TED2010
Esther Duflo: Social experiments to fight poverty
Ester Duflo: socijalni eksperimenti u borbi protiv siromaštva
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Ublažavanje siromaštva je više nagađanje nego nauka, a nedostatak podataka o uticaju pomoći podstiče da se zapitamo kako da je obezbedimo. Ali dobitnica Clark medalje, Ester Duflo (Esther Duflo) kaže da je, nasumičnim testiranjem rešenja, moguće znati koji razvojni napori pomažu, a koji štete.
Esther Duflo - Development economist
Esther Duflo takes economics out of the lab and into the field to discover the causes of poverty and means to eradicate it. Full bio
Esther Duflo takes economics out of the lab and into the field to discover the causes of poverty and means to eradicate it. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
So here it is. You can check: I am short, I'm French,
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Dakle, možete videti, niska sam, Francuskinja sam,
00:20
I have a pretty strong French accent,
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imam prilično jak francusk akcenat
00:22
so that's going to be clear in a moment.
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što će biti jasno za koji trenutak.
00:26
Maybe a sobering thought
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Možda otrežnjujuća misao
00:28
and something you all know about.
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i nešto za šta svi znate.
00:30
And I suspect many of you gave
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Pretpostavljam da su mnogi od vas dali
00:32
something to the people of Haiti this year.
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nešto ljudima Haitija ove godine.
00:35
And there is something else
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I postoji još nešto
00:37
I believe in the back of your mind
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za šta sam uverena da, u svojoj podsvesti
00:39
you also know.
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takođe znate,
00:41
That is, every day,
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a to je da svakodnevno
00:43
25,000 children die
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25 000 dece umre
00:45
of entirely preventable causes.
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usled uzroka koje je moguće sprečiti.
00:48
That's a Haiti earthquake every eight days.
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To je kao zemljotres na Haitiju na svakih 8 dana.
00:51
And I suspect many of you probably gave something
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Pretpostavljam da je mnogo vas dalo nešto
00:53
towards that problem as well,
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i za ovaj problem, takođe,
00:55
but somehow it doesn't happen
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ali to se nekako ne dešava
00:57
with the same intensity.
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sa istim intenzitetom.
00:59
So why is that?
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Zašto je to tako?
01:02
Well, here is a thought experiment for you.
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Pa, evo jednog misaonog eksperimenta za vas.
01:05
Imagine you have a few million dollars that you've raised --
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Zamislite da ste prikupili nekoliko miliona dolara.
01:07
maybe you're a politician in a developing country
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Možda ste političar u nekoj zemlji u razvoju,
01:10
and you have a budget to spend. You want to spend it on the poor:
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i imate budžet koji želite da potrošite na siromašne.
01:13
How do you go about it?
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Kako ćete to izvesti?
01:16
Do you believe the people who tell you
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Da li verujete ljudima koji vam kažu
01:18
that all we need to do is to spend money?
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da sve što treba da uradimo je da trošimo novac,
01:20
That we know how to eradicate poverty,
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da znamo kako da iskorenimo siromaštvo,
01:23
we just need to do more?
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samo treba da se potrudimo?
01:25
Or do you believe the people who tell you that
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Ili verujete ljudima koji vam kažu
01:27
aid is not going to help, on the contrary it might hurt,
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da pomoć ne može da pomogne, naprotiv, može da šteti,
01:30
it might exacerbate corruption, dependence, etc.?
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da pogorša korupciju, zavisnost, itd?
01:34
Or maybe you turn to the past.
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Ili možda se okrećete prošlosti.
01:36
After all, we have spent billions of dollars on aid.
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Ipak smo potrošili milijarde dolara na pomoć.
01:39
Maybe you look at the past and see.
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Možda gledate u prošlost i vidite
01:41
Has it done any good?
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da li je donela nešto dobro.
01:43
And, sadly, we don't know.
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I nažalost, to ne znamo.
01:45
And worst of all, we will never know.
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Što je najgore, nikada nećemo ni znati.
01:49
And the reason is that -- take Africa for example.
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A razlog tome - uzmite za primer Afriku -
01:51
Africans have already got a lot of aid.
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Afrikanci su dobili mnogo pomoći.
01:53
These are the blue bars.
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To su plavi stupci.
01:55
And the GDP in Africa is not making much progress.
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A bruto domaća prozvodnja u Africi ne napreduje.
01:58
Okay, fine. How do you know what
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Okej, dobro. Kako znate šta
02:00
would have happened without the aid?
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bi se dogodilo bez pomoći?
02:02
Maybe it would have been much worse,
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Možda bi bilo mnogo gore.
02:05
or maybe it would have been better.
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Ili bi možda bilo bolje.
02:07
We have no idea. We don't know what the counterfactual is.
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Nemamo pojma. Ne znamo kako bi drugačije bilo.
