TEDxSeattleU
Ken Jennings: Watson, Jeopardy and me, the obsolete know-it-all
肯·詹寧斯: 沃森、危險邊緣和我，淘汰的通天曉
Filmed:
Readability: 3.6
1,338,700 views
通天曉肯·詹寧斯以記憶百科知識為職業，他是美國電視節目危險邊緣獲勝記錄最長的選手。但在 2011 年，在與超級電腦沃森的對抗中，他輸了。在這個演講中，詹寧斯幽默而謙遜地將我們講述了他在最擅長的遊戲中被電腦打敗的感受，並依此說明傳統的人類知識的重要性。（攝於TEDxSeattleU）
Ken Jennings - Know-it-all
Ken Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic American trivia game show, Jeopardy. Full bio
Ken Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic American trivia game show, Jeopardy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
再過兩週，就是我首次踏上電視競賽節目
00:12
In two weeks time, that's the ninth anniversary
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00:15
of the day I first stepped out onto that hallowed "Jeopardy" set.
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「危險邊緣」九週年了。
00:19
I mean, nine years is a long time.
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九年時間不短。
鑒於「危險邊緣」觀眾平均年歲，
00:21
And given "Jeopardy's" average demographics,
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00:23
I think what that means
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我想這意味著
00:24
is most of the people who saw me on that show are now dead.
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當初看我上節目的大部分觀眾都已離世了。
00:27
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:29
But not all, a few are still alive.
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不過，還有些健在的。
00:31
Occasionally I still get recognized at the mall or whatever.
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偶爾在商場等地方，我也會被人認出來。
人們認為我就是個「通天曉」
00:33
And when I do, it's as a bit of a know-it-all.
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00:36
I think that ship has sailed, it's too late for me.
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我想木已成舟，我已無力改變。
是好是壞，我就是人們心裡那個，
00:38
For better or for worse, that's what I'm going to be known as,
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博識奇異怪事的人。
00:41
as the guy who knew a lot of weird stuff.
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00:44
And I can't complain about this.
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對此我也沒有抱怨。
00:46
I feel like that was always sort of my destiny,
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我常覺得那就是我的命運，
00:49
although I had for many years been pretty deeply in the trivia closet.
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儘管多年來我一直隱藏對百科知識的著迷。
00:52
If nothing else, you realize very quickly as a teenager,
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不難料想，少年時你很快會發現，
00:55
it is not a hit with girls to know Captain Kirk's middle name.
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知道卻克船長的中間名對女生而言沒有任何吸引力。
00:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:59
And as a result, I was sort of the deeply closeted kind of know-it-all for many years.
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因此，許久我都算是個韜光養晦的「通天曉」
不過若你回顧更早些年，一切不言自明。
01:03
But if you go further back, if you look at it, it's all there.
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01:07
I was the kind of kid who was always bugging Mom and Dad
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小時候，我就經常纏著爸媽
興緻勃勃告訴他們書本中讀到的世界奇事
01:10
with whatever great fact I had just read about --
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01:13
Haley's comet or giant squids
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哈雷彗星也好，巨烏賊也好
01:14
or the size of the world's biggest pumpkin pie or whatever it was.
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或是世上最大的南瓜派有多大，諸如此類。
我有個十歲的孩子，和我當年一模一樣。
01:18
I now have a 10-year-old of my own who's exactly the same.
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01:21
And I know how deeply annoying it is, so karma does work.
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因此我知道那多麼煩人，所以說是因果循環。
（笑聲）
01:26
(Laughter)
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01:27
And I loved game shows, fascinated with game shows.
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我喜愛遊戲節目，為此深深著迷。
01:30
I remember crying on my first day of kindergarten back in 1979
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我記得 1979 年我在上幼稚園的第一天哭了
01:33
because it had just hit me, as badly as I wanted to go to school,
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因為我突然意識到，儘管我想去上學，
但我會因此錯過「好萊塢廣場」和「家庭問答」
01:36
that I was also going to miss "Hollywood Squares" and "Family Feud."
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01:39
I was going to miss my game shows.
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我會錯過喜歡的遊戲節目。
後來，到了80年代中期，
01:43
And later, in the mid-'80s,
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01:45
when "Jeopardy" came back on the air,
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當「危險邊緣」重回螢幕，
01:47
I remember running home from school every day to watch the show.
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我每天放學後都會跑回家看。
它是我最喜歡的節目，當時我還沒有贏得獎金。
01:51
It was my favorite show, even before it paid for my house.
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我們當時住在韓國，我父親在那兒工作，
01:56
And we lived overseas, we lived in South Korea where my dad was working,
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01:59
where there was only one English language TV channel.
