TEDxBoston 2012
Andrew McAfee: Are droids taking our jobs?
Endru Mekafi (Andrew McAfee): Da li androidi preuzimaju naše poslove?
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Roboti i algoritmi postaju dobri u poslovima kao što su: pravljenje automobila, pisanje članaka, prevođenje - poslovima za koje je pre bio potreban čovek. Koji ćemo posao onda mi ljudi da radimo? Endru Mekafi prolazi kroz skorašnje podatke o radnoj snazi i kaže: nismo još ništa videli. Ali onda se vraća korak unazad da pogleda veliku istoriju i iznosi iznenađujući i čak uzbudljiv pogled na to šta će doći sledeće. (Snimljeno na TEDxBoston.)
Andrew McAfee - Management theorist
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Andrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
As it turns out, when tens of millions of people
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Izgleda da, kada je desetine miliona ljudi
00:19
are unemployed or underemployed,
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nezaposleno ili nedovoljno zaposleno,
00:21
there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing to the labor force.
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ima puno interesovanja za ono što tehnologija
možda čini za radnu snagu.
možda čini za radnu snagu.
00:25
And as I look at the conversation, it strikes me
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I kad pogledam konverzaciju,
upada mi u oči
upada mi u oči
00:28
that it's focused on exactly the right topic,
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da je fokusirana na pravu temu,
00:31
and at the same time, it's missing the point entirely.
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i u isto vreme, promašuje suštinu
u potpunosti.
u potpunosti.
00:34
The topic that it's focused on, the question is whether or not
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Tema na koju je fokusirana,
pitanje da li ili ne
pitanje da li ili ne
00:37
all these digital technologies are affecting people's ability
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sve ove digitalne tehnologije
utiču na sposobnost ljudi
utiču na sposobnost ljudi
00:40
to earn a living, or, to say it a little bit different way,
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da zarade za život ili
da kažemo to na malo drugačiji način,
da kažemo to na malo drugačiji način,
00:43
are the droids taking our jobs?
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da li nam androidi uzimaju poslove?
00:46
And there's some evidence that they are.
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I evo nekih dokaza da to rade.
00:48
The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed
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Velika recesija se završila kad je američki
bruto domaći proizvod povratio
bruto domaći proizvod povratio
00:52
its kind of slow, steady march upward, and some other
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svoj spori, postojani hod naviše
i neki drugi
i neki drugi
00:56
economic indicators also started to rebound, and they got
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ekonomski pokazatelji su takođe
počeli da skaču
počeli da skaču
00:58
kind of healthy kind of quickly. Corporate profits
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i brzo su se oporavili.
Korporativni profiti
Korporativni profiti
01:01
are quite high. In fact, if you include bank profits,
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su prilično visoki. U stvari,
ako uključite profite banaka,
ako uključite profite banaka,
01:05
they're higher than they've ever been.
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oni su veći nego ikada.
01:07
And business investment in gear, in equipment
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I poslovno ulaganje u pribor,
u opremu
u opremu
01:10
and hardware and software is at an all-time high.
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i hardver i softver je najveće ikada.
01:13
So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks.
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Tako da firme vade svoje čekovne knjižice.
01:16
What they're not really doing is hiring.
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A to ne rade da bi zapošljavale.
01:19
So this red line is the employment-to-population ratio,
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Ova crvena linija je odnos
zaposlenosti i populacije,
zaposlenosti i populacije,
01:22
in other words, the percentage of working age people
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drugim rečima, procenat radno sposobnih ljudi
01:26
in America who have work.
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u Americi koji imaju posao.
01:28
And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession,
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I vidimo da se sunovratila
tokom Velike recesije,
tokom Velike recesije,
01:31
and it hasn't started to bounce back at all.
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i nije uopšte počela da se ponovo podiže.
01:34
But the story is not just a recession story.
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Ali priča nije samo priča o recesiji.
01:37
The decade that we've just been through had relatively
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Decenija koju smo upravo prošli
imala je relativno
imala je relativno
01:40
anemic job growth all throughout, especially when we
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anemičan porast posla za sve vreme
njenog trajanja, naročito kada je
njenog trajanja, naročito kada je
01:43
compare it to other decades, and the 2000s
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uporedimo sa drugim decenijama i 2000-te
01:46
are the only time we have on record where there were
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su jedini period kada smo zabeležili
01:48
fewer people working at the end of the decade
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da manje ljudi radi na kraju decenije
01:52
than at the beginning. This is not what you want to see.
