TED2006
Hans Rosling: The best stats you've ever seen
汉斯罗斯林用前所未有的好方法诠释数字统计
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你肯定没有看过这样的数据演示。如解说体育比赛实况一般的生动与紧张，统计大师汉斯罗斯林将颠覆所谓 “发展中国家” 这一理念。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development
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大约在十年前， 我担当起
00:29
to Swedish undergraduate students. That was after having spent
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给瑞典大学生讲授全球发展的任务
00:33
about 20 years together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa,
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之前的20年我一直在非洲研究饥饿问题
00:37
so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.
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所以大家以为我对世界有些了解
00:41
And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,
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在我们的卡罗林斯卡医学院
00:46
an undergraduate course called Global Health. But when you get
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我开设了一门本科生课程“全球健康”
00:50
that opportunity, you get a little nervous. I thought, these students
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刚开课的时候我还有些紧张
00:53
coming to us actually have the highest grade you can get
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因为来听课的都是瑞典大学的优等生
00:56
in Swedish college systems -- so, I thought, maybe they know everything
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他们或许早已了解我准备教的内容
00:59
I'm going to teach them about. So I did a pre-test when they came.
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于是在第一堂课里，我作了一个小测试
01:03
And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:
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其中有一道题让我受益匪浅
01:06
"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"
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下列5对国家中，哪一个的儿童死亡率高于另一个？
01:10
And I put them together, so that in each pair of country,
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我所选择的配对国家都是
01:14
one has twice the child mortality of the other. And this means that
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一个的儿童死亡率是另一个的两倍,因为数据差距很大
01:19
it's much bigger a difference than the uncertainty of the data.
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因此数据本身的不确定性可以忽略不计
01:24
I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,
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今天我不会拿这来考大家
01:26
which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.
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土耳其，波兰，俄罗斯，巴基斯坦和南非
01:31
And these were the results of the Swedish students. I did it so I got
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这是瑞典学生的测验结果
01:34
the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow, and I got happy,
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让我高兴的是
01:37
of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible. That means that
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5题中平均答对的只有1.8题
01:41
there was a place for a professor of international health --
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我这个教授还有这门课
01:44
(Laughter) and for my course.
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因此都有了存在的必要
01:46
But one late night, when I was compiling the report
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但后来有天深夜，当我写总结报告的时候
01:50
I really realized my discovery. I have shown
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我突然有了新的发现
01:54
that Swedish top students know statistically significantly less
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瑞典大学的优等生们对世界的了解
01:59
about the world than the chimpanzees.
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竟然还不如黑猩猩
02:01
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:03
Because the chimpanzee would score half right if I gave them
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因为黑猩猩们至少能蒙对一半
02:07
two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey. They would be right half of the cases.
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在两个选项旁边各放一根香蕉，就有一半的几率答对。
02:10
But the students are not there. The problem for me was not ignorance;
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这些优等生们却做不到。这不是由于知识缺乏
02:14
it was preconceived ideas.
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而是他们先入为主的错误理念
02:17
I did also an unethical study of the professors of the Karolinska Institute
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我还把这个测试拿去 给卡罗林斯卡学院的教授们做
02:21
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:22
-- that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
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他们每年负责颁发诺贝尔医学奖
02:24
and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.
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结果教授们和黑猩猩半斤八两
02:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:29
This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,
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我意识到很有必要交流一下这个问题
02:33
because the data of what's happening in the world
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因为多数人并不知道
02:36
and the child health of every country is very well aware.
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世界各国的儿童健康的改善
02:39
We did this software which displays it like this: every bubble here is a country.
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我们作了一个软件，每一个小球代表一个国家
02:44
This country over here is China. This is India.
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这个是中国，这个是印度
02:50
The size of the bubble is the population, and on this axis here I put fertility rate.
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小球的尺寸代表该国的人口，X轴是生育率
02:56
Because my students, what they said
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我曾问过学生们
02:59
when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,
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如果让你们来审视这个世界
03:01
"What do you really think about the world?"
