TED2005
Bjorn Lomborg: Global priorities bigger than climate change
Bjorn 为全球问题订定先后次序
Filmed:
Readability: 3.3
1,695,569 views
如果你有五百亿元，你首先会用来解决哪些问题？是爱滋病还是全球暖化？丹麦政治科学家Bjorn Lomborg 提出了出人意表的答案。
Bjorn Lomborg - Global prioritizer
Danish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg heads the Copenhagen Consensus, which has prioritized the world's greatest problems -- global warming, world poverty, disease -- based on how effective our solutions might be. It's a thought-provoking, even provocative list. Full bio
Danish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg heads the Copenhagen Consensus, which has prioritized the world's greatest problems -- global warming, world poverty, disease -- based on how effective our solutions might be. It's a thought-provoking, even provocative list. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
What I'd like to talk about is really the biggest problems in the world.
0
0
4000
我今天想和大家谈的都是地球上最严重的问题。
00:28
I'm not going to talk about "The Skeptical Environmentalist" --
1
4000
2000
我不会谈到《持怀疑论的环保分子》这本书
00:30
probably that's also a good choice.
2
6000
2000
虽然那未尝不是一个好选择。
00:32
(Laughter)
3
8000
1000
（笑声）
00:33
But I am going talk about: what are the big problems in the world?
4
9000
3000
我要说的， 是地球上最严重的问题是什么？
00:36
And I must say, before I go on, I should ask every one of you
5
12000
3000
在我继续之前，我想请在座每一位朋友，
00:39
to try and get out pen and paper
6
15000
2000
拿出纸和笔，
00:41
because I'm actually going to ask you to help me to look at how we do that.
7
17000
3000
因为我将会请大家和我一起试试，看我们是怎样找出答案的。
00:44
So get out your pen and paper.
8
20000
2000
所以请你拿出纸和笔。
00:46
Bottom line is, there is a lot of problems out there in the world.
9
22000
2000
我们的底线，是我们这个世界有很多问题。
00:48
I'm just going to list some of them.
10
24000
2000
让我列举其中一些：
00:50
There are 800 million people starving.
11
26000
2000
全球有八亿人处于饥饿之中；
00:52
There's a billion people without clean drinking water.
12
28000
2000
有十亿人没有清洁食水；
00:54
Two billion people without sanitation.
13
30000
2000
二十亿人没有基本卫生设施；
00:56
There are several million people dying of HIV and AIDS.
14
32000
3000
几百万人死于爱滋病毒及爱滋病；
00:59
The lists go on and on.
15
35000
2000
这个清单可以一直数下去，
01:01
There's two billions of people who will be severely affected by climate change -- so on.
16
37000
5000
二十亿人会受到气候改变的严重影响 -- 等等， 等等。
01:06
There are many, many problems out there.
17
42000
2000
这个世界有很多很多的问题。
01:08
In an ideal world, we would solve them all, but we don't.
18
44000
4000
在一个完美的世界， 我们会解决所有的问题，可是实际上我们不会，
01:12
We don't actually solve all problems.
19
48000
2000
在现实世界，我们不会解决所有的问题。
01:14
And if we do not, the question I think we need to ask ourselves --
20
50000
4000
既然我们不会解决所有的问题，那我们便要问问自己 --
01:18
and that's why it's on the economy session -- is to say,
21
54000
3000
这就是为什么这场演讲被安排在经济时段--
01:21
if we don't do all things, we really have to start asking ourselves,
22
57000
3000
既然我们不会应付全部问题，我们就应该开始问自己，
01:24
which ones should we solve first?
23
60000
2000
我们应该先解决那些问题?
01:26
And that's the question I'd like to ask you.
24
62000
2000
这就是今天我要问大家的问题。
01:28
If we had say, 50 billion dollars over the next four years to spend
25
64000
5000
设想如果我们有五百亿元，可以在未来四年，
01:33
to do good in this world, where should we spend it?
26
69000
3000
用来为世界做点事，我们应该把钱花在哪儿？
01:36
We identified 10 of the biggest challenges in the world,
27
72000
3000
我们找出地球面临的十项最大挑战，
01:39
and I will just briefly read them:
28
75000
2000
让我很快的念出来。
01:41
climate change, communicable diseases, conflicts, education,
29
77000
2000
气候变化，传染病，冲突， 教育，
01:43
financial instability, governance and corruption,
30
79000
2000
金融波动，政府管治，贪污
01:45
malnutrition and hunger, population migration,
31
81000
3000
营养不良及饥荒，人口迁移，
01:48
sanitation and water, and subsidies and trade barriers.
32
84000
3000
卫生及水源，经济资助及贸易壁壘。
01:51
We believe that these in many ways
33
87000
2000
我们相信在很大程度上，
01:53
encompass the biggest problems in the world.
34
89000
2000
它们涵盖了世界最严重的问题。
01:55
The obvious question would be to ask,
35
91000
2000
很明显，我们要问的问题是
01:57
what do you think are the biggest things?
36
93000
2000
哪些才是这些问题当中最重要的？
01:59
Where should we start on solving these problems?
37
95000
3000
我们该从哪个问题着手解决呢？
02:02
But that's a wrong problem to ask.
38
98000
2000
不过，这个问题其实问得不对，
02:04
That was actually the problem that was asked in Davos in January.
39
100000
3000
今年一月在瑞士达沃斯， 有人就确实提出过这个问题。
02:07
But of course, there's a problem in asking people to focus on problems.
