TED2006
Robert Wright: Progress is not a zero-sum game
Robert Wright despre optimism
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Autorul Robert Wright explica "Insumarea Ne-Nula" -- reteaua de destine inlantuite si cooperare care ne-a condus evolutia pana in acest punct -- si despre cum o putem folosi astazi pentru a salva umanitatea.
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopher
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
The best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I've got apparently 18 minutes
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Se pare ca am la dispozitie 18 minute
00:27
to convince you that history has a direction, an arrow;
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sa va conving ca istoria are o directie - o sageata.
00:30
that in some fundamental sense, it's good;
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Ca la modul absolut este un lucru bun,
00:33
that the arrow points to something positive.
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ca sageata arata catre ceva pozitiv.
00:36
Now, when the TED people first approached me about giving this upbeat talk --
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Cand cei de la TED m-au abordat pentru a tine un discurs optimist
00:40
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
00:41
-- that was before the cartoon of Muhammad had triggered global rioting.
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caricatura lui Muhammad inca nu declansase revolte la nivel global.
00:47
It was before the avian flu had reached Europe.
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Gripa aviara inca nu ajunsese in Europa.
00:49
It was before Hamas had won the Palestinian election,
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Gruparea Hamas nu castigase inca alegerile palestiniene,
00:51
eliciting various counter-measures by Israel.
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provocand diverse contramasuri ale Israelului.
00:55
And to be honest, if I had known when I was asked to give this upbeat talk
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Si sa fiu sincer, daca stiam cand am fost rugat sa tin discursul asta voios
00:59
that even as I was giving the upbeat talk,
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ca, chiar atunci cand voi tine discursul voios,
01:02
the apocalypse would be unfolding --
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apocalipsa se va desfasura,
01:05
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
01:06
-- I might have said, "Is it okay if I talk about something else?"
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probabil ca as fi raspuns "E ok daca vorbesc despre altceva?"
01:10
But I didn't, OK. So we're here. I'll do what I can. I'll do what I can.
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Dar nu am facut-o, asa ca iata-ne. O sa fac tot ce pot. O sa fac tot ce pot.
01:16
I've got to warn you:
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Trebuie sa va avertizez:
01:18
the sense in which my worldview is upbeat has always been kind of subtle,
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optimismul meu despre lume in general a fost mereu destul de subtil,
01:25
sometimes even elusive.
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uneori chiar evaziv.
01:27
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
01:28
The sense in which I can be uplifting and inspiring --
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Felul in care pot sa fiu inaltator si inspirational -
01:31
I mean, there's always been a kind of a certain grim dimension
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a existat mereu o anumita dimensiune macabra
01:34
to the way I try to uplift, so if grim inspiration --
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in felul in care incerc sa inalt sufleteste, asa ca daca inspiratia macabra
01:38
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
01:39
-- if grim inspiration is not a contradiction in terms, that is, I'm afraid,
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daca inspirarea macabra nu este o contradictie in termeni, imi e teama ca asta este
01:43
the most you can hope for. OK, today -- that's if I succeed.
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maximul la care puteti spera astazi, asta daca imi iese.
01:47
I'll see what I can do. OK?
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O sa vad ce pot face, ok?
01:49
Now, in one sense,
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Intr-un fel
01:51
the claim that history has a direction is not that controversial.
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afirmatia ca istoria are o directie nu este atat de controversata.
01:54
If you're just talking about social structure,
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Daca ne referim doar la structura sociala,
01:57
OK, clearly that's gotten more complex
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de acord, categoric a devenit mai complexa
01:59
a little over the last 10,000 years -- has reached higher and higher levels.
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in ultimii putin peste 10.000 de ani, atingand nivele din ce in ce mai inalte.
02:02
And in fact, that's actually sustaining
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Si, de fapt, intretine
02:04
a long-standing trend that predates human beings, OK,
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o tendinta veche, care precede fiintele umane,
02:08
that biological evolution was doing for us.
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care spune ca evolutia biologica "facea" pentru noi.
02:11
Because what happened in the beginning, this stuff encases itself in a cell,
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Pentru ca ce s-a intamplat la inceput, treaba asta statea inchisa intr-o celula,
02:16
then cells start hanging out together in societies.
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apoi celulele au inceput sa se grupeze in societati.
02:19
Eventually they get so close, they form multicellular organisms,
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S-au apropiat intr-atat incat au format organisme multicelulare,
02:22
then you get complex multicellular organisms; they form societies.
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apoi au aparut organismele multicelulare complexe; si acestea au format societati.
02:27
But then at some point, one of these multicellular organisms
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Dar la un moment dat, unul dintre aceste organisme multicelulare
02:30
does something completely amazing with this stuff, which is
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face ceva absolut uluitor cu treaba asta, si anume
02:33
it launches a whole second kind of evolution: cultural evolution.
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lanseaza o a doua evolutie: evolutia culturala.
02:38
And amazingly, that evolution sustains the trajectory
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Si in mod surprinzator, aceasta evolutie sustine traiectoria
02:41
that biological evolution had established toward greater complexity.
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pe care evolutia biologica a stabilit-o inspre o complexitate si mai mare.
