TED2012
Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future
Peter Diamandis: Izobilje je naša budućnost
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Na pozornici TED-a 2012, Peter Diamandis brani optimistično razmišljanje -- kako ćemo inventivnošću, inovacijama i kreativnošću pronaći rješenja za izazove koji se trenutno naziru pred nama. "Ne kažem kako nemamo problema; zasigurno imamo. No u konačnici ćemo ih savladati."
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
00:18
(Video) Announcer: Threats, in the wake of Bin Laden's death, have spiked.
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Video (najavljivač): Izraziti porast prijetnji u jeku Bin Ladenove smrti...
00:21
Announcer Two: Famine in Somalia. Announcer Three: Police pepper spray.
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Glad u Somaliji. Policija koristila suzavac.
00:23
Announcer Four: Vicious cartels. Announcer Five: Caustic cruise lines.
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Opasni karteli. (nasukani) Costa kruzer.
00:25
Announcer Six: Societal decay. Announcer Seven: 65 dead.
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Raspad društva. 65 mrtvih.
00:28
Announcer Eight: Tsunami warning. Announcer Nine: Cyberattacks.
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Upozorenje od tsunamija. Cyber-napadi.
00:30
Multiple Announcers: Drug war. Mass destruction. Tornado.
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Ratovi narko-kartela. Masovno uništenje. Tornado.
00:32
Recession. Default. Doomsday. Egypt. Syria.
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Recesija. Zadano. Sudnji dan. Egipat. Sirija.
00:34
Crisis. Death. Disaster.
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Kriza. Smrt. Katastrofa.
00:36
Oh, my God.
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O moj Bože!
00:39
Peter Diamandis: So those are just a few of the clips
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Peter Diamandis: Dakle, ovo su samo neki od isječaka
00:41
I collected over the last six months --
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koje sam sakupio tijekom posljednih šest mjeseci --
00:43
could have easily been the last six days
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moglo je lagano biti i u zadnjih šest dana ili
00:45
or the last six years.
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u zadnjih šest godina.
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The point is that the news media
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Poanta je u tome da nas mediji
00:49
preferentially feeds us negative stories
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namjerno hrane negativnim pričama
00:52
because that's what our minds pay attention to.
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jer je to ono na što naš mozak obraća pažnju.
00:55
And there's a very good reason for that.
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A tomu ima vrlo dobar razlog.
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Every second of every day,
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Svake sekunde svakoga dana
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our senses bring in way too much data
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naša osjetila primaju puno više informacija
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than we can possibly process in our brains.
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nego što ih naš mozak zapravo može obraditi.
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And because nothing is more important to us
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A s obzirom da nama ništa nije važnije
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than survival,
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od preživljavanja,
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the first stop of all of that data
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prva postaja svih tih silnih podataka
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is an ancient sliver of the temporal lobe
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je drevni sklop u sljepoočnom režnju
01:12
called the amygdala.
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zvan amigdala.
01:14
Now the amygdala is our early warning detector,
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Amigdala je naš detektor za rano upozoravanje,
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our danger detector.
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naš detektor opasnosti.
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It sorts and scours through all of the information
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On razvrstava i pretražuje sve dostupne informacije
01:22
looking for anything in the environment that might harm us.
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tražeći bilo što u okolini što bi nam moglo nauditi.
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So given a dozen news stories,
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Tako da kada dobijemo desetak novinskih članaka,
01:27
we will preferentially look
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namjerno ćemo obraćati pažnju
01:29
at the negative news.
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na negativne vijesti.
01:31
And that old newspaper saying,
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A jedna stara novinarska izreka:
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"If it bleeds it leads,"
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"Što krvavije, to prodavanije"
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is very true.
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potpuno je istinita.
01:37
So given all of our digital devices
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Uzimajući tako u obzir sve naše digitalne uređaje
01:40
that are bringing all the negative news to us
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koji nam donose sve te negativne vijesti
01:42
seven days a week, 24 hours a day,
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sedam dana u tjednu, 24 sata dnevno,
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it's no wonder that we're pessimistic.
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nije niti čudno da smo pesimistični.
