TED2010
Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil
Ričard Sirs (Richard Sears): Planiranje za nestanak nafte
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Kako se pažnja sveta fokusira na rizike istraživanja nafte, predstavljamo vam govor Ričarda Sirsa s početka februara 2010. Sirs, koji je stručnjak za razvoj novih izvora energije, priča o našem neminovnom i neophodnom odvajanju od nafte. Prema... čemu?
Richard Sears - Geophysicist
Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell. Full bio
Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,
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Sledećih nekoliko minuta
pričaćemo o energiji
pričaćemo o energiji
00:18
and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.
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i govor će biti pomalo šarolik.
00:21
I'll try to spin a story about energy,
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Pokušaću da okrenem priču o energiji
00:23
and oil's a convenient starting place.
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i nafta zvuči kao zgodan početak.
00:25
The talk will be broadly about energy,
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Govor će biti o energiji uopšteno,
00:27
but oil's a good place to start.
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ali nafta je dobar početak.
00:29
And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.
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Jedan od razloga je to
što je nafta neverovatna.
što je nafta neverovatna.
00:32
You take about eight or so carbon atoms,
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Uzmete oko 8 atoma ugljenika,
00:34
about 20 hydrogen atoms,
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oko 20 atoma vodonika,
00:36
you put them together in exactly the right way
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sastavite ih na pravi način
00:38
and you get this marvelous liquid:
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i dobićete ovu veličanstvenu tečnost:
00:40
very energy-dense and very easy to refine
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nabijenu energijom i veoma laku za rafinisanje
00:42
into a number of very useful products and fuels.
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u veliki broj korisnih proizvoda i goriva.
00:45
It's great stuff.
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Nafta je sjajna stvar.
00:47
Now, as far as it goes,
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Kako stvari stoje,
00:49
there's a lot of oil out there in the world.
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u svetu postoji dosta nafte.
00:51
Here's my little pocket map
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Ovde je moja mala džepna mapa
00:53
of where it's all located.
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sa lokacijama nafte.
00:55
A bigger one for you to look at.
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Evo jedne veće za vas.
00:57
But this is it, this is the oil in the world.
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Ali to je to, ovo je sva nafta u svetu.
00:59
Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.
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Geolozi prilično dobro znaju
gde se nafta nalazi.
gde se nafta nalazi.
01:01
This is about 100 trillion gallons
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Ovo je oko 100 triliona galona
01:04
of crude oil
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sirove nafte
01:06
still to be developed and produced in the world today.
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koja tek treba da se razvije
i proizvede u svetu danas.
i proizvede u svetu danas.
01:09
Now, that's just one story about oil,
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Ovo je samo jedna priča o nafti,
01:11
and we could end it there and say,
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i mogli bismo ovde završiti i reći:
01:13
"Well, oil's going to last forever
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"Pa, nafta će zauvek da traje
01:15
because, well, there's just a lot of it."
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jer jednostavno je ima puno."
01:17
But there's actually more to the story than that.
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Ali postoji puno više toga
u vezi sa ovom pričom.
u vezi sa ovom pričom.
01:19
Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,
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Ako mislite da ste veoma daleko
od ove nafte,
od ove nafte,
01:22
1000 meters below where you're all sitting
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1 000 metara ispod vaših sedišta
01:25
is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.
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je jedno od najvećih polja nafte na svetu.
01:28
Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.
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Ako želite da saznate više
dođite da popričamo o tome.
dođite da popričamo o tome.
01:31
So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.
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Dakle to je jedna od priča o nafti;
jednostavno je ima puno.
jednostavno je ima puno.
01:34
But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?
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Ali šta je sa naftom?
Gde je u energetskom sistemu?
Gde je u energetskom sistemu?
01:39
Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,
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Evo jednog grafika o 150 godina nafte
01:42
and it's been a dominant part of our energy system
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i ona je dominatna u
našem energetskom sistemu
našem energetskom sistemu
01:44
for most of those 150 years.
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većinom tih 150 godina.
01:47
Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:
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A evo još jedne tajne koju ću vam reći:
01:51
For the last 25 years,
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poslednjih 25 godina,
01:53
oil has been playing less and less of a role
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nafta igra sve manju ulogu
01:56
in global energy systems.
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u globalnim energetskim sistemima.
01:58
There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,
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Nafta je doživela jedan vrhunac u 1985.,
02:01
when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.
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kada je činila 50% globalnih zaliha energije.
02:03
Now, it's about 35 percent.
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Trenutno čini oko 35%.
02:05
It's been declining
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Ovaj procenat je pao
02:07
and I believe it will continue to decline.
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i verujem da će nastaviti da pada.
02:09
Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007
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Potrošnja benzina u SAD je verovatno
dostigla vrhunac u 2007.
dostigla vrhunac u 2007.
02:11
and is declining.
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i od tada pada.
