TED2009
Shai Agassi: A new ecosystem for electric cars
Shai Aggasi的豪迈的电力车计划
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忘记混合动力车，Shai Agassi说如果我们要真的改变排放量，我们得选择电力车。他的公司，Better Place，为我们带来一个激进的计划，一个可以让不同国家在2020年完全摆脱石油的计划。
Shai Agassi - Green auto pioneer
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it. Full bio
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
So how would you run a whole country without oil?
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怎么让一个国家在没有用石油的情况下运转？
00:22
That's the question that sort of hit me
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那个问题突然浮现在我的脑海
00:24
in the middle of a Davos afternoon about four years ago.
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四年以前在Davos的一个下午。
00:27
It never left my brain.
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我永远不会忘记它。
00:29
And I started playing with it more like a puzzle.
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我越想越多，就像一个游戏。
00:32
The original thought I had: this must be ethanol.
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一开始我想一定应该用乙醇。
00:34
So I went out and researched ethanol,
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所以我便开始学习研究乙醇。
00:36
and found out you need the Amazon in your backyard in every country.
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然后发现，每个国家必须得有个自己的亚马孙来支持。
00:39
About six months later I figured out it must be hydrogen,
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六个月以后，我觉得答案必定是氢气，
00:42
until some scientist told me the unfortunate truth,
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直到后来某科学家告诉我一个不幸的事实：
00:45
which is, you actually use more
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你其实用了
00:48
clean electrons than the ones you get
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比你所得到的更多干净的电子，
00:50
inside a car, if you use hydrogen.
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如果在汽车里使用氢气的话。
00:52
So that is not going to be the path to go.
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所以这并不是一个可行的办法。
00:55
And then sort of through a process of
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然后经过反反复复的思考，
00:58
wandering around, I got to the thought
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我有了这样一个想法，
01:00
that actually if you could convert an entire country to electric cars,
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如果你可以将整个国家转换到使用电力汽车，
01:03
in a way that is convenient and affordable,
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在方便和经济的前提下，
01:06
you could get to a solution.
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那你便有了解决的方法。
01:09
Now I started this from a point of view that
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我从一开始觉得
01:12
it has to be something that scales en masse.
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我们的办法只能在一个很大的范围内可行。
01:14
Not how do you build one car,
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这并不是怎么制造一辆车，
01:16
but how do you scale this so that it can become
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而是，怎么设计一个方案
01:18
something that is used by 99 percent of the population?
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可以让百分之99的人都使用这种汽车。
01:23
The thought that came to mind is that it needs to be as good
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第一个想法便是这种车必须跟现在的车
01:26
as any car that you would have today.
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一样好用。
01:28
So one, it has to be more convenient than a car.
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因此，第一：它必须比一辆汽车方便。
01:31
And two, it has be more affordable than today's cars.
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第二：它必须比现代的汽车便宜。
01:34
Affordable is not a 40,000 dollar sedan, right?
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便宜的意思不是指一辆4万美元的轿车。
01:37
Alright? That's not something that we can finance or buy today.
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对吧？那可不是我们今天可以购买的汽车。
01:40
And convenient is not something that you drive for an hour and charge for eight.
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并且，方便的意思不是说你得充电8小时却只能开1小时。
01:44
So we're bound with the laws of physics
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所以我们需要遵循物理原理
01:47
and the laws of economics.
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以及经济原理。
01:49
And so the thought that I started with was
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于是我开始问这样一个问题：
01:52
how do you do this, still within the boundary
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我们应该如何在现有的
01:55
of the science we know today --
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科学限定范围内实现这个理想，
01:57
no time for science fair, no time for playing around with things
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要知道，我们并没有科学展览以及尝试各种试验的时间
02:00
or waiting for the magic battery to show up.
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更没有等待神奇电池诞生的时间。
02:02
How do you do it within the economics that we have today?
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那我们应该怎么在现有经济条件之下实现这个目标？
02:04
How do you do it from the power of the consumer up?
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我们应该怎么从消费者动力处着手？
02:06
And not from the power of an edict down.
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而不是从硬性法令限制处着手。
02:09
On a random visit to Tesla on some afternoon,
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在某个去Tesla参观的下午，
02:12
I actually found out that the answer comes
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我突然意识到这些问题的答案来自
02:14
from separating between the car ownership
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汽车拥有权以及
02:17
and the battery ownership.
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电池拥有权的分离。
02:19
In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic
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在某种程度上，你会觉得这是经典的
02:22
"batteries not included."
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“不包含电池”。
02:25
Now if you separate between the two,
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如果现在你将这两者分离，
02:27
you could actually answer the need for a convenient car
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你便有了如何解决节能车需求的答案－
02:30
by creating a network,
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通过创造一个网络，
02:32
by creating a network before the cars show up.
