TED@State
Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset
Hans Rosling: Dopustite da moj set podataka promijeni vaš način razmišljanja
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Govoreći u State Departmentu ljetos, Hans Rosling koristi svoj fascinantni softver koji koristi mjehuriće, kako bi razbio ukorijenjene predrasude o zemljama u razvoju. Pogledajte nove analize Kine i svijeta nakon finansijske pomoći, u kombinaciji sa klasičnom prezentacijom podataka.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset.
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Govoriću o vašem načinu razmišljanja.
00:20
Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
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Da li vaš način razmišljanja odgovara podacima koje imam?
00:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:25
If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
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Ako ne, jedno ili drugo treba unaprijediti, zar ne?
00:28
When I talk to my students about global issues,
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Kada svojim studentima govorim o globalnim pitanjima,
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee break,
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i kada ih slušam u pauzama za kafu,
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
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oni uvijek govore o 'nama' i 'njima'.
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture room
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I kada se vrate u salu za predavanja
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
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pitam ih: "Šta želite reći sa 'mi' i 'oni' ?"
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.
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"Oh, to je bar lako. Postoji zapadni svijet i zemlje u razvoju", kažu oni.
00:45
"We learned it in college."
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"To smo naučili u koledžu."
00:47
And what is the definition then? "The definition?
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I šta je onda definicija? "Definicija?
00:49
Everyone knows," they say.
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Pa to svi znaju", kažu oni.
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
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"Pa onda znate i vi", uporno insistiram.
00:53
So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.
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Jedna djevojka pametno reče: "To je veoma jednostavno.
00:55
Western world is a long life in a small family.
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Zapadni svijet znači dug život i mala porodica.
00:58
Developing world is a short life in a large family."
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Zemlje u razvoju znače kratak život i velika porodica."
01:01
And I like that definition, because it enabled me
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I meni se svidjela ta definicija, jer mi je omogućila
01:04
to transfer their mindset
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da prenesem njihovo mišljenje
01:06
into the dataset.
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u bazu podataka.
01:08
And here you have the dataset.
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I ovdje je set podataka.
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
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Možete vidjeti da je na ovoj osi
01:12
is size of family. One, two, three, four, five
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veličina porodice. Jedno, dvoje, troje, četvoro, petoro
01:15
children per woman on this axis.
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djece za svaku ženu na ovoj osi.
01:17
And here, length of life, life expectancy,
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A ovdje je prikazan očekivani životni vijek,
01:19
30, 40, 50.
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30, 40, 50.
01:21
Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
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Upravo ono što su studenti govorili da opisuje njihov koncept svijeta.
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom.
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A zapravo ovdje se govori o spavaonici.
01:27
Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,
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Da li su muškarac i žena odlučili da imaju malu porodicu
01:31
and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
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i brinu o svojoj djeci, te koliko dugo će živjeti.
01:34
It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,
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Ovdje se radi o kupatilu i kuhinji. Ako imate sapun, vodu i hranu, znate,
01:38
you can live long.
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možete živjeti dugo.
01:40
And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --
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I studenti su bili u pravu. Nije da se svijet sastoji --
01:42
the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,
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svijet se sastoji, od jedne grupe zemalja ovdje,
01:46
which had large families and short life. Developing world.
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koje imaju velike porodice i kratak životni vijek. Svijet u razvoju.
01:50
And we had one set of countries up there
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Zatim, tu je jedna grupa zemalja ovdje
01:53
which was the western world.
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koja predstavlja zapadni svijet.
01:55
They had small families and long life.
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Oni imaju male porodice i dug životni vijek.
01:58
And you are going to see here
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I sada ćete ovdje vidjeti
02:00
the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
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nešto zapanjujuće što se dogodilo u svijetu za vrijeme mog života.
02:04
Then the developing countries applied
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Tada su zemlje u razvoju primijenile
02:06
soap and water, vaccination.
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sapun i vodu, vakcinaciju.
02:08
And all the developing world started to apply family planning.
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I cijeli svijet u razvoju je počeo planirati porodicu.
02:11
And partly to USA who help to provide
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I djelimično zbog SAD-u koji pomaže u davanju
02:13
technical advice and investment.
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tehničkih savjeta i investicija.
02:16
And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,
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Vidite da se cijeli svijet se pomjera prema porodicama sa dvoje djece
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years.
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i životnom vijeku od 60 do 70 godina.
02:23
But some countries remain back in this area here.
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Ipak neke zemlje zaostaju u ovoj oblasti ovdje.