02:46
By cultural evolution we mean the evolution of ideas.
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Prin evolutie culturala intelegem evolutia ideilor.
02:49
A lot of you have heard the term "memes." The evolution of technology,
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Multi dintre voi au auzit termenul "memes". Evolutia tehnologiei,
02:52
I pay a lot of attention to, so, you know,
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la care sunt foarte atent, stiti voi,
02:54
one of the first things you got was a little hand axe.
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unul dintre primele lucruri pe care le-am avut a fost un topor de mana.
02:58
Generations go by, somebody says, hey, why don't we put it on a stick?
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Trec generatii, cineva spune, hei! de ce sa nu il punem pe un bat?
03:03
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
03:06
Just absolutely delights the little ones.
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Ii incanta pe cei mici.
03:09
Next best thing to a video game.
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Cea mai tare chestie dupa un joc video.
03:11
This may not seem to impress,
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Nu pare sa impresioneze,
03:13
but technological evolution is progressive, so another 10, 20,000 years,
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dar evolutia tehnologica este progresiva, astfel, inca 10, 20.000 de ani,
03:17
and armaments technology takes you here.
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si tehnica armamentului ne aduce aici.
03:19
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
03:20
Impressive. And the rate of technological evolution speeds up,
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Impresionant. Si rata evolutiei tehnologice accelereaza,
03:24
so a mere quarter of a century after this, you get this, OK.
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astfel incat, doar un sfert de secol mai tarziu, avem de-a face cu asta.
03:28
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
03:30
And this.
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Si cu asta.
03:32
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
03:33
I'm sorry -- it was a cheap laugh, but I wanted to find a way
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Imi pare rau -- a fost o gluma proasta, dar am incercat sa gasesc o modalitate
03:36
to transition back to this idea of the unfolding apocalypse,
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de a ma intoarce la ideea de apocalipsa in desfasurare,
03:39
and I thought that might do it.
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si m-am gandit ca asta o sa ajute.
03:41
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
03:48
So, what threatens to happen with this unfolding apocalypse
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Ok. Deci, ce amenintare poate aparea odata cu apocalipsa asta?
03:53
is the collapse of global social organization.
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Este vorba despre colapsul organizarii sociale globale.
03:57
Now, first let me remind you how much work it took to get us where we are,
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Mai intai va rog sa ma lasati sa va aduc aminte de cata munca a fost nevoie sa ajungem unde suntem,
04:00
to be on the brink of true global social organization.
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sa fim in pragul organizarii sociale globale autentice.
04:03
Originally, you had the most complex societies, the hunter-gatherer village.
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La inceput, am avut societatile complexe, satul de vanatori-culegatori.
04:09
Stonehenge is the remnant of a chiefdom,
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Stonehange este ramasita domniei unui sef,
04:11
which is what you get with the invention of agriculture: multi-village polity
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ceea ce a rezultat odata cu inventarea agriculturii: statul multi-satesc
04:14
with centralized rule.
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cu conducere centralizata.
04:17
With the invention of writing, you start getting cities. This is blurry. I kind of like that
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Odata cu aparitie scrisului apar orasele. Asta e neclara. Imi cam place
04:22
because it makes it look like a one-celled organism and reminds you
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pentru ca seamana cu un organism monocelular si ne aduce aminte
04:25
how many levels organic organization has already moved through
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prin cate niveluri a trecut deja organizarea organica
04:29
to get to this point. And then you get to, you know, you get empires.
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pentru a ajunge in ascest punct. Apoi au venit, dupa cum stiti, imperiile.
04:35
I want to stress, you know, social organization can transcend political bounds.
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As vrea sa subliniez ca organizarea sociala poate transcede berierele politice.
04:39
This is the Silk Road connecting the Chinese Empire and the Roman Empire.
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Acesta este Drumul Matasii care uneste Imperiul Chinez cu cel Roman.
04:43
So you had social complexity spanning the whole continent,
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Deci avem de-a face cu complexitatea sociala care se intinde pe tot continentul
04:46
even if no polity did similarly. Today, you've got nation states.
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cu toate ca nicio organizare politica nu a reusit ceva similar. Astazi avem statele nationale.
04:51
Point is: there's obviously collaboration and organization going on
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Ideea este ca, in mod evident, exista o colaborare si o organizare
04:54
beyond national bounds.
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dincolo de granitele nationale.
04:56
This is actually just a picture of the earth at night,
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Aceasta este o fotografie a Pamantului noaptea,
04:59
and I'm just putting it up because I think it's pretty.
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pe care v-o arat deoarece mi se pare draguta.
05:01
Does kind of convey the sense that this is an integrated system.
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Conduce intr-un fel la idea ca avem de-a face cu un sistem integrat.
05:06
Now, I explained this growth of complexity by reference to something
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Ok. Am explicat pana acum aceasta crestere a complexitatii prin referinta la ceva
05:12
called "non-zero sumness."
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care poarta numele de insumare ne-nula.
