TED2009
Shai Agassi: A new ecosystem for electric cars
夏伊‧阿格西對於電動車的大膽計畫
Filmed:
Readability: 3.1
1,294,939 views
忘了油電混燃車 (Hybrid) 吧，夏伊‧阿格西認為，有效降低二氧化碳排放量的方法，就是使用電動車。他創立的公司 Better Place 有著不同凡響的計劃，讓整個國家在 2020 前，可以不用任何石油。
Shai Agassi - Green auto pioneer
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it. Full bio
Shai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
So how would you run a whole country without oil?
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一個國家要是沒有石油會如何？
00:22
That's the question that sort of hit me
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這問題是我四年前，
00:24
in the middle of a Davos afternoon about four years ago.
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在達沃斯(瑞士)的一個下午突然想到的。
00:27
It never left my brain.
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這問題纏著我好久
00:29
And I started playing with it more like a puzzle.
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所以我開始解決這個謎題
00:32
The original thought I had: this must be ethanol.
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我原本想，酒精是解決方式
00:34
So I went out and researched ethanol,
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所以我做了酒精的研究
00:36
and found out you need the Amazon in your backyard in every country.
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發現，每個國家都得要有亞馬遜雨林，才有辦法成功
00:39
About six months later I figured out it must be hydrogen,
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半年後，我覺得氮氣是解決方式
00:42
until some scientist told me the unfortunate truth,
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直到一些科學家告訴我這個不幸的事實，
00:45
which is, you actually use more
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就是，如果用氮氣，
00:48
clean electrons than the ones you get
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那我用掉的乾淨電子會比
00:50
inside a car, if you use hydrogen.
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汽車使用的電子還多。
00:52
So that is not going to be the path to go.
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所以這條路也行不通
00:55
And then sort of through a process of
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所以一連串的嘗試
00:58
wandering around, I got to the thought
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我終於想到
01:00
that actually if you could convert an entire country to electric cars,
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如果要整個國家都使用電動車
01:03
in a way that is convenient and affordable,
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那就要讓它方便、便宜
01:06
you could get to a solution.
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才有辦法解決這難題
01:09
Now I started this from a point of view that
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所以我的出發點是，
01:12
it has to be something that scales en masse.
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這解決方式一定要大規模的
01:14
Not how do you build one car,
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跟汽車製造無關
01:16
but how do you scale this so that it can become
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而是要讓它的規模大到
01:18
something that is used by 99 percent of the population?
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99%的人口都使用
01:23
The thought that came to mind is that it needs to be as good
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我的想法是，這東西一定要
01:26
as any car that you would have today.
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比現在汽車更好
01:28
So one, it has to be more convenient than a car.
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所以，第一：一定要比汽車方便
01:31
And two, it has be more affordable than today's cars.
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第二：一定要比現在的車價便宜
01:34
Affordable is not a 40,000 dollar sedan, right?
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一部轎車4萬可不叫便宜
01:37
Alright? That's not something that we can finance or buy today.
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對吧？這種價格普通人付不起
01:40
And convenient is not something that you drive for an hour and charge for eight.
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而開車1小時需充電8小時可不叫方便
01:44
So we're bound with the laws of physics
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所以我們需要考慮到物理限制
01:47
and the laws of economics.
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以及經濟限制
01:49
And so the thought that I started with was
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所以我開始想著
01:52
how do you do this, still within the boundary
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實際的計畫，還得要
01:55
of the science we know today --
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現在科學能達成才行
01:57
no time for science fair, no time for playing around with things
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否則我們沒有多餘時間
02:00
or waiting for the magic battery to show up.
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研究、等待魔術電池的發明
02:02
How do you do it within the economics that we have today?
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那要怎麼在現今經濟下達成？
02:04
How do you do it from the power of the consumer up?
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怎麼促進消費者自發的能力？
02:06
And not from the power of an edict down.
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而非從法令規定下手
02:09
On a random visit to Tesla on some afternoon,
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有次參觀特斯拉(Tesla美國電動車廠)時，
02:12
I actually found out that the answer comes
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我終於發現，答案就是
02:14
from separating between the car ownership
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車廠與電池廠的
02:17
and the battery ownership.
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區分機制
02:19
In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic
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你想想就是經典的：
02:22
"batteries not included."
