TED2005
Bjorn Lomborg: Global priorities bigger than climate change
Bjorn Lomborg establece prioridades globais
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con 50 mil millóns de dólares para gastar, con que rematarías primeiro, ¿co SIDA ou co quecemento global? O politólogo danés Bjorn Lomborg aparece con respostas sorprendentes.
Bjorn Lomborg - Global prioritizer
Danish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg heads the Copenhagen Consensus, which has prioritized the world's greatest problems -- global warming, world poverty, disease -- based on how effective our solutions might be. It's a thought-provoking, even provocative list. Full bio
Danish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg heads the Copenhagen Consensus, which has prioritized the world's greatest problems -- global warming, world poverty, disease -- based on how effective our solutions might be. It's a thought-provoking, even provocative list. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
What I'd like to talk about is really the biggest problems in the world.
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Do que me gustaría falar é dos problemas máis grandes do mundo.
00:28
I'm not going to talk about "The Skeptical Environmentalist" --
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Non vou falar de "O ecoloxista escéptico" --
00:30
probably that's also a good choice.
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probablemente iso tamén é unha boa opción.
00:32
(Laughter)
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(Riso)
00:33
But I am going talk about: what are the big problems in the world?
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Senón que vou falar de ¿cales son os grandes problemas do mundo?
00:36
And I must say, before I go on, I should ask every one of you
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E debo dicir, antes de continuar, pediríavos a cada un de vos
00:39
to try and get out pen and paper
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que collades lápiz e papel
00:41
because I'm actually going to ask you to help me to look at how we do that.
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porque vouvos pedir que me axudedes a ver como o facemos.
00:44
So get out your pen and paper.
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Así que collede lápiz e papel.
00:46
Bottom line is, there is a lot of problems out there in the world.
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A fin de contas, hai un montón de problemas no mundo de aí fora.
00:48
I'm just going to list some of them.
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Eu vou listar só algúns.
00:50
There are 800 million people starving.
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800 millóns de persoas pasan fame.
00:52
There's a billion people without clean drinking water.
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Mil millóns de persoas non teñen acceso a auga potable.
00:54
Two billion people without sanitation.
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Dous mil millóns sen saneamento.
00:56
There are several million people dying of HIV and AIDS.
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Varios millóns de persoas morren de VIH e SIDA.
00:59
The lists go on and on.
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As listas continúan.
01:01
There's two billions of people who will be severely affected by climate change -- so on.
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Dous mil millóns de persoas que se verán seriamente afectados pola mudanza climática -- e sigue.
01:06
There are many, many problems out there.
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Temos moitos, moitos problemas aí afora.
01:08
In an ideal world, we would solve them all, but we don't.
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Nun mundo ideal, os resolveríamos todos, pero non o facemos.
01:12
We don't actually solve all problems.
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A verdade é que non resolvemos todos os problemas.
01:14
And if we do not, the question I think we need to ask ourselves --
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E se non o facemos, a pregunta que penso que nos deberíamos facer --
01:18
and that's why it's on the economy session -- is to say,
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e ese é o motivo polo que estamos na sesión de economía -- é dicir,
01:21
if we don't do all things, we really have to start asking ourselves,
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se non facemos todo, realmente temos que comezar a nos preguntar,
01:24
which ones should we solve first?
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que problemas deberíamos resolver primeiro?
01:26
And that's the question I'd like to ask you.
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Esa é a pregunta que me gustaría preguntarvos.
01:28
If we had say, 50 billion dollars over the next four years to spend
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Se tivesemos digamos, 50 mil millóns de dolares para gastar nos próximos catro anos
01:33
to do good in this world, where should we spend it?
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para mellorar este mundo, ¿en que os deberíamos gastar?
01:36
We identified 10 of the biggest challenges in the world,
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Identificamos 10 dos retos máis grandes do mundo.
01:39
and I will just briefly read them:
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e simplemente os lerei.
01:41
climate change, communicable diseases, conflicts, education,
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Mudanza climática, enfermedades contaxiosas, conflictos, educación,
01:43
financial instability, governance and corruption,
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inestabilidade financeira, gobernanza e corrupción,
01:45
malnutrition and hunger, population migration,
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malnutrición e fame, movementos migratorios,
01:48
sanitation and water, and subsidies and trade barriers.
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saneamento e auga, e subsidios e barreiras ao comercio.
01:51
We believe that these in many ways
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Pensamos que estes, de moitas formas,
01:53
encompass the biggest problems in the world.
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abarcan os maiores problemas do mundo.
01:55
The obvious question would be to ask,
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A cuestión obvia sería preguntármonos,
01:57
what do you think are the biggest things?
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cales pensas que son os maiores?
01:59
Where should we start on solving these problems?
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Por onde deberíamos comezar a resolver estes problemas?
02:02
But that's a wrong problem to ask.
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Pero iso é preguntarse sobre un problema erróneo
02:04
That was actually the problem that was asked in Davos in January.
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En realidade, ese foi o porblema do que se falou en Davos en Xaneiro.
02:07
But of course, there's a problem in asking people to focus on problems.
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Pero naturalmetne, hai un problema se lle pides á xente que se centre nos problemas.
02:10
Because we can't solve problems.
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Porque non podemos solucionar problemas.
