TED2010
Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil
Richard Sears: 準備終結石油時代
Filmed:
Readability: 3.6
685,133 views
當全世界都聚焦於石油危機時，我們為您呈現Richard Sear在2010年二月所發表的演說，他是開發新能源的專家，他認為我們必定要減少對石油的依賴，轉而向...發展？
Richard Sears - Geophysicist
Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell. Full bio
Richard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
For the next few minutes we're going to talk about energy,
0
1000
2000
接下來的幾分鐘，我們來談談能源。
00:18
and it's going to be a bit of a varied talk.
1
3000
3000
這是一個不太一樣的演說，
00:21
I'll try to spin a story about energy,
2
6000
2000
我會告訴你們一些有關能源的事，
00:23
and oil's a convenient starting place.
3
8000
2000
就從石油開始好了。
00:25
The talk will be broadly about energy,
4
10000
2000
我的演說涵蓋了能源的多個面向，
00:27
but oil's a good place to start.
5
12000
2000
但從石油開始講起是個不錯的選擇。
00:29
And one of the reasons is this is remarkable stuff.
6
14000
3000
其中一個原因是，這是很了不起的東西。
00:32
You take about eight or so carbon atoms,
7
17000
2000
你拿八個碳原子，
00:34
about 20 hydrogen atoms,
8
19000
2000
加上二十個氫原子，
00:36
you put them together in exactly the right way
9
21000
2000
用正確的方式組合，
00:38
and you get this marvelous liquid:
10
23000
2000
就可以得到這瓶神奇的液體。
00:40
very energy-dense and very easy to refine
11
25000
2000
很有用的能源，
00:42
into a number of very useful products and fuels.
12
27000
3000
很容易就可以從中提煉出許多有用的產品與燃料，
00:45
It's great stuff.
13
30000
2000
真的很棒。
00:47
Now, as far as it goes,
14
32000
2000
現在，就我們所知，
00:49
there's a lot of oil out there in the world.
15
34000
2000
世界上還有許多石油的存量。
00:51
Here's my little pocket map
16
36000
2000
這是我的石油小地圖，
00:53
of where it's all located.
17
38000
2000
上面標示了所有的石油蘊藏地點。
00:55
A bigger one for you to look at.
18
40000
2000
你們可以看大一點的地圖，
00:57
But this is it, this is the oil in the world.
19
42000
2000
就是這樣。這些是世界上所有的石油。
00:59
Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is.
20
44000
2000
地質學家們都知道石油蘊藏的地點，
01:01
This is about 100 trillion gallons
21
46000
3000
世界上大約還有一兆加侖
01:04
of crude oil
22
49000
2000
的原油，
01:06
still to be developed and produced in the world today.
23
51000
3000
等待我們去開採及提煉。
01:09
Now, that's just one story about oil,
24
54000
2000
這只是關於石油的一部分事實，
01:11
and we could end it there and say,
25
56000
2000
我們大可以先談到這裡，然後說
01:13
"Well, oil's going to last forever
26
58000
2000
「石油的供給量不成問題嘛，
01:15
because, well, there's just a lot of it."
27
60000
2000
還有這麼多...」
01:17
But there's actually more to the story than that.
28
62000
2000
但事實不只如此。
01:19
Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil,
29
64000
3000
對了，如果你覺得你離油田很遠，
01:22
1000 meters below where you're all sitting
30
67000
3000
各位現在座位下方一千公尺的地方，
01:25
is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world.
31
70000
3000
就是世界上石油蘊藏量最多的地點之一。
01:28
Come talk to me about it, I'll fill in some of the details if you want.
32
73000
3000
如果你想深入瞭解更多細節，可以私下再找我討論。
01:31
So, that's one of the stories of oil; there's just a lot of it.
33
76000
3000
這是關於石油的一部分事實，石油存量其實還很多。
01:34
But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system?
34
79000
3000
石油到底有什麼用？石油在能源體系裡扮演什麼角色？
01:39
Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil,
35
84000
3000
這是150年來石油在能源體系的比重，
01:42
and it's been a dominant part of our energy system
36
87000
2000
在這150年來，
01:44
for most of those 150 years.