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
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Još uvijek možete vidjeti Afganistan ovdje dolje.
02:29
We have Liberia. We have Congo.
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Imamo Liberiju. Imamo Kongo.
02:32
So we have countries living there.
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Znači imamo zemlje koje tu žive.
02:34
So the problem I had
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Tako da je moj problem bio taj,
02:36
is that the worldview that my students had
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da je pogled na svijet mojih studenata
02:40
corresponds to reality in the world
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odgovarao stvarnosti u svijetu u godini
02:42
the year their teachers were born.
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kada su njihovi učitelji rođeni.
02:45
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:48
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:51
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
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I u stvari, kada smo prezentirali ovo širom svijeta --
02:54
I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,
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Bio sam na Globalnoj konferenciji ovdje u Washingtonu prošle nedjelje,
02:57
and I could see the wrong concept
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i mogao sam vidjeti pogrešan koncept
03:00
even active people in United States had,
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koji su čak i aktivni ljudi u Sjedinjenim državama imali,
03:03
that they didn't realize the improvement
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koji nisu uvidjeli napredak
03:06
of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
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Meksika ovdje i Kine u poređenju sa Sjedinjenim državama.
03:11
Look here when I move them forward.
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Pogledajte sada kada ih pomjerim unaprijed.
03:13
Here we go.
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Idemo.
03:20
They catch up. There's Mexico.
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Približavaju se. Ovdje je Meksiko.
03:23
It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
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Izjednačen je sa Sjedinjenim državama u dvije socijalne dimenzije.
03:26
There was less than five percent
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Manje od pet procenata specijalista
03:28
of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.
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u Svjetskom zdravstvu je bilo svjesno ovog.
03:31
This great nation, Mexico,
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Ova sjajna država, Meksiko,
03:33
has the problem that arms are coming from North,
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imala je problem oružja koje je stizalo sa sjevera,
03:36
across the borders, so they had to stop that,
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preko granice, tako da su to morali zaustaviti,
03:38
because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
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jer imaju taj čudni odnos sa Sjedinjenim državama, kao što znate.
03:42
But if I would change this axis here,
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Ali ako bih promijenio ovu osu ovdje,
03:46
I would instead put income per person.
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radije bih ubacio dohodak po osobi.
03:49
Income per person. I can put that here.
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Dohodak po osobi, mogu to ubaciti ovdje.
03:52
And we will then see
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I tada ćemo vidjeti
03:54
a completely different picture.
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potpuno drugačiju sliku.
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching you
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Usput, učim vas
03:58
how to use our website, Gapminder World,
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kako da koristite našu web stranicu Gapminder World,
04:00
while I'm correcting this,
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dok ja ovo korigujem,
04:02
because this is a free utility on the net.
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jer je ovo besplatan alat na internetu.
04:05
And when I now finally got it right,
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I kada sam to konačno popravio,
04:08
I can go back 200 years in history.
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mogu otići 200 godina nazad u istoriju.
04:12
And I can find United States up there.
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I mogu pronaći Sjedinjene države ovdje.
04:16
And I can let the other countries be shown.
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I mogu dopustiti da se prikažu i ostale države.
04:19
And now I have income per person on this axis.
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I sada ovdje imam dohodak po osobi na ovoj osi.
04:22
And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.
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Sjedinjene države su imale samo jednu do dvije hiljade dolara u to vrijeme.
04:25
And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,
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I očekivani životni vijek bio je 35 do 40 godina,
04:29
on par with Afghanistan today.
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isto kao u Afganistanu danas.
04:31
And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
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Šta se dogodilo u svijetu, sada ću pokazati.
04:36
This is instead of studying history
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Ovo je umjesto jedne godine
04:38
for one year at university.
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studiranja istorije na univerzitetu.
04:40
You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.
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Možete me gledati jedan minut i vidjećete sve.
04:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:45
You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,
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Možete vidjeti smeđe mjehuriće, to je zapadna Evropa,
04:50
and the yellow one, which is the United States,
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i žuti, to su Sjedinjene države,
04:53
they get richer and richer and also
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oni postaju bogatiji i bogatiji i takođe
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start to get healthier and healthier.
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postaju zdraviji i zdraviji.
04:57
And this is now 100 years ago,
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Ovo je prije 100 godina,
04:59
where the rest of the world remains behind.
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dok ostatak svijeta zaostaje.
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza.
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Sad smo tu. I ovo je bila gripa.
05:07
That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?
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To je ono čega se jako plašimo, zar ne?