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你们的真实想法是什么
03:03
Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.
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其实这些教科书上都是丁丁历险记（带有殖民主义思想的漫画）的人物
03:07
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:08
And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'
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学生们回答 世界是由“我们和他们”组成的
03:11
And we is Western world and them is Third World."
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“我们”指西方世界 “他们”指第三世界
03:14
"And what do you mean with Western world?" I said.
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我又问 “什么是西方世界？”
03:17
"Well, that's long life and small family, and Third World is short life and large family."
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“西方世界寿命长且家庭小； 第三世界寿命短而家庭大。”
03:22
So this is what I could display here. I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman:
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那么一起来看看 X轴是生育率，每个妇女的育儿数
03:28
one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman.
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从每人1，2，3，4胎，到8胎
03:32
We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about -- on the size of families in all countries.
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我们有1962年之后的各国家庭大小的可靠数据
03:38
The error margin is narrow. Here I put life expectancy at birth,
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数据误差相当小。Y轴是平均寿命
03:41
from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years.
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从30岁到70岁不等
03:45
And 1962, there was really a group of countries here
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1962年的时候 的确有一群国家在上面
03:48
that was industrialized countries, and they had small families and long lives.
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这些是发达国家，他们家庭小，寿命长
03:53
And these were the developing countries:
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而这些则是发展中国家
03:55
they had large families and they had relatively short lives.
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他们家庭大，寿命也相对短些
03:58
Now what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.
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从1962年到今天 世界有什么变化吗？
04:02
Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries?
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我们来看看 学生们正确吗？国家还是分为2类吗?
04:06
Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?
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或者发展中国家的家庭变小（这些小球）移动到了左边?
04:09
Or have they got longer lives and live up there?
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或者发展中国家人们的寿命变长（这些小球）移动到了上面?
04:11
Let's see. We stopped the world then. This is all U.N. statistics
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这些数据都来自于联合国
04:14
that have been available. Here we go. Can you see there?
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大家看到没有？
04:17
It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.
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这个是中国，他们在往上移动，健康状况不断改善
04:20
All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.
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这些绿色的拉丁美洲国家 正朝向小家庭的方向移动
04:23
Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,
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这些黄色的小球是阿拉伯国家
04:26
and they get larger families, but they -- no, longer life, but not larger families.
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寿命在变长但家庭规模不变
04:30
The Africans are the green down here. They still remain here.
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非洲国家是下面的绿球，他们一直在下面
04:33
This is India. Indonesia's moving on pretty fast.
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这个是印度 印度尼西亚的移动速度非常快
04:36
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:37
And in the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries there.
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80年代的时候 孟加拉国仍然和非洲国家在一起
04:40
But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s:
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但是80年代的奇迹发生在孟加拉国
04:43
the imams start to promote family planning.
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妈妈们开始宣传和普及计划生育
04:46
They move up into that corner. And in '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic
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他们向左上角移动 90年代恐怖的艾滋病流行
04:51
that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries
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导致非洲国家的平均寿命缩短
04:54
and all the rest of them move up into the corner,
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而其他国家都向左上角移动
04:58
where we have long lives and small family, and we have a completely new world.
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大家都有了长寿命和小家庭，而世界也焕然一新了
05:02
(Applause)
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（掌声）
05:15
Let me make a comparison directly between the United States of America and Vietnam.
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现在我们对比一下美国和越南
05:20
1964: America had small families and long life;
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1964年的美国家庭小寿命长
05:25
Vietnam had large families and short lives. And this is what happens:
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越南的家庭大而寿命短。这是后来的变化
05:29
the data during the war indicate that even with all the death,
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越战时期的数据显示，尽管战争造成伤亡
05:35
there was an improvement of life expectancy. By the end of the year,
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越南人的平均寿命仍有提高
05:38
the family planning started in Vietnam and they went for smaller families.
