TED2012
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
Peter Diamandis: Küllus on meie tulevik
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TED2012 laval kõneleb Peter Diamandis optimismi kaitseks, väites, et me leiutame, uuendame ja loome viise meid ähvardavate väljakutsete lahendamiseks. "Ma ei väida, nagu meil poleks probleeme - on muidugi. Aga lõpuks me seljatame need."
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
00:18
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.
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Bin Ladeni surma järel lahvatasid ähvardused.
00:21
Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.
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Näljahäda Somaalias. Politsei pipragaas.
00:23
Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.
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Õelad kartellid. Keskkonnaohtlikud laevaliinid.
00:25
Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.
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Ühiskondlik allakäik. 65 surnut.
00:28
Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.
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Tsunamihoiatus. Küberrünnakud.
00:30
Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.
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Narkosõda. Massihävitus. Tornaado.
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Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.
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Majandussurutis. Võlgnevus. Maailmalõpp. Egiptus. Süüria.
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Crisis. Death. Disaster.
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Kriis. Surm. Katastroof.
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Oh, my God.
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Jumal küll.
00:39
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips
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Need on vaid mõned klipid,
00:41
I collected over the last six months --
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mis ma olen viimase kuue kuu jooksul kogunud -
00:43
could have easily been the last six days
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samahästi võiksid need pärineda viimasest kuuest päevast
00:45
or the last six years.
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või viimasest kuuest aastast.
00:47
The point is that the news media
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Asi on selles, et uudistemeedia
00:49
preferentially feeds us negative stories
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eelistab meile ette sööta negatiivseid lugusid,
00:52
because that's what our minds pay attention to.
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sest sellele pöörab meie teadvus tähelepanu.
00:55
And there's a very good reason for that.
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Selleks on väga hea põhjus.
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Every second of every day,
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Iga päev, iga sekundiga
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our senses bring in way too much data
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saame me meelte kaudu palju rohkem infot,
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than we can possibly process in our brains.
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kui me suudame oma ajus töödelda.
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And because nothing is more important to us
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Ja kuna meile on kõige olulisem
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than survival,
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ellujäämine,
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the first stop of all of that data
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on kogu selle info esimene peatus
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is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe
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ürgne osa oimusagarast,
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called the amygdala.
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mida nimetatakse mandelkehaks.
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Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,
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Mandelkeha on meie varajane hoiatusdetektor,
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our danger detector.
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ohudetektor.
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It sorts and scours through all of the information
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See korrastab ja uurib läbi kogu informatsiooni,
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looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.
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otsides keskkonnast kõike, mis võib meile liiga teha.
01:25
So given a dozen news stories,
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Nii et kui meile pakutakse tosin uudistelugu,
01:27
we will preferentially look
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pöörame me kõigepealt tähelepanu
01:29
at the negative news.
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pahaendelistele uudistele.
01:31
And that old newspaper saying,
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Vana ajakirjanike ütlus,
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"If it bleeds it leads,"
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et mida rohkem verd, seda paremini müüb,
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is very true.
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vastab tõele.
01:37
So given all of our digital devices
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Arvestades kõiki neid digitaalseid vidinaid,
01:40
that are bringing all the negative news to us
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mis toovad meieni kõik halvad uudised
01:42
seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
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seitse päeva nädalas ja 24 tundi päevas,
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it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.
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pole mingi ime, et me oleme pessimistlikud.
01:47
It's no wonder that people think
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Pole ime, et inimeste arust
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that the world is getting worse.
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muutub maailm aina halvemaks.
01:53
But perhaps that's not the case.
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Aga võib-olla tegelikult ei ole nii.
01:56
Perhaps instead,
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Võib-olla näidatakse
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it's the distortions brought to us
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meile hoopis moonutatud kujutisi
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of what's really going on.
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sellest, mis tegelikult toimub.
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Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made
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Võib-olla see tohutu progress,
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over the last century
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mille me oleme möödunud sajandi jooksul
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by a series of forces
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samm-sammult läbi teinud,
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are, in fact, accelerating to a point
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on tegelikult kiirenemas punktini,
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that we have the potential in the next three decades
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kus meil on järgmise 30 aasta jooksul võimalus
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to create a world of abundance.
