TED2010
Esther Duflo: Social experiments to fight poverty
Ester Duflo: Socijalni eksperimenti za borbu protiv siromaštva
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Ublažavanje siromaštva je nagađanje više nego nauka, te nedostatak podataka o utjecaju međunarodne pomoći otvara daljnja pitanja o tome kako pomoći. Međutim pobjednik Clark Medalje - Esther Duflo tvrdi da je moguće odlučiti koji napori za razvoj pomažu a koji odmažu - testiranjem rezultata sa randomiziranim probama.
Esther Duflo - Development economist
Esther Duflo takes economics out of the lab and into the field to discover the causes of poverty and means to eradicate it. Full bio
Esther Duflo takes economics out of the lab and into the field to discover the causes of poverty and means to eradicate it. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
So here it is. You can check: I am short, I'm French,
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Dakle, ovdje je: Možete vidjeti, niska sam, ja sam Francuskinja.
00:20
I have a pretty strong French accent,
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Imam prilično jak francuski naglasak,
00:22
so that's going to be clear in a moment.
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i to će biti prilično jasno za koji moment.
00:26
Maybe a sobering thought
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Možda otrežnjujuća pomisao
00:28
and something you all know about.
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i nešto o čemu vi svi znate.
00:30
And I suspect many of you gave
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I pretpostavljam, mnogi od vas su dali
00:32
something to the people of Haiti this year.
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nešto ljudima Haitija ove godine.
00:35
And there is something else
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Ima i nešto drugo
00:37
I believe in the back of your mind
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u što ja vjerujem, u pozadini vašeg uma,
00:39
you also know.
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vi također znate
00:41
That is, every day,
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da, svakodnevno,
00:43
25,000 children die
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25,000 djece umre
00:45
of entirely preventable causes.
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zbog potpuno zaustavljivih uzroka.
00:48
That's a Haiti earthquake every eight days.
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To je zemljotres u Haitiju svakih osam dana.
00:51
And I suspect many of you probably gave something
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I pretpostavljam da su mnogi od vas dali nešto
00:53
towards that problem as well,
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za taj problem također,
00:55
but somehow it doesn't happen
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ali nekako se to ne dešava
00:57
with the same intensity.
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sa istim intenzitetom.
00:59
So why is that?
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Pa, zašto je to slučaj?
01:02
Well, here is a thought experiment for you.
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Dakle, evo jedan misaoni eksperiment za vas.
01:05
Imagine you have a few million dollars that you've raised --
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Zamislite da imate par miliona dolara koje ste skupili.
01:07
maybe you're a politician in a developing country
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Možda ste političar u nekoj zemlji u razvoju,
01:10
and you have a budget to spend. You want to spend it on the poor:
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i imate budžet da potrošite; želite da ga potrošite na siromašne
01:13
How do you go about it?
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Kako da to uradite?
01:16
Do you believe the people who tell you
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Da li vjerujete ljudima koji kažu
01:18
that all we need to do is to spend money?
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da sve treba uraditi je potrošiti pare,
01:20
That we know how to eradicate poverty,
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da mi znamo kako iskorjeniti siromaštvo
01:23
we just need to do more?
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samo trebamo raditi vise?
01:25
Or do you believe the people who tell you that
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Ili vjerujete ljudima koji kažu da
01:27
aid is not going to help, on the contrary it might hurt,
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finansijiska pomoć neće pomoći, nasuprot možda će pogoršati stanje,
01:30
it might exacerbate corruption, dependence, etc.?
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možda će pogoršati korupciju, zavisnost, itd.?
01:34
Or maybe you turn to the past.
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Ili se možda okrenemo prošlosti.
01:36
After all, we have spent billions of dollars on aid.
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Na kraju krajeva, mi smo potrošili milijarde dolara na finansijisku pomoć.
01:39
Maybe you look at the past and see.
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Možda pogledamo u prošlost i vidimo
01:41
Has it done any good?
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da li je postignuto išta dobro.
01:43
And, sadly, we don't know.
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Ali, nažalost, ne znamo.
01:45
And worst of all, we will never know.
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I najgore od svega, nikada nećemo znati.
01:49
And the reason is that -- take Africa for example.
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A razlog je - uzmimo Afriku kao primjer -
01:51
Africans have already got a lot of aid.
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Afrikanci su dobili mnogo finansijiske pomoći.
01:53
These are the blue bars.
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To su plavi stupci na grafikonu
01:55
And the GDP in Africa is not making much progress.
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I BDP u Africi nije mnogo napredovao.
01:58
Okay, fine. How do you know what
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Ok, uredu. Kako da znamo
02:00
would have happened without the aid?
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šta bi se desilo bez finansijiske pomoći?
02:02
Maybe it would have been much worse,
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Možda bi bilo mnogo gore.
02:05
or maybe it would have been better.
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Ili bi možda bili bolje.
02:07
We have no idea. We don't know what the counterfactual is.
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Mi ne znamo. Mi nemamo kontračinjenične podatke.