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「本品不附電池」
02:25
Now if you separate between the two,
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如果你將兩者分開
02:27
you could actually answer the need for a convenient car
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就是一台便利的車所需要的
02:30
by creating a network,
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就由創造一種網路
02:32
by creating a network before the cars show up.
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在汽車出現前，創造這種網路
02:35
The network has two components in them.
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這網路有兩個部份
02:38
First component is you charge the car whenever you stop --
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第一部分：車停的時候，馬上充電
02:41
ends up that cars are these strange beasts that drive
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結果是，這些車變成
02:44
for about two hours and park for about 22 hours.
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開2小時車，得充電22小時
02:47
If you drive a car in the morning and drive it back in the afternoon
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如果早上開車出門，下午開車回家
02:51
the ratio of charge to drive is about a minute for a minute.
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充電與開車比例是一分鐘比一分鐘
02:54
And so the first thought that came to mind is,
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所以我馬上想到
02:56
everywhere we park we have electric power.
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讓所有停車處都要有電力設備
02:59
Now it sounds crazy. But in some places around the world,
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聽起來很瘋狂，但有很多國家
03:01
like Scandinavia, you already have that.
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像是北歐，已經這麼做了
03:04
If you park your car and didn't plug in the heater,
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如果停車的時候，沒插上暖風裝置
03:06
when you come back you don't have a car. It just doesn't work.
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你要開的時候就發不動了
03:09
Now that last mile,
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最後一哩，
03:12
last foot, in a sense,
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或說最後一步
03:14
is the first step of the infrastructure.
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就是基礎建設的第一步
03:15
The second step of the infrastructure needs to take care
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第二步就是，基礎建設需要做到
03:17
of the range extension.
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範圍的擴大
03:19
See we're bound by today's technology on batteries,
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電池發展受限於現今的科技
03:22
which is about 120 miles if you want to stay within
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已一般空間、重量來算
03:24
reasonable space and weight limitations.
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大概是120英里
03:28
120 miles is a good enough range for a lot of people.
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120英里對大部份人來說已經足夠
03:32
But you never want to get stuck.
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但沒人希望途中突然沒電
03:34
So what we added is a second element to our network,
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所以我們的網路加進第二部份
03:36
which is a battery swap system.
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也就是電池交換站
03:38
You drive. You take your depleted battery out.
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你開車，電池沒電了
03:41
A full battery comes on. And you drive on.
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到交換站換電池，繼續開
03:44
You don't do it as a human being. You do it as a machine.
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非常機械化的過程
03:46
It looks like a car wash. You come into your car wash.
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有點像是洗車服務
03:49
And a plate comes up, holds your battery, takes it out, puts it back in, and
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所以將板子打開，電池取車，充電放入
03:52
within two minutes you're back on the road
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不到兩分鐘就可以上路了
03:54
and you can go again.
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就這麼簡單
03:57
If you had charge spots everywhere,
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如果到哪都有充電處、
03:59
and you had battery swap stations everywhere,
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到處都有電池交換站
04:01
how often would you do it? And it ends up
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那你多久需要充電一次？
04:03
that you'd do swapping less times than you stop at a gas station.
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結果是，比你到加油站的數量還少
04:07
As a matter of fact, we added to the contract.
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事實上，我們契約中有一條
04:10
We said that if you stop to swap your battery more than 50 times a year
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說明，如果你一年需要到充電站超過50次，
04:13
we start paying you money
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我們就會付你錢
04:15
because it's an inconvenience.
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因為這樣對你不便利
04:17
Then we looked at the question of the affordability.
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再來，我們來看價格問題
04:20
We looked at the question, what happens when the battery is
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我們研究，如果電池與車子分離
04:22
disconnected from the car.
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會如何？
04:24
What is the cost of that battery?
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那電池花費是多少？
04:26
Everybody tells us batteries are so expensive.
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每個人都反應電池太貴
04:28
What we found out, when you move from molecules to electrons,
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我們發現，如果你從分子移到電子
04:31
something interesting happens.
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有趣的事就發生了
04:33
We can go back to the original economics of the car and look at it again.
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我們回到原本的汽車經濟情況，重新審視
04:36
The battery is not the gas tank, in a sense.
