TED2010
Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil
Richard Sears: Planovi za nestanak nafte
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Dok se pažnja svijeta usmjerava na nedostatke iskorištavanja nafte, predstavljamo vam govor Richarda Searsa iz veljače 2010. Sears, stručnjak za razvoj novih izvora energije govori o neizbježnom i nužnom odmicanju od nafte. Prema ... čemu?
Richard Sears - Geophysicist
Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell. Full bio
Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,
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Sljedećih nekoliko minuta razgovarat ćemo o energiji.
00:18
and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.
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Govor će biti ponešto raznovrstan.
00:21
I'll try to spin a story about energy,
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Ispričat ću priču o energiji,
00:23
and oil's a convenient starting place.
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a nafta je prikladna kao početak.
00:25
The talk will be broadly about energy,
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Govor će biti o energiji u širem smislu,
00:27
but oil's a good place to start.
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ali dobro je početi s naftom.
00:29
And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.
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Jedan od razloga za to je što je ona nešto izuzetno.
00:32
You take about eight or so carbon atoms,
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Uzmete osam atoma ugljika,
00:34
about 20 hydrogen atoms,
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oko 20 vodikovih atoma,
00:36
you put them together in exactly the right way
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spojite ih na pravi način
00:38
and you get this marvelous liquid:
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i dobijete tu čudesnu tekućinu
00:40
very energy-dense and very easy to refine
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velike energetske gustoće koju je lako preraditi
00:42
into a number of very useful products and fuels.
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u brojne korisne proizvode i goriva.
00:45
It's great stuff.
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Nafta je sjajna.
00:47
Now, as far as it goes,
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Ima mnogo nafte
00:49
there's a lot of oil out there in the world.
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na svijetu.
00:51
Here's my little pocket map
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Evo moje džepne karte
00:53
of where it's all located.
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koja prikazuje sve lokacije.
00:55
A bigger one for you to look at.
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Veću gledate vi.
00:57
But this is it, this is the oil in the world.
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Ali to je to. Ovo je svjetska nafta.
00:59
Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.
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Geolozi imaju prilično dobru ideju gdje su nalazišta nafte.
01:01
This is about 100 trillion gallons
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Ima oko 100 bilijuna galona
01:04
of crude oil
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sirove nafte
01:06
still to be developed and produced in the world today.
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koju još nismo obradili i proizveli u svijetu.
01:09
Now, that's just one story about oil,
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To je samo jedna priča o nafti
01:11
and we could end it there and say,
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i mogli bismo je tu završiti i reći,
01:13
"Well, oil's going to last forever
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"Pa, nafta će trajati zauvijek
01:15
because, well, there's just a lot of it."
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jer je jednostavno ima mnogo."
01:17
But there's actually more to the story than that.
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Ali priča tu ne završava.
01:19
Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,
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I, usput, ako mislite da ste jako daleko od nafte,
01:22
1000 meters below where you're all sitting
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1000 metara dublje od mjesta gdje sjedite
01:25
is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.
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nalazi se jedno od najvećih naftnih polja na svijetu.
01:28
Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.
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Obratite mi se u vezi toga. Reći ću vam detalje ako vas zanima.
01:31
So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.
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Dakle, to je jedna priča o nafti. Jednostavno je ima puno.
01:34
But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?
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Ali što je s naftom? Koje je njeno mjesto u energetskom sustavu?
01:39
Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,
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Evo malog prikaza 150 godina nafte.
01:42
and it's been a dominant part of our energy system
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Ona je dominantan element našeg energetskog sustava
01:44
for most of those 150 years.
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tijekom većeg dijela tih 150 godina.
01:47
Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:
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Ima još jedna mala tajna koju ću vam reći.
01:51
For the last 25 years,
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U posljednjih 25 godina,
01:53
oil has been playing less and less of a role
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nafta ima sve manju i manju ulogu
01:56
in global energy systems.
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u svjetskom energetskom sustavu.
01:58
There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,
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Imali smo naftni vrhunac 1985. godine,
02:01
when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.
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kad je na naftu otpadalo 50 posto svjetske ponude energije.
02:03
Now, it's about 35 percent.
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Danas to iznosi oko 35 posto.
02:05
It's been declining
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Smanjuje se
02:07
and I believe it will continue to decline.
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i vjerujem da će se nastaviti smanjivati.
02:09
Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007
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Potrošnja benzina je u SAD - u vrhunac imala 2007.
02:11
and is declining.
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i opada.
02:13
So oil is playing a less significant role
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Znači, uloga nafte je sve manja
02:16
every year.
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iz godine u godinu.
