TED@State
Hans Rosling: Let my dataset change your mindset
Lubage mu andmestikul muuta oma hoiakuid.
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Sel suvel Ameerika Ühendriikide välisministeeriumis kõnet pidades kasutas Hans Rosling põnevat andmemulli-tarkvara, purustamaks müüte arengumaade kohta. Järgnev on segu uuest analüüsist Hiina ning võlajärgse Kolmanda Maailma kohta ja klassikalisest infoesitlusest.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I'm going to talk about your mindset.
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Ma kavatsen rääkida teie hoiakutest.
00:20
Does your mindset correspond to my dataset?
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Kas teie hoiakud vastavad minu andmestikule?
00:24
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
00:25
If not, one or the other needs upgrading, isn't it?
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Kui ei, siis vajab üks või teine uuendamist, eks ole?
00:28
When I talk to my students about global issues,
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Kui ma kõnelen oma tudengitega globaalsetel teemadel
00:32
and I listen to them in the coffee break,
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ning kuulan neid kohvipausi ajal,
00:34
they always talk about "we" and "them."
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räägivad nad alati "meist" ja "neist".
00:37
And when they come back into the lecture room
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Tagasi loenguruumi tulles
00:40
I ask them, "What do you mean with "we" and "them"?
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küsin neilt: "Mida te silmas peate, öeldes "meie" ja "nemad"?"
00:42
"Oh, it's very easy. It's the western world and it's the developing world," they say.
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"Väga lihtne. On Läänemaailm ja on arengumaad," vastavad nad.
00:45
"We learned it in college."
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"Me oleme seda ülikoolis õppinud."
00:47
And what is the definition then? "The definition?
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Ja kuidas kõlaks definitsioon? "Definitsioon?
00:49
Everyone knows," they say.
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Igaüks teab seda," ütlevad nad.
00:51
But then you know, I press them like this.
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Aga ma käin neile peale.
00:53
So one girl said, very cleverly, "It's very easy.
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Üks tüdruk ütles väga nutikalt: "Väga lihtne.
00:55
Western world is a long life in a small family.
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Läänemaailm on pikk eluiga väikses perekonnas.
00:58
Developing world is a short life in a large family."
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Arengumaad on lühike eluiga suures perekonnas."
01:01
And I like that definition, because it enabled me
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Mulle meeldib see definitsioon, sest see võimaldas mul
01:04
to transfer their mindset
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paigutada nende hoiakud
01:06
into the dataset.
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konkreetsesse andmestikku.
01:08
And here you have the dataset.
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Ja siin te seda andmestikku näetegi.
01:10
So, you can see that what we have on this axis here
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Nagu näete, on sellel teljel siin
01:12
is size of family. One, two, three, four, five
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perekonna suurus. Üks, kaks, kolm, neli, viis
01:15
children per woman on this axis.
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last ühe naise kohta.
01:17
And here, length of life, life expectancy,
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Ja siin - elu pikkus, keskmine eluiga.
01:19
30, 40, 50.
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30, 40, 50.
01:21
Exactly what the students said was their concept about the world.
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Täpselt see, mis tudengite sõnade järgi on nende arusaam maailmast.
01:25
And really this is about the bedroom.
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Küsimus on õieti magamistoas -
01:27
Whether the man and woman decide to have small family,
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kas mees ja naine tahavad väikest perekonda
01:31
and take care of their kids, and how long they will live.
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ja laste eest hoolitseda ja kui kaua nad elavad.
01:34
It's about the bathroom and the kitchen. If you have soap, water and food, you know,
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Küsimus on vannitoas ja köögis. Kui sul on seepi, vett ja toitu,
01:38
you can live long.
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siis on sul võimalus elada kaua.
01:40
And the students were right. It wasn't that the world consisted --
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Tudengitel oli õigus. Mitte selles, et maailm koosneb
01:42
the world consisted here, of one set of countries over here,
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ühest komplektist riikidest siin,
01:46
which had large families and short life. Developing world.
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kus on suured perekonnad ja lühike eluiga - arengumaad -
01:50
And we had one set of countries up there
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ja teisest komplektist riikidest seal üleval,
01:53
which was the western world.
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mis on Läänemaailm,
01:55
They had small families and long life.
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kellel on väikesed perekonnad ja pikk eluiga.
01:58
And you are going to see here
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Ja nüüd te näete hämmastavat tõsiasja,
02:00
the amazing thing that has happened in the world during my lifetime.
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mis on maailmas juhtunud minu eluea jooksul.
02:04
Then the developing countries applied
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Sel ajal võtsid arengumaad kasutusele
02:06
soap and water, vaccination.
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seebi ja vee, vaktsiini,
02:08
And all the developing world started to apply family planning.
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ja kogu kolmas maailm hakkas rakendama pereplaneerimist.
02:11
And partly to USA who help to provide
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Osalt aitas ka USA, pakkudes
02:13
technical advice and investment.
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tehnilist nõu ning investeeringuid.
02:16
And you see all the world moves over to a two child family,
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Ja nagu näete, kogu maailm liigub kahelapselise pere poole,
02:20
and a life with 60 to 70 years.
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kus inimese eluiga on 60-70 aastat.
02:23
But some countries remain back in this area here.
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Aga mõned riigid jäävad ikkagi arengust maha -
02:26
And you can see we still have Afghanistan down here.
