TED2007
Jan Chipchase: The anthropology of mobile phones
Jan Chipchase談手機
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諾基亞的研究員Jan Chipchase研究人類與科技的互動行為，他的研究範圍遍及烏干達的鄉村及一般人的口袋裡，一路走來，他發現了許多意想不到的事情。
Jan Chipchase - User anthropologist
As Executive Creative Director of global insights for frog design, Jan Chipchase travels around the world and inside our pockets in search of behavioral patterns that will inform the design of products we don't even know we want. Yet. Full bio
As Executive Creative Director of global insights for frog design, Jan Chipchase travels around the world and inside our pockets in search of behavioral patterns that will inform the design of products we don't even know we want. Yet. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
I live and work from Tokyo, Japan.
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我住在日本東京，也在那裡工作，
00:29
And I specialize in human behavioral research,
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我專門研究人類的行為，
00:33
and applying what we learn to think about the future in different ways,
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然後將研究結果應用在思考未來，
00:39
and to design for that future.
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設計出適合未來的產品。
00:41
And you know, to be honest, I've been doing this for seven years,
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老實說，我做這一行已經七年了，
00:45
and I haven't got a clue what the future is going to be like.
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但我還是不知道未來會變成什麼樣子，
00:47
But I've got a pretty good idea
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我只知道
00:49
how people will behave when they get there.
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未來人類的行為會如何改變。
00:53
This is my office. It's out there.
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這是我的辦公室，不是在室內，
00:56
It's not in the lab,
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也不是在實驗室，
00:58
and it's increasingly in places like India, China, Brazil, Africa.
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而是在印度、中國、巴西及非洲的各個地方。
01:07
We live on a planet -- 6.3 billion people.
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地球上有63億人口，
01:10
About three billion people, by the end of this year,
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在今年底，大約會有三十億人
01:12
will have cellular connectivity.
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擁有手機，
01:15
And it'll take about another two years to connect the next billion after that.
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大約再過二年，另外十億人也會擁有手機。
01:20
And I mention this because,
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我提到這件事是因為
01:22
if we want to design for that future,
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如果我們想要設計出適合未來的產品，
01:24
we need to figure out what those people are about.
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就得先瞭解這些人的生活型態，
01:26
And that's, kind of, where I see what my job is
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這可以說是我的工作內容，
01:28
and what our team's job is.
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也是我的團隊的工作內容。
01:31
Our research often starts with a very simple question.
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我們的研究通常會以一個問題做為開場白，
01:34
So I'll give you an example. What do you carry?
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例如：你把什麼帶在身上？
01:38
If you think of everything in your life that you own,
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看看你生活週遭你所擁有的東西，
01:43
when you walk out that door,
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當你要出門的時候，
01:45
what do you consider to take with you?
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你會考慮帶什麼在身上？
01:47
When you're looking around, what do you consider?
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你看看四週，你會考慮帶什麼？
01:50
Of that stuff, what do you carry?
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在你考慮的項目裡，你真正帶了什麼出去？
01:53
And of that stuff, what do you actually use?
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在你帶出門的東西裡，你真正用的又是什麼？
01:56
So this is interesting to us,
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對我們來說，這是很有趣的問題，
01:58
because the conscious and subconscious decision process
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因為這種有意識和潛意識的決策過程，
02:02
implies that the stuff that you do take with you and end up using
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會顯示出你帶出去、真正會用到的東西，
02:05
has some kind of spiritual, emotional or functional value.
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其實具有某種程度的精神象徵、情緒連結和功能價值。
02:08
And to put it really bluntly, you know,
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說得白話一點，
02:11
people are willing to pay for stuff that has value, right?
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人類願意花錢買有價值的東西，不是嗎？
02:15
So I've probably done about five years' research
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所以，我大約花了五年的時間，
02:18
looking at what people carry.
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研究人們到底帶什麼在身上。
02:20
I go in people's bags. I look in people's pockets, purses.
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我鑽進別人的袋子裡，看看他們的皮夾、皮包，
02:24
I go in their homes. And we do this worldwide,
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或是去他們家裡，我們在世界各地進行研究，
02:28
and we follow them around town with video cameras.