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在汽车出现之前，创造一个网络。
02:35
The network has two components in them.
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这个网络由两个部分组成。
02:38
First component is you charge the car whenever you stop --
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第一个部分是每当你停车的时候，你让汽车充电－－
02:41
ends up that cars are these strange beasts that drive
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结果这些汽车变成了只会行驶两个小时
02:44
for about two hours and park for about 22 hours.
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而要充电12个小时的机器。
02:47
If you drive a car in the morning and drive it back in the afternoon
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如果你驾驶汽车早上出门，下午回程
02:51
the ratio of charge to drive is about a minute for a minute.
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这样的话，充电与驾驶的比例是1分钟比一分钟。
02:54
And so the first thought that came to mind is,
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由此产生的第一个想法是，
02:56
everywhere we park we have electric power.
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任何我们停车的地方都会有电力。
02:59
Now it sounds crazy. But in some places around the world,
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这听上去可能有点不可思议。 但是，在世界某个角落，
03:01
like Scandinavia, you already have that.
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像北欧，这个设置已经存在。
03:04
If you park your car and didn't plug in the heater,
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如果你把车停了，不把暖气开着，
03:06
when you come back you don't have a car. It just doesn't work.
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当你回来的时候，车一定开不了。
03:09
Now that last mile,
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现在想想这最后一英里，
03:12
last foot, in a sense,
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最后一步，在某种意义上，
03:14
is the first step of the infrastructure.
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是迈向基础设施的第一步。
03:15
The second step of the infrastructure needs to take care
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基础设施的第二步便是解决
03:17
of the range extension.
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扩大范围的需要。
03:19
See we're bound by today's technology on batteries,
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我们被现有的电池技术限制，
03:22
which is about 120 miles if you want to stay within
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在适当的空间和重量限制范围之内，
03:24
reasonable space and weight limitations.
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汽车只能行驶大概120英里左右。
03:28
120 miles is a good enough range for a lot of people.
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对大部分人来说，120英里已经是一个足够的范围。
03:32
But you never want to get stuck.
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可是，没有人愿意被现有的限制束缚。
03:34
So what we added is a second element to our network,
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因此，我们为我们的网络添加了第二个成分
03:36
which is a battery swap system.
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这便是一个电池交换系统。
03:38
You drive. You take your depleted battery out.
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你驾驶。 你把已耗尽的电池取出。
03:41
A full battery comes on. And you drive on.
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换上一个全新的电池，你继续你的旅程。
03:44
You don't do it as a human being. You do it as a machine.
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这并不是体力劳动。这是全自动模式。
03:46
It looks like a car wash. You come into your car wash.
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这跟自动洗车一样。 你把车开入自动洗车系统，
03:49
And a plate comes up, holds your battery, takes it out, puts it back in, and
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一个钢板将你的电池取出，换进一个新的电池。
03:52
within two minutes you're back on the road
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两分种之内，你便可以上路，
03:54
and you can go again.
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继续你的旅程。
03:57
If you had charge spots everywhere,
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如果任何地方都有充电站，
03:59
and you had battery swap stations everywhere,
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任何地方都有电池替换系统，
04:01
how often would you do it? And it ends up
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你会多久换一次电池，充一次电？ 其实这样下来
04:03
that you'd do swapping less times than you stop at a gas station.
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你换电池的频率比你加油的频率要低。
04:07
As a matter of fact, we added to the contract.
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我们甚至把这个事实加入到我们的合同里。
04:10
We said that if you stop to swap your battery more than 50 times a year
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我们规定如果你一年停车替换电池多于50次，
04:13
we start paying you money
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我们会补偿你，
04:15
because it's an inconvenience.
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因为这样停车换电池非常不方便。
04:17
Then we looked at the question of the affordability.
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然后我们审查了消费者能否负担的问题。
04:20
We looked at the question, what happens when the battery is
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当电池与汽车分离，
04:22
disconnected from the car.
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不再是车的一部分会怎么样呢。
04:24
What is the cost of that battery?
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电池究竟是花多少钱？
04:26
Everybody tells us batteries are so expensive.
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别人都告诉我们电池很贵。
04:28
What we found out, when you move from molecules to electrons,
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我们发现，当你从分子过渡到电子，
04:31
something interesting happens.
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有趣的事情便由此产生了。
04:33
We can go back to the original economics of the car and look at it again.
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我们再回到最原有的汽车经济原理，重新考量。
04:36
The battery is not the gas tank, in a sense.
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电池，在某种程度上，跟油箱不一样。
04:38
Remember in your car you have a gas tank.