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siin on meil endiselt Afganistan,
02:29
We have Liberia. We have Congo.
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Libeeria, Kongo.
02:32
So we have countries living there.
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Nii et neid maid siiski veel on.
02:34
So the problem I had
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Minu probleem oli see,
02:36
is that the worldview that my students had
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et mu tudengite maailmavaade
02:40
corresponds to reality in the world
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vastas reaalsusele
02:42
the year their teachers were born.
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sellel aastal, mil nende õpetajad sündisid.
02:45
(Laughter)
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(naer)
02:48
(Applause)
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(aplaus)
02:51
And we, in fact, when we have played this over the world.
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Ja jälgides seda muutust üle kogu maailma -
02:54
I was at the Global Health Conference here in Washington last week,
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näiteks olin eelmisel nädalal ülemaailmsel tervisekonverentsil Washingtonis
02:57
and I could see the wrong concept
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ja nägin, et see vale arusaam
03:00
even active people in United States had,
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on sügavalt juurdunud isegi asjaga tegelevate inimeste seas USA-s.
03:03
that they didn't realize the improvement
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Nad ei mõistnud, kuivõrd on olukord paranenud
03:06
of Mexico there, and China, in relation to United States.
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Mehhikos ja Hiinas, võrreldes USA-ga.
03:11
Look here when I move them forward.
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Vaadake nüüd, kui ma neid ajas edasi nihutan.
03:13
Here we go.
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Niiviisi.
03:20
They catch up. There's Mexico.
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Nad jõuavad järele. Seal on Mehhiko.
03:23
It's on par with United States in these two social dimensions.
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Neis kahes sotsiaaldimensioonis on ta USA-ga võrdväärne.
03:26
There was less than five percent
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Vähem kui viis protsenti
03:28
of the specialists in Global Health that was aware of this.
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ülemaailmse tervise spetsialistidest olid sellest teadlikud.
03:31
This great nation, Mexico,
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Seda suurt rahvast, Mehhikot,
03:33
has the problem that arms are coming from North,
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ähvardavad põhjast üle piiride tulevad jõud.
03:36
across the borders, so they had to stop that,
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Nii et nad pidid selle ära lõpetama.
03:38
because they have this strange relationship to the United States, you know.
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Sest nagu te teate, on neil USA-ga küllalt kummaline suhe.
03:42
But if I would change this axis here,
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Aga kui ma muudaksin seda telge siin
03:46
I would instead put income per person.
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ja muudaksin selle ühe inimese sissetulekuks -
03:49
Income per person. I can put that here.
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ma sisestan selle siia, sissetulek ühe inimese kohta -
03:52
And we will then see
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siis me näeme
03:54
a completely different picture.
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täiesti teist pilti.
03:56
By the way, I'm teaching you
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Muuseas, ma õpetan teid
03:58
how to use our website, Gapminder World,
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kasutama meie veebilehte, Gapminder World.
04:00
while I'm correcting this,
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Miks ma seda parandan?
04:02
because this is a free utility on the net.
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Sest see on tasuta programm internetis.
04:05
And when I now finally got it right,
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Ja kui ma viimaks sain kõik õigesti paika,
04:08
I can go back 200 years in history.
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võin ma minna ajaloos 200 aastat tagasi.
04:12
And I can find United States up there.
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Siit ülevalt leian ma USA.
04:16
And I can let the other countries be shown.
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Ma saan näidata teisi riike.
04:19
And now I have income per person on this axis.
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Nüüd on mul teljel sissetulek ühe inimese kohta.
04:22
And United States only had some, one, two thousand dollars at that time.
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USA-s oli see tol ajal umbes ainult 2000 dollarit.
04:25
And the life expectancy was 35 to 40 years,
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Keskmine eluiga oli 35-40 aastat,
04:29
on par with Afghanistan today.
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sama, mis Afganistanil täna.
04:31
And what has happened in the world, I will show now.
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Nüüd näitan, mis on maailmas juhtunud.
04:36
This is instead of studying history
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See asendab aastapikkust
04:38
for one year at university.
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ajaloo õppimist ülikoolis.
04:40
You can watch me for one minute now and you'll see the whole thing.
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Te võite jälgida mind ühe minuti jooksul ja näete kõik ära.
04:43
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
04:45
You can see how the brown bubbles, which is west Europe,
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Näete, kuidas pruunid mullid - Lääne-Euroopa -
04:50
and the yellow one, which is the United States,
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ja kollane mull - Ameerika Ühendriigid -
04:53
they get richer and richer and also
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saavad järjest rikkamaks ja rikkamaks
04:55
start to get healthier and healthier.
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ning nende tervis muutub paremaks ja paremaks.
04:57
And this is now 100 years ago,
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See on 100 aastat tagasi.
04:59
where the rest of the world remains behind.
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Samal ajal, kui kogu ülejäänud maailm jääb maha.
05:02
Here we come. And that was the influenza.
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Sel ajal võttis maad Hispaania gripp.
05:07
That's why we are so scared about flu, isn't it?
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Sellepärast me ju kardamegi nii väga viiruseid?
05:10
It's still remembered. The fall of life expectancy.
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Seda mäletatakse siiani. Keskmise eluea lühenemine.
05:13
And then we come up. Not until
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Siin see jälle tõuseb. Ja mitte enne
05:16
independence started.