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那兒只有一個英語頻道。
叫做武裝力量臺，
02:01
There was Armed Forces TV,
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02:02
and if you didn't speak Korean, that's what you were watching.
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如果你不懂韓文就只能看這個臺。
02:05
So me and all my friends would run home every day and watch "Jeopardy."
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我和我的夥伴們每天都會跑回家看「危險邊緣」
02:08
I was always that kind of obsessed trivia kid.
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我一直都是那種沉迷於百科知識的孩子。
02:11
I remember being able to play Trivial Pursuit against my parents back in the '80s
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我記得80年代和我父母玩棋盤遊戲
當時很流行，我玩得不錯。
02:16
and holding my own, back when that was a fad.
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當你知道一些父母不知道的百科知識時
02:19
There's a weird sense of mastery you get
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02:21
when you know some bit of boomer trivia that Mom and Dad don't know.
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會有一種很奇怪的優越感。
02:24
You know some Beatles factoid that Dad didn't know.
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當你知道一些爸爸都不知道的有關披頭四的傳聞時，
02:28
And you think, ah hah, knowledge really is power --
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你會想，啊哈，知識果然是力量，
02:31
the right fact deployed at exactly the right place.
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準確的資訊落到了對的人手裡。
02:38
I never had a guidance counselor
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沒有一個指導顧問
02:40
who thought this was a legitimate career path,
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認為這是一個可以從事的職業，
02:42
that thought you could major in trivia
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認為你可以主修百科，
02:45
or be a professional ex-game show contestant.
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或成為一個職業的前遊戲競賽選手。
02:48
And so I sold out way too young.
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我太年輕，就放棄了。
02:50
I didn't try to figure out what one does with that.
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沒有試著搞清楚如何發揮特長。
02:52
I studied computers because I heard that was the thing,
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我隨主流，學了電機工程，
02:54
and I became a computer programmer --
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並成為了一名電腦程序員，
02:56
not an especially good one,
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成就平平，
02:58
not an especially happy one at the time when I was first on "Jeopardy" in 2004.
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2004年上節目的時候工作也不是特別開心。
03:03
But that's what I was doing.
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但當時那是我的生活。
03:04
And it made it doubly ironic -- my computer background --
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更加諷刺的是，我的電機背景，
03:07
a few years later, I think 2009 or so,
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在幾年後，大概2009年左右，
03:11
when I got another phone call from "Jeopardy" saying,
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節目組打電話給我說，
“現在為時尚早，但IBM告訴我們
03:14
"It's early days yet, but IBM tells us
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03:16
they want to build a supercomputer to beat you at 'Jeopardy.'
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他們想造一台超級電腦與你競賽。
03:21
Are you up for this?"
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你有興趣嗎？”
03:23
This was the first I'd heard of it.
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這是我第一次聽說這種事。
03:24
And of course I said yes, for several reasons.
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我當然一口答應了，原因有幾點：
其一，我喜歡參加「危險邊緣」。
03:27
One, because playing "Jeopardy" is a great time.
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它充滿樂趣，是你能穿著褲子做的最有樂趣的事。
03:29
It's fun. It's the most fun you can have with your pants on.
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（笑聲）
03:33
(Laughter)
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不用任何回報我都會參加。
03:35
And I would do it for nothing.
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幸好他們當時不知道，
03:36
I don't think they know that, luckily,
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但就算給我快餐券我也願意去。
03:38
but I would go back and play for Arby's coupons.
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我真心熱愛「危險邊緣」，一直都是。
03:41
I just love "Jeopardy," and I always have.
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03:43
And second of all, because I'm a nerdy guy and this seemed like the future.
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其二，我是個書呆子，而電腦看似是未來趨勢。
03:48
People playing computers on game shows
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遊戲節目上的人機大戰，
03:50
was the kind of thing I always imagined would happen in the future,
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我一直認為會在未來某天發生。
03:53
and now I could be on the stage with it.
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而現在我能和它在臺上一決高下。
03:54
I was not going to say no.
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我肯定不會拒絕。
03:55
The third reason I said yes
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其三，我一口答應
03:56
is because I was pretty confident that I was going to win.
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是因為我很有信心可以贏得比賽。
03:59
I had taken some artificial intelligence classes.
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我上過一些人工智能的課程。
04:01
I knew there were no computers that could do what you need to do to win on "Jeopardy."
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知道電腦不具備贏得「危險邊緣」的能力。
04:05
People don't realize how tough it is to write that kind of program
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人們不知道要寫出那樣的程序有多難
04:09
that can read a "Jeopardy" clue in a natural language like English
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可以聽懂英語這一種人類自然語言的遊戲提示
04:12
and understand all the double meanings, the puns, the red herrings,
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理解各種雙關和障眼法，
04:16
unpack the meaning of the clue.