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luua küllusemaailm.
02:18
Now I'm not saying
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Ma ei väida,
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we don't have our set of problems --
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nagu meil poleks hulka probleeme -
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climate crisis, species extinction,
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kliimakriis, liikide väljasuremine,
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water and energy shortage -- we surely do.
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vee- ja energianappus - muidugi on.
02:27
And as humans, we are far better
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Ja inimestena oskame me palju paremini
02:29
at seeing the problems way in advance,
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näha probleeme kaugele ette,
02:32
but ultimately we knock them down.
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aga lõpuks me seljatame need.
02:36
So let's look
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Vaatame nüüd,
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at what this last century has been
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milline oli eelmine sajand,
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to see where we're going.
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et näha, kuhu me liigume.
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Over the last hundred years,
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Viimase saja aasta jooksul
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the average human lifespan has more than doubled,
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on inimese keskmine eluiga rohkem kui kahekordistunud,
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average per capita income adjusted for inflation
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keskmine sissetulek inimese kohta, arvestades inflatsiooni,
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around the world has tripled.
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on üle maailma kolmekordistunud.
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Childhood mortality
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Laste suremus
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has come down a factor of 10.
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on langenud kümme korda.
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Add to that the cost of food, electricity,
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Lisaks sellele on toidu-, elektri-,
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transportation, communication
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transpordi- ja kommunikatsioonihinnad
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have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.
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langenud 10 kuni 1000 korda.
03:04
Steve Pinker has showed us
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Steve Pinker on meile näidanud,
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that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever
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et tegelikult elame me kõige rahulikumal ajal
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in human history.
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kogu inimajaloos.
03:11
And Charles Kenny
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Charles Kenny väitel
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that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent
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on ülemaailmne kirjaoskus kasvanud 25 protsendilt 80 protsendini
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in the last 130 years.
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viimase 130 aasta jooksul.
03:19
We truly are living in an extraordinary time.
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Me elame erakordsel ajal.
03:23
And many people forget this.
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Aga paljud inimesed unustavad selle ära.
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And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.
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Ning me seame oma ootused aina kõrgemale.
03:28
In fact, we redefine what poverty means.
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Me mõtestame ümber, mida tähendab vaesus.
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Think of this, in America today,
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Mõelge - tänapäeva Ameerikas
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the majority of people under the poverty line
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on enamikul allpool vaesusepiiri elavatest inimestest
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still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,
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siiski olemas elekter, vesi, tualetid, külmkapid,
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television, mobile phones,
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televiisorid, mobiiltelefonid,
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air conditioning and cars.
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õhukonditsioneerid ja autod.
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The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,
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Rikkaimad ärihaid 19. sajandil, selle planeedi valitsejad,
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could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
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poleks osanud sellisest luksusest unistadagi.
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Underpinning much of this
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Suures osas toetab seda
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is technology,
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tehnoloogia
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and of late,
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ja viimasel ajal
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exponentially growing technologies.
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astmeliselt kasvavad tehnoloogiad.
04:02
My good friend Ray Kurzweil
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Mu hea sõber Ray Kurzweil
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showed that any tool that becomes an information technology
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näitas, et iga töövahend, millest saab informatsioonitehnoloogia,
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jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,
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teeb hüppe sellel kõveral, Moore'i seaduse järgi,
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and experiences price performance doubling
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ning selle hinna-kvaliteedi suhe kahekordistub
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every 12 to 24 months.
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iga 12 kuni 24 kuu jooksul.
04:15
That's why the cellphone in your pocket
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Sellepärast on mobiiltelefon teie taskus
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is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster
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miljon korda odavam ja tuhat korda kiirem
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than a supercomputer of the '70s.
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kui üks 70ndate superarvuti.
04:21
Now look at this curve.
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Vaadake seda kõverat.
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This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.
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See on Moore'i seadus viimase saja aasta jooksul.
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I want you to notice two things from this curve.
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Ma tahaksin tähelepanu osutada kahele asjale.
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Number one, how smooth it is --
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Esiteks, kui sujuv on see kõver -
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through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,
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läbi heade ja halbade aegade, sõja- ja rahuaja,
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recession, depression and boom time.
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majandussurutise, languse ja õitsengu.