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電池與油箱，基本上是不同的
04:38
Remember in your car you have a gas tank.
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記得汽車是使用油箱
04:40
You have the crude oil.
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獲取原油後
04:42
And you have refining and delivery of that crude oil
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提煉、運輸，原油就變成
04:44
as what we call petrol or gasoline.
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我們所使用的汽油
04:46
The battery in this sense, is the crude oil.
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電池某方面來說，就像原油
04:50
We have a battery bay. It costs the same hundred dollars
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我們有電池海灣，與油箱的花費相同
04:53
as the gas tank.
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幾百塊而已
04:55
But the crude oil is replaced with a battery.
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但電池取代石油的功能
04:57
Just it doesn't burn. It consumes itself
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不會燃燒，電池會一步步
04:59
step after step after step.
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自己耗損
05:01
It has 2,000 life cycles these days.
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現在的電池可以充電兩千次
05:03
And so it's sort of a mini well.
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就像個小油井
05:06
We were asked in the past when we bought an electric car
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之前，我們買電動車時
05:08
to pay for the entire well, for the life of the car.
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等於是負擔整個油井的價錢
05:10
Nobody wants to buy a mini well when they buy a car.
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沒有人買車時，想花這麼多錢個小油井
05:13
In a sense what we've done is
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所以我們做的是
05:15
we've created a new consumable.
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創造一種新耗材
05:17
You, today, buy gasoline miles.
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現在大家買的是汽油里程
05:19
And we created electric miles.
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我們就創造電子里程
05:22
And the price of electric miles ends up being a very interesting number.
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電子里程價錢加起來是個有趣的數字
05:26
Today 2010, in volume,
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2010的今日，大量來說
05:28
when we come to market, it is eight cents a mile.
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我們的市場價格是一英里8分美元
05:32
Those of you who have a hard time calculating what that means --
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如果你數學不好的
05:34
in the average consumer
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美國目前平均
05:37
environment we're in in the U.S.
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汽油花費是
05:39
20 miles per gallon that's a buck 50, a buck 60 a gallon.
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一加侖20英里，1.5到1.6美金
05:42
That's cheaper than today's gasoline, even in the U.S.
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比油價便宜多了，連在美國也一樣
05:46
In Europe where taxes are in place,
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歐洲因為稅法嚴格
05:49
that's the equivalent to a minus 60 dollar barrel.
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計算起來等於一桶負60元美金
05:54
But e-miles follow Moore's Law.
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但電子里程根據摩爾定律
05:58
They go from eight cents a mile in 2010,
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2010年的一哩8分美金
06:01
to four cents a mile in 2015,
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到2010年變成4分
06:03
to two cents a mile by 2020.
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2020年只有2分美金
06:07
Why? Because batteries life cycle improve --
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為什麼？因為電池壽命增加－
06:10
a bit of improvement on energy density, which reduces the price.
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能源密集的技術進步，讓價格降低
06:13
And these prices are actually with clean electrons.
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這些價格都是乾淨的電子
06:16
We do not use any electrons that come from coal.
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完全沒用到煤炭
06:20
So in a sense this is
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這樣看來
06:22
an absolute zero-carbon, zero-fossil fuel
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這是完全無碳、無化石燃料的
06:25
electric mile at two cents a mile by 2020.
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電子里程在2020年，一哩只要2分錢
06:29
Now even if we get to 40 miles per gallon
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如果順利的話，2020年的石油
06:31
by 2020, which is our desire.
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若達到一加崙40哩
06:33
Imagine only 40 miles per gallon cars would be on the road.
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想像一加崙40哩在路上跑
06:36
That is an 80 cent gallon.
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一加崙等於80分
06:38
An 80 cent gallon means, if the entire Pacific
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一加崙80分等於是等個太平洋
06:40
would convert to crude oil,
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都變成原油才能達成
06:42
and we'd let any oil company bring it out and refine it,
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然後讓石油公司獲取、提煉
06:45
they still can't compete with two cents a mile.
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還是無法與一哩2分錢比較
06:49
That's a new economic factor,
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這是個新的經濟因素
06:51
which is fascinating to most people.
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大部分人都感興趣
06:53
Now this would have been a wonderful paper.
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寫成論文發表應該也不錯
06:55
That's how I solved it in my head. It was a white paper I handed out to governments.