02:10
There's only one Africa.
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Postoji samo jedna Afrika.
02:12
So what do you do?
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Dakle, šta radite?
02:14
To give the aid, and hope and pray that something comes out of it?
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Dajete pomoć i nadate se i molite da će nešto proizaći iz toga?
02:18
Or do you focus on your everyday life
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Ili se fokusirate na svakodnevni život
02:21
and let the earthquake every eight days
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i dozvoljavate da se zemljotres svakih 8 dana
02:23
continue to happen?
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nastavlja?
02:25
The thing is, if we don't know
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Stvar je u tome da, ako ne znamo
02:27
whether we are doing any good,
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da li činimo dobro,
02:29
we are not any better
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nismo ništa bolji
02:31
than the Medieval doctors and their leeches.
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od srednjevekovnih doktora sa pijavicama.
02:34
Sometimes the patient gets better, sometimes the patient dies.
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Nekada pacijentu bude bolje, nekada pacijent umre.
02:37
Is it the leeches? Is it something else?
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Da li je to zbog pijavica? Ili nečeg drugog?
02:40
We don't know.
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Ne znamo.
02:42
So here are some other questions.
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Evo nekih drugih pitanja.
02:44
They're smaller questions,
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Ona su manja,
02:46
but they are not that small.
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ali nisu previše mala.
02:48
Immunization, that's the cheapest way
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Imunizacija je najjevtiniji način
02:51
to save a child's life.
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da spasite dečiji život.
02:53
And the world has spent a lot of money on it:
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Svet troši mnogo novca na to.
02:55
The GAVI and the Gates Foundations
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GAVI (Globalna Alijansa za Vakcine i Imunizaciju) i Gates fondacija
02:57
are each pledging a lot of money towards it,
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daju mnogo novca za ovo.
02:59
and developing countries themselves have been doing a lot of effort.
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I zemlje u razvoju takođe ulažu mnogo napora.
03:02
And yet, every year
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A ipak, svake godine,
03:04
at least 25 million children
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najmanje 25 miliona dece
03:06
do not get the immunization they should get.
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ne dobije imunizaciju koju bi trebalo.
03:09
So this is what you call a "last mile problem."
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To je ono što zovete "problemom poslednje milje".
03:12
The technology is there,
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Postoji tehnologija.
03:14
the infrastructure is there,
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Postoji infrastruktura.
03:16
and yet it doesn't happen.
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Ali ipak, to se ne dešava.
03:18
So you have your million.
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Znači imate svoj milion.
03:20
How do you use your million
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Kako ćete iskoristiti svoj milion
03:22
to solve this last mile problem?
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da rešite ovaj "problem poslednje milje"?
03:24
And here's another question:
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Evo još jednog pitanja:
03:26
Malaria. Malaria kills almost
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malarija. Malarija ubija skoro
03:29
900,000 people every year,
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900 000 ljudi svake godine,
03:32
most of them in Sub-Saharan Africa,
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većinu u pod-saharskoj Africi,
03:34
most of them under five.
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od kojih je najviše mlađe od 5 godina.
03:36
In fact, that is the leading cause of under-five mortality.
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Ustvari, to je vodeći uzrok smrtnosti dece ispod 5 godina.
03:39
We already know how to kill malaria,
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Već znamo kako da izlečimo malariju,
03:42
but some people come to you and say,
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ali neki ljude vam prilaze i kažu,
03:44
"You have your millions. How about bed nets?"
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"Imate milione. Šta mislite o baldahinima?"
03:47
Bed nets are very cheap.
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Baldahini su veoma jevtini.
03:49
For 10 dollars, you can manufacture and ship
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Za 10 dolara možete proizvesti i isporučiti
03:52
an insecticide treated bed net
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baldahin sa insekticidom,
03:54
and you can teach someone to use them.
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i možete naučiti nekoga da ga koristi.
03:56
And, not only do they protect the people who sleep under them,
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I ne samo da oni štite ljude koji pod njima spavaju,
03:59
but they have these great contagion benefits.
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nego koriste i kao zaštita od zaraza.
04:01
If half of a community sleeps under a net,
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Ako polovina zajednice spava pod mrežom,
04:04
the other half also benefits
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druga polovina takođe ima koristi
04:06
because the contagion of the disease spread.
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zbog širenja zaraznih bolesti.
04:09
And yet, only a quarter of kids at risk sleep under a net.
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Ali i pored toga, tek četvrtina ugrožene dece spava pod mrežama.
04:12
Societies should be willing to go out
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Društva bi trebalo da žele da
04:14
and subsidize the net, give them for free,
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sponzorišu mreže, da ih dele besplatno,
04:16
or, for that matter, pay people to use them
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ili još bolje, da plate ljudima da ih koriste
04:18
because of those contagion benefits.