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破解提示中的含義。
04:18
The kind of thing that a three- or four-year-old human, little kid could do,
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這種事三四歲的孩子可以做，
但對電腦來說很難。
04:23
very hard for a computer.
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04:25
And I thought, well this is going to be child's play.
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我當時想，這將是輕而易舉。
04:28
Yes, I will come destroy the computer and defend my species.
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沒錯，我會打敗電腦捍衛我人類的尊嚴。
（笑聲）
04:33
(Laughter)
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04:35
But as the years went on,
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但幾年過去了，
04:37
as IBM started throwing money and manpower and processor speed at this,
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IBM在電腦上投入了大量的金錢、人力、高速處理器，
我開始偶爾聽到他們的進展，
04:40
I started to get occasional updates from them,
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04:43
and I started to get a little more worried.
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開始有一點擔心。
04:44
I remember a journal article about this new question answering software that had a graph.
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我記得一篇帶圖文章專門討論過這種答題軟體。
那是一個散點圖描述 「危險邊緣」比賽成績，
04:50
It was a scatter chart showing performance on "Jeopardy,"
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04:54
tens of thousands of dots representing "Jeopardy" champions up at the top
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成千上萬個點在頂部代表「危險邊緣」的冠軍們
他們的成績由
04:58
with their performance plotted on number of --
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05:00
I was going to say questions answered, but answers questioned, I guess,
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我本來想說的是所回答的問題，但我想應該說是被質疑的答案，標示
05:04
clues responded to --
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相應的線索-
05:06
versus the accuracy of those answers.
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來對比答案的準確性。
05:09
So there's a certain performance level that the computer would need to get to.
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電腦必須達到某一特定的分數水準。
05:12
And at first, it was very low.
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剛開始，分數很低。
05:14
There was no software that could compete at this kind of arena.
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沒有哪個軟體可以參加這樣的比賽。
05:17
But then you see the line start to go up.
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但接著你看到線條開始上走。
05:19
And it's getting very close to what they call the winner's cloud.
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開始接近所謂的優勝者區域。
05:22
And I noticed in the upper right of the scatter chart
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我注意到點圖的右上方
05:24
some darker dots, some black dots, that were a different color.
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有一些較深色的點，和其他黑點顏色不一樣。
05:30
And thought, what are these?
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我想，這是什麽？
“右上方的黑點代表「危險邊緣」74次冠軍肯·詹寧斯。”
05:31
"The black dots in the upper right represent 74-time 'Jeopardy' champion Ken Jennings."
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05:35
And I saw this line coming for me.
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我看到代表電腦的線向我逼近。
05:37
And I realized, this is it.
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我意識到，原來是這樣。
05:38
This is what it looks like when the future comes for you.
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這就是未來到來時的樣子。
05:40
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
05:42
It's not the Terminator's gun sight;
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不是終結者的槍戰場面；
05:45
it's a little line coming closer and closer to the thing you can do,
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是一條線在不斷地逼近你能做的事，
唯一讓你非凡的事，你最擅長的事。
05:49
the only thing that makes you special, the thing you're best at.
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05:52
And when the game eventually happened about a year later,
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一年後，比賽終於舉行了，
05:57
it was very different than the "Jeopardy" games I'd been used to.
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那和我以前玩的「危險邊緣」很不一樣。
06:00
We were not playing in L.A. on the regular "Jeopardy" set.
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我們沒在洛杉磯的片場比賽。
06:02
Watson does not travel.
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電腦沃森不能移動。
06:04
Watson's actually huge.
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實際上，沃森體積巨大。
06:05
It's thousands of processors, a terabyte of memory,
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有數以千計的處理器，一兆兆的記憶體容量，
數萬億字節的記憶體容量。
06:10
trillions of bytes of memory.
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06:11
We got to walk through his climate-controlled server room.
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我們要走過它恒溫的服務器室。
06:14
The only other "Jeopardy" contestant to this day I've ever been inside.
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那是到目前為止我唯一造訪過其內部的比賽選手。
06:17
And so Watson does not travel.
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因為沃森不能移動。
06:21
You must come to it; you must make the pilgrimage.
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所以你得去找它，去朝聖。
06:25
So me and the other human player
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所以我和其他選手
06:27
wound up at this secret IBM research lab
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聚集在這個秘密的IBM實驗室裡，
06:30
in the middle of these snowy woods in Westchester County
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在威徹斯特郡的雪域森林中，
06:33
to play the computer.
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和電腦競賽。
06:34
And we realized right away
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我們立刻意識到
電腦有巨大的主場優勢，
06:36
that the computer had a big home court advantage.