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這是我腦子裡的想法，送給一些政府看的是一份白皮書
06:58
And some governments told me that it's fascinating
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有些政府官員告訴我，他們覺得很有趣
07:00
that the younger generation actually thinks about these things.
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年輕人竟然會去關心這種事
07:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:04
Until I got to the
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直到我連絡上
07:06
true young global leader, Shimon Peres, President of Israel,
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真正、年輕的全球領袖－以色列總統西蒙‧佩雷斯(Shimon Peres)
07:09
and he ran a beautiful manipulation on me.
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他後來擺了我一道
07:12
First he let me go to the prime minister of the country,
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首先他讓我去找總理
07:14
who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network,
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總理告訴我，如果我能籌到建構這網路所需的
07:16
200 million dollars,
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兩億美金
07:18
and if you can find a car company
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還有，找到一家車廠
07:20
that will build that car in mass volume,
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願意大量生產以色列所需的
07:22
in two million cars -- that's what we needed in Israel --
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兩百萬台電動車
07:24
I'll give you country to invest the 200 million into.
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他就給我一個國家讓我實行這計畫
07:28
Peres thought that was a great idea.
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佩雷斯覺得這是個好點子
07:31
So we went out, and we looked at all the car companies.
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所以我們開始尋找車商
07:35
We sent letters to all the car companies.
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寄信給他們
07:37
Three of them never showed up. One of them asked us
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有三家完全不搭理，其中一家說
07:39
if we would stay with hybrids and they would give us a discount.
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如果我們繼續用油電混燃車(hybrid)，就給我們打折
07:42
But one of them Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan,
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但其中一位，雷諾-日產的總裁卡洛斯·戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)
07:45
when asked about hybrids said something very fascinating.
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說了一段我們覺得很棒的話
07:48
He said hybrids are like mermaids.
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他說，油電混燃車就像美人魚
07:50
When you want a fish you get a woman and
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你要魚的時候，得到的是美人
07:52
when you need a woman you get a fish.
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你要美人的時候，得到的是魚
07:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:57
And Ghosn came up and said,
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戈恩就說：
07:59
"I have the car, Mr. Peres; I will build you the cars."
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「我有車，佩雷斯總統，我可以幫你製造車子」
08:01
And actually true to form, Renault has put a billion and a half dollars
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這是真的，雷諾投入了15億資金
08:04
in building nine different types of cars that fit this kind of model
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生產了九種不同款式的電動車
08:07
that will come into the market in mass volume --
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將會大量上市
08:10
mass volume being the first year, 100 thousand cars.
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第一年的數量將達十萬部
08:13
It's the first mass-volume electric car,
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這是第一批大量生產的電動車
08:15
zero-emission electric car in the market.
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零排放量的電動車上市了
08:18
I was running, as Chris said,
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如Chris介紹，我當時
08:22
to be the CEO of a large software company called SAP
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正在爭取SAP(軟體公司)執行長的位子
08:25
And then Peres said, "Well won't you run this project?"
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然後佩雷斯要求我負責這個專案
08:29
And I said, "I'm ready for CEO" And he said,
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我說，我已經要接任執行長了，他告訴我，
08:31
"Oh no no no no no. You've got to explain to me,
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「不不不，除非你能告訴我，」
08:34
what is more important than saving your country and saving the world,
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「有什麼事會比拯救你的國家、世界更重要，」
08:36
that you would go and do?"
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「而且你非做不可的？」
08:38
And I had to quit and come and do this thing called A Better Place.
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所以我辭了CEO，專心弄A Better Place公司
08:40
We then decided to scale it up.
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後來我們決定擴大規模
08:43
We went to other countries. As I said we went to Denmark.
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我們到其他國家--丹麥
08:45
And Denmark set this beautiful policy;
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丹麥有個美妙的政策
08:47
it's called the IQ test.
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叫智力測驗
08:49
It's inversely proportional to taxes.
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測驗成績與稅額成反比
08:51
They put 180 percent tax on gasoline cars
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他們對汽車課了180%的稅
08:55
and zero tax on zero-emission cars.
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零排放量的車就免稅
08:57
So if you want to buy a gasoline car in Denmark, it costs you about 60,000 Euros.