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jer štite od zaraze.
04:20
"Not so fast," say other people.
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"Ne tako brzo", kažu drugi ljudi.
04:22
"If you give the nets for free,
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"Ako podelite mreže
04:24
people are not going to value them.
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ljudi ih neće ceniti.
04:26
They're not going to use them,
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Neće ih koristiti,
04:28
or at least they're not going to use them as bed nets,
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ili ih neće koristiti na krevetima,
04:30
maybe as fishing nets."
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nego kao mreže za pecanje."
04:32
So, what do you do?
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Dakle, šta ćete uraditi?
04:34
Do you give the nets for free to maximize coverage,
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Podeliti mreže i povećati pokrivenost?
04:36
or do you make people pay
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Ili ćete naterati ljude da ih plate
04:38
in order to make sure that they really value them?
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kako biste ih naveli da ih stvarno cene?
04:40
How do you know?
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Kako da znate?
04:42
And a third question: Education.
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I treće pitanje: obrazovanje.
04:44
Maybe that's the solution, maybe we should send kids to school.
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Možda je to rešenje. Možda bi trebalo da šaljemo decu u škole.
04:46
But how do you do that?
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Ali kako ćete uraditi to?
04:48
Do you hire teachers? Do you build more schools?
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Zaposliti nastavnike? Izgraditi više škola?
04:50
Do you provide school lunch?
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Da li obezbediti ručak u školi?
04:52
How do you know?
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Kako da znate?
04:54
So here is the thing.
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Evo u čemu je stvar.
04:56
I cannot answer the big question,
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Ja ne mogu da odgovorim na veliko pitanje,
04:58
whether aid did any good or not.
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da li je pomoć koristila ili ne,
05:00
But these three questions, I can answer them.
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ali na ova tri pitanja mogu da odgovorim.
05:04
It's not the Middle Ages anymore,
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Nije više Srednji vek.
05:06
it's the 21st century.
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Sada je 21. vek.
05:08
And in the 20th century,
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A u 20. veku
05:10
randomized, controlled trials
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su nasumična, kontrolisana testiranja
05:12
have revolutionized medicine
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preokrenula medicinu,
05:14
by allowing us to distinguish
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omogućavajući nam da utvrdimo
05:16
between drugs that work
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koji lekovi deluju
05:18
and drugs that don't work.
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a koji ne.
05:20
And you can do the same
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Možete sprovoditi ista,
05:22
randomized, controlled trial for social policy.
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nasumična, kontrolisana testiranja socijalne politike.
05:25
You can put social innovation to the same
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Možete da podvrgnete socijalne inovacije istim
05:27
rigorous, scientific tests
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strogim, naučnim testovima
05:29
that we use for drugs.
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koje koristimo za lekove.
05:31
And in this way, you can take the guesswork
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Na ovaj način otklanjate nagađanje
05:34
out of policy-making
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iz donošenja zakona,
05:36
by knowing what works,
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tako što znate šta funkcioniše
05:38
what doesn't work and why.
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a šta ne i zašto.
05:40
And I'll give you some examples with those three questions.
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Daću vam neke primere za ta tri pitanja.
05:44
So I start with immunization.
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Počeću sa imunizacijom.
05:46
Here's Udaipur District, Rajasthan. Beautiful.
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Ovo je okrug Udaipur u Radžastanu, prelepo.
05:49
Well, when I started working there,
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Kada sam počela tamo da radim,
05:51
about one percent of children
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otprilike 1% dece
05:53
were fully immunized.
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je bilo vakcinisano.
05:55
That's bad, but there are places like that.
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To je loše, ali takva mesta postoje.
05:58
Now, it's not because the vaccines are not there --
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To nije zbog toga što vakcina nema.
06:00
they are there and they are free --
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Ima ih i besplatne su.
06:02
and it's not because parents do not care about their kids.
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I nije zbog toga što roditeljima nije stalo do svoje dece.
06:05
The same child that is not immunized against measles,
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Ako dete nije vakcinisano protiv boginja,
06:08
if they do get measles, parents will spend
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a dobije ih, roditelji će potrošiti
06:10
thousands of rupees to help them.
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hiljade rupija da mu pomognu.
06:12
So you get these empty village subcenters
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Tako dobijate prazne seoske centre
06:14
and crowded hospitals.
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i pune bolnice.
06:16
So what is the problem?
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U čemu je problem?
06:18
Well, part of the problem, surely, is people do not fully understand.
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Pa, deo problema je u tome što ljudi ne razumeju u potpunosti.
06:21
After all, in this country as well,
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Čak i u ovoj zemlji
06:23
all sorts of myths and misconceptions
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postoje svakavi mitovi i pogrešnja uverenja
06:25
go around immunization.
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o imunizaciji.