05:10
It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
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Još uvijek je u sjećanju. Pad očekivanog životnog vijeka.
05:13
And then we come up. Not until
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I zatim se penjemo. Ne prije
05:16
independence started.
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početka nezavisnosti.
05:18
Look here You have China over there,
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Pogledajte ovdje Kinu,
05:20
you have India over there,
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i ovdje Indiju,
05:22
and this is what has happened.
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i ovo je to što se desilo.
05:30
Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?
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Jeste li primijetili da je Meksiko ovdje gore?
05:33
Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,
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Meksiko uopšte nije u istoj ravni sa Sjedinjenim državama,
05:35
but they are quite close.
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ali su prilično blizu.
05:37
And especially, it's interesting to see
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I posebno je zanimljivo vidjeti
05:39
China and the United States
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Kinu i Sjedinjene države
05:41
during 200 years,
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tokom 200 godina,
05:44
because I have my oldest son now working for Google,
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jer moj najstariji sin sada radi za Google,
05:46
after Google acquired this software.
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nakon što je Google kupio ovaj software.
05:49
Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet
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Zapravo, ovo je rad djece. Moj sin i njegova žena su bili u pozadini
05:52
for many years and developed this.
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mnogo godina i razvili su ovo.
05:54
And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
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I moj namlađi sin, koji studira kineski u Pekingu.
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?
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Oni dakle dolaze sa dvije perspektive koje imam, znate?
06:02
And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,
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I moj najmlađi sin koji studira u Pekingu,
06:04
in China, he got a long-term perspective.
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u Kini, dobio je dugoročnu perspektivu.
06:08
Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,
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Dok moj najstariji sin, koji radi za Google,
06:10
he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
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bi trebalo da je razvije za kvartal ili za pola godine.
06:14
Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
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Ili Google je veoma širokogrud, tako da može imati još godinu ili dvije.
06:17
But in China they look generation after generation
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Ali u Kini gledaju generaciju za generacijom
06:19
because they remember
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jer se sjećaju
06:22
the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,
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sramotnog perioda, tokom 100 godina,
06:24
when they went backwards.
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kada su išli unazad.
06:26
And then they would remember the first part
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Tada bi se sjetili prvog dijela
06:29
of last century, which was really bad,
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prošlog vijeka, koji je bio veoma loš,
06:32
and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.
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i mogli bismo ići ovim takozvanim 'Velikim zamahom naprijed'.
06:35
But this was 1963.
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Ali ovo je bila 1963.
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,
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Ipak je na kraju, Mao Tse-Tung uveo zdravlje u Kinu
06:41
and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started
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i zatim umro. Tada je počeo Deng Xiaoping
06:43
this amazing move forward.
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ovaj zapanjujući pomak unaprijed.
06:45
Isn't it strange to see that the United States
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Zar nije čudno vidjeti da su Sjedinjene države
06:47
first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?
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prvo izgradile ekonomiju i tek zatim se postepeno obogatile?
06:51
Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,
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Dok je Kina puno ranije mogla postati zdrava,
06:54
because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,
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jer su primijenili znanje iz obrazovanja, ishrane,
06:58
and then also benefits of penicillin
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i takođe koristi od penicilina,
07:01
and vaccines and family planning.
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vakcina i planiranja porodice.
07:03
And Asia could have social development
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I Azija je mogla imati socijalni razvoj
07:06
before they got the economic development.
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prije nego što su dostigli ekonomski razvoj.
07:09
So to me, as a public health professor,
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Tako da meni, kao profesoru javnog zdravstva,
07:11
it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
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nije čudno da sve ove zemlje sada nastavljaju brzi rast.
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
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Jer ono što vidite ovdje, ono što vidite,
07:17
is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,
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je ravni svijet Thomasa Friedmana,
07:20
isn't it.
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zar ne?
07:22
It's not really, really flat.
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Zaista nije ravan.
07:24
But the middle income countries --
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Ali zemlje sa srednjim dohotkom --
07:26
and this is where I suggest to my students,
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i ovdje sugeriram svojim studentima,
07:28
stop using the concept "developing world."
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da prestanu korištenje koncepta 'zemlje u razvoju'.
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing world
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Jer nakon svega, govoreći o svijetu u razvoju
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
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je kao imati dva poglavlja u istoriji Sjedinjenih država.
07:38
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,
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Posljednje poglavlje je o sadašnjosti i predsjedniku Obami,
07:42
and the other is about the past,
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a drugo je o prošlosti,
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington
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koja pokriva sve od Washingtona
07:46
to Eisenhower.