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iseseisvuse saavutamist.
05:18
Look here You have China over there,
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Siin on Hiina
05:20
you have India over there,
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ja siin on India.
05:22
and this is what has happened.
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Juhtus nii.
05:30
Did you note there, that we have Mexico up there?
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Märkate, et siin üleval on Mehhiko -
05:33
Mexico is not at all on par with the United States,
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ta ei ole USA-ga veel sugugi võrdne,
05:35
but they are quite close.
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aga nad on üsna lähestikku.
05:37
And especially, it's interesting to see
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Eriti huvitav on näha
05:39
China and the United States
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Hiinat ja USA-d
05:41
during 200 years,
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kahesaja aasta jooksul.
05:44
because I have my oldest son now working for Google,
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Mu vanem poeg töötab Google'is,
05:46
after Google acquired this software.
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sellest ajast saadik, kui Google omandas selle tarkvara.
05:49
Because in fact, this is child labor. My son and his wife sat in a closet
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See on nagu lapse sünnitamine. Mu poeg ja ta naine istusid
05:52
for many years and developed this.
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palju aastaid kapis ja arendasid seda välja.
05:54
And my youngest son, who studied Chinese in Beijing.
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Ja mu noorem poeg õppis Pekingis hiina keelt.
05:58
So they come in with the two perspectives I have, you know?
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Nii et nende kaudu ristuvad kaks erinevat perspektiivi, mis mul on.
06:02
And my son, youngest son who studied in Beijing,
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Mu noorem poeg, see, kes Hiinas, Pekingis õppis,
06:04
in China, he got a long-term perspective.
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töötab pikaajalise perspektiiviga,
06:08
Whereas when my oldest son, who works for Google,
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samas kui vanem poeg, kes töötab Google'is,
06:10
he should develop by quarter, or by half-year.
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tegutseb kvartali või poolaasta kaupa.
06:14
Or Google is quite generous, so he can have one or two years to go.
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Samas Google on üsna helde, nii et võib-olla on tema kasutuses aasta või paar.
06:17
But in China they look generation after generation
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Aga Hiinas vaadatakse asju põlvkondade kaupa,
06:19
because they remember
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sest nad mäletavad
06:22
the very embarrassing period, for 100 years,
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väga piinlikku saja-aastast perioodi,
06:24
when they went backwards.
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mil nad läksid arengus tagasi.
06:26
And then they would remember the first part
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Neile tuleb ühtlasi meelde sajandi esimene pool,
06:29
of last century, which was really bad,
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mis oli päris halb.
06:32
and we could go by this so-called Great Leap Forward.
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Ja siis tuleb nii-öelda suur hüpe edasi.
06:35
But this was 1963.
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Aga aasta oli 1963.
06:37
Mao Tse-Tung eventually brought health to China,
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Mao Zedong tõi lõpuks Hiinasse tervise
06:41
and then he died, and then Deng Xiaoping started
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ja siis suri. Aga seejärel algatas Deng Xiaoping
06:43
this amazing move forward.
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hämmastava edasise arengu.
06:45
Isn't it strange to see that the United States
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Kas pole kummaline näha, et USA
06:47
first grew the economy, and then gradually got rich?
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ehitas kõigepealt üles majanduse ja rikastus siis järk-järgult,
06:51
Whereas China could get healthy much earlier,
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samas kui Hiina võis palju varem tervist parandada,
06:54
because they applied the knowledge of education, nutrition,
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sest nad kasutasid teadmisi haridusest, toitumisest
06:58
and then also benefits of penicillin
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ja ühtlasi ka penitsilliini, vaktsiinide
07:01
and vaccines and family planning.
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ja pereplaneerimise hüvesid.
07:03
And Asia could have social development
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Aasia oleks võinud läbi teha ühiskondliku arengu
07:06
before they got the economic development.
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enne majandusliku arenguni jõudmist.
07:09
So to me, as a public health professor,
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Nii et minu kui tervisekaitse professori jaoks
07:11
it's not strange that all these countries grow so fast now.
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pole sugugi veider, et kõik need riigid nüüd nii kiiresti arenevad.
07:15
Because what you see here, what you see here
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Sest siin te näete
07:17
is the flat world of Thomas Friedman,
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Thomas Friedmani lamedat maailma.
07:20
isn't it.
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Kas pole?
07:22
It's not really, really flat.
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See pole tegelikult nii lame,
07:24
But the middle income countries --
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aga siin on keskmise sissetulekuga riigid -
07:26
and this is where I suggest to my students,
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ja sel kohal soovitan ma oma tudengitel
07:28
stop using the concept "developing world."
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lakata kasutamast kontseptsiooni "arengumaadest".
07:31
Because after all, talking about the developing world
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Sest lõppeks on arengumaadest rääkimine sama hea,
07:34
is like having two chapters in the history of the United States.
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kui jagada USA ajalugu kaheks peatükiks.
07:38
The last chapter is about present, and president Obama,
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Viimane peatükk oleks olevikust ja president Obamast
07:42
and the other is about the past,
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ja esimene minevikust,
07:44
where you cover everything from Washington
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mis katab kõike Washingtonist
07:46
to Eisenhower.
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Eisenhowerini.
07:48
Because Washington to Eisenhower,
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Areng Washingtonist Eisenhowerini
07:50
that is what we find in the developing world.