05:16
Assuming that a few of you did not do the assigned reading, very quickly,
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Presupunand ca sunt cativa dintre voi care nu au parcurs lectura propusa, foarte rapid,
05:21
the key idea is the distinction between zero-sum games, in which correlations
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ideea centrala este distinctia dintre jocurile cu suma-nula, in care corelarile
05:26
are inverse: always a winner and a loser.
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sunt inverse: intotdeauna exista un invingator si un invins.
05:29
Non-zero-sum games in which correlations can be positive, OK.
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In jocurile cu suma ne-nula corelarile pot fi pozitive.
05:33
So like in tennis, usually it's win-lose;
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Deci ca in tenis, de obicei avem castig-pierdere,
05:37
it always adds up to zero-zero-sum. But if you're playing doubles,
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intotdeuna se insumeaza in mod nul, dar daca joci la dublu,
05:40
the person on your side of the net, they're in the same boat as you,
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persoana de aceeasi parte a fileului este in aceeasi barca cu tine,
05:42
so you're playing a non-zero-sum game with them.
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deci jucati cu ea un joc cu suma ne-nula.
05:44
It's either for the better or for the worse, OK.
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Ori la bine, ori la rau.
05:47
A lot of forms of non-zero-sum behavior in the realm of economics and so on
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O multime de forme de comportamente cu suma ne-nula in domeniul economic, sau
05:52
in everyday life often leads to cooperation.
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in viata de zi cu zi, duc la cooperare.
05:56
The argument I make is basically that, well,
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Ceea ce vreau sa spun de fapt este ca
05:58
non-zero-sum games have always been part of life.
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jocurile cu suma ne-nula au fost parte din viata dintotdeauna.
06:00
You have them in hunter-gatherer societies,
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Le aveam in societatile de vanatori-culegatori,
06:02
but then through technological evolution, new forms of technology arise
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dar si mai apoi, prin evolutie, apar noi forme de tehnologie
06:07
that facilitate or encourage the playing of non-zero-sum games,
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care usureaza, sau incurajeaza jocurile cu suma ne-nula,
06:12
involving more people over larger territory.
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care implica mai multi oameni pe un teritoriu mai vast.
06:15
Social structure adapts to accommodate this possibility and
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Structura sociala s-a adaptat sa gazduiasca aceasta posibilitate si
06:19
to harness this productive potential, so you get cities, you know,
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sa inhame acest potential, astfel apar orasele
06:22
and you get all the non-zero-sum games you don't think about
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si avem toate jocurile cu suma ne-nula, la care nu va puteti gandi,
06:25
that are being played across the world.
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care se joaca peste tot in lume.
06:26
Like, have you ever thought when you buy a car,
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De exemplu, v-ati gandit vreodata cand ati cumparat o masina,
06:29
how many people on how many different continents contributed
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cam cati oameni, de pe cate continente, au contribuit
06:31
to the manufacture of that car? Those are people in effect
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la producerea acelei masini? Astia sunt oameni implicati
06:36
you're playing a non-zero-sum game with.
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cu care jucati un joc cu suma ne-nula.
06:38
I mean, there are certainly plenty of them around.
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Adica, in mod cert, exista o multime in jur.
06:45
Now, this sounds like an intrinsically upbeat worldview in a way,
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Acum, treaba asta suna intr-un fel a viziune pozitiva asupra lumii,
06:48
because when you think of non-zero, you think win-win, you know,
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pentru ca atunci cand va ganditi la ne-nul, va ganditi la castig-castig,
06:51
that's good. Well, there are a few reasons
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ceea ce e bine. Ei bine, exista cateva motive
06:53
that actually it's not intrinsically upbeat.
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pentru care nu e totusi o viziune pozitiva.
06:56
First of all, it can accommodate; it doesn't deny the existence
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In primul rand: nu neaga existenta
07:00
of inequality exploitation war.
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razboiului exploatarii inegalitatilor.
07:03
But there's a more fundamental reason
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Dar exista un motiv si mai important
07:05
that it's not intrinsically upbeat, because a non-zero-sum game,
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pentru care nu este pozitiva, pentru ca un joc cu suma ne-nula
07:08
all it tells you for sure is that the fortunes will be correlated for better or worse.
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ne spune in mod sigur doar ca destinele se vor corela pentru bine sau rau.
07:12
It doesn't necessarily predict a win-win outcome.
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Nu prezice neaparat un rezultat castig-castig.
07:18
So, in a way, the question is: on what grounds
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Deci, intr-un fel, intrebarea este pe ce baze
07:20
am I upbeat at all about history? And the answer is,
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sunt eu pozitiv in ceea ce priveste istoria? Si raspunsul este,
07:24
first of all, on balance I would say people have played their games
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in primul rand, la o analiza as zice ca oamenii si-au jucat jocurile
07:28
to more win-win outcomes than lose-lose outcomes. On balance,
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cu mai multe rezultate castig-castig decat esec-esec. La o privire atenta
07:32
I think history is a net positive in the non-zero-sum game department.
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cred ca istoria este un pozitiv net in zona jocurilor cu suma ne-nula.