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This is the result of faster computers
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See on tagajärg sellest, kui kiiremaid arvuteid
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being used to build faster computers.
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kasutatakse selleks, et ehitada kiiremaid arvuteid.
04:42
It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.
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Seda ei aeglusta ükski meie suurtest probleemidest.
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And also, even though it's plotted
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Ja ühtlasi, kuigi see on joonestatud
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on a log curve on the left,
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vasakul pool logaritmgraafikusse,
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it's curving upwards.
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kaardub see ülespoole.
04:52
The rate at which the technology is getting faster
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Tehnoloogia pidev kiirenemine
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is itself getting faster.
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on iseeneses kiirenev protsess.
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And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,
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Sellele Moore'i seadusest lähtuvale kõverale
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are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies
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on märgitud mitmed haruldaselt võimsad tehnoloogiad,
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available to all of us.
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mis on meile kõigile kättesaadavad.
05:05
Cloud computing,
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Pilvandmetöötlus,
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what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;
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mida mu sõbrad Autodeskis nimetavad lõpmatuks andmetöötluseks;
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sensors and networks; robotics;
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sensorid ja võrgustikud; robootika;
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3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute
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3D-printimine, mis tähendab võimet demokratiseerida ja levitada
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personalized production around the planet;
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isikupärastatud tootmist üle terve maailma;
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synthetic biology;
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sünteetiline bioloogia;
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fuels, vaccines and foods;
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kütused, vaktsiinid, toiduained;
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digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.
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digitaalne meditsiin; nanomaterjalid; tehisintellektid.
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I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy
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Kui paljud teist nägid, kuidas IBM-i superarvuti Watson
05:28
by IBM's Watson?
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võitis ära "Kuldvillaku"?
05:30
I mean, that was epic.
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See oli suurejooneline.
05:33
In fact, I scoured the headlines
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Ma lausa tuhlasin läbi kõik ajalehepealkirjad,
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looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.
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et leida parim võimalik pealkiri.
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And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."
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Mulle meeldis see: "Watson võidab inimoponendid."
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Jeopardy's not an easy game.
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"Kuldvillak" ei ole lihtne mäng.
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It's about the nuance of human language.
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See põhineb inimkeele nüanssidel.
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And imagine if you would
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Kujutage ette,
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A.I.'s like this on the cloud
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kui sellised tehisintellektid
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available to every person with a cellphone.
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oleksid kättesaadavad igale mobiiltelefoniga inimesele.
05:54
Four years ago here at TED,
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Neli aastat tagasi siinsamas TEDil
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Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university
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panime Ray Kurzweiliga aluse uuele ülikoolile
05:58
called Singularity University.
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nimega Singulaarsuseülikool.
06:00
And we teach our students all of these technologies,
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Me õpetame oma tudengitele kõiki neid tehnoloogiaid
06:03
and particularly how they can be used
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ja eelkõige seda, kuidas neid kasutada,
06:05
to solve humanity's grand challenges.
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et lahendada inimkonna suuri probleeme.
06:08
And every year we ask them
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Igal aastal palume me tudengitel
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to start a company or a product or a service
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luua firma, toode või teenus,
06:13
that can affect positively the lives of a billion people
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mis osutaks positiivset mõju miljardile inimesele
06:16
within a decade.
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kümne aasta jooksul.
06:18
Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students
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Mõlege selle üle - grupp tudengeid suudab tänapäeval
06:21
can touch the lives of a billion people today.
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sõna tõsises mõttes mõjutada miljardi inimese elu.
06:24
30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.
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30 aastat tagasi oleks see kõlanud naeruväärselt.
06:26
Today we can point at dozens of companies
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Täna võime osutada tosinatele firmadele,
06:29
that have done just that.
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mis on selle saavutanud.
06:31
When I think about creating abundance,
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Kui ma mõtlen külluse loomisele,
06:37
it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;
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siis ei tähenda see luksusliku elu loomist kõigile siin planeedil;
06:40
it's about creating a life of possibility.
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see tähendab võimalusterohke elu loomist.
06:43
It is about taking that which was scarce
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See tähendab võtta see, mida on napilt,
06:46
and making it abundant.
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ja luua sellest küllus.