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on sarnane sellele, mida näeme arengumaades.
07:52
We could actually go to Mayflower
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Sama hästi võiks see periood olla Mayflowerist
07:54
to Eisenhower,
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Eisenhowerini
07:56
and that would be put together into a developing world,
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kusjuures me liigitaksime riigi kuuluvaks arengumaailma,
07:59
which is rightly growing its cities in a very amazing way,
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kus linnad kasvavad hämmastava kiirusega,
08:02
which have great entrepreneurs,
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kus on tohutud ettevõtted,
08:04
but also have the collapsing countries.
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aga ühtlasi ka kokkuvarisevad riigid.
08:07
So, how could we make better sense about this?
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Nii et kuidas me võiksime seda paremini mõista?
08:10
Well, one way of trying is to see whether we could
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Üks viis on proovida vaadata
08:13
look at income distribution.
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sissetuleku jaotust.
08:15
This is the income distribution of peoples in the world,
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See on maailma rahvaste sissetuleku jaotus
08:18
from $1. This is where you have food to eat.
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allates ühest dollarist. See tähendab, et sul on süüa.
08:21
These people go to bed hungry.
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Need inimesed lähevad näljasena magama.
08:23
And this is the number of people.
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See on inimeste arv.
08:25
This is $10, whether you have a public or a private
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See on kümme dollarit - kas sul on avalik tervishoiusüsteem
08:27
health service system. This is where you can
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või erakindlustusel põhinev. Sellega võimaldad
08:29
provide health service for your family and school for your children,
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oma perele tervisekindlustuse ning lastele koolituse.
08:32
and this is OECD countries:
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Ja need on OECD riigid.
08:34
Green, Latin America, East Europe.
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Roheline - Ladina-Ameerika, siis Ida-Euroopa,
08:36
This is East Asia, and the light blue there is South Asia.
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Ida-Aasia, ja helesinine on Lõuna-Aasia.
08:40
And this is how the world changed.
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Ja kuidas maailm on muutunud.
08:43
It changed like this.
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Niimoodi.
08:45
Can you see how it's growing? And how hundreds of millions
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Näete, kuidas see kasvab? Ja kuidas sajad miljonid
08:48
and billions is coming out of poverty in Asia?
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ja miljardid inimesed Aasias tulevad vaesusest välja?
08:51
And it goes over here?
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Kuni sinnamaani välja.
08:53
And I come now, into projections,
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Nüüd jõuame prognoosideni.
08:55
but I have to stop at the door of Lehman Brothers there, you know, because --
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Aga ma pean katkestama Lehman Brothersi lävel, sest...
08:58
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
09:01
that's where the projections are not valid any longer.
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Sest sealtmaalt ei ole prognoos enam kehtiv.
09:03
Probably the world will do this.
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Tõenäoliselt toimub maailmas väike tagasiminek,
09:05
and then it will continue forward like this.
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aga siis minnakse niimoodi jälle edasi.
09:08
But more or less, this is what will happen,
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Nii või teisiti, suures plaanis läheb umbes nii.
09:10
and we have a world which cannot be looked upon as divided.
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Meil on maailm, mida ei saa vaadata tükkideks jagatuna.
09:15
We have the high income countries here,
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Siin on kõrge sissetulekuga riigid,
09:17
with the United States as a leading power;
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millest esimene on USA.
09:20
we have the emerging economies in the middle,
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On esilekerkivaid majandussüsteeme,
09:23
which provide a lot of the funding for the bailout;
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mis tagavad suure osa rahast kolmanda maailma võlgade käendamisel,
09:25
and we have the low income countries here.
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ja siis on madala sissetulekuga riigid.
09:28
Yeah, this is a fact that from where the money comes,
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Jah, see on fakt, et kust see raha pärit on.
09:31
they have been saving, you know, over the last decade.
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Nad on viimase kümnendi jooksul palju säästnud.
09:33
And here we have the low income countries
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Ja siin on meil madala sissetulekuga riigid,
09:35
where entrepreneurs are.
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kus asuvad ettevõtjad.
09:37
And here we have the countries in collapse and war,
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Ja siin on riigid, kus valitseb varing ja sõda,
09:40
like Afghanistan, Somalia, parts of Congo, Darfur.
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nagu Afganistan, Somaalia, osa Kongost, Darfur.
09:45
We have all this at the same time.
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Kõik see on samal ajal.
09:47
That's why it's so problematic to describe what has happened
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Sellepärast on väga problemaatiline kirjeldada,
09:49
in the developing world.
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mis on arengumaailmas toimunud.
09:51
Because it's so different, what has happened there.
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Sest kõik juhtunu on äärmiselt erinev.
09:53
And that's why I suggest
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Sellepärast ma pakungi välja
09:55
a slightly different approach of what you would call it.
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pisut teistsugust vaatepunkti sellele, mismoodi seda nimetada.
09:58
And you have huge differences within countries also.
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Ka riikidesiseselt on tohutud erinevused.
10:02
I heard that your departments here were by regions.
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Mulle öeldi, et teil jaotatakse kõike regioonide kaupa.
10:05
Here you have Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia,
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Siin on Sub-Sahaara Aafrika, Lõuna-Aasia,
10:08
East Asia, Arab states,
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Ida-Aasia, Araabia riigid,
10:10
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD.
