TED2009
Nate Silver: Does racism affect how you vote?
内特·希尔沃：种族会影响选票吗？
Filmed:
Readability: 4
498,847 views
在一些地区奥巴马的肤色是否影响到他的选票？这一政治上很有争议的种族问题，内特·希尔沃给了我们他的见解。各种数据、传言在这一引人入胜的演讲中交相辉映，演讲最终以阐述城镇设计如何能够促进人们的接受能力这样一种卓越的远见而结束。
Nate Silver - Statistician
Math whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames -- until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries. Full bio
Math whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames -- until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I want to talk about the election.
0
0
3000
我想谈谈这次的大选。
00:18
For the first time in the United States, a predominantly white group of voters
1
3000
3000
这是美国历史上第一次，多数的白人
00:21
voted for an African-American candidate for President.
2
6000
3000
把票投给了一个非洲裔总统候选人。
00:24
And in fact Barack Obama did quite well.
3
9000
2000
而实际上贝拉克·奥巴马的确表现的很好。
00:26
He won 375 electoral votes.
4
11000
2000
他赢得了375张选举人的投票。
00:28
And he won about 70 million popular votes
5
13000
3000
而且他还赢得了大约7000万的民众选票。
00:31
more than any other presidential candidate --
6
16000
2000
比其他任何的总统候选人的票数都要多，
00:33
of any race, of any party -- in history.
7
18000
3000
无论是来自任何政党，任何种族。
00:36
If you compare how Obama did against how John Kerry had done four years earlier --
8
21000
4000
如果对比一下奥巴马与四年前约翰·克里的表现--
00:40
Democrats really like seeing this transition here,
9
25000
3000
民主党人还真是很高兴看到这一转变，
00:43
where almost every state becomes bluer, becomes more democratic --
10
28000
4000
几乎每一个州都变得比以前更蓝了，变得更民主了--
00:47
even states Obama lost, like out west,
11
32000
2000
即使是在奥巴马没有赢的那些州，像是除西部之外的那些。
00:49
those states became more blue.
12
34000
2000
那些州也变的更蓝了。
00:51
In the south, in the northeast, almost everywhere
13
36000
3000
在南部地区，东北地区，几乎到处都是
00:54
but with a couple of exceptions here and there.
14
39000
3000
但是各个地方也有那么几个例外。
00:57
One exception is in Massachusetts.
15
42000
2000
一个例外是在马萨诸塞州。
00:59
That was John Kerry's home state.
16
44000
2000
那个州是约翰·克里的家乡。
01:01
No big surprise, Obama couldn't do better than Kerry there.
17
46000
2000
奥巴马在那的表现不如克里也没什么好奇怪的。
01:03
Or in Arizona, which is John McCain's home,
18
48000
2000
或者是在亚利桑那州，约翰·麦凯恩的家乡，
01:05
Obama didn't have much improvement.
19
50000
2000
奥巴马也没有太大的进展。
01:07
But there is also this part of the country, kind of in the middle region here.
20
52000
2000
但是在美国也有这样一部分差不多在中部的地区。
01:09
This kind of Arkansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, West Virginia region.
21
54000
4000
像是阿肯色州，田纳西州，俄克拉荷马州，西弗吉尼亚州这类的地方。
01:13
Now if you look at '96, Bill Clinton --
22
58000
2000
如果你现在看一下96年，比尔·克林顿，
01:15
the last Democrat to actually win -- how he did in '96,
23
60000
3000
最后一位取得胜利的民主党人，他在96年的表现，
01:18
you see real big differences in this part of the country right here,
24
63000
3000
就在这你会看到美国的这个地区巨大的差异--
01:21
the kind of Appalachians, Ozarks, highlands region, as I call it:
25
66000
4000
像是阿巴拉契亚山脉，奥索卡山脉这样的高原地区，我是这么叫的。
01:25
20 or 30 point swings
26
70000
2000
二十或三十点的波动
01:27
from how Bill Clinton did in '96 to how Obama did
27
72000
2000
自从比尔·克林顿在96年的表现到奥巴马的表现
01:29
in 2008.
28
74000
2000
在2008年里。
01:31
Yes Bill Clinton was from Arkansas, but these are very, very profound differences.
29
76000
5000
是的，比尔·克林顿确实是来自阿肯色州的，但是这些也都是非常非常巨大的差异。
01:36
So, when we think about parts of the country like Arkansas, you know.
30
81000
2000
所以，当我们想到像美国阿肯色州这样的地方的时候，你们就了解了吧。
01:38
There is a book written called, "What's the Matter with Kansas?"
