TED2013
Rodney Brooks: Why we will rely on robots
Rodney Brooks: Pse do te mbeshtetemi tek robotet
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Alarmistet flasin mbi idene qe robotet thjesht do te zevendesojne punen e njeriut. Ne fakt, ata mund te behen bashkepunetore te ngushte, duke na liruar kohe qe ta harxhojme per sfida me pak te rendomta dhe mekanike. Rodney Brooks nxjerr ne pah sa e rendesishme mund te jete kjo nderkohe qe numri i te rriturve ne moshe pune ulet dhe numri i pensionisteve rritet. Ai na prezanton me Baxter, roboti me sy te levizshem dhe me krahe qe reagojne ndaj prekjes,te cilet mund te punojne se bashku me nje popullsi ne plakje -- dhe qe mund t'i ndihmojne dhe ne shtepi gjithashtu.
Rodney Brooks - Roboticist
Rodney Brooks builds robots based on biological principles of movement and reasoning. The goal: a robot who can figure things out. Full bio
Rodney Brooks builds robots based on biological principles of movement and reasoning. The goal: a robot who can figure things out. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Well, Arthur C. Clarke,
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Arthur C.Clarke,
00:14
a famous science fiction writer from the 1950s,
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nje shkrimtar fantastiko shkencor i viteve 1950,
00:17
said that, "We overestimate technology in the short term,
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ka thene qe, "E mbivleresojme teknologjine ne terma afatshkurter,
00:21
and we underestimate it in the long term."
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dhe e nenvleresojme ate ne terma afatgjate".
00:24
And I think that's some of the fear that we see
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Mendoj qe kjo vjen ca nga frika qe kemi
00:26
about jobs disappearing from artificial intelligence and robots.
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se punet po zhduken per shkak te inteligjences artificiale dhe roboteve.
00:31
That we're overestimating the technology in the short term.
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Ne e mbivleresojme teknologjine ne terma afatshkurter.
00:33
But I am worried whether we're going to get the technology we need in the long term.
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Por jam i shqetesuar nese do te kemi teknologjine qe na nevojitet ne terma afatgjate.
00:39
Because the demographics are really going to leave us with lots of jobs that need doing
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Per shkak se demografia do te na lere shume pune qe duhen bere
00:45
and that we, our society, is going to have to be built on the shoulders of steel of robots in the future.
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dhe ne, shoqeria jone, do te mbeshtetemi tek krahet prej çeliku te roboteve ne te ardhmen.
00:50
So I'm scared we won't have enough robots.
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Keshtu qe kam frike se nuk do kemi robote te mjaftueshem.
00:53
But fear of losing jobs to technology has been around for a long time.
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Por frika per humbjen e puneve per shkak te teknologjise ka ekzistuar per nje kohe te gjate.
00:57
Back in 1957, there was a Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn movie.
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Ne 1957, ishte nje film me Spencer Tracy dhe Katherine Hepburn.
01:01
So you know how it ended up,
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Ju e dini si perfundoi,
01:03
Spencer Tracy brought a computer, a mainframe computer of 1957, in
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Spencer Tracy mori nje kompjuter, nje mainframe te vitit 1957,
01:07
to help the librarians.
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per te ndihmuar punonjesit e biblotekave.
01:09
The librarians in the company would do things like answer for the executives,
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Keto biblotekare u pergjigjeshin pyetjeve te drejtoreve,
01:12
"What are the names of Santa's reindeer?"
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"Cilet jane emrat e drerit te Santa"?
01:16
And they would look that up.
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Dhe ato e kerkonin pergjigjen.
01:17
And this mainframe computer was going to help them with that job.
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Ai kompjuter mainframe do t'i ndihmonte ne kete pune.
01:20
Well of course a mainframe computer in 1957 wasn't much use for that job.
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Sigurisht qe nje mainframe ne 1957 nuk ishte aq e nevojshme per ate pune.
01:24
The librarians were afraid their jobs were going to disappear.
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Biblotekaret ishin te frikesuar qe profesioni i tyre do te zhdukej.
01:27
But that's not what happened in fact.
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Por kjo nuk ndodhi ne fakt.