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nego na početku.
To nije nešto što želite da vidite.
To nije nešto što želite da vidite.
01:55
When you graph the number of potential employees
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Kada crtate grafikon
broja potencijalnih zaposlenih
broja potencijalnih zaposlenih
01:58
versus the number of jobs in the country, you see the gap
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suprotstavljen broju poslova u zemlji,
vidite da jaz
vidite da jaz
02:02
gets bigger and bigger over time, and then,
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postaje sve veći i veći tokom
vremena i onda,
vremena i onda,
02:05
during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way.
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u toku Velike recesije,
se mnogo proširio.
se mnogo proširio.
02:08
I did some quick calculations. I took the last 20 years of GDP growth
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Uradio sam neke brze proračune. Uzeo sam rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda u zadnjih 20 godina
02:12
and the last 20 years of labor productivity growth
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i rast radne produktivnosti
u zadnjih 20 godina
u zadnjih 20 godina
02:16
and used those in a fairly straightforward way
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i iskoristio sam ih
na prilično uobičajen način
na prilično uobičajen način
02:18
to try to project how many jobs the economy was going
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da pokušam da predvidim
koliko će poslova ekonomiji
koliko će poslova ekonomiji
02:21
to need to keep growing, and this is the line that I came up with.
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biti potrebno na nastavi rast,
i ovo je linija koju sam dobio.
i ovo je linija koju sam dobio.
02:25
Is that good or bad? This is the government's projection
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Je li to dobro ili loše?
Ovo je predviđanje vlade
Ovo je predviđanje vlade
02:28
for the working age population going forward.
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za radno sposobno stanovništvo unapred.
02:32
So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.
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Ako su ova predviđanja tačna,
taj jaz se neće zatvoriti.
taj jaz se neće zatvoriti.
02:37
The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate.
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Problem je taj što ja ne mislim
da su ova predviđanja tačna.
da su ova predviđanja tačna.
02:40
In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic,
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U stvari, mislim da je
moje predviđanje suviše optimistično
moje predviđanje suviše optimistično
02:43
because when I did it, I was assuming that the future
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jer kad sam ga radio,
pretpostavljao sam da će budućnost
pretpostavljao sam da će budućnost
02:47
was kind of going to look like the past
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izgledati otprilike isto kao i prošlost
02:49
with labor productivity growth, and that's actually not what I believe,
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sa rastom radne produktivnosti, a to
u stvari nije ono u šta verujem,
u stvari nije ono u šta verujem,
02:53
because when I look around, I think that we ain't seen nothing yet
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jer kad se osvrnem, mislim da
još ništa nismo videli
još ništa nismo videli
02:56
when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force.
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kad je u pitanju uticaj tehnologije
na radnu snagu.
na radnu snagu.
03:00
Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools
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Samo u poslednjih nekoliko godina,
videli smo digitalne alate
videli smo digitalne alate
03:04
display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before,
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koji pokazuju veštine i mogućnosti koje
nikad ranije nisu imali,
nikad ranije nisu imali,
03:08
and that, kind of, eat deeply into what we human beings
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i to se nekako uvlači duboko u ono
što mi kao ljudska bića
što mi kao ljudska bića
03:12
do for a living. Let me give you a couple examples.
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radimo da bi se izdržavali.
Daću vam par primera.
Daću vam par primera.
03:15
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something
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Tokom cele istorije, ako ste želeli da nešto
03:17
translated from one language into another,
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prevedete sa jednog jezika na drugi,
03:20
you had to involve a human being.
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morali ste da uključite ljudsko biće u to.
03:22
Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,
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Sada imamo multijezičke, trenutne,
03:25
automatic translation services available for free
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automatske prevodilačke servise
dostupne besplatno
dostupne besplatno
03:29
via many of our devices all the way down to smartphones.
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preko mnogih naših uređaja
sve do smart telefona.
sve do smart telefona.
03:33
And if any of us have used these, we know that
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I ako smo ih nekad koristili, znamo da
03:35
they're not perfect, but they're decent.