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Ida-Euroopa, Ladina-Ameerika ning OECD.
10:12
And on this axis, GDP.
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See telg näitab SKP-d.
10:14
And on this, heath, child survival,
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See telg populatsiooni tervist, laste ellujäämust.
10:16
and it doesn't come as a surprise
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Sugugi ei üllata,
10:18
that Africa south of Sahara is at the bottom.
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et Aafrika, Lõuna-Sahaara, on kõige all.
10:21
But when I split it, when I split it
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Aga kui ma selle osadeks jaotan -
10:23
into country bubbles,
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väikesteks riigimullideks -
10:25
the size of the bubbles here is the population.
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mullide suurus näitab populatsiooni.
10:28
Then you see Sierra Leone and Mauritius, completely different.
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Näete, et Sierra Leone ja Mauritius on täiest erinevad.
10:31
There is such a difference within Sub-Saharan Africa.
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Selline erinevus Sub-Sahaara Aafrika siseselt.
10:33
And I can split the others. Here is the South Asian,
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Ma võin ka teised tükkideks jagada. Lõuna-Aasia,
10:36
Arab world.
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Araabia maailma -
10:38
Now all your different departments.
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kõik erinevad sektorid -
10:40
East Europe, Latin America, and OECD countries.
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Ida-Euroopa, Ladina-Ameerika ja OECD maad.
10:43
And here were are. We have a continuum in the world.
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Näete siis. Maailmas on kontiinum.
10:46
We cannot put it into two parts.
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Me ei saa seda eristada kaheks osaks.
10:48
It is Mayflower down here. It is Washington here,
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Siin all on Mayflower, siin Washington,
10:51
building, building countries.
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kes muudkui ehitab ja ehitab riike,
10:53
It's Lincoln here, advancing them.
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siin Lincoln, arendab neid edasi,
10:57
It's Eisenhower bringing modernity into the countries.
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siin Eisenhower, muudab need riigid kaasaegseks,
11:00
And then it's United States today, up here.
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ja siis tänane USA siin üleval.
11:02
And we have countries all this way.
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Ja erinevad riigid on erinevates staadiumites.
11:04
Now, this is the important thing
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See on oluline osa mõistmaks,
11:07
of understanding how the world has changed.
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kuidas maailm on muutunud.
11:11
At this point I decided to make a pause.
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Siinkohal otsustasin ma teha pausi.
11:15
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
11:17
And it is my task, on behalf of the rest of the world,
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Ülejäänud maailma nimel on minu ülesanne
11:20
to convey a thanks to the U.S. taxpayers,
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anda edasi tänu ameerika maksumaksjale
11:24
for Demographic Health Survey.
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Demograafilise Terviseuuringu eest.
11:26
Many are not aware of -- no, this is not a joke.
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Paljud ei tea, et - ei, see pole nali.
11:29
This is very serious.
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See on väga tõsine asi.
11:31
It is due to USA's continuous sponsoring
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Tänu USA pidevale spondeerimisele 25 aasta jooksul
11:35
during 25 years of the very good methodology
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ja väga heale metodoloogiale
11:38
for measuring child mortality
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laste suremuse hindamises
11:40
that we have a grasp of what's happening in the world.
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on meil umbkaudne arusaam, mis maailmas toimub.
11:43
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
11:50
And it is U.S. government at its best,
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See on USA valitsus oma parimal kujul,
11:53
without advocacy, providing facts,
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ilma propagandata, pakkudes ainult fakte,
11:56
that it's useful for the society.
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mis on ühiskonnale kasulikud.
11:58
And providing data free of charge
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Pakkudes andmeid ilma tasuta,
12:01
on the internet, for the world to use. Thank you very much.
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internetis, kogu maailmale kasutada. Suur aitäh.
12:04
Quite the opposite of the World Bank,
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Üsna vastupidiselt Maailmapangale,
12:06
who compiled data with government money,
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kes pani kokku andmestiku, kasutades selleks valitsuse
12:09
tax money, and then they sell it to add a little profit,
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ja maksude raha, ning siis müüs seda kasumi eesmärgil
12:12
in a very inefficient, Gutenberg way.
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väga ebaefektiivsel, Guttenbergi moel.
12:15
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
12:21
But the people doing that at the World Bank
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Aga inimesed, kes seda Maailmapangas teevad,
12:23
are among the best in the world.
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on oma ala parimad terves maailmas.
12:25
And they are highly skilled professionals.
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Nad on väga kõrge kvalifikatsiooniga professionaalid.
12:27
It's just that we would like to upgrade our international agencies
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Lihtsalt me tahaksime uuendada oma rahvusvahelisi esindusi,
12:31
to deal with the world in the modern way, as we do.
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et suhelda maailmaga kaasaegsel viisil.
12:34
And when it comes to free data and transparency,
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Ja mis puutub tasuta infosse ning läbipaistvusse,
12:37
United States of America is one of the best.
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on USA parimate hulgas.
12:40
And that doesn't come easy from the mouth of a Swedish public health professor.
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Ja see ei tule ühelt rootsi tervisekaitse professorilt kergesti üle huulte.
12:43
(Laughter)
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(Naer)
12:46
And I'm not paid to come here, no.
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Mulle pole makstud, et siia tulla.