40
103000
3000
当然， 把注意力集中在问题上，本身就是一个问题，
02:10
Because we can't solve problems.
41
106000
3000
因为总有我们解决不了的问题。
02:13
Surely the biggest problem we have in the world is that we all die.
42
109000
3000
我们都知道这个世界面对的最大问题就是我们都会死，
02:16
But we don't have a technology to solve that, right?
43
112000
2000
还没有一种科技可以解决这个问题，对不对？
02:18
So the point is not to prioritize problems,
44
114000
3000
所以最重要的，不是为问题订出先后次序，
02:21
but the point is to prioritize solutions to problems.
45
117000
4000
而是为解决方法订出先后次序。
02:25
And that would be -- of course that gets a little more complicated.
46
121000
3000
那就是说 -- 当然真正的情况没有那么简单，
02:28
To climate change that would be like Kyoto.
47
124000
2000
气候变化的解决方法可能是京都协议，
02:30
To communicable diseases, it might be health clinics or mosquito nets.
48
126000
3000
传染病的解决方法可能是医疗诊所和蚊帐，
02:33
To conflicts, it would be U.N.'s peacekeeping forces, and so on.
49
129000
3000
冲突的解决方法可能是联合国维持和平部队等等。
02:36
The point that I would like to ask you to try to do,
50
132000
5000
我想大家一起尝试做的是，
02:41
is just in 30 seconds -- and I know this is in a sense
51
137000
3000
请你在三十秒之内 – 我知道这几乎是
02:44
an impossible task -- write down what you think
52
140000
2000
不可能的 – 写出你认为
02:46
is probably some of the top priorities.
53
142000
2000
应该最优先着手的项目。
02:48
And also -- and that's, of course, where economics gets evil --
54
144000
3000
还有 -- 这就是为什么经济考虑教人那么为难 --
02:51
to put down what are the things we should not do, first.
55
147000
3000
请你也写出哪些项目无须即时处理，
02:54
What should be at the bottom of the list?
56
150000
2000
请你也写出哪些项目无须即时处理，
02:56
Please, just take 30 seconds, perhaps talk to your neighbor,
57
152000
3000
应该放到清单的最后。€
02:59
and just figure out what should be the top priorities
58
155000
2000
请你试试，在三十秒之内，你可以和旁边的人商量，
03:01
and the bottom priorities of the solutions that we have
59
157000
2000
想想哪些解决方法应该最优先进行，
03:03
to the world's biggest issues.
60
159000
2000
用来解决世界上最严重的问题。
03:05
The amazing part of this process -- and of course, I mean,
61
161000
3000
这个过程最美妙的地方是 – 当然我很想
03:08
I would love to -- I only have 18 minutes,
62
164000
2000
多给大家时间 – 但我只有十八分钟，
03:10
I've already given you quite a substantial amount of my time, right?
63
166000
2000
我已经给了大家相当多的时间，对不对？
03:12
I'd love to go into, and get you to think about this process,
64
168000
4000
我想引导大家经历这个过程，思想这个过程，
03:16
and that's actually what we did.
65
172000
2000
因为那是我们实际上经过的过程。
03:18
And I also strongly encourage you,
66
174000
2000
我很想大家认真地想想，
03:20
and I'm sure we'll also have these discussions afterwards,
67
176000
2000
当然以后我们还要加以讨论，
03:22
to think about, how do we actually prioritize?
68
178000
2000
我们的缓急先后次序，实际上是怎样订出来的呢？
03:24
Of course, you have to ask yourself,
69
180000
2000
当然，你要问问自己，
03:26
why on Earth was such a list never done before?
70
182000
2000
为什么这个次序从来没有人订出来？
03:28
And one reason is that prioritization is incredibly uncomfortable.
71
184000
5000
原因之一是这个次序会使人感到极度不快，
03:33
Nobody wants to do this.
72
189000
2000
没有人想这样做。
03:35
Of course, every organization would love to be on the top of such a list.
73
191000
3000
很明显，每个组织都想成为清单上的优先项目，
03:38
But every organization would also hate to be not on the top of the list.
74
194000
3000
都不想排在清单的后面。
03:41
And since there are many more not-number-one spots on the list
75
197000
4000
正因为清单上的非首要项目，
03:45
than there is number ones, it makes perfect sense
76
201000
3000
远远比首要项目多，理所当然地
03:48
not to want to do such a list.
77
204000
2000
没有人想订定这张清单。
03:50
We've had the U.N. for almost 60 years,
78
206000
2000
联合国成立了差不多六十年，
03:52
yet we've never actually made a fundamental list
79
208000
3000
但我们从没有确实地订出一张基本的选单，
03:55
of all the big things that we can do in the world,
80
211000
2000
列出我们可以为世界做的所有重要事情，
03:57
and said, which of them should we do first?
81
213000
3000
哪些我们应该优先处理？
04:00
So it doesn't mean that we are not prioritizing --
82
216000
3000
这不是说我们没有决定先后次序 --
04:03
any decision is a prioritization, so of course we are still prioritizing,
83
219000
4000
任何决定都包含了先后次序， 所以我们仍然是决定了，
04:07
if only implicitly -- and that's unlikely to be as good
84
223000
3000
只是没有说出来 – 但这却很可能
04:10
as if we actually did the prioritization,
85
226000
2000
没有真正订出先后次序，
04:12
and went in and talked about it.
86
228000
2000
认认真真的说出来那么好。
04:14
So what I'm proposing is really to say that we have,
87
230000
2000
所以我现在要建议的，
04:16
for a very long time, had a situation when we've had a menu of choices.
