TEDGlobal 2009
Misha Glenny: The real story of McMafia -- how global crime networks work
Misha Glenny istražuje globalne mreže kriminala
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Novinar Miša Gleni je proveo nekoliko godina hrabro istražujući organizovanu mrežu svjetskog kriminala, na koju po procjenama otpada 15% globalne ekonomije. Od ruske mafije do gigantskih narko-kartela, njegovi izvori nisu samo zakonodavne i tajne službe, njegovi izvori su i sami kriminalci.
Misha Glenny - Underworld investigator
Journalist Misha Glenny leaves no stone unturned (and no failed state unexamined) in his excavation of criminal globalization. Full bio
Journalist Misha Glenny leaves no stone unturned (and no failed state unexamined) in his excavation of criminal globalization. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
These are grim economic times,
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Ovo su zabrinjavajuća ekonomska vremena
00:15
fellow TEDsters, grim economic times indeed.
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prijatelji TEDsteri, zaista nesretna ekonomska vremena.
00:18
And so, I would like to cheer you up
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I zato bih vas želio oraspoložiti
00:21
with one of the great, albeit largely unknown,
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sa jednom velikom, iako uglavnom nepoznatom
00:24
commercial success stories
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pričom o poslovnom uspjehu
00:26
of the past 20 years.
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u zadnjih 20 godina.
00:28
Comparable, in its own very peculiar way,
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Koja se na specifičan način može uporediti
00:31
to the achievements of Microsoft or Google.
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sa uspjesima Microsofta ili Googlea.
00:34
And it's an industry which has bucked the current recession
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To je industrija koja je podnijela trenutnu recesiju
00:37
with equanimity.
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vrlo ležerno.
00:39
I refer to organized crime.
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Govorim o organizovanom kriminalu.
00:42
Now organized crime has been around
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Reći ćete, organizovani kriminal
00:44
for a very long time, I hear you say,
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postoji već vrlo dugo.
00:47
and these would be wise words, indeed.
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I tu bi bili zbilja u pravu.
00:49
But in the last two decades,
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Ali u posljednje dvije decenije
00:52
it has experienced an unprecedented expansion,
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je doživio neviđen razvoj.
00:55
now accounting for roughly 15 percent
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I danas predstavlja otprilike 15%
00:59
of the world's GDP.
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svjetskog bruto nacionalnog dohodka.
01:01
I like to call it the Global Shadow Economy,
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Volim ga nazivati globalna ekonomija u sjeni
01:04
or McMafia, for short.
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ili ukratko 'McMafia'.
01:07
So what triggered this extraordinary growth
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Šta je prouzrokovalo ovaj nevjerovatan porast
01:10
in cross-border crime?
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međunarodnog kriminala?
01:12
Well, of course, there is globalization,
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Naravno, tu je globalizacija,
01:14
technology, communications, all that stuff,
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tehnologija, komunikacije i ostale stvari
01:17
which we'll talk about a little bit later.
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o kojima ćemo pričati nešto kasnije.
01:20
But first, I would like to take you back
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Prvo bih vas želio vratiti
01:23
to this event:
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ovom događaju.
01:25
the collapse of communism.
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Padu komunizma.
01:27
All across Eastern Europe, a most momentous episode
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U cijeloj istočnoj Evropi, nezaboravan momenat
01:31
in our post-war history.
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u našoj poslijeratnoj historiji.
01:33
Now it's time for full disclosure.
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Sada je vrijeme da vam kažem istinu.
01:36
This event meant a great deal to me personally.
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Ovaj događaj je meni lično mnogo predstavljao.
01:39
I had started smuggling books across the Iron Curtain
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Krijumčario sam knjige preko gvozdene zavjese
01:43
to Democratic opposition groups in Eastern Europe,
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demokratskoj opoziciji u istočnoj Evropi
01:45
like Solidarity in Poland,
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kao što je bila Solidarnost u Poljskoj
01:47
when I was in my teens.
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kada sam bio tinejdžer.
01:49
I then started writing about Eastern Europe,
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Onda sam počeo pisati o istočnoj Evropi
01:53
and eventually I became the BBC's chief correspondent for the region,
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nakon čega postadoh glavni BBC-jev dopisnik za regiju.
01:57
which is what I was doing in 1989.
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Dužnost koju sam obavljao 1989.
02:01
And so when 425 million people
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Kada je 425 miliona ljudi
02:05
finally won the right
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napokon dobilo pravo
02:07
to choose their own governments,
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da izabere svoju vladu,
02:09
I was ecstatic,
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bio sam presretan.
02:12
but I was also a touch worried
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Ali bio sam dijelom i zabrinut
02:14
about some of the nastier things
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u vezi nekih prljavih stvari
02:16
lurking behind the wall.