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do Eisenhowera.
07:48
Because Washington to Eisenhower,
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Jer od Washingtona do Eisenhowera,
07:50
that is what we find in the developing world.
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je ono što nalazimo u svijetu u razvoju.
07:52
We could actually go to Mayflower
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Mogli bismo zapravo otići od Mayflowera
07:54
to Eisenhower,
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do Eisenhowera,
07:56
and that would be put together into a developing world,
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stavljeno zajedno u svijet u razvoju,
07:59
which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,
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koji razvija gradove na zapanjujući način,
08:02
which have great entrepreneurs,
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koji ima sjajne poduzetnike,
08:04
but also have the collapsing countries.
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ali takođe ima i propale države.
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
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Ali kako da bolje razumijemo ovo?
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could
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Jedan način je da pokušamo da vidimo može li se
08:13
look at income distribution.
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posmatrati raspodjela dohotka.
08:15
This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,
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Ovo je distribucija dohotka u svijetu,
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food to eat.
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od jednog dolara. Ovo je gdje imate hranu za jelo.
08:21
These people go to bed hungry.
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Ovi ljudi idu gladni u krevet.
08:23
And this is the number of people.
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A ovo je broj ljudi.
08:25
This is $10, whether you have a public or a private
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Ovo je 10 dolara, bez obzira imate li javni ili privatni
08:27
health service system. This is where you can
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sistem zdravstvene zaštite. Ovdje možete
08:29
provide health service for your family and school for your children,
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osigurati zdravlje za svoju porodicu i školovanje za svoju djecu,
08:32
and this is OECD countries:
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a ovo su OECD zemlje:
08:34
Green, Latin America, East Europe.
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Zelene, Latinska Amerika, Istočna Evropa.
08:36
This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
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Ovo je Istočna Azija, i svijetlo plava je Južna Azija.
08:40
And this is how the world changed.
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I ovako se svijet promijenio.
08:43
It changed like this.
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Ovako se promijenio.
08:45
Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions
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Možete li vidjeti kako raste? I kako stotine miliona
08:48
and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
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i milijardi izlazi iz siromaštva u Aziji?
08:51
And it goes over here?
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I ide ovdje?
08:53
And I come now, into projections,
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I sada ulazim u projekcije,
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --
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ali moram stati na vratima Lehman Brothers-a ovdje, jer, vidite --
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:01
that's where the projections are not valid any longer.
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tu projekcije više nisu validne.
09:03
Probably the world will do this.
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Vjerovatno će svijet uraditi ovo
09:05
and then it will continue forward like this.
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i nastaviće ovako.
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen,
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Ali manje-više, to će se desiti,
09:10
and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
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i imamo svijet koji više ne možemo posmatrati kao podijeljen.
09:15
We have the high income countries here,
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Imamo zemlje sa visokim dohotkom ovdje,
09:17
with the United States as a leading power;
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sa Sjedinjenim državama kao vodećom snagom;
09:20
we have the emerging economies in the middle,
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imamo ekonomije u nastajanju u sredini,
09:23
which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;
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koje će osigurati mnogo sredstava za izlazak iz krize;
09:25
and we have the low income countries here.
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i imamo zemlje sa niskim dohotkom ovdje.
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,
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Da, činjenica je da odatle dolazi novac.
09:31
they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
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oni su štedjeli, znate, tokom posljednje dekade.
09:33
And here we have the low income countries
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I ovdje imamo zemlje niskog dohotka
09:35
where entrepreneurs are.
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gdje su poduzetnici.
09:37
And here we have the countries in collapse and war,
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I ovdje imamo zemlje u propadanju i ratovima,
09:40
like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
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kao Afganistan, Somalija, dijelovi Konga, Darfur.
09:45
We have all this at the same time.
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Sve ovo imamo istovremeno.
09:47
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened
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Zato je problematično opisati šta se dogodilo
09:49
in the developing world.
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u zemljama u razvoju.
09:51
Because it's so different, what has happened there.
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Jer je tako različito, to što se tamo događalo.
09:53
And that's why I suggest
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I zato ja sugerišem
09:55
a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
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malo drugačiji pristup od onoga kako biste ga nazvali.
09:58
And you have huge differences within countries also.
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Takođe postoje i velike razlike unutar zemalja.
10:02
I heard that your departments here were by regions.
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Vaši odjeli ovdje su regioni.