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70年代末期 越南的计划生育减小了家庭规模
05:41
And the United States up there is getting for longer life,
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美国人的平均寿命也在延长
05:44
keeping family size. And in the '80s now,
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而家庭规模不变
05:47
they give up communist planning and they go for market economy,
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到了90年代 越南由计划经济转为市场经济
05:50
and it moves faster even than social life. And today, we have
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其经济发展的速度超过了社会的发展
05:54
in Vietnam the same life expectancy and the same family size
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今天（2003）越南人的平均寿命和家庭规模
05:59
here in Vietnam, 2003, as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.
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已经和越战结束时（1974）的美国一样
06:06
I think we all -- if we don't look in the data --
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如果没有看到这些数据的话
06:10
we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia, which was
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我们会低估了亚洲的巨大变化
06:14
in social change before we saw the economical change.
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这些超前于经济发展的社会变革
06:18
Let's move over to another way here in which we could display
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下面我们换个视角
06:23
the distribution in the world of the income. This is the world distribution of income of people.
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X轴显示了全世界的收入分布
06:30
One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.
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每天收入1美元，10美元和100美元
06:35
There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.
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富与穷之间的鸿沟几乎消失了，简直是个奇迹
06:39
There's a little hump here. But there are people all the way.
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这里还有一个很小的峰，但总体上是均数分布的
06:44
And if we look where the income ends up -- the income --
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我们看看收入的分配情况
06:48
this is 100 percent the world's annual income. And the richest 20 percent,
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这代表全世界人民每年的全部收入
06:54
they take out of that about 74 percent. And the poorest 20 percent,
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最富有的20%那部分人
得到了全部收入的74%
得到了全部收入的74%
07:01
they take about two percent. And this shows that the concept
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最贫穷的20%那部分人 只得到2%
07:06
of developing countries is extremely doubtful. We think about aid, like
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可见发展中国家的理念 极其的不确切
07:10
these people here giving aid to these people here. But in the middle,
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我们总以为最富的人应该给最穷的人提供援助
07:15
we have most the world population, and they have now 24 percent of the income.
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其实中间这部分才是世界人口的主体 而他们仅得到全部收入的24%
07:19
We heard it in other forms. And who are these?
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这是个老问题了，中间这些人是谁？
07:23
Where are the different countries? I can show you Africa.
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他们在哪些国家？先看非洲
07:27
This is Africa. 10 percent the world population, most in poverty.
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非洲占世界人口的十分之一，多数是穷人
07:32
This is OECD. The rich country. The country club of the U.N.
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这个代表富裕的经合组织成员国，联合国俱乐部的会员
07:37
And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
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他们在这边，很小一部分与非洲重叠
07:42
And this is Latin America. It has everything on this Earth,
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这是拉丁美洲，他们可以代表全世界
07:45
from the poorest to the richest, in Latin America.
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从最贫穷到最富有的人都在那里
07:48
And on top of that, we can put East Europe, we can put East Asia,
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再往上是东欧，东亚还有南亚
07:53
and we put South Asia. And how did it look like if we go back in time,
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过去是什么样子的呢？
07:58
to about 1970? Then there was more of a hump.
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如果我们回到1970年，这里有一个明显的峰
08:03
And we have most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.
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这些绝对贫困的人群中 大多数是亚洲人
08:07
The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia. And if I now let the world move forward,
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那时世界的问题就在于亚洲的贫穷
08:14
you will see that while population increase, there are
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后来随着人口的增长
08:17
hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty and some others
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数以亿计的亚洲人摆脱了贫困
08:20
getting into poverty, and this is the pattern we have today.
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另外一些人却陷入贫穷，这就是今天的世界
08:23
And the best projection from the World Bank is that this will happen,
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而这是世界银行对未来最乐观的预测
08:27
and we will not have a divided world. We'll have most people in the middle.