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我們還用攝影機記錄研究對象在城裡活動的情形，
02:31
It's kind of like stalking with permission.
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就像事先取得對方同意所進行的跟蹤行動。
02:33
And we do all this -- and to go back to the original question,
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我們做的這一切，都是希望找到這個問題的答案：
02:37
what do people carry?
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人們帶什麼在身上？
02:40
And it turns out that people carry a lot of stuff.
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我們發現，其實大家會帶很多東西，
02:42
OK, that's fair enough.
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當然，這很合理，
02:44
But if you ask people what the three most important things that they carry are --
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但如果你問這些人，在這些東西裡，最重要的三個是什麼？
02:49
across cultures and across gender and across contexts --
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不管是什麼文化背景、性別或教育程度，
02:53
most people will say keys, money
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大部分的人會回答：鑰匙、錢，
02:56
and, if they own one, a mobile phone.
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和手機，如果他們有手機的話。
02:59
And I'm not saying this is a good thing, but this is a thing, right?
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我不是說手機是個好東西，但它確實是一個東西，對吧？
03:02
I mean, I couldn't take your phones off you if I wanted to.
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我是說，我可不能隨便就把別人的手機扒下來,
03:04
You'd probably kick me out, or something.
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你一定會踹我一腳，或打我什麼的。
03:09
OK, it might seem like an obvious thing
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我知道，這很明顯就是在手機公司
03:12
for someone who works for a mobile phone company to ask.
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工作的人會問的問題嘛...
03:14
But really, the question is, why? Right?
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但是，我真的想問為什麼會這樣？對不對？
03:16
So why are these things so important in our lives?
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為什麼這三樣東西對我們這麼重要？
03:19
And it turns out, from our research, that it boils down to survival --
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我們發現，這竟然和生存有關係--
03:23
survival for us and survival for our loved ones.
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關係到我們的生存，和我們所愛的人的生存。
03:27
So, keys provide an access to shelter and warmth --
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鑰匙可以讓我們回到溫暖的家，
03:32
transport as well, in the U.S. increasingly.
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或是讓我們開車，這在美國較為普遍。
03:35
Money is useful for buying food, sustenance,
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錢可以讓我們買食物、營養品等，
03:39
among all its other uses.
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還有其他很好用的用途。
03:40
And a mobile phone, it turns out, is a great recovery tool.
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我們發現，手機則是一個很棒的工具。
03:46
If you prefer this kind of Maslow's hierarchy of needs,
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如果你偏愛馬斯洛的需求理論，
03:49
those three objects are very good at supporting
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這三樣東西則是最能滿足
03:52
the lowest rungs in Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
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馬斯洛需求理論中的最下層需求。
03:55
Yes, they do a whole bunch of other stuff,
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沒錯，他們當然還有許多其他用途，
03:57
but they're very good at this.
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但是這三樣東西最能滿足這些需求，
03:59
And in particular, it's the mobile phone's ability
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尤其是手機，它可以讓人
04:03
to allow people to transcend space and time.
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穿越空間與時間。
04:06
And what I mean by that is, you know,
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我的意思是，
04:08
you can transcend space by simply making a voice call, right?
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只要打通電話就可以穿越空間了，不是嗎？
04:13
And you can transcend time by sending a message at your convenience,
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而只要有空的時候發個簡訊，對方有空的時候再讀簡訊，
04:16
and someone else can pick it up at their convenience.
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這不就穿越時間了嗎？
04:19
And this is fairly universally appreciated, it turns out,
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我們發現全世界的人都很愛這些功能，
04:23
which is why we have three billion plus people who have been connected.
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所以才會有超過三十億人擁有手機，
04:26
And they value that connectivity.
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他們重視這種情感的聯繫。
04:28
But actually, you can do this kind of stuff with PCs.
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但說真的，電腦也有這些功能，
04:30
And you can do them with phone kiosks.