02:13
Surely the biggest problem we have in the world is that we all die.
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Seguramente que o maior dos problemas que temos no mundo é que todos morremos.
02:16
But we don't have a technology to solve that, right?
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Pero non temos a tecnoloxía para resolver iso, temos?
02:18
So the point is not to prioritize problems,
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Así que a cuestión non é priorizar os problemas,
02:21
but the point is to prioritize solutions to problems.
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senon priorizar as solucións aos problemas.
02:25
And that would be -- of course that gets a little more complicated.
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E xa estaría -- naturalmente que se fai un pouco máis complicado.
02:28
To climate change that would be like Kyoto.
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Para a mudanza climática, sería algo como Kyoto.
02:30
To communicable diseases, it might be health clinics or mosquito nets.
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Para enfermidades contaxiosas, poderían ser clínicas ou redes para os mosquitos.
02:33
To conflicts, it would be U.N.'s peacekeeping forces, and so on.
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Para os conflictos, serían as forzas de paz da ONU, e así poderíamos continuar.
02:36
The point that I would like to ask you to try to do,
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O que me gustaría pedirvos que tentásedes facer,
02:41
is just in 30 seconds -- and I know this is in a sense
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e que en 30 segundos -- e sei que dalgunha maneira
02:44
an impossible task -- write down what you think
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é algo imposible -- escribades o que pensades
02:46
is probably some of the top priorities.
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que son as máximas prioridades.
02:48
And also -- and that's, of course, where economics gets evil --
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E tamén -- en aquí é, naturalmente, onde a economía se volve cativa --
02:51
to put down what are the things we should not do, first.
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anotade o que non deberíamos facer en primeiro lugar.
02:54
What should be at the bottom of the list?
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Qué debería estar ó final da lista?
02:56
Please, just take 30 seconds, perhaps talk to your neighbor,
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Por favor, tomade simplemente 30 segundos, quizáis falade coa xente aredor,
02:59
and just figure out what should be the top priorities
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e simplemente imaxinade cales deberían ser as principais prioridades
03:01
and the bottom priorities of the solutions that we have
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e as menos prioritarias das solucións que temos
03:03
to the world's biggest issues.
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para os maiores problemas do mundo.
03:05
The amazing part of this process -- and of course, I mean,
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O sorprendente deste proceso -- por suposto, quero dicir,
03:08
I would love to -- I only have 18 minutes,
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me encantaría -- só teño 18 minutos
03:10
I've already given you quite a substantial amount of my time, right?
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Xa vos din unha importante cantidade do meu tempo, non?
03:12
I'd love to go into, and get you to think about this process,
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Me gustaría profundizar, e facervos pensar acerca deste proceso,
03:16
and that's actually what we did.
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e iso é o que en realidade fixemos.
03:18
And I also strongly encourage you,
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E tamén os recomendo enormemente,
03:20
and I'm sure we'll also have these discussions afterwards,
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e estou seguro de que tamén teremos estas discusións despois,
03:22
to think about, how do we actually prioritize?
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para pensar, como é que priorizamos realmente?
03:24
Of course, you have to ask yourself,
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Dende logo, hai que se preguntar a un mesmo,
03:26
why on Earth was such a list never done before?
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por que nunca se ten feito unha lista como esta antes?
03:28
And one reason is that prioritization is incredibly uncomfortable.
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E unha razón é que a priorización é incríblemente incómoda.
03:33
Nobody wants to do this.
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Ninguén o quere facer.
03:35
Of course, every organization would love to be on the top of such a list.
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Por suposto, todas as organizacións quererían estar no máis alto dunha lista como esa.
03:38
But every organization would also hate to be not on the top of the list.
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Pero tamén todas as organizacíons detestarían non estar no máis alto.
03:41
And since there are many more not-number-one spots on the list
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E xa que hai moitos máis "non números ún"
03:45
than there is number ones, it makes perfect sense
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que números un, é lóxico
03:48
not to want to do such a list.
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non querer unha lista como esta.
03:50
We've had the U.N. for almost 60 years,
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Hai 60 anos que existe a ONU,
03:52
yet we've never actually made a fundamental list
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e todavía non se ten feito unha lista básica
03:55
of all the big things that we can do in the world,
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das grandes cousas que podemos facer no mundo,
03:57
and said, which of them should we do first?
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e dito, cales deberíamos facer primeiro?
04:00
So it doesn't mean that we are not prioritizing --
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Isto non significa que non esteamos a priorirzar --
04:03
any decision is a prioritization, so of course we are still prioritizing,
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cada decisión é unha priorización, así que a pesar de todo estamos a priorizar
04:07
if only implicitly -- and that's unlikely to be as good
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aínda que só sexa implícitamente -- e iso non é probable que sexa tan bo
04:10
as if we actually did the prioritization,
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como se realmente fixeramos a priorización,
04:12
and went in and talked about it.
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e fosemos e falasemos diso.
04:14
So what I'm proposing is really to say that we have,
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Así que o que estou a propoñer é realmente dicir que tivemos,
04:16
for a very long time, had a situation when we've had a menu of choices.
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por un periodo moi largo de tempo, unha situación na que existían múltiples opcións.