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世界再也不是贫富悬殊的，大多数人拥有中等的收入
08:31
Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,
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当然这是指数幂分布的图
08:33
but our concept of economy is growth with percent. We look upon it
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因为经济的增长是用百分比来衡量的
08:38
as a possibility of percentile increase. If I change this, and I take
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我们用百分比的变化来评估经济增长
08:44
GDP per capita instead of family income, and I turn these
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下面把X轴改为人均国内生产总值
08:48
individual data into regional data of gross domestic product,
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个人的数据转为各大洲的数据
08:54
and I take the regions down here, the size of the bubble is still the population.
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球的大小代表人口的多少
08:58
And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
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这个是经合组织国家，这是撒哈拉以南非洲
09:01
and we take off the Arab states there,
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我们把阿拉伯国家
09:04
coming both from Africa and from Asia, and we put them separately,
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从非洲和亚洲单独分出来
09:08
and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,
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然后把X轴延伸一下 再加上一个新的维度
09:13
by adding the social values there, child survival.
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一个有社会价值的参数 儿童生存率
09:16
Now I have money on that axis, and I have the possibility of children to survive there.
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X轴代表经济 Y轴显示儿童存活的比率
09:21
In some countries, 99.7 percent of children survive to five years of age;
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一些国家的99.7%的小孩 可以活到5岁以上
09:25
others, only 70. And here it seems there is a gap
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另一些国家只有70% 很明显可以看到
09:29
between OECD, Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
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经合组织成员国 和拉丁美洲，东欧，东亚
09:33
Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
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阿拉伯国家，南亚 以及撒哈拉以南非洲地区的差距
09:37
The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.
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儿童生存率和经济之间 联系非常紧密
09:42
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa. Health is there and better health is up there.
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下面把撒哈拉以南非洲地区 分解成各个国家
09:50
I can go here and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
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分布靠上边的国家 拥有更高的健康水平
09:55
And when it burst, the size of its country bubble is the size of the population.
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撒哈拉以南的非洲各国是如此分布的 小球的尺寸代表该国人口
10:00
Sierra Leone down there. Mauritius is up there. Mauritius was the first country
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塞拉里昂在下边 毛里求斯在上边
10:04
to get away with trade barriers, and they could sell their sugar --
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毛里求斯是第一个消除了贸易壁垒的国家
10:08
they could sell their textiles -- on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.
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他们的蔗糖和纺织品的贸易协定 与欧洲和北美一样
10:13
There's a huge difference between Africa. And Ghana is here in the middle.
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但是非洲内部的差异非常巨大 加纳在中部
10:17
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
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塞拉里昂需要人道主义援助
10:20
Here in Uganda, development aid. Here, time to invest; there,
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乌干达则需要发展援助 在加纳可以进行投资了
10:25
you can go for a holiday. It's a tremendous variation
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毛里求斯则可以去度假 非洲内部的差异之大确实很惊人
10:28
within Africa which we rarely often make -- that it's equal everything.
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而我们却总以为 非洲国家都差不多
10:33
I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle.
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下面分解南亚各国 印度是中间的蓝色大球
10:37
But a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
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而斯里兰卡和阿富汗有着巨大差异
10:41
I can split Arab states. How are they? Same climate, same culture,
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把阿拉伯世界分解来看 尽管是相同的气候，相同的文化
10:45
same religion -- huge difference. Even between neighbors.
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相同的宗教 却有巨大的差异
10:49
Yemen, civil war. United Arab Emirate, money which was quite equally and well used.
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也门在打内战 邻国阿联酋却躺在钱堆里
10:54
Not as the myth is. And that includes all the children of the foreign workers who are in the country.
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而且（阿联酋的）儿童健康数据 包含了所有的外籍劳工
11:01
Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.
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大家总说数据不准确 数据其实比我们想象的好很多
11:06
There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:
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数据是有误差
11:08
Cambodia, Singapore. The differences are much bigger
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但柬埔寨和新加坡的差距肯定远大于数据的误差
11:11
than the weakness of the data. East Europe:
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再看东欧
11:14
Soviet economy for a long time, but they come out after 10 years
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在苏联经济模式下发展了多年 但在过去10年
11:20
very, very differently. And there is Latin America.