06:48
You see, scarcity is contextual,
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Nappus on kontekstuaalne
06:51
and technology is a resource-liberating force.
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ja tehnoloogia on ressursse vabastav jõud.
06:56
Let me give you an example.
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Toon näite.
06:59
So this is a story of Napoleon III
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See on lugu Napoleon III-st
07:01
in the mid-1800s.
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19. sajandi keskel.
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He's the dude on the left.
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Napoleon III on vasakul.
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He invited over to dinner
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Ta kutsus õhtusöögile
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the king of Siam.
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Siiami kuninga.
07:10
All of Napoleon's troops
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Kõik Napoleoni sõjamehed
07:12
were fed with silver utensils,
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kasutasid hõbedast söögiriistu,
07:15
Napoleon himself with gold utensils.
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Napoleon ise kasutas kullast söögiriistu.
07:17
But the King of Siam,
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Aga Siiami kuningale
07:19
he was fed with aluminum utensils.
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anti alumiiniumist söögiriistad.
07:21
You see, aluminum
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Alumiinium nimelt
07:23
was the most valuable metal on the planet,
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oli maailma kõige väärtuslikum metall,
07:26
worth more than gold and platinum.
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väärtuslikum kui kuld ja plaatina.
07:29
It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument
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Sellepärast on Washingtoni monumendi tipp
07:32
is made of aluminum.
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tehtud alumiiniumist.
07:34
You see, even though aluminum
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Kuigi alumiinium moodustab
07:36
is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,
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8,3 protsenti Maa massist,
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it doesn't come as a pure metal.
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ei esine seda puhta metallina,
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It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.
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vaid see on seotud hapniku ja silikaatidega.
07:44
But then the technology of electrolysis came along
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Aga siis tuli elektrolüüsitehnoloogia,
07:47
and literally made aluminum so cheap
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mis tegi alumiiniumi nii odavaks,
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that we use it with throw-away mentality.
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et me saame seda raisata.
07:53
So let's project this analogy going forward.
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Peegeldame selle analoogia tulevikku.
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We think about energy scarcity.
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Me räägime energianappusest.
07:59
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Daamid ja härrad,
08:01
we are on a planet
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me elame planeedil,
08:03
that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy
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kus on 5000 korda rohkem energiat
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than we use in a year.
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kui me aasta jooksul kasutame.
08:09
16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface
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16 teravatti energiat jõuab Maa pinnale
08:11
every 88 minutes.
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iga 88 minuti jooksul.
08:15
It's not about being scarce,
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Asi pole nappuses,
08:17
it's about accessibility.
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vaid kättesaadavuses.
08:19
And there's good news here.
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Ja selles osas on häid uudiseid.
08:21
For the first time, this year
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Esimest korda sel aastal
08:23
the cost of solar-generated electricity
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moodustab päikeseenergia hind
08:26
is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --
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50% diiselelektri hinnast Indias -
08:30
8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.
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8,8 ruupiat 17 ruupia vastu.
08:33
The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.
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Päikeseenergia hind langes eelmisel aastal 50%.
08:35
Last month, MIT put out a study
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Eelmisel kuul esitas MIT uurimuse,
08:37
showing that by the end of this decade,
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mille järgi selle aastakümne lõpuks
08:39
in the sunny parts of the United States,
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maksab USA päikselistes piirkondades
08:41
solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour
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päikeseenergia 6 senti kilovatt-tunnis,
08:43
compared to 15 cents
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võrrelduna 15 sendiga,
08:45
as a national average.
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mis on riiklik keskmine.
08:47
And if we have abundant energy,
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Ja kui meil on külluses energiat,
08:50
we also have abundant water.
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on meil ka külluses vett.
08:53
Now we talk about water wars.
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Me räägime veesõdadest.
08:58
Do you remember
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Kas te mäletate,
09:00
when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft
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kui Carl Sagan pööras Voyageri kosmoselaeva
09:02
back towards the Earth,
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1990. aastal tagasi Maa poole,
09:04
in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?
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pärast seda, kui see möödus Saturnist?
09:06
He took a famous photo. What was it called?
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Ta tegi kuulsa foto, mille nimi oli
09:09
"A Pale Blue Dot."