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nisu savršeni, ali su pristojni.
03:38
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written,
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Kroz celu istoriju,
ako ste hteli nešto napisano,
ako ste hteli nešto napisano,
03:42
a report or an article, you had to involve a person.
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izveštaj ili članak,
morali ste da uključite osobu.
morali ste da uključite osobu.
03:45
Not anymore. This is an article that appeared
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Ne više. Ovo je članak koji se pojavio
03:47
in Forbes online a while back about Apple's earnings.
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u Forbsu na internetu pre nekog vremena,
o Eplovim zaradama.
o Eplovim zaradama.
03:51
It was written by an algorithm.
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Napisan je pomoću algoritma.
03:53
And it's not decent, it's perfect.
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I nije pristojan. Savršen je.
03:56
A lot of people look at this and they say, "Okay,
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Mnogi vide ovo i kažu: "Okej,
03:59
but those are very specific, narrow tasks,
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ali to su vrlo specifični, uski zadaci,
04:02
and most knowledge workers are actually generalists,
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a većina radnika koji koriste znanje
u stvari ima opšte znanje,
u stvari ima opšte znanje,
04:04
and what they do is sit on top of a very large body
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i ono što oni rade je da koriste
veoma veliki skup
veoma veliki skup
04:07
of expertise and knowledge and they use that
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stručnosti i znanja i to koriste
04:09
to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands,
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da reaguju u hodu
na donekle nepredvidive zahteve,
na donekle nepredvidive zahteve,
04:13
and that's very, very hard to automate."
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a to je jako, jako teško automatizovati."
04:15
One of the most impressive knowledge workers
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Jedan od najimpresivnijih radnika koji
koriste znanje u svom radu
koriste znanje u svom radu
04:17
in recent memory is a guy named Ken Jennings.
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u skorijem sećanju je čovek po
imenu Ken Dženings.
imenu Ken Dženings.
04:19
He won the quiz show "Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row,
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On je pobedio u kvizu "Džepardi!"
74 puta zaredom,
74 puta zaredom,
04:24
took home three million dollars.
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odnevši kući tri miliona dolara.
04:27
That's Ken on the right getting beat three to one by
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Ovo desno je Ken koga sa 3-1 pobeđuje
04:31
Watson, the "Jeopardy!"-playing supercomputer from IBM.
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Votson, superkompjuter za igranje
"Džepardija" iz IBM-a.
"Džepardija" iz IBM-a.
04:36
So when we look at what technology can do
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Tako da kad vidimo šta tehnologija
može da uradi
može da uradi
04:38
to general knowledge workers, I start to think
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radnicima sa opštim znanjem,
počinjem da mislim
počinjem da mislim
04:40
there might not be something so special about this idea
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da možda nema ničeg posebnog u ovoj ideji
04:43
of a generalist, particularly when we start doing things
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o radnicima opšteg znanja, posebno
kad počnemo da radimo stvari
kad počnemo da radimo stvari
04:46
like hooking Siri up to Watson and having technologies
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kao što su spajanje Sirija i Votsona
i dobijemo uređaje
i dobijemo uređaje
04:50
that can understand what we're saying
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koji mogu da razumeju šta govorimo
04:52
and repeat speech back to us.
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i ponove nam govor.
04:54
Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun
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Siri je daleko od savršenog,
i možemo da se smejemo
i možemo da se smejemo
04:57
of her flaws, but we should also keep in mind that
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njenim manama, ali takođe
treba da imamo na umu da
treba da imamo na umu da
05:00
if technologies like Siri and Watson improve
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ako tehnologije kao Siri i Votson napreduju
05:02
along a Moore's Law trajectory, which they will,
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sledeći liniju Murovog zakona, što hoće,
05:06
in six years, they're not going to be two times better
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za šest godina, one neće biti dva puta bolje
05:09
or four times better, they'll be 16 times better than they are right now.
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ili četiri puta bolje, nego će biti 16 puta
bolje nego što su sada.
bolje nego što su sada.
05:14
So I start to think that a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.
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Tako da mislim da će ovo da utiče na mnoge vrste
rada koji koriste znanje.
rada koji koriste znanje.
05:17
And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work.