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舞臺中央有一個巨大的沃森圖標。
06:39
There was a big Watson logo in the middle of the stage.
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06:41
Like you're going to play the Chicago Bulls,
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就好像你要對戰芝加哥公牛隊，
06:44
and there's the thing in the middle of their court.
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球場中央有個大圖標。
06:46
And the crowd was full of IBM V.P.s and programmers
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觀賽人群中都是IBM的副總和程序員們
06:50
cheering on their little darling,
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為他們的小寶貝加油，
06:52
having poured millions of dollars into this
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在花費了數百萬美元後，
06:54
hoping against hope that the humans screw up,
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盼望人類會輸這一令人絕望結果，
06:57
and holding up "Go Watson" signs
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高舉“沃森加油”的標誌
06:59
and just applauding like pageant moms every time their little darling got one right.
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像選美比賽候選人的媽媽一樣，每次寶貝答對一個問題就鼓掌。
07:03
I think guys had "W-A-T-S-O-N" written on their bellies in grease paint.
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我印象中有人用油脂漆在肚子上寫"沃森"
07:09
If you can imagine computer programmers with the letters "W-A-T-S-O-N" written on their gut,
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你想像一下程序員們的肚子上寫字
07:15
it's an unpleasant sight.
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那可不是一幅美景。
07:16
But they were right. They were exactly right.
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但他們是對的，完全正確。
07:19
I don't want to spoil it, if you still have this sitting on your DVR,
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如果你還沒看過比賽錄影，我不想透漏劇情，
07:22
but Watson won handily.
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但沃森輕而易舉地贏了。
07:25
And I remember standing there behind the podium
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我記得站在講臺後，
07:28
as I could hear that little insectoid thumb clicking.
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聽到機器人拇指敲擊聲。
07:31
It had a robot thumb that was clicking on the buzzer.
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它有一個機器拇指按應答鍵。
07:34
And you could hear that little tick, tick, tick, tick.
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你可以聽到輕輕的咔嗒咔嗒咔嗒聲。
07:38
And I remember thinking, this is it.
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我記得當時想，這下完了。
07:41
I felt obsolete.
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我感覺被淘汰了。
07:42
I felt like a Detroit factory worker of the '80s
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像80年代底特律工廠的工人一樣
07:45
seeing a robot that could now do his job on the assembly line.
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看著機器人在生產線上做著自己的工作。
07:48
I felt like quiz show contestant was now the first job that had become obsolete
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我感覺智力競賽參賽者是第一個被
智能電腦所取代的崗位。
07:53
under this new regime of thinking computers.
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07:57
And it hasn't been the last.
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而它並不是最後一個。
07:59
If you watch the news, you'll see occasionally --
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如果你看新聞，就會偶爾看到
08:02
and I see this all the time --
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而我經常看到
08:03
that pharmacists now, there's a machine that can fill prescriptions automatically
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比如藥劑師，現在有機器可以自動配藥
不需要任何藥劑師的指導。
08:08
without actually needing a human pharmacist.
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08:11
And a lot of law firms are getting rid of paralegals
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許多律師事務所不需要雇傭法務助理
08:13
because there's software that can sum up case laws and legal briefs and decisions.
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因為有一種軟體可以做案例法、摘要和判決的摘要。
08:17
You don't need human assistants for that anymore.
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你不需要人類助理了。
08:20
I read the other day about a program where you feed it a box score
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前幾天我讀到一篇文章說只要你輸入
08:23
from a baseball or football game
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棒球或足球比賽的成績
08:25
and it spits out a news article as if a human had watched the game
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它就會自動導出一份報導
就好像是真人看過並做點評的一樣。
08:27
and was commenting on it.
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08:29
And obviously these new technologies can't do as clever or creative a job
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顯然這些技術與其所代替的人類相比
並不能做得一樣聰明和富有創造力，
08:33
as the humans they're replacing,
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08:34
but they're faster, and crucially, they're much, much cheaper.
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但它們更快，關鍵是它們非常便宜。
08:38
So it makes me wonder what the economic effects of this might be.
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因此我思考這其中的經濟效益。
08:43
I've read economists saying that, as a result of these new technologies,
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我曾讀到有經濟學家說，這些技術產生的結果之一
08:46
we'll enter a new golden age of leisure
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是我們可以進入休閒的黃金時代
08:48
when we'll all have time for the things we really love
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我們可以把時間花在我們喜歡的事物上
08:51
because all these onerous tasks will be taken over by Watson and his digital brethren.