88
232000
4000
是我们长久以来，已经有一张清单供我们选择。
04:20
There are many, many things we can do out there,
89
236000
2000
我们可以为地球做很多很多事情，
04:22
but we've not had the prices, nor the sizes.
90
238000
3000
but we've not had the prices, nor the sizes.
04:25
We have not had an idea.
91
241000
2000
没有作出决定的依据。
04:27
Imagine going into a restaurant and getting this big menu card,
92
243000
3000
设想我们走进一所餐厅，拿着一张大大的菜单，
04:30
but you have no idea what the price is.
93
246000
2000
却不知道价格。
04:32
You know, you have a pizza; you've no idea what the price is.
94
248000
2000
你想要一客薄饼，却不知道售价。
04:34
It could be at one dollar; it could be 1,000 dollars.
95
250000
2000
那可能是一块钱，也可能是一千块，
04:36
It could be a family-size pizza;
96
252000
2000
可能是一个家庭的分量，
04:38
it could be a very individual-size pizza, right?
97
254000
2000
也可能只够一个人吃。
04:40
We'd like to know these things.
98
256000
2000
我们需要知道这些事情，
04:42
And that is what the Copenhagen Consensus is really trying to do --
99
258000
2000
这就是“哥本哈根共识”想做的，
04:44
to try to put prices on these issues.
100
260000
3000
就是为全球性问题订出价格。
04:47
And so basically, this has been the Copenhagen Consensus' process.
101
263000
3000
简单来说，以下就是达至“哥本哈根共识”的过程。
04:50
We got 30 of the world's best economists, three in each area.
102
266000
4000
我们找来三十位世界最出色的经济学家，每一个范畴三位。
04:54
So we have three of world's top economists write about climate change.
103
270000
3000
这就是说，三位世界最佳经济学家，为我们就气候变化提供建议：
04:57
What can we do? What will be the cost
104
273000
3000
我们可以做什么？所需费用又是多少？
05:00
and what will be the benefit of that?
105
276000
1000
能带来什么效益？
05:01
Likewise in communicable diseases.
106
277000
2000
同样，在传染病的范畴上，
05:03
Three of the world's top experts saying, what can we do?
107
279000
3000
我们有世界顶尖的三位专家，告诉我们可以做什么，
05:06
What would be the price?
108
282000
1000
所需费用如何？
05:07
What should we do about it, and what will be the outcome?
109
283000
3000
我们应该怎让做？又有什么果效？
05:10
And so on.
110
286000
1000
如此类推。
05:11
Then we had some of the world's top economists,
111
287000
2000
我们又请来世界最出色的经济学家，
05:13
eight of the world's top economists, including three Nobel Laureates,
112
289000
4000
八位世界最佳经济学家， 包括三位诺贝尔奖得主，
05:17
meet in Copenhagen in May 2004.
113
293000
3000
在2004年5月云集哥本哈根。
05:20
We called them the "dream team."
114
296000
2000
我们叫他们做梦幻队，
05:22
The Cambridge University prefects decided to call them
115
298000
3000
剑桥大学的级长称他们为
05:25
the Real Madrid of economics.
116
301000
2000
经济学的皇家马德里队 --
05:27
That works very well in Europe, but it doesn't really work over here.
117
303000
2000
这名称在欧洲很合适，但在这里似乎就不很行得通。
05:29
And what they basically did was come out with a prioritized list.
118
305000
4000
他们做的基本上就是订出一张列明缓急次序的选单。
05:33
And then you ask, why economists?
119
309000
2000
你可能要问，为什么是经济学家？
05:35
And of course, I'm very happy you asked that question -- (Laughter) --
120
311000
2000
而我当然很高兴你提出这个问题，--（笑声）--
05:37
because that's a very good question.
121
313000
2000
因为那是一个十分好的问题。
05:39
The point is, of course, if you want to know about malaria,
122
315000
3000
重点是，如果你想认识疟疾，
05:42
you ask a malaria expert.
123
318000
2000
你会找个疟疾专家；
05:44
If you want to know about climate, you ask a climatologist.
124
320000
2000
如果你想认识气候，你会找个气候学家。
05:46
But if you want to know which of the two you should deal with first,
125
322000
3000
可是如果你想知道二者之间，何者应该优先处理，
05:49
you can't ask either of them, because that's not what they do.
126
325000
3000
你不能问他们任何一方，因为那不是他们的工作，
05:52
That is what economists do.
127
328000
2000
那是经济学家的工作，
05:54
They prioritize.
128
330000
1000
他们订定优先次序。
05:55
They make that in some ways disgusting task of saying, which one should we do first,
129
331000
5000
经济学家做的，就是那在某些方面被认为是厌恶性的工作，他们决定哪些项目应优先处理，
06:00
and which one should we do afterwards?
130
336000
2000
那些该稍后进行。
06:02
So this is the list, and this is the one I'd like to share with you.
131
338000
3000
这就是我想和大家分享的清单，
06:05
Of course, you can also see it on the website,
132
341000
2000
你当然也可以在我们的网站看到这份清单，
06:07
and we'll also talk about it more, I'm sure, as the day goes on.
133
343000
3000
而等一会我们也会再详细说说。
06:10
They basically came up with a list where they said
134
346000
2000
基本上他们完成了一份选单，
06:12
there were bad projects -- basically, projects
135
348000
3000
上面包括一些不良项目 – 简单来说，如果你投资一坏钱到这些项目，
06:15
where if you invest a dollar, you get less than a dollar back.
