TED@UPS
Julio Gil: Future tech will give you the benefits of city life anywhere
胡里奥·吉尔: 未来科技让城市生活的优势可以在非城市地区实现
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千万不要相信城市生活是未来趋势这样的说法。物流专家胡里奥·吉尔告诉我们，城市化进程其实已经快到头了。很快，由于增强现实、无人机运送、新型能源和其它科技的快速发展，更多人会选择到乡村去生活（和工作）。让我们将注意力集中在城市的高墙之外，倾听本期演讲带来的前端想法，一起考量乡村生活的好处吧。
Julio Gil - Logistics expert
UPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban. Full bio
UPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today, more than half
of the world's population lives in cities.
of the world's population lives in cities.
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如今 城市人口已占
世界总人口的一半以上
世界总人口的一半以上
00:18
The urbanization process
started in the late 1700s
started in the late 1700s
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早在18世纪 城市化进程就已开始
00:21
and has been increasing since then.
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并在不断加速
00:24
The prediction is that by 2050,
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据推测 截至2050年
00:27
66 percent of the population
will live in cities
will live in cities
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将有66%的世界人口在城市安家
00:30
and the United Nations,
the World Health Organization,
the World Health Organization,
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一些国际组织 包括联合国
世界卫生组织
世界卫生组织
00:33
the World Economic Forum, are warning us,
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以及世界经济论坛 都发出了警告
00:37
if we don't plan
for the increased density,
for the increased density,
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如若无视城市人口密度的增大
不加以合理的规划
不加以合理的规划
00:40
current problems in our cities,
like inequality, congestion, crime
like inequality, congestion, crime
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当今城市中的种种问题
如不平等 过度拥堵 犯罪等
如不平等 过度拥堵 犯罪等
00:45
can only get worse.
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只会变得更糟
00:46
As a result, urban planners
and city developers
and city developers
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因此 城市规划开发者们
00:49
are putting a lot of effort and creativity
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正绞尽脑汁地设计出
00:52
in designing our future,
denser, bigger cities.
denser, bigger cities.
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一个未来人口密度更大
城市规模更大的建筑蓝图
城市规模更大的建筑蓝图
00:57
But I have a different opinion.
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但我有个不同的见解
00:59
I think urbanization is actually
reaching the end of its cycle,
reaching the end of its cycle,
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我认为现在 城市化
已经到了一个周期的末尾
已经到了一个周期的末尾
接下来人们将开始重返乡村
01:03
and now people are going to start
moving back to the countryside.
moving back to the countryside.
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你可能会问 那城市化趋势
会怎么发展下去
会怎么发展下去
01:07
And you may think,
"But what about the trend?"
"But what about the trend?"
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01:10
Well, let me tell you,
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我是这么认为的
01:12
socioeconomic trends don't last forever.
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社会经济趋势是
不会永久发展下去的
不会永久发展下去的
12000年前
01:16
You know, 12,000 years ago
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01:17
everybody was perfectly happy
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所有人都觉得
01:21
roaming the land, hunting and gathering.
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游牧 打猎以及群居
这样的生活方式挺好的
这样的生活方式挺好的
01:24
And then, the trend changes,
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之后社会经济趋势发生了转变
01:26
and the new thing
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
is to live in a farm and have cattle,
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人们开始住在农场里养牛
01:30
until it changes again.
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直到风向再一次转变
01:32
When we get to the industrial revolution.
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人类进入了工业革命时代
事实上这也是城市化进程的开端
01:35
Actually, that is what started
the urbanization process.
the urbanization process.
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01:39
And you know what triggered it?
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是什么刺激了城市化呢
01:41
Steam power, machines,
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蒸汽动力 机器
新的化学处理过程
01:44
new chemical processes --
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01:46
in two words, technological innovation.
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用四个字来概括
即技术革新
即技术革新
01:51
And I believe technology
can also bring the end of this cycle.
can also bring the end of this cycle.
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我认为技术同样能
带我们进入下一阶段
带我们进入下一阶段
01:55
I've been working on innovation
for most of my career.
for most of my career.
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我的职业生涯中
大部分时间都和创新打交道
大部分时间都和创新打交道
我喜欢这行 很爱我的工作
01:58
I love it. I love my job.
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02:00
It allows me to work with drones,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
with 3D printers and smart glasses,
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借助工作我可以接触到
无人机 3D打印机 还有智能眼镜
无人机 3D打印机 还有智能眼镜
02:04
and not just those you can buy in the shop
but also prototypes.
but also prototypes.
