TED2006
Hans Rosling: The best stats you've ever seen
Hans Rosling vam pokazuje najbolju statistiku koju ste ikada vidjeli
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Još nikada niste vidjeli ovakav prikaz podataka. Dramatičnošću i brzinom sportskog komentatora, statistički guru Hans Rosling ruši mitove o takozvanom "svijetu u razvoju."
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development
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Prije 10 godina, počeo sam švedske dodiplomce
00:29
to Swedish undergraduate students. That was after having spent
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podučavati globalnom razvoju. To je bilo nakon što sam
00:33
about 20 years together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa,
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oko 20 godina proveo proučavajući glad u Africi s afričkim institucijama,
00:37
so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.
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pa se od mene nekako očekivalo da znam ponešto o svijetu.
00:41
And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,
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Na našem medicinskom sveučilištu, Karolinska Institute, pokrenuo sam
00:46
an undergraduate course called Global Health. But when you get
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dodiplomski kolegij nazvan Globalno zdravlje. Ali kad dobijete
00:50
that opportunity, you get a little nervous. I thought, these students
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takvu priliku, postanete malo nervozni. Mislio sam, studenti
00:53
coming to us actually have the highest grade you can get
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koji k nama dođu imaju najviše ocjene koje možete dobiti
00:56
in Swedish college systems -- so, I thought, maybe they know everything
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u švedskom školskom sustavu - pa možda znaju sve
00:59
I'm going to teach them about. So I did a pre-test when they came.
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o onome o čemu ću ih podučavati. Pa sam im dao preliminarni test.
01:03
And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:
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Jedno od pitanja na kojemu sam mnogo naučio bilo je ovo:
01:06
"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"
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"Koja zemlja ima najvišu stopu dječje smrtnosti od ovih pet parova?"
01:10
And I put them together, so that in each pair of country,
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I tako sam ih spojio, da u svakom paru država
01:14
one has twice the child mortality of the other. And this means that
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jedan član ima dvostruko veću dječju smrtnost od drugog. To je značilo
01:19
it's much bigger a difference than the uncertainty of the data.
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da je razlika mnogo veća od netočnosti u podacima.
01:24
I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,
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Vas ovdje neću izložiti testu, ali riječ je o Turskoj
01:26
which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.
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koja je najveća ovdje, pa Poljska, Rusija, Pakistan i Južnoafrička republika.
01:31
And these were the results of the Swedish students. I did it so I got
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A ovo su bili rezultati švedskih studenata. Uradio sam sve tako da sam dobio
01:34
the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow, and I got happy,
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interval sigurnosti koji je prilično uzak, i bio sam sretan,
01:37
of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible. That means that
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naravno: 1,8 točnih odgovora od pet mogućih. To znači
01:41
there was a place for a professor of international health --
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da ima mjesta za profesora međunarodnog zdravlja -
01:44
(Laughter) and for my course.
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(Smijeh) i za moj kolegij.
01:46
But one late night, when I was compiling the report
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No kasno jedne noći, dok sam sastavljao izvješće,
01:50
I really realized my discovery. I have shown
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doista sam shvatio svoje nalaze. Pokazao sam
01:54
that Swedish top students know statistically significantly less
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da najbolji švedski studenti o svijetu
01:59
about the world than the chimpanzees.
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znaju statistički značajno manje nego čimpanze.
02:01
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:03
Because the chimpanzee would score half right if I gave them
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Jer bi čimpanze pogodile pola odgovora da sam im dao
02:07
two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey. They would be right half of the cases.
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dvije banane sa Šri Lankom i Turskom. Bile bi u pravu u pola slučajeva.
02:10
But the students are not there. The problem for me was not ignorance;
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Ali studenti nisu. Za mene problem nije bilo neznanje.
02:14
it was preconceived ideas.
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Bile su to ranije usvojene ideje.
02:17
I did also an unethical study of the professors of the Karolinska Institute
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Također sam neetički provjerio i profesore na Karolinska Institute
02:21
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:22
-- that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
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-- koji dodjeljuje Nobelovu nagradu za medicinu,
02:24
and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.
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i oni su bili u rangu sa čimpanzama.
02:26
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:29
This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,
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Tada sam shvatio da zaista postoji potreba za komunikacijom,
02:33
because the data of what's happening in the world
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jer su podaci o tome što se događa u svijetu
02:36
and the child health of every country is very well aware.