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I digitalne tehnologije ne zadaju udarce
samo radu u kome se koristi znanje.
samo radu u kome se koristi znanje.
05:21
They're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well.
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One počinju da stežu svoje mišiće
i u fizičkom svetu.
i u fizičkom svetu.
05:25
I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google
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Imao sam priliku pre nekog vremena
da se vozim u Gugl
da se vozim u Gugl
05:27
autonomous car, which is as cool as it sounds. (Laughter)
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autonomnom vozilu, koji je baš tako
kul kao što zvuči. (Smeh)
kul kao što zvuči. (Smeh)
05:33
And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic
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I posvedočiću da se snašao
u kreni-stani saobraćaju
u kreni-stani saobraćaju
05:36
on U.S. 101 very smoothly.
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na putu U.S. 101 vrlo glatko.
05:39
There are about three and a half million people
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Ima oko tri i po miliona ljudi
05:41
who drive trucks for a living in the United States.
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koji voze kamione profesionalno
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
u Sjedinjenim Državama.
05:43
I think some of them are going to be affected by this
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Mislim da će na neke od njih uticati
05:45
technology. And right now, humanoid robots are still
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ova tehnologija.
A sada, humanoidni roboti su još
A sada, humanoidni roboti su još
05:49
incredibly primitive. They can't do very much.
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neverovatno primitivni. Oni ne mogu
da urade mnogo.
da urade mnogo.
05:52
But they're getting better quite quickly, and DARPA,
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Ali napreduju prilično brzo i DARPA,
05:54
which is the investment arm of the Defense Department,
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koja je ruka za investicije Ministarstva odbrane,
05:58
is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
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pokušava da ubrza njihovu putanju.
05:59
So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs.
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Ukratko, da, androidi će preuzeti naše poslove.
06:04
In the short term, we can stimulate job growth
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Na kratak rok, možemo da
podstičemo porast radnih mesta
podstičemo porast radnih mesta
06:08
by encouraging entrepreneurship and by investing
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podsticanjem preduzetništva i ulaganjem
06:11
in infrastructure, because the robots today still aren't
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u infrastrukturu, zato što roboti danas još nisu
06:14
very good at fixing bridges.
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baš dobri u popravljanju mostova.
06:16
But in the not-too-long-term, I think within the lifetimes
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Ali u ne tako dugom periodu,
mislim na životni vek
mislim na životni vek
06:19
of most of the people in this room, we're going to transition
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većine ljudi u ovoj prostoriji,
ući ćemo u tranziciju
ući ćemo u tranziciju
06:22
into an economy that is very productive but that
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ka ekonomiji koja je vrlo produktivna ali kojoj
06:25
just doesn't need a lot of human workers,
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ne treba mnogo ljudskih radnika,
06:28
and managing that transition is going to be
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i rukovođenje tom tranzicijom će biti
06:30
the greatest challenge that our society faces.
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najveći izazov
sa kojim se suočava naše društvo.
sa kojim se suočava naše društvo.
06:33
Voltaire summarized why. He said, "Work saves us
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Volter je sumirao zbog čega.
On kaže: "Rad nas spašava
On kaže: "Rad nas spašava
06:35
from three great evils: boredom, vice and need."
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od tri najveća zla:
dosade, poroka i oskudice."
dosade, poroka i oskudice."
06:41
But despite this challenge, I'm personally,
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Ali uprkos ovom izazovu, ja sam lično,
06:43
I'm still a huge digital optimist, and I am
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još uvek sam veliki digitalni optimista i ja sam
06:46
supremely confident that the digital technologies that we're
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krajnje uveren da će nas digitalne tehnologije koje
06:49
developing now are going to take us into a utopian future,
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sada razvijamo odvesti u utopijsku budućnost,
06:53
not a dystopian future. And to explain why,
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a ne distopijsku.
I da bih objasnio zašto,
I da bih objasnio zašto,
06:56
I want to pose kind of a ridiculously broad question.
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želim da postavim jedno
apsurdno široko pitanje.
apsurdno široko pitanje.
06:58
I want to ask what have been the most important
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Želim da pitam koja su bila najvažnija
07:01
developments in human history?
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dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji?
07:03
Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten
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Želim da podelim sa vama neke od
odgovora koje sam dobio
odgovora koje sam dobio
07:06
in response to this question. It's a wonderful question
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na ovo pitanje.