01:29
The number of jobs for librarians increased for a long time after 1957.
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Numri i puneve per biblotekaret u rrit per nje kohe te gjate pas 1957.
01:34
It wasn't until the Internet came into play,
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Vetem atehere kur u fut ne loje Interneti,
01:37
the web came into play and search engines came into play
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web-i dhe motorret e kerkimit
01:40
that the need for librarians went down.
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qe u ul nevoja per biblotekaret.
01:42
And I think everyone from 1957 totally underestimated
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Mendoj qe cdokush ne 1957 e nenvleresoi teresisht
01:46
the level of technology we would all carry around in our hands and in our pockets today.
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nivelin e teknologjise qe mbajme sot ne duart dhe xhepat tone.
01:51
And we can just ask: "What are the names of Santa's reindeer?" and be told instantly --
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Ne thjesht mund te pyesim: "Cilet jane emrat e drereve te Santa?" dhe na tregohet ne çast--
01:57
or anything else we want to ask.
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ose gjithcka tjeter qe duam te pyesim.
01:59
By the way, the wages for librarians went up faster
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Me qe ra fjala, rrogat e biblotekareve u rriten me shpejt
02:04
than the wages for other jobs in the U.S. over that same time period,
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se rrogat e profesioneve te tjera ne Sh.B.A ne te njejten periudhe kohe,
02:07
because librarians became partners of computers.
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sepse biblotekaret u bene partnerë me kompjuterat.
02:11
Computers became tools, and they got more tools that they could use
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Kompjuterat u bene mjete, dhe ato kishin me shume mjete per te perdorur
02:14
and become more effective during that time.
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dhe u bene me te efektshem gjate asaj kohe.
02:16
Same thing happened in offices.
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E njejta gje ndodhi ne zyra.
02:18
Back in the old days, people used spreadsheets.
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Ne kohet e vjetra, njerezit perdornin tabela.
02:20
Spreadsheets were spread sheets of paper,
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Tabelat jane letra,
02:22
and they calculated by hand.
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dhe ato i kryenin llogaritjet me dore.
02:25
But here was an interesting thing that came along.
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Ketu ndodhi dicka interesante.
02:27
With the revolution around 1980 of P.C.'s,
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Me revolucionin e kompjuterave personal rreth viteve 1980
02:29
the spreadsheet programs were tuned for office workers,
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programet tabelore u pershtaten per zyrtaret,
02:34
not to replace office workers,
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jo per t'i zevendesuar zyrtaret,
02:36
but it respected office workers as being capable of being programmers.
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por i respektoi zyrtaret si te afte per te qene programues.
02:40
So office workers became programmers of spreadsheets.
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Keshtu qe zyrtaret u bene programues te tabelave.
02:43
It increased their capabilities.
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Kjo i rriti aftesite e tyre.
02:45
They no longer had to do the mundane computations,
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Ato nuk kishin me nevoje te benin llogarite e rendomta,
02:48
but they could do something much more.
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ato mund benin shume me teper.
02:51
Now today, we're starting to see robots in our lives.
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Ne sot, po fillojme te shohim robotet ne jetet tona.
02:54
On the left there is the PackBot from iRobot.
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Ne te majte eshte PackBot nga iRobot.
02:57
When soldiers came across roadside bombs in Iraq and Afghanistan,
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Kur ushtaret ndeshnin bomba ne rruge ne Irak dhe Afganistan,
03:00
instead of putting on a bomb suit and going out and poking with a stick,
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ne vend te vishnin kostumin kundereksploziv dhe ta "ngacmonin me shkop",
03:04
as they used to do up until about 2002,
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sic benin deri nga viti 2002,
03:06
they now send the robot out.
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ata tani dergojne robotet.
03:08
So the robot takes over the dangerous jobs.
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Keshtu roboti ben punet e rrezikshme.
03:10
On the right are some TUGs from a company called Aethon in Pittsburgh.
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Ne te djathte jane ca TUG-e nga nje kompani e quajtur Aethon ne Pittsburg.
03:15
These are in hundreds of hospitals across the U.S.