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i o zdravlju djece u svakoj zemlji dobro poznati.
02:39
We did this software which displays it like this: every bubble here is a country.
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Napravili smo program koji podatke prikazuje ovako: svaki balon je jedna zemlja.
02:44
This country over here is China. This is India.
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Ova država ovdje je Kina. Ovo je Indija.
02:50
The size of the bubble is the population, and on this axis here I put fertility rate.
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Veličina balona je stanovništvo, a na ovoj osi sam stavio stopu rađanja.
02:56
Because my students, what they said
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Zbog toga što su moji studenti rekli
02:59
when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,
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kad su pogledali svijet, a ja sam ih pitao,
03:01
"What do you really think about the world?"
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"Što zaista mislite o svijetu?"
03:03
Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.
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Prvo sam otkrio da je udžbenik uglavnom Tintin.
03:07
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:08
And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'
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Rekli su, "Svijet je još uvijek 'mi' i 'oni.'
03:11
And we is Western world and them is Third World."
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Mi smo Zapadni svijet, a oni su Treći svijet."
03:14
"And what do you mean with Western world?" I said.
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"A što smatrate pod Zapadnim svijetom?", upitao sam.
03:17
"Well, that's long life and small family, and Third World is short life and large family."
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"Pa, dug život i male obitelji, a Treći svijet su kratak život i velike obitelji."
03:22
So this is what I could display here. I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman:
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To su podaci koje sam mogao ovdje prikazati. Stopa rađanja je ovdje: broj djece po ženi,
03:28
one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman.
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jedno, dvoje, troje, četvero, sve do osmero djece po ženi.
03:32
We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about -- on the size of families in all countries.
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Imamo vrlo dobre podatke od 1962. - 1960. - o veličini obitelji u svim zemljama.
03:38
The error margin is narrow. Here I put life expectancy at birth,
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Margina pogreške je mala. Ovdje sam stavio očekivanu duljinu života pri rođenju,
03:41
from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years.
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od 30 godina u nekim zemljama, do nekih 70 godina.
03:45
And 1962, there was really a group of countries here
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1962. godine, ovdje se nalazila skupina zemalja.
03:48
that was industrialized countries, and they had small families and long lives.
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Bile su to industrijalizirane zemlje, s malim obiteljima i dugim životnim vijekom.
03:53
And these were the developing countries:
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A ove su bile zemlje u razvoju:
03:55
they had large families and they had relatively short lives.
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imale su velike obitelji i relativno kratki životni vijek.
03:58
Now what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.
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Dakle, što se dogodilo od 1962? Želimo vidjeti promjenu.
04:02
Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries?
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Jesu li studenti u pravu? Postoje li još uvijek dvije vrste zemalja?
04:06
Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?
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Ili su zemlje u razvoju smanjile veličinu obitelji i sad žive ovdje?
04:09
Or have they got longer lives and live up there?
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Ili imaju dulji životni vijek i žive ovdje?
04:11
Let's see. We stopped the world then. This is all U.N. statistics
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Pogledajmo. Zaustavili smo svijet. Ovo je UN statistika
04:14
that have been available. Here we go. Can you see there?
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koja nam je dostupna. Idemo. Vidite li ovdje?
04:17
It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.
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Ovo je Kina, kreće se prema boljem zdravlju ovdje, napreduje.
04:20
All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.
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Sve zelene latinoameričke države se kreću prema manjim obiteljima.
04:23
Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,
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Ove žute ovdje su arapske države,
04:26
and they get larger families, but they -- no, longer life, but not larger families.
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i one dobivaju veće obitelji, ali one -- ne, dulji život, ali ne veće obitelji.
04:30
The Africans are the green down here. They still remain here.
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Afrikanci su zeleni ovdje dolje. Oni su još uvijek ovdje.
04:33
This is India. Indonesia's moving on pretty fast.
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Ovo je Indija. Indonezija se kreće prilično brzo.
04:36
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:37
And in the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries there.
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A 80-tih godina, Bangladeš je još uvijek među afričkim zemljama ovdje.
04:40
But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s:
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Ali sada, Bangladeš -- ovo je čudo koje se događa u 80-tima:
04:43
the imams start to promote family planning.
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imami počinju poticati obiteljsko planiranje.