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还记得你的汽车里有一个油箱。
04:40
You have the crude oil.
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你有原油。
04:42
And you have refining and delivery of that crude oil
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把原油加工，运输，
04:44
as what we call petrol or gasoline.
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便成了我们现有的汽油。
04:46
The battery in this sense, is the crude oil.
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电池，从这个角度看，就像原油。
04:50
We have a battery bay. It costs the same hundred dollars
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我们有电池海湾。 费用大概是几百美元，
04:53
as the gas tank.
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跟油箱一样。
04:55
But the crude oil is replaced with a battery.
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但是原油被电池取代。
04:57
Just it doesn't burn. It consumes itself
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电池不会燃烧。 它只会耗损自己
04:59
step after step after step.
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一步接一步。
05:01
It has 2,000 life cycles these days.
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现有电池有大概2000个寿命循环。
05:03
And so it's sort of a mini well.
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就像一个小型的油井。
05:06
We were asked in the past when we bought an electric car
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过往当我们决定买一辆电力车，
05:08
to pay for the entire well, for the life of the car.
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我们必须付那口井的全部费用。
05:10
Nobody wants to buy a mini well when they buy a car.
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买车的时候， 没有任何人想购入一口小型井。
05:13
In a sense what we've done is
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在某种程度上，我们创造了
05:15
we've created a new consumable.
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一个新的消费品。
05:17
You, today, buy gasoline miles.
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你们，今天，买汽油英里。
05:19
And we created electric miles.
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而我们却创造了电力英里。
05:22
And the price of electric miles ends up being a very interesting number.
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电力英里的价钱非常有意思。
05:26
Today 2010, in volume,
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在2010年的今天， 按数量计算，
05:28
when we come to market, it is eight cents a mile.
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我们今天进入市场，价钱是8美分一英里。
05:32
Those of you who have a hard time calculating what that means --
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那些对这个概念有点模糊的观众，
05:34
in the average consumer
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在平均消费
05:37
environment we're in in the U.S.
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环境下，在美国
05:39
20 miles per gallon that's a buck 50, a buck 60 a gallon.
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一加仑20英里大概是1.50， 1.60一加仑。
05:42
That's cheaper than today's gasoline, even in the U.S.
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这比现在的油价要便宜多了，甚至在美国。
05:46
In Europe where taxes are in place,
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在税收严谨的欧洲，
05:49
that's the equivalent to a minus 60 dollar barrel.
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这就等于－60美元一桶原油。
05:54
But e-miles follow Moore's Law.
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可是电力英里跟随摩尔定律。
05:58
They go from eight cents a mile in 2010,
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在2010年，它们从8美分一英里，
06:01
to four cents a mile in 2015,
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到2015年4美分一英里，
06:03
to two cents a mile by 2020.
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到2020年2美分一英里。
06:07
Why? Because batteries life cycle improve --
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为什么？因为电池寿命循环不断提升－
06:10
a bit of improvement on energy density, which reduces the price.
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能源密集的进步会导致价钱下调。
06:13
And these prices are actually with clean electrons.
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而且这些价钱都是在使用无污染电子的基础上产生的。
06:16
We do not use any electrons that come from coal.
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我们不会使用任何来自煤炭的电子。
06:20
So in a sense this is
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所以，在某种意义上，这是
06:22
an absolute zero-carbon, zero-fossil fuel
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一个绝对无碳，无矿物燃料，
06:25
electric mile at two cents a mile by 2020.
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的电力英里，价钱在2020将是2美分一英里。
06:29
Now even if we get to 40 miles per gallon
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就算我们在2020年之前能达到40英里一加仑
06:31
by 2020, which is our desire.
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正如我们所愿。
06:33
Imagine only 40 miles per gallon cars would be on the road.
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想像路上只有40英里一加仑的车。
06:36
That is an 80 cent gallon.
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那是80美分一加仑。
06:38
An 80 cent gallon means, if the entire Pacific
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80美分一加仑是指如果把整个太平洋
06:40
would convert to crude oil,
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变成原油，
06:42
and we'd let any oil company bring it out and refine it,
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我们让所有石油公司开发加工，
06:45
they still can't compete with two cents a mile.
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他们还是不能跟2美分英里相比。
06:49
That's a new economic factor,
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这是一个新的经济因素，
06:51
which is fascinating to most people.
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许多人对此极感兴趣。
06:53
Now this would have been a wonderful paper.
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这本来是一篇极好的文章。
06:55
That's how I solved it in my head. It was a white paper I handed out to governments.
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这便是我解决这个问题的过程。 我把这分白皮书分发给不同的政府。
06:58
And some governments told me that it's fascinating
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一部分政府告诉我这个概念很有趣，
07:00
that the younger generation actually thinks about these things.