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It's no wonder that people think
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Nije niti čudno da ljudi misle
01:49
that the world is getting worse.
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kako svijet postaje sve lošiji.
01:53
But perhaps that's not the case.
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No ipak, to možda i nije tako.
01:56
Perhaps instead,
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Možda je ipak to sve što nam se predočava
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it's the distortions brought to us
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samo izobličenje onoga
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of what's really going on.
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što se zbilja događa.
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Perhaps the tremendous progress we've made
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Možda nas izvanredni napredak koji smo postigli
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over the last century
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tijekom prošlog stoljeća
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by a series of forces
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slijedom raznih pokretačkih sila,
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are, in fact, accelerating to a point
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ustvari ubrzava prema tome da
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that we have the potential in the next three decades
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u sljedeća tri desetljeća imamo
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to create a world of abundance.
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potencijala stvoriti svijet izobilja.
02:18
Now I'm not saying
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Ne pokušavam reći kako
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we don't have our set of problems --
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nemamo problema --
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climate crisis, species extinction,
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klimatska kriza, izumiranje vrsta,
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water and energy shortage -- we surely do.
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nedostatak vode i energije -- zasigurno imamo.
02:27
And as humans, we are far better
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I kao ljudima, puno nam bolje ide
02:29
at seeing the problems way in advance,
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takvo uočavanje problema unaprijed,
02:32
but ultimately we knock them down.
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ali u konačnici ih savladamo.
02:36
So let's look
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Pa pogledajmo odakle smo krenuli
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at what this last century has been
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tijekom prošlog stoljeća
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to see where we're going.
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kako bi znali kamo idemo.
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Over the last hundred years,
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Tijekom zadnjih sto godina
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the average human lifespan has more than doubled,
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prosječni životni vijek čovjeka se više nego udvostručio,
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average per capita income adjusted for inflation
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prosječni dohodak po stanovniku se prilagodio inflaciji te
02:50
around the world has tripled.
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utrostručio na svjetskoj razini.
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Childhood mortality
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Smrtnost u djece se
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has come down a factor of 10.
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smanjila za 10 puta.
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Add to that the cost of food, electricity,
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Dodajte tome troškove hrane, električne energije,
02:58
transportation, communication
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prijevoza i komunikacije
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have dropped 10 to 1,000-fold.
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koji su pali od 10 do 1000 puta.
03:04
Steve Pinker has showed us
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Steve Pinker nam je pokazao
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that, in fact, we're living during the most peaceful time ever
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da mi ustvari živimo u najmirnijem dobu
03:09
in human history.
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cijele ljudske povijesti.
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And Charles Kenny
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A Charles Kenny je pokazao
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that global literacy has gone from 25 percent to over 80 percent
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kako je pismenost na svjetskoj razini porasla s 25 na 80 posto
03:16
in the last 130 years.
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u zadnjih 130 godina.
03:19
We truly are living in an extraordinary time.
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Zaista živimo u izvanrednom vremenu.
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And many people forget this.
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Puno ljudi to zaboravlja.
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And we keep setting our expectations higher and higher.
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Postavljamo naša očekivanja sve više i više.
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In fact, we redefine what poverty means.
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Ustvari, mi mijenjamo definiciju siromaštva.
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Think of this, in America today,
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Razmislite o ovome, danas u Americi,
03:33
the majority of people under the poverty line
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većina ljudi ispod granice siromaštva
03:36
still have electricity, water, toilets, refrigerators,
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još uvijek ima električnu energiju, vodu, zahode, hladnjake,
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television, mobile phones,
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televiziju, mobilne telefone,
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air conditioning and cars.
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klimatizaciju i automobile.
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The wealthiest robber barons of the last century, the emperors on this planet,
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Najbogatiji feudalni gospodari prošlog stoljeća, tadašnji vladari Planeta,
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could have never dreamed of such luxuries.
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nikada nisu mogli niti sanjati o takvoj raskoši.
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Underpinning much of this
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Glavni oslonac svemu tome je
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is technology,
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tehnologija,
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and of late,
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a u posljednje vrijeme to je
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exponentially growing technologies.