04:46
They move up into that corner. And in '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic
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Pomiču se u ovaj kut gore. A u 90-tima, imamo strašnu epidemiju HIV-a
04:51
that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries
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koja smanjuje očekivano trajanje života u afričkim zemljama,
04:54
and all the rest of them move up into the corner,
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a sve druge se pomiču u ovaj kut gore
04:58
where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world.
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gdje imamo dug život i malu obitelj, i imamo potpuno novi svijet.
05:02
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
05:15
Let me make a comparison directly between the United States of America and Vietnam.
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Dopustite da izravno usporedim Sjedinjene Države i Vijetnam.
05:20
1964: America had small families and long life;
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1964: Amerika je imala male obitelji i dug život;
05:25
Vietnam had large families and short lives. And this is what happens:
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Vijetnam velike obitelji i kratak život. I evo što se događa:
05:29
the data during the war indicate that even with all the death,
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podaci tijekom rata pokazuju da je, usprkos poginulima,
05:35
there was an improvement of life expectancy. By the end of the year,
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došlo do produljenja očekivanog životnog vijeka. Do kraja godine,
05:38
the family planning started in Vietnam and they went for smaller families.
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u Vijetnamu je počelo planiranje obitelji i kretanje prema manjim obiteljima.
05:41
And the United States up there is getting for longer life,
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A Sjedinjene Države ovdje gore idu prema duljem životu,
05:44
keeping family size. And in the '80s now,
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zadržavajući veličinu obitelji. A sada u 80-tima,
05:47
they give up communist planning and they go for market economy,
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Vijetnam odustaje od komunističkog planiranja i usvaja tržišnu ekonomiju
05:50
and it moves faster even than social life. And today, we have
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i kreće se brže čak i od društvenog života. A danas,
05:54
in Vietnam the same life expectancy and the same family size
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u Vijetnamu imamo isto trajanje života i istu veličinu obitelji
05:59
here in Vietnam, 2003, as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.
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evo, Vijetnam u 2003., kakva je bila u SAD 1974. godine, na kraju rata.
06:06
I think we all -- if we don't look in the data --
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Mislim da svi mi - ako ne gledamo podatke --
06:10
we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia, which was
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podcijenjujemo strahovitu promjenu u Aziji u kojoj
06:14
in social change before we saw the economical change.
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se dogodila društvena promjena prije nego što smo vidjeli ekonomsku promjenu.
06:18
Let's move over to another way here in which we could display
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Prijeđimo na drugi način na koji možemo prikazati
06:23
the distribution in the world of the income. This is the world distribution of income of people.
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distribuciju svjetskog dohotka. Ovo je svjetska distribucija dohotka.
06:30
One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.
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Jedan dolar, 10 dolara ili 100 dolara dnevno.
06:35
There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.
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Nema više jaza između bogatih i siromašnih. To je mit.
06:39
There's a little hump here. But there are people all the way.
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Ovdje postoji brežuljak. Ali ljudi postoje posvuda.
06:44
And if we look where the income ends up -- the income --
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A ako pogledamo gdje dohodak završava - dohodak --
06:48
this is 100 percent the world's annual income. And the richest 20 percent,
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ovo je 100 posto svjetskog godišnjeg dohotka. A najbogatijih 20 posto,
06:54
they take out of that about 74 percent. And the poorest 20 percent,
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na njih otpada oko 74 posto. Na najsiromašnijih 20 posto
07:01
they take about two percent. And this shows that the concept
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otpada oko 2 posto. I ovo pokazuje da je koncept
07:06
of developing countries is extremely doubtful. We think about aid, like
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zemalja u razvoju izrazito dvojben. Mi razmišljamo o pomoći,
07:10
these people here giving aid to these people here. But in the middle,
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da ovi ovdje šalju pomoć ovim ljudima ovdje. Ali u sredini
07:15
we have most the world population, and they have now 24 percent of the income.
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imamo najveći broj stanovnika, i na njih se odnosi 24 posto dohotka.
07:19
We heard it in other forms. And who are these?
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Čuli smo to i drugdje. A tko su oni?
07:23
Where are the different countries? I can show you Africa.
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Gdje su te različite zemlje? Pokazat ću vam u Africi.
07:27
This is Africa. 10 percent the world population, most in poverty.