07:38
And a testament to this is the thing that most amazes me,
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Si o marturie pentru asta este lucrul care ma uimeste cel mai tare,
07:43
most impresses me, and most uplifts me,
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ma impresioneaza cel mai tare, imi da aripi,
07:45
which is that there is a moral dimension to history;
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si anume ca exista o dimensiune morala a istoriei,
07:50
there is a moral arrow. We have seen moral progress over time.
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exista un vector moral. Am avut parte, de-a lungul timpului, de progres moral.
07:53
2,500 years ago, members of one Greek city-state
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Acum 2500 de ani, membrii unei cetati grecesti
07:57
considered members of another Greek city-state subhuman
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ii considerau pe membrii unei alte cetati grecesti ca fiind sub-umani
08:00
and treated them that way. And then this moral revolution arrived,
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si ii tratau ca atare. Si apoi a aparut revolutia morala,
08:05
and they decided that actually, no, Greeks are human beings.
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si s-a decis ca, de fapt, grecii sunt fiinte umane.
08:09
It's just the Persians who aren't fully human
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Numai persii nu sunt oameni
08:12
and don't deserve to be treated very nicely.
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si deci nu merita sa fie tratati prea frumos.
08:14
But this was progress -- you know, give them credit. And now today,
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Dar acesta a fost un progres - da-ti-le un pic de credit. Si astazi,
08:17
we've seen more progress. I think -- I hope -- most people here would say
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avem parte de si mai mult progres. Ma gandesc - sper - ca cei mai multi oameni de aici ar spune
08:20
that all people everywhere are human beings,
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ca toate persoanele de peste tot sunt fiinte umane,
08:23
deserve to be treated decently,
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merita sa fie tratate decent,
08:26
unless they do something horrendous, regardless of race or religion.
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mai putin daca fac ceva oribil, indiferent de rasa sau religie.
08:30
And you have to read your ancient history to realize what a revolution that has been,
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Si ar trebuie sa cititi istoria voastra antica pentru a realiza revolutia care a avut loc.
08:34
OK. This was not a prevalent view,
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Aceasta nu era o viziune prevalenta
08:36
few thousand years ago, and I attribute it to this non-zero-sum dynamic.
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acum cateva mii de ani, iar eu atribui asta dinamicii acestei sume ne-nule.
08:41
I think that's the reason there is as much tolerance toward nationalities,
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Cred ca de aici vine atata toleranta in ceea ce priveste nationalitatile,
08:45
ethnicities, religions as there is today. If you asked me,
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etniile, religiile, asa cum se intampla astazi. Daca ma intrebati pe mine
08:50
you know, why am I not in favor of bombing Japan,
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de ce nu as fi in favoarea bombardarii Japoniei,
08:52
well, I'm only half-joking when I say they built my car.
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ei bine, as glumi numai pe jumatate cand as spune ca ei mi-au construit masina.
08:55
We have this non-zero-sum relationship,
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Avem aceasta relatie cu suma ne-nula
08:57
and I think that does lead to a kind of a tolerance to the extent that you realize
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si cred ca aceasta duce la acea toleranta care, intr-o masura, iti permite sa intelegi
09:03
that someone else's welfare is positively correlated with yours --
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ca binele altuia se coreleaza in mod pozitiv cu al tau.
09:07
you're more likely to cut them a break.
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Esti mai dispus sa le acorzi credit.
09:09
I kind of think this is a kind of a business-class morality.
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Cred intr-un fel ca aceasta este moralitatea business-class.
09:14
Unfortunately, I don't fly trans-Atlantic business class often enough
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Din pacate, nu prea am zboruri trans-atlantice la business class
09:18
to know, or any other kind of business class really,
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ca sa stiu, sau de fapt nici un fel de zboruri la business class.
09:21
but I assume that in business class, you don't hear many expressions of, you know,
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Dar presupun ca la business class nu prea auzi exprimari
09:25
bigotry about racial groups or ethnic groups,
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bigote despre grupuri rasiale, sau grupuri etnice,
09:28
because the people who are flying trans-Atlantic business class
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pentru ca oamenii de la business class dintr-un zbor trans-atlantic
09:31
are doing business with all these people; they're making money
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fac afaceri cu toti oamenii astia; fac bani
09:33
off all these people. And I really do think that, in that sense at least,
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de pe urma tuturor acestor oameni. Si cred ca, cel putin in acest sens,
09:37
capitalism has been a constructive force,
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capitalismul a fost o forta constructiva
09:40
and more fundamentally, it's a non-zero-sumness
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si mai important, este o insumare ne-nula
09:42
that has been a constructive force in expanding people's realm
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care s-a constituit intr-o forta constructiva de raspandire intre oameni
09:46
of moral awareness. I think the non-zero-sum dynamic,
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a constiintei morale. Ok, cred ca dinamica sumei ne-nule,
09:51
which is not only economic by any means -- it's not always commerce --
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care nu este neaparat de natura economica -- nu este intotdeauna comert --
09:55
but it has driven us to the verge of a moral truth,
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ne-a condus pe calea unui adevar moral,
10:00
which is the fundamental equality of everyone. It has done that.
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care este egalitatea fundamentala a tuturor. Asta a facut.