136
351000
3000
你的回报会比一坏钱少；
06:18
Then there's fair projects, good projects and very good projects.
137
354000
4000
也有表现一般的项目，良好项目和优秀项目。
06:22
And of course, it's the very good projects we should start doing.
138
358000
2000
我们应该首先开展的，当然是那些优秀项目。
06:24
I'm going to go from backwards
139
360000
2000
我会从清单的末尾开始，
06:26
so that we end up with the best projects.
140
362000
2000
把优秀项目留到最后。
06:28
These were the bad projects.
141
364000
2000
这些是不良项目。
06:30
As you might see the bottom of the list was climate change.
142
366000
4000
可以见到排在清单最末的是气候变化。
06:34
This offends a lot of people, and that's probably one of the things
143
370000
4000
这冒犯了很多人，那可能就是为什么有些人说
06:38
where people will say I shouldn't come back, either.
144
374000
2000
我不应该再来。
06:40
And I'd like to talk about that, because that's really curious.
145
376000
2000
这个我需要解释一下，因为这看来很奇怪。
06:42
Why is it it came up?
146
378000
2000
为什么会是这样呢？
06:44
And I'll actually also try to get back to this
147
380000
2000
这个我往后还要再谈一下，
06:46
because it's probably one of the things
148
382000
2000
因为这可能是我们的清单跟你的清单
06:48
that we'll disagree with on the list that you wrote down.
149
384000
2000
其中一个不同的地方。
06:50
The reason why they came up with saying that Kyoto --
150
386000
3000
为什么我们的专家认为执行京都协议，
06:53
or doing something more than Kyoto -- is a bad deal
151
389000
2000
或者做得比京都协议更多，并不是一个好主意？
06:55
is simply because it's very inefficient.
152
391000
2000
原因很简单， 因为这样做缺乏果效。
06:57
It's not saying that global warming is not happening.
153
393000
2000
这不是说全球暖化没有发生，
06:59
It's not saying that it's not a big problem.
154
395000
2000
也不是说问题并不严重。
07:01
But it's saying that what we can do about it
155
397000
2000
乃是说，我们可以为这个问题做的
07:03
is very little, at a very high cost.
156
399000
3000
并不多，而且所费不菲。
07:06
What they basically show us, the average of all macroeconomic models,
157
402000
4000
这些专家告诉我们，根据所有宏观经济模型平均计算，
07:10
is that Kyoto, if everyone agreed, would cost about 150 billion dollars a year.
158
406000
5000
如果各国都执行京都协议，每年要花费大概一千五百亿美元。
07:15
That's a substantial amount of money.
159
411000
2000
这笔庞大的数目，
07:17
That's two to three times the global development aid
160
413000
2000
大概是我们每年援助第三世界发展所费
07:19
that we give the Third World every year.
161
415000
2000
两至三倍，
07:21
Yet it would do very little good.
162
417000
2000
可是回报却很少。
07:23
All models show it will postpone warming for about six years in 2100.
163
419000
4000
所有模型都显示， 这只可以把暖化问题推迟大约六年至二一零零年，
07:27
So the guy in Bangladesh who gets a flood in 2100 can wait until 2106.
164
423000
4000
也就是说，本来於二一零零年在孟加拉发生的水灾， 可以延至二一零六年。
07:31
Which is a little good, but not very much good.
165
427000
2000
这是有一点好处，却不是很大的成效。
07:33
So the idea here really is to say, well, we've spent a lot of money doing a little good.
166
429000
5000
这个例子的意思是，我们用了很多钱，却只带来一点利益
07:38
And just to give you a sense of reference,
167
434000
2000
让我给你一些参考资料，
07:40
the U.N. actually estimate that for half that amount,
168
436000
2000
根据联合国的估计，我们只需一半的价钱，
07:42
for about 75 billion dollars a year,
169
438000
2000
即每年大概七百五十亿美元，
07:44
we could solve all major basic problems in the world.
170
440000
3000
便可以解决世界上所有重大基本问题。
07:47
We could give clean drinking water, sanitation, basic healthcare
171
443000
3000
我们可以为地球上每一个人， 提供清洁食水，卫生设施，
07:50
and education to every single human being on the planet.
172
446000
3000
基本医疗和教育。
07:53
So we have to ask ourselves, do we want to spend twice the amount
173
449000
4000
所以我们要问自己，是否要付出双倍代价，
07:57
on doing very little good?
174
453000
1000
来换取些少好处，
07:58
Or half the amount on doing an amazing amount of good?
175
454000
3000
还是只用一半的价钱，就取得意想不到那么多的成效？
08:01
And that is really why it becomes a bad project.
176
457000
3000
这就是为什么气候变化是一个不良项目。
08:04
It's not to say that if we had all the money in the world, we wouldn't want to do it.
177
460000
3000
这不是说，如果我们拥有世界上所有的钱，我们不会进行这个项目，
08:07
But it's to say, when we don't, it's just simply not our first priority.
178
463000
4000
这乃是说，当我们并不拥有所有的钱，就不应优先处理这个问题。
08:11
The fair projects -- notice I'm not going to comment on all these --
179
467000
3000
那些果效一般的项目 –我且不在此逐项评论 --
08:14
but communicable diseases, scale of basic health services -- just made it,
180
470000
4000
好像传染病，基本卫生服务 – 尚可以进行。
08:18
simply because, yes, scale of basic health services is a great thing.