04:20
There are many, many things we can do out there,
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Hai moitas, moitas cousas que podemos facer aí fora,
04:22
but we've not had the prices, nor the sizes.
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pero non tivemos os prezos, nin os tamaños.
04:25
We have not had an idea.
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Non tivemos unha idea.
04:27
Imagine going into a restaurant and getting this big menu card,
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Imaxina que entras nun restaurante e tes unha carta enorme,
04:30
but you have no idea what the price is.
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pero non sabes cales son os prezos.
04:32
You know, you have a pizza; you've no idea what the price is.
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Sabes que tes pizza, pero non sabes canto custa.
04:34
It could be at one dollar; it could be 1,000 dollars.
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Podería ser un dolar, poderían ser 1.000 dólares.
04:36
It could be a family-size pizza;
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Podería ser unha pizza familiar.
04:38
it could be a very individual-size pizza, right?
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Podería ser unha pizza individual, non?
04:40
We'd like to know these things.
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Quereríamos saber estas cousas.
04:42
And that is what the Copenhagen Consensus is really trying to do --
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E iso é o que está a tratar de facer o Consenso de Copenhaguen --
04:44
to try to put prices on these issues.
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trata de poñer os prezos destes temas.
04:47
And so basically, this has been the Copenhagen Consensus' process.
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E así, basicamente, este foi o proceso do Consenso de Copenhaguen.
04:50
We got 30 of the world's best economists, three in each area.
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Xuntamos 30 dos mellores economistas do mundo, tres de cada área.
04:54
So we have three of world's top economists write about climate change.
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De modo que tivesemos tres dos mellores economistas do planeta escribindo acerca de mudanza climática.
04:57
What can we do? What will be the cost
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Qué podemos facer? Cal será o seu custo?
05:00
and what will be the benefit of that?
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E cal o beneficio de facelo?
05:01
Likewise in communicable diseases.
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O mesmo con enfermidades contaxiosas.
05:03
Three of the world's top experts saying, what can we do?
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Tres dos mellores expertos dicindo, que podemos facer?
05:06
What would be the price?
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Cal será o prezo?
05:07
What should we do about it, and what will be the outcome?
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Que deberíamos facer acerca diso, e cal sería o resultado?
05:10
And so on.
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E así en diante.
05:11
Then we had some of the world's top economists,
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Entón collemos a algúns dos mellores economistas mundiais,
05:13
eight of the world's top economists, including three Nobel Laureates,
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oito dos mellores economistas do mundo, incluíndo tres Premios Nóbel,
05:17
meet in Copenhagen in May 2004.
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xuntáronse en Copenhaguen en Maio de 2004.
05:20
We called them the "dream team."
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Os chamamos o "dream team".
05:22
The Cambridge University prefects decided to call them
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Os prefectos da Universidad de Cambridge decidiron chamalos
05:25
the Real Madrid of economics.
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o Real Madrid da economía.
05:27
That works very well in Europe, but it doesn't really work over here.
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Eso funciona moi ben en Europa, pero aquí non tanto.
05:29
And what they basically did was come out with a prioritized list.
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E, básicamente o que fixeron, foi acadar unha lista priorizada.
05:33
And then you ask, why economists?
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E entón vos preguntaredes, por que economistas?
05:35
And of course, I'm very happy you asked that question -- (Laughter) --
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E naturalmente, estou moi contento de que me fixerades esa pregunta -- (risas) --
05:37
because that's a very good question.
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porque é unha pregunta moi boa.
05:39
The point is, of course, if you want to know about malaria,
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O tema é que, obviamente, se queres saber de malaria,
05:42
you ask a malaria expert.
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preguntas a un experto sobre a malaria.
05:44
If you want to know about climate, you ask a climatologist.
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Se queres saber sobre o clima, preguntas a un climatólogo.
05:46
But if you want to know which of the two you should deal with first,
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Pero se queres saber cal dos dous debes resolver primeiro,
05:49
you can't ask either of them, because that's not what they do.
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non podes preguntarlle a ningún dos dous, porque iso no é o que fan.
05:52
That is what economists do.
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Iso é o que fan os economistas.
05:54
They prioritize.
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Priorizan.
05:55
They make that in some ways disgusting task of saying, which one should we do first,
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Fan esa tarea algo desagradable de dicir, que debemos facer primeiro,
06:00
and which one should we do afterwards?
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e que debemos facer despois.
06:02
So this is the list, and this is the one I'd like to share with you.
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Así que esta é a lista, e esta é a lista que querería compartir convosco.
06:05
Of course, you can also see it on the website,
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Claro que tamén a podedes ver na web,
06:07
and we'll also talk about it more, I'm sure, as the day goes on.
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e estou certo de que tamén falaremos disto conforme avance o día.
06:10
They basically came up with a list where they said
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Básicamente elaboraron unha lista na que dicían
06:12
there were bad projects -- basically, projects
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que había malos proxectos -- básicamente, proxectos
06:15
where if you invest a dollar, you get less than a dollar back.
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onde invistes un dolar, e recibes menos dun dolar como resultado.
06:18
Then there's fair projects, good projects and very good projects.
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Despois estaban os proxectos axeitados, os bos e os mois bos.
06:22
And of course, it's the very good projects we should start doing.
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E naturalmente, son os proxectos moi bos os que deberíamos comezar por facer.