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,
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Ovdje imate Subsaharsku Afriku, Južnu Aziju,
10:08
East Asia, Arab states,
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Istočnu Aziju, Arapske države,
10:10
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
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Istočnu Evropu, Latinsku Ameriku, i OECD.
10:12
And on this axis, GDP.
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I na ovoj osi dohodak.
10:14
And on this, heath, child survival,
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A na ovoj, zdravlje, preživljavanje djece
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
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i nije iznenađenje
10:18
that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
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da je na dnu Afrika i jug Sahare.
10:21
But when I split it, when I split it
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Ali kada ih podijelim
10:23
into country bubbles,
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na mjehuriće po zemljama,
10:25
the size of the bubbles here is the population.
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veličina mjehurića ovdje predstavlja populaciju.
10:28
Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.
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Vidite da su Sierra Leone i Mauritius, potpuno drugačiji.
10:31
There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Ovdje je takva razlika unutar Subsaharske Afrike.
10:33
And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,
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Mogu podijeliti i ostale. Ovdje je Južna Azija,
10:36
Arab world.
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Arapski svijet.
10:38
Now all your different departments.
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Sada svi vaši različiti odjeli.
10:40
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
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Istočna Evropa, Latinska Amerika, i OECD zemlje.
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
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I ovdje smo. Imamo kontinuum u svijetu.
10:46
We cannot put it into two parts.
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Ne možemo ga podijeliti na dva dijela.
10:48
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,
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Mayflower je ovdje. Washington je ovdje,
10:51
building, building countries.
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gradeći, gradeći države.
10:53
It's Lincoln here, advancing them.
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Lincoln je ovdje, unapređuje ih.
10:57
It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
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To je Eisenhower koji donosi modernizaciju u države.
11:00
And then it's United States today, up here.
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A ovo su Sjedinjene države danas, ovdje gore.
11:02
And we have countries all this way.
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I tako imamo države.
11:04
Now, this is the important thing
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Ovo je važno
11:07
of understanding how the world has changed.
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u razumijevanju kako se svijet promijenio.
11:11
At this point I decided to make a pause.
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Na ovom mjestu sam odlučio napraviti pauzu.
11:15
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:17
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,
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I moj zadatak je, u ime ostatka svijeta,
11:20
to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,
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da prenesem zahvalnost poreskim obveznicima u SAD-u
11:24
for Demographic Health Survey.
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za Demografsku anketu o zdravlju.
11:26
Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.
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Mnogi ne znaju za nju -- ne, ovo nije šala.
11:29
This is very serious.
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Ovo je veoma ozbiljno.
11:31
It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring
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Zahvaljujući neprekidnom sponzorstvu SAD-a
11:35
during 25 years of the very good methodology
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tokom 25 godina primjene veoma dobre metodologije
11:38
for measuring child mortality
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za mjerenje stope smrtnosti djece,
11:40
that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.
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sada imamo uvid u to što se dešava u svijetu.
11:43
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
11:50
And it is U.S. government at its best,
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To je vlada SAD-a u najboljem svjetlu,
11:53
without advocacy, providing facts,
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bez propagande, prezentira činjenice
11:56
that it's useful for the society.
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koje su korisne za društvo.
11:58
And providing data free of charge
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I omogućava slobodan i besplatan pristup podacima
12:01
on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
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na internetu, dostupan cijelom svijetu. Hvala vam mnogo.
12:04
Quite the opposite of the World Bank,
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Što je suprotno praksi Svjetske banke,
12:06
who compiled data with government money,
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koja sastavlja podatke koristeći novac vlade,
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
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poreskih obveznika i onda ih prodaje uz mali profit,
12:12
in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.
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na veoma neefikasan, Gutenbergov način.
12:15
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
12:21
But the people doing that at the World Bank
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Ali ljudi koji to rade u Svjetskoj banci
12:23
are among the best in the world.
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su među najboljima u svijetu.
12:25
And they are highly skilled professionals.
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I oni su veoma sposobni stručnjaci.
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies
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Mi samo želimo unaprijediti naše međunarodne agencije
12:31
to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.
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da se bave svijetom na moderan način, kao mi.
12:34
And when it comes to free data and transparency,
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I kada govorimo o besplatnim podacima i transparentnosti,
12:37
United States of America is one of the best.
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Sjedinjene Američke države su među najboljima.
12:40
And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
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To nije lako izgovoriti jednom švedskom profesoru javnog zdravstva.
12:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:46
And I'm not paid to come here, no.
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I nisam plaćen za dolazak ovdje, ne.
12:49
I would like to show you what happens with the data,
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Želim da vam pokažem šta se dešava sa podacima,
12:51
what we can show with this data.