02:10
There's only one Africa.
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U svijetu postoji samo jedna Afrika.
02:12
So what do you do?
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Dakle, šta da radimo?
02:14
To give the aid, and hope and pray that something comes out of it?
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Da damo finansijisku pomoć i da se molimo da se nešto dobro desi?
02:18
Or do you focus on your everyday life
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Ili da se fokusiramo na naš svakodnevni život
02:21
and let the earthquake every eight days
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i dozvolimo da se zemljotres svakih osam dana
02:23
continue to happen?
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i dalje dešava?
02:25
The thing is, if we don't know
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Stvar je u tome, da ako ne znamo
02:27
whether we are doing any good,
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da li radimo ikakvo dobro,
02:29
we are not any better
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mi nismo ništa bolji
02:31
than the Medieval doctors and their leeches.
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od doktora Srednjeg Vijeka, i njihovih pijavica.
02:34
Sometimes the patient gets better, sometimes the patient dies.
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Ponekad pacijent ozdravi, ponekad taj pacijent umre.
02:37
Is it the leeches? Is it something else?
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Zbog pijavica? Zbog nečega drugoga?
02:40
We don't know.
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Mi ne znamo.
02:42
So here are some other questions.
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Dakle, evo par drugih pitanja.
02:44
They're smaller questions,
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To su manja pitanja,
02:46
but they are not that small.
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ali nisu baš tako mala pitanja.
02:48
Immunization, that's the cheapest way
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Imunizacija, to je najjeftiniji način
02:51
to save a child's life.
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da se spasi život djeteta.
02:53
And the world has spent a lot of money on it:
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I svijet je potrošio dosta novaca na to.
02:55
The GAVI and the Gates Foundations
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GAVI i Gejts fondacije
02:57
are each pledging a lot of money towards it,
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obje zalažu mnogo novca za imunizaciju.
02:59
and developing countries themselves have been doing a lot of effort.
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Čak i zemlje u razvoju same ulažu dosta truda.
03:02
And yet, every year
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I opet, svake godine,
03:04
at least 25 million children
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najmanje 25 miliona djece
03:06
do not get the immunization they should get.
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ne dobija potrebnu imunizaciju.
03:09
So this is what you call a "last mile problem."
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Ovo je šta mi zovemo "problem posljednje milje."
03:12
The technology is there,
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Tehnologija je tu.
03:14
the infrastructure is there,
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Infrakstruktura je tu.
03:16
and yet it doesn't happen.
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I opet, ništa ne uspijeva.
03:18
So you have your million.
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Dakle imamo milion.
03:20
How do you use your million
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Kako koristiti taj milion
03:22
to solve this last mile problem?
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da riješimo problem posljednje milje?
03:24
And here's another question:
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I evo još jedno pitanje:
03:26
Malaria. Malaria kills almost
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Malarija. Malarije ubija skoro
03:29
900,000 people every year,
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900,000 ljudi svake godine,
03:32
most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa,
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uglavnom ljudi u sub-saharskoj Africi,
03:34
most of them under five.
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većina mlađih od pet godina.
03:36
In fact, that is the leading cause of under-five mortality.
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U stvari to je vodeći razlog smrtnosti za mlađe od pet godina.
03:39
We already know how to kill malaria,
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Mi već znamo kako ubiti malariju,
03:42
but some people come to you and say,
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ali neki ljudi dođu i kažu.
03:44
"You have your millions. How about bed nets?"
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"Imaš milione. Šta mislite o mrežama za krevete?"
03:47
Bed nets are very cheap.
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Mreže za krevet su vrlo jeftine.
03:49
For 10 dollars, you can manufacture and ship
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Za 10 dolara, možemo proizvesti i poslati
03:52
an insecticide treated bed net
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insekticidom tretirane mreže za krevete,
03:54
and you can teach someone to use them.
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i možemo nekome objasniti kako da ih koriste.
03:56
And, not only do they protect the people who sleep under them,
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I, ne samo da one štite ljude koji spavaju pod njima,
03:59
but they have these great contagion benefits.
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nego imaju i odlične koristi protiv daljne zaraze.
04:01
If half of a community sleeps under a net,
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Ako pola zajednice spava pod mrežama,
04:04
the other half also benefits
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druga polovina ima koristi od toga
04:06
because the contagion of the disease spread.
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jer se spriječava daljnje širenje bolesti.
04:09
And yet, only a quarter of kids at risk sleep under a net.
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I opet, samo četvrtina djece pod rizikom spava pod mrežom.
04:12
Societies should be willing to go out
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Društva bi trebala biti voljna da se potrude
04:14
and subsidize the net, give them for free,
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i da sponzorišu mreže, da ih daju besplatno,
04:16
or, for that matter, pay people to use them
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ili, u tu svrhu, platiti ljudima da ih koriste
04:18
because of those contagion benefits.
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zbog zaustavljanja daljnjeg širenja bolesti.