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公共電話也可以提供通話服務，
04:33
And the mobile phone, in addition, is both personal --
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但是，手機卻與個人息息相關，
04:37
and so it also gives you a degree of privacy -- and it's convenient.
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它能提供你某種程度的隱私，而且還很方便。
04:40
You don't need to ask permission from anyone,
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你不需要別人的同意，
04:42
you can just go ahead and do it, right?
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你就可以打手機了，不是嗎？
04:46
However, for these things to help us survive,
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而要讓我們得以存活下來，
04:50
it depends on them being carried.
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我們就得把這些東西帶在身上。
04:52
But -- and it's a pretty big but -- we forget.
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但是，我得強調「但是」，我們經常會忘記帶。
04:56
We're human, that's what we do. It's one of our features.
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我們是人，會忘記很正常，這本來就是天性，
04:59
I think, quite a nice feature.
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而且我覺得還是個滿不錯的天性。
05:01
So we forget, but we're also adaptable,
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我們就是會忘記，但我們調適得很好，
05:06
and we adapt to situations around us pretty well.
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我們可以很容易地適應各種情況，
05:09
And so we have these strategies to remember,
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所以我們發展出了各種加強記憶的方法，
05:11
and one of them was mentioned yesterday.
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昨天的演講還有提到其中一種記憶方法。
05:13
And it's, quite simply, the point of reflection.
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其實很簡單，每個人都有反射動作，
05:16
And that's that moment when you're walking out of a space,
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想想看，當你離開一個地方，
05:19
and you turn around, and quite often you tap your pockets.
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你會回過頭來，摸摸自己的口袋，
05:22
Even women who keep stuff in their bags tap their pockets.
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就算是女士們把東西放在袋子裡，也會摸摸自己的口袋，
05:24
And you turn around, and you look back into the space,
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然後你回過頭去，看看剛才自己待的地方，
05:27
and some people talk aloud.
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就會發現有人在叫你，
05:29
And pretty much everyone does it at some point.
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大部分的人都有這種經驗。
05:31
OK, the next thing is -- most of you, if you have a stable home life,
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接下來，大部分的人都有穩定的家庭生活，
05:36
and what I mean is that you don't travel all the time, and always in hotels,
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我是說你並不會長時間旅行，花很多時間待在旅館裡，
05:39
but most people have what we call a center of gravity.
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大部分的人在家裡都有一個「重力中心」，
05:42
And a center of gravity is where you keep these objects.
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也就是你放這些東西的地方。
05:46
And these things don't stay in the center of gravity,
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這些東西本來不是放在這個地方的，
05:48
but over time, they gravitate there.
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但是時間一久，他們就被吸引過來了，
05:50
It's where you expect to find stuff.
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你會在這個地方找東西。
05:52
And in fact, when you're turning around,
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事實上，當你回過頭來，
05:53
and you're looking inside the house,
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在屋子裡四處搜尋，
05:55
and you're looking for this stuff,
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想要找到某樣東西時，
05:57
this is where you look first, right?
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你一定先來這裡找，對不對？
05:59
OK, so when we did this research,
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所以，當我們在進行這項研究時，
06:03
we found the absolutely, 100 percent, guaranteed way
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我們發現了一個百分之百、
06:06
to never forget anything ever, ever again.
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永遠不會再忘記任何事情的方法，
06:09
And that is, quite simply, to have nothing to remember.
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那就是：不要去記任何事情。
06:14
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:16
OK, now, that sounds like something you get on a Chinese fortune cookie, right?
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這有點像是中國的籤詩上會寫的句子，對吧？
06:19
But is, in fact, about the art of delegation.
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這其實是和授權有關係，
06:23
And from a design perspective,
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從設計者的角度來說，
06:25
it's about understanding what you can delegate to technology
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我們要去瞭解你可以授權科技幫你做什麼事，
06:30
and what you can delegate to other people.
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或是授權別人幫你做什麼事。
06:33
And it turns out, delegation -- if you want it to be --
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我們發現，授權--如果你願意的話--
06:35
can be the solution for pretty much everything,
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可以解決幾乎所有的問題，
06:39
apart from things like bodily functions, going to the toilet.