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却经历了巨大的变化
11:23
Today, we don't have to go to Cuba to find a healthy country in Latin America.
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当今的拉丁美洲 古巴再也不是唯一的健康国家了
11:27
Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.
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几年后智利的儿童死亡率将低于古巴
11:32
And here we have high-income countries in the OECD.
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这些是经合组织成员国
11:35
And we get the whole pattern here of the world,
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这里显示的就是我们的世界
11:39
which is more or less like this. And if we look at it,
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大概就是这样的情形 如果我们回到过去
11:44
how it looks -- the world, in 1960, it starts to move. 1960.
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看看世界是怎样的 从1960年开始
11:50
This is Mao Tse-tung. He brought health to China. And then he died.
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1960年（中国有）毛泽东 他给中国带来了健康
11:53
And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China, and brought them into the mainstream again.
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他去世后邓小平给中国带来了金钱 同时把中国带回到世界的主流当中
11:58
And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,
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其他国家的移动方向也不尽相同
12:02
so it's sort of difficult to get
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很难找出哪个国家
12:06
an example country which shows the pattern of the world.
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能代表全世界的发展模式
12:11
But I would like to bring you back to about here at 1960.
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我们回到1960年做个比较
12:17
I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one, with Brazil,
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先选中韩国（左边的小黄球）巴西（右边的黄绿色大球）
12:27
which is this one. The label went away for me here. And I would like to compare Uganda,
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乌干达（Y轴上面的小红球）
12:32
which is there. And I can run it forward, like this.
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随着时间的推移，我们看到
12:37
And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,
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韩国的发展速度非常非常快
12:46
whereas Brazil is much slower.
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巴西就慢得多
12:49
And if we move back again, here, and we put on trails on them, like this,
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我们再回到过去 给每个球画出运动的轨迹
12:55
you can see again that the speed of development
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可以看到，发展速度的差距非常大
12:59
is very, very different, and the countries are moving more or less
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虽然各国的经济和健康 发展的轨迹大同小异
13:05
in the same rate as money and health, but it seems you can move
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但是健康水平起点较高的国家
13:09
much faster if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.
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发展速度远超过经济水平起点高的
13:14
And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirate.
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为了说明这一点 我们看看阿联酋
13:18
They came from here, a mineral country. They cached all the oil;
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他们从这里出发 一个资源型国家
13:21
they got all the money; but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.
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他们靠石油大把赚钱 但健康绝不是超市里的货物
13:25
You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.
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需要卫生方面的投资 需要提高儿童的教育水平
13:29
You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.
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需要培训卫生工作者 还要教育民众
13:32
And Sheikh Sayed did that in a fairly good way.
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Sheikh Sayed 干的非常漂亮
13:35
In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.
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尽管油价下跌了 他仍改善了阿联酋的健康
13:39
So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,
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这里我们可以看到 世界发展的主流
13:43
where all countries tend to use their money
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各国对资金的分配和使用
13:45
better than they used in the past. Now, this is, more or less,
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都比过去合理的多
13:50
if you look at the average data of the countries -- they are like this.
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这里大家看到各国的数据 基本上都是平均数
13:57
Now that's dangerous, to use average data, because there is such a lot
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但是用平均数可能会很危险 因为国家内部也存在很大的差异
14:02
of difference within countries. So if I go and look here, we can see
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我们看这里
14:08
that Uganda today is where South Korea was 1960. If I split Uganda,
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今天的乌干达和1960年的韩国差不多
14:14
there's quite a difference within Uganda. These are the quintiles of Uganda.
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如果把乌干达分解开 可以看到内部的明显差异
14:19
The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.
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乌干达最富有的20%在右边
14:22
The poorest are down there. If I split South Africa, it's like this.