06:28
So if that's the case, that's difficult,
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Ako je to slučaj, onda je veoma teško
06:30
because persuasion is really difficult.
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jer je ubeđivanje veoma teško.
06:33
But maybe there is another problem as well.
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Ali možda postoji još jedan problem.
06:35
It's going from intention to action.
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Problem između namere i realizacije.
06:38
Imagine you are a mother
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Zamislite da ste majka
06:40
in Udaipur District, Rajasthan.
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u okrugu Udaipur u Radžastanu.
06:42
You have to walk a few kilometers to get your kids immunized.
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Morate da prepešačite nekoliko kilometara da biste vakcinisali decu.
06:45
And maybe when you get there, what you find is this:
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I možda kada stignete tamo, zatekete ovo.
06:47
The subcenter is closed. Ao you have to come back,
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Centar je zatvoren i morate da se vratite.
06:49
and you are so busy and you have so many other things to do,
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Vi ste vrlo zauzeti, imate toliko drugih stvari da uradite,
06:52
you will always tend to postpone and postpone,
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uvek ćete odlagati i odlagati
06:54
and eventually it gets too late.
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dok na kraju ne bude kasno.
06:56
Well, if that's the problem, then that's much easier.
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Pa, ako je to problem, onda je mnogo lakše
06:59
Because A, we can make it easy,
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jer, A - možemo olakšati
07:02
and B, we can maybe
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i B - možda možemo
07:04
give people a reason to act today,
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ljudima dati razlog da reaguju danas,
07:06
rather than wait till tomorrow.
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pre nego da čekaju sutra.
07:08
So these are simple ideas, but we didn't know.
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Ovo su dakle jednostavne ideje, ali mi nismo znali.
07:10
So let's try them.
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Isprobajmo ih.
07:12
So what we did is we did a randomized, controlled trial
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Sproveli smo nasumična, kontrolisanja testiranja
07:15
in 134 villages in Udaipur Districts.
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u 134 sela u okrugu Udaipur.
07:17
So the blue dots
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Plave tačke
07:19
are selected randomly.
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su nasumično izabrane.
07:21
We made it easy -- I'll tell you how in a moment.
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Učinili smo da bude lako. Objasniću vam za trenutak.
07:24
In the red dots, we made it easy
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U crvenim tačkama smo olakšali
07:26
and gave people a reason to act now.
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i dali ljudima razlog da odmah reaguju.
07:28
The white dots are comparisons, nothing changed.
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Bele tačke su za poređenje, ništa se nije menjalo.
07:31
So we make it easy by organizing
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Olakšali smo tako što smo organizovali
07:33
this monthly camp where people can
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mesečni kamp gde ljudi mogu
07:35
get their kids immunized.
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da vakcinišu svoju decu.
07:37
And then you make it easy
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I onda olakšate
07:39
and give a reason to act now
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i date razlog da se reaguje odmah
07:41
by adding a kilo of lentils for each immunization.
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dajući kilogram sočiva za svaku vakcinaciju.
07:44
Now, a kilo of lentils is tiny.
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E sad, kilogram sočiva je malo.
07:47
It's never going to convince anybody
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Nikada neće ubediti nekoga
07:49
to do something that they don't want to do.
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da uradi nešto što ne želi da uradi.
07:51
On the other hand, if your problem is you tend to postpone,
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S druge strane, ako je vaš problem u tome što odlažete,
07:54
then it might give you a reason to act today
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onda vam može dati razlog da reagujete danas
07:56
rather than later.
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a ne kasnije.
07:58
So what do we find?
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I šta vidimo?
08:00
Well, beforehand, everything is the same.
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Pa, pre svega sve je isto.
08:02
That's the beauty of randomization.
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U tome je lepota nasumičnosti.
08:04
Afterwards,
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Posle,
08:06
the camp -- just having the camp --
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u kampu, samo u kampu,
08:08
increases immunization from six percent to 17 percent.
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vakcinacija je povećana sa 6 na 17%.
08:10
That's full immunization.
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To je potpuna imunizacija.
08:12
That's not bad, that's a good improvement.
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Nije loše. To je dobro poboljšanje.
08:14
Add the lentils and you reach to 38 percent.
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Dodajte sočivo i dolazite do 38%.
08:17
So here you've got your answer.
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Eto vam odgovor.
08:19
Make it easy and give a kilo of lentils,
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Olakšajte i dodajte kilogram sočiva
08:21
you multiply immunization rate by six.
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i imunizacija se povećava 6 puta.
08:24
Now, you might say, "Well, but it's not sustainable.
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Sada, možete reći, "Pa to nije održivo.
08:26
We cannot keep giving lentils to people."
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Ne možemo stalno davati ljudimo sočivo."
08:28
Well, it turns out it's wrong economics,
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Pa, ispostavlja se da je to pogrešna računica
08:30
because it is cheaper
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jer jevtinije je
08:32
to give lentils than not to give them.