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除了这些在商店销售的 还有原型机
02:08
It's a lot of fun sometimes.
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有时候真的非常有趣
02:12
Now, some of these technologies
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其中一些高科技产品
02:13
are opening new possibilities
that will radically change
that will radically change
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带来了更多新的可能
02:17
the way we did things before
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来改变我们以往做事的方式
02:18
and in a few years,
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在未来几年中
02:20
they may allow us
to enjoy the benefits of city life
to enjoy the benefits of city life
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这些科技或许能让我们在任何地方
02:24
from anywhere.
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都享受到城市生活的便利
02:26
Think about it.
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想想看
如果有一个犯罪率更低
02:27
If you could live in a place
with a lower crime rate
with a lower crime rate
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02:31
and more space
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空间更大
02:32
and a lower cost of living
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生活成本更低
02:34
and less traffic,
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交通也不拥堵的地方
02:36
of course many people would want that,
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当然会让很多人趋之若鹜
02:38
but they feel they don't have a choice.
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但很多人认为他们没有这样的选择
02:41
You have to live in the city.
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因此不得不住在城市里
02:45
Well, in the past,
people moved to the cities
people moved to the cities
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在过去 人们移居城市
02:47
not because they loved the city itself
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不是因为热爱这个城市本身
02:50
but for the things
you could have in a city,
you could have in a city,
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而是因为城市所能提供的东西
02:53
more job opportunities,
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更多的工作机会
02:54
easier access to services and goods
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更丰富的商品以及服务
02:57
and a rich social life.
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更多彩的社交生活
02:59
So let's dive deeper.
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那让我们进一步来看看
03:01
More jobs and career opportunities.
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更多的工作和就业机会
03:05
Is that still true today,
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在当今还重要吗
03:06
because the office people
are starting to realize
are starting to realize
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因为办公室一族开始意识到
03:09
that working in the office
and being in the office
and being in the office
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在办公室工作和呆在办公室
03:13
may not be the same thing anymore.
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已经不再是同一个概念了
03:16
According to a study
by Global Workplace Analytics,
by Global Workplace Analytics,
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全球工作数据分析的一项研究发现
03:19
more than 80 percent of the US workforce
would like to work from home.
would like to work from home.
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在美国有80%的在业者想在家工作
03:24
And do you know how much it costs
for a company to even have an office?
for a company to even have an office?
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你知道一个公司租用办公地有多贵吗?
03:29
11,000 dollars per employee per year.
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平均每年每个员工11000美元
03:33
If only half of those workers
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如果那些员工中的一半
03:36
would telework
even 50 percent of the time,
even 50 percent of the time,
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能在一半的时间在家工作
03:40
the savings in the states
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
would exceed 500 billion dollars,
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美国的这些公司就能
省下超过5千亿美元
省下超过5千亿美元
03:44
and it could reduce greenhouse gases
by 54 million tons.
by 54 million tons.
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也能少制造5400万吨的温室气体
03:49
That is the equivalent
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这相当于减少了
03:50
of 10 million cars
off the streets for a whole year.
off the streets for a whole year.
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一千万台车一整年的排气量
03:56
But even though most people
would want to telework,
would want to telework,
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但是即使大多数人想远程工作
03:59
current technology
makes the experience isolating.
makes the experience isolating.
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目前的科技只会让这种方式
显得很有隔绝感
显得很有隔绝感
04:03
It's not comfortable.
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让人感觉不太舒服
04:04
It doesn't feel like being there.
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不觉得是公司的一员
04:06
But that is going to change
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但是这些都即将改变
04:09
by the convergence of two technologies:
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因为我们可以实现两种科技的融合
04:11
augmented reality and telepresence robots.
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增强现实和远程呈现机器人
04:15
Augmented reality already today
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增强现实感技术在当今
04:17
allows you to take your office
environment everywhere with you.
environment everywhere with you.
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可以允许我们将办公室环境带在身边
04:21
All you need is a wearable computer,
a pair of smart glasses,
a pair of smart glasses,
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只需一台便携电脑和一副智能眼睛
04:24
and you can take your emails
and your spreadsheets
and your spreadsheets
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你就可以带着你的电邮和表格
04:27
with you wherever you go.
