TED2009
Nate Silver: Does racism affect how you vote?
Nate Silver: Utječe li rasa na glasove?
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Nate Silver ima odgovore na kontroverzna pitanja vezana uz rasu u politici: Je li Obamina rasa naštetila njegovim glasovima u nekim mjestima? Statistike i mitovi susreću se u ovom fascinantnom govoru koji završava uvidom u to kako planiranje gradova može promovirati toleranciju.
Nate Silver - Statistician
Math whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames -- until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries. Full bio
Math whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames -- until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I want to talk about the election.
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Želim pričati o izborima.
00:18
For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters
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Prvi puta u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama, grupa većinski bijelih glasača
00:21
voted for an African-American candidate for President.
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glasala je za Afro-Američkog kandidata za Predsjednika.
00:24
And in fact Barack Obama did quite well.
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I ustvari Barack Obama je postigao dobar uspjeh.
00:26
He won 375 electoral votes.
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Osvojio je 375 elektorskih glasova.
00:28
And he won about 70 million popular votes
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I dobio je oko 70 milijuna glasova popularnosti više
00:31
more than any other presidential candidate --
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od bilo kojeg drugog predsjedničkog kandidata,
00:33
of any race, of any party -- in history.
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bilo koje rase, bilo koje stranke, u povijesti.
00:36
If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier --
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Ako usporedimo uspjeh Obame s uspjehom Johna Kerrya četiri godine prije --
00:40
Democrats really like seeing this transition here,
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Demokrati stvarno vole vidjeti ovaj prijelaz,
00:43
where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic --
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gdje gotovo svaka država postaje više plava, postaje više demokratska ---
00:47
even states Obama lost, like out west,
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čak i u državama u kojima je Obama izgubio, kao na zapadu.
00:49
those states became more blue.
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Te države postaju više plave.
00:51
In the south, in the northeast, almost everywhere
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Na jugu, sjeveroistoku, gotovo svugdje
00:54
but with a couple of exceptions here and there.
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ali uz pokoju iznimku tu i tamo.
00:57
One exception is in Massachusetts.
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Jedna iznimka je Massachusetts.
00:59
That was John Kerry's home state.
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To je rodna zemlja Johna Kerrya.
01:01
No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there.
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Nije veliko iznenađenje, Obama nije mogao proći bolje od Kerrya ondje.
01:03
Or in Arizona, which is John McCain's home,
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Ili u Arizoni, koja je dom Johna McCaina,
01:05
Obama didn't have much improvement.
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Obama nije imao neko poboljšanje.
01:07
But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here.
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Ali postoji i ovaj dio zemlje, negdje u sredini regije ovdje.
01:09
This kind of Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia region.
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Ova regija koja obuhvaća Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahomu i Zapadnu Virginiu.
01:13
Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton --
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Ako pogledate '96, Billa Clintona,
01:15
the last Democrat to actually win -- how he did in '96,
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posljednjeg Demokrata koji je zaista pobijedio, kako i je '96,
01:18
you see real big differences in this part of the country right here,
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vidi se velika razlika u ovom ovdje djelu zemlje --
01:21
the kind of Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it:
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regija planina Appalachian, Ozarka, regija visoravni, kako ju ja zovem.
01:25
20 or 30 point swings
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20 ili 30 bodova mijenja se
01:27
from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did
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od rezultata Billa Clintona '96 do rezultata Obame
01:29
in 2008.
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u 2008.
01:31
Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very, very profound differences.
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Da, Bill Clinton je bio iz Arkansasa, ali ovo su vrlo vrlo profinjene razlike.
01:36
So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know.
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Pa. dok razmišljamo o dijelovima zemlje poput Arkansasa, znate.
01:38
There is a book written called, "What's the Matter with Kansas?"
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Napisana je knjiga: Što nije u redu s Kanzasom?
01:41
But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas.
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Ali pravo pitanje -- Obama je prošao relativno dobro u Kanzasu.
01:44
He lost badly but every Democrat does.
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Izgubio je ali svaki Demokrat izgubi.
01:46
He lost no worse than most people do.
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Izgubio je ne puno gore od ostalih.
01:48
But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas?
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Ali stvarno, što nije u redu s Arkansasom?
01:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:53
And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations.
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I kad razmišljamo o Arkansasu često imamo poprilično negativne konotacije.
01:56
We think of a bunch of rednecks, quote, unquote, with guns.
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Razmišljamo o hrpi seljaka, navod, kraj navoda, s oružjem.