12:49
I would like to show you what happens with the data,
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Ma tahan näidata, mis juhtub nende andmetega -
12:51
what we can show with this data.
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mida me saame neid kasutades näidata.
12:53
Look here. This is the world.
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Vaadake siia. See on maailm.
12:55
With income down there and child mortality.
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Alumisel teljel on sissetulek ja teisel laste suremus.
12:57
And what has happened in the world?
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Ja mis on maailmas toimunud?
12:59
Since 1950, during the last 50 years
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1950ndatest, viimase 50 aasta jooksul
13:02
we have had a fall in child mortality.
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on laste suremus langenud.
13:05
And it is the DHS that makes it possible to know this.
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Me saame seda teada tänu Demograafilisele Terviseuuringule.
13:07
And we had an increase in income.
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Ühtlasi on suurenenud sissetulek.
13:09
And the blue former developing countries
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Ja sinised endised arengumaad
13:11
are mixing up with the former industrialized western world.
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segunevad endiste industrialiseerunud lääneriikidega.
13:16
We have a continuum. But we still have, of course,
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Meil on kontiinum. Aga samal ajal on meil veel ka näiteks
13:19
Congo, up there. We still have as poor countries
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Kongo, seal üleval - meil on alles sama vaesed riigid,
13:22
as we have had, always, in history.
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nagu alati läbi ajaloo on olnud.
13:26
And that's the bottom billion, where we've heard today
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See on viimane miljard, mille puhul me täna mõistame
13:29
about a completely new approach to do it.
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täiesti uut lähenemist.
13:32
And how fast has this happened?
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Kui kiiresti see juhtunud?
13:35
Well, MDG 4.
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MDG 4 - aastatuhande arengueesmärk 4.
13:37
The United States has not been so eager
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USA pole olnud eriti entusiastlik
13:39
to use MDG 4.
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selle neljanda arengueesmärgi suhtes,
13:42
But you have been the main sponsor that has enabled us to measure it,
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aga ometi on olnud põhisponsor võimaldamaks meil seda mõõta.
13:45
because it's the only child mortality that we can measure.
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Sest ainult laste suremust me saame mõõta.
13:48
And we used to say that it should fall four percent per year.
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MDG 4 ütleb, et see peaks langema neli protsenti aastas.
13:51
Let's see what Sweden has done.
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Vaatame, mida rootslased on teinud.
13:53
We used to boast about fast social progress.
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Me kiitlesime alati kiire ühiskondliku arenguga.
13:56
That's where we were, 1900.
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Siin oleme meie aastal 1900.
13:58
1900, Sweden was there.
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Aasta 1900, Rootsi.
14:00
Same child mortality as Bangladesh had, 1990,
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Sama laste suremus, mis Bangladeshil oli 1990. aastal.
14:02
though they had lower income.
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Kuigi neil oli madalam sissetulek.
14:04
They started very well. They used the aid well.
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Nad alustasid väga hästi. Nad kasutasid abi tulemuslikult,
14:07
They vaccinated the kids. They get better water.
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nad vaktsineerisid lapsi, nad said paremat vett.
14:09
And they reduced child mortality,
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Ja nad vähendasid laste suremust
14:11
with an amazing 4.7 percent per year. They beat Sweden.
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imetlusväärsel kombel 4,7%. Nad võitsid Rootsi ära.
14:14
I run Sweden the same 16 year period.
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Ma jätkan Rootsiga pärast seda 16-aastast perioodi.
14:18
Second round, it's Sweden, 1916,
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Järgmine raund: Rootsi 1916
14:20
against Egypt, 1990.
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versus Egiptus 1990.
14:22
Here we go. Once again the USA is part of the reason here.
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Hakkab peale. Taaskord on USA osa põhjusest.
14:25
They get safe water, they get food for the poor,
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Nad saavad kõlblikku vett ja süüa vaestele.
14:29
and they get malaria eradicated.
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Nad hävitavad malaaria.
14:31
5.5 percent. They are faster than the millennium development goal.
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5,5%. Nad on veel kiiremad kui aastatuhande arengueesmärk.
14:34
And third chance for Sweden, against Brazil here.
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Kolmas võimalus Rootsi jaoks, vastane on Brasiilia.
14:37
Brazil here has amazing social improvement
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Brasiilia on läbi teinud hämmastava ühiskondliku arengu
14:41
over the last 16 years,
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viimase 16 aasta jooksul.
14:43
and they go faster than Sweden.
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Nad liiguvad kiiremini kui Rootsi.
14:45
This means that the world is converging.
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See tähendab, et maailm koondub.
14:47
The middle income countries,
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Keskmise sissetulekuga riigid
14:49
the emerging economy, they are catching up.
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ja arengumaad jõuavad järele.
14:51
They are moving to cities,
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Inimesed kolivad linnadesse,
14:53
where they also get better assistance for that.
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kus neil on võimalik paremat abi saada.
14:55
Well the Swedish students protest at this point.
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Rootslased jällegi protesteerivad.
14:58
They say, "This is not fair,
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Nad ütlevad: "See ei ole õiglane,
15:00
because these countries had vaccines and antibiotics
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sest neil riikidel oli vaktsiin ja antibiootikumid,
15:02
that were not available for Sweden.
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mida Rootsis ei olnud.
15:04
We have to do real-time competition."
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Me peame võistlema reaalajas."
