TED2004
Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of crack dealing
Stiven Levit analizira ekonomiju kreka
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Stiven Levit, autor Frikonomije predstavlja nove podatke o finansijama u dilovanju droge. Nasuprot popularnom verovanju, on tvrdi da prodavanje kreka na ćošku nije unosan posao: plaća se ispod minimalca. A šef može i da ubije.
Steven Levitt - Economist
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,
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Biće vam drago da čujete da neću pričati o svojoj,
00:30
but other people's tragedy.
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već o tuđoj nesreći.
00:31
It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own,
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Mnogo je lakše biti nonšalantan kada je tuđa nesreća u pitanju,
00:35
and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
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a ja želim da govorim u duhu ove konferencije.
00:37
So, if you believe the media accounts,
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Dakle, ako verujete medijima,
00:42
being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic
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život dilera droge u slavnim danima kada je vladala epidemija krek kokaina,
00:46
was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.
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bio je glamurozan, po rečima Virdžinije Postrel.
00:51
There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,
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Tu je bilo novca, droge, oružja, žena,
00:55
you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.
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šta god vam padne na pamet – nakit, kajle - svega je bilo.
00:59
What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,
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Danas ću vam ispričati kako zapravo, na osnovu deset godina istraživanja,
01:05
a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --
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i jedinstvene prilike da uđemo u bandu -
01:07
to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --
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da vidimo poslovne knjige, podatke o finansijama bande -
01:10
that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life.
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nismo dobili potvrdan odgovor da biti u bandi omogućuje glamurozan život.
01:16
But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --
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Zapravo, realno je reći da biti u bandi -
01:19
selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.
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prodavati drogu za bandu - jeste možda i najgori posao u Americi.
01:23
And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.
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U to bih danas želeo i vas da ubedim.
01:26
So there are three things I want to do.
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Zapravo želim da postignem tri stvari.
01:27
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine
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Najpre želim da objasnim kako je i zašto krek kokain
01:31
had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.
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tako značajno uticao na ulične bande.
01:36
Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me
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Zatim želim da vam objasnim kako je neko poput mene
01:42
came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang.
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stekao uvid u funkcionisanje bande.
01:46
It's an interesting story, I think.
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Mislim da je to zanimljiva priča.
01:47
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,
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I na trećem mestu, želim površno da vam ispričam o
01:50
about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at
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nekim stvarima koje smo otkrili kada smo stekli uvid u
01:53
the financial records -- the books -- of the gang.
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finansijske podatke - poslovne knjige bande.
01:56
So before I do that, just one warning, which is that
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Pre toga, jedno upozorenje,
02:01
this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America.
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ova prezentacija je dobila R rejting od Američke filmske asocijacije.
02:06
It contains adult themes, adult language.
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Sadrži teme za odrasle i nepristojne izraze.
02:09
Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know that in fact
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Znajući ko je na pozornici, biće vam drago da čujete da
02:12
there'll be no nudity,
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neće biti golotinje,
02:13
barring a --
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mada -
02:14
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:17
-- unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
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- neočekivani problemi sa odećom nisu nemogući .
02:19
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:25
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang.
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Za početak, pričaću o krek kokainu i kako je preobrazio bande.
02:30
And to do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,
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Da bi to shvatili moramo da se vratimo u vreme pre krek kokaina,
02:33
in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.
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u rane osamdesete, i da stvari posmatramo iz perspektive vođe bande.
02:36
So being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s.
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Biti vođa bande u getu i nije bilo tako loše sredinom osamdesetih.
02:43
In the early '80s, some would say.
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Neki bi rekli početkom osamdesetih.
02:44
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --
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Jer onda imaš znatnu moć, možeš da prebijaš ljude -
02:47
you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.
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imaš mnogo prestiža i poštovanja.
02:50
But there was no money in it, OK?
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Ali u tome nije bilo novca, razumete?
02:52
The gang had no way to make money.
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Banda nije nikako mogla da zaradi novac.
02:54
And you couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,
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I nije mogla da naplaćuje članstvo ljudima u bandi,
02:56
because the people in the gang didn't have any money.
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jer ti ljudi nisu imali novac.
02:59
You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana.
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Nije se mogao zaraditi ozbiljan novac prodajom marihuane.
03:01
Marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.
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Marihuana je previše jeftina, kako se ispostavilo.
03:04
You can't get rich selling marijuana.
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Ne možeš se obogatiti prodajući marihuanu.
03:06
You couldn't sell cocaine.
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Kokain nisi mogao da prodaješ.
03:08
You know, cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --
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Kapirate, kokain je super proizvod - kokain u prahu -
03:10
but you've got to know rich white people.
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ali morate da poznajete bogate belce.
03:12
And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people --
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A većina članova gradskih bandi nije znala bogate belce -
03:15
they couldn't sell to that market.
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nisu mogli da prodaju na tom tržištu.
03:17
You couldn't really do petty crime, either.
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Nisi mogao da se baviš ni sitnim kriminalom.
03:18
It turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.
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Ispostavlja se da je sitan kriminal užasan način da se zaradi za život.