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Keto ndodhen ne qindra spitale ne te gjithe Shtetet e Bashkuara.
03:17
And they take the dirty sheets down to the laundry.
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Ato çojne çarçafet e palare ne lavanteri.
03:20
They take the dirty dishes back to the kitchen.
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Ato i cojne enët e palara ne kuzhine.
03:21
They bring the medicines up from the pharmacy.
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Ato sjellin ilacet nga farmacia.
03:24
And it frees up the nurses and the nurse's aides
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Kjo u mundeson infermiereve dhe asistenteve te tyre
03:26
from doing that mundane work of just mechanically pushing stuff around
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qe te mos bejne pune te rendomta duke çuar gjera sa andej ketej
03:30
to spend more time with patients.
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por te harxhojne me shume kohe me pacientet.
03:32
In fact, robots have become sort of ubiquitous in our lives in many ways.
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Ne fakt, robotet jane bere prezent ne jetet tona ne shume menyra.
03:37
But I think when it comes to factory robots, people are sort of afraid,
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Por mendoj qe kur behet fjale per robote fabrikash, njerezit jane disi te frikesuar,
03:42
because factory robots are dangerous to be around.
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sepse ata jane te rrezikshem nese ndodhesh prane tyre.
03:46
In order to program them, you have to understand six-dimensional vectors and quaternions.
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Per t'i programuar ata, duhet qe te kuptoni vektoret 6-dimensionale dhe kuaternionet.
03:51
And ordinary people can't interact with them.
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Dhe njerezit e zakonshem s'mund te nderveprojne me ta.
03:54
And I think it's the sort of technology that's gone wrong.
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Keshtu kjo eshte teknologji e çuar dëm.
03:57
It's displaced the worker from the technology.
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E ka zhvendosur punetorin nga teknologjia.
04:00
And I think we really have to look at technologies
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Mendoj qe duhet me te vertete te shikojme teknologjite
04:04
that ordinary workers can interact with.
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me te cilat punetoret e zakoshem mund te nderveprojne.
04:06
And so I want to tell you today about Baxter, which we've been talking about.
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Dhe keshtu dua t'iu tregoj sot per Baxter, per te cilin kemi folur.
04:09
And Baxter, I see, as a way -- a first wave of robot
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Baxter, e shikoj si valen e pare te roboteve me te cilet
04:14
that ordinary people can interact with in an industrial setting.
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njerezit e zakonshem mund te nderveprojne ne ambjente industriale.
04:18
So Baxter is up here.
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Baxter eshte ketu lart.
04:19
This is Chris Harbert from Rethink Robotics.
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Ky eshte Chris Harbert nga Rethink Robotics.
04:22
We've got a conveyor there.
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Kemi nje transportues aty.
04:24
And if the lighting isn't too extreme --
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Dhe nese ndricimi nuk eshte shume ekstrem --
04:27
Ah, ah! There it is. It's picked up the object off the conveyor.
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Aha! Ja ku eshte. E ka ngritur objektin nga transportuesi.
04:31
It's going to come bring it over here and put it down.
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Do te vije dhe ta sjelle ketu.
04:34
And then it'll go back, reach for another object.
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Pastaj do kthehet, te kape nje objekt tjeter.
04:37
The interesting thing is Baxter has some basic common sense.
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Gjeja interesante eshte se Baxter ne thelb eshte praktik.
04:41
By the way, what's going on with the eyes?
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Me qe ra fjala, cfare po ndodh me syte?
04:43
The eyes are on the screen there.
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Syte jane atje tek ekrani.
04:44
The eyes look ahead where the robot's going to move.
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Syte shikojne perpara atje kur roboti do beje dicka.
04:47
So a person that's interacting with the robot
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Keshtu nje person qe po ndervepron me robotin
04:49
understands where it's going to reach and isn't surprised by its motions.
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e kupton se ku do te shkoje roboti dhe nuk habitet nga levizjet e tij.
04:53
Here Chris took the object out of its hand,
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Ketu Chris ja mori objektin robotit,
04:55
and Baxter didn't go and try to put it down;
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dhe Baxter nuk u perpoq ta ule poshte.
04:58
it went back and realized it had to get another one.