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šta sve možemo pokazati sa ovim podacima.
12:53
Look here. This is the world.
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Pogledajte. Ovo je svijet.
12:55
With income down there and child mortality.
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Sa prihodom ovdje dolje i smrtnošću djece ovdje.
12:57
And what has happened in the world?
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I šta se dogodilo sa svijetom?
12:59
Since 1950, during the last 50 years
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Od 1950., tokom posljednjih 50 godina
13:02
we have had a fall in child mortality.
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imamo pad smrtnosti djece.
13:05
And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
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I zahvaljujući DHS-u imamo priliku to vidjeti.
13:07
And we had an increase in income.
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I imali smo porast prihoda.
13:09
And the blue former developing countries
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I plave bivše zemlje u razvoju
13:11
are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
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se miješaju sa bivšim industrijaliziranim zemljama zapadnog svijeta.
13:16
We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,
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Imamo kontinuum. Ali još uvijek, naravno,
13:19
Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries
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imamo Kongo ovdje gore. Imamo siromašne zemlje
13:22
as we have had, always, in history.
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kao što smo uvijek u istoriji imali.
13:26
And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today
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I ovo je milijarda na dnu, danas smo čuli
13:29
about a completely new approach to do it.
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o potpuno novom pristupu tome.
13:32
And how fast has this happened?
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I koliko brzo se ovo desilo?
13:35
Well, MDG 4.
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Pa, MDG 4 (milenijumski cilj za smanjenje smrtnosti djece).
13:37
The United States has not been so eager
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Sjedinjene države nisu baš tako željne
13:39
to use MDG 4.
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da koriste MDG 4.
13:42
But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,
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Ali vi ste bili najvažniji sponzor koji je omogućio da ga mjerimo,
13:45
because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.
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jer je jedino smrtnost djece to što možemo mjeriti.
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
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I govorili smo da treba da pada 4 posto godišnje.
13:51
Let's see what Sweden has done.
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Pogledajmo šta je uradila Švedska.
13:53
We used to boast about fast social progress.
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Ponosili smo se brzim socijalnim napretkom.
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
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Bili smo ovdje 1900.
13:58
1900, Sweden was there.
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Švedska je bila ovdje 1900.
14:00
Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,
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Istu stopu smrtnosti djece imao je Bangladeš 1990.,
14:02
though they had lower income.
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iako su imali niži dohodak.
14:04
They started very well. They used the aid well.
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Oni su dobro započeli. Dobro su iskoristili pomoć.
14:07
They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.
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Vakcinisali su djecu. Poboljšali su vodosnadbijevanje.
14:09
And they reduced child mortality,
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I smanjili su smrtnost djece,
14:11
with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.
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sa stopom od zapanjujućih 4,7 posto godišnje. Prestigli su Švedsku.
14:14
I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
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Pomjeram Švedsku kroz isti period od 16 godina.
14:18
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,
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Druga runda, ovo je Švedska 1916.
14:20
against Egypt, 1990.
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protiv Egipta 1990.
14:22
Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.
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Idemo. Još jednom su Sjedinjene države djelimičan razlog ovdje.
14:25
They get safe water, they get food for the poor,
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Dobili su sigurniju vodu, hranu za siromašne,
14:29
and they get malaria eradicated.
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i iskorijenili su malariju.
14:31
5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
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5,5 posto. Brži su od milenijumskog razvojnog cilja.
14:34
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.
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I treća šansa za Švedsku, protiv Brazila ovdje.
14:37
Brazil here has amazing social improvement
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Ovdje Brazil ima sjajan socijalni napredak
14:41
over the last 16 years,
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u posljednjih 16 godina,
14:43
and they go faster than Sweden.
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i oni su brži od Švedske.
14:45
This means that the world is converging.
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To znači da se svijet ide ka jednog tački.
14:47
The middle income countries,
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Zemlje sa srednjim dohotkom,
14:49
the emerging economy, they are catching up.
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ekonomije u razvoju, one se sustižu.
14:51
They are moving to cities,
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Oni se pomjeraju prema gradovima,
14:53
where they also get better assistance for that.
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gdje takođe dobijajaju bolju pomoć za to.
14:55
Well the Swedish students protest at this point.
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Na ovom mjestu su Švedski studenti protestvovali.
14:58
They say, "This is not fair,
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Rekli su: "To nije fer,
15:00
because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics
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jer ove zemlje su imale vakcine i antibiotike
15:02
that were not available for Sweden.