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除了個人生理需求的問題之外，像是上廁所，
06:42
You can't ask someone to do that on your behalf.
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你總不能叫別人幫你上廁所吧...
06:44
And apart from things like entertainment,
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還有娛樂層面的事情也不能，
06:47
you wouldn't pay for someone to go to the cinema for you and have fun on your behalf,
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你總不會付錢給某人，叫他去幫你看場電影吧...
06:50
or, at least, not yet.
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至少目前還沒有人這樣做，
06:52
Maybe sometime in the future, we will.
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但或許未來會有人想這麼做。
06:55
So, let me give you an example of delegation in practice, right.
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讓我舉個實際上授權的例子好了。
06:59
So this is -- probably the thing I'm most passionate about
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以下或許是我最熱衷的事情，
07:02
is the research that we've been doing on illiteracy
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我們對文盲進行研究，
07:04
and how people who are illiterate communicate.
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試圖瞭解文盲怎麼和別人溝通。
07:06
So, the U.N. estimated -- this is 2004 figures --
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聯合國估計--這是2004年的數據--
07:10
that there are almost 800 million people who can't read and write, worldwide.
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全世界大約有八億人不能讀寫，
07:14
So, we've been conducting a lot of research.
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所以我們針對這些人進行了許多研究，
07:18
And one of the things we were looking at is --
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我們研究的項目之一，
07:21
if you can't read and write,
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就是如果你不會讀寫，
07:23
if you want to communicate over distances,
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而你又想和別人遠距離溝通，
07:25
you need to be able to identify the person
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你就得先描述出那個特定的人，
07:28
that you want to communicate with.
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才能進行溝通。
07:30
It could be a phone number, it could be an e-mail address,
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有可能是透過電話號碼，也有可能是透過電郵地址，
07:32
it could be a postal address.
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或是透過真實的住宅地址，
07:33
Simple question: if you can't read and write,
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但如果你不能讀也不能寫，
07:35
how do you manage your contact information?
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要怎麼記住這些聯絡資訊？
07:37
And the fact is that millions of people do it.
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但是事實上已經有好幾百萬的人辦到了，
07:40
Just from a design perspective, we didn't really understand how they did it,
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如果只從設計的角度來看，我們完全不知道他們是怎麼做到的，
07:44
and so that's just one small example
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而這只是我們所進行的研究中，
07:46
of the kind of research that we were doing.
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其中一個很小的例子而已。
07:49
And it turns out that illiterate people are masters of delegation.
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我們發現，文盲竟然是最會授權的人，
07:52
So they delegate that part of the task process to other people,
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他們會把某些工作授權給別人去做，
07:56
the stuff that they can't do themselves.
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尤其是那些他們自己做不來的事情。
07:59
Let me give you another example of delegation.
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我再舉另一個有關授權的例子，
08:01
This one's a little bit more sophisticated,
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這個例子有點複雜，
08:03
and this is from a study that we did in Uganda
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是我們在烏干達所做的研究，
08:05
about how people who are sharing devices, use those devices.
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我們在那裡研究人們如何與別人分享共用某些設備。
08:09
Sente is a word in Uganda that means money.
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烏干達語裡，「申地」就表示錢的意思，
08:12
It has a second meaning, which is to send money as airtime. OK?
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另一個意義則是用電匯寄送金錢，清楚嗎？
08:17
And it works like this.
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事情是這樣的，
08:19
So let's say, June, you're in a village, rural village.
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舉個例子來說，瓊，你住在鄉村裡，偏僻的鄉村，
08:22
I'm in Kampala and I'm the wage earner.
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我住在坎帕拉，我在那裡打工賺錢，
08:26
I'm sending money back, and it works like this.
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如果我要把錢寄回家，我會這樣做：
08:29
So, in your village, there's one person in the village with a phone,
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在你住的村子裡，有個人有支手機，
08:32
and that's the phone kiosk operator.
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那個人就等於是個接線生，
08:33
And it's quite likely that they'd have a quite simple mobile phone as a phone kiosk.