181
474000
3000
原因很简单，基本卫生服务的规模庞大，
08:21
It would do a lot of good, but it's also very, very costly.
182
477000
3000
可以带来很大益处，不过也非常昂贵。
08:24
Again, what it tells us is suddenly
183
480000
2000
如上所言，这一下子告诉我们，
08:26
we start thinking about both sides of the equation.
184
482000
2000
要开始考虑问题的两面。
08:28
If you look at the good projects, a lot of sanitation and water projects came in.
185
484000
4000
接着下来我们可以看看果效良好的项目，包括许多卫生和食水项目。
08:32
Again, sanitation and water is incredibly important,
186
488000
2000
卫生和食水项目极为重要，
08:34
but it also costs a lot of infrastructure.
187
490000
3000
但需要很多基本设施。
08:37
So I'd like to show you the top four priorities
188
493000
2000
最后让我们一起看看为首的四项优先项目，
08:39
which should be at least the first ones that we deal with
189
495000
3000
它们应该是我们谈及如何处理世界性问题时，
08:42
when we talk about how we should deal with the problems in the world.
190
498000
3000
最优先要处理的。
08:45
The fourth best problem is malaria -- dealing with malaria.
191
501000
4000
第四个要优先处理的问题是疟疾 – 即消除疟疾的威胁。
08:49
The incidence of malaria is about a couple of [million] people get infected every year.
192
505000
4000
每年有几百万人感染疟疾，
08:53
It might even cost up towards a percentage point of GDP
193
509000
4000
对受影响国家来说，每年所需的费用
08:57
every year for affected nations.
194
513000
2000
可能多至国民生产总值百分之一。
08:59
If we invested about 13 billion dollars over the next four years,
195
515000
4000
如果我们投放大概一百三十亿美元，在未来四年用来控制疟疾，
09:03
we could bring that incidence down to half.
196
519000
2000
就可以把感染的人数减半，
09:05
We could avoid about 500,000 people dying,
197
521000
3000
防止大概五十万人死掉。
09:08
but perhaps more importantly, we could avoid about a [million] people
198
524000
3000
更重要的，是每年我们可以防止大概十亿人
09:11
getting infected every year.
199
527000
1000
感染到这个病。
09:12
We would significantly increase their ability
200
528000
2000
我们可以显著地提高
09:14
to deal with many of the other problems that they have to deal with --
201
530000
3000
他们应付其他很多问题的能力。
09:17
of course, in the long run, also to deal with global warming.
202
533000
3000
当然，长远来说，这也会提高他们应付全球暖化的能力。
09:21
This third best one was free trade.
203
537000
3000
第三项要优先处理的问题是自由贸易。
09:24
Basically, the model showed that if we could get free trade,
204
540000
3000
基本上，我们的经济模型告诉我们，如果我们有自由贸易，
09:27
and especially cut subsidies in the U.S. and Europe,
205
543000
3000
尤其如果我们在美国和欧洲取消贸易补贴，
09:30
we could basically enliven the global economy
206
546000
4000
我们可以从根本活化环球经济，
09:34
to an astounding number of about 2,400 billion dollars a year,
207
550000
4000
达至令人惊讶的二万四千亿美元一年，
09:38
half of which would accrue to the Third World.
208
554000
2000
而其中一半会来自第三世界。
09:40
Again, the point is to say that we could actually pull
209
556000
3000
那就是说，我们可以极速地在两至三年间，
09:43
two to three hundred million people out of poverty,
210
559000
3000
把两至三亿人
09:46
very radically fast, in about two to five years.
211
562000
3000
带离贫困。
09:49
That would be the third best thing we could do.
212
565000
2000
那是第三件我们最应做的事。
09:51
The second best thing would be to focus on malnutrition.
213
567000
4000
第二件我们最应做的事，是改善营养不良。
09:55
Not just malnutrition in general, but there's a very cheap way
214
571000
3000
我们不是指一般的营养不良，而是指改善营养不良
09:58
of dealing with malnutrition, namely, the lack of micronutrients.
215
574000
3000
一个非常便宜的方法，就是解决微量营养缺乏的问题。
10:01
Basically, about half of the world's population is lacking in
216
577000
3000
基本上全球有一半人口缺乏
10:04
iron, zinc, iodine and vitamin A.
217
580000
2000
铁，锌，碘和维生素A。
10:06
If we invest about 12 billion dollars,
218
582000
2000
要是我们投资一百二十亿美元，
10:08
we could make a severe inroad into that problem.
219
584000
3000
就可以为这个问题带来重大的帮助，
10:11
That would be the second best investment that we could do.
220
587000
3000
那会是我们能做的第二最佳投资。
10:14
And the very best project would be to focus on HIV/AIDS.
221
590000
5000
至于我们成效最佳的项目，就是打击爱滋。
10:19
Basically, if we invest 27 billion dollars over the next eight years,
222
595000
4000
基本上，要是我们在未来八年，投资两百七十亿美元，
10:23
we could avoid 28 new million cases of HIV/AIDS.
223
599000
4000
便可以防止两千八百万个爱滋新症。
10:27
Again, what this does and what it focuses on is saying
224
603000
4000
同样地，我们必须考虑解决问题的方法和效益。
10:31
there are two very different ways that we can deal with HIV/AIDS.
225
607000
3000
对付爱滋我们有两种截然不同的方法，
10:34
One is treatment; the other one is prevention.
226
610000
3000
一是治疗，一是预防。
10:37
And again, in an ideal world, we would do both.