15:06
Okay. I give you Singapore, the year I was born.
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Olgu. Ma näitan teile Singapuri aastal, mil ma sündisin.
15:09
Singapore had twice the child mortality of Sweden.
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Singapuril oli kaks korda suurem laste suremus kui Rootsis.
15:11
It's the most tropical country in the world,
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See on maailma kõige troopilisem maa.
15:13
a marshland on the equator.
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Ekvatoriaalne soine maa.
15:15
And here we go. It took a little time for them to get independent.
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Nii. Neil võttis pisut aega, et saada iseseisvaks,
15:18
But then they started to grow their economy.
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aga siis hakkasid nad ehitama üles majandust
15:20
And they made the social investment. They got away malaria.
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ning investeerisid ühiskonda. Nad said lahti malaariast,
15:22
They got a magnificent health system
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neil on suurepärane tervishoiusüsteem,
15:24
that beat both the U.S. and Sweden.
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mis seljatas nii USA kui ka Rootsi.
15:26
We never thought it would happen that they would win over Sweden!
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Me ei uskunud ju, et nad võiksid võita Rootsit!
15:29
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
15:37
All these green countries are achieving millennium development goals.
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Kõik need rohelised riigid saavutavad aastatuhande arengueesmärke.
15:40
These yellow are just about to be doing this.
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Kollased on sellele lähedal.
15:42
These red are the countries that doesn't do it, and the policy has to be improved.
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Punased ei tee seda ja sellega seoses on vaja midagi muuta.
15:45
Not simplistic extrapolation.
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Pole vaja lihtsustatud üldistust.
15:48
We have to really find a way
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Meil on tõesti tarvis leida viis
15:50
of supporting those countries in a better way.
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neid riike paremini toetada.
15:52
We have to respect the middle income countries
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Meil tuleb respekteerida keskmise sissetulekuga riike
15:55
on what they are doing.
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selles, mida nad teevad,
15:57
And we have to fact-base the whole way we look at the world.
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ja me peame oma maailmanägemuse toetama faktidele.
16:00
This is dollar per person. This is HIV in the countries.
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See on dollar inimese kohta. See on HIV maades.
16:03
The blue is Africa.
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Sinine on Aafrika.
16:05
The size of the bubbles is how many are HIV affected.
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Mullide suurus näitab, kui palju on HIV-nakatunuid.
16:08
You see the tragedy in South Africa there.
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Näete Lõuna-Aafrika tragöödiat.
16:10
About 20 percent of the adult population are infected.
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Umbes 20% täiskasvanud rahvastikust on nakatunud.
16:13
And in spite of them having quite a high income,
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Sõltumata sellest, et neil on üsna kõrge sissetulek,
16:16
they have a huge number of HIV infected.
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on neil väga palju HIV-positiivseid.
16:19
But you also see that there are African countries down here.
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Aga näete ka neid Aafrika riike siin all.
16:22
There is no such thing as an HIV epidemic in Africa.
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Sellist asja nagu HIV-epideemia Aafrikas ei ole olemas.
16:26
There's a number, five to 10 countries in Africa
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On osa riike, 5-10 maad Aafrikas,
16:29
that has the same level as Sweden and United States.
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mille tase on sama, mis Rootsil ja USA-l.
16:32
And there are others who are extremely high.
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Ja on teised, mille tase on äärmiselt kõrge.
16:34
And I will show you that what has happened
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Ma näitan, mis on juhtunud
16:37
in one of the best countries, with the most vibrant economy
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ühes kõige paremas riigis, millel on väga elav majandus,
16:41
in Africa and a good governance, Botswana.
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väga hea valitsus, see on Botswana.
16:44
They have a very high level. It's coming down.
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Neil on väga kõrge haigustase. See langes.
16:46
But now it's not falling,
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Aga nüüd enam ei lange.
16:48
because there, with help from PEPFAR,
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Sest seal osutab abi PEPFAR,
16:50
it's working with treatment. And people are not dying.
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nad pakuvad ravi ning inimesed ei sure.
16:53
And you can see it's not that easy,
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Te näete, et see ei ole nii üheselt võetav,
16:56
that it is war which caused this.
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nagu oleks sõda selle põhjustanud,
16:59
Because here, in Congo, there is war.
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sest siin, Kongos, on sõda,
17:01
And here, in Zambia, there is peace.
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ja siin, Sambias, on rahu.
17:04
And it's not the economy. Richer country has a little higher.
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Asi pole ka majanduses. Rikkal riigil on veidi kõrgem tase.
17:07
If I split Tanzania in its income,
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Kui ma jagan Tansaania sissetuleku põhjal osadeks,
17:09
the richer 20 percent in Tanzania
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siis rikkamas 20 protsendis Tansaaniast
17:11
has more HIV than the poorest one.
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on rohkem HIV-d, kui kõige vaesemas.
17:13
And it's really different within each country.
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See on riigisiseselt erinev.
17:16
Look at the provinces of Kenya. They are very different.
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Vaadake erinevad Keenia maakondi. Need on väga erinevad.
17:18
And this is the situation you see.
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Te näete seda olukorda.
17:21
It's not deep poverty. It's the special situation,
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See ei ole tohutu vaesus. See on teistmoodi olukord.