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"Kahvatu sinine täpp".
09:11
Because we live on a water planet.
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Seda sellepärast, et me elame veeplaneedil.
09:14
We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.
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Planeedil, mis on 70% ulatuses kaetud veega.
09:17
Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,
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Jah, 97,5% sellest on soolane vesi,
09:19
two percent is ice,
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2% on jää
09:21
and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,
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ja me peame omavahel võitlust poole protsendi magevee pärast,
09:24
but here too there is hope.
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aga isegi siin on lootust.
09:26
And there is technology coming online,
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Appi tuleb tehnoloogia -
09:29
not 10, 20 years from now,
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mitte 10 või 20 aasta pärast,
09:31
right now.
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vaid praegu.
09:33
There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
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Areneb nanotehnoloogia, nanomaterjalid.
09:36
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,
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Täna hommikul vestlesin Dean Kameniga,
09:39
one of the great DIY innovators,
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suure isetegemise-innovaatoriga,
09:41
I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --
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ja ma tahaksin jagada teiega tema loal
09:44
his technology called Slingshot
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tehnoloogiat nimega "Slingshot",
09:46
that many of you may have heard of,
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millest paljud teist ehk kuulnud on.
09:48
it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.
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See on väikese külmiku suurune seade,
09:50
It's able to generate
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mis on suuteline tootma
09:52
a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day
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tuhat liitrit puhast joogivett päevas
09:54
out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --
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ükskõik, millisest allikast - mereveest, saasteveest, roiskveest -
09:57
at less than two cents a liter.
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vähema eest kui kaks senti liiter.
10:02
The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed
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Coca-Cola esimees on just nõustunud
10:04
to do a major test
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tegema mastaapse katse
10:06
of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.
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sadade selliste seadetega arengumaades.
10:09
And if that pans out,
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Ja kui see annab tulemusi,
10:11
which I have every confidence it will,
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ning ma olen veendunud, et annab,
10:13
Coca-Cola will deploy this globally
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hakkab Coca-Cola kasutama seda
10:15
to 206 countries
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206 riigis
10:17
around the planet.
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üle maailma.
10:19
This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,
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Tänu tehnoloogiale on meil sellised uuendused
10:22
that exists today.
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juba täna olemas.
10:26
And we've seen this in cellphones.
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Me oleme seda näinud mobiiltelefonide puhul.
10:28
My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration
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2013. aasta lõpuks küünib
10:30
of cellphones in the developing world
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mobiiltelefonide kasutamine arenguriikides
10:32
by the end of 2013.
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70 protsendini.
10:34
Think about it,
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Kujutage ette,
10:36
that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya
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et ühel masai sõdalasel keset Keeniat
10:39
has better mobile comm
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on parem mobiiliühendus
10:41
than President Reagan did 25 years ago.
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kui president Reaganil 25 aastat tagasi.
10:44
And if they're on a smartphone on Google,
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Ja kui ta kasutab nutitelefoni ja Google'it,
10:46
they've got access to more knowledge and information
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pääseb ta ligi rohkematele teadmistele ja infole
10:48
than President Clinton did 15 years ago.
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kui president Clinton 15 aastat tagasi.
10:50
They're living in a world of information and communication abundance
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Nad elavad sellises informatsiooni ja kommunikatsiooni külluses,
10:53
that no one could have ever predicted.
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mida mitte keegi poleks osanud ennustada.
10:57
Better than that,
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Veelgi parem on see,
10:59
the things that you and I
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et need asjad, millele teie ja mina
11:01
spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --
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kulutasime kümneid ja sadu tuhandeid dollareid -
11:03
GPS, HD video and still images,
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GPS, HD video ja fotod,
11:06
libraries of books and music,
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raamatu- ja muusikakogud,
11:09
medical diagnostic technology --
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meditsiinilise diagnostika seadmed -
11:11
are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing
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on nüüd käibelt kadumas ja rakendust leidmas
11:14
into your cellphone.
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teie mobiiltelefonides.
11:19
Probably the best part of it
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Parim osa sellest on tõenäoliselt see,
11:21
is what's coming down the pike in health.
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mis toimub tervishoiu valdkonnas.