02:18
And so, 25 years ago,
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Dakle, prije 25 godina
02:20
there was a peak oil;
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imali smo vrhunac korištenja nafte
02:22
just like, in the 1920s,
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kao što smo u 1920-tima,
02:24
there was a peak coal;
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imali vrhunac korištenja ugljena,
02:26
and a hundred years before that,
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a stotinu godina prije toga
02:28
there was a peak wood.
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vrhunac korištenja drveta.
02:30
This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.
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Ovo je vrlo važna slika evolucije energetskih sustava.
02:33
And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?
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A što kompenzira to smanjenje u posljednjih nekoliko desetljeća?
02:36
Well, a lot of natural gas
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Pa, puno zemnog plina
02:38
and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.
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i nešto nuklearne energije, za početak.
02:41
And what goes on in the future?
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A što će biti u budućnosti?
02:43
Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades
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Vjerujem da je za nekoliko desetljeća
02:45
is peak gas,
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pred nama vrhunac korištenja plina,
02:48
and beyond that,
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a nakon toga
02:50
peak renewables.
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vrhunac korištenja obnovljivih izvora.
02:52
Now, I'll tell you another little, very important
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Sada ću vam ispričati još jednu vrlo važnu
02:54
story about this picture.
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priču u vezi te slike.
02:56
Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total
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Ne pokušavam se pretvarati da se ukupno korištenje energije
02:58
isn't increasing, it is --
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smanjuje, jer se povećava.
03:00
that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,
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To je drugi dio priče. Javite mi se.
03:02
we'll fill in some of the details --
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Dat ćemo vam detalje.
03:04
but there's a very important message here:
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No, poruka je vrlo važna.
03:06
This is 200 years of history,
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Evo 200 godina povijesti.
03:08
and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing
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Tijekom 200 godina sustavno smo smanjivali udio ugljika
03:11
our energy system.
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u našem energetskom sustavu.
03:13
Energy systems of the world
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Energetski sustavi u svijetu
03:15
becoming progressively -- year on year,
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progresivno, iz godine u godinu,
03:17
decade on decade, century on century --
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iz desetljeća u desetljeće, iz stoljeća u stoljeće,
03:19
becoming less carbon intense.
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postaju manje ugljično-intenzivni.
03:22
And that continues into the future
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I to će se nastaviti u budućnosti
03:24
with the renewables that we're developing today,
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s obnovljivim izvorima koje danas razvijamo,
03:26
reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy
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a čija će upotreba iznositi i do 30 posto primarne energije
03:28
by mid century.
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do sredine stoljeća.
03:30
Now that might be the end of the story --
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I to bi mogao biti kraj priče --
03:32
Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --
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Odlično, samo sve zamijenimo s konvencionalnim obnovljivim izvorima --
03:34
but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.
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no, mislim da ni tu nije kraj.
03:36
And to tell the next part of the story --
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Pričamo sljedeći dio priče --
03:38
and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.
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gledamo daleko unaprijed, recimo u godinu 2100. i kasnije.
03:41
What is the future
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Kakva je budućnost
03:43
of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?
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istinski održive energije bez ugljika?
03:45
Well, we have to take a little excursion,
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Moramo poći na kratak izlet.
03:47
and we'll start in central Texas.
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Počet ćemo u središnjem Texasu.
03:49
Here's a piece of limestone.
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Evo komada vapnenca.
03:51
I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.
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Pronašao sam ga u blizini Marble Fallsa u Texasu.
03:53
It's about 400 million years old.
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Star je oko 400 milijuna godina.
03:55
And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.
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Običan vapnenac, nema ničeg posebnog u njemu.
03:58
Now, here's a piece of chalk.
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A ovo je kreda.
04:00
I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.
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Ovo sam dobio na sveučilištu M.I.T. Nešto je mlađa.
04:03
And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.
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I različita je od vapnenca. Vidite to.
04:05
You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,
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Ne biste od ovoga gradili zgrade,
04:07
and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.
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a ne biste držali predavanje i pokušali na ploči pisati s ovim.
04:10
Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.
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Da, jako različito. Ne, nije različito.
04:12
It's not different, it's the same stuff:
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Nije različito. To je ista stvar,
04:14
calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.
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kalcij karbonat, kalcij karbonat.
04:17
What's different is how the molecules are put together.
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Ono što je drugačije je način na koji su molekule povezane.
04:20
Now, if you think that's kind of neat,
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Ako mislite da je to zanimljivo,
04:23
the story gets really neat right now.
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sada priča postaje zaista zanimljiva.
04:26
Off the coast of California comes this:
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Ovo se nalazi blizu kalifornijske obale.