04:20
"Not so fast," say other people.
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"Ne tako brzo," kažu drugi ljudi.
04:22
"If you give the nets for free,
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"Ako damo mreže besplatno,
04:24
people are not going to value them.
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ljudi ih neće cijeniti.
04:26
They're not going to use them,
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Neće ih koristiti,
04:28
or at least they're not going to use them as bed nets,
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ili ih bar neće koristiti kao mreže za krevet,
04:30
maybe as fishing nets."
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možda za ribarenje."
04:32
So, what do you do?
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Dakle, šta da radimo?
04:34
Do you give the nets for free to maximize coverage,
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Da damo mreže besplatno, da maksimiziramo pokrivenost?
04:36
or do you make people pay
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Ili da tražimo da ljudi plate
04:38
in order to make sure that they really value them?
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kako bismo bili sigurni da ljudi razumiju vrijednost tih mreža?
04:40
How do you know?
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Kako da znamo?
04:42
And a third question: Education.
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I treće pitanje: obrazovanje.
04:44
Maybe that's the solution, maybe we should send kids to school.
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Možda je to riješenje. Možda bi trebali poslati djecu u školu.
04:46
But how do you do that?
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Kako da to uradimo?
04:48
Do you hire teachers? Do you build more schools?
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Da li da uposlimo profesore? Da izgradimo nove škole?
04:50
Do you provide school lunch?
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Da li da osiguramo ručak u školi?
04:52
How do you know?
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Kako da znamo?
04:54
So here is the thing.
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Dakle, ovako stvari stoje.
04:56
I cannot answer the big question,
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Ja ne mogu odgovoriti na veliko pitanje,
04:58
whether aid did any good or not.
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da li je finansijiska pomoć uspješna ili ne,
05:00
But these three questions, I can answer them.
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ali ova tri pitanja, ja mogu odgovoriti.
05:04
It's not the Middle Ages anymore,
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Ovo nije Srednji vijek više.
05:06
it's the 21st century.
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Ovo je 21. vijek.
05:08
And in the 20th century,
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I u 20. vijeku,
05:10
randomized, controlled trials
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randomizirani, kontrolirani pokušaji
05:12
have revolutionized medicine
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su revolucionirali medicinu
05:14
by allowing us to distinguish
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dozvolivši nam da razlikujemo
05:16
between drugs that work
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lijekove koji su uspješni
05:18
and drugs that don't work.
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i lijekove koji nisu.
05:20
And you can do the same
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I možemo uraditi istu stvar
05:22
randomized, controlled trial for social policy.
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randomizirani, kontrolirani pokušaj za društvenu politiku.
05:25
You can put social innovation to the same
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Možemo i za društvenu inovaciju koristiti iste
05:27
rigorous, scientific tests
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rigorozne, naučne testove
05:29
that we use for drugs.
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koje koristimo za lijekove.
05:31
And in this way, you can take the guesswork
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I na taj način, možemo izbaciti nagađanje
05:34
out of policy-making
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iz političkih odlučivanja
05:36
by knowing what works,
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ako znamo šta radi,
05:38
what doesn't work and why.
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i šta ne radi, te zašto.
05:40
And I'll give you some examples with those three questions.
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I dati ću vam par primjera za ta tri pitanja.
05:44
So I start with immunization.
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Dakle ja krenem sa imunizacijom.
05:46
Here's Udaipur District, Rajasthan. Beautiful.
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Ovo je Udaipur distrikt, Rajasthan, prekrasno.
05:49
Well, when I started working there,
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Kada sam ja krenula tamo raditi,
05:51
about one percent of children
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oko jedan posto djece
05:53
were fully immunized.
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je bilo u potpunosti imunizirano.
05:55
That's bad, but there are places like that.
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To je loše, ali takva mjesta postoje.
05:58
Now, it's not because the vaccines are not there --
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Znaci, to nije zbog toga što vakcine nisu tu.
06:00
they are there and they are free --
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Vakcine su tu, i besplatne su.
06:02
and it's not because parents do not care about their kids.
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I nije zato što roditelji ne mare za svojom djecom.
06:05
The same child that is not immunized against measles,
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Isto dijete koje nije imunizirano protiv ospica,
06:08
if they do get measles, parents will spend
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ako dobije ospice, roditelji će platiti
06:10
thousands of rupees to help them.
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hiljade rupija da mu pomognu.
06:12
So you get these empty village subcenters
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Tako da dobijemo ove prazne seoske polu centre
06:14
and crowded hospitals.
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i prepune bolnice.
06:16
So what is the problem?
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Šta je problem u svemu?
06:18
Well, part of the problem, surely, is people do not fully understand.
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Pa, dio problema je, vjerovatno, da ljudi ne razumiju sve to u potpunosti.
06:21
After all, in this country as well,
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Na kraju krajeva, u ovoj zemlji također,
06:23
all sorts of myths and misconceptions
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mnoge vrste mitova i zabluda
06:25
go around immunization.