03:20
So, as a result,
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Tako da, kad se sve sabere,
03:22
as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --
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kao vođa bande, imao si, znaš kao, moć.
03:25
it's a pretty good life --
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To je dosta dobar život.
03:26
but the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother.
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Al’ radi se o tome da na kraju, ipak živiš kući kod mame.
03:29
And so it wasn't really a career.
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Tako da to nije prava karijera.
03:31
It was something that --
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To je više kao --
03:32
it's just there were limits to how powerful and important you could be
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jednostavno postoji granica koliko moćan i važan možeš da budeš
03:34
if you had to live at home with your mother.
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ako moraš da živiš sa mamom.
03:37
Then along comes crack cocaine.
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A onda se pojavio krek kokain.
03:40
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the
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Prema rečima Malkoma Gledvela, krek kokain je bio
03:44
extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city.
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varijanta paradajz sosa sa krupno seckanim paradajzom, za geto.
03:47
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:49
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.
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Jer krek kokain je bio neverovatna novina.
03:51
I don't have time to talk about it today.
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Danas nemam vremena da pričam o tome.
03:53
But if you think about it, I would say that in the last twenty-five years,
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Ali ako razmislite, moglo bi se reći da u poslednjih dvadeset pet godina,
03:57
of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,
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od svih izuma i inovacija koje su se desile u zemlji,
04:00
the biggest one, in terms of impact on the well-being of people
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najveći, po uticaju koji je imao na dobrobit ljudi
04:05
who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine.
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koji žive u getu, jeste krek kokain.
04:07
And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.
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I to negativan - ne pozitivan, već negativan.
04:10
It had a huge impact on life.
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Imao je ogroman uticaj na život.
04:11
So what was it about crack cocaine?
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Pa, u čemu je stvar sa krek kokainom?
04:13
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.
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To je bio odličan način za "dizanje" mozga.
04:18
Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --
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Jer krek kokain se može pušiti - kokain u prahu ne može se pušiti -
04:23
and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism at delivering a high
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a pušenje je mnogo efikasniji mehanizam za "dizanje"
04:26
than is snorting it.
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od ušmrkavanja.
04:28
And it turned out, there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,
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I onda se ispostavilo da postoji "publika" koja nije ni znala da želi krek kokain,
04:33
but, when it came, it really did.
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ali kada se pojavio, stvarno ga je želela.
04:35
And it was a perfect drug. You could sell for --
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I to je bila savršena droga. Mogao se prodati -
04:38
buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars.
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kupiš kokain koji se stavlja u njega za dolar, prodaš za pet dolara.
04:42
Highly addictive -- the high was very short.
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Stvara jaku zavisnost - "dizanje" traje kratko.
04:44
So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high.
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Na petnaest minuta, dobiješ neviđeno "dizanje".
04:47
And then, when you come down, all you want to do is get high again.
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A onda, kada se spustiš, sve što želiš je da ponoviš iskustvo.
04:51
It created a wonderful market.
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Stvorilo se sjajno tržište.
04:53
And for the people who were there running the gang,
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A za ljude koji su bili u tome kao vođe bandi,
04:56
it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.
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bio je to, naizgled, odličan način da se zaradi puno novca.
04:59
At least for the people in the top.
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Barem za ljude na vrhu.
05:02
So this is where we enter the picture.
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Na ovom mestu mi stupamo na scenu.
05:03
Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.
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Zapravo ne ja - ja sam ustvari sporedan lik u ovoj priči.
05:06
My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.
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Moj koautor Sudir Venkateš je glavni lik.
05:09
So he was a math major in college who had a good heart,
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On je bio student matematike na fakultetu, a dobro srce
05:14
and decided he wanted to get a sociology Ph.D.,
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ga je povuklo da se opredeli za doktorat iz sociologije.
05:17
came to the University of Chicago.
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Došao je na Univerzitet u Čikagu.
05:19
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent
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Uzgred, tri meseca pre dolaska u Čikago proveo je
05:23
following the Grateful Dead.
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prateći "Grateful Dead" na turneji.
05:24
And, in his own words, he "looked like a freak."
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I po sopstvenim rečima, "izgledao je kao čudak".
05:28
He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.
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On je poreklom iz južne Azije, veoma tamnoput azijat.
05:32
Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."
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Krupan čovek, sa kosom, po sopstvenim rečima „do dupeta“.
05:36
Defied all kinds of boundaries: Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?
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Prkosio je svim kalupima: da li je bio crnac ili belac? Muškarac ili žena?
05:40
He was really a curious sight to be seen.
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Uistinu je bio neobičan na prvi pogled.
05:43
So he showed up at the University of Chicago.
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I tako se pojavio na Univerzitetu u Čikagu.
05:45
And the famous sociologist, William Julius Wilson,
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A poznati sociolog Vilijam Džulijus Vilson
05:48
was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.
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radio je na knjizi za koju je trebalo anketirati ljude po celom Čikagu.
05:54
And he took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,
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Bacio je jedan pogled na Sudira, koji je trebalo da radi ankete za njega
05:57
and decided he knew exactly the place to send him --
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i znao je tačno na koje mesto da ga pošalje -
06:00
which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects.