10:03
As it has moved global, moved us toward a global level of social organization,
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In timp ce se globaliza, ne-a dus spre un nivel global de organizare sociala
10:08
it has driven us toward moral truth.
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ne-a condus inspre adevarul moral.
10:10
I think that's wonderful.
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Cred ca asta este minunat.
10:13
Now, back to the unfolding apocalypse.
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Acum, inapoi la apocalipsa in desfasurare.
10:16
And you may wonder, OK, that's all fine,
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Si va puteti intreba, ok, totul e in regula,
10:18
sounds great -- moral direction in history --
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suna foarte bine -- directia morala in istorie --
10:20
but what about this so-called clash of civilizations? Well, first of all,
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dar ce ne facem cu asa numita inclestare a civilizatiilor? In primul rand
10:29
I would emphasize that it fits into the non-zero-sum framework,
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as spune ca se potriveste in cadrul sumei ne-nule.
10:32
OK. If you look at the relationship
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Daca va uitati la relatia
10:34
between the so-called Muslim world and Western world --
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dintre asa numitele Lume Musulmana si Lume Occidentala --
10:37
two terms I don't like, but can't really avoid;
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doi termeni care nu imi plac, dar pe care nu prea pot sa ii evit --
10:40
in such a short span of time, they're efficient if nothing else --
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intr-o perioada atat de scurta de timp, sunt cel putin eficiente.
10:44
it is non-zero-sum. And by that I mean,
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Este o suma ne-nula. Si prin asta spun ca,
10:47
if people in the Muslim world get more hateful, more resentful,
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daca lumea Musulmana devine mai plina de ura, mai rea,
10:51
less happy with their place in the world,
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mai putin fericita cu locul ei pe lume,
10:52
it'll be bad for the West. If they get more happy, it'll be good for the West.
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pentru lumea Occidentala va fi mai rau. Daca ei vor fi mai fericiti, pentru Occident va fi bine.
10:56
So that is a non-zero-sum dynamic.
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Deci este o dinamica de tip suma ne-nula.
11:01
And I would say the non-zero-sum dynamic is only going to grow more intense over time
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Si as vrea sa spun ca dinamica sumei ne-nule se va intensifica in timp
11:05
because of technological trends, but more intense in a kind of negative way.
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datorita trendurilor tehnologiei, dar se va intensifica in sensul negativ.
11:10
It's the downside correlation of their fortunes that will become more and more possible.
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Este vorba despre corelarea negativa a sanselor care va deveni din ce in ce mai posibila.
11:16
And one reason is because of something I call the "growing lethality of hatred."
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Si unul dintre motive este ceva ce eu numesc cresterea mortalitatii urii.
11:21
More and more, it's possible for grassroots hatred abroad
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Din ce in ce mai mult este posibil ca sustinatorii urii din afara
11:25
to manifest itself in the form of organized violence on American soil.
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sa se poata manifesta in forme organizate de violenta pe teritoriu american.
11:30
And that's pretty new, and I think it's probably going to get a lot worse
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Si asta e ceva nou si cred ca este probabil sa se agraveze
11:33
-- this capacity -- because of
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-- capacitatea aceasta -- datorita
11:36
trends in information technology, in technologies that can be used
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tendintelor in tehnologia informatiei, in tehnologiile care pot fi folosite
11:40
for purposes of munitions like biotechnology and nanotechnology.
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pe post de munitie ca biotehnologia si nanotehnologia.
11:46
We may be hearing more about that today.
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S-ar putea sa auzim mai mult despre asta in ziua de azi.
11:48
And there's something I worry about especially, which is that
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Si mai este ceva ce ma ingrijoreaza in mod special, si anume
11:51
this dynamic will lead to a kind of a feedback cycle that puts us on a slippery slope.
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ca aceasta dinamica va conduce catre un ciclu de feed-back, care ne va aseza pe o panta alunecoasa.
11:57
What I have in mind is: terrorism happens here; we overreact to it.
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Ce-mi trece prin minte: terorismul se intampla aici, noi reactionam exagerat.
12:00
That, you know, we're not sufficiently surgical in our retaliation
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Pentru ca nu suntem indeajuns de precisi in aceasta revansă
12:04
leads to more hatred abroad, more terrorism.
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poate duce la mai multa ura in afara, la mai mult terorism.
12:06
We overreact because being human, we feel like retaliating,
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Reactionam exagerat fiind umani, simtim nevoia razbunarii
12:10
and it gets worse and worse and worse.
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si astfel devine din ce in ce mai rau.
12:12
You could call this the positive feedback of negative vibes,
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Putem numi asta raspunsul pozitiv al vibratiilor negative,
12:16
but I think in something so spooky,
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dar cred ca in ceva atat de inspaimantator,
12:18
we really shouldn't have the word positive there at all, even in a technical sense.
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chiar nu ar trebui sa folosim termenul de pozitiv deloc, nici macar in sens tehnic.
12:21
So let's call it the death spiral of negativity.
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Asadar sa o numim spirala mortii negativismului.
12:24
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
12:26
I assure you if it happens, at the end, both the West
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Va asigur ca daca se intampla, la final, atat Occidentul
12:28
and the Muslim world will have suffered.