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koji nisu dostupni u Švedskoj.
15:04
We have to do real-time competition."
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Treba da napravimo realističnu konkurenciju."
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.
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U redu. Dajem vam Singapur, u godini mog rođenja.
15:09
Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.
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Singapur je imao dvostruko veću stopu smrtnosti djece od Švedske.
15:11
It's the most tropical country in the world,
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To je najtropskija zemlja na svijetu,
15:13
a marshland on the equator.
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u vlažnoj zoni na ekvatoru.
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.
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I sada idemo. Trebalo im je malo vremena da dobiju nezavisnost.
15:18
But then they started to grow their economy.
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Nakon toga su počeli graditi svoju ekonomiju.
15:20
And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.
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Napravili su socijalne investicije. Iskorijenili su malariju.
15:22
They got a magnificent health system
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Napravili su odličan sistem zdravstva
15:24
that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.
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bolji i od američkog i od švedskog.
15:26
We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!
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Nikad ne bismo pomislili da će pobijediti Švedsku!
15:29
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
15:37
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.
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Sve ove zelene zemlje dostižu milenijumske razvojne ciljeve.
15:40
These yellow are just about to be doing this.
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Žute su na putu da to učine.
15:42
These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.
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Ove crvene zemlje to ne rade i politike se moraju unaprijediti.
15:45
Not simplistic extrapolation.
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Nema jednostavne ekstrapolacije.
15:48
We have to really find a way
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Moramo zaista pronaći način
15:50
of supporting those countries in a better way.
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da se ove zemlje podrže na bolji način.
15:52
We have to respect the middle income countries
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Moramo poštovati zemlje sa srednjim dohotkom
15:55
on what they are doing.
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zbog toga što rade.
15:57
And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
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I moramo zasnovati na činjenicama način na koji gledamo na svijet.
16:00
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.
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Ovo je dolar po osobi. Ovo je HIV u zemljama.
16:03
The blue is Africa.
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Ovo plavo je Afrika.
16:05
The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.
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Veličina mjehurića pokazuje koliko ima pogođenih HIV-om.
16:08
You see the tragedy in South Africa there.
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Vidite tragediju u Južnoj Africi ovdje.
16:10
About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.
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Oko 20 procenata populacije je zaraženo.
16:13
And in spite of them having quite a high income,
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I uprkos tome što imaju prilično visok dohodak,
16:16
they have a huge number of HIV infected.
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imaju veliki broj inficiranih HIV-om.
16:19
But you also see that there are African countries down here.
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Ali ovdje dolje takođe vidite da ima afričkih zemalja,
16:22
There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.
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gdje ne postoji nešto kao epidemija HIV-a.
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa
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Postoji broj, 5 do 10 zemalja u Africi
16:29
that has the same level as Sweden and United States.
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koje imaju isti nivo kao Švedska i Sjedinjene države.
16:32
And there are others who are extremely high.
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A tu su i države koje imaju ekstremno visok nivo HIV-a.
16:34
And I will show you that what has happened
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I pokazaću vam šta se dogodilo
16:37
in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy
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u jednoj od najboljih država, sa živom ekonomijim
16:41
in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.
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u Africi, sa dobrom upravom, Botswani.
16:44
They have a very high level. It's coming down.
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Imaju visok nivo koji se smanjuje.
16:46
But now it's not falling,
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Ali sada ne pada,
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFAR,
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jer tamo, uz pomoć PEPFAR-a,
16:50
it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.
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postoji tretman. I ljudi ne umiru.
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy,
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I možete vidjeti da to nije jednostavno,
16:56
that it is war which caused this.
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to je rat prouzrokovao.
16:59
Because here, in Congo, there is war.
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Jer ovdje, u Kongu, je rat.
17:01
And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
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A ovdje u Zambiji, je mir.
17:04
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.
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I nije u pitanju ekonomija. Bogatija zemlja ima malo više.
17:07
If I split Tanzania in its income,
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Ako podijelim Tanzaniju po dohotku,
17:09
the richer 20 percent in Tanzania
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bogatijih 20 procenata u Tanzaniji,
17:11
has more HIV than the poorest one.
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ima više HIV-a nego oni siromašniji.
17:13
And it's really different within each country.
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I to je zaista različito od zemlje do zemlje.
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.
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Pogledajte pokrajine Kenije. One su veoma različite.
17:18
And this is the situation you see.
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I ovo je situacija koju vidite.