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u jedan od najžešćih, najozloglašenih blokova.
06:03
And not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
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I to ne samo u Čikagu, već u celoj Americi.
06:05
So Sudhir -- the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city --
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Tako je Sudir - dečko iz predgrađa koji zapravo nikada nije ni bio u getu -
06:09
dutifully took his clipboard and, you know, walked down to this housing project.
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poslušno uzeo fasciklu i, pogađate, odšetao u te blokove.
06:14
Gets to the first building.
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Stigao je do prve zgrade.
06:16
The first building? Well, there's nobody there.
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Prva zgrada? Pa, tamo nije bilo nikoga.
06:19
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell, so he climbs up the stairwell.
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Ali on je čuo glasove gore na stepeništu, i popeo se uz stepenište.
06:24
And he comes around the corner --
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I kada je izašao iza ugla -
06:25
finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
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naišao je na grupu mladih afro-amerikanaca koji bacaju kockice.
06:31
This is about 1990 -- peak of the crack epidemic.
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Ovo se dešava 1990 - epidemija kreka je u jeku.
06:34
This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang -- you don't like to be surprised.
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Biti u bandi je opasan posao - ne želite da vas neko iznenadi.
06:37
You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.
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Ne želite da vas iznenade ljudi koji se pojavljuju iza ugla.
06:41
And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.
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Mantra je bila: prvo pucaj pa postavljaj pitanja.
06:44
Now, Sudhir was lucky.
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E, Sudir je imao sreće.
06:45
He was such a freak --
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Delovao je tako čudno -
06:47
and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured
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a i ona fascikla mu je verovatno spasila život, jer su shvatili
06:49
no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
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da niko iz suparničke bande ne bi došao da ih upuca sa fasciklom.
06:52
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:54
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,
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Nije naišao na naročito topao doček, ali su rekli,
06:58
well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.
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pa, 'ajde - da čujemo ta pitanja iz tvoje ankete.
07:02
So, I kid you not, the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was,
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I, ne zezam vas, prvo pitanje u anketi koje je poslat da pita bilo je:
07:07
"How do you feel about being poor and black in America?"
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"Kakav je osećaj biti siromašan crnac u Americi?“
07:08
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:13
Makes you wonder about academics, OK?
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Da se čovek zapita o tim naučnicima, jel’ da?
07:14
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:16
So the choice of answers were: very good, good, bad and very bad.
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A ponuđeni odgovori su bili: veoma dobro, dobro, loše, veoma loše.
07:24
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following --
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Kako je Sudir otkrio, ustvari, pravi odgovor je bio sledeći -
07:27
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:32
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.
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Anketa na kraju nije bila od pomoći da se Sudir izvuče iz situacije.
07:35
He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.
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Držali su ga kao taoca na stepeništu tu noć.
07:39
There was a lot of gunfire;
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Bilo je puno pucnjave -
07:40
there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.
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puno filosofskih rasprava sa pripadnicima bande.
07:44
By morning, the gang leader arrived,
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Do jutra, stigao je vođa bande.
07:45
checked out Sudhir,
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Procenio je Sudira -
07:46
decided he was no threat and they let him go home.
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zaključio da nije pretnja i pustili su ga kući.
07:49
So Sudhir went home. Took a shower, took a nap.
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I Sudir je otišao kući. Istuširao se, pa odremao.
07:52
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,
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Vi ili ja, najverovatnije bi u toj situaciji pomislili,
07:57
well, I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead.
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šta je tu je, izgleda da ću pisati disertaciju na temu "The Greatful Dead".
08:00
I've been following them for the last three months.
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Njih sam pratio poslednja tri meseca.
08:01
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:02
Sudhir, on the other hand, got right back -- walked down to the housing project.
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Međutim, Sudir se odmah vratio - odšetao do blokova.
08:07
Went up to the floor, the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys.
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Popeo se na sprat, drugi sprat, i rekao: „E ljudi,
08:11
I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,
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toliko mi je bilo dobro zezanje sa vama sinoć,
08:13
I wonder if I could do it again tonight."
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da li bismo mogli da ponovimo večeras?“
08:14
And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship
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Bio je to početak, ispostaviće se, divnog odnosa,
08:18
that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years:
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gde je Sudir povremeno i živeo u bloku tokom deset godina:
08:22
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,
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visio po krek kućama, išao u zatvor sa članovima bande,
08:27
having the car-windows shot out of his car,
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doživeo da mu pucnjem raznesu staklo na kolima,
08:29
having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --
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da mu policija upadne u stan i ukrade kompjuterske diskove -
08:32
you name it.
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šta sve ne.
08:34
But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,
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Ali na kraju, priča ima srećan kraj za Sudira,
08:37
who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.
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postao je jedan od najcenjenijih sociologa u zemlji.
08:40
And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,
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A posebno za mene, jer sam sedeo u kancelariji sa otvorenim "Excel" listom,
08:45
waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data
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čekao Sudira da dođe i isporuči najnoviji paket podataka -
08:48
that he would get from the gang.