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davati ljudima sočivo nego ne davati.
08:34
Since you have to pay for the nurse anyway,
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Pošto svakako morate da platite sestru,
08:36
the cost per immunization
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trošak jedne vakcinacije
08:38
ends up being cheaper if you give incentives than if you don't.
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je manji ako im date motivaciju nego ako to ne učinite.
08:42
How about bed nets?
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Šta je sa baldahinima?
08:44
Should you give them for free, or should you ask people to pay for them?
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Da li da ih poklonite ili da tražite od ljudi da plate?
08:47
So the answer hinges
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Odgovor se nadovezuje
08:49
on the answer to three simple questions.
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na odgovor na tri jednostavna pitanja.
08:51
One is: If people must pay for a bed net,
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Jedno je: ako ljudi moraju da plate za baldahin,
08:54
are they going to purchase them?
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da li će ga kupiti?
08:56
The second one is:
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Drugo:
08:58
If I give bed nets for free,
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ako damo baldahine besplatno
09:00
are people going to use them?
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da li će ih ljudi koristiti?
09:02
And the third one is:
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I treće:
09:04
Do free bed nets discourage future purchase?
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Da li poklanjanje baldahina sprečava njihovu kupovinu u budućnosti?
09:06
The third one is important
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Ovo treće je važno
09:08
because if we think people get used to handouts,
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jer ako mislimo da se ljudi naviknu na besplatne stvari
09:11
it might destroy markets to distribute free bed nets.
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to može uništiti tržište, ako delimo baldahine.
09:14
Now this is a debate that has generated
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Ovo je debata koja je izazvala
09:16
a lot of emotion and angry rhetoric.
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mnogo emotivnih i ljutih reči.
09:19
It's more ideological than practical,
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Više je ideološka nego praktična,
09:21
but it turns out it's an easy question.
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ali odgovara na jedno lako pitanje.
09:23
We can know the answer to this question.
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Možemo znati odgovor na ovo pitanje.
09:25
We can just run an experiment.
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Možemo samo sprovesti eksperiment.
09:27
And many experiments have been run, and they all have the same results,
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I mnogo eksperimenata je sprovedeno i svi oni imaju isti rezultat,
09:29
so I'm just going to talk to you about one.
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sada ću vam pričati o jednom.
09:32
And this one that was in Kenya,
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Ovo je bilo u Keniji,
09:34
they went around and distributed to people
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ljudima su podeljeni
09:36
vouchers, discount vouchers.
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vaučeri za popust.
09:38
So people with their voucher
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Ljudi su sa vaučerima
09:40
could get the bed net in the local pharmacy.
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mogli da kupe baldahin u lokalnoj apoteci.
09:42
And some people get 100 percent discount,
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Neki ljudi dobiju 100% popusta,
09:45
and some people get 20 percent discounts,
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neki 20% popusta,
09:47
and some people get 50 percent discount, etc.
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neki dobiju 50% popusta itd.
09:50
And now we can see what happens.
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I sad vidimo šta se dešava.
09:52
So, how about the purchasing?
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Dakle, šta je sa kupovinom?
09:54
Well, what you can see is that
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Pa, možete videti da
09:56
when people have to pay for their bed nets,
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kada ljudi treba da plate za baldahine,
09:58
the coverage rate really falls down a lot.
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pokrivenost opada u velikoj meri.
10:01
So even with partial subsidy,
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Čak i sa delimičnom subvencijom -
10:03
three dollars is still not the full cost of a bed net,
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3 dolara i dalje nije puna cena baldahina.
10:06
and now you only have 20 percent of the people with the bed nets,
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Sada imate samo 20% ljudi sa baldahinima,
10:08
you lose the health immunity, that's not great.
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gubite [nejasno], to nije dobro.
10:11
Second thing is, how about the use?
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Druga stvar, šta je sa omladinom?
10:13
Well, the good news is, people, if they have the bed nets,
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Pa, dobra stvar je da će ako imaju baldahine, ljudi
10:15
will use the bed nets regardless of how they got it.
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da ih koriste, bez obzira kako su do njih došli.
10:18
If they get it for free, they use it.
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Ako su ih dobili na poklon, koristiće ih.
10:20
If they have to pay for it, they use it.
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Ako moraju da plate, koristiće ih.
10:22
How about the long term?
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A dugoročno?
10:24
In the long term,
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Dugoročno,
10:26
people who got the free bed nets,
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ljudima koji su dobili besplatne mreže,
10:28
one year later, were offered the option
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godinu dana kasnije, ponuđena je opcija
10:30
to purchase a bed net at two dollars.
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da kupe mrežu za 2 dolara.
10:33
And people who got the free one
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I oni koji su dobili jednu na poklon
10:35
were actually more likely to purchase the second one
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češće su kupovali drugu
10:38
than people who didn't get a free one.