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eksponencijalno rastuća tehnologija.
04:02
My good friend Ray Kurzweil
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Moj dobar prijatelj Ray Kurzweil je pokazao
04:04
showed that any tool that becomes an information technology
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da se bilo koji alat koji postane dio informacijske tehologije
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jumps on this curve, on Moore's Law,
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prilagođava ovoj krivulji Mooreovom zakonu, te da
04:10
and experiences price performance doubling
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doživljava udvostručenje izvedbe u odnosu na cijenu
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every 12 to 24 months.
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svakih 12 do 24 mjeseci.
04:15
That's why the cellphone in your pocket
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Zato je mobilni uređaj u vašem džepu
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is literally a million times cheaper and a thousand times faster
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doslovno milijun puta jeftiniji i tisuću puta brži
04:19
than a supercomputer of the '70s.
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od superračunala iz 70-ih godina.
04:21
Now look at this curve.
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Pogledajte sada ovu krivulju.
04:23
This is Moore's Law over the last hundred years.
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To je Mooreov zakon tijekom zadnjih 100 godina.
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I want you to notice two things from this curve.
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Htio bih da zapazite dvije stvari na ovoj krivulji.
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Number one, how smooth it is --
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Kao prvo, zamijetite kako je glatka --
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through good time and bad time, war time and peace time,
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tijekom dobrih i loših razdoblja, tijekom rata i mira,
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recession, depression and boom time.
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tijekom recesije, depresije i rasta.
04:37
This is the result of faster computers
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To je posljedica bržih računala kojima
04:39
being used to build faster computers.
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se rade još brža računala.
04:42
It doesn't slow for any of our grand challenges.
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Taj proces se ne usporava za bilo koji od naših velikih izazova.
04:46
And also, even though it's plotted
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Također, iako je krivulja nacrtana
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on a log curve on the left,
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u logaritamskom mjerilu na
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it's curving upwards.
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vertikalnoj osi, strmo se penje.
04:52
The rate at which the technology is getting faster
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Sama stopa ubrzanja tehnologije
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is itself getting faster.
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je u porastu.
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And on this curve, riding on Moore's Law,
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I ta krivulja koja se pokorava Mooreovom zakonu
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are a set of extraordinarily powerful technologies
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sadrži iznimno jake tehnologije koje
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available to all of us.
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su dostupne svima nama.
05:05
Cloud computing,
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Računarstvo u oblaku,
05:07
what my friends at Autodesk call infinite computing;
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koje moji prijatelji u Autodesku zovu računarstvo bez granica,
05:09
sensors and networks; robotics;
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senzori i mreže; robotika;
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3D printing, which is the ability to democratize and distribute
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3D printanje, koje ima mogućnost demokratizacije i distribucije
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personalized production around the planet;
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personalizirane prozvodnje svakome diljem svijeta.
05:17
synthetic biology;
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sintetička biologija;
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fuels, vaccines and foods;
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izvori energije, cjepiva i hrana;
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digital medicine; nanomaterials; and A.I.
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digitalna medicina; nanomaterijali; i umjetna inteligencija.
05:25
I mean, how many of you saw the winning of Jeopardy
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Koliko je vas vidjelo pobjedu u kvizu Izazov
05:28
by IBM's Watson?
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koju je odnio IBM-ov Watson?
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I mean, that was epic.
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Mislim, to je bilo povijesno!
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In fact, I scoured the headlines
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Ustvari, pretražio sam naslove u novinama
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looking for the best headline in a newspaper I could.
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tražeći najbolji naslov koji se može pronaći.
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And I love this: "Watson Vanquishes Human Opponents."
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I ovo mi je super: "Watson pokorio ljudske protivnike."
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Jeopardy's not an easy game.
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Izazov nije lagan kviz.
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It's about the nuance of human language.
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Radi se o nijansama ljudskog jezika.
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And imagine if you would
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A zamislite umjetnu inteligenciju poput te
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A.I.'s like this on the cloud
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koja je u oblaku, dostupna
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available to every person with a cellphone.
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svakoj osobi s mobitelom.