37
89000
3000
石油一直扮演很吃重的角色。
01:47
Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about:
38
92000
3000
現在，我要告訴各位一個小祕密，
01:51
For the last 25 years,
39
96000
2000
在過去的25年裡，
01:53
oil has been playing less and less of a role
40
98000
3000
石油在全球能源體系裡所佔的比重
01:56
in global energy systems.
41
101000
2000
正在持續下降。
01:58
There was one kind of peak oil in 1985,
42
103000
3000
在1985年石油的比重達到高峰，
02:01
when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply.
43
106000
2000
那時的比重高達全球能源的百分之50。
02:03
Now, it's about 35 percent.
44
108000
2000
現在大約只有百分之35，
02:05
It's been declining
45
110000
2000
比以前下降了，
02:07
and I believe it will continue to decline.
46
112000
2000
我相信還會持續下降。
02:09
Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007
47
114000
2000
在美國，汽油的比重在2007年達到高峰，
02:11
and is declining.
48
116000
2000
現在也開始下降。
02:13
So oil is playing a less significant role
49
118000
3000
石油的重要性
02:16
every year.
50
121000
2000
正在逐年下降，
02:18
And so, 25 years ago,
51
123000
2000
在25年以前，
02:20
there was a peak oil;
52
125000
2000
石油的比重達到高峰，
02:22
just like, in the 1920s,
53
127000
2000
就像在1920年代，
02:24
there was a peak coal;
54
129000
2000
煤炭的比重達到高峰，
02:26
and a hundred years before that,
55
131000
2000
而在100年之前，
02:28
there was a peak wood.
56
133000
2000
木柴的比重也曾達到高峰。
02:30
This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems.
57
135000
3000
這張圖清楚地刻劃出能源系統演進的過程。
02:33
And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades?
58
138000
3000
在過去數十年裡，究竟是什麼取代了石油呢？
02:36
Well, a lot of natural gas
59
141000
2000
嗯，天然氣和一些核能，
02:38
and a little bit of nuclear, for starters.
60
143000
3000
這些能源剛開始起步。
02:41
And what goes on in the future?
61
146000
2000
未來會用什麼能源呢？
02:43
Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades
62
148000
2000
嗯，我想在未來的數十年裡，
02:45
is peak gas,
63
150000
3000
天然氣的比重會達到高峰，
02:48
and beyond that,
64
153000
2000
再過來可能是些
02:50
peak renewables.
65
155000
2000
可重複使用的能源。
02:52
Now, I'll tell you another little, very important
66
157000
2000
就這張圖片，
02:54
story about this picture.
67
159000
2000
我想再告訴各位一件重要的事。
02:56
Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total
68
161000
2000
我不是說全球的能源耗用量沒有增加，
02:58
isn't increasing, it is --
69
163000
2000
事實上是在增加的。
03:00
that's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it,
70
165000
2000
那又是另外一回事，想知道的人可以來找我談，
03:02
we'll fill in some of the details --
71
167000
2000
我會再補充給你細節資料。
03:04
but there's a very important message here:
72
169000
2000
有一個很重要的訊息隱藏在裡面，
03:06
This is 200 years of history,
73
171000
2000
這是200年來的能源史，
03:08
and for 200 years we've been systematically decarbonizing
74
173000
3000
在這200年來，我們在能源體系上
03:11
our energy system.
75
176000
2000
不斷地降低碳排放量。
03:13
Energy systems of the world
76
178000
2000
全世界的能源體系，
03:15
becoming progressively -- year on year,
77
180000
2000
一年又一年、
03:17
decade on decade, century on century --
78
182000
2000
數十年又數十年、幾百年又幾百年，
03:19
becoming less carbon intense.
79
184000
3000
逐漸地在降低對碳的依賴程度。
03:22
And that continues into the future
80
187000
2000
未來也會持續降低，
03:24
with the renewables that we're developing today,
81
189000
2000
因為我們現在所在開發的可重複使用的能源，
03:26
reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy
82
191000
2000
在本世紀中可能就會佔所有能源的
03:28
by mid century.