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od ljudi koji nisu dobili jednu na poklon.
10:40
So people do not get used to handouts; they get used to nets.
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Znači, ljudi se ne navikavaju na deljenje; navikavaju se na mreže.
10:43
Maybe we need to give them a little bit more credit.
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Možda bi trebalo da im ukažemo više poverenja.
10:48
So, that's for bed nets. So you will think, "That's great.
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To je što se mreža tiče. Pomislićete, "To je super.
10:50
You know how to immunize kids, you know how to give bed nets."
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Znate kako da vakcinišete, kako da date baldahine."
10:53
But what politicians need is a range of options.
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Ali političarima su potrebne različite opcije.
10:56
They need to know: Out of all the things I could do,
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Oni moraju da znaju: od svih stvari koje mogu da uradim,
10:59
what is the best way to achieve my goals?
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koji je najbolji način da ostvarim ciljeve?
11:02
So suppose your goal is to get kids into school.
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Pretpostavimo da vam je cilj da upišete decu u škole.
11:05
There are so many things you could do. You could pay for uniforms,
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Postoji toliko stvari koje možete učiniti. Možete da platite za uniforme,
11:08
you could eliminate fees, you could build latrines,
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možete da ukinete školarine, da izgradite toalete,
11:10
you could give girls sanitary pads, etc., etc.
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možete devojčicama da date uloške, itd.
11:13
So what's the best?
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Šta je najbolje?
11:15
Well, at some level, we think
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Pa, donekle mislimo
11:17
all of these things should work.
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da bi sve ove stvari trebalo da uspeju.
11:19
So, is that sufficient? If we think they should work intuitively,
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Da li je to dovoljno, ako mislimo da će to uspeti, intuitivno,
11:21
should we go for them?
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da li treba da probamo?
11:23
Well, in business, that's certainly not the way we would go about it.
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Pa, u poslovanju to sigurno nije način na koji bismo postupili.
11:27
Consider for example
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Razmislite na primer
11:29
transporting goods.
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o transportu robe.
11:31
Before the canals were invented
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Pre nego što su kanali izmišljeni
11:33
in Britain before the Industrial Revolution,
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u Britaniji, pre industrijske revolucije,
11:36
goods used to go on horse carts.
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roba se prevozila na konjskim zapregama.
11:38
And then canals were built,
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Onda su kanali izgrađeni,
11:40
and with the same horseman and the same horse,
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i sa istim konjem i konjanikom
11:43
you could carry ten times as much cargo.
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mogli ste da prevezete deset puta više tereta.
11:46
So should they have continued
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Da li je trebalo da nastave
11:48
to carry the goods on the horse carts, on the ground,
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da prenose robu na konjskim zapregama, putem,
11:51
that they would eventually get there?
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koje će nekada stići na cilj?
11:53
Well, if that had been the case,
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Pa, da je bilo tako,
11:55
there would have been no Industrial Revolution.
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ne bi došlo do industrijske revolucije.
11:57
So why shouldn't we do the same with social policy?
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Dakle, zašto ne bismo učinili isto sa socijalnom politikom?
12:00
In technology, we spend so much time
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U tehnologiji provodimo toliko vremena
12:02
experimenting, fine-tuning,
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eksperimentišući, podešavajući,
12:04
getting the absolute cheapest way to do something,
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nalazeći najjevtiniji način da nešto uradimo,
12:06
so why aren't we doing that with social policy?
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pa zašto ne radimo to i sa socijalnom politikom?
12:09
Well, with experiments, what you can do
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Pa, kod eksperimenata, ono što možete da uradite
12:11
is answer a simple question.
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je da odgovorite na jednostavno pitanje.
12:13
Suppose you have 100 dollars to spend
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Pretpostavimo da imate 100 dolara da potrošite
12:15
on various interventions.
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na različite intervencije.
12:17
How many extra years of education
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Koliko dodatnih godina obrazovanja
12:19
do you get for your hundred dollars?
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dobijate za sto dolara?
12:21
Now I'm going to show you
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Sada ću vam pokazati
12:23
what we get with various education interventions.
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šta dobijamo različitim intervencijama u obrazovanju.
12:27
So the first ones are if you want the usual suspects,
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Prve se odnose na uobičajene stvari,
12:29
hire teachers, school meals,
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unajmite nastavnike, školske obroke,
12:31
school uniforms, scholarships.
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uniforme, stipendije.
12:33
And that's not bad. For your hundred dollars,
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To nije loše. Za vaših sto dolara,
12:35
you get between one and three extra years of education.
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dobijate između jedne i tri dodatne godine obrazovanja.