01:59
And we think people like this probably don't want to vote
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I smatramo kako ovakvi ljudi vjerojatno ne žele glasati
02:02
for people who look like this and are named Barack Obama.
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za ljude koji izgledaju ovako, i zovu se Barack Obama.
02:05
We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair?
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Smatramo da je to pitanje rase. I je li to pošteno?
02:08
Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country?
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Stigmatiziramo li ljude iz Arkansasa, i ovog dijela zemlje?
02:11
And the answer is: it is at least partially fair.
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I odgovor je, bar djelomično točan.
02:14
We know that race was a factor, and the reason why we know that
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Znamo da je rasa činitelj, i razlog zbog kojeg to znamo je
02:16
is because we asked those people.
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to što smo pitali te ljude.
02:18
Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted
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Zapravo nismo ih pitali, ali kada su podvrgnuti
02:20
exit polls in every state,
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izlaznim anketama u svakoj državi,
02:22
in 37 states, out of the 50,
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u 37 država, od 50,
02:24
they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race.
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pitali su pitanje, koje je bilo direktno, vezano uz rasu.
02:27
They asked this question.
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Pitali su ovo pitanje.
02:29
In deciding your vote for President today, was the race
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U odlučivanju za koga glasati za Predsjednika danas, je li rasa
02:31
of the candidate a factor?
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kandidata bila faktor?
02:33
We're looking for people that said, "Yes, race was a factor;
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Tražimo ljude koji su rekli: "Da, rasa je bila faktor,
02:36
moreover it was an important factor, in my decision,"
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štoviše bila je važan faktor u mojoj odluci."
02:38
and people who voted for John McCain
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I ljudi koji su glasali za Johna McCaina
02:41
as a result of that factor,
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kao rezultat tog faktora,
02:43
maybe in combination with other factors, and maybe alone.
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mogu biti u kombinaciji s drugim faktorima, a mogu biti i sami.
02:45
We're looking for this behavior among white voters
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Tražimo ovakvo ponašanje među bijelim biračima,
02:48
or, really, non-black voters.
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ili zapravo, ne-crnim glasačima.
02:51
So you see big differences in different parts
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Tako da možete vidjeti, velike razlike u različitim dijelovima
02:53
of the country on this question.
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zemlje, na ovo pitanje.
02:55
In Louisiana, about one in five white voters
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U Louisiani, otprilike jedan od pet bijelih glasača
02:58
said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama
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rekao je, "Da, jedan od velikih razloga zašto sam glasao protiv Baracka Obame
03:01
is because he was an African-American."
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je zato što je on Afro-Amerikanac."
03:03
If those people had voted for Obama,
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Da su ti ljudi glasali za Obamu,
03:05
even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely.
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čak i samo polovica, Obama bi bez problema pobijedio u Louisiani.
03:09
Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see on the top of the list.
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Isto je točno sa, ja mislim, svim državama koje vidite na vrhu popisa.
03:11
Meanwhile, California, New York, we can say, "Oh we're enlightened"
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U međuvremenu, California, New York. Za njih možemo reći, "O mi smo prosvijetljeni,"
03:15
but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this
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ali znate, puno manji dio
03:17
admitted, I suppose,
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priznaje, pretpostavljam
03:19
manifestation of racially-based voting.
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da je ovo odraz glasanja po rasnoj osnovi.
03:22
Here is the same data on a map.
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Ovo su isti ti podaci na karti.
03:24
You kind of see the relationship between
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Možete vidjeti vezu između
03:26
the redder states of where more people responded and said,
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crvenijih država gdje je više ljudi odgovorilo i reklo,
03:28
"Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me."
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"Da, rasa Baracka Obame je bila problem za mene."
03:31
You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here.
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Vidite, ako uspoređujemo kartu sa '96, vidimo preklapanje ovdje.
03:34
This really seems to explain
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To zaista objašnjava
03:36
why Barack Obama did worse
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zašto je Barack Obama prošao lošije
03:38
in this one part of the country.
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u ovom dijelu države.
03:40
So we have to ask why.
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Zato se moramo pitati zašto.
03:42
Is racism predictable in some way?
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Je li rasizam predvidljiv na neki način?
03:44
Is there something driving this?
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Postoji li nešto što potiče ovo?
03:46
Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas
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Je li to povezano s nekim čudnim stvarima koje se događaju u Arkansasu
03:48
that we don't understand, and Kentucky?
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koje ne razumijemo, i Kentuckyu?