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在丹麥，買部汽車要花六萬歐元
09:01
If you buy our car it's about 20,000 Euros.
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買電動車只要兩萬歐元
09:03
If you fail the IQ test they ask you to leave the country.
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如果智力測驗結果太低，就會被逼離丹麥
09:06
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:08
We then were sort of coined as the guys
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大家對我們的印象就是
09:10
who run only in small islands.
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只在小島活動而已
09:12
I know most people don't think of Israel as a small island,
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我知道大部分人，不認為以色列是小島
09:14
but Israel is an island -- it's a transportation island.
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但它的確是座島，一座運輸島
09:17
If your car is driving outside Israel it's been stolen.
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如果發現你的車開出以色列，一定是被偷了
09:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:22
If you're thinking about it in terms of islands,
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如果要以島作為目標
09:25
we decided to go to the biggest island that we could find,
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我們決定去世上最大的島
09:27
and that was Australia. The third country we announced was Australia.
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就是澳洲了，第三個目的地就是澳洲
09:30
It's got three centers --
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它有三大城：
09:32
in Brisbane, in Melbourne, in Sydney --
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墨爾本、布里斯本、雪梨
09:35
and one freeway, one electric freeway that connects them.
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一條電動高速公路連結三地
09:37
The next island
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下一座島
09:39
was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii.
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不難找，就是夏威夷
09:41
We decided to come into the U.S.
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我們決定進軍美國
09:43
and pick the two best places --
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選了最棒的兩個地點
09:45
the one where you didn't need any range extension.
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第一個地點，不需要擴大規模
09:47
Hawaii you can drive around the island on one battery.
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在夏威夷，一顆電池就能跑整座島
09:49
And if you really have a long day you can switch,
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如果要開一整天，頂多再換上一顆電池
09:51
and keep on driving around the island.
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就能繼續開車環島
09:53
The second one was the San Francisco Bay Area
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第二個地點，是舊金山灣區
09:55
where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors.
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市長Gavin Newsom定了個全新政策
09:58
He decided that he's going to take over
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他決定掌管整個加州
10:00
the state, unofficially, and then officially,
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先非正式接收、再正式接收
10:03
and then created this beautiful Region One policy.
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這美妙的政策叫第一區政策
10:07
In the San Francisco Bay Area not only do you have
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舊金山灣區有密度最高的
10:09
the highest concentration of Priuses,
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豐田(油電兩用車Prius)數量
10:11
but you also have the perfect range extender.
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還有最完美的增程引擎(電力用完後使用燃油)
10:13
It's called the other car.
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被稱為「另類車」
10:15
As we stared scaling it up
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我們開始擴大規模
10:18
we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.?
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想想美國所面臨的問題
10:21
Why is this a big issue?
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到底是什麼？
10:23
And the most fascinating thing we've learned is that,
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我們所學到最有趣的事情就是
10:25
when you have small problems on the individual level,
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當你以個人層面來思考小問題
10:28
like the price of gasoline to drive every morning.
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像是每天要加的油價
10:31
You don't notice it, but when the aggregate comes up
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平常不會注意，但所有油價加總起來
10:33
you're dead. Alright?
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會嚇死人，對吧？
10:35
So the price of oil, much like
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所以油價，
10:38
lots of other curves that we've seen,
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如我們看到的曲線
10:40
goes along a depletion curve.
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是呈現消減狀態的
10:42
The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground.
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曲線幅度之所以越來越大，是因為接近地面的石油漸漸挖光了
10:45
And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground.
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我們就必須挖的更深
10:48
It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out.
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所以開挖石油越來越貴
10:50
You think, well it's been up, it's been down,
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想想看，曲線上升又下降
10:53
its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down.
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上升過了，又會下降再上升
10:55
Here is the problem:
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問題來了：
10:57
at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago,
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半年前的一桶147美元價格
11:00
the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil.
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美國花了一大把錢獲得石油
11:04
Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47 --
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經濟蕭條後回到47美元
11:07
sometimes it's 40, sometimes it's 50.
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偶爾在40到50元間浮動
11:09
Now we're running a stimulus package.
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現在提倡的振興經濟方案
11:11
It's called the trillion-dollar stimulus package.
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一兆元振興經濟方案
11:13
We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015,
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我們拿來救經濟，希望到2015年能達成
11:17
somewhere in that space.