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postoje oko imuniziranja.
06:28
So if that's the case, that's difficult,
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Tako da ako je to slučaj, to je problematično
06:30
because persuasion is really difficult.
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jer je nagovaranje vrlo teško.
06:33
But maybe there is another problem as well.
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Ali možda postoji drugi problem također.
06:35
It's going from intention to action.
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To je prelazak sa namjere na djelovanje.
06:38
Imagine you are a mother
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Zamislite da ste vi majka
06:40
in Udaipur District, Rajasthan.
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u Udaipur distriktu, Rajasthanu.
06:42
You have to walk a few kilometers to get your kids immunized.
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Morate hodati par kilometara da biste imunizirali svoju djecu.
06:45
And maybe when you get there, what you find is this:
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I možda kada dođete tamo, šta nađete je ovo.
06:47
The subcenter is closed. Ao you have to come back,
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Centar za imunizaciju je zatvoren, morate doći ponovo.
06:49
and you are so busy and you have so many other things to do,
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I vi ste zauzeti, imate mnogo drugih stvari za uraditi,
06:52
you will always tend to postpone and postpone,
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Uvijek ćete polušati da odgodite i odgodite,
06:54
and eventually it gets too late.
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i na kraju će biti prekasno.
06:56
Well, if that's the problem, then that's much easier.
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Dakle, ako je to problem, to je mnogo lakše
06:59
Because A, we can make it easy,
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jer, A, možemo proces pojednostaviti,
07:02
and B, we can maybe
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i, B, možda možemo
07:04
give people a reason to act today,
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dati ljudima razlog da djeluju danas,
07:06
rather than wait till tomorrow.
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radije nego sutra.
07:08
So these are simple ideas, but we didn't know.
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Ovo su neke jednostavne ideje, ali nismo znali.
07:10
So let's try them.
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Pokušajmo ih onda.
07:12
So what we did is we did a randomized, controlled trial
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Znaći, šta smo uradili su randomizirani kontrolirani pokušaji
07:15
in 134 villages in Udaipur Districts.
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u 134 sela u Udaipur distriktima.
07:17
So the blue dots
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Plave tačke
07:19
are selected randomly.
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su nasumično odabrane.
07:21
We made it easy -- I'll tell you how in a moment.
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Pojednostavili smo proces. Objasniti ću to za koji moment.
07:24
In the red dots, we made it easy
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U crvenim tačkama, pojednostavili smo proces
07:26
and gave people a reason to act now.
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i dali ljudima razlog da djeluju sada.
07:28
The white dots are comparisons, nothing changed.
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Bijele tačke su usporedbe, ništa se nije mijenjalo.
07:31
So we make it easy by organizing
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Znaći pojednostavili smo to organizirajući
07:33
this monthly camp where people can
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mjesećni kamp gdje ljudi mogu
07:35
get their kids immunized.
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dovesti djecu na imunizaciju.
07:37
And then you make it easy
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A onda smo to pojednostavili
07:39
and give a reason to act now
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i dali im razlog da djeluju sada
07:41
by adding a kilo of lentils for each immunization.
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dodajući kilogram leća za svaku imunizaciju.
07:44
Now, a kilo of lentils is tiny.
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Znamo da je kilogram leća malen.
07:47
It's never going to convince anybody
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Nikada neće nikoga nagovoriti
07:49
to do something that they don't want to do.
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da uradi nešto što ne želi ra uradi.
07:51
On the other hand, if your problem is you tend to postpone,
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U drugu ruku, ako je tvoj problem isključivo odgađanje,
07:54
then it might give you a reason to act today
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onda ti možda da razlog da djeluješ danas
07:56
rather than later.
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radije nego kasnije.
07:58
So what do we find?
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Šta smo otkrili?
08:00
Well, beforehand, everything is the same.
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Dakle, prije, sve je bilo isto.
08:02
That's the beauty of randomization.
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To je ljepota randomizacije.
08:04
Afterwards,
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Kasnije,
08:06
the camp -- just having the camp --
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kamp, samo postojanje kampa,
08:08
increases immunization from six percent to 17 percent.
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povećalo je imunizaciju sa šest posto na 17 posto.
08:10
That's full immunization.
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To je puna imunizacija.
08:12
That's not bad, that's a good improvement.
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To nije loše. To je dobar napredak.
08:14
Add the lentils and you reach to 38 percent.
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Dodajući leća i stižemp do 38 posto.
08:17
So here you've got your answer.
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Dakle ovdje imate vaš odgovor.
08:19
Make it easy and give a kilo of lentils,
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Pojednostavite proces, i dajte kilogram leća,
08:21
you multiply immunization rate by six.
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i umnožit ćete imunizaciju šest puta.
08:24
Now, you might say, "Well, but it's not sustainable.
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Sada, možda ćete reći. "Da, ali to nije održivo.
08:26
We cannot keep giving lentils to people."
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Ne možemo konstantno davati leća ljudima."