227
613000
3000
如上所言，在一个理想的世界，我们两者都要做。
10:40
But in a world where we don't do either, or don't do it very well,
228
616000
3000
但如果我们不能两者兼顾，或者不能两者都做得很好，
10:43
we have to at least ask ourselves where should we invest first.
229
619000
4000
就要先问自己，我们应该首先投资在哪里？
10:47
And treatment is much, much more expensive than prevention.
230
623000
3000
因为治疗比预防昂贵得多，
10:50
So basically, what this focuses on is saying, we can do a lot more
231
626000
4000
所以基本上，如果我们投资在预防爱滋上，
10:54
by investing in prevention.
232
630000
2000
所得的成效就会大很多。
10:56
Basically for the amount of money that we spend,
233
632000
2000
基本上，我们用一笔钱预防爱滋，
10:58
we can do X amount of good in treatment,
234
634000
3000
相比把同样的数目用来治疗爱滋，
11:01
and 10 times as much good in prevention.
235
637000
3000
可以取得十倍的成效。
11:04
So again, what we focus on is prevention rather than treatment,
236
640000
3000
所以，我们首要注重预防，
11:07
at first rate.
237
643000
1000
而不是治疗。
11:08
What this really does is that it makes us think about our priorities.
238
644000
4000
这告诉我们，考虑缓急先后至为重要。
11:12
I'd like to have you look at your priority list and say,
239
648000
4000
请你看看你的清单，
11:16
did you get it right?
240
652000
2000
问问自己，优先次序订得对不对？
11:18
Or did you get close to what we came up with here?
241
654000
2000
和我们订定的是否相似？
11:20
Well, of course, one of the things is climate change again.
242
656000
4000
当然，我们要面对的其中一个问题是气候变化。
11:24
I find a lot of people find it very, very unlikely that we should do that.
243
660000
3000
我知道很多人都不认同我们的看法。
11:27
We should also do climate change,
244
663000
2000
他们以为，单凭这个问题的规模，
11:29
if for no other reason, simply because it's such a big problem.
245
665000
3000
我们就应该处理气候变化。
11:32
But of course, we don't do all problems.
246
668000
3000
但想深一层，我们不会解决所有的问题。
11:35
There are many problems out there in the world.
247
671000
2000
这个世界有很多问题，
11:37
And what I want to make sure of is, if we actually focus on problems,
248
673000
4000
我们必须针对性地对待它们，
11:41
that we focus on the right ones.
249
677000
2000
把焦点放在正确的问题上，
11:43
The ones where we can do a lot of good rather than a little good.
250
679000
3000
就是那些可以取得重大果效，而非只带来微薄回报的问题。¼
11:46
And I think, actually -- Thomas Schelling,
251
682000
3000
我们梦幻队的成员
11:49
one of the participants in the dream team, he put it very, very well.
252
685000
4000
Thomas Schelling说得非常好：
11:53
One of things that people forget, is that in 100 years,
253
689000
3000
他说，人们往往忘记一百年后，
11:56
when we're talking about most of the climate change impacts will be,
254
692000
3000
当我们讨论大部分气候变化影响的时候，
11:59
people will be much, much richer.
255
695000
2000
人们要比现在富有得多。
12:01
Even the most pessimistic impact scenarios of the U.N.
256
697000
4000
即使是联合国最悲观的预测，
12:05
estimate that the average person in the developing world in 2100
257
701000
3000
在二一零零年，发展中国家的人
12:08
will be about as rich as we are today.
258
704000
2000
最低限度也和我们现在一样富有。
12:10
Much more likely, they will be two to four times richer than we are.
259
706000
4000
更可能的是，他们要比我们现在富有两倍至四倍。
12:14
And of course, we'll be even richer than that.
260
710000
2000
当然，到时我们也会比现在更富有。
12:16
But the point is to say, when we talk about saving people,
261
712000
4000
我的意思是，当我们说要在二一零零年，
12:20
or helping people in Bangladesh in 2100,
262
716000
3000
救助或者帮助孟加拉时，
12:23
we're not talking about a poor Bangladeshi.
263
719000
2000
我们面对的不是一个穷困的孟加拉人，
12:25
We're actually talking about a fairly rich Dutch guy.
264
721000
2000
而是一个挺富庶的荷兰人。
12:27
And so the real point, of course, is to say,
265
723000
2000
归根到底，最重要的是我们是否想花一大笔钱，
12:29
do we want to spend a lot of money helping a little,
266
725000
4000
为一个一百年以后相当富有的荷兰人，
12:33
100 years from now, a fairly rich Dutch guy?
267
729000
2000
带来一点儿的帮助，
12:35
Or do we want to help real poor people, right now, in Bangladesh,
268
731000
5000
还是以低廉的代价，帮助那些现时身在孟加拉，
12:40
who really need the help, and whom we can help very, very cheaply?
269
736000
3000
真正需要帮助的穷人？
12:43
Or as Schelling put it, imagine if you were a rich -- as you will be --
270
739000
5000
又或者如Schelling所说，设想到了二一零零年，你是一个有钱的
12:48
a rich Chinese, a rich Bolivian, a rich Congolese, in 2100,
271
744000
5000
中国人，玻利维亚人，或者是刚果人，
12:53
thinking back on 2005, and saying, "How odd that they cared so much
272
749000
6000
当你回想二零零五年，你会说，“为什么他们那么着紧，
12:59
about helping me a little bit through climate change,
273
755000
4000
要在应付气候变化上帮我一点儿，
13:03
and cared so fairly little about helping my grandfather
274
759000
4000
却并不在意帮助
13:07
and my great grandfather, whom they could have helped so much more,
275
763000
3000
我那亟需援手的祖父和曾祖父，
13:10
and who needed the help so much more?"