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koje vrebaju iza ugla.
02:18
It wasn't long, for example,
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Na primjer, nije potrajalo dugo,
02:20
before ethnic nationalism
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prije nego će etnički nacionalizam
02:22
reared its bloody head
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pokazati svoje krvavo lice
02:24
in Yugoslavia.
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u Jugoslaviji.
02:26
And amongst the chaos,
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I u svom tom haosu
02:28
amidst the euphoria,
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usred euforije,
02:30
it took me a little while to understand
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trebalo mi je malo da shvatim
02:32
that some of the people who had wielded power
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da su neki od ljudi koji su posjedovali moć
02:35
before 1989, in Eastern Europe,
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u istočnoj Evropi prije 1989.
02:39
continued to do so after the revolutions there.
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i dalje činili isto nakon tamošnje revolucije.
02:43
Obviously there were characters like this.
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Očigledno je bilo takvih likova.
02:47
But there were also some more unexpected people
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Ali tu je bilo i nekih neočekivanih ljudi
02:51
who played a critical role in what was going on in Eastern Europe.
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koji su igrali ključnu ulogu u događajima u istočnoj Evropi.
02:55
Like this character. Remember these guys?
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Kao ovaj recimo. Sjećate li se njih?
02:58
They used to win the gold medals in weightlifting
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Nekad su osvajali zlatne medalje u dizanju tegova
03:00
and wrestling, every four years in the Olympics,
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i hrvanju, svake četiri godine na Olimpijskim igrama.
03:03
and they were the great celebrities of communism,
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Bili su prave zvijezde za komunizam,
03:06
with a fabulous lifestyle to go with it.
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sa dobrim načinom života koji ide uz to.
03:09
They used to get great apartments in the center of town,
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Dobivali su odlične stanove u centru grada.
03:11
casual sex on tap,
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Povremeno i seksualne usluge.
03:13
and they could travel to the West very freely,
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I mogli su slobodno putovati na zapad,
03:16
which was a great luxury at the time.
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što je bilo veliki luksuz u to vrijeme.
03:19
It may come as a surprise, but they played a critical role
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Iznenađujuće, ali oni su igrali kritičnu ulogu
03:23
in the emergence of the market economy
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za vrijeme tranzicije
03:25
in Eastern Europe.
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u istočnoj Evropi.
03:27
Or as I like to call them, they are
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Ili kao što ih ja volim nazivati, oni su
03:29
the midwives of capitalism.
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babice kapitalizma.
03:31
Here are some of those same weightlifters
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Evo nekih od tih istih dizača tegova
03:34
after their 1989 makeover.
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poslije tretmana iz 1989.
03:37
Now in Bulgaria --
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U Bugarskoj,
03:40
this photograph was taken in Bulgaria --
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ova fotografija je snimljena u Bugarskoj,
03:42
when communism collapsed all over Eastern Europe,
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kada se komunizam raspao u istočnoj Evropi
03:45
it wasn't just communism;
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nije se raspao samo komunizam,
03:47
it was the state that collapsed as well.
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već i cijeli državni poredak.
03:49
That means your police force wasn't working.
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Što znači da policijski organi nisu radili.
03:51
The court system wasn't functioning properly.
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Sud nije funkcionisao kako treba.
03:54
So what was a business man in the brave new world
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Dakle, šta je poslovni čovjek u novom hrabrom svijetu
03:59
of East European capitalism going to do
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kapitalizma istočne Evrope mogao učiniti
04:01
to make sure that his contracts would be honored?
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kako bi osigurao da se ugovori poštuju?
04:05
Well, he would turn to people who were called, rather prosaically
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Pa, on bi se obratio ljudima koje su sociolozi prozaično nazivali
04:08
by sociologists, privatized law enforcement agencies.
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privatizovane agencije za sprovođenje zakona.
04:12
We prefer to know them as the mafia.
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Mi ih poznajemo pod imenom mafija.
04:16
And in Bulgaria, the mafia was soon joined
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I u Bugarskoj mafiji će se uskoro pridružiti
04:19
with 14,000 people
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14 hiljada ljudi
04:21
who were sacked from their jobs in the security services
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otpuštenih sa poslova u sigurnosnim agencijama
04:25
between 1989 and 1991.
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između 1989. i 1991.
04:27
Now, when your state is collapsing,
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Sada, kada vam je država u kolapsu,
04:31
your economy is heading south at a rate of knots,
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ekonomija velikom brzinom propada,
04:34
the last people you want coming on to the labor market
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posljednji ljudi koje želite vidjeti na tržištu rada
04:37
are 14,000 men and women whose chief skills
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su 14 hiljada žena i muškaraca čije su osnovne vještine
04:40
are surveillance,
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nagledanje i prisluškivanje,
04:42
are smuggling, building underground networks
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krijumčarenje, organizovanje struktura u podzemlju
04:45
and killing people.