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koje je dobijao od bande.
08:54
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --
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Naša saradnja ubraja se među najmanje ravnopravne svih vremena -
08:57
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:58
-- but I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
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ali ja sam bio zadovoljan onim što sam dobio iz nje.
09:02
So what do we find? What do we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing.
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I šta smo saznali? Šta smo naučili o bandi? Pa, jednu stvar ću reći.
09:09
We really got access to everybody in the gang.
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Stvarno su nam svi u bandi bili dostupni.
09:13
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.
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Imali smo pogled iznutra na bandu, od samog dna do samog vrha.
09:16
They trusted Sudhir -- in ways that really no academic has ever --
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Verovali su Sudiru - zaista nijedan naučnik ikada -
09:21
or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,
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zapravo iko, bilo koji autsajder - nikada nije imao takvo poverenje bandi,
09:26
to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me:
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dotle da su mu omogućili pristup onome što je meni bilo najzanimljivije:
09:29
their books, their financial records that they kept.
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poslovnim knjigama, finansijama koje su vodili.
09:32
And they made them available to us.
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I stavili su ih nama na raspolaganje.
09:33
And we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
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I ne samo da smo mogli da ih proučavamo, već smo mogli i da im postavljamo pitanja o nihovom sadržaju.
09:36
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have
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Ako bih morao da ukratko opišem, smestim u par minuta koliko imam,
09:41
what the sort of bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,
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neko osnovno saznanje koje sam stekao od bande,
09:45
is that if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization,
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ako bih morao da povučem paralelu između bande i bilo koje druge organizacije,
09:50
it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's.
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zaključio bih da je banda skroz kao Mekdonalds.
09:54
In a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.
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U pogledu mnogih stvari - restoran Mekdonalds.
09:56
So first, in one way -- which isn't maybe the most interesting way,
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Kao prvo, jedna stvar - koja možda nije najzanimljivija,
09:59
but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized --
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ali je dobra za početak - jeste način organizovanja.
10:02
the hierarchy of the gang, the way it looks.
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Hijerarhija bande: kako izgleda.
10:04
So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.
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Evo kako izgleda grafikon organizacione strukture bande.
10:07
I don't know if any of you know very much about org charts,
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Ne znam da li iko od vas zna puno o grafikonima organizacione strukture,
10:09
but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,
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ali ako biste prikazali osnovnu, uprošćenu organizacionu strukturu Mekdonaldsa,
10:12
this is exactly what the org chart would look like.
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grafikon bi upravo ovako izgledao.
10:15
Now, it's amazing, but the top level of the gang,
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A zanimljivo je da vrh bande
10:18
they actually call themselves the "board of directors."
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zapravo sebe i zove „upravnim odborom“.
10:20
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:21
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated kind of view
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A Sudir kaže da ovi ljudi nemaju baš istančanu sliku
10:28
of like, what happened in American corporate life.
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o tome šta se dešava u životu američkih korporacija.
10:30
But they had seen movies like "Wall Street," and they kind of had learned
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Ali, gledali su filmove kao što je Vol strit,i nešto su kao naučili
10:33
a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world.
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o životu u stvarnom svetu.
10:38
Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VPs --
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Sad, ispod tog upravnog odbora, nalaze se regionalni direktori -
10:42
people who control, say, the south side of Chicago, or the west side of Chicago.
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ljudi koji, na primer, kontrolišu južni Čikago, ili zapadni Čikago.
10:45
Now, Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment
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Sad, Sudir je dobro upoznao lika koji je imao nesrećni zadatak
10:49
of trying to take the Iowa franchise.
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da pokuša da uspostavi franšizu u Ajovi.
10:51
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:52
Which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant
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Što se ispostavilo, za ovu crnačku bandu, kao ne tako sjajan
10:56
financial endeavors that they undertook.
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finansijski poduhvat.
10:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:59
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.
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Ali stvar koja je bandu stvarno činila tako sličnom Mekdonaldsu jesu vođe franšiza.
11:04
That the guys who are running, you know, the local gangs --
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Činjenica je da su likovi koji su vodili lokalne bande -
11:08
the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --
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područja pojedinih blokova sačinjena od 4x4 ulica -
11:11
they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.
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na neki način isti kao likovi koji drže Mekdonalds restorane.
11:14
They are the entrepreneurs.
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Oni su preduzetnici.
11:16
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.
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Imaju ekskluzivna imovinska prava da kontrolišu prodaju droge.
11:20
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.
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Iza sebe imaju ime bande, za prodaju i marketing.
11:27
And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,
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I oni su ti koji u osnovi stvaraju ili gube dobit,
11:30
depending on how good they are at running the business.
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zavisno od toga koliko dobro vode posao.
11:32
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom,
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E sad, zapravo, grupa o kojoj bih da vas navedem da razmišljate jesu oni na dnu,
11:36
the foot soldiers.
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pešadija.
11:38
These are the teenagers, typically,
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Obično su to tinejdžeri,
11:40
who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.
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koji stoje na ćošku i prodaju drogu.