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Ovo je Afrika. 10 posto svjetskog stanovništva, uglavnom u siromaštvu.
07:32
This is OECD. The rich country. The country club of the U.N.
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Ovo je OECD. Bogate zemlje. Gospodski klub UN-a.
07:37
And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
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One su na ovoj strani. Poprilično preklapanje između Afrike i OECD-a.
07:42
And this is Latin America. It has everything on this Earth,
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A ovo je Južna Amerika. Uključuje svakoga na ovoj Zemlji,
07:45
from the poorest to the richest, in Latin America.
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od najsiromašnijih do najbogatijih, ta južna Amerika.
07:48
And on top of that, we can put East Europe, we can put East Asia,
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I na sve to možemo staviti istočnu Europu, istočnu Aziju,
07:53
and we put South Asia. And how did it look like if we go back in time,
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i južnu Aziju. A kako je sve izgledalo ako se vratimo kroz vrijeme,
07:58
to about 1970? Then there was more of a hump.
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negdje u 1970. godinu? Postojao je veći brijeg.
08:03
And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.
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I najveći broj onih koji su živjeli u apsolutnoj bijedi su bili Azijci.
08:07
The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia. And if I now let the world move forward,
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Svjetski problem je bilo siromaštvo u Aziji. A ako sad pokrenemo svijet unaprijed,
08:14
you will see that while population increase, there are
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vidimo da dok stanovništvo raste, stotine milijuna
08:17
hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty and some others
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ljudi u Aziji izlazi iz siromaštva, a neki drugi
08:20
getting into poverty, and this is the pattern we have today.
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postaju siromašni, i to je obrazac koji imamo danas.
08:23
And the best projection from the World Bank is that this will happen,
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Najbolja projekcija Svjetske banke je da će se ovo dogoditi
08:27
and we will not have a divided world. We'll have most people in the middle.
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i da nećemo imati podijeljen svijet. Večina ljudi će biti u sredini.
08:31
Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,
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Naravno, ovo ovdje je logoritamska skala,
08:33
but our concept of economy is growth with percent. We look upon it
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ali naš koncept gospodarstva je postotni rast. Gledamo
08:38
as a possibility of percentile increase. If I change this, and I take
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na gospodarstvo kao mogućnost postotnog povećanja. Ako to promijenim
08:44
GDP per capita instead of family income, and I turn these
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i uzmem BDP po stanovniku umjesto obiteljskog dohotka, i te pojedinačne
08:48
individual data into regional data of gross domestic product,
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podatke pretvorim u regionalne podatke o BDP-u,
08:54
and I take the regions down here, the size of the bubble is still the population.
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i prikažem regije ovdje dolje, veličina balona je i dalje stanovništvo.
08:58
And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
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I imate OECD ovdje, imate sub-saharsku Afriku ovdje,
09:01
and we take off the Arab states there,
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i uzmemo arapske države ovdje,
09:04
coming both from Africa and from Asia, and we put them separately,
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i one afričke i one azijske, i prikažemo ih zasebno,
09:08
and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,
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i možemo proširiti os, i mogu dodati novu dimenziju ovdje,
09:13
by adding the social values there, child survival.
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dodajući društvene vrijednosti, preživljavanje djece.
09:16
Now I have money on that axis, and I have the possibility of children to survive there.
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Sada imam novac na ovoj osi, i vjerojatnost preživljavanja djece na ovoj.
09:21
In some countries, 99.7 percent of children survive to five years of age;
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U nekim zemljama, 99,7 posto djece preživi do pete godine života;
09:25
others, only 70. And here it seems there is a gap
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u drugim, samo 70 posto. I ovdje izgleda da postoji jaz
09:29
between OECD, Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
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između OECD-a, južne Amerike, istočne Europe, istočne Azije,
09:33
Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
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arapskih država, južne Azije i sub-saharske Afrike.
09:37
The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.
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Linearnost je vrlo jaka između preživljavanja djece i novca.
09:42
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa. Health is there and better health is up there.
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Ali, hajde da podijelim sub-saharsku Afriku. Zdravlje je ovdje, a bolje zdravlje je ovdje.
09:50
I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
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Mogu ovdje podijeliti sub-saharsku Afriku na pojedine zemlje.
09:55
And when it burst, the size of its country bubble is the size of the population.
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Nakon raspršenja, veličina balona je veličina stanovništva jedne države.