12:39
Things that don't work so well is bribing parents,
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Stvari koje ne bi funkcionisale su podmićivanje roditelja,
12:41
just because so many kids are already going to school
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jer toliko mnogo dece već ide u školu,
12:44
that you end up spending a lot of money.
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završili biste trošeći puno para.
12:46
And here are the most surprising results.
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I evo rezultata koji najviše iznenađuju.
12:49
Tell people the benefits of education,
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Objasnite ljudima dobiti obrazovanja.
12:52
that's very cheap to do.
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To se može veoma jevtino uraditi.
12:54
So for every hundred dollars you spend doing that,
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Na svakih sto dolara koje potrošite na to,
12:57
you get 40 extra years of education.
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dobijate dodatnih 40 godina obrazovanja.
13:00
And, in places where there are worms,
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I u mestima gde ima glista,
13:02
intestinal worms,
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crevnih glista,
13:04
cure the kids of their worms.
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izlečite decu od njih.
13:06
And for every hundred dollars,
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I za svakih sto dolara,
13:08
you get almost 30 extra years of education.
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dobijate skoro 30 dodatnih godina obrazovanja.
13:11
So this is not your intuition,
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Znači to [nejasno] vaša intuicija.
13:13
this is not what people would have gone for,
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Ljudi ne bi ovo izabrali,
13:15
and yet, these are the programs that work.
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a ipak, ovo su programi koji uspevaju.
13:18
We need that kind of information, we need more of it,
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Potrebne su nam takve informacije. Potrebno nam ih je više.
13:20
and then we need to guide policy.
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I onda je potrebno da usmeravamo politiku.
13:24
So now, I started from the big problem, and I couldn't answer it.
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Znači, počela sam od velikog problema i nisam mogla da ga rešim.
13:27
And I cut it into smaller questions,
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Podelila sam ga na manja pitanja
13:30
and I have the answer to these smaller questions.
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i imam odgovore na ta manja pitanja.
13:32
And they are good, scientific, robust answers.
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To su dobri, naučni, robusni odgovori.
13:36
So let's go back to Haiti for a moment.
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Vratimo se na Haiti za trenutak.
13:39
In Haiti, about 200,000 people died --
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Tamo je skoro 200 000 ljudi umrlo.
13:43
actually, a bit more by the latest estimate.
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Zapravo, po poslednjoj proceni, nešto više.
13:45
And the response of the world was great:
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Odgovor sveta je bio odličan.
13:47
Two billion dollars got pledged just last month,
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Dve milijarde dolara je skupljeno samo prošlog meseca.
13:51
so that's about 10,000 dollars per death.
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To je oko 10 000 dolara po smrti.
13:53
That doesn't sound like that much when you think about it.
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Ne zvuči tako mnogo kad razmišljate o tome.
13:56
But if we were willing to spend 10,000 dollars
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Ali ako bismo bili voljni da potrošimo 10 000 dolara
13:59
for every child under five who dies,
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na svako dete mlađe od 5 godina koje umre,
14:02
that would be 90 billion per year
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to bi bilo 90 milijardi godišnje,
14:05
just for that problem.
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samo za taj problem.
14:07
And yet it doesn't happen.
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Ali to se ipak ne dešava.
14:09
So, why is that?
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Zašto je to tako?
14:11
Well, I think what part of the problem is that,
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Ja mislim da je deo problema u tome
14:13
in Haiti, although the problem is huge,
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što na Haitiju, iako je problem ogroman,
14:15
somehow we understand it, it's localized.
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nekako ga razumemo, lokalizovan je.
14:17
You give your money to Doctors Without Borders,
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Date novac Doktorima bez granica,
14:19
you give your money to Partners In Health,
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date novac Partnerima u zdravlju,
14:21
and they'll send in the doctors, and they'll send in the lumber,
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i oni će poslati doktore, poslaće stare stvari,
14:24
and they'll helicopter things out and in.
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poslaće helikopter da donosi i odnosi stvari.
14:27
And the problem of poverty is not like that.
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A problem siromaštva nije takav.
14:29
So, first, it's mostly invisible;
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Prvo, uglavnom je nevidljiv.
14:31
second, it's huge;
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Drugo, ogroman je.
14:33
and third, we don't know whether we are doing the right thing.
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I treće, ne znamo da li činimo ispravnu stvar.
14:36
There's no silver bullet.
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Ne postoji jedno najbolje rešenje.
14:38
You cannot helicopter people out of poverty.
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Ne možete helikopterom izneti ljude iz siromaštva.
14:40
And that's very frustrating.
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A to je veoma frustrirajuće.
14:42
But look what we just did today.
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Ali pogledajte šta smo upravo danas učinili.
14:45
I gave you three simple answers to three questions:
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Dala sam vam tri jednostavna odgovora na tri pitanja.
14:48
Give lentils to immunize people,
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Dajte sočivo za imunizaciju ljudi,
14:50
provide free bed nets, deworm children.