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他拿著一支功能簡單的手機坐在店裡，
08:37
So what I do is, I buy a prepaid card like this.
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而我，我就買一張像這樣的預付卡，
08:42
And instead of using that money to top up my own phone,
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我不會幫自己的手機加值，
08:45
I call up the local village operator.
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我反而是打電話給村裡的接線生，
08:47
And I read out that number to them, and they use it to top up their phone.
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把預付卡上的號碼唸給他聽，讓他為他的手機加值，
08:51
So, they're topping up the value from Kampala,
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這樣他們就可以將我在坎帕拉買的額度，
08:53
and it's now being topped up in the village.
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加在村子裡的手機上。
08:56
You take a 10 or 20 percent commission, and then you --
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你會收取10%或20%的佣金，然後，不是你--
08:59
the kiosk operator takes 10 or 20 percent commission,
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接線生會收取10%或20%的佣金，
09:02
and passes the rest over to you in cash.
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然後把剩餘的錢轉成現金交給你。
09:06
OK, there's two things I like about this.
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這裡面有二點我想要說明一下，
09:08
So the first is, it turns anyone who has access to a mobile phone --
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第一，凡是可以撥打手機的人，
09:13
anyone who has a mobile phone --
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或是擁有手機的人，
09:15
essentially into an ATM machine.
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就表示可以操作自動提款機，
09:17
It brings rudimentary banking services to places
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他們為沒有銀行體系的鄉村，
09:20
where there's no banking infrastructure.
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建立了最基本的銀行功能。
09:22
And even if they could have access to the banking infrastructure,
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即使當地有銀行在那裡，
09:25
they wouldn't necessarily be considered viable customers,
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這些人也無法成為銀行的客戶，
09:28
because they're not wealthy enough to have bank accounts.
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因為他們根本沒錢可以存在銀行裡。
09:31
There's a second thing I like about this.
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我想說明的第二件事是，
09:34
And that is that despite all the resources at my disposal,
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即使用盡我擁有所有的資源，
09:38
and despite all our kind of apparent sophistication,
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即便我們設計出來的手機精良無比，
09:40
I know I could never have designed something as elegant
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我知道我們無論如何都無法設計出一款手機，
09:44
and as totally in tune with the local conditions as this. OK?
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能完全符合當地的生活狀況，對嗎？
09:49
And, yes, there are things like Grameen Bank and micro-lending.
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那裡的確是有鄉村銀行和小額借貸這些機構，
09:52
But the difference between this and that
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但差別在於，
09:54
is, there's no central authority trying to control this.
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這種方式是沒有人管得到的，
09:58
This is just street-up innovation.
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這是街邊的創意。
10:03
So, it turns out the street is a never-ending source of
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我們發現，這種街邊的創意，
10:06
inspiration for us.
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可以為我們提供源源不絕的靈感。
10:08
And OK, if you break one of these things here, you return it to the carrier.
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如果你弄壞了這支手機，你可以送回到電信公司，
10:12
They'll give you a new one.
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他們可能會給你一支新的手機，
10:13
They'll probably give you three new ones, right?
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或許最多會給到三支，對吧？
10:15
I mean, that's buy three, get one free. That kind of thing.
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我是說買三送一這類的事。
10:18
If you go on the streets of India and China, you see this kind of stuff.
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但如果你到印度或中國，你會在街上看到這個，
10:22
And this is where they take the stuff that breaks,
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他們會把壞掉的手機送到這裡，
10:24
and they fix it, and they put it back into circulation.
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修理一下，再拿到市面上賣。
10:30
This is from a workbench in Jilin City, in China,
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這是中國吉林的某個手機修理站，
10:34
and you can see people taking down a phone
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你可以看到有人把零件拆下來，
10:36
and putting it back together.
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再把手機組裝回去。
10:38
They reverse-engineer manuals.
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他們在做反向工程，
10:41
This is a kind of hacker's manual,
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還寫了破解手冊，
10:44
and it's written in Chinese and English.
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有中文版、英文版，
10:46
They also write them in Hindi.