10:00
Sierra Leone down there. Mauritius is up there. Mauritius was the first country
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Sierra Leone ovdje dolje. Mauricijus ovdje gore. Mauricijus je prva zemlja
10:04
to get away with trade barriers, and they could sell their sugar --
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koja se odrekla trgovinskih barijera, i mogli su prodavati svoj šećer.
10:08
they could sell their textiles -- on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.
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Mogli su prodavati svoj tekstil pod istim uvjetima kao i Europa i Sjeverna Amerika.
10:13
There's a huge difference between Africa. And Ghana is here in the middle.
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Razlike u Africi su ogromne. Ghana je ovdje u sredini.
10:17
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
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U Sierra Leone, humanitarna pomoć.
10:20
Here in Uganda, development aid. Here, time to invest; there,
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U Ugandi, razvojna pomoć. Ovdje, vrijeme za ulaganja, ovdje
10:25
you can go for a holiday. It's a tremendous variation
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možete ići na ljetovanje. Varijacije unutar Afrike su
10:28
within Africa which we rarely often make -- that it's equal everything.
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ogromne, a rijetko ih shvaćamo - kao da je sve jednako.
10:33
I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle.
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Mogu podijeliti južnu Aziju ovdje. Indija je veliki balon u sredini.
10:37
But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
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Ali ogromna je razlika između Afganistana i Šri Lanke.
10:41
I can split Arab states. How are they? Same climate, same culture,
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Mogu podijeliti arapske zemlje. Kakve su one? Ista klima, ista kultura,
10:45
same religion -- huge difference. Even between neighbors.
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ista religija. Ogromne razlike. Čak i među susjedima.
10:49
Yemen, civil war. United Arab Emirate, money which was quite equally and well used.
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U Jemenu, građanski rat. Ujedinjeni Arapski Emirati, novac koji je ujednačeno i dobro upotrijebljen.
10:54
Not as the myth is. And that includes all the children of the foreign workers who are in the country.
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Ne odgovara mitovima. To uključuje svu djecu stranih radnika koji su u zemlji.
11:01
Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.
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Podaci su često bolji nego što mislite. Mnogi tvrde da su podaci loši.
11:06
There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:
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Postoji margina nesigurnosti, ali ovdje možemo vidjeti razlike:
11:08
Cambodia, Singapore. The differences are much bigger
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Kambodža, Singapur. Razlike su mnogo veće
11:11
than the weakness of the data. East Europe:
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od slabosti podataka. Istočna Europa:
11:14
Soviet economy for a long time, but they come out after 10 years
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sovjetska ekonomija dugo vremena, ali izlaze nakon deset godina
11:20
very, very differently. And there is Latin America.
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jako, jako različito. A ovdje je Južna Amerika.
11:23
Today, we don't have to go to Cuba to find a healthy country in Latin America.
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Danas, ne moramo ići na Kubu da pronađemo zdravu zemlju u Južnoj Americi.
11:27
Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.
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Čile će imati nižu stopu dječje smrtnosti od Kube u idućih nekoliko godina.
11:32
And here we have high-income countries in the OECD.
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A ovdje su zemlje OECD-a s visokim dohotkom.
11:35
And we get the whole pattern here of the world,
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Ovdje vidimo čitav svjetski uzorak,
11:39
which is more or less like this. And if we look at it,
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koji je, više ili manje, ovakav. I ako pogledamo
11:44
how it looks -- the world, in 1960, it starts to move. 1960.
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kako svijet izgleda 1960., počinje se kretati. 1960.
11:50
This is Mao Tse-tung. He brought health to China. And then he died.
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Ovo je Mao Ce Tung. Donio je zdravlje u Kinu. I tada je umro.
11:53
And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China, and brought them into the mainstream again.
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Tada Deng Xiaoping dolazi i donosi novac u Kinu, i vodi ih opet u glavnu struju.
11:58
And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,
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I vidjeli smo kako se zemlje gibaju u različitim smjerovima
12:02
so it's sort of difficult to get
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pa je nekako teško naći zemlju
12:06
an example country which shows the pattern of the world.
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koja bi bila primjer za svjetski uzorak.
12:11
But I would like to bring you back to about here at 1960.
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Želim vas vratiti ovdje, u 1960. godinu.