05:54
Four years ago here at TED,
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Prije četiri godine tu na TED-u,
05:56
Ray Kurzweil and I started a new university
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Ray Kurzweil i ja smo osnovali novo sveučilište
05:58
called Singularity University.
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imenom Singularity University.
06:00
And we teach our students all of these technologies,
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I poučavamo naše studente o svim ovim tehnologijama,
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and particularly how they can be used
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te posebno kako ih se može iskoristiti
06:05
to solve humanity's grand challenges.
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za rješavanje najvećih ljudskih izazova.
06:08
And every year we ask them
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Svake godine ih tražimo
06:10
to start a company or a product or a service
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da započnu poduzeće ili proizvod ili uslugu
06:13
that can affect positively the lives of a billion people
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koja ima mogućnost pozitivnog djelovanja na živote milijarde ljudi
06:16
within a decade.
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unutar jednog desetljeća.
06:18
Think about that, the fact that, literally, a group of students
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Zamislite to, da doslovno grupica studenata
06:21
can touch the lives of a billion people today.
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može dotaknuti živote milijarde ljudi danas.
06:24
30 years ago that would have sounded ludicrous.
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Prije 30 godina to bi zvučalo smiješno.
06:26
Today we can point at dozens of companies
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Danas možemo naći desetke kompanija
06:29
that have done just that.
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koje su učinile upravo to.
06:31
When I think about creating abundance,
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Kada razmišljam kako stvoriti izobilje,
06:37
it's not about creating a life of luxury for everybody on this planet;
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nije riječ o stvaranju luksuznog života za svakoga na planeti;
06:40
it's about creating a life of possibility.
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riječ je o stvaranju života s mogućnostima.
06:43
It is about taking that which was scarce
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Riječ je o tome da se uzme ono što je rijetko
06:46
and making it abundant.
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i pretvori se u izobilje.
06:48
You see, scarcity is contextual,
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Vidite, rijetkost ovisi o kontekstu,
06:51
and technology is a resource-liberating force.
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a tehnologija je sila koja oslobađa resurse.
06:56
Let me give you an example.
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Dat ću vam primjer.
06:59
So this is a story of Napoleon III
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Ovo je priča o Napoleonu III
07:01
in the mid-1800s.
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sredinom 1800-ih godina.
07:03
He's the dude on the left.
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On je tip na lijevoj strani.
07:06
He invited over to dinner
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On je pozvao na večeru
07:08
the king of Siam.
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kralja Sijama (današnji Tajland).
07:10
All of Napoleon's troops
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Sve napoleonove postrojbe
07:12
were fed with silver utensils,
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hranile su se srebrnim priborom,
07:15
Napoleon himself with gold utensils.
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a sam Napoleon hranio se zlatnim priborom.
07:17
But the King of Siam,
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Ali sijamski kralj se
07:19
he was fed with aluminum utensils.
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hranio aluminijskim priborom.
07:21
You see, aluminum
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Vidite, aluminij je
07:23
was the most valuable metal on the planet,
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bio najvrijedniji metal na planetu,
07:26
worth more than gold and platinum.
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vrijedio je više nego zlato i platina.
07:29
It's the reason that the tip of the Washington Monument
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To je razlog što je vrh spomenika Washington
07:32
is made of aluminum.
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izrađen od aluminija.
07:34
You see, even though aluminum
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Iako aluminij sačinjava
07:36
is 8.3 percent of the Earth by mass,
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8,3 posto mase Zemlje,
07:39
it doesn't come as a pure metal.
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ne dolazi u obliku čistog metala.
07:41
It's all bound by oxygen and silicates.
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Vezan je u spojevima oksida i silikata.
07:44
But then the technology of electrolysis came along
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No onda je došla tehnologija elektrolize
07:47
and literally made aluminum so cheap
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i doslovno je toliko pojeftinila aluminij
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that we use it with throw-away mentality.
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da ga sada koristimo i odmah bacamo kao otpad.
07:53
So let's project this analogy going forward.
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Pa primjenimo tu analogiju u budućnosti.
07:57
We think about energy scarcity.
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Sada razmišljamo o nedostatku energije.