08:28
Well, it turns out it's wrong economics,
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Pa, to je pogrešna računica
08:30
because it is cheaper
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jer je jeftinije
08:32
to give lentils than not to give them.
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davati leća nego ne davati ih.
08:34
Since you have to pay for the nurse anyway,
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Jer morate platiti medicinsku sestru ionako,
08:36
the cost per immunization
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trošak po imunizaciji
08:38
ends up being cheaper if you give incentives than if you don't.
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na kraju ispada niži ako damo inicijative nego ako ih ne damo.
08:42
How about bed nets?
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A šta je sa mrežama za krevete?
08:44
Should you give them for free, or should you ask people to pay for them?
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Da ih damo besplatno, ili da pitamo ljude da plate za njih?
08:47
So the answer hinges
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Dakle odgovor ovisi
08:49
on the answer to three simple questions.
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od odgovora na tri jednostavna pitanja.
08:51
One is: If people must pay for a bed net,
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Prvo je: Ako ljudi moraju platiti za mrežu,
08:54
are they going to purchase them?
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da li će je kupiti?
08:56
The second one is:
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Drugo pitanje je:
08:58
If I give bed nets for free,
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Ako im damo mreže besplatno,
09:00
are people going to use them?
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da li će ih koristiti?
09:02
And the third one is:
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I treće pitanje je:
09:04
Do free bed nets discourage future purchase?
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Da li besplatne mreže obeshrabruju kupovinu u budućnosti?
09:06
The third one is important
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Treće pitanje je vrlo bitno
09:08
because if we think people get used to handouts,
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jer, ako pomislimo da će se ljudi naviknuti na izdatke,
09:11
it might destroy markets to distribute free bed nets.
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možda uspijemo uništiti market za distribuciju mreža za krevet.
09:14
Now this is a debate that has generated
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Ovo je debata koja je proizvela
09:16
a lot of emotion and angry rhetoric.
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mnogo emocija i ljutih retorika.
09:19
It's more ideological than practical,
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Više je ideološka nego praktičma.
09:21
but it turns out it's an easy question.
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ali ispadne da je jednostavno pitanje.
09:23
We can know the answer to this question.
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Možemo znati odgovor na to pitanje.
09:25
We can just run an experiment.
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Možemo samo pokušati eksperiment.
09:27
And many experiments have been run, and they all have the same results,
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I mnoge eksperimente, i svi će imati iste rezultate,
09:29
so I'm just going to talk to you about one.
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tako da ću ja govoriti samo o jednom.
09:32
And this one that was in Kenya,
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I taj je bio u Keniji,
09:34
they went around and distributed to people
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otišli su okolo i podijelili ljudima
09:36
vouchers, discount vouchers.
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bonove, bonove za popust.
09:38
So people with their voucher
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Tako da ljudi sa svojim bonovima
09:40
could get the bed net in the local pharmacy.
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mogu dobiti mrežu za krevet u lokalnim farmacijama.
09:42
And some people get 100 percent discount,
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I neki ljudi dobiju 100 % sniženje,
09:45
and some people get 20 percent discounts,
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a neki drugi 20 % sniženja,
09:47
and some people get 50 percent discount, etc.
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i neki drugi ljudi dobiju 50 % sniženja, itd.
09:50
And now we can see what happens.
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I sada možemo vidjeti šta se će se desiti.
09:52
So, how about the purchasing?
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Dakle, šta se dešava sa kupovinom?
09:54
Well, what you can see is that
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Ono što možemo zapaziti je
09:56
when people have to pay for their bed nets,
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da kada ljudi moraju platiti za mreže,
09:58
the coverage rate really falls down a lot.
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stopa pokrivenosti uveliko opadne.
10:01
So even with partial subsidy,
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Dakle i sa djelimičnim popustom --
10:03
three dollars is still not the full cost of a bed net,
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tri dolara nije puna cijena proizvodnje jedne mreže za krevet.
10:06
and now you only have 20 percent of the people with the bed nets,
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I sada imamo samo 20 posto ljudi sa tim mrežama za krevete,
10:08
you lose the health immunity, that's not great.
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gubimo zdravstveni imunitet, to nije dobro.
10:11
Second thing is, how about the use?
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Druga stvar je, šta se dešava sa korištenjem tih mreža?
10:13
Well, the good news is, people, if they have the bed nets,
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Pa, dobre vijesti su da ljudi ako imaju te mreže,
10:15
will use the bed nets regardless of how they got it.
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će ih koristiti be obzira na to kako su ih dobili.
10:18
If they get it for free, they use it.
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Ako su ih dobili besplatno, koriste ih.
10:20
If they have to pay for it, they use it.
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Ako su platili za njih, koriste ih.
10:22
How about the long term?
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Šta se dešava u dugoročnom planu?
10:24
In the long term,
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U budučnosti,
10:26
people who got the free bed nets,
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ljudi koji su dobili mreže besplatno,
10:28
one year later, were offered the option
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godinu poslije, su dobili ponudu
10:30
to purchase a bed net at two dollars.