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年轻一代会真的考虑这种方案。
07:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:04
Until I got to the
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直到我联络到
07:06
true young global leader, Shimon Peres, President of Israel,
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Shimon Peres，一个年轻的领袖，以色列总统，
07:09
and he ran a beautiful manipulation on me.
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他让我好好的操作了这个理念。
07:12
First he let me go to the prime minister of the country,
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首先他让我联络以色列首相。
07:14
who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network,
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他告诉我，如果你可以收集到足够开发这个网络的资金，
07:16
200 million dollars,
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20亿美金，
07:18
and if you can find a car company
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并且可以找到汽车制造商，
07:20
that will build that car in mass volume,
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能生产大量的那个模型的汽车，
07:22
in two million cars -- that's what we needed in Israel --
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大概2两百万辆车左右。 这便是以色列所需要的。
07:24
I'll give you country to invest the 200 million into.
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如果你可以办到这些，我将给你整个国家，让你投资那20亿美金。
07:28
Peres thought that was a great idea.
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Peres认为这是一个很好的想法。
07:31
So we went out, and we looked at all the car companies.
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因此我们调查了所有的汽车制造商。
07:35
We sent letters to all the car companies.
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我们还给他们发了信。
07:37
Three of them never showed up. One of them asked us
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在这些厂商当中，三个从来没有回复。 其中一个问我们
07:39
if we would stay with hybrids and they would give us a discount.
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能否只用双动力汽车，他们会给我们折扣。
07:42
But one of them Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan,
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但是，其中一位，雷诺和尼桑的CEO，Carlos Ghosn，
07:45
when asked about hybrids said something very fascinating.
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当他被问到双动力汽车的时候，他给了一个很有趣的答案。
07:48
He said hybrids are like mermaids.
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他说双动力汽车就像美人鱼一样。
07:50
When you want a fish you get a woman and
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当你要看金鱼的时候，你看到女子，当
07:52
when you need a woman you get a fish.
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你要看女子的时候，你却看到金鱼。
07:54
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:57
And Ghosn came up and said,
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Ghosn告诉我们，
07:59
"I have the car, Mr. Peres; I will build you the cars."
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"我可以制造这种电力汽车。 Peres先生，我会为你制造这种汽车。"
08:01
And actually true to form, Renault has put a billion and a half dollars
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事实上，雷诺早已投资15亿美金
08:04
in building nine different types of cars that fit this kind of model
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在制造9种不同的电力汽车，
08:07
that will come into the market in mass volume --
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它们将大量进入市场－
08:10
mass volume being the first year, 100 thousand cars.
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第一年预计产量，10万辆。
08:13
It's the first mass-volume electric car,
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这将是第一款大量生产的电力汽车，
08:15
zero-emission electric car in the market.
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市场上第一款零排放量的电力汽车。
08:18
I was running, as Chris said,
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正如Chris所说，我当时竞任
08:22
to be the CEO of a large software company called SAP
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SAP，一个大型软件公司的CEO。
08:25
And then Peres said, "Well won't you run this project?"
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Peres问我会不会主管这个项目。
08:29
And I said, "I'm ready for CEO" And he said,
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我告诉他我已经做好了当CEO的准备。 他说，
08:31
"Oh no no no no no. You've got to explain to me,
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"不不不。 你得告诉我
08:34
what is more important than saving your country and saving the world,
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有什么比拯救你的国家和拯救世界
08:36
that you would go and do?"
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更重要的事情?"
08:38
And I had to quit and come and do this thing called A Better Place.
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我于是退出了SAP CEO的竞选，开始了这个名为“更美好的地方”的案子。
08:40
We then decided to scale it up.
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然后我们决定把这个案子扩大。
08:43
We went to other countries. As I said we went to Denmark.
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我们去了别的国家。 像我之前说的，我们去了丹麦。
08:45
And Denmark set this beautiful policy;
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丹麦把这个方案设定成了一个叫
08:47
it's called the IQ test.
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IQ测试的政策。
08:49
It's inversely proportional to taxes.
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这个方案被设置成跟税收成反比。
08:51
They put 180 percent tax on gasoline cars
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丹麦政府对所有汽油车征收百分之180的税，
08:55
and zero tax on zero-emission cars.
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不对零排放量的汽车征收任何税收。
08:57
So if you want to buy a gasoline car in Denmark, it costs you about 60,000 Euros.
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因此如果你在丹麦想购买一辆汽油汽车，价钱大概是6万欧元左右。
09:01
If you buy our car it's about 20,000 Euros.
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如果你买我们的车，价钱大概是2万欧元左右。
09:03
If you fail the IQ test they ask you to leave the country.