06:24
I'm going to go from backwards
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Vou comezar dende o último
06:26
so that we end up with the best projects.
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de modo que podamos rematar cos mellores proxectos.
06:28
These were the bad projects.
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Estes foron os malos.
06:30
As you might see the bottom of the list was climate change.
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Como podedes ver ó final da lista está a mudanza climática.
06:34
This offends a lot of people, and that's probably one of the things
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Isto ofende a moita xente, e iso é probablemente unha das cousas
06:38
where people will say I shouldn't come back, either.
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sobre as que a xente dirá que non debería regresar.
06:40
And I'd like to talk about that, because that's really curious.
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E me gustaría falar sobre iso, porque é realmente curioso.
06:42
Why is it it came up?
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Por que apareceu?
06:44
And I'll actually also try to get back to this
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E a verdade, tamén tentarei falar de novo disto
06:46
because it's probably one of the things
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porque é probablemente unha das cousas
06:48
that we'll disagree with on the list that you wrote down.
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nas que non estaremos de acordo coas listas que vos escribístedes.
06:50
The reason why they came up with saying that Kyoto --
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A razón pola que resultou que dixeron isto é que Kyoto --
06:53
or doing something more than Kyoto -- is a bad deal
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ou facer algo máis que Kyoto -- non é un bo negocio
06:55
is simply because it's very inefficient.
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simplemente porque é moi ineficiente.
06:57
It's not saying that global warming is not happening.
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Non é dicir que non existe o quecemento global.
06:59
It's not saying that it's not a big problem.
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Non é dicir que non é un grande problema.
07:01
But it's saying that what we can do about it
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Pero é dicir que o que nos podemos facer por elo
07:03
is very little, at a very high cost.
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é moi pouco, a un custo moi elevado.
07:06
What they basically show us, the average of all macroeconomic models,
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O que básicamente nos mostran, a media de todos os modelos macroeconómicos.
07:10
is that Kyoto, if everyone agreed, would cost about 150 billion dollars a year.
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e que Kyoto, se todo o mundo estivese de acordo, costaría uns 150 mil millóns de dolares ao ano.
07:15
That's a substantial amount of money.
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Iso é unha importante cantidade de diñeiro.
07:17
That's two to three times the global development aid
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Dúas ou tres veces a axuda global ao desenvolvemento
07:19
that we give the Third World every year.
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que adicamos ao Terceiro Mundo cada ano.
07:21
Yet it would do very little good.
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E para facer moi pouco ben.
07:23
All models show it will postpone warming for about six years in 2100.
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Todos os modelos mostran que posporá o aquecemento uns seis anos cara o 2100.
07:27
So the guy in Bangladesh who gets a flood in 2100 can wait until 2106.
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Así que un tipo en Bangladesh que vaia sufrir unha inundación no 2100 pode agardar ata 2106.
07:31
Which is a little good, but not very much good.
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O que está algo ben, pero non moi ben.
07:33
So the idea here really is to say, well, we've spent a lot of money doing a little good.
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Así que a idea e dicir, ben, gastamos unha morea de cartos facendo algo de ben.
07:38
And just to give you a sense of reference,
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E simplemente por dar unha referencia,
07:40
the U.N. actually estimate that for half that amount,
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a ONU estima que pola metade desa cantidade,
07:42
for about 75 billion dollars a year,
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uns 75 mil millóns de dólares ao ano,
07:44
we could solve all major basic problems in the world.
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poderíamos solucionar todos os principais problemas básicos do mundo.
07:47
We could give clean drinking water, sanitation, basic healthcare
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Poderíamos dar auga limpa, saneamento, sanidade básica
07:50
and education to every single human being on the planet.
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e educación a todos os seres humanos do planeta.
07:53
So we have to ask ourselves, do we want to spend twice the amount
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Así que deberíamos preguntármonos, queremos gastar o dobre
07:57
on doing very little good?
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en facer moi pouco ben?
07:58
Or half the amount on doing an amazing amount of good?
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Ou a metade facendo algo increíblemente bo?
08:01
And that is really why it becomes a bad project.
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E é aí onde se transforma nun mal proxecto.
08:04
It's not to say that if we had all the money in the world, we wouldn't want to do it.
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Non é dicir que si tivesemos todo o diñeiro do mundo, non o quereríamos facer.
08:07
But it's to say, when we don't, it's just simply not our first priority.
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Senon, que cando non o temos, simplemente non é a nosa primeira prioridade.
08:11
The fair projects -- notice I'm not going to comment on all these --
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Os proxectos axeitados -- non vou comentar todos --
08:14
but communicable diseases, scale of basic health services -- just made it,
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pero enfermidades contaxiosas, escala de servizos básicos sanitarios -- o son por pouco,
08:18
simply because, yes, scale of basic health services is a great thing.
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simplemente porque, sí, a escala de servizos básicos de saúde é unha grande cousa.
08:21
It would do a lot of good, but it's also very, very costly.
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Faría moito ben, pero tamén e moi, pero que moi costosa.
08:24
Again, what it tells us is suddenly
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Unha vez máis, o que nos dí e de repente
08:26
we start thinking about both sides of the equation.
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comezamos a pensar nos dous lados da ecuación.