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da kupe mrežu za krevet za dva dolara.
10:33
And people who got the free one
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I ljudi koji su dobili jednu besplatno
10:35
were actually more likely to purchase the second one
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su ustvari kupili drugu mrežu sa većom vjerovatnoćom
10:38
than people who didn't get a free one.
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nego ljudi koji nisu dobili prvu besplatno.
10:40
So people do not get used to handouts; they get used to nets.
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Dakle ljudi se ne naviknu na besplatne izdatke, nego na te mreže.
10:43
Maybe we need to give them a little bit more credit.
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Možda im moramo dati malo više kredibilnosti.
10:48
So, that's for bed nets. So you will think, "That's great.
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To je primjer mreža za krevet. A vi ćete pomisliti, "To je super.
10:50
You know how to immunize kids, you know how to give bed nets."
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Sada znamo kako imunizirati, znamo kako davati mreže za krevete."
10:53
But what politicians need is a range of options.
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Ali ono što političarima treba je niz mogućnosti.
10:56
They need to know: Out of all the things I could do,
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Oni moraju znati: Od svih stvari koje mogu uraditi,
10:59
what is the best way to achieve my goals?
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šta je najbolji način da postignem svoje ciljeve?
11:02
So suppose your goal is to get kids into school.
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Pa zamislite da je vaš cilj da podstaknete djecu da idu u školu.
11:05
There are so many things you could do. You could pay for uniforms,
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Postoje mnoge opcije koje možete uraditi. Možete platiti za uniforme,
11:08
you could eliminate fees, you could build latrines,
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uklonuti potrebne naknade, izgraditi komunalne toalete,
11:10
you could give girls sanitary pads, etc., etc.
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možete izgraditi higjenske uloške za djevojke, itd.. itd.
11:13
So what's the best?
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Šta je najbolja opcija?
11:15
Well, at some level, we think
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Pa, na nekom nivou, mi vjerujemo
11:17
all of these things should work.
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da bi svaka od ovih trebala biti uspješna.
11:19
So, is that sufficient? If we think they should work intuitively,
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Pa, da li je to dovoljno, da mi intuitivno mislimo da bi opcije trebale raditi,
11:21
should we go for them?
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da ih pokušamo?
11:23
Well, in business, that's certainly not the way we would go about it.
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U biznisu, to definitivno nije način na koji bismo prišli ovom problemu.
11:27
Consider for example
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Razmotrimo na primjer
11:29
transporting goods.
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prevoz sredstava.
11:31
Before the canals were invented
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Prije nego su kanali izumljeni
11:33
in Britain before the Industrial Revolution,
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u Britaniji prije industrijiske revolucije,
11:36
goods used to go on horse carts.
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sredstva su prenošena konjskim zapregama.
11:38
And then canals were built,
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Onda su kanali izgrađeni,
11:40
and with the same horseman and the same horse,
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I sa tim istim jahačem i tim istim konjem,
11:43
you could carry ten times as much cargo.
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možemo prevoziti deset puta više tereta.
11:46
So should they have continued
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Dakle, da li su trebali nastaviti
11:48
to carry the goods on the horse carts, on the ground,
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da prevoze teret na tim konjskim zapregama, na terenu,
11:51
that they would eventually get there?
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koji bi na kraju stigli tu?
11:53
Well, if that had been the case,
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Pa, ako je to slučaj,
11:55
there would have been no Industrial Revolution.
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onda ne bi bilo industrijiske revolucije.
11:57
So why shouldn't we do the same with social policy?
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Zašto onda ne uradimo isto sa društvenom politikom?
12:00
In technology, we spend so much time
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Sa tehnologijom, mi provodimo toliko vremena
12:02
experimenting, fine-tuning,
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eksperimentirajući, ugađanjem,
12:04
getting the absolute cheapest way to do something,
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pronalazeći apsolutno najjeftinije načine da nešto uradimo,
12:06
so why aren't we doing that with social policy?
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dakle, zašto ne radimo istu stvar sa socijalnom politikom?
12:09
Well, with experiments, what you can do
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Pa, sa eksperimentima, šta možemo uraditi
12:11
is answer a simple question.
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je da odgovorimo na jednostavno pitanje.
12:13
Suppose you have 100 dollars to spend
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Zamislite da imamo 100 dolara da potrošimo
12:15
on various interventions.
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na različite intervencije.
12:17
How many extra years of education
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Koliko daljnjih godina obrazovanja
12:19
do you get for your hundred dollars?
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možemo ostvariti sa stotinu dolara?
12:21
Now I'm going to show you
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Sada ću da vam pokažem
12:23
what we get with various education interventions.
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šta dobijamo sa različitim obrazovnim intervencijama.
12:27
So the first ones are if you want the usual suspects,
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Dakle prvi su takozvani uobičajeni slučajevi,
12:29
hire teachers, school meals,
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uposliti nastavnike, jela u školi,
12:31
school uniforms, scholarships.