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最贫穷的在左下边 如果把南非分解开
14:26
And if I go down and look at Niger, where there was such a terrible famine,
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尼日在下边 他们刚遭受一场恐怖的饥荒
14:31
lastly, it's like this. The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,
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最贫穷的20%的尼日人在最左边
14:36
and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,
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而最富有的20%的南非人在最右边
14:39
and yet we tend to discuss on what solutions there should be in Africa.
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今天我们仍然在讨论 什么方案能解决非洲的问题
14:44
Everything in this world exists in Africa. And you can't
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世界上所有的问题非洲都有
14:47
discuss universal access to HIV [medicine] for that quintile up here
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我们不可能讨论出一套通用方案 既能解决这些地方的艾滋病问题
14:51
with the same strategy as down here. The improvement of the world
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同时也适用于这些地方
14:55
must be highly contextualized, and it's not relevant to have it
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世界的发展一定要因地制宜来分析
15:00
on regional level. We must be much more detailed.
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仅从各大洲的水平上来分析是不够的
15:03
We find that students get very excited when they can use this.
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当学生们接触到这个软件的时候 他们都非常兴奋
15:07
And even more policy makers and the corporate sectors would like to see
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此外，政策制定者，各企业部门 都会想知道世界的变化
15:12
how the world is changing. Now, why doesn't this take place?
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但为什么大家仍然不知道（世界的变化）
15:16
Why are we not using the data we have? We have data in the United Nations,
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为什么我们无法使用已知的数据呢
15:20
in the national statistical agencies
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我们的联合国，国家统计部门
15:22
and in universities and other non-governmental organizations.
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学院还有非政府组织都拥有数据
15:26
Because the data is hidden down in the databases.
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但数据被隐藏在底层的数据库里
15:28
And the public is there, and the Internet is there, but we have still not used it effectively.
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而公众在上面（太阳）互联网在这里（地平线）并未得到有效的使用
15:33
All that information we saw changing in the world
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之前我们看到的 关于世界变化的信息
15:36
does not include publicly-funded statistics. There are some web pages
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并不包括公众资助的统计数据
15:40
like this, you know, but they take some nourishment down from the databases,
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的确有一些网站依靠数据库的营养而存在着
15:46
but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.
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但这是要收费的 还有愚蠢的密码和讨厌的统计表格
15:51
(Laughter) (Applause)
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（笑声，掌声）
15:54
And this won't work. So what is needed? We have the databases.
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这个是行不通的 我们需要什么？
15:58
It's not the new database you need. We have wonderful design tools,
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数据库是现成的 不需要新的数据库
16:02
and more and more are added up here. So we started
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我们有很好的视觉软件 还将有更多的问世
16:05
a nonprofit venture which we called -- linking data to design --
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于是我们成立了一个非营利机构
16:10
we call it Gapminder, from the London underground, where they warn you,
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我们称之为“数据与图样的联结” - Gapminder
16:13
"mind the gap." So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
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灵感来自伦敦地铁（他们提醒乘客“小心列车与站台间的缝隙”）
16:16
And we started to write software which could link the data like this.
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而且我们制作了一个软件 把数据和图样联结起来
16:20
And it wasn't that difficult. It took some person years, and we have produced animations.
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这个并不难 需要几个人花几年时间
16:26
You can take a data set and put it there.
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建立数据库后大家就能看到动画
16:28
We are liberating U.N. data, some few U.N. organization.
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我们正尝试解放联合国的数据库
16:33
Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world,
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少数联合国机构和几个国家已经开放了数据库
16:37
but what we really need is, of course, a search function.
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但我们最需要的是数据搜索引擎
16:40
A search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format
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依靠搜索引擎 我们先把原始数据复制成可搜索的格式
16:45
and get it out in the world. And what do we hear when we go around?
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再把数据发布到全世界 外界对这个设想的反应如何呢？
16:48
I've done anthropology on the main statistical units. Everyone says,
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我尝试跟几个大型统计机构交涉
16:53
"It's impossible. This can't be done. Our information is so peculiar
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所有人都说这是不可能的 “这行不通，我们的信息很独特，
16:57
in detail, so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.