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e kuptoi qe duhej te merrte nje tjeter.
05:00
It's got a little bit of basic common sense, goes and picks the objects.
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Ka nje sens praktik, shkon dhe merr objektet.
05:03
And Baxter's safe to interact with.
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Dhe Baxter eshte i parrezikshem per te ndervepruar me te.
05:05
You wouldn't want to do this with a current industrial robot.
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Nuk do donit ta beni kete me nje robot industrial.
05:08
But with Baxter it doesn't hurt.
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Por me Baxter nuk ka problem.
05:10
It feels the force, understands that Chris is there
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Ai e ndjen forcen, e kupton qe Chris eshte aty
05:14
and doesn't push through him and hurt him.
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dhe nuk e shtyn dhe ta lendoje.
05:17
But I think the most interesting thing about Baxter is the user interface.
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Por mendoj qe gjeja me interesante rreth Baxter eshte nderfaqja e perdoruesit.
05:20
And so Chris is going to come and grab the other arm now.
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Keshtu Chris do te vije te kape krahun tjeter tani.
05:23
And when he grabs an arm, it goes into zero-force gravity-compensated mode
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Dhe kur i kap nje krah, ai shkon ne nje gjendje graviteti te kompensuar dhe zero-force
05:29
and graphics come up on the screen.
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dhe grafiket shfaqen ne ekran.
05:31
You can see some icons on the left of the screen there for what was about its right arm.
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Mund te shikoni disa ikona ne te majte te ekranit qe kane te bejne me krahun e djathte.
05:35
He's going to put something in its hand, he's going to bring it over here,
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Ai do te mare dicka ne doren e tij, do ta sjelle ate ketu,
05:38
press a button and let go of that thing in the hand.
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do te shtype nje buton dhe ta lere ate gje.
05:43
And the robot figures out, ah, he must mean I want to put stuff down.
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Roboti e kupton, ah, ai e ka fjalen qe une duhet ta leshoj objektin.
05:48
It puts a little icon there.
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Vendos nje ikon te vogel aty.
05:49
He comes over here, and he gets the fingers to grasp together,
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Ai vjen ketu, dhe i bashkon gishtat,
05:55
and the robot infers, ah, you want an object for me to pick up.
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dhe roboti konkludon, aha, ti do qe une te ngre nje objekt.
05:59
That puts the green icon there.
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Dhe vendos ikonen jeshile.
06:01
He's going to map out an area of where the robot should pick up the object from.
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Ai do te percaktoje nje zone nga ku roboti duhet te ngreje objekte.
06:06
It just moves it around, and the robot figures out that was an area search.
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E leviz pak dhe roboti e kupton qe ishte nje kerkim zone.
06:11
He didn't have to select that from a menu.
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Ai nuk kishte nevoje ta zgjedhe kete nga nje menu.
06:13
And now he's going to go off and train the visual appearance of that object
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Dhe tani ai do filloje dhe trajnoje pamjen visuale te atij objekti
06:16
while we continue talking.
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nderkohe qe ne vazhdojme te flasim.
06:18
So as we continue here,
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Ndersa ne vazhdojme ketu,
06:20
I want to tell you about what this is like in factories.
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dua t'iu tregoj si ndodh kjo ne fabrika.
06:22
These robots we're shipping every day.
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Keto robote ne i shesim cdo dite.
06:23
They go to factories around the country.
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Ato dergohen ne fabrika ne te gjithe shtetin.
06:25
This is Mildred.
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Ky eshte Mildred.
06:26
Mildred's a factory worker in Connecticut.
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Mildred eshte nje punetor ne fabrike ne Connecticut.
06:28
She's worked on the line for over 20 years.
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Ajo ka punuar ne vijen e fabrikes per 20 vjet.
06:30
One hour after she saw her first industrial robot,
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Nje ore pasi shikoi robotin e saj te pare industrial,
06:33
she had programmed it to do some tasks in the factory.
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ajo e kishte programuar ate qe te beje disa pune ne fabrike.
06:37
She decided she really liked robots.
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Aje vendosi qe me te vertete i donte robotet.