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cat si lumea musulmana vor fi suferit.
12:31
So, what do we do? Well, first of all, we can do a lot more with arms control,
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Deci ce facem? Ei bine, intai de toate, am putea face ceva mai mult pentru controlul armamentului,
12:37
the international regulation of dangerous technologies.
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reglementarile internationale ale tehnologiilor periculoase.
12:39
I have a whole global governance sermon
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Am o intreaga predica guvernamentala la nivel global
12:41
that I will spare you right now,
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de care va voi scuti acum,
12:43
because I don't think that's going to be enough anyway, although it's essential.
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pentru ca mi se pare ca oricum nu va fi suficienta oricum, cu toate ca este esentiala.
12:46
I think we're going to have to have a major round
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Cred ca vom avea de-a face cu o si mai mare runda
12:48
of moral progress in the world.
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de progres moral in lume.
12:50
I think you're just going to have to see less hatred among groups,
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Cred ca va trebui sa vedem mai putina ura intre grupuri,
12:55
less bigotry, and, you know, racial groups, religious groups, whatever.
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mai putina habotnicie, stiti voi, grupuri rasiale, grupuri religioase, ce-o fi.
13:01
I've got to admit I feel silly saying that.
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Trebuie sa recunosc ca ma simt un pic prostut spunand asta.
13:03
It sounds so kind of Pollyannaish. I feel like Rodney King, you know,
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Suna de un optimism incurabil. Ma simt ca Rodney King
13:06
saying, why can't we all just get along?
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spunand "de ce nu ne putem impaca cu totii?"
13:08
But hey, I don't really see any alternative, given the way I read the situation.
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Dar stati, nu prea vad o alta alternativa, dat fiind modul in care am descris situatia.
13:14
There's going to have to be moral progress.
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Va trebui sa existe un progres moral.
13:17
There's going to have to be a lessening of the amount of hatred in the world,
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Va trebui sa scadem cantitatea de ura din lume,
13:21
given how dangerous it's becoming.
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avind in vedere cat de periculoasa devine.
13:25
In my defense, I'd say, as naive as this may sound,
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In sprijinul meu, as spune, oricat de naiv ar suna,
13:28
it's ultimately grounded in cynicism.
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ca totul isi are originea in cinism.
13:31
That is to say --
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Trebuie spus --
13:32
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
13:33
-- thank you, thank you. That is to say, remember: my whole view
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-- multumesc, multumesc. Trebuie spus, va amintiti: intreaga mea viziune
13:38
of morality is that it boils down to self-interest.
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asupra moralitatii se reduce la interesul propriu.
13:41
It's when people's fortunes are correlated.
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Se intampla cand sansele oamenilor se coreleaza.
13:43
It's when your welfare conduces to mine, that I decide, oh yeah,
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Se intampla cand bunastarea voastra duce inspre a mea, cand decid
13:46
I'm all in favor of your welfare. That's what's responsible
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ca sunt cu totul in favoarea bunastarii tale. Asta-i raspunzatoare
13:50
for this growth of this moral progress so far,
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pentru aceasta crestere a progresului moral pana acum,
13:53
and I'm saying we once again have a correlation of fortunes,
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si spun ca avem din nou o corelare a sanselor.
13:56
and if people respond to it intelligently, we will see
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Si daca oamenii ii vor raspunde inteligent, vom vedea
14:00
the development of tolerance and so on --
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dezvoltarea tolerantei si asa mai departe --
14:03
the norms that we need, you know.
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normele de care avem nevoie.
14:06
We will see the further evolution of this kind of business-class morality.
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Vom vedea evolutia mai departe a acelei moralitati business-class.
14:10
So, these two things, you know, if they get people's attention
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Deci aceste doua lucruri, daca atrag atentia omenilor
14:16
and drive home the positive correlation and people do what's in their self-interests,
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si le inoculeaza corelarea pozitiva si oamenii fac ceea ce este in interesul propriu,
14:19
which is further the moral evolution,
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ceea ce constituie mai departe evolutia morala,
14:23
then they could actually have a constructive effect.
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atunci ar putea avea un efect constructiv.
14:26
And that's why I lump growing lethality of hatred
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Si asta e motivul pentru care unesc cresterea mortalitatii urii
14:29
and death spiral of negativity under the general rubric,
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si spirala mortii negativismului sub rubrica:
14:32
reasons to be cheerful.
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motive sa fim veseli.
14:34
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
14:36
Doing the best I can, OK.
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Fac ce pot.
14:38
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
14:39
I never called myself Mr. Uplift.
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Nu m-am crezut niciodata Dl. Pozitiv.
14:41
I'm just doing what I can here.
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Fac doar tot ce pot.
14:44
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
14:45
Now, launching a moral revolution has got to be hard, right?
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Acum, declansarea unei revolutii morale ar trebui sa fie dificila, nu?
14:48
I mean, what do you do?
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Adica ce facem?
14:50
And I think the answer is a lot of different people
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Si cred ca raspunsul e ca o groaza de oameni diferiti
14:52
are going to have to do a lot of different things.