17:21
It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,
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Nije duboko siromaštvo. To je posebna situacija,
17:24
probably of concurrent sexual partnership
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vjerovatno istovremenih seksualnih veza
17:27
among part of the heterosexual population
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u dijelu heteroseksualne populacije
17:30
in some countries, or some parts of countries,
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u nekim zemljama, ili dijelovima zemalja,
17:32
in south and eastern Africa.
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u južnoj i istočnoj Africi.
17:34
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.
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Nemojte to smatrati pitanjem Afrike. Nemojte to činiti rasnim pitanjem.
17:37
Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,
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Učinite to lokalnim pitanjem. Djelujte preventivno na svakom mjestu,
17:41
in the way it can be done there.
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onako kako se to može uraditi ovdje.
17:43
So to just end up,
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Tako da završim,
17:46
there are things of suffering
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među milijardom najsiromašnijih
17:49
in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.
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postoje patnje, za koje ne znamo.
17:52
Those who live beyond the cellphone,
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Oni koji žive bez mobitela,
17:54
those who have yet to see a computer,
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oni koji nikad nisu vidjeli kompjuter,
17:56
those who have no electricity at home.
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oni koji nemaju električnu energiju u kućama.
17:59
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years
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Ovo je bolest Konzo, proveo sam 20 godina
18:01
elucidating in Africa.
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objašnjavajući je u Africi.
18:03
It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.
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Uzrokovana je brzim spremanjem otrovnog korijena manioke u slučaju gladi.
18:08
It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.
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Slična je epidemiji pelagre u Mississippiju tridesetih godina.
18:12
It's similar to other nutritional diseases.
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Slična je drugim bolestima ishrane.
18:15
It will never affect a rich person.
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Nikad ne pogađa bogate.
18:17
We have seen it here in Mozambique.
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Vidjeli smo je u Mozambiku.
18:20
This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.
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Ovo je epidemija u Mozambiku. Ovo je epidemija u sjevernoj Tanzaniji.
18:23
You never heard about the disease.
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Nikad niste čuli za ovu bolest.
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola
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Ali u poređenju sa ebolom,
18:27
that has been affected by this disease.
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ona je pogodila više ljudi.
18:29
Cause crippling throughout the world.
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Uzrokuje sakaćenja širom svijeta.
18:31
And over the last two years,
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I u protekle dvije godine
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
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dvije hiljade ljudi je osakaćeno
18:35
in the southern tip of Bandundu region.
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u južnom kraju Budundu regiona.
18:37
That used to be the illegal diamond trade,
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Bila je to ilegalna trgovina dijamantima,
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.
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iz regije u kojoj vlada UNITA u Angoli.
18:42
That has now disappeared,
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Sada je to nestalo
18:44
and they are now in great economic problem.
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i oni su u velikim ekonomskim problemima.
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
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Prošle sedmice, po prvi put,
18:49
there were four lines on the Internet.
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tamo su bile četiri linije na internetu.
18:52
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies
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Nemojte miješati progres ekonomija u razvoju
18:55
and the great capacity
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i veliki kapacitet
18:58
of people in the middle income countries
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ljudi u zemljama sa srednjim dohotkom
19:00
and in peaceful low income countries.
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i mirnih zemalja sa niskim dohotkom.
19:02
There is still mystery in one billion.
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Još uvijek postoji misterija jedne milijarde.
19:04
And we have to have more concepts
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I moramo imati više koncepata
19:06
than just developing countries and developing world.
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nego samo zemlje u razvoju.
19:09
We need a new mindset. The world is converging,
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Potreban nam je novi način razmišljanja. Svijet konvergira
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.
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ali - ali ne i milijarda sa dna.
19:15
They are still as poor as they've ever been.
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Oni su još uvijek siromašni kao što su uvijek i bili.
19:18
It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.
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To nije održivo i neće se dogoditi oko jedne supersile.
19:23
But you will remain
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Ali vi ćete ostati
19:25
one of the most important superpowers,
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jedna od najvažnijih supersila,
19:28
and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.
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i jedna od najperspektivnijih supersila, za sada.
19:31
And this institution
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I ova institucija
19:33
will have a very crucial role,
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će imati ključnu ulogu,
19:35
not for United States, but for the world.
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ne za Sjedinjene države, nego za svijet.
19:37
So you have a very bad name,
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Imate veoma neprikladno ime,
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
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State Department (državni odjel). To nije State Department.
19:42
It's the World Department.
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To je World departmetnt (svjetski odjel).
19:44
And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.
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I gledamo u vas s nadom. Hvala mnogo.
19:46
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com