06:39
And it was doing the simple repetitive tasks that she had had to do beforehand.
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Roboti do bente detyrat e thjeshta te perseritura qe ajo i bente me pare.
06:44
Now she's got the robot doing it.
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Tani ajo ka robotin qe i ben ato.
06:45
When we first went out to talk to people in factories
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Kur shkuam ne fillim te flasim me njerez ne fabrika
06:48
about how we could get robots to interact with them better,
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rreth asaj se si mund t'i benim robotet te ndervepronin me ta me mire,
06:51
one of the questions we asked them was,
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nje nga pyetjet qe u beme ishte,
06:52
"Do you want your children to work in a factory?"
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"A doni qe femijet tuaj te punojne ne fabrike?"
06:55
The universal answer was "No, I want a better job than that for my children."
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Te tere thane "Jo, dua nje pune me te mire per femijet e mi."
06:59
And as a result of that, Mildred is very typical
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Si rezultat i asaj, Mildred eshte shume i ngjashem
07:03
of today's factory workers in the U.S.
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me punetoret e sotem te fabrikave ne SH.B.A.
07:04
They're older, and they're getting older and older.
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Ata jane me te vjeter dhe po behen cdo dite e me te vjeter.
07:07
There aren't many young people coming into factory work.
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Nuk ka shume te rinj qe po vijne te punojne ne fabrike.
07:09
And as their tasks become more onerous on them,
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Nderkohe qe punet e tyre po behen me te renda,
07:13
we need to give them tools that they can collaborate with,
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ne duhet t'iu sigurojme atyre mjete me te cilat mund te bashkepunojne
07:16
so that they can be part of the solution,
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ne menyre qe te jene pjese e zgjidhjes,
07:17
so that they can continue to work and we can continue to produce in the U.S.
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qe te vazhdojne te punojne dhe ne te vazhdojme te prodhojme ne SH.B.A.
07:22
And so our vision is that Mildred who's the line worker
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Dhe vizioni jone eshte se Mildred qe eshte punetor linje
07:26
becomes Mildred the robot trainer.
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behet Mildred trajnuesi i roboteve.
07:29
She lifts her game,
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Ajo del e fituar,
07:30
like the office workers of the 1980s lifted their game of what they could do.
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po ashtu si zyrtaret e viteve 1980 dolen te fituar me ato qe mund te benin.
07:35
We're not giving them tools that they have to go and study for years and years in order to use.
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Nuk po u japim atyre mjete qe duhet te studiojne per vite me rradhe qe te mesojne t'i perdorin.
07:39
They're tools that they can just learn how to operate in a few minutes.
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Ato jane mjete qe mund te mesojne t'i perdorin ne pak minuta.
07:43
There's two great forces that are both volitional but inevitable.
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Ka dy forca te medha qe jane edhe te vullnetshme dhe te pashmangshme.
07:47
That's climate change and demographics.
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Ato jane ndryshimi klimaterik dhe demografia.
07:50
Demographics is really going to change our world.
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Demografia me te vertete do te ndryshoje boten tone.
07:52
This is the percentage of adults who are working age.
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Kjo eshte perqindja e te rriturve qe jane moshe pune.
07:56
And it's gone down slightly over the last 40 years.
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Eshte ulur pak gjate 40 viteve te fundit.
07:58
But over the next 40 years, it's going to change dramatically, even in China.
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Por gjate 40 viteve te tjera do te ndryshoje ne menyre dramatike, madje edhe ne Kine.
08:02
The percentage of adults who are working age drops dramatically.
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Perqindja e te rriturve qe jane moshe pune po bie ne menyre dramatike.
08:08
And turned up the other way, the people who are retirement age goes up very, very fast,
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Dhe eshte kthyer ne drejtim te kundert, njerezit qe jane moshe pensioni po rriten shume shpejt,
08:13
as the baby boomers get to retirement age.
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ndersa "baby boomers" po behen moshe pensioni.
08:17
That means there will be more people with fewer social security dollars
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Kjo do te thote qe do kete me shume njerez me pensione me te vogla
08:20
competing for services.
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qe garojne per sherbime.