08:28
If you look at the good projects, a lot of sanitation and water projects came in.
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Se mirades os bos proxectos, aparecen un montón de proxectos de saneamento.
08:32
Again, sanitation and water is incredibly important,
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Unha vez máis, o saneamento e a auga é incríblemente importante,
08:34
but it also costs a lot of infrastructure.
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pero tamén custa moita infraestrutura.
08:37
So I'd like to show you the top four priorities
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Así que vos vou mostrar as catro máximas prioridades
08:39
which should be at least the first ones that we deal with
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que deberían ser, cando menos, as primeiras que solucionar
08:42
when we talk about how we should deal with the problems in the world.
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cando falamos de como deberíamos solucionar os problemas do mundo.
08:45
The fourth best problem is malaria -- dealing with malaria.
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O cuarto maior probelma é a malaria -- tratar a malaria.
08:49
The incidence of malaria is about a couple of [million] people get infected every year.
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A incidencia da malaria é de sobre un par de millóns de persoas infectadas cada ano.
08:53
It might even cost up towards a percentage point of GDP
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Podería incluso costar un punto porcentual do PIB
08:57
every year for affected nations.
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ao ano para as nacións afectadas.
08:59
If we invested about 13 billion dollars over the next four years,
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Se investísemos uns 13 mil millóns de dólares nos próximos catro anos,
09:03
we could bring that incidence down to half.
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poderíamos reducir a incidencia á metade.
09:05
We could avoid about 500,000 people dying,
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Poderíamos evitar a morte dunhas 500.000 persoas,
09:08
but perhaps more importantly, we could avoid about a [million] people
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pero o que quizáis é máis importante, poderíamos evitar que mil millóns de persoas
09:11
getting infected every year.
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se infectasen cada ano.
09:12
We would significantly increase their ability
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Incrementaríamos significativamenta a súa capacidade
09:14
to deal with many of the other problems that they have to deal with --
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para tratar moitos dos outros problemas que teñen que afrontar.
09:17
of course, in the long run, also to deal with global warming.
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Naturalmente, no longo prazo, tamén a lidiar co quecemento global.
09:21
This third best one was free trade.
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A terceira mellor é o libre comercio.
09:24
Basically, the model showed that if we could get free trade,
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Básicamente, o modelo mostrou que se puidesemos acadar o libre comercio,
09:27
and especially cut subsidies in the U.S. and Europe,
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e especialmente cortando as axudas dos USA e Europa,
09:30
we could basically enliven the global economy
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poderíamos básicamente elevar a economía global
09:34
to an astounding number of about 2,400 billion dollars a year,
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ate a asombrosa cifra duns 2'4 billóns de dolares ao ano,
09:38
half of which would accrue to the Third World.
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a metade dos cales provería do Terceiro Mundo.
09:40
Again, the point is to say that we could actually pull
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Unha vez máis, poderíamos realmente sacar
09:43
two to three hundred million people out of poverty,
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a 200 ou 300 millóns de persoas da pobreza,
09:46
very radically fast, in about two to five years.
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radicalmente e moi rápido, entre dous e cinco anos.
09:49
That would be the third best thing we could do.
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Esa sería a terceira mellor cousa que poderíamos facer.
09:51
The second best thing would be to focus on malnutrition.
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A segunda mellor cousa sería centrarse na desnutrición.
09:55
Not just malnutrition in general, but there's a very cheap way
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Non desnutrición en xeral, senon un camiño moi económico
09:58
of dealing with malnutrition, namely, the lack of micronutrients.
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de tratar a desnutrición, é dicir, a falta de micronutrientes.
10:01
Basically, about half of the world's population is lacking in
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Básicamente, a metade da poboación do mundo ten falla de
10:04
iron, zinc, iodine and vitamin A.
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ferro, zinc, iodo e vitamina A.
10:06
If we invest about 12 billion dollars,
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Se investisemos 12 mil millóns de dólares,
10:08
we could make a severe inroad into that problem.
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poderíamos facer unha profunda incursión nese problema.
10:11
That would be the second best investment that we could do.
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Esta sería a segunda mellor inverisón que poderíamos facer.
10:14
And the very best project would be to focus on HIV/AIDS.
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E o mellor proxecto sería centrarse en VIH/SIDA.
10:19
Basically, if we invest 27 billion dollars over the next eight years,
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Básicamente, se investimos 27 mil millóns de dólares nos próximos oito anos,
10:23
we could avoid 28 new million cases of HIV/AIDS.
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poderíamos evitar 28 millóns de novos casos de VIH/SIDA.
10:27
Again, what this does and what it focuses on is saying
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Outra vez, o que isto fai e no que se centra é en dicir
10:31
there are two very different ways that we can deal with HIV/AIDS.
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que temos dúas formas moi diferentes como tratar co VIH/SIDA.
10:34
One is treatment; the other one is prevention.
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Unha é o tratamento e a outra é a prevención.
10:37
And again, in an ideal world, we would do both.
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Unha vez máis, nun mundo ideal, faríamos as dúas.
10:40
But in a world where we don't do either, or don't do it very well,
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Pero nun mundo onde non facemos calquera das dúas ou onde non o facemos moi ben,
10:43
we have to at least ask ourselves where should we invest first.