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i ubijanje ljudi.
04:48
But that's what happened all over Eastern Europe.
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I to je što se dogodilo širom istočne Evrope.
04:51
Now, when I was working in the 1990s,
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Dok sam radio devedesetih godina
04:56
I spent most of the time covering
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najviše sam vremena proveo pokrivajući
04:59
the appalling conflict in Yugoslavia.
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užasan sukob u Jugoslaviji.
05:02
And I couldn't help notice
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I nisam mogao da ne primjetim
05:04
that the people who were perpetrating the appalling atrocities,
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da su ljudi koji su činili užasna nedjela,
05:08
the paramilitary organizations,
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paravojne organizacije,
05:11
were actually the same people running
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bili zapravo isti oni koji su upravljali
05:13
the organized criminal syndicates.
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organizovanim kriminalnim mrežama.
05:16
And I came to think that behind the violence
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Tada sam počeo shvatati kako iza nasilja
05:20
lay a sinister criminal enterprise.
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stoji mračni kriminalni poduhvat.
05:23
And so I resolved to travel around the world
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I tako sam odlučio putovati oko svijeta
05:27
examining this global criminal underworld
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posmatrajući ovo globalno krminalno podzemlje
05:30
by talking to policemen,
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razgovarajući sa policajcima,
05:32
by talking to victims, by talking to consumers
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razgovarajući sa žrtvama, sa potrošačima
05:35
of illicit goods and services.
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nedopuštenih roba i usluga.
05:37
But above all else, by talking to the gangsters themselves.
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Ali prije svega, razgovarajući sa samim mafijašima.
05:42
And the Balkans was a fabulous place to start.
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I naravno, Balkan je bio odlično mjesto za početi.
05:45
Why? Well of course
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Zašto? Pa, prije svega
05:47
there was the issue of law and order collapsing,
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jer su se tamo red i zakon urušili.
05:49
but also, as they say in the retail trade,
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Ali isto tako, kao što tvrde u trgovinama,
05:51
it's location, location, location.
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da je sve do lokacije, lokacije, lokacije.
05:55
And what I noticed at the beginning of my research
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I ono što sam primjetio na početku svog traganja
05:57
that the Balkans had turned into a vast transit zone
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da je Balkan postao ogromna tranzitna zona
06:02
for illicit goods and services coming from all over the world.
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za nezakonite robe i usluge koje dolaze iz cijeloga svijeta.
06:05
Heroin, cocaine,
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Heroin, kokain,
06:07
women being trafficked into prostitution
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trgovina ženama radi prostitucije
06:10
and precious minerals.
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i plemeniti minerali.
06:12
And where were they heading?
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I kuda je sve to bilo usmjereno?
06:14
The European Union, which by now
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Ka Evropskoj uniji, koja je već
06:16
was beginning to reap the benefits of globalization,
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bila počela ubirati prednosti globalizacije.
06:20
transforming it into
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Pretvarajući se u
06:22
the most affluent consumer market in history,
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najbogatije potrošačko tržište u historiji
06:25
eventually comprising some 500 million people.
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koje obuhvata oko 500 miliona ljudi.
06:28
And a significant minority
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I značajna manjina
06:31
of those 500 million people
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od ovih 500 miliona ljudi
06:33
like to spend some of their leisure time and spare cash
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svoj novac i slobodno vrijeme voli trošiti
06:36
sleeping with prostitutes,
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na prostitutke,
06:38
sticking 50 Euro notes up their nose
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gurajući novčanice od 50 eura
06:41
and employing illegal migrant laborers.
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i ilegalno zapošljavajući radnike iz inostranstva.
06:44
Now, organized crime in a globalizing world
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Organizovani kriminal u globalizovanom svijetu
06:48
operates in the same way as any other business.
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funkcioniše na isti način kao i svaki drugi biznis.
06:50
It has zones of production,
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Ima svoje produkcijske zone
06:53
like Afghanistan and Columbia.
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kao što su Afganistan i Kolumbija.
06:56
It has zones of distribution,
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Zone distribucije
06:58
like Mexico and the Balkans.
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poput Meksika i Balkana.
07:01
And then, of course, it has zones of consumption,
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I naravno, zone konzumacije
07:05
like the European Union, Japan
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kao što je Evropska unija, Japan
07:07
and of course, the United States.
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i naravno Sjedinjene Države.
07:10
The zones of production and distribution
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Zone produkcije i distribucije
07:13
tend to lie in the developing world,
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se obično nalaze u zemljama u razvoju.