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因為那些繁瑣的工作可以交給沃森和它的電子夥伴們。
08:58
I've heard other people say quite the opposite,
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我也聽過有些人持相反意見，
08:59
that this is yet another tier of the middle class
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說這是另一層中產階級
09:02
that's having the thing they can do taken away from them by a new technology
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他們所能做的事情被科技所取代
09:07
and that this is actually something ominous,
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這是不幸的開始，
09:08
something that we should worry about.
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值得我們擔心。
09:10
I'm not an economist myself.
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我不是經濟學家。
09:11
All I know is how it felt to be the guy put out of work.
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我只知道失去工作的感受，
09:15
And it was friggin' demoralizing. It was terrible.
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那是沉重的打擊，非常糟糕。
「危險邊緣」是我至今為止擅長的事，
09:18
Here's the one thing that I was ever good at,
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09:20
and all it took was IBM pouring tens of millions of dollars and its smartest people
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但只要IBM注以千萬美元投入人才
外加數以千計的處理器
09:24
and thousands of processors working in parallel
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就能將我取代。
09:27
and they could do the same thing.
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09:29
They could do it a little bit faster and a little better on national TV,
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在全國觀眾面前，他們能做的更快更好，
09:32
and "I'm sorry, Ken. We don't need you anymore."
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“不好意思，肯，我們不需要你了。”
09:35
And it made me think, what does this mean,
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這讓我思考，這意味著什麽，
09:39
if we're going to be able to start outsourcing,
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如果我們開始將工作外包，
09:40
not just lower unimportant brain functions.
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不僅是低級的大腦功能，
09:44
I'm sure many of you remember a distant time
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我想許多人都記得很久以前
09:46
when we had to know phone numbers, when we knew our friends' phone numbers.
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我們必須要記住朋友的電話號碼。
09:49
And suddenly there was a machine that did that,
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突然間，有一種機器可以做到，
09:51
and now we don't need to remember that anymore.
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現在用不著我們記了。
09:54
I have read that there's now actually evidence
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我讀到有報導說現在有證據表明
09:55
that the hippocampus, the part of our brain that handles spacial relationships,
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我們大腦中的海馬體（處理空間關係的組織）
10:00
physically shrinks and atrophies
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在逐漸萎縮
10:02
in people who use tools like GPS,
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比如使用GPS的人們，
10:04
because we're not exercising our sense of direction anymore.
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因為我們不使用方向感了，
10:07
We're just obeying a little talking voice on our dashboard.
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而是聽從儀錶盤上的語音指揮。
10:09
And as a result, a part of our brain that's supposed to do that kind of stuff
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結果，大腦中具有該功能的那部份
10:12
gets smaller and dumber.
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變小變遲鈍了。
10:13
And it made me think, what happens when computers are now better
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這也使得我思考，如果計算機
的理解和記憶功能比人類更強大會怎樣？
10:17
at knowing and remembering stuff than we are?
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10:21
Is all of our brain going to start to shrink and atrophy like that?
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我們的大腦是否都會像那樣萎縮呢？
10:25
Are we as a culture going to start to value knowledge less?
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人類文明是否會開始輕視知識的價值？
10:29
As somebody who has always believed in the importance of the stuff that we know,
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作為一個堅信知識力量的人，
10:32
this was a terrifying idea to me.
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這對我來說太可怕了。
我越想就越發現，不，這依然重要。
10:40
The more I thought about it, I realized, no, it's still important.
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10:45
The things we know are still important.
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我們的知識依然重要。
10:47
I came to believe there were two advantages
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我相信有兩大優勢
是我們這些用腦記知識的人有
10:50
that those of us who have these things in our head have
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而那些只會說“哦對，我可以google，等我一下“的人沒有的。
10:54
over somebody who says, "Oh, yeah. I can Google that. Hold on a second."
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10:58
There's an advantage of volume, and there's an advantage of time.
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一是資訊量的優勢，二是時間的優勢。
11:01
The advantage of volume, first,
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首先，資訊量的優勢
11:03
just has to do with the complexity of the world nowadays.
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與如今複雜的世界有關。
11:05
There's so much information out there.
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世界充斥著太多的資訊。
11:07
Being a Renaissance man or woman,
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想要成為像是文藝復興時期所說的全人
11:08
that's something that was only possible in the Renaissance.
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那也只有那個時代才有可能做到。
11:10
Now it's really not possible
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現在要想掌握所有領域的基本知識
11:11
to be reasonably educated on every field of human endeavor.
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是完全不可能了。
11:14
There's just too much.
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資訊量實在太大了。
11:16
They say that the scope of human information
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據說現在人類資訊範圍
11:19
is now doubling every 18 months or so,
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大約每18個月
11:21
the sum total of human information.
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人類資訊總量就成長一倍左右。
11:23
That means between now and late 2014,
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這意味著從現在到2014年下旬，
11:27
we will generate as much information, in terms of gigabytes,
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人們所產出的資訊，以千兆來算，將等同於
11:30
as all of humanity has in all the previous millenia put together.