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deberíamos, cando menos, preguntarnos onde deberíamos investir primeiro.
10:47
And treatment is much, much more expensive than prevention.
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E o tratamento é moito, moito máis caro que a prevención.
10:50
So basically, what this focuses on is saying, we can do a lot more
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Así que básicamnete, no que isto se centra é en dicir que podemos facer moito máis
10:54
by investing in prevention.
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investindo na prevención.
10:56
Basically for the amount of money that we spend,
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Básicamente para a cantidade de diñeiro que gastamos.
10:58
we can do X amount of good in treatment,
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podemos facer X ben en tratamento,
11:01
and 10 times as much good in prevention.
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e 10 veces máis en prevención.
11:04
So again, what we focus on is prevention rather than treatment,
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Así que unha vez máis, debemos centrarnos en prevención máis que en tratamento,
11:07
at first rate.
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como primeira opción.
11:08
What this really does is that it makes us think about our priorities.
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O que isto fai é que realmente nos obriga a pensar nas nosas prioridades.
11:12
I'd like to have you look at your priority list and say,
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Me gustaría que mirásedes á vosa lista de prioiridades e dixérades,
11:16
did you get it right?
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o fixéchedes ben?
11:18
Or did you get close to what we came up with here?
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ou chegáchedes a algo parecido ao que fixemos aquí?
11:20
Well, of course, one of the things is climate change again.
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Ben, naturalemnte, unha das cousas é novamente a mudanza climática.
11:24
I find a lot of people find it very, very unlikely that we should do that.
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Atopo moita xente que pensa que é moi, pero que moi pouco probable que fixeramos iso.
11:27
We should also do climate change,
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Tamén deberíamos facer mudanza climática,
11:29
if for no other reason, simply because it's such a big problem.
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se non hai outro motivo, simplemente porque é un grande problema.
11:32
But of course, we don't do all problems.
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Pero, naturalmente, non resolvemos todos os probelmas.
11:35
There are many problems out there in the world.
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Temos moitos problemas no mundo.
11:37
And what I want to make sure of is, if we actually focus on problems,
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E o que quero asegurarvos é que se nos centramos nos problemas,
11:41
that we focus on the right ones.
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nos centremos nos máis axeitados.
11:43
The ones where we can do a lot of good rather than a little good.
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Naqueles que podemos facer moito ben máis que pouco ben.
11:46
And I think, actually -- Thomas Schelling,
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E penso, a verdade --Thomas Schelling,
11:49
one of the participants in the dream team, he put it very, very well.
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un dos participantes do "dream team", o explicou moi, moi ben.
11:53
One of things that people forget, is that in 100 years,
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Unha das cousas que a xente olvida, e que en 100 anos,
11:56
when we're talking about most of the climate change impacts will be,
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cando esteamos a falar da maioría dos impactos da mudanza climática,
11:59
people will be much, much richer.
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a xente será moito, moito máis rica.
12:01
Even the most pessimistic impact scenarios of the U.N.
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Incluso os escenarios de impactos máis pesimistas da ONU
12:05
estimate that the average person in the developing world in 2100
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estiman que unha persoa media no mundo en desenvolvemento no 2100
12:08
will be about as rich as we are today.
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será tan rica como nos o somos hoxe.
12:10
Much more likely, they will be two to four times richer than we are.
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E moito máis probable, serán de dúas a catro veces máis ricos do que os somos nos.
12:14
And of course, we'll be even richer than that.
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E naturalmente, nos seremos incluso máis ricos que iso.
12:16
But the point is to say, when we talk about saving people,
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Pero a cuestión é, que cando falamos de salvar xente,
12:20
or helping people in Bangladesh in 2100,
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o axudar á xente en Bangladesh en 2100,
12:23
we're not talking about a poor Bangladeshi.
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non estamos a falar dun pobre Bangaldés.
12:25
We're actually talking about a fairly rich Dutch guy.
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Estamos a falar dun holandes bastante rico.
12:27
And so the real point, of course, is to say,
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E así o tema real, naturalmente, que é dicir,
12:29
do we want to spend a lot of money helping a little,
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queremos gastar moito diñeiro axudando un pouco,
12:33
100 years from now, a fairly rich Dutch guy?
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de aquí a 100 anos, a un holandés bastante rico?
12:35
Or do we want to help real poor people, right now, in Bangladesh,
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ou queremos axudar á xente pobre, nestes intres, en Bangladesh,
12:40
who really need the help, and whom we can help very, very cheaply?
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quen precisa realmente a axuda, e a quen podemos axudar moi económicamente?
12:43
Or as Schelling put it, imagine if you were a rich -- as you will be --
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Ou como os dixo Schelling, imaxina que foses rico -- como acontecerá --
12:48
a rich Chinese, a rich Bolivian, a rich Congolese, in 2100,
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un chino rico, un boliviano rico, un congoleño rico no 2100
12:53
thinking back on 2005, and saying, "How odd that they cared so much
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pensando no 2005 e dicindo, "como é que se preocuparon tanto
12:59
about helping me a little bit through climate change,
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por axudarme un pouco con este tema da mudanza climática,
13:03
and cared so fairly little about helping my grandfather
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e se preocuparon tan pouco por axudar ao meu avó
13:07
and my great grandfather, whom they could have helped so much more,
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e o meu bisavó, a quen poderían ter axudado tantísimo,
13:10
and who needed the help so much more?"