11:43
Extremely dangerous work.
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Krajnje opasan posao.
11:46
And important to note that almost all of the weight, all of the people
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I važno je da se zapazi da skoro sva težina, svi ljudi
11:51
in this organization are at the bottom.
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u organizaciji jesu na dnu.
11:52
OK, just like McDonald's.
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Znači, baš kao u Mekdonaldsu.
11:54
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people
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U neku ruku, pešadinci su kao ljudi
11:57
who are taking your order at McDonald's.
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koji uzimaju vašu porudžbinu u Mekdonaldsu.
11:59
And indeed, it's not just by chance that they're like them.
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I stvarno, nije sasvim slučajno da liče na njih.
12:01
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.
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Zapravo, u ovim delovima grada, to su isti ljudi.
12:03
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually --
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Isti klinci koji rade za bandu u stvari -
12:07
at the very same time, they would typically be working part-time
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istovremeno, po pravilu rade i pola radnog vremena
12:10
at a place like McDonald's.
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na nekom mestu kao što je Mekdonalds.
12:12
Which already, I think, foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,
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Već samo to, po meni, najavljuje osnovni nalaz koji sam već pomenuo,
12:15
about what a crappy job it was being in the gang.
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kako je pripadnost bandi zeznut posao.
12:18
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,
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Očigledno je, ako je pripadnost bandi divan, unosan posao,
12:21
why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?
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što bi iko od ovih momaka imao drugi posao u Mekdonaldsu?
12:25
So what do the wages look like? So you might be surprised.
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A kako stvari stoje sa platom? Možda ćete se iznenaditi.
12:28
But based on the actual --
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Ali na osnovu pravih -
12:29
you know, being able to talk to them, and to see their records,
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znate, priče sa njima, pregledanja finansija,
12:32
this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.
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ovako stvari stoje sa platom.
12:34
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 in an hour.
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Nadoknada koju su zarađivali pešadinci bila je 3.50 dolara po satu.
12:38
It was below the minimum wage, OK? And this is well documented.
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To je ispod minimalca, da? I ovo je podržano dokazima.
12:42
It's easy to see, by the patterns of consumption they have.
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Jasno se vidi, po njihovim navikama trošenja.
12:44
It really is not fiction -- it's fact.
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Zaista se ne radi o izmišljotini - to je činjenica.
12:47
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
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Jako je malo para u bandi, naročito na dnu.
12:51
Now if you managed to rise up -- say, and be that local leader,
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Sad, ako se uspete lestvicom - recimo do lokalnog šefa,
12:55
the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee --
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lika koji je u rangu vlasnika Mekdonaldsove franšize -
12:57
you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.
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zarađivali biste 100,000 dolara godišnje.
12:59
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get
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I to je, na neki način, najbolji posao kome biste mogli da se nadate
13:03
if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.
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ako ste odrasli u jednom od ovih krajeva grada, kao mladi crni muškarac.
13:06
If you managed to rise to the very top,
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Ako biste se uspeli na sam vrh,
13:08
200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.
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200,000 ili 400,000 dolara je ono čemu biste mogli da se nadate kao zaradi.
13:11
Truly, you would be a great success story.
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Uistinu, to bi bila super priča o uspehu.
13:14
And one of the sad parts of this is that indeed, among the many other ramifications
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I ono što je tužno u svemu ovome je da zapravo, uz druge nepredviđene posledice
13:19
of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities --
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krek kokaina, najtalentovaniji pojedinci u ovim zajednicama -
13:24
this is what they were striving for.
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to je ono čemu su težili.
13:25
They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,
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Nisu pokušavali da ostvare uspeh na legitiman način,
13:28
because there were no legitimate channels out.
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jer nije bilo legitimnog izlaza.
13:30
This was the best way out.
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Ovo je bio najbolji način da se pobegne odatle.
13:32
And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out -- this way.
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I ustvari je to bio pravi izbor, najverovatnije, pokušaj da se izlaz nađe na ovaj način.
13:37
You look at this --
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Pogledajte sledeće.
13:40
the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.
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Poređenje sa Mekdonaldsom ovde se prekida.
13:43
The money looks about the same.
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Novčana strana izgleda približno isto.
13:44
Why is it such a bad job?
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Zašto je to tako loš posao?
13:46
Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody
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Pa, loš je stoga što vrlo često
13:49
shooting at you a lot of the time.
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neko puca na vas.
13:51
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?
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I, sa pucnjavom, kolika je stopa smrtnosti?
13:54
We found in our gang -- and, admittedly, this was not really
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Kako smo videli u našoj bandi - i, treba reći, ovo nije zapravo bila
13:57
sort of a standard situation;
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uobičajena situacija.
13:59
this was a time of intense violence -- of a lot of gang wars --
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U to vreme dešavalo se intenzivno nasilje - puno ratova bandi -
14:03
as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs.
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dok je ova banda postala dosta uspešna. Ali cena je plaćena.
14:07
And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested,
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Tako da je smrtnost - da ne pominjem učestalost hapšenja,
14:12
sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample
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odlaska u zatvor, ranjavanja - stopa smrtnosti u našem uzorku
14:16
was seven percent per person per year.