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人類歷史上產出的資訊的總和。
並且每18個月就會多一倍。
11:34
It's doubling every 18 months now.
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11:36
This is terrifying because a lot of the big decisions we make
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這很駭人因為我們許多重要的決定
11:40
require the mastery of lots of different kinds of facts.
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都是基於多各種資訊的掌握之上。
11:43
A decision like where do I go to school? What should I major in?
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比如我應該上哪所學校？應該選什麽專業？
11:48
Who do I vote for?
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我應該投票給誰？
11:49
Do I take this job or that one?
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我接受這份工作還是那份？
11:51
These are the decisions that require correct judgments
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這些決定的做出
要基於對各種資訊的正確判斷。
11:55
about many different kinds of facts.
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11:57
If we have those facts at our mental fingertips,
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如果我們的能把這些知識存在腦子裡，
11:59
we're going to be able to make informed decisions.
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我們就能做出明智的決定。
12:01
If, on the other hand, we need to look them all up,
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但是，如果我們需要去搜索這些資訊，
12:04
we may be in trouble.
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我們可能會有麻煩。
12:06
According to a National Geographic survey I just saw,
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根據我剛讀到國家地理雜誌的調查顯示，
12:08
somewhere along the lines of 80 percent
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大約百分之八十左右
12:10
of the people who vote in a U.S. presidential election about issues like foreign policy
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就外交政策選舉美國總統的選民
12:14
cannot find Iraq or Afghanistan on a map.
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沒辦法在地圖上找到伊拉克和阿富汗。
12:17
If you can't do that first step,
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如果你連第一步都做不到，
12:20
are you really going to look up the other thousand facts you're going to need to know
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你真會去查其他幾千條你需要知道的資訊
來掌握美國外交政策嗎？
12:23
to master your knowledge of U.S. foreign policy?
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12:26
Quite probably not.
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這不大可能。
12:27
At some point you're just going to be like,
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某一刻，你會說
12:28
"You know what? There's too much to know. Screw it."
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”算了，要知道的實在太多了，管它的。“
12:30
And you'll make a less informed decision.
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這樣你的決定就不那麼明智了。
12:32
The other issue is the advantage of time that you have
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另外，如果這些資訊對你而言是信手拈來
12:35
if you have all these things at your fingertips.
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你就有一個時間優勢。
12:37
I always think of the story of a little girl named Tilly Smith.
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我常想到一個叫媞麗史密斯的女孩的故事。
12:41
She was a 10-year-old girl from Surrey, England
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她來自英國薩利郡
12:43
on vacation with her parents a few years ago in Phuket, Thailand.
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幾年前在泰國普吉島和父母度假。
12:47
She runs up to them on the beach one morning
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一天早晨在沙灘上，她跑到父母那兒，
12:48
and says, "Mom, Dad, we've got to get off the beach."
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說，”爸爸媽媽，我們必須離開海灘。“
12:51
And they say, "What do you mean? We just got here."
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他們說，”你說什麽？我們才來啊。“
12:54
And she said, "In Mr. Kearney's geography class last month,
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她說，”科尼先生上個月在地理課上說，
12:57
he told us that when the tide goes out abruptly out to sea
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當潮汐突然退向海面
13:00
and you see the waves churning way out there,
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波浪在海面上翻滾，
13:01
that's the sign of a tsunami, and you need to clear the beach."
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那是海嘯的預警，就得離開海灘。“
如果你10歲的女兒跑來說這些你會怎麼做？
13:06
What would you do if your 10-year-old daughter came up to you with this?
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13:08
Her parents thought about it,
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她的父母想了想，
13:09
and they finally, to their credit, decided to believe her.
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幸運的是，決定相信她。
13:11
They told the lifeguard, they went back to the hotel,
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他們告訴了救生員，回到酒店，
13:13
and the lifeguard cleared over 100 people off the beach, luckily,
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救生員讓100多人撤離了海灘，很幸運，
因為那就是南亞大海嘯，
13:17
because that was the day of the Boxing Day tsunami,
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2905
13:20
the day after Christmas, 2004,
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1595
2004年聖誕節後的那次，
13:22
that killed thousands of people in Southeast Asia and around the Indian Ocean.
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東南亞和印度洋數以千計的人遇難。
13:26
But not on that beach, not on Mai Khao Beach,
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但在那個麥考海灘上無一傷亡，
13:28
because this little girl had remembered one fact from her geography teacher a month before.