07:16
and they are often threatened by appalling violence
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I često su izložene užasnom nasilju
07:20
and bloodshed.
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i krvoproliću.
07:22
Take Mexico, for example.
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Uzmimo na primjer Meksiko.
07:24
Six thousand people killed there in the last 18 months
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Tamo je u posljednjih 18 mjeseci, ubijeno 6 hiljada ljudi
07:28
as a direct consequence of the cocaine trade.
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što je direktna posljedica trgovine kokainom.
07:32
But what about the Democratic Republic of Congo?
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A šta je sa Demokratskom Republikom Kongo?
07:36
Since 1998, five million people have died there.
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Od 1998. tamo je umrlo 5 miliona ljudi.
07:42
It's not a conflict you read about much in the newspapers,
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To nije konflikt o kojem mnogo čitate u novinama.
07:44
but it's the biggest conflict on this planet
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Ali je najveći konflikt na planeti
07:47
since the Second World War.
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nakon Drugog svjetskog rata.
07:49
And why is it? Because mafias from all around the world
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A zašto? Jer mafija iz cijeloga svijeta
07:52
cooperate with local paramilitaries
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sarađuje sa lokalnim paravojskama
07:55
in order to seize the supplies
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kako bi osigurala zalihe
07:58
of the rich mineral resources
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bogatih mineralnih resursa
08:00
of the region.
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iz regije.
08:02
In the year 2000, 80 percent of the world's coltan
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Godine 2000. 80% svjetskih zaliha koltana
08:06
was sourced to the killing fields
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je dobiveno na poljima smrti
08:08
of the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
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sa područja istočne Demokratske Republike Kongo.
08:12
Now, coltan you will find in almost every mobile phone,
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Koltan će te danas naći u skoro svakom mobilnom telefonu,
08:16
in almost every laptop
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svakom laptopu
08:18
and games console.
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i konzolama za igranje.
08:20
The Congolese war lords were selling this stuff to the mafia
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Gospodari rata u Kongu su takve stvari prodavali mafiji
08:23
in exchange for weapons,
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u zamjenu za oružje.
08:25
and the mafia would then sell it on to Western markets.
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A mafija bi to onda prodavala po zapadnim tržištima.
08:29
And it is this Western desire
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I tako je ta zapadna potreba
08:31
to consume
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da konzumira
08:33
that is the primary driver
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primarna pogonska snaga
08:36
of international organized crime.
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organizovanog internacionalnog kriminala.
08:39
Now, let me show you some of my friends in action,
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Dozvolite mi da vam pokažem neke od svojih prijatelja u akciji,
08:43
caught conveniently on film by the Italian police,
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snimljene od Italijanske policije
08:46
and smuggling duty-not-paid cigarettes.
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krijumčareći neoporezovane cigarete.
08:49
Now, cigarettes out the factory gate are very cheap.
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Fabričke cigarete su veoma jeftine.
08:52
The European Union then imposes the highest taxes on them in the world.
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Evropska unija ih onda oporezuje najvećim porezom na svijetu.
08:56
So if you can smuggle them into the E.U.,
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Tako, ako ih uspijete prokrijumčariti do E.U.
08:59
there are very handsome profits to be made,
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možete ostvariti veoma unosan profit.
09:02
and I want to show you this to demonstrate
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I želim vam pokazati ovo kako bih demonstrirao
09:04
the type of resources available to these groups.
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tip resursa dostupnih ovim grupama.
09:07
This boat is worth one million Euros when it's new.
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Kada je nov, ovakav gliser vrijedi milion eura.
09:11
And it's the fastest thing on European waters.
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I nešto je najbrže što se može naći na evropskim vodama.
09:15
From 1994, for seven years,
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Od 1994. dobrih sedam godina,
09:18
20 of these boats
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20 ovakvih čamaca
09:20
made the trip across the Adriatic,
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je preplovljavalo Jadransko more,
09:23
from Montenegro to Italy, every single night.
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od Crne Gore do Italije, svaku noć.
09:26
And as a consequence of this trade,
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I kao posljedicu ovakvog trgovanja
09:28
Britain alone lost eight billion dollars in revenue.
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imamo samo Veliku Britaniju koja je izgubila 8 milijardi dolara poreznih prihoda.
09:33
And instead that money went to underwrite the wars in Yugoslavia
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I taj novac biva preusmjeren na ratna događanja u Jugoslaviji
09:37
and line the pockets of unscrupulous individuals.
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i za punjenje džepova beskrupuloznih pojedinaca.
09:41
Now Italian police, when this trade started,
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Kada je počela ovakva trgovina, italijanska policija je
09:44
had just two boats which could go at the same speed.