02:13
So oil is playing a less significant role
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Tako da nafta svake godine
02:16
every year.
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ima sve manju ulogu.
02:18
And so, 25 years ago,
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Pre 25 godina,
02:20
there was a peak oil;
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nafta je bila na vrhuncu;
02:22
just like, in the 1920s,
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baš kao što je 1920-ih,
02:24
there was a peak coal;
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ugalj bio na vrhuncu;
02:26
and a hundred years before that,
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i 100 godina pre toga,
02:28
there was a peak wood.
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drvo je bilo na vrhuncu.
02:30
This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.
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Ovo je veoma važna slika evolucije
energetskih sistema.
energetskih sistema.
02:33
And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?
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A šta je napredovalo poslednjih par decenija?
02:36
Well, a lot of natural gas
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Pa, dosta prirodnog gasa
02:38
and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.
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i pomalo nuklearne energije, za početak.
02:41
And what goes on in the future?
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A šta će biti u budućnosti?
02:43
Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades
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Pa, mislim da će u sledećih nekoliko decenija
02:45
is peak gas,
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na vrhuncu biti gas,
02:48
and beyond that,
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a posle toga,
02:50
peak renewables.
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obnovljiva energija.
02:52
Now, I'll tell you another little, very important
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Reći ću vam još nešto veoma važno
02:54
story about this picture.
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u vezi sa ovom slikom.
02:56
Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total
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Neću da se pretvaram
da ukupna potrošnja energije
da ukupna potrošnja energije
02:58
isn't increasing, it is --
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ne raste, ona zaista raste -
03:00
that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,
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to je još jedan deo priče.
Ako želite više detalja,
Ako želite više detalja,
03:02
we'll fill in some of the details --
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obratite mi se -
03:04
but there's a very important message here:
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ali tu je veoma važna poruka:
03:06
This is 200 years of history,
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ovo je 200 godina istorije,
03:08
and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing
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i za 200 godina smo sistematski
uklanjali ugljenik
uklanjali ugljenik
03:11
our energy system.
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iz našeg energetskog sistema.
03:13
Energy systems of the world
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Energetski sistemi sveta
03:15
becoming progressively -- year on year,
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su postepeno - godinu za godinom,
03:17
decade on decade, century on century --
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decenijom za decenijom, vek za vekom -
03:19
becoming less carbon intense.
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postajali manje fokusirani na ugljenik.
03:22
And that continues into the future
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I to će se nastaviti i u budućnosti
03:24
with the renewables that we're developing today,
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sa obnovljivim energijama
koje sada razvijamo,
koje sada razvijamo,
03:26
reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy
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i koje će dostići možda 30% primarne energije
03:28
by mid century.
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do sredine veka.
03:30
Now that might be the end of the story --
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I ovo može biti kraj priče -
03:32
Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --
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okej, zamenićemo sve sa
konvencionalnom obnovljivom energijom -
konvencionalnom obnovljivom energijom -
03:34
but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.
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ali mislim da u stvari ima nešto više
u vezi sa ovom pričom.
u vezi sa ovom pričom.
03:36
And to tell the next part of the story --
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Sledeći deo priče je -
03:38
and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.
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ovde gledamo od 2100. godina i dalje.
03:41
What is the future
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Šta je budućnost
03:43
of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?
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zaista održive energije bez ugljenika?
03:45
Well, we have to take a little excursion,
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Moramo krenuti na malo putovanje,
03:47
and we'll start in central Texas.
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i krenućemo iz srca Teksasa.
03:49
Here's a piece of limestone.
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Ovo je komad krečnjaka.
03:51
I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.
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Pokupio sam ga kod Marbl Folsa u Teksasu.
03:53
It's about 400 million years old.
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Star je oko 400 miliona godina.
03:55
And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.
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To je samo krečnjak, ništa posebno.
03:58
Now, here's a piece of chalk.
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A ovde je komad krede.
04:00
I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.
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Ovo sam uzeo na MIT univerzitetu.
Malo je mlađa od krečnjaka.
Malo je mlađa od krečnjaka.
04:03
And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.
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Drugačija od njega,
to možete da vidite.
to možete da vidite.
04:05
You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,
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Ne biste napravili zgradu od ovoga,
04:07
and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.
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i ne biste pokušali da predajete
i pišete na tabli s ovim.
i pišete na tabli s ovim.
04:10
Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.
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Da, zaista su drugačiji - ne, nisu.
04:12
It's not different, it's the same stuff:
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Ne, nisu drugačiji, u pitanju je ista stvar:
04:14
calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.
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kalcijum karbonat i kalcijum karbonat.
04:17
What's different is how the molecules are put together.
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Razlika je u rasporedu molekula.
04:20
Now, if you think that's kind of neat,
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Ako mislite da je to super,
04:23
the story gets really neat right now.