04:29
It's an abalone shell.
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Ovo je kućica morskog puža abalona.
04:31
Now, millions of abalone every year
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Milijuni abalona svake godine
04:33
make this shell.
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naprave ovakvu školjku.
04:35
Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,
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O, usput, ako niste već pogodili,
04:37
it's calcium carbonate.
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ovo je kalcij karbonat.
04:39
It's the same stuff as this
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To je ista tvar kao ovo
04:41
and the same stuff as this.
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i kao ovo.
04:43
But it's not the same stuff; it's different.
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Ali nije isto; drugačije je.
04:45
It's thousands of times,
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Tisućama je puta,
04:47
maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.
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možda 3.000 puta čvršća od ovoga.
04:50
And why? Because the lowly abalone
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Zašto? Zato što je mali abalon
04:53
is able to lay down
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u stanju polagati
04:55
the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,
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kristale kalcij karbonata u slojevima,
04:57
making this beautiful, iridescent
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i proizvesti ovu prelijepu, svjetlucavu
04:59
mother of pearl.
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majku bisera.
05:01
Very specialized material
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Vrlo specijaliziran materijal
05:03
that the abalone self-assembles,
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koji abalon sam sastavlja,
05:05
millions of abalone,
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milijuni abalona,
05:07
all the time, every day, every year.
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neprekidno, svakoga dana, svake godine.
05:09
This is pretty incredible stuff.
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To je nevjerojatno.
05:11
All the same, what's different?
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Pa ipak, u čemu je razlika?
05:13
How the molecules are put together.
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U tome kako su molekule povezane.
05:15
Now, what does this have to do with energy?
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A kakve to veze ima s energijom?
05:18
Here's a piece of coal.
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Evo komada ugljena.
05:20
And I'll suggest that this coal
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Ovaj ugljen
05:22
is about as exciting
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je otprilike onoliko uzbudljiv
05:24
as this chalk.
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koliko i ova kreda.
05:27
Now, whether we're talking about fuels
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Govorili mi o gorivu,
05:29
or energy carriers,
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ili prijenosnicima energije,
05:31
or perhaps novel materials for batteries
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ili o novim materijalima za baterije
05:33
or fuel cells,
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ili pogonskim stanicama,
05:35
nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet
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priroda još nije stvorila te savršene materijale,
05:38
because nature didn't need to.
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jer nije morala.
05:40
Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,
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Nije morala budući da, za razliku od abalon školjke,
05:43
the survival of a species didn't depend
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opstanak vrsta nije ovisio
05:46
on building those materials,
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o tim materijalima
05:48
until maybe now when it might just matter.
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sve do sada, kad bi moglo biti važno.
05:52
So, when we think about the future of energy,
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Pa kad razmišljamo o budućnosti energije,
05:55
imagine
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zamislite
05:57
what would it be like
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kako bi to bilo
05:59
if instead of this,
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kad bismo, umjesto ovoga,
06:01
we could build the energy equivalent of this
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mogli stvoriti energetski ekvivalent ovoga,
06:05
just by rearranging the molecules differently.
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samo preslagivanjem molekula.
06:09
And so that is my story.
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I to je moja priča.
06:11
The oil will never run out.
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Nafte nikada neće ponestati.
06:13
It's not because we have a lot of it.
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Ne zato što je imamo mnogo.
06:15
It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.
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Ne zato što ćemo podići milijarde vjetrenjača.
06:18
It's because, well,
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Već zato što su ljudi,
06:21
thousands of years ago,
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prije više tisuća godina,
06:23
people invented ideas --
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izumili ideje,
06:25
they had ideas, innovations, technology --
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imali su ideje, inovacije, tehnologiju.
06:27
and the Stone Age ended,
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Kameno doba nije završilo
06:30
not because we ran out of stones.
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zato što je ponestalo kamenja.
06:32
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:34
It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology
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Ideje, inovacije, tehnologija
06:37
that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.
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okončat će eru nafte puno prije nego nam ponestane nafte.
06:40
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam lijepa.
06:42
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Richard Sears - GeophysicistRichard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell.
Why you should listen
Richard Sears is a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a geophysicist and executive at Shell. His brief in both places: Think about the world post-oil. It's a corporate-academic crossover that aims to enrich the academic conversation with real-world experience from people like Sears, who is an expert in looking for new energy resources -- both hydrocarbon and the world of options for what's next.
At MIT, Sears is affiliated with the MIT Energy Initiative and the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS). He's also an official "gamechanger" at LeadingEnergyNow.
Richard Sears | Speaker | TED.com