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vor trebui sa faca o groaza de diverse lucruri.
14:55
We all start where we are. Speaking as an American
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Incepem acolo unde suntem. Vorbesc in calitate de american
15:00
who has children whose security 10, 20, 30 years down the road
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care are copii, a caror securitate peste 10, 20, 30 de ani
15:04
I worry about -- what I personally want to start out doing
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ma ingrijoreaza -- ceea ce as vrea sa incep sa fac
15:07
is figuring out why so many people around the world hate us, OK.
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este sa inteleg de ce atat de multi oameni in lume ne urasc.
15:11
I think that's a worthy research project myself.
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Am impresia ca este un proiect demn.
15:15
I also like it because it's an intrinsically kind of morally redeeming exercise.
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Imi place si pentru ca, prin el insusi, este un exercitiu de mantuire morala.
15:20
Because to understand why somebody
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Fiindca, pentru a intelege de ce cineva,
15:22
in a very different culture does something --
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intr-o cultura complet diferita, face ceva --
15:24
somebody you're kind of viewing as alien,
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cineva pe care tu il vezi ca pe un strain --
15:26
who's doing things you consider strange
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care face lucruri pe care tu le consideri stranii
15:28
in a culture you consider strange -- to really understand why they do
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intr-o cultura pe care tu o consideri stranie, sa intelegi intr-adevar de ce face
15:32
the things they do is a morally redeeming accomplishment,
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lucrurile pe care le face, este o realizare cu valoare de mantuire morala
15:36
because you've got to relate their experience to yours.
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pentru ca trebuie sa faci legatura intre experienta lui si a ta.
15:38
To really understand it, you've got to say, "Oh, I get it.
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Sa intelegi intr-adevar, trebuie sa zici "Ah, am priceput.
15:42
So when they feel resentful, it's kind of like
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Deci atunci cand ei au resentimente, e intr-un fel
15:44
the way I feel resentful when this happens,
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ca atunci cand eu am resentimente cand se intampla asta,
15:46
and for somewhat the same reasons." That's true understanding.
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si intrucatva pentru aceleasi motive." Aceasta este adevarata intelegere.
15:50
And I think that is an expansion of your moral compass when you manage to do that.
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Si cred ca este o imbunatatire a busolei tale morale cand reusesti sa faci asta.
15:56
It's especially hard to do when people hate you, OK,
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Este dificil in special atunci cand oamenii te urasc,
15:59
because you don't really, in a sense, want
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pentru ca nu prea vrei
16:02
to completely understand why people hate you.
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sa intelegi de ce oamenii te urasc.
16:04
I mean, you want to hear the reason, but you don't want to be able to relate to it.
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Adica, vrei sa stii motivul, dar nu vrei sa fii capabil sa relationezi cu el.
16:06
You don't want it to make sense, right? (Laughter)
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Ai vrea sa nu aibe sens, nu-i asa?
16:08
You don't want to say, "Well, yeah, I can kind of understand
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Nu ai vrea sa spui: "Ei bine, cred ca inteleg
16:10
how a human being in those circumstances
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cum o persoana aflata in astfel de circumstante
16:12
would hate the country I live in." That's not a pleasant thing,
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poate sa urasca tara in care traiesc." Nu e un gand prea placut,
16:15
but I think it's something that we're going to have to get used to and
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dar cred ca este ceva pe care va trebui sa ne obisnuim sa il facem si
16:21
work on. Now, I want to stress that to understand, you know --
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la care sa lucram. As vrea acum sa subliniez ca a intelege, stiti ca
16:32
there are people who don't like this whole business of understanding
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exista oameni care nu agreaza toata treaba asta cu intelegerea
16:35
the grassroots, the root causes of things; they don't want to know
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esentialului, a cauzelor esentiale ale lucrurilor; nu vor sa stie
16:39
why people hate us. I want to understand it.
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de ce oamenii ne urasc. Eu vreau sa inteleg.
16:42
The reason you're trying to understand why they hate us,
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Motivul pentru care incercam sa intelegem de ce ne urasc,
16:44
is to get them to quit hating us. The idea
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este sa ii facem sa nu ne mai urasca. Ideea,
16:47
when you go through this moral exercise of really coming to appreciate
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cand trecem prin tot acest exercitiu moral de a ajunge sa le apreciem
16:51
their humanity and better understand them, is part of an effort
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umanitatea si sa ii intelegem mai bine, este parte din efortul
16:56
to get them to appreciate your humanity in the long run.
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de a-i face pe ei sa ne inteleaga umanitatea, pe termen lung.
16:58
I think it's the first step toward that. That's the long-term goal.
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Cred ca este primul pas intr-acolo. Asta este telul pe termen lung.
17:02
There are people who worry about this, and in fact,
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Exista oameni care se ingrijoreaza de asta, si de fapt,
17:07
I, myself, apparently, was denounced on national TV
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eu insumi, se pare, am fost denuntat la o televiziune nationala
17:12
a couple of nights ago because of an op-ed I'd written.
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acum cateva seri din cauza unui articol pe care l-am scris.