07:59
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Dame i gospodo,
08:01
we are on a planet
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mi se nalazimo na planetu
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that is bathed with 5,000 times more energy
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na kojem se nalazi 5.000 puta više energije
08:06
than we use in a year.
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nego što iskoristimo u godini dana.
08:09
16 terawatts of energy hits the Earth's surface
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16 TW energije udara o zemljinu povšinu
08:11
every 88 minutes.
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svakih 88 minuta.
08:15
It's not about being scarce,
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Nije problem u oskudnosti
08:17
it's about accessibility.
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nego u načinu iskorištavanja.
08:19
And there's good news here.
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A ima dobrih vijesti vezano uz to.
08:21
For the first time, this year
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Po prvi puta, ove godine je u Indiji
08:23
the cost of solar-generated electricity
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cijena električne energije iz solarnih izvora
08:26
is 50 percent that of diesel-generated electricity in India --
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50 posto cijene električne energije iz izvora pokretanih dizel gorivom --
08:30
8.8 rupees versus 17 rupees.
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8,8 rupija naspram 17 rupija.
08:33
The cost of solar dropped 50 percent last year.
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Prošle godine je cijena solarne energije pala za 50 posto.
08:35
Last month, MIT put out a study
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Prošli mjesec, MIT je predstavio studiju
08:37
showing that by the end of this decade,
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koja je pokazala kako će do kraja ovoga desetljeća
08:39
in the sunny parts of the United States,
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u sunčanim dijelovima SAD-a
08:41
solar electricity will be six cents a kilowatt hour
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solarna energija imati cijenu od 6 centi po kW/h
08:43
compared to 15 cents
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te 15 centi na
08:45
as a national average.
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državnoj razini u prosjeku.
08:47
And if we have abundant energy,
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A ako imamo izobilje energije,
08:50
we also have abundant water.
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imamo i izobilje vode.
08:53
Now we talk about water wars.
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Recimo sada nešto o ratovima za vodu.
08:58
Do you remember
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Sjećate li se
09:00
when Carl Sagan turned the Voyager spacecraft
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kada je Carl Sagan okrenuo letjelicu Voyager
09:02
back towards the Earth,
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natrag prema Zemlji
09:04
in 1990 after it just passed Saturn?
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odmah nakon što je prošao Saturn 1990. godine?
09:06
He took a famous photo. What was it called?
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Uslikao je poznatu fotografiju. Kako se zvala?
09:09
"A Pale Blue Dot."
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"Blijeda plava točkica."
09:11
Because we live on a water planet.
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Tako je nazvana jer živimo na vodenom planetu.
09:14
We live on a planet 70 percent covered by water.
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Živimo na planetu čijih je 70 posto prekriveno vodom.
09:17
Yes, 97.5 percent is saltwater,
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Istina, 97,5 posto je slana voda,
09:19
two percent is ice,
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dva posto je led,
09:21
and we fight over a half a percent of the water on this planet,
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a mi se svađamo oko ostalih 0,5 posto vode na planetu.
09:24
but here too there is hope.
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Ali i tu ima nade.
09:26
And there is technology coming online,
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Razvija se tehnologija
09:29
not 10, 20 years from now,
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i to ne za 10 ili 20 godina u budućnosti,
09:31
right now.
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već sada.
09:33
There's nanotechnology coming on, nanomaterials.
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Dolaze nanotehnologija i nanomaterijali.
09:36
And the conversation I had with Dean Kamen this morning,
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A razgovor koji sam imao jutros s Deanom Kamenom,
09:39
one of the great DIY innovators,
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jednim od velikih 'uradi-sam' inovatora,
09:41
I'd like to share with you -- he gave me permission to do so --
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želio bih podijeliti s vama -- dao mi je dopuštenje za to --
09:44
his technology called Slingshot
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njegova tehnologija zvana Slingshot
09:46
that many of you may have heard of,
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za koju ste možda već i čuli,
09:48
it is the size of a small dorm room refrigerator.
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veličine je malog sobnog hladnjaka.