31
83000
3000
有一本叫《堪萨斯州是怎么了？》的书
01:41
But really the question here -- Obama did relatively well in Kansas.
32
86000
3000
但问题就是--奥巴马在堪萨斯州的表现相对来说还是不错的。
01:44
He lost badly but every Democrat does.
33
89000
2000
他确实输的很惨，但是每个民主党人也都会输。
01:46
He lost no worse than most people do.
34
91000
2000
他输的其实还不像大部分人那么惨。
01:48
But yeah, what's the matter with Arkansas?
35
93000
4000
不过是呀，阿肯色州又是怎么了？
01:52
(Laughter)
36
97000
1000
（笑声）
01:53
And when we think of Arkansas we tend to have pretty negative connotations.
37
98000
3000
而当我们想到阿肯色州的时候我们会倾向于有一种很消极的概念。
01:56
We think of a bunch of rednecks, quote, unquote, with guns.
38
101000
3000
（原话起）“我们会想到一群乡下人”（原话止）拿着枪。
01:59
And we think people like this probably don't want to vote
39
104000
3000
而我们觉得像这样的人大概是不会想把票投给
02:02
for people who look like this and are named Barack Obama.
40
107000
3000
像这样的长相，名字叫贝拉克·奥巴马的人的。
02:05
We think it's a matter of race. And is this fair?
41
110000
3000
我们认为这是种族问题。而这样想公平吗？
02:08
Are we kind of stigmatizing people from Arkansas, and this part of the country?
42
113000
3000
我们是不是有点在侮蔑来自阿肯色州乃至美国这个地区的人？
02:11
And the answer is: it is at least partially fair.
43
116000
3000
而答案是，至少一部分是公平的。
02:14
We know that race was a factor, and the reason why we know that
44
119000
2000
我们知道种族确实是一个因素，而我们明白这个道理的原因
02:16
is because we asked those people.
45
121000
2000
是因为我们询问了那些人。
02:18
Actually we didn't ask them, but when they conducted
46
123000
2000
其实我们没有真的去问他们，只是当他们组织
02:20
exit polls in every state,
47
125000
2000
每个州投票之后的民意调查的时候
02:22
in 37 states, out of the 50,
48
127000
2000
在50个州中的37个州
02:24
they asked a question, that was pretty direct, about race.
49
129000
3000
他们相当直接的询问了一个关于种族的问题。
02:27
They asked this question.
50
132000
2000
他们问的是这个问题：
02:29
In deciding your vote for President today, was the race
51
134000
2000
在你做出投票决定的时候时，候选人的种族是
02:31
of the candidate a factor?
52
136000
2000
一个影响因素吗？
02:33
We're looking for people that said, "Yes, race was a factor;
53
138000
3000
我们找的是那些回答：“是的，种族是一个影响因素；
02:36
moreover it was an important factor, in my decision,"
54
141000
2000
而且在我的决定中是一个重要的因素。”的人
02:38
and people who voted for John McCain
55
143000
3000
而为约翰·麦凯恩投票的那些人
02:41
as a result of that factor,
56
146000
2000
结果就是因为那个因素，
02:43
maybe in combination with other factors, and maybe alone.
57
148000
2000
也许还夹杂着其他的因素，也许只是这一个。
02:45
We're looking for this behavior among white voters
58
150000
3000
我们在白种人投票者中寻找着有这样看法的人，
02:48
or, really, non-black voters.
59
153000
3000
或者实际上就是那些非黑人选民。
02:51
So you see big differences in different parts
60
156000
2000
所以你们可以看到美国不同的地区都是有很大的差异的
02:53
of the country on this question.
61
158000
2000
在这个问题上。
02:55
In Louisiana, about one in five white voters
62
160000
3000
在路易斯安那州，大约5个白种人投票者中就有一个
02:58
said, "Yes, one of the big reasons why I voted against Barack Obama
63
163000
3000
说：“是的，我投票反对贝拉克·奥巴马的很大原因之一
03:01
is because he was an African-American."
64
166000
2000
就是因为他是一个非裔美国人。
03:03
If those people had voted for Obama,
65
168000
2000
如果那些人当初把票投给了奥巴马，
03:05
even half of them, Obama would have won Louisiana safely.
66
170000
4000
即使只有一半，奥巴马都会很有把握地赢得路易斯安那州。
03:09
Same is true with, I think, all of these states you see on the top of the list.