To je divno postavljeno
To je divno postavljeno
07:08
to ask and to start an endless debate about,
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pitanje da bi počela beskonačna
rasprava oko njega,
rasprava oko njega,
07:10
because some people are going to bring up
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zato što će neki ljudi izneti
07:13
systems of philosophy in both the West and the East that
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filozofske sisteme Zapada i Istoka
07:16
have changed how a lot of people think about the world.
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koji su promenili način na koji mnogi
ljudi razmišljaju o svetu.
ljudi razmišljaju o svetu.
07:19
And then other people will say, "No, actually, the big stories,
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I onda drugi ljudi će reći:
"Ne, u stvari, velike priče,
"Ne, u stvari, velike priče,
07:22
the big developments are the founding of the world's
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velika dostignuća su osnova najvećih svetskih
07:24
major religions, which have changed civilizations
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religija, koje su promenile civilizacije
07:28
and have changed and influenced how countless people
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i promenile i uticale na to
kako nebrojeni ljudi
kako nebrojeni ljudi
07:30
are living their lives." And then some other folk will say,
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žive svoje živote."
I onda neki drugi će reći:
I onda neki drugi će reći:
07:33
"Actually, what changes civilizations, what modifies them
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"U stvari, ono što menja civilizacije,
ono što ih modifikuje
ono što ih modifikuje
07:37
and what changes people's lives
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i što menja živote ljudi
07:39
are empires, so the great developments in human history
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su carstva, tako da su velika
dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji
dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji
07:43
are stories of conquest and of war."
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priče o osvajanju i ratu."
07:46
And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up
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I onda neka vesela duša obično zapeva
07:48
and says, "Hey, don't forget about plagues." (Laughter)
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i kaže: "Hej, ne zaboravite kugu."
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
07:54
There are some optimistic answers to this question,
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Ima nekih optimističkih odgovora na ovo pitanje,
07:57
so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration
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pa će neki ljudi izneti razdoblje
velikih geografskih otkriića.
velikih geografskih otkriića.
07:59
and the opening up of the world.
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i otvaranje sveta.
08:01
Others will talk about intellectual achievements
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Drugi će pričati o intelektualnim dostignućima
08:03
in disciplines like math that have helped us get
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u disciplinama kao što je matematika
koje su nam pomogle
koje su nam pomogle
08:05
a better handle on the world, and other folk will talk about
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da bolje upravljamo svetom,
a drugi će pričati
a drugi će pričati
08:08
periods when there was a deep flourishing
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o periodima kada su cvetali
08:10
of the arts and sciences. So this debate will go on and on.
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umetnost i nauke. Tako će se
ova rasprava nastaviti.
ova rasprava nastaviti.
08:14
It's an endless debate, and there's no conclusive,
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To je beskrajna rasprava,
i ne postoji nijedan zaključni,
i ne postoji nijedan zaključni,
08:17
no single answer to it. But if you're a geek like me,
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jedan odgovor na to.
Ali ako ste štreber kao ja,
Ali ako ste štreber kao ja,
08:20
you say, "Well, what do the data say?"
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reći ćete: "Šta kažu podaci?"
08:23
And you start to do things like graph things that we might
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I počinjete da radite stvari kao što su
grafikoni koji bi nas možda
grafikoni koji bi nas možda
08:26
be interested in, the total worldwide population, for example,
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interesovali, cela svetska populacija na primer
08:30
or some measure of social development,
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ili neka mera društvenog razvoja
08:33
or the state of advancement of a society,
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ili stanje napretka društva,
08:35
and you start to plot the data, because, by this approach,
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i počinjete da povezujete podatke, jer,
po ovom pristupu
po ovom pristupu
08:39
the big stories, the big developments in human history,
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velike priče, velika dostignuća
u ljudskoj istoriji,
u ljudskoj istoriji,
08:41
are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
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su ona koja puno savijaju ove krive.
08:44
So when you do this, and when you plot the data,
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Tako da kad uradite ovo i kad
povežete podatke,
povežete podatke,
08:46
you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.
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vrlo brzo dođete do nekih čudnih zaključaka.