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約五年的時間
11:19
What happens when the economy recovers?
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那經濟復甦後會發生什麼事呢？
11:22
By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars
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到2015年，我們會生產至少兩億五千萬部新車
11:27
even at the pace we're going at right now.
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以目前的速度推算
11:29
That's another 30 percent demand on oil.
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石油的供應會增加30%
11:31
That is another 25 million barrels a day.
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等於一天需要額外2500萬桶石油
11:34
That's all the U.S. usage today.
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這是現今全美的需求量
11:38
In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak.
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換句話說，當我們景氣回升到頂點
11:41
And then we do the OPEC stimulus package
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當我們實行石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)的
11:43
also known as 200 dollars a barrel.
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一桶200美元刺激方案
11:45
We take our money and we give it away.
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錢花掉後，還是回到原點
11:47
You know what happens at that point?
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到時候會發生什麼事？
11:49
We go back down. It's going to go up and down.
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我們會走下坡，上上下下
11:51
And the downs are going to be much longer
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下坡將會更久
11:53
and the ups are going to be much shorter.
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復原將會更慢
11:55
And that's the difference between problems that are additive,
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這之間的差距就是附加性的問題：
11:58
like CO2, which we go slowly up and then we tip,
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像二氧化碳，慢慢增加後到達頂點；
12:01
and problems that are depletive,
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以及耗減性的問題：
12:03
in which we lose what we have,
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我們資源慢慢耗盡；
12:05
which oscillate, and they oscillate until
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兩種問題造成曲線的不斷波動
12:07
we lose everything we've got.
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直到失去所有東西為止
12:11
Now we actually looked at what the answer would be.
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所以我們開始找尋答案
12:13
Right? Remember in the campaign: one million
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是吧？記住這口號，2015年以前，
12:15
hybrid cars by 2015.
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油電混燃車數量將達一百萬部
12:19
That is 0.5 percent of the U.S. oil consumption.
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這是美國石油耗量的0.5%
12:23
That is oh point oh well percent of the rest of the world.
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其他國家的零點零幾
12:28
That won't do much difference.
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改變實在不大
12:30
We looked at an MIT study:
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來看麻省理工學院的研究
12:32
ten million electric cars on the global roads.
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全球一千萬部電動車在跑
12:35
Ten million out of 500 million we will add between now and then.
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我們目標五億台電動車中的一千萬部而已
12:39
That is the most pessimistic number you can have.
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感覺起來離目標還很遠
12:41
It's also the most optimistic number
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但這數字同時也表示
12:43
because it means we will scale this industry
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我們對於未來發展有樂觀的前景
12:46
from 100 thousand cars is 2011,
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從2011年的十萬部車
12:48
to 10 million cars by 2016 --
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到2016年的一千萬部車－
12:52
100 x growth in less than five years.
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不到五年，100倍的成長
12:57
You have to remember that the world today is bringing in so many cars.
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要想想，世界對於車子的需求有多龐大
13:00
We have 10 million cars by region.
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各地區約一千萬部
13:03
That's an enormous amount of cars.
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車子的數量很驚人
13:05
China is adding those cars --
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中國的汽車數量增加，
13:07
India, Russia, Brazil.
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還有印度、俄羅斯、巴西
13:09
We have all these regions.
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這些地方都要算進來
13:11
Europe has solved it. They just put a tax on gasoline.
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歐洲已經解決了，他們增加石油稅
13:13
They'll be the first in line to get off
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將會率先解決石油問題
13:15
because their prices are high.
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因為油價過高
13:17
China solves it by an edict. At some point they'll just declare
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中國只要一個政策下去便能解決，
13:19
that no gasoline car will come into a city, and that will be it.
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只要宣佈不再進口石油，一下就能解決了
13:23
The Indians don't even understand why we think of it as a problem
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印度人，還沒意識到發生什麼事
13:26
because most people in India fill two or three gallons every time.
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印度大部分人，每次只加2到3加侖的油
13:28
For them to get a battery that goes 120 miles
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對他們來說，買顆會跑120哩的電池
13:31
is an extension on range, not a reduction in range.
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距離不夠長，其實用不到這麼多
13:35
We're the only ones who don't have the price set right.