67
174000
2000
我觉得单子上面你们看到的这些名次靠上的州都是一样的情况。
03:11
Meanwhile, California, New York, we can say, "Oh we're enlightened"
68
176000
4000
同时，还有加利福尼亚州和纽约州。我们可以说：”哦，我们真是很受启迪呀，“
03:15
but you know, certainly a much lower incidence of this
69
180000
2000
但是你们知道，肯定这个的认可度是相当低的
03:17
admitted, I suppose,
70
182000
2000
我猜想，
03:19
manifestation of racially-based voting.
71
184000
3000
那些表明了建立在人种基础上的投票。
03:22
Here is the same data on a map.
72
187000
2000
这里有一张地图上显示着同样的数据。
03:24
You kind of see the relationship between
73
189000
2000
你们大概可以看到
03:26
the redder states of where more people responded and said,
74
191000
2000
那些更红一些的州之间的关系，在那些地方更多的人回答说：
03:28
"Yes, Barack Obama's race was a problem for me."
75
193000
3000
”是的，奥巴马的种族之前对我来说是一个难题。“
03:31
You see, comparing the map to '96, you see an overlap here.
76
196000
3000
你们看，把这张地图与96年的相比，大家会看到这有一个重叠的地方。
03:34
This really seems to explain
77
199000
2000
这个似乎真的解释了
03:36
why Barack Obama did worse
78
201000
2000
为什么在美国的同一个地方，
03:38
in this one part of the country.
79
203000
2000
奥巴马的表现更糟糕。
03:40
So we have to ask why.
80
205000
2000
所以我们要问问为什么。
03:42
Is racism predictable in some way?
81
207000
2000
是不是种族歧视在某种程度上是可以预测的？
03:44
Is there something driving this?
82
209000
2000
是不是有什么东西导致了这样的结果？
03:46
Is it just about some weird stuff that goes on in Arkansas
83
211000
2000
是不是只是阿肯色州有一些我们不能理解的古怪的念头
03:48
that we don't understand, and Kentucky?
84
213000
2000
还有肯塔基州？
03:50
Or are there more systematic factors at work?
85
215000
2000
还是有更多系统性的因素在起作用？
03:52
And so we can look at a bunch of different variables.
86
217000
2000
所以让我们来看看这一群不同的可变因素。
03:54
These are things that economists and political scientists look at all the time --
87
219000
3000
这些东西都是经济学家和政治学家们常看的--
03:57
things like income, and religion, education.
88
222000
3000
像是收入，宗教和受教育程度。
04:00
Which of these seem to drive
89
225000
2000
这些里面哪些看起来更像是导致
04:02
this manifestation of racism
90
227000
2000
种族歧视的因素
04:04
in this big national experiment we had on November 4th?
91
229000
3000
在11月4日这样一个美国做出重大决定的日子里出现的呢？（大选）
04:07
And there are a couple of these that have
92
232000
2000
而其中的一些因素
04:09
strong predictive relationships,
93
234000
2000
预示着强烈的关联性--
04:11
one of which is education,
94
236000
3000
其中之一就是受教育程度。
04:14
where you see the states with the fewest years of schooling
95
239000
2000
你们看到那些平均每个成年人受教育年数最少的州
04:16
per adult are in red,
96
241000
2000
都是红色的，
04:18
and you see this part of the country, the kind of Appalachians region,
97
243000
3000
而你们看到美国的阿巴拉契亚山脉这个地区，
04:21
is less educated. It's just a fact.
98
246000
2000
受教育程度是很低的。这确实是个事实。
04:23
And you see the relationship there
99
248000
2000
然后你可以看到它们的联系
04:25
with the racially-based voting patterns.
100
250000
3000
就是都是建立在种族基础上的投票模式。
04:28
The other variable that's important is
101
253000
2000
另一个很重要的变数是
04:30
the type of neighborhood that you live in.
102
255000
3000
你生活的地方周围的邻居都是什么样的。
04:33
States that are more rural --
103
258000
2000
那些更乡村化一些的州，
04:35
even to some extent of the states like New Hampshire and Maine --
104
260000
2000
甚至一些像是新罕布什尔和缅因这样的州，
04:37
they exhibit a little bit of
105
262000
2000
他们也表现出了一点点
04:39
this racially-based voting against Barack Obama.
106
264000
3000
倾向于这种建立在种族基础上的投票而反对奥巴马。
04:42
So it's the combination of these two things: it's education
107
267000
2000
所以这两样东西是联合起来的。
04:44
and the type of neighbors that you have,
108
269000
2000
其实就是你的受教育程度和周围邻居的类型，
04:46
which we'll talk about more in a moment.