08:49
You conclude, actually, that none of these things
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Zaključite u stvari da ništa od ovih stvari
08:52
have mattered very much. (Laughter)
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nije bilo naročito važno.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
08:57
They haven't done a darn thing to the curves. (Laughter)
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One nisu nimalo uticale na krive.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
09:01
There has been one story, one development
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Bila je jedna priča, jedno dostignuće
09:05
in human history that bent the curve, bent it just about
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u ljudskoj istoriji koje je
savilo krivu, savilo je otprilike
savilo krivu, savilo je otprilike
09:07
90 degrees, and it is a technology story.
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za 90 stepeni i to je tehnološki događaj.
09:11
The steam engine, and the other associated technologies
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Parna mašina i druge povezane tehnologije
09:14
of the Industrial Revolution changed the world
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industrijske revolucije su promenile svet
09:17
and influenced human history so much,
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i uticale na ljudsku istoriju toliko,
09:20
that in the words of the historian Ian Morris,
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da, po rečima istoričara Iana Morisa,
09:22
they made mockery out of all that had come before.
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narugale su se svemu što je bilo pre.
09:26
And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power
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I ovo su uradili tako što su
beskonačno umnožili snagu
beskonačno umnožili snagu
09:29
of our muscles, overcoming the limitations of our muscles.
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naših mišića, prevazilazeći
ograničenja naših mišića.
ograničenja naših mišića.
09:32
Now, what we're in the middle of now
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Ono usred čega se nalazimo sada
09:34
is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains
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je prevazilaženje ograničenja naših
individualnih mozgova
individualnih mozgova
09:37
and infinitely multiplying our mental power.
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i beskonačno umnožavanje
naše mentalne snage.
naše mentalne snage.
09:40
How can this not be as big a deal as overcoming
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Kako to može da ne bude isto tako
važno kao i prevazilaženje
važno kao i prevazilaženje
09:44
the limitations of our muscles?
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ograničenja naših mišića?
09:46
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit, when I look
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Rizikujući da se malo ponavljam,
kad pogledam
kad pogledam
09:50
at what's going on with digital technology these days,
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šta se dešava sa digitalnom tehnologijom danas,
09:53
we are not anywhere near through with this journey,
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nismo ni izbliza gotovi sa ovim putovanjem
09:55
and when I look at what is happening to our economies
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i kad pogledam šta se dešava sa
našim ekonomijama
našim ekonomijama
09:58
and our societies, my single conclusion is that
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i našim društvima,
moj jedini zaključak je da
moj jedini zaključak je da
10:01
we ain't seen nothing yet. The best days are really ahead.
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nismo još ništa videli. Najbolji dani su
u stvari ispred nas.
u stvari ispred nas.
10:04
Let me give you a couple examples.
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Da vam dam nekoliko primera.
10:06
Economies don't run on energy. They don't run on capital,
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Ekonomije ne pokreće energija.
Njih ne pokreće kapital,
Njih ne pokreće kapital,
10:10
they don't run on labor. Economies run on ideas.
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ne pokreće ih radna snaga.
Ekonomije pokreću ideje.
Ekonomije pokreću ideje.
10:14
So the work of innovation, the work of coming up with
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Tako da rad na inovacijama,
rad na pronalaženju
rad na pronalaženju
10:17
new ideas, is some of the most powerful,
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novih ideja, jedan je od najsnažnijih,
10:19
some of the most fundamental work that we can do
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jedan od najosnovnijih radova
koje možemo da obavljamo
koje možemo da obavljamo
10:21
in an economy. And this is kind of how we used to do innovation.
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u ekonomiji.
Ovako smo radili na inovaciji.
Ovako smo radili na inovaciji.
10:25
We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people
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Našli bi gomilu ljudi
koji prilično liče jedni na druge
koji prilično liče jedni na druge
10:29
— (Laughter) —
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- (Smeh) -
10:32
we'd take them out of elite institutions, we'd put them into
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izvadili bismo ih iz elitnih
institucija, stavili bismo ih u
institucija, stavili bismo ih u
10:35
other elite institutions, and we'd wait for the innovation.
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druge elitne institucije
i čekali na inovaciju.
i čekali na inovaciju.