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obezbedite besplatne baldahine, izlečite decu.
14:52
With immunization or bed nets,
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Vakcinisanjem ili baldahinima
14:54
you can save a life for 300 dollars per life saved.
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možete spasiti jedan život za 300 dolara po spašenom životu.
14:57
With deworming, you can get
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Sa lečenjem od glista, dobijate
14:59
an extra year of education for three dollars.
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dodatnu godinu obrazovanja za tri dolara.
15:02
So we cannot eradicate poverty just yet,
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Ne možemo još uvek iskoreniti siromaštvo,
15:05
but we can get started.
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ali možemo početi.
15:07
And maybe we can get started small
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Možda možemo početi s malim
15:09
with things that we know are effective.
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stvarima za koje znamo da su učinkovite.
15:12
Here's an example of how this can be powerful.
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Evo primera koliko ovo može biti moćno.
15:14
Deworming.
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Lečenje od glista.
15:16
Worms have a little bit of a problem grabbing the headlines.
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Gliste imaju problem sa dospevanjem u naslove.
15:18
They are not beautiful and don't kill anybody.
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Nisu lepe i ne ubijaju nikoga.
15:21
And yet, when the young global leader in Davos
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Ali ipak, kada je mladi vođa u Davosu
15:23
showed the numbers I gave you,
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pokazao brojeve koje sam vam dala,
15:25
they started Deworm the World.
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započeo je "Deworm the World" ("Oslobodimo svet od glista").
15:27
And thanks to Deworm the World,
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I zahvaljujući tome,
15:29
and the effort of many country governments and foundations,
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i naporu mnogih vlada i fondacija,
15:31
20 million school-aged children got dewormed in 2009.
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20 miliona dece školskog uzrasta je izlečeno u 2009.
15:34
So this evidence is powerful.
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Ovaj dokaz je moćan.
15:36
It can prompt action.
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Može da ubrza akciju.
15:38
So we should get started now.
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Trebalo bi da počnemo odmah.
15:40
It's not going to be easy.
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To neće biti lako.
15:42
It's a very slow process.
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To je veoma spor proces.
15:44
You have to keep experimenting, and sometimes ideology
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Morate stalno da eksperimentišete, i ponekad ideologiju
15:46
has to be trumped by practicality.
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mora da pobedi praktičnost.
15:48
And sometimes what works somewhere doesn't work elsewhere.
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A ponekada nešto što uspeva na jednom mestu, ne uspeva na drugom.
15:51
So it's a slow process,
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Dakle to je spor proces,
15:53
but there is no other way.
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ali ne postoji drugi način.
15:55
These economics I'm proposing,
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Ova računica koju predlažem
15:57
it's like 20th century medicine.
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je kao medicina dvadesetog veka.
15:59
It's a slow, deliberative process
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To je spor, promišljen proces
16:01
of discovery.
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otkrivanja.
16:03
There is no miracle cure,
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Ne postoji čudotvorni lek,
16:05
but modern medicine is saving
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ali moderna medicina spašava
16:07
millions of lives every year,
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milione života svake godine,
16:09
and we can do the same thing.
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a mi možemo da učinimo isto.
16:13
And now, maybe, we can go back to the bigger question
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I sada se možda možemo vratiti većem pitanju
16:16
that I started with at the beginning.
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s kojim sam počela.
16:19
I cannot tell you
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Ne mogu da vam kažem
16:21
whether the aid we have spent in the past has made a difference,
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da li je pomoć koju smo dali u prošlosti značila nešto,
16:24
but can we come back here in 30 years
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ali možemo li se vratiti ovde za 30 godina
16:27
and say, "What we have done,
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i reći, "Ono što smo ovde uradili
16:30
it really prompted a change for the better."
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je stvarno ubrzalo promenu na bolje."
16:33
I believe we can and I hope we will.
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Verujem da možemo i nadam se da hoćemo.
16:35
Thank you.
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Hvala.
16:37
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Esther Duflo - Development economistEsther Duflo takes economics out of the lab and into the field to discover the causes of poverty and means to eradicate it.
Why you should listen
2009 MacArthur fellow Esther Duflo is pushing the field of development economics by studying specific causal relationships that lead to or perpetuate poverty. She looks at close-to-home issues: household behavior, education, access to finance and health.
At MIT, she's the founder and director of the Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), a research network that evaluates social programs. It's concerned less with wide-ranging policy than with specific questions. Sample: If schoolkids could get their uniforms for free, would attendance go up? What's an effective way to reward mothers for immunizing their babies? Randomized trials offer new insights toward creating global equity and prosperity. Her work may blur the lines between economics and activism, but it's a role Duflo not only considers comfortable but vital.
Her new book is Poor Economics, with Abhijit W. Banerjee.
Esther Duflo | Speaker | TED.com