the not-too-distant future
of a world in the not-too-distant future
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所以，對我來說，
一想到在不久的將來
14:35
where we're actually talking
about getting rid of rabies altogether,
about getting rid of rabies altogether,
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我們能真正談論
一勞永逸地擺脫狂犬病，
一勞永逸地擺脫狂犬病，
14:38
that is incredibly
encouraging and exciting.
encouraging and exciting.
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我就覺得非常振奮和興奮。
14:41
So let me return to the original question.
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所以，讓我回到最初的問題。
14:43
Can we prevent pandemics?
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我們能預防流行病嗎？
14:46
Well, there is no silver-bullet
solution to this problem,
solution to this problem,
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沒有萬靈丹可以解決這個問題，
14:50
but my experiences with rabies
have left me pretty optimistic about it.
have left me pretty optimistic about it.
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但我的這些狂犬病經驗
讓我對此很樂觀。
讓我對此很樂觀。
14:54
I think we're not too far from a future
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我想，在不久的將來，
14:56
where we're going to have genomics
to forecast outbreaks
to forecast outbreaks
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我們會有基因組學來預測爆發，
14:59
and we're going to have clever
new technologies,
new technologies,
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我們也會有聰明的新技術，
15:02
like edible, self-spreading vaccines,
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比如可食用、自我散播的疫苗，
15:05
that can get rid of these
viruses at their source
viruses at their source
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可以從源頭擺脫這些病毒，
15:07
before they have a chance
to jump into people.
to jump into people.
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讓它們根本沒有機會
跳躍到人類身上。
跳躍到人類身上。
15:10
So when it comes to fighting pandemics,
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所以，在對抗流行病方面，
15:13
the holy grail is just to get
one step ahead.
one step ahead.
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聖杯就是「超前一步」。
15:16
And if you ask me,
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如果要問我，我想，
行得通的方法之一，
行得通的方法之一，
15:17
I think one of the ways
that we can do that
that we can do that
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就是利用我們目前已有的
一些問題，比如狂犬病——
一些問題，比如狂犬病——
15:19
is using some of the problems
that we already have now,
that we already have now,
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15:22
like rabies --
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有點像是太空人會用飛行模擬艙，
15:23
sort of the way an astronaut
might use a flight simulator,
might use a flight simulator,
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來想出什麼會有用、什麼不會，
建立我們的工具組，
建立我們的工具組，
15:26
figuring out what works and what doesn't,
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15:28
and building up our tool set
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15:29
so that when the stakes are high,
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這麼一來，當風險高時，
我們就不是盲目飛行。
我們就不是盲目飛行。
15:31
we're not flying blind.
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15:32
Thank you.
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謝謝。
15:34
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Streicker - Animal-borne disease researcherDaniel Streicker investigates how everyday killer pathogens can provide insight into future outbreaks of infectious disease.
Why you should listen
Daniel Streicker uses ecology and evolution to reveal, anticipate and prevent infectious disease transmission between species. His research uses a range of approaches including longitudinal field studies in wild bats, phylodynamics, machine learning, metagenomicsand epidemiological modeling. In Peru, Streicker uses bat and virus genetics to connect bats' movements with the spread of rabies virus. With this technique, he and his team are able to forecast outbreaks before they begin, providing valuable lead times for governments to take preventative actions, such as vaccinating humans and livestock ahead of outbreaks.
Streicker is a Wellcome Trust senior research fellow and head of the Streicker Group at the University of Glasgow Institute of Biodiversity, Animal Health & Comparative Medicine and the MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research.
Daniel Streicker | Speaker | TED.com