11:24
Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation
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Kuu aega tagasi kuulutasime koos fondiga Qualcomm välja
11:28
something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.
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10 miljoni dollari suuruse Qualcomm Trikorder X preemia.
11:32
We're challenging teams around the world
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Me innustame meeskondi üle maailma
11:34
to basically combine these technologies
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kombineerima neid tehnoloogiaid
11:36
into a mobile device
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mobiilsetesse seadmetesse,
11:38
that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,
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millega saab rääkida, sest neil on tehisintellekt,
11:40
you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.
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mille peale saab köhida või sõrmest verd anda.
11:43
And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better
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Et preemia võita, peaks see olema suuteline diagnoosima haigusi paremini
11:45
than a team of board-certified doctors.
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kui meeskond kvalifitseeritud arste.
11:49
So literally, imagine this device
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Kujutlege sellist seadeldist
11:52
in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,
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kusagil arengumaades, kus pole arste,
11:55
25 percent of the disease burden
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kus on 25% tervisehädasid
11:57
and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.
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ja 1,3% tervishoiutöötajaid.
12:00
When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus
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Kui see seadeldis tuvastab RNA või DNA viiruse,
12:02
that it doesn't recognize,
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mida ta ära ei tunne,
12:04
it calls the CDC
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siis teavitab ta tervishoiukeskust ja
12:06
and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
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takistab pandeemial üleüldse tekkimast.
12:11
But here, here is the biggest force
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Aga nüüd kõige suuremast jõust,
12:14
for bringing about a world of abundance.
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mis võimaldab küllusemaailma.
12:16
I call it the rising billion.
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Ma nimetan seda tõusvaks miljardiks.
12:19
So the white lines here are population.
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Valged sambad tähistavad populatsiooni.
12:22
We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.
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Maa elanikkond möödus just seitsme miljardi verstapostist.
12:25
And by the way,
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Muuseas,
12:27
the biggest protection against a population explosion
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parim kaitse rahvastiku plahvatusliku kasvu vastu
12:29
is making the world educated
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on pakkuda maailmale haridust
12:31
and healthy.
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ja tervishoidu.
12:34
In 2010,
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Aastal 2010
12:36
we had just short of two billion people
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oli veidi vähem kui kaks miljardit inimest
12:38
online, connected.
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internetis, omavahel ühenduses.
12:40
By 2020,
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Aastaks 2020
12:42
that's going from two billion to five billion
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kasvab see arv kahelt miljardilt viiele miljardile
12:44
Internet users.
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internetikasutajale.
12:46
Three billion new minds
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Kolm miljardit uut teadvust,
12:48
who have never been heard from before
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kellest pole varem midagi kuuldud,
12:50
are connecting to the global conversation.
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ühinevad ülemaailmse vestlusega.
12:54
What will these people want?
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Mida need inimesed tahavad?
12:56
What will they consume? What will they desire?
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Mida nad tarbivad? Mida ihaldavad?
12:58
And rather than having economic shutdown,
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Ja majanduse kokkukukkumise asemel
13:00
we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.
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ootab meid ees seni kõige suurem majanduslik süst.
13:03
These people represent
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Need inimesed esindavad
13:05
tens of trillions of dollars
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kümneid biljoneid dollareid,
13:07
injected into the global economy.
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mis süstitakse maailma majandusse.
13:10
And they will get healthier
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Nad on tervemad,
13:12
by using the Tricorder,
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kuna nad kasutavad trikorderit,
13:14
and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,
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ja parema haridusega, kuna kasutavad Khan Academyt
13:16
and by literally being able to use
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ning kuna neil on võimalus kasutada
13:19
3D printing and infinite computing
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3D printimist ja lõpmatut andmetöötlust,
13:22
[become] more productive than ever before.
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on nad loovamad kui kunagi varem.
13:25
So what could three billion rising,
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Mida võivad kolm miljardit
13:28
healthy, educated, productive members of humanity
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tervet, haritud, loovat inimkonnaliiget
13:31
bring to us?
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meile tuua?
13:33
How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.
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Näiteks uued hääled, mida ei ole varem kuuldud.
13:36
What about giving the oppressed,
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Võimaluse anda rõhututele,
13:38
wherever they might be,
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kus nad ka poleks,
13:40
the voice to be heard and the voice to act
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hääle, mida kuuldakse ja mille peale reageeritakse
13:42
for the first time ever?