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imala svega dva glisera koja su mogla ići dovoljno brzo.
09:48
And this is very important, because the only way you can catch these guys
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I to je važno, jer je inače jedini način da uhvatite te ljude
09:50
is if they run out of gas.
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da ostanu bez benzina.
09:53
Sometimes the gangsters would bring with them
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Ponekad bi ti kriminalci sa sobom vozili
09:55
women being trafficked into prostitution,
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žene radi odvođenja u prostituciju.
09:58
and if the police intervened, they would hurl
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I ako bi se policija pojavila, oni bi bacili
10:00
the women into the sea
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žene u more,
10:03
so that the police had to go and save them from drowning,
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da bi se policija pozabavila spašavanjem žena
10:05
rather than chasing the bad guys.
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prije nego bi nastavljala hvatati loše momke.
10:09
So I have shown you this to demonstrate
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Pokazao sam vam ovo da bih demonstrirao
10:12
how many boats, how many vessels it takes
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koliko glisera, koliko plovila treba
10:14
to catch one of these guys.
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da bi se uhvatio samo jedan.
10:16
And the answer is six vessels.
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I odgovor je, šest plovila.
10:18
And remember, 20 of these speed boats
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Upamtite, 20 ovakvih brzih čamaca
10:21
were coming across the Adriatic
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se kretalo Jadranskim morem
10:23
every single night.
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svaku noć.
10:25
So what were these guys doing with all the money they were making?
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Dakle, šta su ovi ljudi radili sa zarađenim novcem?
10:29
Well, this is where we come to globalization,
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I tu dolazimo do globalizacije
10:33
because that was not just the deregulation of global trade.
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jer to nije samo deregulacija globalne trgovine.
10:36
It was the liberalization of international financial markets.
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Već i liberalizacija međunarodnog finansijskog tržišta.
10:39
And boy, did that make it easy
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I znate, to je olakšalo stvari
10:42
for the money launderers.
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peračima novca.
10:44
The last two decades have been the champagne era
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Posljednje dvije decenije su bile era procvata
10:47
for dirty lucre.
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prljavog novca.
10:49
In the 1990s, we saw financial centers around the world
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Devedesetih smo vidjeli finansijske centre širom svijeta
10:53
competing for their business,
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kako se takmiče za posao.
10:56
and there was simply no effective mechanism
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I jednostavno nije postojao efikasan mehanizam
10:58
to prevent money laundering.
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za spriječavanje pranja novca.
11:00
And a lot of licit banks were also happy
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I mnogo legealnih banaka je bilo sretno
11:03
to accept deposits
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da prihvati depozite
11:06
from very dubious sources
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iz veoma sumnjivih izvora
11:08
without questions being asked.
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bez postavljanja ikakvih pitanja.
11:11
But at the heart of this, is the offshore banking network.
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A u biti svega, je mreža banaka koja je izvan finansijskih centara.
11:15
Now these things
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Danas su takve banke
11:18
are an essential part of the money laundering parade,
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neizostavan dio procesa pranja novca.
11:21
and if you want to do something about illegal tax evasion
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I ako želite učiniti nešto po pitanju nezakonite utaje poreza
11:25
and transnational organized crime, money laundering,
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transnacionalnog organizovanog kriminala i pranja novca,
11:29
you have to get rid of them.
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morate ih se riješiti.
11:31
On a positive note, we at last have someone in the White House
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Pozitivno je što konačno imamo nekoga u Bijeloj kući
11:34
who has consistently spoken out
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ko se konzistentno oglašavao
11:37
against these corrosive entities.
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protiv ovakvih razarajučih institucija.
11:40
And if anyone is concerned about what I believe
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I ako je iko zainteresovan za moje mišljenje
11:44
is the necessity for
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potrebni su
11:47
new legislation, regulation, effective regulation,
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novi zakoni, propisi i učinkovita regulacija.
11:50
I say, let's take a look at Bernie Madoff,
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Pogledajmo naprimjer Bernieja Madoffa,
11:54
who is now going to be spending the rest of his life in jail.
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koji će ostatak svog života provesti u zatvoru.
11:58
Bernie Madoff stole 65 billion dollars.
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Bernie Madoff je ukrao 65 milijardi dolara.
12:04
That puts him up there on the Olympus of gangsters
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Što ga stavlja na sami vrh kriminala
12:07
with the Colombian cartels
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skupa sa kolumbijskim kartelima
12:09
and the major Russian crime syndicates,
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i ruskim kriminalnim sindikatima.
12:12
but he did this for decades
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No, on je to činio decenijama
12:14
in the very heart of Wall Street,
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u samom srcu Wall Streeta.
12:16
and no regulator picked up on it.
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I niko se nije zabrinuo zbog toga.