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不可能像其它数据那样检索的出来
17:00
We cannot give the data free to the students, free to the entrepreneurs of the world."
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我们也不能免费把数据开放 给全世界的学生们和企业部门使用。”
17:05
But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?
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但这正是我们期望看到的，不是吗？
17:08
The publicly-funded data is down here.
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下边是公众资助采集的数据
17:11
And we would like flowers to grow out on the Net.
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我们希望互联网上长出美丽的花朵
17:14
And one of the crucial points is to make them searchable, and then people can use
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关键的一步 是让这些数据可被搜索到
17:19
the different design tool to animate it there.
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并借助软件实现动画的演示
17:21
And I have a pretty good news for you. I have a good news that the present,
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我有个很好的消息要告诉大家
17:26
new Head of U.N. Statistics, he doesn't say it's impossible.
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新上任的联合国统计部门的领导 并没有说这是不可能的
17:30
He only says, "We can't do it."
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他只说“我们不能这么做。”
17:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:36
And that's a quite clever guy, huh?
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他很聪明吧
17:38
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
17:40
So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.
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未来几年中 我们将会看到数据库的变化
17:44
We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.
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我们会用全新的视角 来看收入的分配
17:48
This is the income distribution of China, 1970.
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这是1970年中国的收入分配
17:54
the income distribution of the United States, 1970.
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这是1970年美国的收入分配
17:59
Almost no overlap. Almost no overlap. And what has happened?
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几乎没有重叠 后来呢？
18:03
What has happened is this: that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer,
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中国在增长，再也不像以前那样平等了
18:08
and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States.
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它出现在右边，俯视着美国
18:12
Almost like a ghost, isn't it, huh?
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是不是像个鬼一样
18:14
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
18:16
It's pretty scary. But I think it's very important to have all this information.
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很吓人吧 我认为这些信息很重要
18:26
We need really to see it. And instead of looking at this,
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大家很有必要看到这些
18:32
I would like to end up by showing the Internet users per 1,000.
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另外我最后要给大家展示 每千人中的网民数量
18:37
In this software, we access about 500 variables from all the countries quite easily.
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这个软件能让我们很容易的看到 全球各国的近500个参数
18:42
It takes some time to change for this,
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通过点击坐标轴
18:46
but on the axises, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.
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你能轻易改变参数的设定
18:51
And the thing would be to get up the databases free,
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我们的初衷是 数据免费下载且易于查找
18:56
to get them searchable, and with a second click, to get them
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然后再点一下鼠标 数据就成为图表的形式
18:59
into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.
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那样大家就可以 立刻看明白这些数据了
19:04
Now, statisticians doesn't like it, because they say that this
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统计学家们不喜欢这样子
19:07
will not show the reality; we have to have statistical, analytical methods.
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他们认为这不能准确地反映事实 传统的统计和分析方法是不能取代的
19:16
But this is hypothesis-generating.
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但数据动画可以帮助提出假说
19:19
I end now with the world. There, the Internet is coming.
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最后我们看一下当今的互联网世界
19:23
The number of Internet users are going up like this. This is the GDP per capita.
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网民数量不断向上攀升（X轴是）人均国民生产总值
19:27
And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly, how well
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互联网是一项新技术 但令人惊讶的是
19:32
it fits to the economy of the countries. That's why the 100 dollar
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它的普及和国家的经济水平极其一致
19:37
computer will be so important. But it's a nice tendency.
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这也解释了100美元电脑的重要性 但这是很好的趋势
19:40
It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it? These countries
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世界各国的差距将会缩小，不是吗
19:43
are lifting more than the economy and will be very interesting
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这些国家的互联网普及速度 超过了经济的发展速度
19:46
to follow this over the year, as I would like you to be able to do
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我也希望大家都可以 自由使用公众资助采集的数据
19:50
with all the publicly funded data. Thank you very much.
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非常感谢！
19:53
(Applause)
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(掌声）
Reviewed by Jenny Yang
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com