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随便去哪都没问题
04:29
And video conferences and video calls
have become very common these days,
have become very common these days,
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视频会议和视频电话已经很常见
04:33
but they still need improvement.
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但还有改进的空间
04:36
I mean, all those little faces
on a flat screen,
on a flat screen,
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看着平面显示器上的
一张张缩小的头像
一张张缩小的头像
04:40
sometimes you don't
even know who is talking.
even know who is talking.
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有时候都分不清是谁在讲话
04:42
Now, we already have something
way better than static videocalls:
way better than static videocalls:
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而现在 我们已经有比静态
视频电话更好的沟通方式了
视频电话更好的沟通方式了
04:47
your average telepresence robot.
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就是远程呈现机器人
04:50
I call it tablet on a stick.
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我喜欢称它为一根棍上的平板
04:53
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:54
You can control, you can move around,
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你可以进行操控 动来动去
04:57
you can control what you're looking at.
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可以对要看的东西进行控制
04:59
It's way better, but far from perfect.
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这种科技理想多了
但远不够完美
但远不够完美
05:03
You know how they say
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人们不是都说
05:04
that most human
communication is nonverbal?
communication is nonverbal?
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大多数的人际交流是非语言交流吗
05:08
Well, the robot doesn't
give you any of that.
give you any of that.
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和这机器人交流正是如此
05:10
It looks like an alien.
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它不正像个外星人嘛
05:14
But with advances in augmented reality,
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但是因为有了先进的增强现实科技
05:17
it will be easy to wrap the robot
in a nice hologram
in a nice hologram
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我们可以轻易给机器人
穿上全息摄投影人像
穿上全息摄投影人像
05:20
that actually looks
and moves like a person.
and moves like a person.
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这样才能看着像人 动起来也像人
05:24
That will do it.
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不错吧
05:26
Or else, forget the robot.
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或者 压根儿不需要机器人
05:28
We go full VR,
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我们可以用虚拟现实
05:30
and everybody meets in cyberspace.
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大家都能直接在网络空间见面
05:33
Give it a couple of years
and that will feel so real,
and that will feel so real,
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这个技术只需要再发展几年
就能非常成熟
就能非常成熟
05:36
you won't tell the difference.
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根本看不出来是虚拟的
05:39
So what was the next reason
why people move to cities?
why people move to cities?
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那么人们搬到城市
还有其他什么原因吗
还有其他什么原因吗
05:43
Access to services and goods.
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是为了更多的服务和商品
05:45
But today you can do all that online.
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但是当今这些都可以在网上实现
05:49
According to a study made by comScore,
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根据comScore的数据统计
05:52
online shoppers in the US last year
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在去年 美国人民超过一半的物品
05:54
did more than half
of their retail purchases online,
of their retail purchases online,
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都是在网上购买的
05:59
and the global market for e-commerce
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据统计 全球电商市场
06:02
is estimated to be
at two trillion dollars.
at two trillion dollars.
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价值2万亿美元
06:06
And it's expected to reach 2.38
by the end of 2017,
by the end of 2017,
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而根据eMarketer提供的数据
预计在2017年底 这个数字
预计在2017年底 这个数字
06:11
according to eMarketer.
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会多达2.38万亿
06:14
Now, from a logistics standpoint,
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从物流角度来说
06:17
density is good for deliveries.
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搞人口密度对运送货物有好处
06:20
Supplying goods
to a shopping mall is easy.
to a shopping mall is easy.
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给一个购物中心送货很简单
06:23
You can send big shipments to the shop,
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你可以向商店送一大批货物
06:26
and people will go there, pick it up
and take it home themselves.
and take it home themselves.
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然后人们就会去商店
买上需要的东西带回家
买上需要的东西带回家
06:29
E-commerce means we need to ship onesies
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而网上购物意味着
我们需要把货物一件一件
我们需要把货物一件一件
06:32
and have them home delivered.
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送到各家各户
06:34
That's more expensive.
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这样费用更贵
06:35
It's like the difference between
having a birthday party for 20 people
having a birthday party for 20 people
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就像是开一个20个人的聚会
06:39
or bringing a piece of the cake
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还是将一块块的蛋糕
06:41
to each of your 20 friends at their place.
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给20个朋友分别送到家
06:45
But at least in the city,
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起码在城市里
06:47
they live close to each other.
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各家各户离得不远
06:48
Density helps.