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školske uniforme, školarine.
12:33
And that's not bad. For your hundred dollars,
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I to nije loše. Za stotinu dolara
12:35
you get between one and three extra years of education.
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dobijemo između jedne i tri dodatne godine obrazovanja.
12:39
Things that don't work so well is bribing parents,
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Stvari koje ne rade tako dobro su potplaćivanje roditelja,
12:41
just because so many kids are already going to school
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jer mnogo učenika već ide u školu
12:44
that you end up spending a lot of money.
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tako da na kraju potrošimo dosta novca.
12:46
And here are the most surprising results.
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A ovo su najiznenađujući rezultati.
12:49
Tell people the benefits of education,
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Recite ljudima šta su predonsti obrazovanja.
12:52
that's very cheap to do.
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To je vrlo jeftino.
12:54
So for every hundred dollars you spend doing that,
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Tako da za svakih stotinu dolara potrošenih na to,
12:57
you get 40 extra years of education.
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dobijemo 40 dodatnih godina obrazovanja.
13:00
And, in places where there are worms,
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I u mjestima gdje imamo crve,
13:02
intestinal worms,
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crijevne crve,
13:04
cure the kids of their worms.
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izliječite djeci te crve.
13:06
And for every hundred dollars,
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I za svakih stotinu dolara,
13:08
you get almost 30 extra years of education.
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dobijemo 30 dodatnih godina obrazovanja.
13:11
So this is not your intuition,
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Dakle ovo nije vaša intuicija.
13:13
this is not what people would have gone for,
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To nisu stvari koje bi ljudi uradili,
13:15
and yet, these are the programs that work.
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i opet, to su programi koji su uspješni.
13:18
We need that kind of information, we need more of it,
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Nama su potrebne takve informacije. Treba nam što više toga.
13:20
and then we need to guide policy.
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I onda trebamo da vodimo politiku.
13:24
So now, I started from the big problem, and I couldn't answer it.
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Sada, počela sam od velikog problema, i nisam ga mogla odgovoriti.
13:27
And I cut it into smaller questions,
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I podjielila sam ga u manja pitanja,
13:30
and I have the answer to these smaller questions.
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a imam odgovore na manja pitanja.
13:32
And they are good, scientific, robust answers.
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I to su dobri, naučni, snažni odgovori.
13:36
So let's go back to Haiti for a moment.
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Vratimo se sada u Haiti na momenat.
13:39
In Haiti, about 200,000 people died --
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U Haitiju, oko 200 000 ljudi je umrlo.
13:43
actually, a bit more by the latest estimate.
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Ustvari, nešto više od posljednjeg mjerenja.
13:45
And the response of the world was great:
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I odgovor svijeta je bio odličan.
13:47
Two billion dollars got pledged just last month,
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Dvije milijarde dolara su obećane samo zadnji mjesec.
13:51
so that's about 10,000 dollars per death.
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To je oko 10 000 dolara po smrti.
13:53
That doesn't sound like that much when you think about it.
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To ne zvuči tako puno ako pomislite o tome.
13:56
But if we were willing to spend 10,000 dollars
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Ali ako smo spremni potrošiti 10 000 dolara
13:59
for every child under five who dies,
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za svako dijete ispod 5 godina koje umre,
14:02
that would be 90 billion per year
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to bi bilo 90 milijardi godišnje
14:05
just for that problem.
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samo za taj problem.
14:07
And yet it doesn't happen.
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Ali to se ne dešava.
14:09
So, why is that?
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Zašto?
14:11
Well, I think what part of the problem is that,
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Ja mislim da dio problema je da,
14:13
in Haiti, although the problem is huge,
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u Haitiju, iako je problem ogroman,
14:15
somehow we understand it, it's localized.
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nekako ga razumijemo, lokaliziran je.
14:17
You give your money to Doctors Without Borders,
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Ako damo novac Doktorima Bez Granica,
14:19
you give your money to Partners In Health,
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damo novac Partnerima u Zdravlju,
14:21
and they'll send in the doctors, and they'll send in the lumber,
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i oni ce ga potrošiti da šalju doktore, drvo,
14:24
and they'll helicopter things out and in.
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slati će stvari tamo i nazad.
14:27
And the problem of poverty is not like that.
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Problem sa siromaštvom nije takav.
14:29
So, first, it's mostly invisible;
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Kao prvo, uglavnom je nevidljiv.
14:31
second, it's huge;
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Drugo, prevelik je.
14:33
and third, we don't know whether we are doing the right thing.
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I treće, ne znamo kako da ga riješimo efikasno.
14:36
There's no silver bullet.
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Ne postoji srebreni metak.
14:38
You cannot helicopter people out of poverty.
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Ne možemo poslati helikoptere da spasimo siromaštvo.
14:40
And that's very frustrating.
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I to je vrlo uznemirijuće.
14:42
But look what we just did today.
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Ali pogledajmo šta smo upravo uradili danas.