09:50
It's able to generate
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Ima sposobnost proizvodnje
09:52
a thousand liters of clean drinking water a day
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tisuću litara čiste pitke vode svaki dan
09:54
out of any source -- saltwater, polluted water, latrine --
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iz bilo kojeg izvora -- slane vode, zagađene vode, vode iz toaleta --
09:57
at less than two cents a liter.
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i to po cijeni manjoj od 2 centa po litri.
10:02
The chairman of Coca-Cola has just agreed
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Predsjednik Coca-Cole upravo je pristao
10:04
to do a major test
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na ogromno ispitivanje stotine ovakvih
10:06
of hundreds of units of this in the developing world.
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uređaja u zemljama u razvoju.
10:09
And if that pans out,
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Ako se to ispostavi uspješnim,
10:11
which I have every confidence it will,
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u što imam puno povjerenje da hoće,
10:13
Coca-Cola will deploy this globally
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Coca-Cola će ovo proširiti na
10:15
to 206 countries
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206 zemalja
10:17
around the planet.
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diljem svijeta.
10:19
This is the kind of innovation, empowered by this technology,
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To je ta vrsta inovativnosti potpomognute tehnologijom,
10:22
that exists today.
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koja postoji danas.
10:26
And we've seen this in cellphones.
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A to smo već vidjeli kod mobitela.
10:28
My goodness, we're going to hit 70 percent penetration
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Bože dragi, dostići ćemo penetraciju od 70 posto
10:30
of cellphones in the developing world
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mobitela u zemljama u razvoju
10:32
by the end of 2013.
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do kraja 2013. godine.
10:34
Think about it,
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Razislite o tome,
10:36
that a Masai warrior on a cellphone in the middle of Kenya
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da Masai ratnik usred Kenije na mobitelu
10:39
has better mobile comm
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ima bolju mogućnost mobilne komunikacije
10:41
than President Reagan did 25 years ago.
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nego što je imao predsjednik Reagan prije 25 godina.
10:44
And if they're on a smartphone on Google,
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A ako ima smartphone s Google-om
10:46
they've got access to more knowledge and information
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imaju pristup većem znanju i informacijama
10:48
than President Clinton did 15 years ago.
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nego što je imao predsjednik Clinton prije 15 godina.
10:50
They're living in a world of information and communication abundance
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Oni žive u svijetu izobilja informacija i komunikacija
10:53
that no one could have ever predicted.
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koji nitko nije mogao predvidjeti.
10:57
Better than that,
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Još bolje,
10:59
the things that you and I
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stvari na koje smo ja i vi
11:01
spent tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars for --
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potrošili tisuće i stotine tisuća dolara --
11:03
GPS, HD video and still images,
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GPS, HD video i slike,
11:06
libraries of books and music,
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zbirke knjiga i glazbe,
11:09
medical diagnostic technology --
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tehnologija medicinske dijagnostike --
11:11
are now literally dematerializing and demonetizing
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sada gube novčanu vrijednost i doslovno se dematerijaliziraju
11:14
into your cellphone.
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u vaš mobitel.
11:19
Probably the best part of it
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Možda je najbolji dio svega
11:21
is what's coming down the pike in health.
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ono što nam dolazi u zdravstvu.
11:24
Last month, I had the pleasure of announcing with Qualcomm Foundation
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Prošli mjesec sam imao zadovoljstvo najaviti s Qualcomm Foundation-om
11:28
something called the $10 million Qualcomm Tricorder X Prize.
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nešto što zovemo "Qualcomm Tricorder X nagrada od 10 milijuna $".
11:32
We're challenging teams around the world
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Izazivamo ekipe diljem svijeta
11:34
to basically combine these technologies
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da naprosto spoje sve ove tehnologije
11:36
into a mobile device
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u mobilni uređaj s kojim
11:38
that you can speak to, because it's got A.I.,
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možete razgovarati jer posjeduje umjetnu inteligenciju,
11:40
you can cough on it, you can do a finger blood prick.
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možete zakašljati na njega, možete mu izvaditi krv iz prsta.
11:43
And to win, it needs to be able to diagnose you better
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I kako bi pobijedio, mora vam biti u mogućnosti postaviti bolju dijagnozu
11:45
than a team of board-certified doctors.