83
193000
2000
百分之30。
03:30
Now that might be the end of the story --
84
195000
2000
你以為演說到這裡就可以結束了吧？
03:32
Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables --
85
197000
2000
我們把所有能源都用可重複使用的能源來代替不就得了？
03:34
but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.
86
199000
2000
我覺得事情沒那麼簡單。
03:36
And to tell the next part of the story --
87
201000
2000
接下來的部分，
03:38
and this is looking out say 2100 and beyond.
88
203000
3000
就要往前看，看看2100年之後的情形。
03:41
What is the future
89
206000
2000
未來真正能持久
03:43
of truly sustainable, carbon-free energy?
90
208000
2000
又沒有碳排放的能源到底是什麼？
03:45
Well, we have to take a little excursion,
91
210000
2000
嗯，我們得先安排一段小小的旅行。
03:47
and we'll start in central Texas.
92
212000
2000
我們先從德州中部開始，
03:49
Here's a piece of limestone.
93
214000
2000
這是一塊石灰石，
03:51
I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas.
94
216000
2000
我在德州的馬波佛市市郊撿到的，
03:53
It's about 400 million years old.
95
218000
2000
這大約有四億年的歷史了，
03:55
And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it.
96
220000
3000
而這只是一塊石灰石，沒有什麼特別的。
03:58
Now, here's a piece of chalk.
97
223000
2000
這裡還有一截粉筆，
04:00
I picked this up at MIT. It's a little younger.
98
225000
3000
我在麻省理工學院拿來的，這個就年輕多了，
04:03
And it's different than this limestone, you can see that.
99
228000
2000
也和石灰石不同，從外表就看得出來。
04:05
You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff,
100
230000
2000
你不會用這玩意兒來蓋房子，
04:07
and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and write on the chalkboard with this.
101
232000
3000
你也不會在課堂上用這個在黑板上書寫。
04:10
Yeah, it's very different -- no, it's not different.
102
235000
2000
對，這二個是很不一樣。但不對哦，他們沒什麼不同，
04:12
It's not different, it's the same stuff:
103
237000
2000
就是沒有不同，他們基本上一樣，
04:14
calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate.
104
239000
3000
都是碳酸鈣，這也是碳酸鈣。
04:17
What's different is how the molecules are put together.
105
242000
3000
唯一不同的，就只是分子排列的方式不同而已。
04:20
Now, if you think that's kind of neat,
106
245000
3000
如果你覺得這很神奇，
04:23
the story gets really neat right now.
107
248000
3000
真正神奇的還在後頭。
04:26
Off the coast of California comes this:
108
251000
3000
在加州的海岸邊，有這個東西，
04:29
It's an abalone shell.
109
254000
2000
這是鮑魚的殼。
04:31
Now, millions of abalone every year
110
256000
2000
每年有數百萬的鮑魚
04:33
make this shell.
111
258000
2000
在製造這些殼。
04:35
Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing,
112
260000
2000
對了，你猜的沒錯，
04:37
it's calcium carbonate.
113
262000
2000
這也是碳酸鈣。
04:39
It's the same stuff as this
114
264000
2000
這和這個一樣，
04:41
and the same stuff as this.
115
266000
2000
也和這個一樣；
04:43
But it's not the same stuff; it's different.
116
268000
2000
但又不完全相同，還是有點不同，
04:45
It's thousands of times,
117
270000
2000
這個硬度大約是幾千倍，
04:47
maybe 3,000 times tougher than this.
118
272000
3000
大約是這個的三千倍硬。
04:50
And why? Because the lowly abalone
119
275000
3000
為什麼？因為這些不起眼的鮑魚，
04:53
is able to lay down
120
278000
2000
只能夠一層一層地
04:55
the calcium carbonate crystals in layers,
121
280000
2000
產生這些碳酸鈣結晶，
04:57
making this beautiful, iridescent
122
282000
2000
製作出這些美麗、
04:59
mother of pearl.
123
284000
2000
璀燦的珍珠母。
05:01
Very specialized material
124
286000
2000
這是很特殊的材料，
05:03
that the abalone self-assembles,
125
288000
2000
由鮑魚自行生成，
05:05
millions of abalone,
126
290000
2000
許多鮑魚一直製造，
05:07
all the time, every day, every year.