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如果你无法通过这个IQ测试，丹麦政府将命令你离开丹麦。
09:06
(Laughter)
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(笑声）
09:08
We then were sort of coined as the guys
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我们于是被称为
09:10
who run only in small islands.
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只在小岛国活动的一组。
09:12
I know most people don't think of Israel as a small island,
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我知道大部分人不认为以色列是一个小岛国家。
09:14
but Israel is an island -- it's a transportation island.
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可是以色列是一个岛国。 以色列是一个交通岛国。
09:17
If your car is driving outside Israel it's been stolen.
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如果你的车在以色列以外行驶，那你的车必定是被盗窃了。
09:20
(Laughter)
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(笑声）
09:22
If you're thinking about it in terms of islands,
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如果你把这些国家都看成是岛屿，
09:25
we decided to go to the biggest island that we could find,
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那么我们决定去我们可以找到的最大的岛国。
09:27
and that was Australia. The third country we announced was Australia.
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那便是澳大利亚。 澳大利亚是我们第三个公布的国家。
09:30
It's got three centers --
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澳大利亚有三个中心－－
09:32
in Brisbane, in Melbourne, in Sydney --
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布里斯班市，墨尔本，和悉尼－－
09:35
and one freeway, one electric freeway that connects them.
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再加一个高速，一个把这三个中心连起来的电子高速。
09:37
The next island
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下一个岛屿
09:39
was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii.
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并不难找，那便是夏威夷。
09:41
We decided to come into the U.S.
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于是我们决定来到美国，
09:43
and pick the two best places --
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并选择了两个最好的地方－－
09:45
the one where you didn't need any range extension.
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两个并不需要任何扩大范围的地方。
09:47
Hawaii you can drive around the island on one battery.
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在夏威夷，你可以依靠一个电池兜游整个岛。
09:49
And if you really have a long day you can switch,
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如果你真的计划一个比较长的行程日，你可以替换，
09:51
and keep on driving around the island.
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并且不断的驾驶。
09:53
The second one was the San Francisco Bay Area
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第二个地方便是三藩市湾区。
09:55
where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors.
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在所有的市长当中，Gavin Newsom精心设计了一个政策方案。
09:58
He decided that he's going to take over
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他决定要掌管整个
10:00
the state, unofficially, and then officially,
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加利福尼亚州，非正式的，然后正式的。
10:03
and then created this beautiful Region One policy.
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然后设置这个叫"1号地区"的政策。
10:07
In the San Francisco Bay Area not only do you have
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在三藩市湾区，你不但有
10:09
the highest concentration of Priuses,
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最高密度的丰田双动力车Priuses，
10:11
but you also have the perfect range extender.
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而且你有最完善的范围扩大设置。
10:13
It's called the other car.
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这个被称为另类的车。
10:15
As we stared scaling it up
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正当我们开始扩大这个方案
10:18
we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.?
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我们研究了美国所面临的问题。
10:21
Why is this a big issue?
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为什么这是一个重要的问题？
10:23
And the most fascinating thing we've learned is that,
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我们所见过的最有趣的是
10:25
when you have small problems on the individual level,
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当个人有些小问题时，
10:28
like the price of gasoline to drive every morning.
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像每天的汽油价格这种事，
10:31
You don't notice it, but when the aggregate comes up
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你并不太注意。 可是当问题聚集起来，
10:33
you're dead. Alright?
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那可麻烦了。 是吧？
10:35
So the price of oil, much like
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所以油价，就像
10:38
lots of other curves that we've seen,
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我们见过的其他曲线一样，
10:40
goes along a depletion curve.
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沿着一个耗尽曲线发展。
10:42
The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground.
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这个曲线建立在我们逐渐失去接近地下的油井的基础上。
10:45
And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground.
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然后我们便不停的开发离地下越来越远的油井。
10:48
It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out.
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这样的油井最后变得越来越贵去开发。
10:50
You think, well it's been up, it's been down,
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你想想，油价上涨过，下调过，
10:53
its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down.
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再上涨过，而且会一直上下变动。
10:55
Here is the problem:
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问题在此：
10:57
at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago,
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六个月前，原油价高立在147美元一桶，
11:00
the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil.
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美国购买石油，花费不少。
11:04
Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47 --
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然后美国经济崩溃，原油价下调到47美元一桶。
11:07
sometimes it's 40, sometimes it's 50.
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有时是40美元，有时是50美元。
11:09
Now we're running a stimulus package.
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现在我们的政府正实行一个经济刺激计划。
11:11
It's called the trillion-dollar stimulus package.