12:19
So how many other Madoffs are there on Wall Street
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Koliko još ima Madoffa na Wall Streetu,
12:22
or in the city of London,
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ili u Londonu
12:24
fleecing ordinary folk
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varajući običan svijet
12:26
and money laundering?
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i perući novac?
12:28
Well I can tell you, it's quite a few of them.
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Mogu vam reći, svakako ih ima još dosta.
12:32
Let me go on to the 101 of international organized crime now.
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Dozvolite mi da vam predstavim najveći kalibar organizovanog kriminala.
12:36
And that is narcotics. Our second marijuana farm photograph for the morning.
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To su narkotici. Imamo drugu fotografiju plantaže marihuane od jutros.
12:40
This one, however, is in central British Columbia
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Ova se nalazi u centralnoj Britanskoj Kolumbiji
12:43
where I photographed it.
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gdje sam je i snimio.
12:45
It's one of the tens of thousands
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To je jedna od desetine hiljada
12:47
of mom-and-pop grow-ops in B.C.
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malih plantaža u Britanskoj Kolumbiji
12:50
which ensure that over five percent
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koje obezbjeđuju da preko 5%
12:53
of the province's GDP is accounted for by this trade.
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BND-a ove provincije, dolaze iz ove trgovine.
12:57
Now, I was taken by inspector Brian Cantera,
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Onda me inspektor Brian Cantera
13:02
of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police,
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iz kanadske kraljevske policije
13:04
to a cavernous warehouse east of Vancouver
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vodi do zavučenog skladišta istočno od Vankuvera
13:06
to see some of the goods which are regularly confiscated
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da mi pokaže neke od proizvoda koje redovno oduzima
13:10
by the RCMP
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kanadska policija
13:12
from the smugglers who are sending it,
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od krijumčara koji marihuanu šalju
13:14
of course, down south to the United States
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na jug, u Sjedinjene Američke Države,
13:17
where there is an insatiable market
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gdje postoji nezasito tržište
13:19
for B.C. Bud, as it's called,
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za travom iz Britanske Kolumbije, kako je zovu,
13:22
in part because it's marketed as organic,
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dijelom jer se reklamira kao organska,
13:24
which of course goes down very well in California.
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što naravno najviše prolazi dole u Kaliforniji.
13:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:30
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
13:31
Now, even by the police's admission,
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Čak i po priznanju policije
13:34
this makes not a dent in the profits, really,
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ovo je mali dio profita
13:39
of the major exporters.
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koji ostvaruju glavni izvoznici.
13:41
Since the beginning of globalization,
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Otkad je počela globalizacija
13:43
the global narcotics market has expanded enormously.
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globalno tržište narkotika se veoma povećalo i razvilo.
13:47
There has, however, been no concomitant increase
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Međutim nije bilo istovremenog povećanja
13:50
in the resources available
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resursa dostupnih
13:53
to police forces.
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policijskim snagama.
13:55
This, however, may all be about to change,
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Ali to bi se moglo promijeniti.
14:00
because something very strange is going on.
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Jer se nešto čudno dešava.
14:02
The United Nations recognized
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Ujedninjene Nacije su prepoznale
14:04
earlier this -- it was last month actually --
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ovog, odnosno prošlog mjeseca
14:07
that Canada has become a key area of distribution and production
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da je Kanada postala ključna zona distribucije i produkcije
14:13
of ecstasy and other synthetic drugs.
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ekstazija i ostalih sintetičkih droga.
14:17
Interestingly, the market share
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Zanimljivo je da zastupljenost
14:19
of heroin and cocaine is going down,
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heroina i kokaina opada
14:22
because the pills are getting ever better at reproducing their highs.
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zato što tablete postaju sve bolje.
14:27
Now that is a game changer,
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To je ono što mijenja igru.
14:31
because it shifts production away from the developing world
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Jer pomjera produkciju iz Trećeg svijeta
14:35
and into the Western world.
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u zapadne zemlje.
14:39
When that happens, it is a trend
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Kada se to dogodi, sigurno je
14:41
which is set to overwhelm our policing capacity in the West.
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da će preopteretiti policijske kapacitete na zapadu.
14:45
The drugs policy which we've had in place for 40 years
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Zakonske regulative koje postoje oko 40 godina
14:49
is long overdue for a very serious rethink,
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su odavno zrele za ozbiljne promjene.
14:54
in my opinion.
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Tako ja mislim.
14:56
Now, the recession.
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Sada o recesiji.
14:58
Well, organized crime has already adapted
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Organizovani kriminal se već veoma dobro
15:00
very well to the recession.
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prilagodio recesiji.
15:02
Not surprising, the most opportunistic industry
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Ne iznenađujuće, najotpornija industrija
15:04
in the whole world.