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e que o necesitaban moito máis?"
13:13
So I think that really does tell us why it is
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Así que penso que o que realmente nos dí por que
13:16
we need to get our priorities straight.
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precisamos poñer as nosas prioridades en orde.
13:18
Even if it doesn't accord to the typical way we see this problem.
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Incluso se non concorda coa típica forma de ver este problema.
13:21
Of course, that's mainly because climate change has good pictures.
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Por suposto, iso é fundamentalmente porque a mudanza climática ten unhas fotos tan boas.
13:26
We have, you know, "The Day After Tomorrow" -- it looks great, right?
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Sabedes que temos "El día de mañana" -- parece xenial, non?
13:29
It's a good film in the sense that
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É unha boa película no sentido de que
13:32
I certainly want to see it, right, but don't expect Emmerich
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quero vela, certo, pero non creo que Emmerich
13:35
to cast Brad Pitt in his next movie
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vaia a escoller a Brad Pitt na súa próxima película
13:38
digging latrines in Tanzania or something. (Laughter)
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cavando letrinas en Tanzania ou algo así. (Risa)
13:40
It just doesn't make for as much of a movie.
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Simplemente non da para unha película.
13:42
So in many ways, I think of the Copenhagen Consensus
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Así que en moitos modos, penso que o Consenso de Copenhaguen
13:44
and the whole discussion of priorities
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e toda a discusión acerca das prioridades
13:46
as a defense for boring problems.
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é unha defensa dos problemas aburridos.
13:49
To make sure that we realize it's not about making us feel good.
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Para asegurármonos de que non é simplemente para facernos sentir ben,
13:53
It's not about making things that have the most media attention,
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non vai sobre facer as cousas que teñen a maior atracción mediática,
13:58
but it's about making places where we can actually do the most good.
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pero tamén vai sobre facer lugares onde podemos realmente facer un maior ben .
14:01
The other objections, I think, that are important to say,
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As outras obxeccións, penso, que son importantes,
14:04
is that I'm somehow -- or we are somehow -- positing a false choice.
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é que de algunha manera estou -- ou estamos -- a propoñer unha elección falsa.
14:08
Of course, we should do all things,
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Naturalmente que debemos facelo todo,
14:10
in an ideal world -- I would certainly agree.
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nun mundo ideal -- estaría totalmente de acordo.
14:12
I think we should do all things, but we don't.
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Penso que deberíamos facer todas as cousas, pero non as facemos.
14:14
In 1970, the developed world decided we were going to spend
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No 1970, o mundo desenvolvido decidiu que íamos gastar
14:18
twice as much as we did, right now, than in 1970, on the developing world.
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o dobre do que fixemos, agora mesmo, que no 1970 nos países en vías de desenvolvimento.
14:24
Since then our aid has halved.
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Como a nosa axuda se reduciu á metade.
14:26
So it doesn't look like we're actually on the path
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Non parece que estamos no camiño
14:29
of suddenly solving all big problems.
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de resolver repentinamente todos os grandes problemas.
14:31
Likewise, people are also saying, but what about the Iraq war?
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Do mesmo modo, a xente tamén dicía, pero que hai da guerra do Iraque?
14:34
You know, we spend 100 billion dollars --
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Sabedes, gastamos 100 mil millóns de dóalres.
14:36
why don't we spend that on doing good in the world?
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Por que non gastamos iso facendo o ben no mundo.
14:38
I'm all for that.
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Eu estou totamente a favor.
14:39
If any one of you guys can talk Bush into doing that, that's fine.
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Se algún de vos pode falar con Bush para que faga iso, está ben.
14:41
But the point, of course, is still to say,
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Pero naturalmente o tema todavía é dicir,
14:43
if you get another 100 billion dollars,
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que se tiveses outros 100 mil millóns de dólares,
14:45
we still want to spend that in the best possible way, don't we?
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todavía quereríamos gastalso da mellor maneira posible, non?
14:48
So the real issue here is to get ourselves back
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Así que o problema real, é comezar de novo
14:50
and think about what are the right priorities.
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e pensar cales son as prioridades correctas.
14:52
I should just mention briefly, is this really the right list that we got out?
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Debería mencionar brevemente, é esta realmente a lista correcta?
14:56
You know, when you ask the world's best economists,
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Sabedes, cando preguntas aos mellores economistas do mundo,
14:59
you inevitably end up asking old, white American men.
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inevitablemente acabas por preguntarlles a homes brancos e vellos dos Estados Unidos
15:02
And they're not necessarily, you know,
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E non son necesariamente
15:04
great ways of looking at the entire world.
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unha forma xenial de mirar ao mundo enteiro.
15:08
So we actually invited 80 young people from all over the world
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Así que invitamos a 80 xovenes de todo o mundo
15:10
to come and solve the same problem.
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para que resolvesen o mesmo problema.
15:12
The only two requirements were that they were studying at the university,
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Os únicos dous requisitos eran que estivesen estudando na universidade,
15:16
and they spoke English.
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e que falasen inglés.
15:18
The majority of them were, first, from developing countries.
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A maioría deles eran, primeiro, de paises en vías de desenvolvimento.