276
766000
3000
虽然他们可以做的是那么多？
13:13
So I think that really does tell us why it is
277
769000
3000
我让为这正正说明了
13:16
we need to get our priorities straight.
278
772000
2000
为什么正确地订明先后次序是那么重要，
13:18
Even if it doesn't accord to the typical way we see this problem.
279
774000
3000
虽然这跟我们一般看这个问题的方法不同。
13:21
Of course, that's mainly because climate change has good pictures.
280
777000
5000
当然，主要原因是气候变化有很多动人的影像，
13:26
We have, you know, "The Day After Tomorrow" -- it looks great, right?
281
782000
3000
我们有“明日之后”那样的电影 -- 那些影像真棒，对不对？
13:29
It's a good film in the sense that
282
785000
3000
那是一出好电影，
13:32
I certainly want to see it, right, but don't expect Emmerich
283
788000
3000
十分有吸引力。不过，不要期待Emmerich
13:35
to cast Brad Pitt in his next movie
284
791000
3000
会找Brad Pitt在他的下一部戏，
13:38
digging latrines in Tanzania or something. (Laughter)
285
794000
2000
到坦尼亚挖厕所或是什么的，（笑声）
13:40
It just doesn't make for as much of a movie.
286
796000
2000
因为那没有什么看头。
13:42
So in many ways, I think of the Copenhagen Consensus
287
798000
2000
所以从很多方面看来，“哥本哈根共识”
13:44
and the whole discussion of priorities
288
800000
2000
和整个有关先后次序的讨论，
13:46
as a defense for boring problems.
289
802000
3000
是对沉闷问题的一场辩护，
13:49
To make sure that we realize it's not about making us feel good.
290
805000
4000
叫我们认识到解决世界问题，不是要做令自己感觉良好的事，
13:53
It's not about making things that have the most media attention,
291
809000
5000
不是要做最能吸引传媒的事，
13:58
but it's about making places where we can actually do the most good.
292
814000
3000
而是做最能带来成效的事。
14:01
The other objections, I think, that are important to say,
293
817000
3000
我也必须提及另一种反对的声音，
14:04
is that I'm somehow -- or we are somehow -- positing a false choice.
294
820000
4000
认为我 -- 或者我们 — 提出的抉择并无需要。
14:08
Of course, we should do all things,
295
824000
2000
在一个完美的世界，我们当然应该解决所有问题，
14:10
in an ideal world -- I would certainly agree.
296
826000
2000
我绝对同意。
14:12
I think we should do all things, but we don't.
297
828000
2000
我们应该做所有的事情，但事实上却不能。
14:14
In 1970, the developed world decided we were going to spend
298
830000
4000
在七十年代，发达国家估计我们需要花在发展中国家的钱，
14:18
twice as much as we did, right now, than in 1970, on the developing world.
299
834000
6000
是我们现在实质花费在这些国家的两倍。
14:24
Since then our aid has halved.
300
840000
2000
自七十年代以来， 我们援助这些国家的金额减了一半。
14:26
So it doesn't look like we're actually on the path
301
842000
3000
由此看来，我们现在走的方向，
14:29
of suddenly solving all big problems.
302
845000
2000
不会一下子解决所有重大问题。
14:31
Likewise, people are also saying, but what about the Iraq war?
303
847000
3000
同样，有些人会问，那美伊战争又如何？
14:34
You know, we spend 100 billion dollars --
304
850000
2000
我们为这战争已经花掉了一千亿美元，
14:36
why don't we spend that on doing good in the world?
305
852000
2000
为什么不用这笔钱为世界做点好事？®
14:38
I'm all for that.
306
854000
1000
这个我完全赞成，
14:39
If any one of you guys can talk Bush into doing that, that's fine.
307
855000
2000
如果你们有人可以说服布殊那样做， 那就最好不过。
14:41
But the point, of course, is still to say,
308
857000
2000
不过，我的论点还是一样：
14:43
if you get another 100 billion dollars,
309
859000
2000
如果我们有额外一千亿美元，
14:45
we still want to spend that in the best possible way, don't we?
310
861000
3000
我们仍想把这笔钱花在最佳用途上，对不对？
14:48
So the real issue here is to get ourselves back
311
864000
2000
所以最重要的问题，是我们要回去细细思想，
14:50
and think about what are the right priorities.
312
866000
2000
正确订定缓急次序。
14:52
I should just mention briefly, is this really the right list that we got out?
313
868000
4000
还有一点我要提一提，就是我们这张清单定得是否正确？
14:56
You know, when you ask the world's best economists,
314
872000
3000
当我们要找世界上最出色的经济专家，
14:59
you inevitably end up asking old, white American men.
315
875000
3000
无何避免地找来的都是上了年纪的美国白人，
15:02
And they're not necessarily, you know,
316
878000
2000
然而他们却不一定能提供
15:04
great ways of looking at the entire world.
317
880000
4000
看整个世界的最好方法。
15:08
So we actually invited 80 young people from all over the world
318
884000
2000
所以我们又从世界各地请来八十个年青人，
15:10
to come and solve the same problem.
319
886000
2000
请他们解决同样的问题。
15:12
The only two requirements were that they were studying at the university,
320
888000
4000
他们只需符合两个条件：是大学生
15:16
and they spoke English.