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5214
因為這個小女孩記得一個月前地理老師教的知識。
13:33
Now when facts come in handy like that --
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當資訊發揮這樣的作用-
13:35
I love that story because it shows you the power of one fact,
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我喜歡這個故事因為它顯示了一個資訊的力量，
13:39
one remembered fact in exactly the right place at the right time --
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一個記住的資訊在對的時間和地點發揮了作用-
13:43
normally something that's easier to see on game shows than in real life.
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比起在現實生活裡，有時這更容易反映在遊戲節目中。
13:46
But in this case it happened in real life.
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但在這個案例裡，則是實際發生在現實生活中。
13:48
And it happens in real life all the time.
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這樣的事情在現實生活中常常發生。
13:50
It's not always a tsunami, often it's a social situation.
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不會總是海嘯，通常只是一個社交場合。
13:52
It's a meeting or job interview or first date
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4713
可能是一個會議或面試或初次約會
13:57
or some relationship that gets lubricated
291
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1674
或者是一段關係
因為兩個人意識到他們有共同的知識而升溫。
13:58
because two people realize they share some common piece of knowledge.
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14:02
You say where you're from, and I say, "Oh, yeah."
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你說你來自哪裡，我說，“哦，對。”
14:04
Or your alma mater or your job,
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1633
或者是你的母校或你的工作，
14:06
and I know just a little something about it,
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我只知道一點相關的資訊，
14:08
enough to get the ball rolling.
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卻足以讓談話進行下去。
14:09
People love that shared connection that gets created
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人們喜歡和其他人的共鳴
14:11
when somebody knows something about you.
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當別人知道一些關於你的資訊就會產生連結。
14:13
It's like they took the time to get to know you before you even met.
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就好像你們還沒見過面對方就已經花時間瞭解你了。
那就是時間的優勢。
14:18
That's often the advantage of time.
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1412
14:19
And it's not effective if you say, "Well, hold on.
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如果你這麼說就不管用了，“哦，等等。
14:20
You're from Fargo, North Dakota. Let me see what comes up.
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你來自北達科塔的法戈。我查查看
14:26
Oh, yeah. Roger Maris was from Fargo."
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哦，對。羅傑·馬裡斯也來自法戈。”
14:28
That doesn't work. That's just annoying.
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那根本沒用。反而很令人生厭。
14:31
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:33
The great 18th-century British theologian and thinker, friend of Dr. Johnson,
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偉大的18世紀英國神學家和思想家，也是約翰遜博士的朋友，
14:39
Samuel Parr once said, "It's always better to know a thing than not to know it."
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薩繆爾帕爾曾經說道，“知道總比不知道強。”
如果我要選一個人生信條，可能就是這個。
14:45
And if I have lived my life by any kind of creed, it's probably that.
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14:50
I have always believed that the things we know -- that knowledge is an absolute good,
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我始終相信我們知道的事（知識絕對是好的）
14:55
that the things we have learned and carry with us in our heads
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我們學到的記住的東西，
14:58
are what make us who we are,
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造就了我們，
15:00
as individuals and as a species.
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不論是個人還是群種。
15:03
I don't know if I want to live in a world where knowledge is obsolete.
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我不知道我是否想生活在一個知識被淘汰的世界裡。
15:07
I don't want to live in a world where cultural literacy has been replaced
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我不想生活在一個文化素養被
15:10
by these little bubbles of specialty,
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專業泡沫所取代的世界，
15:12
so that none of us know about the common associations
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沒有人知道
把人類文明串聯起來的鏈結。
15:16
that used to bind our civilization together.
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15:18
I don't want to be the last trivia know-it-all
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我不想成為最後一個「通天曉」
15:20
sitting on a mountain somewhere,
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在山上的某一處，
15:22
reciting to himself the state capitals and the names of "Simpsons" episodes
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自言自語各州首府和辛普森一家的集名
和Abba的歌詞。
15:26
and the lyrics of Abba songs.
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我認為我們的文明必須有一個共同的文化傳承
15:30
I feel like our civilization works when this is a vast cultural heritage that we all share
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是我們大家共曉的，無需任何儀器幫助，
15:34
and that we know without having to outsource it to our devices,
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15:37
to our search engines and our smartphones.
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不需要搜索引擎或智慧型手機。
15:40
In the movies, when computers like Watson start to think,
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在影片裡，當和沃森一樣的電腦開始思考，
15:44
things don't always end well.
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並非總是美好的結果。
15:47
Those movies are never about beautiful utopias.
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那些電影沒有一部是關於美好的烏托邦的。
15:51
It's always a terminator or a matrix or an astronaut getting sucked out an airlock in "2001."
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總是關於終結者或駭客帝國
或“2001”裡宇航員被吸出密倉外。
或“2001”裡宇航員被吸出密倉外。
15:57
Things always go terribly wrong.