15:21
They had all the same material but they could go vastly
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Tiñan o mesmo material pero poderían afastarese moitísimo
15:23
outside the scope of discussion, and they certainly did,
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do tema da discusión, como realmente fixeron,
15:26
to come up with their own lists.
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para elaborar as súas propias listas.
15:28
And the surprising thing was that the list was very similar --
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E o sorprendente foi que a lista era moi similar --
15:30
with malnutrition and diseases at the top
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con desnutrición e enfermidades no máis alto
15:33
and climate change at the bottom.
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e mudanza climática ó final.
15:35
We've done this many other times.
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Temos feito isto moitas outras veces.
15:36
There's been many other seminars and university students, and different things.
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Houbo moitos outros seminarios e estudantes universitarios e cousas diferentes.
15:39
They all come out with very much the same list.
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Todos tiñan como resultado a mesma lista.
15:42
And that gives me great hope, really, in saying that I do believe
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E iso me da unha grande esperanza, realmente, para dicir que creo
15:46
that there is a path ahead to get us to start thinking about priorities,
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que existe un camiño por diante para comezar a pensar nas nosas prioridades.
15:51
and saying, what is the important thing in the world?
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E dicir, que é o máis importante do mundo?
15:53
Of course, in an ideal world, again we'd love to do everything.
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Naturalmente, nun mundo ideal, nos encantaría facelo todo.
15:56
But if we don't do it, then we can start thinking about where should we start?
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Pero se non o facemos todo, podemos comezar a pensar por onde empezaríamos?
16:00
I see the Copenhagen Consensus as a process.
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Eu vexo o Consenso de Copenhaguen como un proceso.
16:02
We did it in 2004,
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O fixemos no 2004,
16:04
and we hope to assemble many more people,
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e esperamos xuntar moita máis xente,
16:05
getting much better information for 2008, 2012.
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para obter moita mellor información en 2008, 2012.
16:09
Map out the right path for the world --
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Deseñar o camiño correcto para o mundo.
16:11
but also to start thinking about political triage.
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Pero tamén comezar a pensar en evaluación política.
16:14
To start thinking about saying, "Let's do
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Para empezar a pensar en dicir, "Non fagamos
16:16
not the things where we can do very little at a very high cost,
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as cousas nas que podemos gañar pouco cun custo elevado,
16:19
not the things that we don't know how to do,
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nin as cousas que non sabemos como facer,
16:21
but let's do the great things where we can do an enormous
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pero fagamos cousas xeniais onde podemos facer un enorme
16:24
amount of good, at very low cost, right now."
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ben, a baixo custo, agora mesmo.
16:28
At the end of the day, you can disagree
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Ao fin do día, podedes estar en desacordo
16:30
with the discussion of how we actually prioritize these,
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coa discusión de como podemos realmente priorizar,
16:32
but we have to be honest and frank about saying,
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pero temos que ser honestos e francos para dicir,
16:35
if there's some things we do, there are other things we don't do.
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se hai algunas cousas que facemos, temos outras que non facemos.
16:38
If we worry too much about some things,
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Se nos preocupamos moito sobre algunhas cousas,
16:40
we end by not worrying about other things.
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terminamos por non nos preocupar por outras.
16:42
So I hope this will help us make better priorities,
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Así que espero que esto nos axudará a establecer mellor as prioridades,
16:44
and think about how we better work for the world.
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e pensar como traballamos mellor para o mundo.
16:46
Thank you.
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Grazas
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bjorn Lomborg - Global prioritizerDanish political scientist Bjorn Lomborg heads the Copenhagen Consensus, which has prioritized the world's greatest problems -- global warming, world poverty, disease -- based on how effective our solutions might be. It's a thought-provoking, even provocative list.
Why you should listen
Bjorn Lomborg isn't afraid to voice an unpopular opinion. In 2007, he was named one of the 100 Most Influential People by Time magazine after the publication of his controversial book The Skeptical Environmentalist, which challenged widely held beliefs that the environment is getting worse. This year, he was named on of the "50 people who cold save the planet" by the Guardian newspaper. In 2007 he published Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming, further analyzes what today's science tells us about global warming and its risks. That same year, his next book Solutions for the World's Biggest Problems was released, which provided a summary of the greatest challenges facing humanity.
In 2004, he convened the Copenhagen Consensus, which tries to prioritize the world's greatest challenges based on the impact we can make, a sort of bang-for-the-buck breakdown for attacking problems such as global warming, world poverty and disease.
It begins from the premise that we can't solve every problem in the world, and asks: Which ones should we fix first? The Copenhagen Consensus 2004 tapped the expertise of world-leading economists, as well as a diverse forum of young participants; collectively, they determined that control of HIV/AIDS was the best investment -- and mitigating global warming was the worst. Lomborg summarized these findings in How to Spend $50 Billion to Make the World a Better Place. In spring of 2008, Copenhagen Consensus convened again, assembling over 55 international economists, including 4 Nobel laureates, to assess, prioritize and brainstorm solutions for the major global challenges of today, including conflicts, malnutrition, health, education and terrorism. In 2013, he published How to Spend $75 Billion to Make the Wolrd a Better Place.
Bjorn Lomborg | Speaker | TED.com