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na cijelome svijetu.
15:06
And it has no rules to its regulatory system.
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I nema pravila u svom regulatornom sistemu.
15:10
Except, of course, it has two business risks:
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Izuzev naravno, što ima dva poslovna rizika
15:14
arrest by law enforcement,
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biti uhapšen od zakonskih tijela,
15:16
which is, frankly, the least of their worries,
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što je iskreno, njhova najmanja briga
15:18
and competition from other groups,
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i konkurencija drugih grupa,
15:21
i.e. a bullet in the back of the head.
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kao npr. dobiti metak u potiljak.
15:23
What they've done is they've shifted their operations.
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Ono što su napravili je da su premjestili svoje operacije.
15:26
People don't smoke as much dope, or visit prostitutes quite so frequently
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Manje se puši trava ili se ne ide prostitutkama tako često
15:30
during a recession.
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za vrijeme recesije.
15:32
And so instead, they have invaded financial
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Umjesto toga oni se u velikom stilu bave
15:34
and corporate crime in a big way,
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finansijskim i korporativnivnim kriminalom,
15:36
but above all, two sectors,
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prije svega na dva načina
15:38
and that is counterfeit goods
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falsifikovanjem robe
15:41
and cybercrime.
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i kriminalu na internetu.
15:43
And it's been terribly successful.
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I tu su nevjerovatno uspješni.
15:45
I would like to introduce you to Mr. Pringle.
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Želio bih vam predstaviti gosp. Pringleja.
15:48
Or perhaps I should say, more accurately, Señor Pringle.
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Ili bolje rečeno Señor Pringleja.
15:52
I was introduced to this bit of kit by a Brazilian cybercriminal.
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Ovu opremu mi je pokazao kompjuterski kriminalac iz Brazila.
15:56
We sat in a car on the Avenue Paulista
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Sjedili smo u autu u Aveniji Paulista
15:58
in São Paulo, together.
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u Sao Paulou.
16:00
Hooked it up to my laptop,
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Priključio je to na moj laptop,
16:02
and within about five minutes he had penetrated
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i u roku pet minuta on je ušao
16:05
the computer security system
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u kompjuterski sigurnosni sistem
16:07
of a major Brazilian bank.
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jedne od glavnih brazilskih banaka.
16:10
It's really not that difficult.
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Uopšte nije teško.
16:12
And it's actually much easier because
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U stvari je dosta jednostavno jer,
16:15
the fascinating thing about cybercrime
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fascinantna stvar u vezi virtualnog kriminala
16:17
is that it's not so much the technology.
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je da se tu ne radi puno o tehnologiji.
16:21
The key to cybercrime is what we call social engineering.
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Ključ virtualnog kriminala je ono što zovemo društveni inžinjering.
16:25
Or to use the technical term for it,
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Ili kada bi koristili tehnički izraz za to,
16:27
there's one born every minute.
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svake minute se neko rodi.
16:30
You would not believe how easy it is
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Ne bi vjerovali kako je lako
16:33
to persuade people to do things with their computers
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nagovoriti ljude da čine sa svojim kompjuterom stvari
16:36
which are objectively not in their interest.
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koje objektivno nisu u njihovom interesu.
16:39
And it was very soon
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I brzo se dogodilo
16:41
when the cybercriminals learned that the quickest way to do this,
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da su kriminalci naučili kako to da urade na najbrži način,
16:43
of course, the quickest way to a person's wallet
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naravno, najbrži način do nečijeg novčanika
16:47
is through the promise of sex and love.
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jeste obećati seks i ljubav.©
16:50
I expect some of you remember the ILOVEYOU virus,
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Vjerujem da se neki od vas sjećaju virusa zvanog I-Love-You,
16:53
one of the very great worldwide viruses that came.
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jednog od najboljih virusa koji se bio pojavio po cijelom svijetu.
16:57
I was very fortunate when the ILOVEYOU virus came out,
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Bio sam veoma sretan kada se taj virus pojavio
17:00
because the first person I received it from
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jer prva osoba koja mi ga je poslala
17:03
was an ex-girlfriend of mine.
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bila je moja bivša djevojka.
17:05
Now, she harbored all sorts of sentiments and emotions towards me at the time,
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Prema meni je gajila razne vrste osjećaja i emocija
17:10
but love was not amongst them.
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ali ljubavi nije bilo među njima.
17:12
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
17:14
And so as soon as I saw this drop into my inbox,
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Pa čim sam vidio tako nešto u svojoj elektronskoj pošti,
17:18
I dispatched it hastily to the recycle bin
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bez razmišljanja sam to obrisao,
17:21
and spared myself a very nasty infection.