109
271000
2000
我们一会儿再具体的谈一谈。
04:48
And the thing about states like Arkansas and Tennessee
110
273000
2000
关于州的这个事，像是阿肯色和田纳西州
04:50
is that they're both very rural,
111
275000
2000
就是因为他们都是非常乡村化的州，
04:52
and they are educationally impoverished.
112
277000
4000
而且他们的教育也很落后。
04:56
So yes, racism is predictable.
113
281000
2000
所以种族偏见确实是可以预料到的。
04:58
These things, among maybe other variables,
114
283000
2000
这些因素，也许其他的可变因素也有涉及，
05:00
but these things seem to predict it.
115
285000
2000
但是看上去这些因素更有预见性。
05:02
We're going to drill down a little bit more now,
116
287000
2000
我们现在再深入的挖掘一下。
05:04
into something called the General Social Survey.
117
289000
2000
General Social Survey（社会调查）
05:06
This is conducted by the University of Chicago
118
291000
2000
是由芝加哥大学发起的，
05:08
every other year.
119
293000
2000
隔年会有一次。
05:10
And they ask a series of really interesting questions.
120
295000
2000
而且他们会问一系列非常有意思的问题。
05:12
In 2000 they had particularly interesting questions
121
297000
2000
在2000年他们的问题非常独特有趣
05:14
about racial attitudes.
122
299000
2000
是关于对于种族的看法的。
05:16
One simple question they asked is,
123
301000
2000
他们问了的一个很简单的问题就是，
05:18
"Does anyone of the opposite race live in your neighborhood?"
124
303000
4000
“你的邻居里有异族的吗？”
05:22
We can see in different types of communities that the results are quite different.
125
307000
3000
我们可以看到不同类型的群体结果也是相当不同的。
05:25
In cites, about 80 percent of people
126
310000
3000
在城市里，大约80%的人
05:28
have someone whom they consider a neighbor of another race,
127
313000
3000
认为周围的邻居有一些是其他种族的。
05:31
but in rural communities, only about 30 percent.
128
316000
3000
但是在乡村这个群体里，大约只有30%。
05:34
Probably because if you live on a farm, you might not have a lot of neighbors, period.
129
319000
3000
很有可能是因为如果你住在农场里，你周围就不会有太多的邻居，就是这样了。
05:37
But nevertheless, you're not having a lot of interaction with people
130
322000
3000
但是无论如何，你跟那些
05:40
who are unlike you.
131
325000
2000
异族的人都没有太多的互动。
05:42
So what we're going to do now is take the white people in the survey
132
327000
3000
所以我们现在要做的就是把那些白人都包括到调查中
05:45
and split them between those who have black neighbors --
133
330000
3000
然后再把他们分成周围的邻居里有黑人
05:48
or, really, some neighbor of another race --
134
333000
2000
或者是一些其他种族的人。
05:50
and people who have only white neighbors.
135
335000
3000
和周围的邻居里只有白人。
05:53
And we see in some variables
136
338000
2000
而我们看到的一些
05:55
in terms of political attitudes, not a lot of difference.
137
340000
2000
有关政治态度方面的可变因素其结果也没有太大的差异。
05:57
This was eight years ago, some people were more Republican back then.
138
342000
3000
这个是八年前的，那时的共和党人更多一些。
06:00
But you see Democrats versus Republican,
139
345000
2000
但是你们看民主党与共和党相比，
06:02
not a big difference based on who your neighbors are.
140
347000
3000
建立在你有什么样的邻居基础上的差异也不是很大。
06:05
And even some questions about race -- for example
141
350000
2000
而且甚至一些关于种族的问题，例如
06:07
affirmative action, which is kind of a political question,
142
352000
2000
那个积极区别对待政策，有点带有政治性的问题，
06:09
a policy question about race, if you will --
143
354000
2000
如果你愿意的话也可以把它看作是一个关于种族的政策性问题。
06:11
not much difference here.
144
356000
2000
在这也没有太大的差异。
06:13
Affirmative action is not very popular frankly, with white voters, period.
145
358000
3000
坦白的说积极区别对待政策在白人投票者中并不是很受欢迎，基本是这个样子。
06:16
But people with black neighbors and people with mono-racial neighborhoods
146
361000
3000
但是无论是周围有黑人邻居还是周围邻居种族都很单一的人
06:19
feel no differently about it really.