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一个所谓万亿美元的刺激计划。
11:13
We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015,
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我们意图使经济复苏，希望2015年之前发生，
11:17
somewhere in that space.
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大概在这个时间段里。
11:19
What happens when the economy recovers?
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那当经济复苏时，社会将变成什么样？
11:22
By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars
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在2015年前，我们至少将有2.5亿辆新车
11:27
even at the pace we're going at right now.
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就算我们按现有的汽车增加率计算。
11:29
That's another 30 percent demand on oil.
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那意味着原油需求将上涨百分之30。
11:31
That is another 25 million barrels a day.
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那时还要增加两千五百万桶的原油。
11:34
That's all the U.S. usage today.
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即美国现在的原油消耗量。
11:38
In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak.
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这就是说当我们经济复苏时，我们将到达原油需求的高峰点。
11:41
And then we do the OPEC stimulus package
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然后我们来实行OPEC刺激计划，
11:43
also known as 200 dollars a barrel.
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也被称为200美元一桶原油。
11:45
We take our money and we give it away.
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我们把我们的资金都用在原油上面。
11:47
You know what happens at that point?
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你知道到了那个程度，什么会发生吗？
11:49
We go back down. It's going to go up and down.
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我们的经济会下调。 它会一直不断上下浮动。
11:51
And the downs are going to be much longer
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并且，下调的时间会越来越长，
11:53
and the ups are going to be much shorter.
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上升的时间会越来越短。
11:55
And that's the difference between problems that are additive,
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这个就是可添加性问题，
11:58
like CO2, which we go slowly up and then we tip,
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像二氧化碳问题，慢慢上升然后达到最高峰，
12:01
and problems that are depletive,
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跟耗尽性问题，
12:03
in which we lose what we have,
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我们失去我们所拥有的某种资源，
12:05
which oscillate, and they oscillate until
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这种资源一直变动，直到
12:07
we lose everything we've got.
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我们完全用尽这种资源。
12:11
Now we actually looked at what the answer would be.
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其实我们查看了这个问题的答案。
12:13
Right? Remember in the campaign: one million
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对吗？还记得那个广告宣传，一百万
12:15
hybrid cars by 2015.
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混合动力车，到2015年
12:19
That is 0.5 percent of the U.S. oil consumption.
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那可是百分之0.5的美国耗油量。
12:23
That is oh point oh well percent of the rest of the world.
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那只是世界耗油量微不足道的一部分。
12:28
That won't do much difference.
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那样做没有什么意义。
12:30
We looked at an MIT study:
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我们查看了一个麻省理工大学的研究：
12:32
ten million electric cars on the global roads.
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一千万电力汽车投放国际市场。
12:35
Ten million out of 500 million we will add between now and then.
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这是我们计划投入的5亿辆电力汽车中的一千万。
12:39
That is the most pessimistic number you can have.
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那可是你所可以拥有的最保守的数量。
12:41
It's also the most optimistic number
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同时也是最乐观的一个数字，
12:43
because it means we will scale this industry
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因为这意味这我们将扩大这个行业
12:46
from 100 thousand cars is 2011,
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从2011年的10万辆，
12:48
to 10 million cars by 2016 --
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到2016年的1千万辆。
12:52
100 x growth in less than five years.
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这意味着不到5年内10倍的增长。
12:57
You have to remember that the world today is bringing in so many cars.
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同时你必须记得现时的世界每天都在增加许多的汽车。
13:00
We have 10 million cars by region.
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按区域计算，我们有一千万辆汽车。
13:03
That's an enormous amount of cars.
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那可是一个不可小看的数字。
13:05
China is adding those cars --
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中国正飞速的增加汽车数量－－
13:07
India, Russia, Brazil.
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印度，俄罗斯，巴西，
13:09
We have all these regions.
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这些地区都如此。
13:11
Europe has solved it. They just put a tax on gasoline.
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欧洲已经把这个问题解决。 他们在汽油上加税。
13:13
They'll be the first in line to get off
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他们将会第一个摆脱对石油的依赖，
13:15
because their prices are high.
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因为价钱将高得无法让人承受。
13:17
China solves it by an edict. At some point they'll just declare
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中国将会解决用硬性法规这个问题。 他们将会禁止
13:19
that no gasoline car will come into a city, and that will be it.
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任何汽油汽车进入城市。 那会是汽油汽车的最终下场。
13:23
The Indians don't even understand why we think of it as a problem
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印度人民根本不了解为什么这是一个问题，
13:26
because most people in India fill two or three gallons every time.
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因为大部分人在印度每次只加2到3加仑汽油。
13:28
For them to get a battery that goes 120 miles
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对于他们来说，一个可以行走120英里的电池
13:31
is an extension on range, not a reduction in range.