12:17
I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one, with Brazil,
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Želio bih usporediti Južnu Koreju ovdje, s Brazilom
12:27
which is this one. The label went away for me here. And I would like to compare Uganda,
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koji je ovdje. Natpis mi je pobjegao. I želio bih usporediti Ugandu,
12:32
which is there. And I can run it forward, like this.
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koja je ovdje. I mogu sve pokrenuti unaprijed, ovako.
12:37
And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,
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I vidite kako Južna Koreja vrlo, vrlo brzo napreduje,
12:46
whereas Brazil is much slower.
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dok je Brazil puno sporiji.
12:49
And if we move back again, here, and we put on trails on them, like this,
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A ako se opet vratimo natrag, i uključimo im repove, ovako,
12:55
you can see again that the speed of development
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vidite opet da je brzina razvoja
12:59
is very, very different, and the countries are moving more or less
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jako, jako različita, i zemlje se kreću više ili manje
13:05
in the same rate as money and health, but it seems you can move
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istom stopom kao i novac i zdravlje, ali čini se da možete
13:09
much faster if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.
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napredovati puno brže ako ste prvo zdravi, nego ako ste prvo bogati.
13:14
And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirate.
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Da bismo to pokazali, možemo pogledati put Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata.
13:18
They came from here, a mineral country. They cached all the oil;
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Došli su odavde, zemlja s mineralima. Crpli su svu naftu,
13:21
they got all the money; but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.
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dobili sav novac, ali zdravlje ne možete kupiti u supermarketu.
13:25
You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.
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Morate ulagati u zdravstvo. Morate školovati djecu.
13:29
You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.
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Morate obučiti zdravstvene djelatnike. Morate obrazovati stanovništvo.
13:32
And Sheikh Sayed did that in a fairly good way.
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I šeik Sayed je to prilično dobro učinio.
13:35
In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.
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Usprkos padu cijene nafte, doveo je svoju zemlju ovdje.
13:39
So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,
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Pa tako imamo puno ujednačeniji izgled svijeta,
13:43
where all countries tend to use their money
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gdje sve zemlje koriste svoj novac bolje
13:45
better than they used in the past. Now, this is, more or less,
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nego što su ga koristile ranije. Ovo je, više ili manje,
13:50
if you look at the average data of the countries -- they are like this.
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ako pogledate prosječne podatke po zemljama. Izgledaju ovako.
13:57
Now that's dangerous, to use average data, because there is such a lot
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To je opasno, koristiti prosječne podatke, jer postoje
14:02
of difference within countries. So if I go and look here, we can see
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velike razlike i unutar zemalja. Pa ako pogledam ovdje, vidim
14:08
that Uganda today is where South Korea was 1960. If I split Uganda,
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da je Uganda danas ondje gdje je Južna Koreja bila 1960. Ako podijelim Ugandu
14:14
there's quite a difference within Uganda. These are the quintiles of Uganda.
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vidmo veliku razliku unutar Ugande. Ovo su petine u Ugandi.
14:19
The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.
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Najbogatijih 20 posto u Ugandi su ovdje.
14:22
The poorest are down there. If I split South Africa, it's like this.
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Najsiromašniji su ovdje. Ako podijelim južnu Afriku, izgleda ovako.
14:26
And if I go down and look at Niger, where there was such a terrible famine,
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Ako se spustim i pogledam Nigeriju gdje je vladala strašna glad,
14:31
lastly, it's like this. The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,
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izgleda ovako. 20 posto najsiromašnijih u Nigeriji je ovdje,
14:36
and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,
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a 20 posto najbogatijih u južnoj Africi ovdje,
14:39
and yet we tend to discuss on what solutions there should be in Africa.
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a opet diskutiramo o mogućim rješenjima za Afriku.
14:44
Everything in this world exists in Africa. And you can't
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U Africi imate sve što postoji na svijetu. I ne možete
14:47
discuss universal access to HIV [medicine] for that quintile up here
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razmatrati univerzalni pristup lijekovima za HIV za ovu petinu gore
14:51
with the same strategy as down here. The improvement of the world
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primijenjujući istu strategiju kao za ove dolje. Poboljšanje svijeta
14:55
must be highly contextualized, and it's not relevant to have it
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se mora staviti u kontekst, i nije relevantno promatrati ga
15:00
on regional level. We must be much more detailed.