03:50
Or are there more systematic factors at work?
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Ili su ovdje sistematični činitelji na djelu?
03:52
And so we can look at a bunch of different variables.
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Tako da možemo pogledati mnoštvo različitih varijabli.
03:54
These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time --
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Ovo su stvari koje ekonomisti i politički znanstvenici gledaju cijelo vrijeme --
03:57
things like income, and religion, education.
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stvari kao prihod, vjera, obrazovanje.
04:00
Which of these seem to drive
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Što od ovoga potiče
04:02
this manifestation of racism
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ovu manifestaciju rasizma
04:04
in this big national experiment we had on November 4th?
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u ovom velikom nacionalnom eksperimentu koji smo imali četvrtog studenog?
04:07
And there are a couple of these that have
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I postoji nekoliko ovih činitelja koji imaju
04:09
strong predictive relationships,
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jake predvidljive poveznice --
04:11
one of which is education,
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jedna od kojih je obrazovanje.
04:14
where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling
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Gdje se vidi da države koje imaju najmanje godina školovanja
04:16
per adult are in red,
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po odrasloj osobi, su u crvenom
04:18
and you see this part of the country, the kind of Appalachians region,
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i vidite ovaj dio zemlje, regiju planina Appalachian,
04:21
is less educated. It's just a fact.
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koja je manje obrazovana. To je jednostavno činjenica.
04:23
And you see the relationship there
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I vidite poveznicu ovdje
04:25
with the racially-based voting patterns.
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s rasno uvjetovanim uzorcima glasovanja.
04:28
The other variable that's important is
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Druga važna varijabla je
04:30
the type of neighborhood that you live in.
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vrsta naselja u kojem živite.
04:33
States that are more rural --
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Države koje su više ruralne,
04:35
even to some extent of the states like New Hampshire and Maine --
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čak i neke države kao New Hampshire i Maine,
04:37
they exhibit a little bit of
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one pokazuju malo
04:39
this racially-based voting against Barack Obama.
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rasno uvjetovanog glasanja protiv Baracka Obame.
04:42
So it's the combination of these two things: it's education
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Tako da je to kombinacija ove dvije stvari. Obrazovanja
04:44
and the type of neighbors that you have,
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i vrste naselja u kojoj ste,
04:46
which we'll talk about more in a moment.
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o čemu ćemo za trenutak malo više razgovarati.
04:48
And the thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee
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Stvar kod država kao što su Arkansas i Tennessee
04:50
is that they're both very rural,
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je to da su obje vrlo ruralne,
04:52
and they are educationally impoverished.
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i da su u zaostatku s obrazovanjem.
04:56
So yes, racism is predictable.
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Tako da je rasizam predvidljiv.
04:58
These things, among maybe other variables,
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Ove stvari, između ostalih varijabli,
05:00
but these things seem to predict it.
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ali ove stvari ih čini se predviđaju.
05:02
We're going to drill down a little bit more now,
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Sada ćemo zagrepsti malo dublje,
05:04
into something called the General Social Survey.
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u nešto što se zove Opće Društveno Ispitivanje.
05:06
This is conducted by the University of Chicago
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Ono se provodi od strane Sveučilišta u Chicagu
05:08
every other year.
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svake druge godine.
05:10
And they ask a series of really interesting questions.
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I oni postavljaju niz vrlo zanimljivih pitanja.
05:12
In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions
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2000-te imali su posebno zanimljiva pitanja
05:14
about racial attitudes.
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o rasnim stavovima.
05:16
One simple question they asked is,
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Jedno jednostavno pitanje koje su postavili,
05:18
"Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?"
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"Živi li netko suprotne rase u vašem susjedstvu?"
05:22
We can see in different types of communities that the results are quite different.
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Možemo vidjeti kako su rezultati različiti po zajednicama.
05:25
In cites, about 80 percent of people
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U gradovima, oko 80 posto ljudi
05:28
have someone whom they consider a neighbor of another race,
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ima u svom susjedstvu nekog koga smatra druge rase.
05:31
but in rural communities, only about 30 percent.
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Ali u ruralnim zajednicama, samo 30 posto.
05:34
Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period.
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Vjerojatno zato što živite na farmi, nemate mnogo susjeda.
05:37
But nevertheless, you're not having a lot of interaction with people
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No unatoč tome, nemate veliku interakciju s ljudima
05:40
who are unlike you.
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koji nisu poput vas.