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住的紧凑是好事
06:50
Now, e-commerce deliveries
in the countryside,
in the countryside,
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但电商也需要送货到郊区
06:55
those take forever.
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花的时间就要多得多了
06:57
The truck sometimes needs to drive miles
between one address and the next one.
between one address and the next one.
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送货卡车可能要在一个地址
和另一个地址间开上个几公里
和另一个地址间开上个几公里
07:02
Those are the most expensive
deliveries of all.
deliveries of all.
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这种送货是最贵的
07:07
But we already have a solution for that:
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但是我们已经有解决方法了
07:09
drones.
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使用无人机
07:11
A vehicle carrying a squadron of drones.
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可以用一台车载上一队的无人机
在无人机飞来飞去的时候
07:14
The driver does some of the deliveries
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司机可以运送其它货物
07:16
while the drones are flying
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
back and forth from the truck as it moves.
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07:19
That way, the average cost
for delivery is reduced,
for delivery is reduced,
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这样运送的成本就会降低
07:22
and voila:
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看吧
07:24
affordable e-commerce services
in the countryside.
in the countryside.
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乡郊区也能有价格合理的电商服务
07:28
You will see:
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你会看到
07:30
the new homes of our teleworkers
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很多远程工作的员工在新家的
07:31
will probably have
a drone pod in the yard.
a drone pod in the yard.
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院子里都会装有无人机架
07:35
So once the final mile delivery
is not a problem,
is not a problem,
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一旦我们让最后的运送变成可能
07:38
you don't need to be in the city
to buy things anymore.
to buy things anymore.
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你就不用去市里买东西了
07:42
So that's two.
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这是第二点
07:43
Now, what was the third reason
why people move to cities?
why people move to cities?
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人们搬家到城市的
第三个原因是什么来着
第三个原因是什么来着
07:46
A rich social life.
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丰富的社交生活
07:48
They would need to be
in the city for that these days.
in the city for that these days.
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这年头谁还需要去
市里获取社交生活啊
市里获取社交生活啊
因为这年头
07:51
Because people these days,
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07:53
they make friends,
they chat, gossip and flirt
they chat, gossip and flirt
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人们不管是交朋友 聊天
八卦还是调情
八卦还是调情
07:56
from the comfort of their sofa.
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都在自家沙发上完成
07:58
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:00
And while wearing their favorite pajamas.
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穿着最爱的睡衣
08:02
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
08:03
There are over two billion
active social media users in the world.
active social media users in the world.
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世界上大概有超过2百万的
活跃的社交网络用户
活跃的社交网络用户
08:08
In a way, that makes you think
like we are connected
like we are connected
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某种程度来讲 这让你觉得
我们都是联系在一起的
我们都是联系在一起的
08:11
no matter where we are.
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不管身处何处
08:13
But OK, not completely.
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好吧 也不完全是这样
08:15
Sometimes you still need
some real human contact.
some real human contact.
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有时候你还是需要真正的人际交流
08:19
Ironically, the city,
with its population density,
with its population density,
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讽刺的是 城市人口虽然多
08:23
is not always the best for that.
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却并不是一个人际交往的最佳地点
08:26
Actually, as social groups become smaller,
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实际上 社交群体越小
08:29
they grow stronger.
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联系却越紧密
08:31
A recent study made in the UK
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英国国家统计局发起的
08:33
by the Office for National Statistics
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最近的一项研究表明
08:35
showed a higher life satisfaction rating
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生活在乡村地区的人口
08:38
among people living in rural areas.
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有更高的生活满意度
08:42
So as people settle in the countryside,
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人们在乡村安家后
会去本地杂货店购物
08:45
well, they will buy local groceries,
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08:48
fresh groceries, foodstuff,
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买新鲜的食品
08:50
maintenance services.
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也会雇佣本地劳动力
08:52
So handymen, small workshops,
service companies will thrive.
service companies will thrive.
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这样一来 本地的技工 小的作坊
和服务公司都会发展良好
和服务公司都会发展良好
08:58
Maybe some of the industrial
workers from the cities
workers from the cities
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也许一些城市工业界的工人
09:00
displaced by the automation
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被自动化生产线所取代之后
09:02
will find a nice alternative job here,
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还能在乡村找到不错的工作
09:05
and they will move too.
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然后就会决定搬家
09:07
And as people move to the countryside,
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随着更多人搬到乡村居住
09:09
how is that going to be?