10:38
Now — (Laughter) —
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Sad - (Smeh) -
10:42
as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT
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kao belac koji je proveo celu
svoju karijeru na MIT-u
svoju karijeru na MIT-u
10:44
and Harvard, I got no problem with this. (Laughter)
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i Harvardu, ja nemam problem s tim.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
10:51
But some other people do, and they've kind of crashed
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Ali neki drugi ljudi imaju
i oni su nekako upali
i oni su nekako upali
10:53
the party and loosened up the dress code of innovation.
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na žurku i olabavili kodeks
odevanja inovacije.
odevanja inovacije.
10:56
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:57
So here are the winners of a Top Coder programming challenge,
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Evo pobednika "Top koder"
takmičenja u programiranju
takmičenja u programiranju
11:00
and I assure you that nobody cares
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i uveravam vas da nikog nije briga
11:03
where these kids grew up, where they went to school,
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gde su ovi klinci odrasli,
gde su išli u školu
gde su išli u školu
11:07
or what they look like. All anyone cares about
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ili kako izgledaju.
Sve što ikoga zanima
Sve što ikoga zanima
11:09
is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas.
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je kvalitet rada, kvalitet ideja.
11:12
And over and over again, we see this happening
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I opet iznova, vidimo da se ovo dešava
11:14
in the technology-facilitated world.
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u svetu koji je olakšan tehnologijom.
11:17
The work of innovation is becoming more open,
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Rad na inovaciji postaje otvoreniji,
11:19
more inclusive, more transparent, and more merit-based,
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uključeniji, transparentniji i više
zasnovan na zaslugama,
zasnovan na zaslugama,
11:23
and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard
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i to će se nastaviti bez obzira
šta MIT i Harvard
šta MIT i Harvard
11:26
think of it, and I couldn't be happier about that development.
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misle o tome i ja ne mogu biti
srećniji zbog tog razvoja.
srećniji zbog tog razvoja.
11:29
I hear once in a while, "Okay, I'll grant you that,
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Čujem ponekad:
"Okej, priznajem to,
"Okej, priznajem to,
11:32
but technology is still a tool for the rich world,
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ali tehnologija je još uvek alat za bogati svet
11:35
and what's not happening, these digital tools are not
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i ono što se ne dešava,
je da ovi digitalni alati ne
je da ovi digitalni alati ne
11:38
improving the lives of people at the bottom of the pyramid."
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poboljšavaju živote ljudi na dnu piramide."
11:41
And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense.
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I ja želim da kažem vrlo jasno: gluposti.
11:44
The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology.
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Dno piramide ima ogromne koristi od tehnologije.
11:47
The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study
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Ekonomista Robert Džensen je
uradio ovu divnu studiju
uradio ovu divnu studiju
11:50
a while back where he watched, in great detail,
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pre nekog vremena gde smo
videli, jako detaljno,
videli, jako detaljno,
11:53
what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India,
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šta se desilo sa ribarskim selima
u Kerali, u Indiji,
u Kerali, u Indiji,
11:57
when they got mobile phones for the very first time,
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kada su dobili mobilne telefone prvi put,
12:00
and when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics,
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i kada pišete za
"Quarterly Journal of Economics",
"Quarterly Journal of Economics",
12:02
you have to use very dry and very circumspect language,
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morate da koristite vrlo suv i oprezan jezik
12:05
but when I read his paper, I kind of feel Jensen is trying
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ali kada čitam ove novine, imam utisak
da Džensen pokušava
da Džensen pokušava
12:08
to scream at us, and say, look, this was a big deal.
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da nam vikne, i kaže: vidite, ovo je
bila velika stvar.
bila velika stvar.
12:11
Prices stabilized, so people could plan their economic lives.
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Cene su stabilizovane, tako da ljudi mogu da
planiraju svoje živote.
planiraju svoje živote.
12:15
Waste was not reduced; it was eliminated.
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Otpad nije smanjen; eliminisan je.
12:19
And the lives of both the buyers and the sellers
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I životi i kupaca i prodavaca
12:21
in these villages measurably improved.
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u ovim selima su se primetno poboljšali.
12:24
Now, what I don't think is that Jensen got extremely lucky
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Ne mislim da je Džensen
imao neverovatnu sreću
imao neverovatnu sreću
12:28
and happened to land in the one set of villages
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i da se slučajno zaustavio
u jednom skupu sela
u jednom skupu sela
12:30
where technology made things better.