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ovo što sledi je stvarno super.
04:26
Off the coast of California comes this:
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Sa obale Kalifornije stiže ovo:
04:29
It's an abalone shell.
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to je sedefasta školjka.
04:31
Now, millions of abalone every year
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Milioni školjki svake godine
04:33
make this shell.
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proizvode ovu ljušturu.
04:35
Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,
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I da, ako već niste pogodili,
04:37
it's calcium carbonate.
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napravljena je od kalcijum karbonata.
04:39
It's the same stuff as this
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To je ista stvar kao i ovo
04:41
and the same stuff as this.
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i ista stvar kao ovo.
04:43
But it's not the same stuff; it's different.
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Ali nije ista; drugačija je.
04:45
It's thousands of times,
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Jača je 1 000,
04:47
maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.
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možda 3 000 puta od ovoga.
04:50
And why? Because the lowly abalone
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A zašto? Zato što male školjke
04:53
is able to lay down
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mogu da rasporede
04:55
the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,
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kristale kalcijum karbonata u slojevima,
04:57
making this beautiful, iridescent
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i naprave ovaj predivni sedef
04:59
mother of pearl.
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koji se preliva u duginim bojama.
05:01
Very specialized material
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To je veoma specijalizovan materijal
05:03
that the abalone self-assembles,
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koji školjke same prave,
05:05
millions of abalone,
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milioni školjki,
05:07
all the time, every day, every year.
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non-stop, svakog dana, svake godine.
05:09
This is pretty incredible stuff.
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Ovo je zaista neverovatno.
05:11
All the same, what's different?
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Sve je isto, a šta je drugačije?
05:13
How the molecules are put together.
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Način na koji su spojeni molekuli.
05:15
Now, what does this have to do with energy?
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Kakve ovo veze ima sa energijom?
05:18
Here's a piece of coal.
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Ovo je komad uglja.
05:20
And I'll suggest that this coal
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I tvrdim da je ovaj ugalj
05:22
is about as exciting
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jednako uzbudljiv
05:24
as this chalk.
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kao ova kreda.
05:27
Now, whether we're talking about fuels
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Bez obzira da li pričamo o gorivu
05:29
or energy carriers,
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ili prenosnicima energije
05:31
or perhaps novel materials for batteries
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ili novim materijalima za baterije
05:33
or fuel cells,
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ili ćelijama goriva,
05:35
nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet
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priroda još uvek nije napravila
te savršene materijale
te savršene materijale
05:38
because nature didn't need to.
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jer joj nije potrebno.
05:40
Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,
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Prirodi nije potrebno jer,
za razliku od školjki,
za razliku od školjki,
05:43
the survival of a species didn't depend
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opstanak jedne vrste
05:46
on building those materials,
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nije zavisio od pravljenja tih materijala,
05:48
until maybe now when it might just matter.
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sve do sada kada je to možda bitno.
05:52
So, when we think about the future of energy,
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Kada razmišljamo o budućnosti energije
05:55
imagine
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zamislite
05:57
what would it be like
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kako bi bilo
05:59
if instead of this,
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kada bi umesto ovoga,
06:01
we could build the energy equivalent of this
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mogli da napravimo energetski ekvivalent ovoga
06:05
just by rearranging the molecules differently.
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običnom preraspodelom molekula.
06:09
And so that is my story.
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I to je moja priča.
06:11
The oil will never run out.
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Nafte neće nikad nestati.
06:13
It's not because we have a lot of it.
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Ne zato što je imamo puno.
06:15
It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.
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Ne zato što ćemo napraviti
gazilion vetrenjača.
gazilion vetrenjača.
06:18
It's because, well,
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To je zato što
06:21
thousands of years ago,
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hiljadama godina ranije
06:23
people invented ideas --
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ljudi su smislili ideje -
06:25
they had ideas, innovations, technology --
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imali su ideje, inovaciju, tehnologiju -
06:27
and the Stone Age ended,
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i kameno doba se završilo,
06:30
not because we ran out of stones.
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ne zato što nam je nestalo kamenja.
06:32
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:34
It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology
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Ideje, inovacija i tehnologija
06:37
that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.
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su ti koji će završiti doba nafte,
mnogo pre nego što nafte nestane.
mnogo pre nego što nafte nestane.
06:40
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
06:42
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Richard Sears - GeophysicistRichard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell.
Why you should listen
Richard Sears is a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a geophysicist and executive at Shell. His brief in both places: Think about the world post-oil. It's a corporate-academic crossover that aims to enrich the academic conversation with real-world experience from people like Sears, who is an expert in looking for new energy resources -- both hydrocarbon and the world of options for what's next.
At MIT, Sears is affiliated with the MIT Energy Initiative and the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS). He's also an official "gamechanger" at LeadingEnergyNow.
Richard Sears | Speaker | TED.com