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我們幾乎是唯一油價沒定對、
13:38
We don't have the industry set right.
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工業設置也不對的國家
13:40
We don't have any incentive to go and resolve it
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我們根本也沒有誘因
13:42
across the U.S.
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去解決這問題
13:44
Now where is the car industry on that?
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那汽車工業的立場呢？
13:46
Very interesting. The car industry has been focused just on themselves.
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很有趣的是，汽車工業只專注於它們自己
13:49
They basically looked at it and said, "Car 1.0
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他們隨便研究了一下，就覺得
13:51
we'll solve everything within the car itself."
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新版汽車1.0就會解決目前的問題
13:55
No infrastructure, no problem.
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不需要基礎建設、沒有問題
13:58
We forgot about the entire chain around us.
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我們忘了身邊整個大環節
14:01
All this stuff that happens around.
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身旁已經發生的所有事
14:03
We are looking at the emergence of a car 2.0 --
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我們現在已經有2.0版的車了
14:06
a whole new market, a whole new business model.
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一個新市場、新商業模型
14:09
The business model in which the money that is actually coming in,
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這商業模型，其實會讓車子
14:12
to drive the car --
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越開越便宜
14:14
the minutes, the miles if you want,
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里程數、分鐘數這些
14:16
that you are all familiar with --
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你們都清楚的概念
14:18
subsidize the price of the car,
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是可以補貼車價的
14:21
just like cellphones. You'll pay for the miles.
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就像手機，里程數也是用付的
14:23
And some of it will go back to the car maker.
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一部份會回到車商身上
14:25
Some of it will go back to your own pocket.
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一部分回到自己口袋
14:28
But our cars are actually going to be cheaper than gasoline cars.
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但電動車將會比汽車便宜
14:31
You're looking at a world where cars are matched with windmills.
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未來的世界，車子將會是風力發電
14:35
In Denmark, we will drive all the cars in Denmark
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在丹麥，大家所開的車
14:38
from windmills, not from oil.
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都來自風力發電，而非石油
14:41
In Israel, we've asked to put a solar farm
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在以色列，我們要求在南部設置
14:45
in the south of Israel.
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太陽能電廠
14:47
And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space that you're asking for."
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有人質疑：「你要求的土地很大一塊欸」
14:50
And we said, "What if we had proven that in the same space
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我們就問：「如果我們能證明」
14:52
we found oil for the country for the next hundred years?"
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「該地有可供我國下一世紀的石油量呢？」
14:55
And they said, "We tried. There isn't any."
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他們說：「我們調查過了，沒石油」
14:57
We said, "No no, but what if we prove it?"
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我們說：「不，我可以證明有。」
14:59
And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided to dig up,
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「那你們開挖吧。」但我們決定往上建造(太陽能廠)
15:01
instead of digging down.
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而非向下開挖
15:03
These are perfect matches to one another.
340
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石油與電力是相匹配的
15:06
Now all you need is about 10 percent
341
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而且只需要
15:09
of the electricity generated.
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總發電量的10%
15:11
Think of it as a project that spans over about 10 years.
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當成是個可運行十年的計畫
15:14
That's one percent a year.
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一年是1%
15:16
Now when we're looking at solving big problems,
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現在我們來看要怎麼解決大問題
15:19
we need to start thinking in two numbers.
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我們必須從兩個數字來考量
15:21
And those are not 20 percent by 2020.
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這兩個數字不是2020年達到20%
15:23
The two numbers are zero -- as in zero footprint or zero oil --
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這兩個數字分別是零－ 0碳足跡、0石油；
15:28
and scale it infinity.
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然後乘以無限大∞
15:31
And when we go to COP15 at the end of this year
350
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到哥本哈根開第15屆氣候變遷會議(COP15)時
15:33
we can't stop thinking of padding CO2.
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我們不能只想著漸增的二氧化碳量
15:35
We have to start thinking about giving kickers to countries
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我們必須想一些方法，讓世界各國
15:37
that are willing to go to this kind of scale.
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能自發地開始做改變
15:40
One car emits four tons.
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一輛車有四噸的排放量
15:42
And actually 700 and change million cars today
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現在的七億多輛汽車
15:44
emit 2.8 billion tons of CO2.