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nego što to može ekipa službeno ovlaštenih liječnika.
11:49
So literally, imagine this device
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Tako da doslovno zamislite ovakav uređaj
11:52
in the middle of the developing world where there are no doctors,
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usred zemalja u razvoju gdje nema liječnika,
11:55
25 percent of the disease burden
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25 posto ljudi je oboljelo
11:57
and 1.3 percent of the health care workers.
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a 1,3 posto populacije radi u zdravstvu.
12:00
When this device sequences an RNA or DNA virus
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Kada ovaj uređaj sekvencira RNK ili DNK virus
12:02
that it doesn't recognize,
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koji ne prepoznaje,
12:04
it calls the CDC
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zove CDC (Centar za sprečavanje zaraze)
12:06
and prevents the pandemic from happening in the first place.
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i spriječava da pandemija uopće i započne.
12:11
But here, here is the biggest force
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Ali ovo, ovo je najveća sila
12:14
for bringing about a world of abundance.
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koja će donijeti svijet izobilja.
12:16
I call it the rising billion.
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Zovem je - milijarda koja se podiže.
12:19
So the white lines here are population.
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Tu su bijele linije populacija.
12:22
We just passed the seven billion mark on Earth.
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Upravo smo prešli 7 milijardi na Zemlji.
12:25
And by the way,
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A usput, najveća
12:27
the biggest protection against a population explosion
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zaštita od eksplozije populacije
12:29
is making the world educated
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je obrazovanje i
12:31
and healthy.
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zdravlje ljudi.
12:34
In 2010,
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2010. godine smo
12:36
we had just short of two billion people
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imali skoro dvije milijarde ljudi
12:38
online, connected.
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spojenih, umreženih.
12:40
By 2020,
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Do 2020. godine
12:42
that's going from two billion to five billion
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taj broj će od dvije milijarde doseći pet milijardi
12:44
Internet users.
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korisnika Interneta.
12:46
Three billion new minds
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tri milijarde novih umova
12:48
who have never been heard from before
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koje nikada prije nismo čuli,
12:50
are connecting to the global conversation.
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uključuju se u globalni razgovor.
12:54
What will these people want?
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Što će ti ljudi htjeti?
12:56
What will they consume? What will they desire?
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Što će konzumirati? Što će željeti?
12:58
And rather than having economic shutdown,
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I umjesto da doživimo ekonomski slom,
13:00
we're about to have the biggest economic injection ever.
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uskoro ćemo doživjeti najveću ekonomsku injekciju ikad.
13:03
These people represent
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Ovi ljudi predstavljaju
13:05
tens of trillions of dollars
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desetke bilijuna dolara
13:07
injected into the global economy.
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utrošenih u globalnu ekonomiju.
13:10
And they will get healthier
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Oni će postati i zdraviji
13:12
by using the Tricorder,
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koristeći Tricorder,
13:14
and they'll become better educated by using the Khan Academy,
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postat će i obrazovaniji koristeći Khan Akademiju,
13:16
and by literally being able to use
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te doslovnim korištenjem
13:19
3D printing and infinite computing
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3D printanja i računarstva u oblaku
13:22
[become] more productive than ever before.
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postati će produktivniji nego ikada.
13:25
So what could three billion rising,
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Što bi nam onda tri milijarde koje se podižu,
13:28
healthy, educated, productive members of humanity
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zdravi, obrazovani, produktivni članovi čovječanstva,
13:31
bring to us?
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mogli donijeti?
13:33
How about a set of voices that have never been heard from before.
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Možda glasove koje nikada dosada nismo čuli.
13:36
What about giving the oppressed,
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Što sa time što će se potlačenima,
13:38
wherever they might be,
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gdje god se oni nalazili,
13:40
the voice to be heard and the voice to act
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dati glas koji se može čuti i koji može djelovati
13:42
for the first time ever?
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po prvi put ikada?
13:45
What will these three billion people bring?
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Što će te tri milijarde ljudi donijeti?
13:48
What about contributions we can't even predict?
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Možda doprinose koje ne možemo niti predvidjeti?