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事情總是變得非常糟糕。
16:00
And I feel like we're sort of at the point now
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我覺得我們現在面臨著
16:02
where we need to make that choice of what kind of future we want to be living in.
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必須選擇我們想要生活在怎樣的未來裡。
16:06
This is a question of leadership,
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這是關於領導力的問題，
16:07
because it becomes a question of who leads the future.
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因為這是關於誰能主宰未來。
16:11
On the one hand, we can choose between a new golden age
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一方面，我們可以選擇是要黃金時代裡，
16:17
where information is more universally available
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資訊比人類歷史的任何時候
在全球更容易取得，
16:21
than it's ever been in human history,
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16:22
where we all have the answers to our questions at our fingertips.
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我們要的答案就在指尖，
16:25
And on the other hand,
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還是，
16:26
we have the potential to be living in some gloomy dystopia
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我們可能要生活在陰暗的地獄
16:29
where the machines have taken over
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那裡機器主宰一切
16:31
and we've all decided it's not important what we know anymore,
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我們決定了知識已不再重要，
16:34
that knowledge isn't valuable because it's all out there in the cloud,
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知識沒有價值因為一切都在雲端，
16:37
and why would we ever bother learning anything new.
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我們爲什麽還要費心去學新知識呢。
那是給我們的兩個選擇。我知道我想選哪個。
16:43
Those are the two choices we have. I know which future I would rather be living in.
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16:46
And we can all make that choice.
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我們都可以做這樣的選擇。
16:49
We make that choice by being curious, inquisitive people who like to learn,
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我們選擇做有好奇心愛學習的人，
16:52
who don't just say, "Well, as soon as the bell has rung and the class is over,
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而不是會說“只要鈴一響一下課，
16:55
I don't have to learn anymore,"
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我就不用再學了。"
16:56
or "Thank goodness I have my diploma. I'm done learning for a lifetime.
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或是“感謝上天我終於拿到了學位。我這輩子不用再學習了。
17:00
I don't have to learn new things anymore."
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不用再學新知識了。”
17:02
No, every day we should be striving to learn something new.
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不，每一天我們都應該努力學新知識。
17:05
We should have this unquenchable curiosity for the world around us.
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我們對周遭世界應該懷著無盡的好奇心。
17:09
That's where the people you see on "Jeopardy" come from.
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「危險邊緣」上的選手就是這樣的。
17:12
These know-it-alls, they're not Rainman-style savants
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那些「通天曉」們，他們不是雨人般的學者
17:15
sitting at home memorizing the phone book.
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待在家裡背電話本。
17:17
I've met a lot of them.
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我見過很多這些通天曉。
17:19
For the most part, they are just normal folks
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基本上，他們就是普通人
17:20
who are universally interested in the world around them, curious about everything,
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對世界充滿了興趣，對一切都好奇，
17:24
thirsty for this knowledge about whatever subject.
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對各種知識求知若渴。
17:28
We can live in one of these two worlds.
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我們可以在這兩種世界中擇其一。
17:30
We can live in a world where our brains, the things that we know,
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我們可以生活在一個我們的頭腦、知識
17:33
continue to be the thing that makes us special,
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繼續造就與眾不同的我們的世界，
17:35
or a world in which we've outsourced all of that to evil supercomputers from the future like Watson.
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或者是把一切外包給沃森這樣的超級電腦的未來。
17:42
Ladies and gentlemen, the choice is yours.
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女士們，先生們，選擇權在你們手上。
17:44
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝大家。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ken Jennings - Know-it-allKen Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic American trivia game show, Jeopardy.
Why you should listen
Ken Jennings loves facts. When he was a kid he followed his parents around reciting whatever new fact he had learned -- "Haley's comet or giant squids or the size of the world's biggest pumpkin pie or whatever it was" -- to no end. And his natural curiosity paid off. Today Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the trivia game show Jeopardy, with an astounding 74 wins. (At one point Jennings also held the Guinness World Record for "Most cash won on a game show." Not bad for a trivia nerd.)
In 2011 Jennings participated in the IBM Challenge, which featured him and Jeopardy rival Brad Rutter in a match against IBM supercomputer Watson. Jennings came in second. Watson was first. But Jennings wasn't disappointed in his performance, As he wrote of his loss, "I don't have 2,880 processor cores and 15 terabytes of reference works at my disposal. ... My puny human brain, just a few bucks worth of water, salts, and proteins, hung in there just fine against a jillion-dollar supercomputer."
In 2012 Jennings published the book Because I Said So!: The Truth Behind the Myths, Tales, and Warnings Every Generation Passes Down to Its Kids.
Ken Jennings | Speaker | TED.com