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简直是范围的无限扩大，不是范围的缩小。
13:35
We're the only ones who don't have the price set right.
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我们是唯一一个没有将油价设置好的国家。
13:38
We don't have the industry set right.
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我们也没有把各行业设置好。
13:40
We don't have any incentive to go and resolve it
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我们没有任何刺激去解决这个问题
13:42
across the U.S.
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这个现象横跨全美国。
13:44
Now where is the car industry on that?
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汽车工业在这个问题上的位置究竟在哪？
13:46
Very interesting. The car industry has been focused just on themselves.
311
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这个非常有意思。 汽车工业一直都只专注在它们自己身上。
13:49
They basically looked at it and said, "Car 1.0
312
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基本上他们查看了形势然后决定，“汽车1.0
13:51
we'll solve everything within the car itself."
313
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我们将在汽车身上解决所有问题。“
13:55
No infrastructure, no problem.
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没有基本设施，没有问题。
13:58
We forgot about the entire chain around us.
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我们忘记了这些围绕着我们的产业链。
14:01
All this stuff that happens around.
316
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这些在我们身边发生的事情。
14:03
We are looking at the emergence of a car 2.0 --
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我们正关注汽车2.0的发展－－
14:06
a whole new market, a whole new business model.
318
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一个全新的市场，一个全新的商业模式。
14:09
The business model in which the money that is actually coming in,
319
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这个商业模式带来新的收益
14:12
to drive the car --
320
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驾驶汽车会促使，
14:14
the minutes, the miles if you want,
321
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时间，英里如果那比较便于理解，
14:16
that you are all familiar with --
322
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这些你熟悉的概念，
14:18
subsidize the price of the car,
323
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用来补助汽车的价钱，
14:21
just like cellphones. You'll pay for the miles.
324
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就像手机一样。你只负责驾驶距离。
14:23
And some of it will go back to the car maker.
325
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这些钱，一部分将会回到汽车制造商身上。
14:25
Some of it will go back to your own pocket.
326
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一部分将会回到你自己的口袋里。
14:28
But our cars are actually going to be cheaper than gasoline cars.
327
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我们的汽车将比汽油汽车便宜。
14:31
You're looking at a world where cars are matched with windmills.
328
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这将是一个汽车与风车磨坊相组合的世界。
14:35
In Denmark, we will drive all the cars in Denmark
329
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在丹麦，我们将依赖
14:38
from windmills, not from oil.
330
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风力而不是汽油，来驾驶所有的汽车。
14:41
In Israel, we've asked to put a solar farm
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在以色列，我们将在
14:45
in the south of Israel.
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南部建立一个太阳能磨坊。
14:47
And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space that you're asking for."
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人们说，"你们要的可是一个巨大的空间。”
14:50
And we said, "What if we had proven that in the same space
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我们回答，“如果我们证明在这个空间里
14:52
we found oil for the country for the next hundred years?"
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我们可以为这个国家找到足够一百年的石油？”
14:55
And they said, "We tried. There isn't any."
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他们说，“我们已经尝试过了。那里没有石油。”
14:57
We said, "No no, but what if we prove it?"
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我们说，"不，不，我们能证明，怎么样？“
14:59
And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided to dig up,
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然后他们说，”那你就挖吧。" 于是我们开始往上挖，
15:01
instead of digging down.
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并不是往下钻。
15:03
These are perfect matches to one another.
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这些是完全符合双方的资源。
15:06
Now all you need is about 10 percent
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现在你只需要百分之10
15:09
of the electricity generated.
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的所得电力。
15:11
Think of it as a project that spans over about 10 years.
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想像这个是持续10年的项目。
15:14
That's one percent a year.
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那便是平均每年百分之1。
15:16
Now when we're looking at solving big problems,
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现在我们正要解决一些主要的问题，
15:19
we need to start thinking in two numbers.
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我们必须开始考虑两个数字。
15:21
And those are not 20 percent by 2020.
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它们并不是在2010年达到百分之20。
15:23
The two numbers are zero -- as in zero footprint or zero oil --
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这两个数字是零，零排放量和零耗油量，
15:28
and scale it infinity.
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并且把它们的规模无穷的扩大。
15:31
And when we go to COP15 at the end of this year
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当我们去今年点底的COP15
15:33
we can't stop thinking of padding CO2.
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我们不停的在想如何衬垫二氧化碳。
15:35
We have to start thinking about giving kickers to countries
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我们得开始设想如何鼓励那些愿意
15:37
that are willing to go to this kind of scale.
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采用这个方案的国家。
15:40
One car emits four tons.
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一辆汽车排放4顿二氧化碳。
15:42
And actually 700 and change million cars today
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现时的7亿辆汽车
15:44
emit 2.8 billion tons of CO2.