127
292000
2000
每天每年製造。
05:09
This is pretty incredible stuff.
128
294000
2000
很了不起的東西。
05:11
All the same, what's different?
129
296000
2000
這些都一樣，有什麼不同？
05:13
How the molecules are put together.
130
298000
2000
分子排列的方式不同。
05:15
Now, what does this have to do with energy?
131
300000
3000
這和能源有什麼關係？
05:18
Here's a piece of coal.
132
303000
2000
這是一塊煤炭，
05:20
And I'll suggest that this coal
133
305000
2000
我猜這塊煤炭
05:22
is about as exciting
134
307000
2000
就和這支粉筆
05:24
as this chalk.
135
309000
2000
一樣有趣。
05:27
Now, whether we're talking about fuels
136
312000
2000
當我們在談論燃料、
05:29
or energy carriers,
137
314000
2000
或是能源的媒介、
05:31
or perhaps novel materials for batteries
138
316000
2000
或是電池和燃料電池
05:33
or fuel cells,
139
318000
2000
的新型材料時，
05:35
nature hasn't ever built those perfect materials yet
140
320000
3000
大自然界裡不一定有這些材料，
05:38
because nature didn't need to.
141
323000
2000
因為大自然不需要這些材料。
05:40
Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell,
142
325000
3000
大自然之所以不需要這些材料，
05:43
the survival of a species didn't depend
143
328000
3000
因為物種的生存
05:46
on building those materials,
144
331000
2000
並不需要倚賴這些材料，
05:48
until maybe now when it might just matter.
145
333000
3000
不像鮑魚剛好需要殼來保護自己。
05:52
So, when we think about the future of energy,
146
337000
3000
所以，當我們在思考未來的能源時，
05:55
imagine
147
340000
2000
想像一下，
05:57
what would it be like
148
342000
2000
未來的能源會像什麼？
05:59
if instead of this,
149
344000
2000
除了煤炭之外，
06:01
we could build the energy equivalent of this
150
346000
3000
我們是否能製造出替代能源，
06:05
just by rearranging the molecules differently.
151
350000
3000
就只要把分子重新排列一下就好？
06:09
And so that is my story.
152
354000
2000
這就是我要講的。
06:11
The oil will never run out.
153
356000
2000
石油永遠沒有用完的一天，
06:13
It's not because we have a lot of it.
154
358000
2000
並不是因為存量還很多，
06:15
It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills.
155
360000
3000
也不是因為我們會建造很多風車，
06:18
It's because, well,
156
363000
3000
那是因為
06:21
thousands of years ago,
157
366000
2000
數千年以前，
06:23
people invented ideas --
158
368000
2000
人們就有了想法，
06:25
they had ideas, innovations, technology --
159
370000
2000
想法激發發明，進而產生科技。
06:27
and the Stone Age ended,
160
372000
3000
石器時代會結束，
06:30
not because we ran out of stones.
161
375000
2000
並不是因為石頭被用光了。
06:32
(Laughter)
162
377000
2000
(笑聲)
06:34
It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology
163
379000
3000
人們的想法、發明和科技，
06:37
that will end the age of oil, long before we run out of oil.
164
382000
3000
會在我們把石油用光之前，替我們終結石油時代。
06:40
Thank you very much.
165
385000
2000
謝謝各位。
06:42
(Applause)
166
387000
3000
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Richard Sears - GeophysicistRichard Sears thinks hard about the post-oil world. He's a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a VP at Shell.
Why you should listen
Richard Sears is a visiting scientist at MIT, after a long career as a geophysicist and executive at Shell. His brief in both places: Think about the world post-oil. It's a corporate-academic crossover that aims to enrich the academic conversation with real-world experience from people like Sears, who is an expert in looking for new energy resources -- both hydrocarbon and the world of options for what's next.
At MIT, Sears is affiliated with the MIT Energy Initiative and the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems (LIDS). He's also an official "gamechanger" at LeadingEnergyNow.
Richard Sears | Speaker | TED.com