08:23
But more than that, as we get older we get more frail
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Per me teper, ndersa vjeterohemi ne behemi me te dobet
08:27
and we can't do all the tasks we used to do.
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dhe s'mund te bejme te gjitha gjerat qe benim me pare.
08:29
If we look at the statistics on the ages of caregivers,
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Nese shikojme statistikat per moshat e kujdestareve personale,
08:33
before our eyes those caregivers are getting older and older.
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para syve tone ato kujdestare personale po vjeterohen gjithmone e me teper.
08:38
That's happening statistically right now.
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Kjo po ndodh statistkisht pikerisht tani.
08:40
And as the number of people who are older, above retirement age and getting older, as they increase,
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Ndersa numri i njerezve te vjeter, mbi moshen e pensionit po rritet,
08:46
there will be less people to take care of them.
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do kete me pak njerez per t'u kujdesur per ta.
08:48
And I think we're really going to have to have robots to help us.
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Une mendoj qe ne me te vertete do te kemi robote per te na ndihmuar.
08:50
And I don't mean robots in terms of companions.
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Nuk e kam fjalen per robote si shoqerues.
08:53
I mean robots doing the things that we normally do for ourselves
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E kam fjalen per robote qe bejne gjerat qe ne normalisht i bejme per veten
08:57
but get harder as we get older.
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por veshtiresohen ndersa plakemi.
08:58
Getting the groceries in from the car, up the stairs, into the kitchen.
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Marrja e ushqimeve nga makina, ngjitja e shkalleve dhe vendosja e tyre ne kuzhine.
09:01
Or even, as we get very much older,
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Ose madje, nderkohe qe vjeterohemi me shume,
09:04
driving our cars to go visit people.
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drejtimi i makinave kur shkojme te vizitojme njerezit.
09:07
And I think robotics gives people a chance to have dignity as they get older
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Mendoj qe robotika u jep njerezve nje mundesi per dinjitet ndersa vjeterohen
09:13
by having control of the robotic solution.
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duke pasur kontroll mbi zgjidhjen robotike.
09:17
So they don't have to rely on people that are getting scarcer to help them.
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Keshtu ata s'kane pse te mbeshteten tek njerezit qe po behen te rralle per t'i ndihmuar.
09:20
And so I really think that we're going to be spending more time
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Keshtu qe mendoj qe do harxhojme me shume kohe
09:27
with robots like Baxter
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me robote si Baxter
09:29
and working with robots like Baxter in our daily lives. And that we will --
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dhe duke punuar me robote si Baxter ne jeten e perditshme. Dhe qe ne do te ...
09:36
Here, Baxter, it's good.
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Ketu, Baxter, ne rregull.
09:38
And that we will all come to rely on robots over the next 40 years
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Ne te gjithe do te fillojme te mbeshtetemi tek robotet gjate 40 viteve te ardhshme
09:43
as part of our everyday lives.
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si pjese te jetes sone te perditshme.
09:45
Thanks very much.
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Shume faleminderit.
09:46
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rodney Brooks - RoboticistRodney Brooks builds robots based on biological principles of movement and reasoning. The goal: a robot who can figure things out.
Why you should listen
Former MIT professor Rodney Brooks studies and engineers robot intelligence, looking for the holy grail of robotics: the AGI, or artificial general intelligence. For decades, we've been building robots to do highly specific tasks -- welding, riveting, delivering interoffice mail -- but what we all want, really, is a robot that can figure things out on its own, the way we humans do.
Brooks realized that a top-down approach -- just building the biggest brain possible and teaching it everything we could think of -- would never work. What would work is a robot who learns like we do, by trial and error, and with many separate parts that learn separate jobs. The thesis of his work which was captured in Fast, Cheap and Out of Control,went on to become the title of the great Errol Morris documentary.
A founder of iRobot, makers of the Roomba vacuum, Brooks is now founder and CTO of Rethink Robotics, whose mission is to apply advanced robotic intelligence to manufacturing and physical labor. Its first robots: the versatile two-armed Baxter and one-armed Sawyer. Brooks is the former director of CSAIL, MIT's Computers Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory.
Rodney Brooks | Speaker | TED.com