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会发生什么样的变化呢
09:11
Think about autonomous,
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想象这里生活的自主性
09:14
off-the-grid houses with solar panels,
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不需要城市供电
只依赖太阳能
只依赖太阳能
09:16
with wind turbines
and waste recycling utilities,
and waste recycling utilities,
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风能 有更好的
废物循环系统的房子
废物循环系统的房子
09:20
our new homes producing their own energy
and using it to also power the family car.
and using it to also power the family car.
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我们的新家能自给自足
还能给私家车提供电能
还能给私家车提供电能
09:26
I mean, cities have always been regarded
as being more energy-efficient,
as being more energy-efficient,
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一直以来人们都觉得
在城市生活可以更节能
在城市生活可以更节能
09:30
but let me tell you,
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但是我可以告诉大家
重返乡村也能过上节能生活
09:31
repopulating the countryside
can be eco too.
can be eco too.
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09:36
By now, you're probably thinking
of all the advantages of country living.
of all the advantages of country living.
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现在你们肯定已经在想象
乡村生活的美好了
乡村生活的美好了
09:41
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:43
I did it myself.
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我自己就搬了家
09:44
Six years ago, my wife and I,
we packed our stuff,
we packed our stuff,
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6年前 我和妻子打包了行李
09:48
we sold our little apartment in Spain,
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卖掉了我们在西班牙的家
09:50
and for the same money
we bought a house with a garden
we bought a house with a garden
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用那笔钱买了一个带花园的房子
09:55
and little birds that come
singing in the morning.
singing in the morning.
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还附带清晨来唱歌的小鸟
09:57
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:59
It's so nice there.
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真的太惬意了
10:01
And we live in a small village,
not really the countryside yet.
not really the countryside yet.
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我们住在一个小镇子里
也不完全算是乡村
也不完全算是乡村
10:04
That is going to be my next move:
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我的下一步是
10:07
a refurbished farmhouse,
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一个翻新的农家小院
10:09
not too far from a city, not too close.
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离城市不是很远 也不要太近
10:12
And now we'll make sure
to have a good spot for drones to land.
to have a good spot for drones to land.
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这次我们肯定会
选好无人机的降落点
选好无人机的降落点
10:15
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:16
But hey, that's me.
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但这只是我的做法
10:18
It doesn't have to be you,
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你不一定要这样
10:19
because it would seem
like I'm trying to convince somebody
like I'm trying to convince somebody
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看起来好像是我在说服你们
10:22
to come join us in the country.
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跟我们一起搬到乡村
10:23
I'm not.
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我可没有这个意思
10:25
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:26
I don't need more people to come.
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我可不想吸引那么多人过来
10:28
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
10:30
I just think they will
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我只是觉得人们会搬的
10:31
once they realize they can have
the same benefits the city has.
the same benefits the city has.
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只是需要意识到乡村也可以提供
城市能提供的好处
城市能提供的好处
10:36
But if you don't like the country,
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但是如果你不喜欢乡村
10:37
I have good news for you, too.
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我也有新想法可以分享给你
10:39
Cities will not disappear.
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城市并不会消失
10:42
But as people move out,
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但是很多人会搬走
10:43
a lower density will help them
recover a better flow and balance.
recover a better flow and balance.
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人口密度的减少会使剩余人口的生活
流动性更好 更加平衡
流动性更好 更加平衡
10:49
Anyway, I guess now
you have some thinking to do.
you have some thinking to do.
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总之 你们现在肯定开始有疑问了
10:53
Do you still think
you need to live in the city?
you need to live in the city?
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你必须要住在城市吗
10:56
And more importantly,
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更重要的是
10:58
do you want to?
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你真的想吗
11:00
Thank you very much.
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谢谢大家
掌声
11:02
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julio Gil - Logistics expertUPS's Julio Gil thinks that technology is flipping the equation on future cities, and that rural may soon become the new urban.
Why you should listen
Julio Gil is an Industrial Engineering Manager in the Innovation and Advanced Technology Group at UPS Corporate. Gil has spent 15 years driving innovation and logistics improvements at UPS. He is always looking for the next great disruptive technology. As an engineering manager, he has pioneered new technologies for drones, 3D printing, the Internet of Things and wearables. As an inventor, he has developed four patents for drone technology and one for augmented reality applications for sorting processes. Gil holds a master's in law from the University of Alcalá de Henares in Spain.
Julio Gil | Speaker | TED.com