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排放28亿顿二氧化碳。
15:47
That's, in the additive, about 25 percent of our problem.
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那只是我们所有问题的百分之25。
15:50
Cars and trucks add up to about 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions.
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汽车跟卡车二氧化碳排放量占世界二氧化碳排放量的百分之25。
15:55
We have to come and attack this problem
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我们得好好的解决这个问题
15:57
with a focus, with an effort that actually says,
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设定一个坚定的目标，
15:59
we're going to go to zero before the world ends.
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用我们的毅力说在世界末日之前，我们的汽车将不再排放任何二氧化碳。
16:02
I actually shared that with some legislators here in the U.S.
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事实上，我与部分美国参议院分享了这个想法。
16:06
I shared it with a gentleman called Bobby Kennedy Jr., who is one of my idols.
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我跟Bobby Kennedy Junior分享了这个想法。 他可是我其中的一位偶像。
16:11
I told him one of the reasons that
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我告诉他其中一个重要的原因
16:13
his uncle was remembered
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他的叔叔被人们记得
16:15
is because he said we're going to send a man to the moon,
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因为他说我们要把人类送上月球
16:18
and we'll do it by the end of the decade.
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我们将在这十年内达到这个目标。
16:20
We didn't say we're going to send a man 20 percent to the moon.
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我们并不是说我们有百分之20的把握把人送到月球。
16:23
And there will be about a 20 percent chance we'll recover him.
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尽管我们只有大概百分之20的把握能把这个人送回来。
16:26
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
16:29
He actually shared with me another story, which is from about 200 years ago.
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他于是给我讲了一个200年前的故事。
16:33
200 years ago, in Parliament, in Great Britain,
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200年前，在英国议会
16:36
there was a long argument
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存在着一个悠久的争议，
16:38
over economy versus morality.
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一个关于经济与道德的争议。
16:40
25 percent -- just like 25 percent emissions today comes from cars --
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百分之25，像我们今天所说的百分之25的汽车排放量，
16:44
25 percent of their energy
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百分之25的能源，
16:47
for the entire industrial world in the U.K.
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支持英国整个工业世界
16:50
came from a source of energy that was immoral:
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来自一个非常不道德的渠道：
16:53
human slaves.
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奴隶。
16:55
And there was an argument. Should we stop using slaves?
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于是便有了如此的一个争议。 我们应该停止使用奴隶吗？
16:58
And what would it do to our economy?
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如果我们停止使用奴隶，那我们的经济将变成怎样？
17:00
And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it.
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而且人们说，“那可得时间啊。”
17:02
Let's not do it immediately. Maybe we free the kids
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暂时先不要急。我们可以先把奴隶的孩子释放
17:04
and keep the slaves.
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把奴隶留着。
17:07
And after a month of arguments they decided to stop slavery,
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经过一个月的争论后，他们决定停止奴隶制。
17:10
and the industrial revolution started within less than one year.
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工业革命在不到一个月内随之诞生。
17:14
And the U.K. had 100 years of economic growth.
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英国因此获得100年的经济发展。
17:18
We have to make the right moral decision.
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我们得做出正确的道德选择。
17:21
We have to make it immediately.
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我们必须马上行动。
17:24
We need to have presidential leadership
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我们需要总统的领导
17:26
just like we had in Israel that said we will end oil.
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就像我们在以色列宣誓我们将不再使用石油。
17:30
And we need to do it not within 20 years or 50 years,
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我们需要在今天行动，不是在20年到50年之内，
17:34
but within this presidential term
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而是在这个总统任期内，
17:37
because if we don't, we will lose our economy,
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因为如果我们不采取行动，我们将失去我们的经济，
17:41
right after we'd lost our morality.
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接着我们将失去我们的道德体系。
17:43
Thank you all very much.
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谢谢大家！
17:45
(Applause)
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(掌声)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Shai Agassi - Green auto pioneerShai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it.
Why you should listen
When horrific climate-change scenarios elicit little but endless chatter from governments and entrenched special interests, the difference between talk and action represent an embarrassing gulf. Meet Shai Agassi, who has stepped fearlessly into that gap. His approach to solving the puzzle of electric automobiles could spark nothing short of an automotive revolution.
Agassi stunned the software industry in 2007 by resigning from SAP to focus on his vision for breaking the world's fossil-fuel habit, a cause he had championed since his fuse was lit at a Young Global Leaders conference in 2005. Through his enthusiastic persistence, Agassi's startup Better Place has signed up some impressive partners -- including Nissan-Renault and the countries of Israel and Denmark.
Shai Agassi | Speaker | TED.com