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gde je tehnologija poboljšala stvari.
12:32
What happened instead is he very carefully documented
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Ono što se u stvari desilo je da je
on brižljivo dokumentovao
on brižljivo dokumentovao
12:35
what happens over and over again when technology
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šta se dešava stalno iznova kada tehnologija
12:38
comes for the first time to an environment and a community.
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stigne po prvi put u okolinu i u zajednicu.
12:41
The lives of people, the welfares of people, improve dramatically.
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Životi ljudi, blagostanja ljudi,
poboljšavaju se dramatično.
poboljšavaju se dramatično.
12:45
So as I look around at all the evidence, and I think about
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Tako da kad se osvrnem na
sve dokaze i pomislim na
sve dokaze i pomislim na
12:47
the room that we have ahead of us, I become a huge
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prostor koji imamo ispred nas,
postajem veliki
postajem veliki
12:50
digital optimist, and I start to think that this wonderful
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digitalni optimista, i počinjem da
mislim da ona divna
mislim da ona divna
12:53
statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson
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izjava fizičara Frimena Dajsona
12:56
is actually not hyperbole. This is an accurate assessment of what's going on.
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nije u stvari hiperbola. To je tačna
procena onoga što se dešava.
procena onoga što se dešava.
13:00
Our digital -- our technologies are great gifts,
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Naše digitalne - naše tehnologije su veliki pokloni,
13:03
and we, right now, have the great good fortune
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i mi sada imamo veliku sreću
13:06
to be living at a time when digital technology is flourishing,
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da živimo u vreme
kad digitalna tehnologija cveta,
kad digitalna tehnologija cveta,
13:09
when it is broadening and deepening and
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kada se širi i produbljuje
13:11
becoming more profound all around the world.
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i postaje temeljnija širom sveta.
13:14
So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,
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I da, androidi preuzimaju naše poslove,
13:18
but focusing on that fact misses the point entirely.
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ali fokusiranjem na tu činjenicu,
potpuno se propušta poenta.
potpuno se propušta poenta.
13:21
The point is that then we are freed up to do other things,
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Poenta je da smo onda slobodni
da radimo druge stvari,
da radimo druge stvari,
13:25
and what we are going to do, I am very confident,
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i ono što ćemo da uradimo,
ubeđen sam,
ubeđen sam,
13:27
what we're going to do is reduce poverty and drudgery
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ono što ćemo da uradimo je to da ćemo
da smanjimo siromaštvo i kulučenje
da smanjimo siromaštvo i kulučenje
13:30
and misery around the world. I'm very confident
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i bedu širom sveta.
Ubeđen sam
Ubeđen sam
13:33
we're going to learn to live more lightly on the planet,
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naučićemo da živimo lakše na planeti,
13:36
and I am extremely confident that what we're going to do
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i krajnje sam ubeđen da ono što ćemo uraditi
13:40
with our new digital tools is going to be so profound
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sa našim novim digitalnim alatima
će biti toliko duboko
će biti toliko duboko
13:43
and so beneficial that it's going to make a mockery
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i toliko korisno da će izvrgnuti ruglu
13:45
out of everything that came before.
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sve što je bilo pre.
13:47
I'm going to leave the last word to a guy who had
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Ostaviću zadnju reč čoveku koji je bio
13:50
a front row seat for digital progress,
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u prvim redovima digitalnog napretka,
13:52
our old friend Ken Jennings. I'm with him.
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našem starom prijatelju Kenu
Dženingsu. Slažem se s njim.
Dženingsu. Slažem se s njim.
13:54
I'm going to echo his words:
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Ponoviću njegove reči:
13:56
"I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords." (Laughter)
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"Poželeću, za početak, dobrodošlicu našim novim kompjuterskim gospodarima." (Smeh)
14:00
Thanks very much. (Applause)
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Hvala puno.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Andrew McAfee - Management theoristAndrew McAfee studies how information technology affects businesses and society.
Why you should listen
Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses, business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the way companies perform, organize themselves and compete. At a higher level, his work also investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy and the workforce.
He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business at the MIT Sloan School of Management. His books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.
Andrew McAfee | Speaker | TED.com