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i poštedio se vrlo gadne infekcije.
17:26
So, cybercrime, do watch out for it.
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Dakle kompjuterski kriminal, pazite ga se.
17:30
One thing that we do know that the Internet is doing
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Jedna stvar u koju smo sigurni je da internet
17:32
is the Internet is assisting these guys.
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olakšava stvari ovim bićima.
17:35
These are mosquitos who carry the malarial parasite
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To su komarci koji nose virus malarije
17:38
which infests our blood when the mosy has had a free meal
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šireći zarazu tako što bi komarčić imao besplatan obrok
17:42
at our expense.
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na naš račun.
17:44
Now, Artesunate is a very effective drug
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Artesunate je vrlo efikasan lijek
17:47
at destroying the parasite in the early days
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kod uništvanja parazita koji je u ranoj fazi
17:50
of infection.
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infekcije.
17:52
But over the past year or so,
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Ali u toku protekle godine
17:54
researchers in Cambodia have discovered
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istražitelji u Kambođi su otkrili
17:57
that what's happening is
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kako se događa da su
18:00
the malarial parasite is developing a resistance.
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paraziti malarije postali imuni na lijekove.
18:03
And they fear that the reason why it's developing a resistance
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I oni se plaše da je razlog tomu
18:06
is because Cambodians can't afford the drugs on the commercial market,
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što Kambođanci nemaju uslova da kupe lijekove u radnjama
18:10
and so they buy it from the Internet.
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tako da ih kupuju putem interneta.
18:13
And these pills contain only low doses
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A te tablete sadrže svega male doze
18:15
of the active ingredient.
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aktivnog sastojka protiv parazita.
18:17
Which is why
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Što je i uzrok
18:19
the parasite is beginning to develop a resistance.
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razvijanju otpora kod parazita.
18:23
The reason I say this
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Razlog zašto ovo govorim
18:25
is because we have to know
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je što mi moramo znati
18:27
that organized crime
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da organizovani kriminal
18:29
impacts all sorts of areas of our lives.
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utiče na sva moguća polja našeg života.
18:32
You don't have to sleep with prostitutes
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Ne morate spavati sa prostitutkama
18:35
or take drugs
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ili drogirati se
18:37
in order to have a relationship with organized crime.
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kako bi bili imali veze sa organizovanim kriminalom.
18:39
They affect our bank accounts.
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Oni utiču na naše bankovne račune.
18:41
They affect our communications, our pension funds.
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Oni utiču na naše komunikacije, penziona osiguranja.
18:43
They even affect the food that we eat
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Oni čak utiču na hranu koju jedemo
18:47
and our governments.
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i na naše vlade.
18:49
This is no longer an issue
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Ovo više nije stvar
18:52
of Sicilians from Palermo and New York.
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Sicilijanaca iz Palerma i New Yorka.
18:55
There is no romance involved with gangsters
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Sa ovim kriminalcima nema romantike.
18:58
in the 21st Century.
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U 21. vijeku
19:00
This is a mighty industry,
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ovo je moćna industrija
19:03
and it creates instability and violence
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koja proizvodi nestabilnost i nasilje
19:06
wherever it goes.
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gdje god se pojavi.
19:08
It is a major economic force
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Jedna je od glavnih ekonomskih sila
19:10
and we need to take it very, very seriously.
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koju moramo uzeti vrlo, vrlo ozbiljno.
19:14
It's been a privilege talking to you.
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Bila mi je čast držati vam izlaganje.
19:16
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam mnogo.
19:18
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Misha Glenny - Underworld investigatorJournalist Misha Glenny leaves no stone unturned (and no failed state unexamined) in his excavation of criminal globalization.
Why you should listen
In minute detail, Misha Glenny's 2008 book McMafia illuminates the byzantine outlines of global organized crime. Whether it's pot smugglers in British Columbia, oil/weapons/people traffickers in Eastern Europe, Japanese yakuza or Nigerian scammers, to research this magisterial work Glenny penetrated the convoluted, globalized and franchised modern underworld -- often at considerable personal risk.
The book that resulted is an exhaustive look at an unseen industry that Glenny believes may account for 15% of the world's GDP.
Legal society ignores this world at its peril, but Glenny suggests that conventional law enforcement might not be able to combat a problem whose roots lie in global instability.
While covering the Central Europe beat for the Guardian and the BBC, Glenny wrote several acclaimed books on the fall of Yugoslavia and the rise of the Balkan nations. He's researching a new book on cybercrime, of which he says: "The key to cybercrime is what we call social engineering. Or to use the technical term for it, there's one born every minute."
Watch TED's exclusive video Q&A with Glenny: "Behind the Scenes of McMafia" >>
Misha Glenny | Speaker | TED.com