13:51
The one thing I've learned at the X Prize
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Jedna stvar koju sam naučio na X Prize-u
13:53
is that small teams
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je da mali timovi
13:55
driven by their passion with a clear focus
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koje pokreće strast a jasnim fokusom
13:58
can do extraordinary things,
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mogu učiniti izvanredne stvari,
14:00
things that large corporations and governments
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stvari koje su velike korporacije i vlade
14:02
could only do in the past.
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mogle učiniti jedino u prošlosti.
14:05
Let me share and close with a story
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Dopustite mi da završim tako da podijelim
14:07
that really got me excited.
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s vama priču koja me stvarno uzbuđuje.
14:10
There is a program that some of you might have heard of.
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Postoji jedan program za koji ste možda čuli.
14:12
It's a game called Foldit.
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To je igra imenom Foldit.
14:14
It came out of the University of Washington in Seattle.
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Napravljena je na Sveučilištu Washington u Seattle-u.
14:18
And this is a game
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To je igra u kojoj
14:20
where individuals can actually take a sequence of amino acids
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pojedinci mogu uzeti slijed aminokiselina
14:24
and figure out how the protein is going to fold.
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i predvidjeti kako će se protein posložiti.
14:28
And how it folds dictates its structure and its functionality.
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A to kako se posloži uvjetuje njegovu strukturu i funkcionalnost.
14:30
And it's very important for research in medicine.
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I to je vrlo važno za istraživanja u medicini.
14:33
And up until now, it's been a supercomputer problem.
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A sve do sada, to je bio problem koji su rješavala superračunala.
14:36
And this game has been played
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Ovu igru su igrali i
14:38
by university professors and so forth.
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sveučilišni profesori i sl.
14:40
And it's literally, hundreds of thousands of people
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I doslovno, stotine tisuća ljudi su
14:43
came online and started playing it.
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došli online i počeli igrati tu igru.
14:45
And it showed that, in fact, today,
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I to je sve pokazalo da su danas ustvari,
14:47
the human pattern recognition machinery
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ljudi i njihovo sklopovlje za prepoznavanje uzoraka
14:49
is better at folding proteins than the best computers.
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bolji u slaganju proteina nego najbolja računala.
14:52
And when these individuals went and looked
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A kada su pojedinci otišli pogledati
14:54
at who was the best protein folder in the world,
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tko je najbolji na svijetu u slaganju proteina,
14:57
it wasn't an MIT professor,
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to nije bio profesor s MIT-a,
14:59
it wasn't a CalTech student,
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niti je to bio student CalTech-a,
15:01
it was a person from England, from Manchester,
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nego je to bila osoba iz Engleske, iz Manchestera,
15:04
a woman who, during the day,
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žena koja je tijekom dana
15:08
was an executive assistant at a rehab clinic
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bila izvršni asistent u klinici za odvikavanje
15:11
and, at night, was the world's best protein folder.
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a tijekom noći je bila najbolji slagač proteina na svijetu.
15:16
Ladies and gentlemen,
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Dame i gospodo,
15:18
what gives me tremendous confidence
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ono što mi daje iznimno povjerenje
15:20
in the future
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u budućnost,
15:24
is the fact that we are now more empowered as individuals
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jest činjenica da smo sada kao pojedinci ojačani
15:28
to take on the grand challenges of this planet.
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za savladavanje svjetskih izazova.
15:31
We have the tools with this exponential technology.
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Imamo alate s ovom eksponencijalno rastućom tehnologijom.
15:34
We have the passion of the DIY innovator.
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Imamo strast kao inovatori.
15:37
We have the capital of the techno-philanthropist.
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Imamo kapital kao tehnološki filantropi.
15:40
And we have three billion new minds
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I konačno, imamo tri milijarde novih umova
15:42
coming online to work with us
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koji dolaze online da bi radili s nama
15:44
to solve the grand challenges,
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na rješavanju svjetskih izazova
15:46
to do that which we must do.
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i da bi napravili ono što se treba napraviti.
15:50
We are living into extraordinary decades ahead.
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Iznimna su desetljeća ispred nas.
15:52
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
15:54
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
Reviewed by Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com