147
364000
3000
其实都不会感到异样。
06:22
But if you probe a bit deeper and get a bit more personal if you will,
148
367000
4000
然而如果再深入的探寻一下，如果你愿意的话可以再私人化一些，
06:26
"Do you favor a law banning interracial marriage?"
149
371000
2000
“你赞成禁止异族通婚这个法律吗？”
06:28
There is a big difference.
150
373000
2000
结果的差异非常大。
06:30
People who don't have neighbors of a different race
151
375000
2000
那些邻居中没有其他种族
06:32
are about twice as likely
152
377000
2000
而反对异族通婚的人
06:34
to oppose interracial marriage as people who do.
153
379000
3000
大约是那些邻居中有其他种族的人的二倍。
06:37
Just based on who lives in your immediate neighborhood around you.
154
382000
3000
这个其实就是建立在你的近邻的基础之上。
06:40
And likewise they asked, not in 2000, but in the same survey in 1996,
155
385000
4000
而且与此同时，还是在1996年而非2000年的那个同样的调查中，他们问道
06:44
"Would you not vote for a qualified black president?"
156
389000
4000
“你们是不是不会投票给一个合格的黑人总统？”
06:48
You see people without neighbors who are African-American who
157
393000
2000
你们会发现那些没有非裔美国邻居的人
06:50
were much more likely to say, "That would give me a problem."
158
395000
3000
更有可能会说：”那样会给我带来麻烦。“
06:53
So it's really not even about urban versus rural.
159
398000
2000
所以这个问题真的也不能说是城市对乡村的问题。
06:55
It's about who you live with.
160
400000
2000
其实就看你跟什么样的人住在一起。
06:57
Racism is predictable. And it's predicted by
161
402000
2000
种族歧视其实是可以预见的。它是可以通过
06:59
interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
162
404000
4000
互相影响或者周围缺少跟你种族不同的人从而预见到结果。
07:03
So if you want to address it,
163
408000
2000
所以如果想解决这个问题，
07:05
the goal is to facilitate interaction with people of other races.
164
410000
3000
咱们的目标应该就是促进不同种族之间的交流。
07:08
I have a couple of very obvious, I suppose,
165
413000
2000
我想我这里的几个非常显而易见的
07:10
ideas for maybe how to do that.
166
415000
3000
想法也许可以让咱们去做到那样。
07:13
I'm a big fan of cities.
167
418000
2000
我是个城市的狂热者。
07:15
Especially if we have cites that are diverse and sustainable,
168
420000
3000
尤其是对那些多样化而且比较平衡
07:18
and can support people of different ethnicities and different income groups.
169
423000
3000
可以支持不同的种族划分和不同的收入人群的城市。
07:21
I think cities facilitate more of the kind of networking,
170
426000
3000
我觉得那些城市它们可以在你以往的日常活动的基础之上给你带来更多的人际关系网，
07:24
the kind of casual interaction than you might have on a daily basis.
171
429000
3000
和一些比较随意的互动。
07:27
But also not everyone wants to live in a city, certainly not a city like New York.
172
432000
3000
但是当然了不是每一个人都想住在城市，而且肯定也不会像是纽约那样的城市。
07:30
So we can think more about things like street grids.
173
435000
3000
所以我们可以多想想像这样棋盘式街道布局之类的东西。
07:33
This is the neighborhood where I grew up in East Lansing, Michigan.
174
438000
2000
这是我长大的地方密歇根州的东兰辛市周围临近的情况。
07:35
It's a traditional Midwestern community, which means you have real grid.
175
440000
3000
这是一个传统的中西部社区，它代表着街道的布局都是整整齐齐的格子状的。
07:38
You have real neighborhoods and real trees, and real streets you can walk on.
176
443000
3000
你的邻居，周围的树木和你走的街道都是实实在在的。
07:41
And you interact a lot with your neighbors --
177
446000
3000
而且你会跟邻居有很多交流和互动，
07:44
people you like, people you might not know.
178
449000
2000
还有那些你喜欢的或者你也许不认识的人。
07:46
And as a result it's a very tolerant community,
179
451000
3000
所以结果这样的社区接受外来事物的能力非常高，
07:49
which is different, I think, than something like this,
180
454000
2000
起码我认为比像是
07:51
which is in Schaumburg, Illinois,
181
456000
2000
伊利诺斯州的绍姆堡这样的地方高很多。
07:53
where every little set of houses has their own cul-de-sac
182
458000
3000
在绍姆堡每一小片房子周围都会有死胡同
07:56
and drive-through Starbucks and stuff like that.