05:42
So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey
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Tako da ćemo sada uzeti bijele ljude iz ispitivanja
05:45
and split them between those who have black neighbors --
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i podijeliti ih na one koji imaju afroamerikanca za susjeda
05:48
or, really, some neighbor of another race --
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ili zapravo, susjeda druge rase.
05:50
and people who have only white neighbors.
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Ljudi koji imaju samo bijele susjede.
05:53
And we see in some variables
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I vidimo u nekim varijablama
05:55
in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference.
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kada gledamo političke stavove, da nema puno razlike.
05:57
This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then.
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Ovo je bilo prije osam godina, neki ljudi su bili više okrenuti Republikancima tada.
06:00
But you see Democrats versus Republican,
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Ali vidite Demokrati protiv Republikanaca,
06:02
not a big difference based on who your neighbors are.
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nema velike razlike na osnovu toga tko vam je susjed.
06:05
And even some questions about race -- for example
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Pa čak i neka pitanja o rasi, na primjer
06:07
affirmative action, which is kind of a political question,
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afirmativne akcije, što je političko pitanje,
06:09
a policy question about race, if you will --
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pitanje stava o rasi, ako želite.
06:11
not much difference here.
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Nema ni tu puno razlike.
06:13
Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period.
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Afirmativna akcija nije vrlo popularna iskreno, ni s bijelim glasačima, točka.
06:16
But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods
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Ali ljudi sa crnim susjedima i ljudi iz zajednica s jednom rasom
06:19
feel no differently about it really.
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nemaju različite stavove o tome.
06:22
But if you probe a bit deeper and get a bit more personal if you will,
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Ali ako zagrebemo malo dublje, ako odemo na malo osobniju razinu,
06:26
"Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?"
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"Da li podržavate zakon koji će braniti brakove između rasa?"
06:28
There is a big difference.
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Postoji velika razlika.
06:30
People who don't have neighbors of a different race
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Ljudi koji nemaju susjede druge rase
06:32
are about twice as likely
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su otprilike dvaput skloniji
06:34
to oppose interracial marriage as people who do.
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protiviti se međurasnom braku, za razliku od ljudi koji imaju.
06:37
Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you.
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Na osnovi toga tko živi u vašem neposrednom susjedstvu.
06:40
And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996,
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I isto to su pitali, ne 2000., već u istom istraživanju 1996,
06:44
"Would you not vote for a qualified black president?"
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"Bi li glasali protiv kvalificiranog crnog predsjednika?"
06:48
You see people without neighbors who are African-American who
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Vidite da su ljudi bez susjeda koji su Afro-Amerikanci
06:50
were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem."
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bili skloniji reći, "To bi mi stvaralo problem."
06:53
So it's really not even about urban versus rural.
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Dakle nije stvar u urbanom protiv ruralnog.
06:55
It's about who you live with.
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Stvar je u onom s kim živite.
06:57
Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by
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Rasizam je predvidljiv. I predvidljiv je
06:59
interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
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interakcijom ili nedostatkom iste s ljudima koji nisu poput vas, ljudima druge rase.
07:03
So if you want to address it,
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Ukoliko ga želite riješiti,
07:05
the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races.
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cilj je organizirati interakciju s ljudima drugih rasa.
07:08
I have a couple of very obvious, I suppose,
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Imam nekoliko vrlo očitih,
07:10
ideas for maybe how to do that.
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ideja kako to možda učiniti.
07:13
I'm a big fan of cities.
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Ja sam veliki obožavatelj gradova.
07:15
Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable,
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Osobito ako imamo gradove koji su raznoliki i održivi,
07:18
and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups.
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i mogu podržavati ljude različitih etničkih skupina i različith prihoda.
07:21
I think cities facilitate more of the kind of networking,
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Mislim da gradovi potiču više umrežavanja,
07:24
the kind of casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis.
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i spontane interakcije nego što inače imate na dnevnoj bazi.
07:27
But also not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York.
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Naravno da ne žele svi živjeti u gradu, naravno ne u gradu kao što je New York.
07:30
So we can think more about things like street grids.
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Tako da možemo razmišljati o mrežama ulica.
07:33
This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan.
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Ovo je naselje u kojem sam ja odrastao u East Lansingu, Michigan.
07:35
It's a traditional Midwestern community, which means you have real grid.
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To je tradicionalna zajednica srednjeg zapada, što znači da imate pravu mrežu.
07:38
You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on.
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Imate prava susjedstva i pravo drveće, i prave ulice po kojima možeš hodati.