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na regionalnoj razini. Moramo biti mnogo precizniji.
15:03
We find that students get very excited when they can use this.
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Otkrivamo da su studenti uzbuđeni kad mogu koristiti ovo.
15:07
And even more policy makers and the corporate sectors would like to see
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A još više kreatora politika i korporativnih sektora želi
15:12
how the world is changing. Now, why doesn't this take place?
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vidjeti kako se svijet mijenja. Pa, zašto se onda to ne događa?
15:16
Why are we not using the data we have? We have data in the United Nations,
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Zašto ne koristimo podatke koje imamo? Imamo podatke u Ujedinjenim Narodima,
15:20
in the national statistical agencies
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u nacionalnim statističkim uredima,
15:22
and in universities and other non-governmental organizations.
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na sveučilištima i drugim nevladinim organizacijama.
15:26
Because the data is hidden down in the databases.
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Zato što su podaci skriveni u bazama podataka.
15:28
And the public is there, and the Internet is there, but we have still not used it effectively.
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Javnost je ovdje, Internet je ovdje, ali još uvijek ne koristimo podatke učinkovito.
15:33
All that information we saw changing in the world
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Sve te informacije koje smo vidjeli da se mijenjaju u svijetu,
15:36
does not include publicly-funded statistics. There are some web pages
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ne uključuju statistiku koja se financira javno. Postoje neke mrežne stranice
15:40
like this, you know, but they take some nourishment down from the databases,
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poput ove, ali one se osvježavaju iz baza podataka,
15:46
but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.
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ali ljudi ih naplaćuju, glupe zaporke i dosadna statistika.
15:51
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
15:54
And this won't work. So what is needed? We have the databases.
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I to ne funkcionira. Pa što je onda potrebno? Imamo baze podataka.
15:58
It's not the new database you need. We have wonderful design tools,
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Nije nova baza ono što nam treba. Imamo divne oblikovne alate,
16:02
and more and more are added up here. So we started
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i sve više i više ih se dodaje. Pa smo započeli
16:05
a nonprofit venture which we called -- linking data to design --
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neprofitni pothvat kojeg smo nazvali - povezujući podatke i dizajn -
16:10
we call it Gapminder, from the London underground, where they warn you,
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zovemo ga Gapminder, po londonskoj podzemnoj željeznici gdje vas upozoravaju,
16:13
"mind the gap." So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
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"mind the gap" (pazite na jaz). Mislili smo da je Gapminder prikladno ime.
16:16
And we started to write software which could link the data like this.
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I počeli smo pisati programe koji na ovakav način povezuju podatke.
16:20
And it wasn't that difficult. It took some person years, and we have produced animations.
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I nije bilo tako teško. Trebalo je nešto ljudskih godina, i napravili smo animacije.
16:26
You can take a data set and put it there.
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Možete uzeti niz podataka i staviti ga ovdje.
16:28
We are liberating U.N. data, some few U.N. organization.
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Oslobađamo UN-ove podatke, nekih UN organizacija.
16:33
Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world,
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Neke zemlje prihvaćaju da njihove baze izlaze u svijet,
16:37
but what we really need is, of course, a search function.
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ali ono što stvarno trebamo je, naravno, funkcija pretraživanja
16:40
A search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format
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gdje možemo kopirati podatke u formatu priladnom za pretraživanje
16:45
and get it out in the world. And what do we hear when we go around?
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i pustiti ih u svijet. I što čujemo u svojim obilascima?
16:48
I've done anthropology on the main statistical units. Everyone says,
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Radio sam i antropologiju prema glavnim statističkim jedinicama. Svi kažu,
16:53
"It's impossible. This can't be done. Our information is so peculiar
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"Nemoguće. To se ne može. Naše informacije su toliko specifične
16:57
in detail, so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.
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u svojim detaljima da ih se ne može pretraživati kako se pretražuje druge.
17:00
We cannot give the data free to the students, free to the entrepreneurs of the world."
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Ne možemo dati podatke besplatno studentima, besplatno svjetskim poduzetnicima."
17:05
But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?
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Ali to je ono što bismo voljeli vidjeti, zar ne?
17:08
The publicly-funded data is down here.
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Podaci koji se financiraju iz javnih izvora su ovdje dolje.
17:11
And we would like flowers to grow out on the Net.