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bila je 7 procenata po osobi godišnje.
14:19
You're in the gang for four years; you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.
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Ako ste u bandi četiri godine, gledate u verovatnoću da ćete umreti od 25 procenata.
14:25
That is about as high as you can get.
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Ovo su naviše moguće stope.
14:27
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life
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Poređenja radi, razmislimo o nekim drugim zanimanjima
14:32
where you may expect might be extremely risky.
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za koje možete očekivati da su izuzetno riskantna.
14:34
Like let's say that you were a murderer
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Evo, recimo da ste ubica
14:36
and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.
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osuđen za ubistvo, i na listi ste za izvršenje smrtne kazne.
14:39
It turns out, the death rates on death row --
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Ispostavlja se da je stopa smrtnosti ljudi na listi za pogubljenje -
14:41
from all causes, including execution -- two percent a year.
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uključujući pogubljenje i druge uzroke smrti - dva procenta godišnje.
14:44
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:45
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street.
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Tako da je mnogo sigurnije čekati izvršenje smrtne presude nego prodavati drogu na ulici.
14:52
That makes you pause -- gives you some pause -- those of you who believe
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To čini da se čovek zamisli - daje materijal za razmišljanje -- za vas koji verujete
14:55
that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.
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da će smrtna kazna imati ogroman uticaj na sprečavanje kriminala.
14:59
Now to give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --
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Da bih vam dočarao koliko je zapravo bilo loše stanje u getu u doba kreka -
15:04
and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,
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i nije da se fokusiram samo na negativne stvari,
15:07
but really, there's another story to tell you there --
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ali stvarno moram da vam ispričam još jednu priču -
15:10
if you look at the death rates --
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ako pogledate stope smrtnosti -
15:11
just of random, young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States --
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nasumice, mladih crnih muškaraca koji odrastaju u getu u SADu -
15:16
the death rates during crack were about one percent.
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stope smrtnosti u doba kreka bile su jedan odsto.
15:19
That's extremely high.
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To je izuzetno visoko.
15:20
And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.
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I radi se o nasilnoj smrti - to je neverovatno, na neki način.
15:23
To put it into perspective, if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,
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Da stavimo to u kontekst, ako uporedite to sa podacima o vojnicima u Iraku,
15:28
for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.
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koji na primer, upravo sada vode rat: 0.5 procenta.
15:32
So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up
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Tako da su bukvalno mladi crni muškarci koji su rasli
15:36
in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense of
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u ovoj zemlji živeli u ratnoj zoni, na isti način
15:40
the way that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
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kao vojnici u Iraku koji se bore u ratu.
15:46
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out
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Pa zašto bi onda, možete se pitati, iko pristao da stoji
15:52
on a street corner selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,
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na ćošku i prodaje drogu za 3.50 dolara na sat,
15:55
with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?
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uz verovatnoću od 25 procenata da će umreti u naredne četiri godine?
15:58
Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers.
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Zašto bi to radili? Mislim da ima nekoliko odgovora.
16:03
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.
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Prvi se mislim nalazi u tome da ih je prevarila istorija.
16:09
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage.
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Nekada je banda predstavljala deo odrastanja.
16:11
That the young people controlled the gang -- that, as you got older,
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Mladi ljudi su kontrolisali bandu - a, kako se odrasta,
16:14
you dropped out of the gang.
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izlazi se iz bande.
16:17
So what happened was,
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A desilo se da su
16:18
the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --
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ljudi koji su se našli na pravom mestu u pravo vreme -
16:21
the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid- to late '80s --
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ljudi koji se se našli na čelu bande sredinom i kasnih osamdesetih --
16:27
became very, very wealthy.
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postali vrlo, vrlo bogati.
16:29
And so the logical thing to think was that: "Well, the next generation --
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Tako je logično bilo razmišljanje: „Pa, sledeća generacija -
16:33
so they're going to age out of the gang, like everybody else has,
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dakle oni će prerasti bandu, kao što su i svi drugi
16:35
and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth."
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i sledeća generacija će je preuzeti i obogatiti se".
16:38
So there are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom, right?
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Dakle postoje upadljive sličnosti, čini mi se, sa naglim usponom Interneta, zar ne?
16:41
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.
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Prva grupa ljudi u Silikonskoj dolini postala je vrlo, vrlo bogata.
16:45
And then all of my friends said: "Maybe I should go do that, too."
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A onda su svi moji prijatelji rekli: „Možda bi i ja trebalo da odem i krenem time da se bavim.“
16:49
And they were willing to work very cheap, for stock options that never came.
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I bili su spremni da rade za male pare, za deonice koje nikada nisu ni dobili.
16:54
In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people
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Na neki način, isto to se desilo ljudima
16:59
we were looking at, is that they were willing to start at the bottom.
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koje smo mi izučavali, oni su bili spremni da krenu sa dna.