07:41
And you interact a lot with your neighbors --
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I u interakciji ste sa svojim susjedima,
07:44
people you like, people you might not know.
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ljudima koji vam se sviđaju, ljudima koje ne poznajete.
07:46
And as a result it's a very tolerant community,
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I kao rezultat to postaje jedna vrlo tolerantna zajednica,
07:49
which is different, I think, than something like this,
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što je drugačije, ja mislim, od nečega poput ovoga,
07:51
which is in Schaumburg, Illinois,
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što možemo vidjeti u Schaumburgu, Illinois.
07:53
where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac
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Gdje je svaka grupa kuća u vlastitoj slijepoj ulici
07:56
and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that.
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i drive-through Starbucks i takve stvari.
07:58
I think that actually this type of urban design,
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Mislim da zapravo ovaj tip urbanog dizajna,
08:01
which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s --
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koji je počeo prevladavati u sedamdesetima i osamdesetima.
08:04
I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming
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Vjerujem da postoji veza između toga i situacije gdje zemlja
08:07
more conservative under Ronald Reagan.
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postaje konzervativnija, pod Ronaldom Reganom.
08:09
But also here is another idea we have --
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Ali ipak, tu je i druga ideja --
08:12
is an intercollegiate exchange program
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tu je program razmjene
08:14
where you have students going from New York abroad.
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gdje studenti iz New York-a putuju u inozemstvo.
08:17
But frankly there are enough differences within the country now
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Ali iskreno postoji dovoljno razlika unutar zemlje
08:19
where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU,
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gdje ćete naći mnoštvo klinaca sa sveučilišta u New Yorku,
08:22
have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas,
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koji su otišli studirati jedan semestar na sveučilište u Arkansasu,
08:24
and vice versa. Do it at the high school level.
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i obrnuto. Napravimo to na razini srednjih škola.
08:27
Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee
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Doslovno postoje ljudi koji mogu ići u školu u Arkansas ili Tennessee,
08:30
and might never interact in a positive affirmative way
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i nikad neće biti u interakciji na pozitivan način
08:33
with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group.
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s nekim iz drugog dijela zemlje, ili drugom rasnom grupom.
08:37
I think part of the education variable we talked about before
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Mislim da je dio edukativne varijable o kojoj smo razgovarali prije
08:40
is the networking experience you get when you go to college
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iskustvo umrežavanja koje dobijete kada idete na fakultet
08:42
where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise.
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sa mješavinom ljudi s kojima inače možda ne bi bili u interakciji.
08:46
But the point is, this is all good news,
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Ali poanta je, da su ovo sve dobre vijesti.
08:48
because when something is predictable,
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S obzirom na to da je predvidljivo,
08:51
it is what I call designable.
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to je ono što zovemo uredivim.
08:53
You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem,
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Možete početi razmišljati o rješenjima za taj problem.
08:55
even if the problem is pernicious and as intractable as racism.
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Čak i ako je ovaj problem opasan, i tvrdoglav kao rasizam.
08:58
If we understand the root causes of the behavior
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Ako razumijemo korijene ovakvog ponašanja
09:00
and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't,
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i gdje se ono pojavljuje a gdje ne,
09:02
we can start to design solutions to it.
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možemo početi stvarati rješenja za tu situaciju.
09:05
So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much.
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Tako da je to sve što imam reći. Hvala vam puno.
09:07
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nate Silver - StatisticianMath whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames -- until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries.
Why you should listen
In the 2008 election season's closing weeks, throngs of wonks and laypeople alike were glued to FiveThirtyEight.com, a habitforming political blog. Red and blue bar charts crowded the scrollbars as the pulse of exit polls crept along the site's latest projections. It seemed almost miraculous: In a year of acute turns of favor, the site's owner and mouthpiece, Nate Silver (who blogged anonymously as "Poblano" until outing himself on May 30, 2008, as a baseball numberhead), managed to predict the winners of every U.S. Senate contest -- and the general Presidential election.
Besides being just-damn-fascinating, Silver's analysis is a decidedly contrarian gauntlet thrown before an unrepentant, spectacle-driven media. The up-and-coming pundit, who cut his teeth forecasting the performance of Major League Baseball players, has a fairly direct explanation of why most projections fail: "Polls are cherry-picked based on their brand name or shock value rather than their track record of accuracy."
Silver's considerable smarts are already helping local campaigns build constituencies and strategize. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't.
Nate Silver | Speaker | TED.com