321
892000
2000
和懂英语。
15:18
The majority of them were, first, from developing countries.
322
894000
3000
他们大部分来自发展中国家。
15:21
They had all the same material but they could go vastly
323
897000
2000
我们为他们提供同样的资料，但由得他们自由讨论，不受限制。
15:23
outside the scope of discussion, and they certainly did,
324
899000
3000
而他们也不时偏离原定的范围，
15:26
to come up with their own lists.
325
902000
2000
以定出他们自己的清单。
15:28
And the surprising thing was that the list was very similar --
326
904000
2000
令人惊奇的是，他们订出来的清单都很相似，
15:30
with malnutrition and diseases at the top
327
906000
3000
为首的总是营养不良和疾病，
15:33
and climate change at the bottom.
328
909000
2000
而气候变化总是在清单的最后。
15:35
We've done this many other times.
329
911000
1000
这些讨论我们进行了很多次，
15:36
There's been many other seminars and university students, and different things.
330
912000
3000
还有很多大学生之间的其他研讨会等等，
15:39
They all come out with very much the same list.
331
915000
3000
他们完成的清单都差不多。
15:42
And that gives me great hope, really, in saying that I do believe
332
918000
4000
这个发现叫我充满希望，我深信这是订定
15:46
that there is a path ahead to get us to start thinking about priorities,
333
922000
5000
缓急先后次序的方法。
15:51
and saying, what is the important thing in the world?
334
927000
2000
什么是世界上最重要的事情？
15:53
Of course, in an ideal world, again we'd love to do everything.
335
929000
3000
我重申，在一个完美的世界，我们会解决所有问题。
15:56
But if we don't do it, then we can start thinking about where should we start?
336
932000
4000
但既然在现实世界我们不会那样做，便要开始想想，该从哪儿着手？
16:00
I see the Copenhagen Consensus as a process.
337
936000
2000
我觉得“哥本哈根共识”是一个过程。
16:02
We did it in 2004,
338
938000
2000
我们在二零零四年举办过一次，
16:04
and we hope to assemble many more people,
339
940000
1000
我们希望可以在二零零八和二零一二，
16:05
getting much better information for 2008, 2012.
340
941000
4000
聚集更多人，取得更好的资讯，
16:09
Map out the right path for the world --
341
945000
2000
以期为世界订出正确的道路，
16:11
but also to start thinking about political triage.
342
947000
3000
我们也要开始在政策上把问题分类，
16:14
To start thinking about saying, "Let's do
343
950000
2000
要告诉人们：让我们不要做那些
16:16
not the things where we can do very little at a very high cost,
344
952000
3000
代价高昂而果效不彰的事情，
16:19
not the things that we don't know how to do,
345
955000
2000
也不要做那些我们不懂得怎样做的事情；
16:21
but let's do the great things where we can do an enormous
346
957000
3000
让我们现在就做那些我们能做，
16:24
amount of good, at very low cost, right now."
347
960000
4000
作价便宜，而又带来庞大效益的事情，
16:28
At the end of the day, you can disagree
348
964000
2000
到最后，你可以不同意
16:30
with the discussion of how we actually prioritize these,
349
966000
2000
我们订定缓急先后的方法，
16:32
but we have to be honest and frank about saying,
350
968000
3000
不过我们一定要老老实实地想，
16:35
if there's some things we do, there are other things we don't do.
351
971000
2000
如果我们能做某些事情，就一定有其他的事情我们不会做;
16:38
If we worry too much about some things,
352
974000
2000
如果我们为一些事情过分操心，
16:40
we end by not worrying about other things.
353
976000
2000
就会忽略了其他的事。
16:42
So I hope this will help us make better priorities,
354
978000
2000
我希望这对我们订定缓急先后有点帮助，
16:44
and think about how we better work for the world.
355
980000
2000
教我们可以为这个世界做得更好。
16:46
Thank you.
356
982000
1000
谢谢。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bjorn Lomborg - Global prioritizerDanish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg heads the Copenhagen Consensus, which has prioritized the world's greatest problems -- global warming, world poverty, disease -- based on how effective our solutions might be. It's a thought-provoking, even provocative list.
Why you should listen
Bjorn Lomborg isn't afraid to voice an unpopular opinion. In 2007, he was named one of the 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine after the publication of his controversial book The Skeptical Environmentalist, which challenged widely held beliefs that the environment is getting worse. This year, he was named on of the "50 people who cold save the planet" by the Guardian newspaper. In 2007 he published Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming, further analyzes what today's science tells us about global warming and its risks. That same year, his next book Solutions for the World's Biggest Problems was released, which provided a summary of the greatest challenges facing humanity.
In 2004, he convened the Copenhagen Consensus, which tries to prioritize the world's greatest challenges based on the impact we can make, a sort of bang-for-the-buck breakdown for attacking problems such as global warming, world poverty and disease.
It begins from the premise that we can't solve every problem in the world, and asks: Which ones should we fix first? The Copenhagen Consensus 2004 tapped the expertise of world-leading economists, as well as a diverse forum of young participants; collectively, they determined that control of HIV/AIDS was the best investment -- and mitigating global warming was the worst. Lomborg summarized these findings in How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place. In spring of 2008, Copenhagen Consensus convened again, assembling over 55 international economists, including 4 Nobel laureates, to assess, prioritize and brainstorm solutions for the major global challenges of today, including conflicts, malnutrition, health, education and terrorism. In 2013, he published How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the Wolrd a Better Place.
Bjorn Lomborg | Speaker | TED.com