17:01
Just like, say, a lawyer at a law firm --
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Kao, recimo, pravnik u advokatskoj firmi -
17:05
a first-year lawyer is wiling to start at the bottom,
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pripravnik je spreman da krene sa dna,
17:07
work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,
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radi osamdeset sati nedeljno za malo para,
17:08
because they think they're going to make partner.
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jer svako misli da će postati partner.
17:10
But what happened was, the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
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A desilo se da su se pravila promenila i da nikada nisu postali partneri.
17:14
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s
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Zaista, isti ljudi koji su vodili sve veće bande krajem osamdesetih
17:17
are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.
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i dan danas vode velike bande u Čikagu.
17:20
They never passed on any of the wealth.
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Nikada nisu prepustili deo bogatstva.
17:22
So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster.
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Tako su svi ostali na poslu koji se plaća 3.50 na sat, što se ispostavilo kao prava katastrofa.
17:28
The other thing the gang was very, very good at was marketing and trickery.
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Sledeće je da su bande bile vrlo, vrlo dobre u marketingu i prevari.
17:32
And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --
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Tako, recimo, banda bi -
17:36
you know, the gang leaders would have big entourages,
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znate, vođe bandi su imali brojnu svitu,
17:38
and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.
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i oni su vozili strava kola i imali fensi nakit.
17:41
So what Sudhir eventually realized, as he hung out with them more,
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A Sudir je na kraju shvatio, nakon što je dosta vremena gluvario sa njima,
17:44
is that, really, they didn't own those cars.
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da u stvari, oni nisu posedovali te automobile.
17:46
They just leased them -- because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.
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Samo su ih iznajmljivali - jer nisu mogli da priušte sebi da kupe strava kola.
17:50
And they didn't really have gold jewelry -- they had gold-plated jewelry.
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A ni zlatni nakit nisu stvarno imali - imali su pozlaćen nakit.
17:53
It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
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Svodi se na to da ima razlike između stvarnosti i isfolirane stvarnosti.
17:57
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people
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I zaista su svašta radili da bi navukli mlade
18:01
into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.
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da pomisle kako će banda biti sjajna stvar.
18:03
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid --
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Na primer, dali bi četrnaestogodišnjaku -
18:06
they'd give him a whole, you know, roll of bills to hold.
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da drži celi svežanj novčanica.
18:10
That 14-year-old kid would say: "Oh, well ..."
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I taj četrnaestogodišnjak bi rekao: „Opa...“
18:12
You know, he would say to his friends,
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Shvatate, rekao bi svojim prijateljima:
18:13
"Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."
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„E, pazi koje pare dobijam od bande.“
18:15
It wasn't his money, until he spent it. And then essentially
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Nije to bio njegov novac, sve dok ga ne potroši. A onda bi u suštini
18:18
he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.
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bio dužan bandi, i dužan da im služi neko vreme.
18:20
So I have a couple minutes.
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Dakle imam još nekoliko minuta.
18:23
Let me do one last thing
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Preći ću na poslednju stvar
18:25
I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about
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za koju nisam mislio da ću imati vremena da pomenem; pričaću o tome
18:29
what we learned, more generally, about economics from the study of the gang.
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šta smo naučili, generalno gledano, o ekonomiji kroz izučavanje bande.
18:34
So economists tend to talk in technical words.
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Ekonomisti kad pričaju obično koristeći tehničke termine.
18:38
Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we go to the data.
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Često, naše teorije kolosalno propadnu kada stignemo do konkretnih podataka.
18:41
But actually, what's kind of interesting is that in this setting
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Ali zapravo, zanimljivo je da u ovom okruženju,
18:44
it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not so well
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neke od ekonomskih teorija koje su se slabo pokazale
18:48
in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy --
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u pravoj ekonomiji, funkcionišu vrlo dobro u ekonomiji droge -
18:50
in some sense because it's unfettered capitalism.
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donekle jer se radi o slobodnom kapitalizmu.
18:53
Here's an economic principle.
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Evo jednog ekonomskog principa.
18:54
This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a "compensating differential."
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To je jedna od osnovnih ideja u ekonomiji rada, zove se "kompenzacijska razlika".
18:58
It's the idea that basically, the increment to wages that a worker requires
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Ideja je da se razlika u plati koju radnik zahteva
19:02
to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks --
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da ne bi pravio razliku između obavljanja dva zadatka -
19:05
one which is more unpleasant than the other --
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pri čemu je jedan neprijatniji od drugog -
19:06
that's what you call a "compensating differential."
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naziva kompenzacijska razlika.
19:08
It's why we think garbage men might be paid more than people who work in parks, OK?
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Zbog toga smatramo da đubretari mogu biti više plaćeni od ljudi koji rade u parku, da?
19:12
So in the words of one of the members of the gang I think makes this clear.
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Iskoristiću reči jednog pripadnika bande koje po meni objašnjavaju stvar.
19:18
So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself.
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Ispostavlja se - malo sam požurio sa poentom.
19:20
It turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,
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Ispostavlja se, u bandi, kada je u toku rat,
19:24
that they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.
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zapravo plaćaju pešadince duplo više.
19:27
It's exactly this concept.
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To je u potpunosti isti koncept.