14:45
I gave you three simple answers to three questions:
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Dala sam vam tri jednostavna odgovora na tri pitanja.
14:48
Give lentils to immunize people,
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Dajte leća da imuniziramo ljude,
14:50
provide free bed nets, deworm children.
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dajte besplatne mreže za krevete, i izliječite crve djeci.
14:52
With immunization or bed nets,
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Sa imunizacijom ili mrežama,
14:54
you can save a life for 300 dollars per life saved.
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možemo spasiti život za 300 dolara.
14:57
With deworming, you can get
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Sa liječenjem crva, možemo
14:59
an extra year of education for three dollars.
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dobiti dodatne godine obrazovanja.
15:02
So we cannot eradicate poverty just yet,
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Dakle ne možemo izliječiti sirmoaštvo još uvijek,
15:05
but we can get started.
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ali možemo krenuti.
15:07
And maybe we can get started small
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I možda je to mali početak
15:09
with things that we know are effective.
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sa stvarima za koje znamo da su efikasne.
15:12
Here's an example of how this can be powerful.
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Ovo je primjer kako ovo može biti efikasno.
15:14
Deworming.
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Liječenje crva.
15:16
Worms have a little bit of a problem grabbing the headlines.
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Crvi imaju mali problem da se nađu na početnim vijestima.
15:18
They are not beautiful and don't kill anybody.
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Nisu lijepi, i ne ubijaju nikoga.
15:21
And yet, when the young global leader in Davos
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Ali ipak, kada je mladi globalni vođa u Davosu
15:23
showed the numbers I gave you,
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pokazao statistike koje ste vidjeli,
15:25
they started Deworm the World.
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počeli su "Deworm the World".
15:27
And thanks to Deworm the World,
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I hvala "Deworm the World",
15:29
and the effort of many country governments and foundations,
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i trudu mnogih zemalja i fondacija,
15:31
20 million school-aged children got dewormed in 2009.
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20 miliona školskog uzrasta dijece je izliječeno u 2009.
15:34
So this evidence is powerful.
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Dokazi su uspješni.
15:36
It can prompt action.
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Može pokrenuti akciju.
15:38
So we should get started now.
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Pa počnimo sada.
15:40
It's not going to be easy.
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Sada, neće biti lahko.
15:42
It's a very slow process.
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To je spor proces.
15:44
You have to keep experimenting, and sometimes ideology
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Moramo eksperimentisati, i nekada se ideologije
15:46
has to be trumped by practicality.
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moraju skovati na osnovi praktičnosti.
15:48
And sometimes what works somewhere doesn't work elsewhere.
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I nekada nešto što radi negdje, ne radi svuda.
15:51
So it's a slow process,
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Dakle, spor proces,
15:53
but there is no other way.
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ali ne postoji drugi način.
15:55
These economics I'm proposing,
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Ova eknomija koju predlažem,
15:57
it's like 20th century medicine.
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je kao medicina 20. vijeka.
15:59
It's a slow, deliberative process
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Spor, detaljan proces
16:01
of discovery.
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otkrića.
16:03
There is no miracle cure,
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Ne postoje medicinska čuda,
16:05
but modern medicine is saving
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ali moderna medicina spašava
16:07
millions of lives every year,
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milione života svake godine,
16:09
and we can do the same thing.
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i mi možemo uraditi istu stvar.
16:13
And now, maybe, we can go back to the bigger question
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I sada, možda se možemo vratiti velikom pitanju
16:16
that I started with at the beginning.
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koje smo postavili na početku.
16:19
I cannot tell you
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Ne mogu vam reći
16:21
whether the aid we have spent in the past has made a difference,
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da li je finansijiska pomoć potrošena u prošlosti napravila promjene,
16:24
but can we come back here in 30 years
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ali se možemo vratiti ovdje za 30 godina
16:27
and say, "What we have done,
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i reći, "Šta smo uradili,
16:30
it really prompted a change for the better."
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je ustvari napravilo promjenu ka boljem."
16:33
I believe we can and I hope we will.
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Vjerujem da možemo, i nadam se da hoćemo.
16:35
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:37
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Esther Duflo - Development economistEsther Duflo takes economics out of the lab and into the field to discover the causes of poverty and means to eradicate it.
Why you should listen
2009 MacArthur fellow Esther Duflo is pushing the field of development economics by studying specific causal relationships that lead to or perpetuate poverty. She looks at close-to-home issues: household behavior, education, access to finance and health.
At MIT, she's the founder and director of the Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), a research network that evaluates social programs. It's concerned less with wide-ranging policy than with specific questions. Sample: If schoolkids could get their uniforms for free, would attendance go up? What's an effective way to reward mothers for immunizing their babies? Randomized trials offer new insights toward creating global equity and prosperity. Her work may blur the lines between economics and activism, but it's a role Duflo not only considers comfortable but vital.
Her new book is Poor Economics, with Abhijit W. Banerjee.
Esther Duflo | Speaker | TED.com