17:16
It was kind of along these lines, and the allegation was
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Era cam ceea ce spun acum, si acuzatia era ca eu,
17:18
that I have, quote, "affection for terrorists."
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citez, "nutresc afectiune pentru teroristi"
17:22
Now, the good news is that the person who said it was Ann Coulter.
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Vestea buna este ca persoana care a spus-o este Ann Coulter.
17:25
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
17:27
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
17:29
I mean, if you've got to have an enemy, do make it Ann Coulter.
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Adica, daca tot e sa ai un dusman, fa in asa fel incat sa fie Ann Coulter.
17:31
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
17:32
But it's not a crazy concern, OK, because understanding behavior
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Dar nu e o ingrijorare nebuneasca, pentru ca intelegerea comportamentului
17:36
can lead to a kind of empathy,
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poate duce la un fel de empatie
17:38
and it can make it a little harder to deliver tough love, and so on.
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si poate face un pic mai dificil sa oferi iubirea rationala si asa mai departe.
17:41
But I think we're a lot closer to erring on the side of not comprehending
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Dar cred ca suntem mai aproape de a gresi prin neintelegerea
17:48
the situation clearly enough, than in comprehending it so clearly
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corecta a situatiei, decat de a o intelege intr-atat de clar
17:52
that we just can't, you know, get the army out to kill terrorists.
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incat sa nu putem trimite armata sa omoare teroristi.
17:55
So I'm not really worried about it. So --
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Asa ca nu sunt foarte ingrijorat. Deci --
17:58
(Laughter)
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(Rasete)
18:00
-- I mean, we're going to have to work on a lot of fronts,
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-- va trebui sa lucram pe mai multe fronturi,
18:05
but if we succeed -- if we succeed -- then once again,
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dar daca reusim - daca reusim -- atunci inca o data,
18:12
non-zero-sumness and the recognition of non-zero-sum dynamics
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insumarea ne-nula si recunoasterea dinamicii sumei ne-nule
18:16
will have forced us to a higher moral level.
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ne vor fi impins la un nivel moral mai inalt.
18:20
And a kind of saving higher moral level,
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Ceva de genul unei salvari a unui nivel moral mai inalt,
18:25
something that kind of literally saves the world.
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ceva ce pur si simplu salveaza lumea.
18:27
If you look at the word "salvation" in the Bible --
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Daca va uitati la cuvantul salvare in Biblie --
18:30
the Christian usage that we're familiar with --
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intelesul crestin cu care suntem familiari,
18:33
saving souls, that people go to heaven -- that's actually a latecomer.
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salvarea sufletelor, oamenii care merg in Rai -- este unul mai tarziu.
18:36
The original meaning of the word "salvation" in the Bible is about saving the social system.
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Intelesul original al cuvantului salvare in Biblie se refera la salvarea sistemului social.
18:42
"Yahweh is our Savior" means "He has saved the nation of Israel,"
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"Iahve este Salvarea noastra." inseamna "El a salvat poporul lui Israel",
18:45
which at the time, was a pretty high-level social organization.
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care, la acea vreme, era o organizare sociala destul de inalta.
18:48
Now, social organization has reached the global level, and I guess,
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Acum, organizarea sociala a ajuns la nivel global, si banuiesc,
18:52
if there's good news I can say I'm bringing you, it's just that
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daca se poate spune ca va aduc vesti bune, este ca tot ce
18:56
all the salvation of the world requires is the intelligent pursuit
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cere salvarea lumii este urmarirea inteligenta
19:02
of self-interests in a disciplined and careful way.
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a propriilor interese intr-o maniera disciplinata si grijulie.
19:08
It's going to be hard. I say we give it a shot anyway
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Va fi greu. Zic sa incercam totusi,
19:11
because we've just come too far to screw it up now.
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pentru ca am ajuns prea departe ca sa stricam totul acum.
19:14
Thanks.
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Multumesc.
19:16
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Wright - Journalist, philosopherThe best-selling author of "Nonzero," "The Moral Animal" and "The Evolution of God," Robert Wright draws on his wide-ranging knowledge of science, religion, psychology, history and politics to figure out what makes humanity tick -- and what makes us moral.
Why you should listen
Author Robert Wright thinks the crises the human species now faces are moral in nature, and that our salvation lies in the intelligent pursuit of self-interest. In his book Nonzero, Wright argues that life depends on a non-zero-sum dynamic. While a zero-sum game depends on a winner and loser, all parties in a non-zero-sum game win or lose together, so players will more likely survive if they cooperate. This points to an optimistic future of ultimate cooperation among humans -- if we recognize the game.
Well-respected for his erudition and original thinking (Bill Clinton hailed him as a genius), Wright draws from multiple disciplines -- including science, religion, history and politics -- in his search for big-picture perspectives on today's problems, particularly terrorism, while offering guarded hope for where we might be headed. A Schwartz Senior Fellow at the New America Foundation, Wright also hosts an interview series with celebrated thinkers at Meaningoflifetv.com.
Wright's newest book, The Evolution of God, explores the history of the idea of God in the three Abrahamic religions, Judaism, Islam and Christianity.
Robert Wright | Speaker | TED.com