19:28
Because they're not willing to be at risk.
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Jer oni nisu voljni da se izlažu riziku.
19:31
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely.
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To se lepo vidi iz reči pripadnika bande.
19:34
He says, "Would you stand around here when all this shit" -- that means shooting --
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On kaže: „ Je l’ bi ti stajao ovde kad se svo ovo sranje“ - u prevodu pucnjava -
19:37
"if all this shit's going on? No, right?
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„svo sranje dešava? Ne, a?
19:39
So if I going to be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."
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Pa ako će da mi traže da rizikujem glavu, ima da pljunu pare, brate“.
19:42
So essentially, I think the gang member says it much more articulately
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U suštini, mislim da pripadnik bande mnogo bolje formuliše
19:44
than does the economist, about what's going on.
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kako stoje stvari, nego ekonomisti.
19:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
19:50
Here's another one.
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Evo još jednog.
19:51
So economists talk about game theory --
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Ekonomisti pričaju o teoriji igara -
19:52
that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.
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kako svaka igra sa dva igrača predstavlja Nešov ekvilibrijum.
19:55
Here's the translation you get from the gang member.
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Evo i prevoda koji daje pripadnik bande.
19:58
They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --
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Pričaju o odluci da ne odu i pucaju -
20:02
one thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang,
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stvar koja predstavlja jako dobru poslovnu taktiku bande,
20:05
if you go and just shoot in the air -- just shoot guns in the other gang's territory --
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ako odu i jednostavno pucaju u vazduh - samo pucaju iz pištolja na teritoriji druge bande -
20:09
all the people are afraid to go buy their drugs there.
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svi se plaše da odu tamo da kupe drogu.
20:11
They're going to come into your neighborhood.
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Doći će u njihov kraj.
20:12
But here's what he says about why they don't do that.
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Ali evo šta ima da kaže o tome zašto to ne rade.
20:15
He says, "If we start shooting around there," -- in the other gang's territory -- "nobody,
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Kaže: „ Ako krenemo da pucamo tamo,“ - na teritoriji druge bande - „niko
20:18
and, I mean, you dig it, nobody, going to step on their turf.
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i mislim, kontaš, niko, neće da im zađe na teritoriju.
20:21
But we gotta be careful,
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Ali sa tim moramo oprezno,
20:22
because they can shoot around here, too, and then we all fucked."
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jer mogu i oni da pucaju ovde, a onda smo najebali“.
20:24
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
20:25
So that's exactly the same concept.
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To je potpuno isti koncept.
20:27
But then, again, sometimes economists get it wrong.
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A opet, ponekad ekonomisti pogrešno shvate stvari.
20:29
So one thing we observed in the data is that it looked like, in terms of ...
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Ono što smo uočili u podacima, izgleda da, u pogledu ...
20:35
The gang leader always got paid, OK?
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Vođa bande uvek dobije pare, da?
20:39
No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
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Nema veze koliko loše stoje stvari u ekonomiji, za njega uvek ima para.
20:43
So we had some theories related to cash flow,
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Mi smo imali teorije da je to vezano za protok novca
20:45
and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.
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i nedostatak pristupa tržištu kapitala i slične ideje.
20:47
But then we asked the gang member,
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Ali kada smo pitali pripadnika bande:
20:48
"Well, why is it you always get paid, and your workers don't always get paid?"
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„Pa zašto ti uvek dobiješ pare, a tvoji radnici ne dobiju uvek pare?“
20:51
His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?
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Odgovorio je: „Imaš gomilu crnčuga ispod tebe koji hoće tvoj posao, kontaš?
20:55
If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."
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Ako kreneš da prihvataš gubitke, gledaju te k'o slabića i ta sranja“.
20:59
And I thought about it, and I said,
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Razmislio sam o tome i rekao:
21:01
"CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,
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"Direktori kompanija često sebi isplaćuju milionske bonuse,
21:05
even when companies are losing a lot of money.
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čak i kada kompanije gube mnogo novca.
21:07
And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit'
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A nikada ne bi palo napamet ekonomisti da ideja „slabić i ta sranja“
21:11
could really be important."
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možda tu ima značaja“.
21:12
But maybe -- maybe "weak and shit" --
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Ali, možda - možda „slabić i ta sranja“ -
21:19
maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
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možda je „slabić i ta sranja“ važna hipoteza koju treba dodatno analizirati.
21:21
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Levitt - EconomistSteven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down.
Why you should listen
With his 2005 book Freakonomics (co-authored with Stephen Dubner, a writer who profiled him for the New York Times), Steven Levitt carried hardcore economic method into the squishy real world and produced a pop-culture classic. Freakonomics is both an economics textbook and a series of cautionary tales about the fallacy of conventional wisdom. Levitt examines the links between real-world events, and finds many instances where the data simply doesn't back up popular belief.
He asks provocative questions: If selling crack is so lucrative, why do dealers live with their mothers? Does parental doting really improve children's test scores? Did New York City's crime rate really drop because of police tactics (or population trends)? His controversial answers stir debate, and sometimes backlash.
Steven Levitt | Speaker | TED.com