183
461000
2000
和类似于星巴克这种不用下车便可以得到服务的地方。
07:58
I think that actually this type of urban design,
184
463000
3000
我觉得其实像这种在70和80年代
08:01
which became more prevalent in the 1970s and 1980s --
185
466000
3000
就变的很普遍的市区内的设计形式，
08:04
I think there is a relationship between that and the country becoming
186
469000
3000
我认为其实跟它还是有一定关系的而且在
08:07
more conservative under Ronald Reagan.
187
472000
2000
罗纳德·里根的领导下，美国变得更加保守了。
08:09
But also here is another idea we have --
188
474000
3000
但是同时，这里还有另一个想法--
08:12
is an intercollegiate exchange program
189
477000
2000
那就是一个学院间的交换项目
08:14
where you have students going from New York abroad.
190
479000
3000
你可以吸取来自纽约的学生，
08:17
But frankly there are enough differences within the country now
191
482000
2000
但是老实说现在国内的差异已经够大的了
08:19
where maybe you can take a bunch of kids from NYU,
192
484000
3000
也许你可以带着一帮纽约大学的孩子
08:22
have them go study for a semester at the University of Arkansas,
193
487000
2000
去阿肯色大学学习一个学期，
08:24
and vice versa. Do it at the high school level.
194
489000
3000
而反之亦然。我们在高中这个阶段就要去开展它。
08:27
Literally there are people who might be in school in Arkansas or Tennessee
195
492000
3000
其实也许那些在阿肯色或田纳西州上学的人
08:30
and might never interact in a positive affirmative way
196
495000
3000
永远都不会跟
08:33
with someone from another part of the country, or of another racial group.
197
498000
4000
那些来自国内其他地区或其他种族群体的人有非常积极正面的交流。
08:37
I think part of the education variable we talked about before
198
502000
3000
我觉得我们之前谈过的在教育这个可变因素中一部分
08:40
is the networking experience you get when you go to college
199
505000
2000
就是当你去上大学的时候你所能得到的人际交往的经验
08:42
where you do get a mix of people that you might not interact with otherwise.
200
507000
4000
你可能确实会遇到那些你并不怎么会去交流的其他种族的人
08:46
But the point is, this is all good news,
201
511000
2000
但是关键是，这些其实都是很有益处的。
08:48
because when something is predictable,
202
513000
3000
因为当一些东西是可以预测的时候，
08:51
it is what I call designable.
203
516000
2000
那么我就会说它是可计划性的。
08:53
You can start thinking about solutions to solving that problem,
204
518000
2000
你就可以开始去想解决问题的方法。
08:55
even if the problem is pernicious and as intractable as racism.
205
520000
3000
即使这个问题带有潜移默化的伤害，即使它像种族问题一样难处理。
08:58
If we understand the root causes of the behavior
206
523000
2000
如果我们理解导致这一行为的根本原因
09:00
and where it manifests itself and where it doesn't,
207
525000
2000
和那些可以揭示或不可以揭示它本身的因素，
09:02
we can start to design solutions to it.
208
527000
3000
那么我们就可以设计解决方案了。
09:05
So that's all I have to say. Thank you very much.
209
530000
2000
那么这些就是我所要说的了。非常感谢。
09:07
(Applause)
210
532000
1000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Nate Silver - StatisticianMath whiz and baseball fan Nate Silver was mainly known for predicting outcomes in fantasy ballgames -- until his technique hit a home run calling the outcome of the 2008 election primaries.
Why you should listen
In the 2008 election season's closing weeks, throngs of wonks and laypeople alike were glued to FiveThirtyEight.com, a habitforming political blog. Red and blue bar charts crowded the scrollbars as the pulse of exit polls crept along the site's latest projections. It seemed almost miraculous: In a year of acute turns of favor, the site's owner and mouthpiece, Nate Silver (who blogged anonymously as "Poblano" until outing himself on May 30, 2008, as a baseball numberhead), managed to predict the winners of every U.S. Senate contest -- and the general Presidential election.
Besides being just-damn-fascinating, Silver's analysis is a decidedly contrarian gauntlet thrown before an unrepentant, spectacle-driven media. The up-and-coming pundit, who cut his teeth forecasting the performance of Major League Baseball players, has a fairly direct explanation of why most projections fail: "Polls are cherry-picked based on their brand name or shock value rather than their track record of accuracy."
Silver's considerable smarts are already helping local campaigns build constituencies and strategize. He is the author of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't.
Nate Silver | Speaker | TED.com