17:24
probably of concurrent sexual partnership
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Tõenäoliselt polügaamne seksuaalsuhe
17:27
among part of the heterosexual population
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mingi osa heteroseksuaalse rahvastiku seas
17:30
in some countries, or some parts of countries,
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mõnes riigis või riigiosades
17:32
in south and eastern Africa.
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Lõuna- ja Ida-Aafrikas.
17:34
Don't make it Africa. Don't make it a race issue.
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Ärge nähke selles kogu Aafrikat. Ärge tehke sellest rassiteemat.
17:37
Make it a local issue. And do prevention at each place,
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Vaadake seda kui lokaalset probleemi ja püüdke haigestumist ära hoida
17:41
in the way it can be done there.
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igal pool nii, nagu just seal saab.
17:43
So to just end up,
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Nii et lõpetuseks.
17:46
there are things of suffering
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Ühe miljardi kõige vaesemate hulgas on veel kannatusi,
17:49
in the one billion poorest, which we don't know.
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millest me midagi ei tea.
17:52
Those who live beyond the cellphone,
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Need on inimesed, kes elavad mobiililevist väljas,
17:54
those who have yet to see a computer,
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kes pole veel näinud arvutit,
17:56
those who have no electricity at home.
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kel pole kodus elektrit.
17:59
This is the disease, Konzo, I spent 20 years
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See on haigus nimega konzo, mille kohta ma kahekümne aasta jooksul
18:01
elucidating in Africa.
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Aafrikas selgitustööd tegin.
18:03
It's caused by fast processing of toxic cassava root in famine situation.
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Seda põhjustab mürgise maniokijuure kiire töötlus näljahädaolukorras.
18:08
It's similar to the pellagra epidemic in Mississippi in the '30s.
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See sarnaneb pellagrale kolmekümnendatel aastatel Mississippis
18:12
It's similar to other nutritional diseases.
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või teistele toitumisega seotud haigustele.
18:15
It will never affect a rich person.
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See ei taba kunagi rikast inimest.
18:17
We have seen it here in Mozambique.
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Me oleme näinud seda Mosambiigis,
18:20
This is the epidemic in Mozambique. This is an epidemic in northern Tanzania.
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seal on see epideemiline. See on epideemia Põhja-Tansaanias.
18:23
You never heard about the disease.
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Te ei ole kunagi sellest haigusest kuulnud,
18:25
But it's much more than Ebola
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aga võrreldes ebolaga
18:27
that has been affected by this disease.
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on see palju rohkemaid mõjutanud,
18:29
Cause crippling throughout the world.
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põhjustanud sandistumist üle terve maailma.
18:31
And over the last two years,
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Viimase kahe aasta jooksul
18:33
2,000 people has been crippled
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on 2000 inimest invaliidiks jäänud
18:35
in the southern tip of Bandundu region.
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Bandunda territooriumi lõunapoolses otsas.
18:37
That used to be the illegal diamond trade,
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Seal toimus kunagi ebaseaduslik teemantikauplemine,
18:39
from the UNITA-dominated area in Angola.
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kui UNITA partei valitses veel ala Angoolas.
18:42
That has now disappeared,
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See nüüd on kadunud.
18:44
and they are now in great economic problem.
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Nad on praegu suurtes majanduslikes raskustes.
18:46
And one week ago, for the first time,
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Nädal aega tagasi oli sellest esimest korda
18:49
there were four lines on the Internet.
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internetis neli rida kirjutatud.
18:52
Don't get confused of the progress of the emerging economies
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Ärge sattuge segadusse arengumaade majanduse progressist
18:55
and the great capacity
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ja sellest, kui võimekad on
18:58
of people in the middle income countries
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keskmise sissetulekuga riikide
19:00
and in peaceful low income countries.
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ja rahus elavate madala sissetulekuga riikide rahvad.
19:02
There is still mystery in one billion.
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Üks miljard on endiselt tume ala.
19:04
And we have to have more concepts
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Meil on vaja toekamat kontseptsiooni
19:06
than just developing countries and developing world.
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kui üksnes arengumaad ja arengumaailm.
19:09
We need a new mindset. The world is converging,
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Meil on vaja uusi hoiakuid. Maailm on hakanud koonduma.
19:12
but -- but -- but not the bottom billion.
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Aga, aga, aga mitte kõige alumine miljard.
19:15
They are still as poor as they've ever been.
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Nemad on endiselt sama vaesed nagu alati.
19:18
It's not sustainable, and it will not happen around one superpower.
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See ei ole jätkusuutlik ja seda ei muuda üks ülijõud.
19:23
But you will remain
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Aga teie jääte
19:25
one of the most important superpowers,
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üheks kõige olulisemaks ülijõuks
19:28
and the most hopeful superpower, for the time to be.
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ja esialgu ka kõige lootustandvamaks.
19:31
And this institution
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Ja sel institutsioonil
19:33
will have a very crucial role,
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on äärmiselt oluline roll -
19:35
not for United States, but for the world.
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mitte USA jaoks, vaid kogu maailma jaoks.
19:37
So you have a very bad name,
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Teie nimi ei ole kohane,
19:40
State Department. This is not the State Department.
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te ei ole mitte välisministeerium,
19:42
It's the World Department.
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vaid maailmaministeerium.
19:44
And we have a high hope in you. Thank you very much.
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Ja meil on teie suhtes suured lootused. Suur aitäh.
19:46
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com