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esimest korda üldse.
13:45
What will these three billion people bring?
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Mida need kolm miljardit inimest kaasa toovad?
13:48
What about contributions we can't even predict?
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Võib-olla panuseid, mida me ei oska ennustadagi?
13:51
The one thing I've learned at the X Prize
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Üks asi, mida ma X preemia puhul õppisin,
13:53
is that small teams
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on see, et väikesed meeskonnad,
13:55
driven by their passion with a clear focus
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keda innustab kirg ja selge fookus,
13:58
can do extraordinary things,
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võivad korda saata ebatavalisi asju,
14:00
things that large corporations and governments
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mida suured korporatsioonid ja valitsused
14:02
could only do in the past.
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suutsid vaid minevikus.
14:05
Let me share and close with a story
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Jagan teiega üht lugu,
14:07
that really got me excited.
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mis minus suurt elevust tekitas.
14:10
There is a program that some of you might have heard of.
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On üks programm, millest te võib-olla olete kuulnud.
14:12
It's a game called Foldit.
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See on mäng nimega Foldit.
14:14
It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.
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See tuli välja Washingtoni Ülikoolis Seattle'is.
14:18
And this is a game
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See on mäng,
14:20
where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids
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kus inimesed saavad paigutada aminohapped jadasse
14:24
and figure out how the protein is going to fold.
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ja mõelda välja, kuidas valgu koostis kujuneb.
14:28
And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.
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See jada omakorda dikteerib valgu struktuuri ja kasutuse.
14:30
And it's very important for research in medicine.
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See on väga oluline uurimustöödeks meditsiinis.
14:33
And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
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Viimase ajani on see olnud superarvutite teema.
14:36
And this game has been played
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Seda mängu on mänginud
14:38
by university professors and so forth.
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ülikooliprofessorid ja nii edasi.
14:40
And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people
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Aga nüüd tulid sajad tuhanded inimesed
14:43
came online and started playing it.
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internetti ja hakkasid seda mängu mängima
14:45
And it showed that, in fact, today,
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ning see näitas, et tegelikult saab täna
14:47
the human pattern recognition machinery
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inimese mustrite tuvastamise mehhanism
14:49
is better at folding proteins than the best computers.
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valkude moodustamisega paremini hakkama kui parimad arvutid.
14:52
And when these individuals went and looked
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Ja kui vaadati, et kes on kõige parem
14:54
at who was the best protein folder in the world,
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valkude moodustaja maailmas,
14:57
it wasn't an MIT professor,
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siis polnud see MIT professor
14:59
it wasn't a CalTech student,
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ega CalTechi tudeng,
15:01
it was a person from England, from Manchester,
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see oli üks inimene Inglismaalt, Manchesterist,
15:04
a woman who, during the day,
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üks naine, kes päeval töötas
15:08
was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic
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juhataja assistendina võõrutuskliinikus
15:11
and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
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ning öösiti oli maailma parim valgumoodustaja.
15:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Daamid ja härrad,
15:18
what gives me tremendous confidence
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minus tekitab tohutut usku
15:20
in the future
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tulevikku
15:24
is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals
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fakt, et meil on praegu üksikisikutena palju rohkem võimekust,
15:28
to take on the grand challenges of this planet.
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et seista silmitsi maailma suurte probleemidega.
15:31
We have the tools with this exponential technology.
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Astmeliselt kasvav tehnoloogia annab meile tööriistad.
15:34
We have the passion of the DIY innovator.
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Meil on isetegemise-innovaatorite kirg.
15:37
We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.
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Meil on tehno-filantroobi kapital.
15:40
And we have three billion new minds
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Meil on kolm miljardit uut teadvust,
15:42
coming online to work with us
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kes tulevad meiega koostööd tegema,
15:44
to solve the grand challenges,
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et lahendada suuri probleeme,
15:46
to do that which we must do.
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ja teha seda, mida me peame tegema.
15:50
We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
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Meid ootavad ees ebatavalised aastakümned.
15:52
Thank you.
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Tänan teid.
15:54
(Applause)
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(Aplaus)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com