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A mi bismo željeli da cvjetovi rastu na Internetu.
17:14
And one of the crucial points is to make them searchable, and then people can use
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A jedan od ključnih elemenata je učiniti ih prikladnim za pretraživanje, a onda
17:19
the different design tool to animate it there.
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ljudi mogu koristiti drukčiji oblikovni alat da ih ovdje animiraju.
17:21
And I have a pretty good news for you. I have a good news that the present,
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Imam sasvim dobre vijesti za vas. Dobre su vijesti da sadašnji,
17:26
new Head of U.N. Statistics, he doesn't say it's impossible.
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novi direktor UN Statistike ne kaže da je to nemoguće.
17:30
He only says, "We can't do it."
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On kaže samo, "Mi to ne možemo."
17:32
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
17:36
And that's a quite clever guy, huh?
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Tip je stvarno pametan, ha?
17:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
17:40
So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.
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U narednim godinama vidjet ćemo da se puno toga događa s podacima.
17:44
We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.
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Moći ćemo promatrati distribuciju dohotka na sasvim nove načine.
17:48
This is the income distribution of China, 1970.
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Ovo je distribucija dohotka Kine 1970. godine.
17:54
the income distribution of the United States, 1970.
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Distribucija dohotka Sjedinjenih Država, 1970.
17:59
Almost no overlap. Almost no overlap. And what has happened?
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Skoro da i nema preklapanja. Skoro da i nema. I što se dogodilo?
18:03
What has happened is this: that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer,
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Što se dogodilo je sljedeće: Kina raste, ne vlada više takva jednakost,
18:08
and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States.
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i to se pojavljuje ovdje, nad Sjedinjenim Državama.
18:12
Almost like a ghost, isn't it, huh?
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Skoro kao duh, zar ne?
18:14
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
18:16
It's pretty scary. But I think it's very important to have all this information.
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Ovo je zastrašujuće. Ali mislim da je vrlo važno da imamo sve te informacije.
18:26
We need really to see it. And instead of looking at this,
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Stvarno ih moramo vidjeti. I umjesto da gledamo ovo,
18:32
I would like to end up by showing the Internet users per 1,000.
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htio bih završiti s prikazom korisnika Interneta na 1.000 stanovnika.
18:37
In this software, we access about 500 variables from all the countries quite easily.
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Ovim programom imamo lak pristup do 500 varijabli iz svih zemalja.
18:42
It takes some time to change for this,
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Treba nešto vremena da ovo promijenimo,
18:46
but on the axises, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.
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ali na osima možete lako dobiti svaku varijablu koju želite.
18:51
And the thing would be to get up the databases free,
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I bitno bi bilo objaviti baze podataka besplatno,
18:56
to get them searchable, and with a second click, to get them
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prilagoditi ih pretraživanju, i drugim klikom, pretvoriti ih
18:59
into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.
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u grafički oblik u kojem ih smjesta možemo razumjeti.
19:04
Now, statisticians doesn't like it, because they say that this
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Sad, statističari to ne vole jer kažu da ovo
19:07
will not show the reality; we have to have statistical, analytical methods.
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ne prikazuje stvarnost; moramo rabiti statističke, analitičke metode.
19:16
But this is hypothesis-generating.
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Ali to je stvaranje hipoteza.
19:19
I end now with the world. There, the Internet is coming.
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Završavam sa svijetom. Ovdje, dolazi Internet.
19:23
The number of Internet users are going up like this. This is the GDP per capita.
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Broj Internet korisnika raste ovako. Ovo je BDP po stanovniku.
19:27
And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly, how well
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I ovo je nova tehnologija što dolazi, ali se zadivljujuće
19:32
it fits to the economy of the countries. That's why the 100 dollar
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dobro uklapa u gospodarstvo zemalja. Evo zašto će računalo
19:37
computer will be so important. But it's a nice tendency.
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od 100 dolara biti tako važno. No, trend je lijep.
19:40
It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it? These countries
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Izgleda kao da se svijet splošćuje, zar ne? Ove zemlje
19:43
are lifting more than the economy and will be very interesting
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se dižu brže od ekonomije i bit će zanimljivo
19:46
to follow this over the year, as I would like you to be able to do
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promatrati ovo tijekom godine kako bih ja volio da možete
19:50
with all the publicly funded data. Thank you very much.
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com