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排放28億二氧化碳
15:47
That's, in the additive, about 25 percent of our problem.
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這是附加性問題，僅是我們所面臨問題的25%
15:50
Cars and trucks add up to about 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions.
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汽車、卡車加起來約是全世界二氧化碳排放量的25%
15:55
We have to come and attack this problem
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我們需要一同解決這個問題
15:57
with a focus, with an effort that actually says,
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專心、致力於這個目標
15:59
we're going to go to zero before the world ends.
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世界毀滅前，排放量降到零
16:02
I actually shared that with some legislators here in the U.S.
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我與一些美國國會議員討論過
16:06
I shared it with a gentleman called Bobby Kennedy Jr., who is one of my idols.
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有位羅伯特甘迺迪二世，他是我的偶像
16:11
I told him one of the reasons that
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我告訴他，他的叔叔(甘迺迪總統)
16:13
his uncle was remembered
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被世人記著的原因之一
16:15
is because he said we're going to send a man to the moon,
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是因為他當初堅決要在十年之內
16:18
and we'll do it by the end of the decade.
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將人類送上月球並安全地返回
16:20
We didn't say we're going to send a man 20 percent to the moon.
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他並沒有說，我們送一個人的20%上月球
16:23
And there will be about a 20 percent chance we'll recover him.
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然後他回來的機率有20%
16:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
16:29
He actually shared with me another story, which is from about 200 years ago.
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羅伯特告訴了我一個200年前的故事
16:33
200 years ago, in Parliament, in Great Britain,
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200年前，英國的國會
16:36
there was a long argument
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有個很長的辯論
16:38
over economy versus morality.
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有關於經濟與道德
16:40
25 percent -- just like 25 percent emissions today comes from cars --
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如現今我們有25%的排放量來自汽車
16:44
25 percent of their energy
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當時全英國的工業，
16:47
for the entire industrial world in the U.K.
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有25%的力量來源
16:50
came from a source of energy that was immoral:
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都來自非常不道德的
16:53
human slaves.
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奴隸市場
16:55
And there was an argument. Should we stop using slaves?
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所以辯論是，我們是否該停用奴隸？
16:58
And what would it do to our economy?
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這樣對經濟有何影響？
17:00
And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it.
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有些人說：「我們應該一步步來」
17:02
Let's not do it immediately. Maybe we free the kids
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「也許先從解放童工開始，」
17:04
and keep the slaves.
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「奴隸還是留著。」
17:07
And after a month of arguments they decided to stop slavery,
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長達一個月的辯論，他們決定禁止使用奴隸
17:10
and the industrial revolution started within less than one year.
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之後一年內，工業革命開始了
17:14
And the U.K. had 100 years of economic growth.
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而英國就有了100年的經濟成長
17:18
We have to make the right moral decision.
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我們必須做出對的道德決定
17:21
We have to make it immediately.
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並且需要立刻決定
17:24
We need to have presidential leadership
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我們需要總統級的領導
17:26
just like we had in Israel that said we will end oil.
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就像以色列決定停用石油
17:30
And we need to do it not within 20 years or 50 years,
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我們需要在這個總統任期內達成
17:34
but within this presidential term
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而非20、50年
17:37
because if we don't, we will lose our economy,
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如果不這麼做，我們在失去經濟能力前
17:41
right after we'd lost our morality.
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將先失去我們的道德觀
17:43
Thank you all very much.
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謝謝各位
17:45
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Shai Agassi - Green auto pioneerShai Agassi wants to put you behind the wheel of an electric car -- but he doesn't want you to sacrifice convenience (or cash) to do it.
Why you should listen
When horrific climate-change scenarios elicit little but endless chatter from governments and entrenched special interests, the difference between talk and action represent an embarrassing gulf. Meet Shai Agassi, who has stepped fearlessly into that gap. His approach to solving the puzzle of electric automobiles could spark nothing short of an automotive revolution.
Agassi stunned the software industry in 2007 by resigning from SAP to focus on his vision for breaking the world's fossil-fuel habit, a cause he had championed since his fuse was lit at a Young Global Leaders conference in 2005. Through his enthusiastic persistence, Agassi's startup Better Place has signed up some impressive partners -- including Nissan-Renault and the countries of Israel and Denmark.
Shai Agassi | Speaker | TED.com