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還有印地語版。
10:48
You can subscribe to these.
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你可以向他們訂購這個手冊，
10:51
There are training institutes where they're churning out people
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也可以參加他們專為培育手機維修人才
10:54
for fixing these things as well.
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所成立的訓練機構。
10:57
But what I like about this is,
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但我感興趣的是，這個過程的最終結果
11:00
it boils down to someone on the street with a small, flat surface,
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是某個人來到街上，放上一個小桌子，
11:06
a screwdriver, a toothbrush for cleaning the contact heads --
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拿一把螺絲起子、一把用來清理接頭的牙刷--
11:10
because they often get dust on the contact heads -- and knowledge.
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因為接頭常會沾到灰塵--就可以修理手機了。
11:14
And it's all about the social network of the knowledge, floating around.
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這就是這些修理手機的人的社交網絡，他們會互相傳遞新知。
11:18
And I like this because it challenges the way that we design stuff,
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我對這個很感興趣，因為這改變了我們設計手機的方式，
11:22
and build stuff, and potentially distribute stuff.
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改變我們製造手機、甚至販賣手機的方式，
11:24
It challenges the norms.
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改變了所有的常規。
11:27
OK, for me the street just raises so many different questions.
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對我來說，這些街邊生意總是引起我的好奇，
11:33
Like, this is Viagra that I bought from a backstreet sex shop in China.
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像是這罐我在中國某條後巷的情趣商店裡買到的威而剛，
11:39
And China is a country where you get a lot of fakes.
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而你知道中國有很多假貨，
11:42
And I know what you're asking -- did I test it?
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我也知道你想問什麼，你想問我用過了嗎？
11:44
I'm not going to answer that, OK.
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我才不會回答這個問題。
11:46
But I look at something like this, and I consider the implications
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但我看到的是，我看到整個購買過程的背後，
11:50
of trust and confidence in the purchase process.
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所隱藏的信任與信心問題，
11:53
And we look at this and we think, well, how does that apply,
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當我們看到這個，就會想到該怎麼運用我們看到的例子，
11:55
for example, for the design of -- the lessons from this --
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運用在我們的設計上，
11:58
apply to the design of online services, future services in these markets?
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在這些市場上該怎麼設計我們線上服務、未來該提供什麼服務？
12:05
This is a pair of underpants from --
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這件內褲是從--
12:09
(Laughter) --
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(笑聲)
12:11
from Tibet.
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從西藏買來的，
12:13
And I look at something like this, and honestly, you know,
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老實說，當我看著這件內褲，我心想，
12:16
why would someone design underpants with a pocket, right?
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怎麼會有人在內褲裡設計口袋，對吧？
12:19
And I look at something like this and it makes me question,
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看到這類的產品讓我不禁想問，
12:22
if we were to take all the functionality in things like this,
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如果我們擁有一支具有這麼多功能的手機，
12:26
and redistribute them around the body
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你會不會重新想想，該把手機
12:27
in some kind of personal area network,
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放在身上的哪一個地方？
12:29
how would we prioritize where to put stuff?
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你會把這麼重要的東西放在哪裡？
12:31
And yes, this is quite trivial, but actually the lessons from this can apply to that
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當然，這和那個不一樣，但這件內褲卻可以
12:35
kind of personal area networks.
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讓我們重新想想身上的各個放東西的地方。
12:38
And what you see here is a couple of phone numbers
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這裡所看到的是烏干達的鄉村地區，
12:41
written above the shack in rural Uganda.
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有人把電話號碼寫在門上面。
12:44
This doesn't have house numbers. This has phone numbers.
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這裡的人不一定有門牌號碼，但一定有電話號碼，
12:49
So what does it mean when people's identity is mobile?
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當我們以手機號碼做為個人識別碼時，又代表什麼？
12:55
When those extra three billion people's identity is mobile, it isn't fixed?
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另外那三十億人的身份識別是會變的，不是固定的，
13:00
Your notion of identity is out-of-date already, OK,
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你對那三十億人的印象
13:04
for those extra three billion people.
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已經落伍了，
13:07
This is how it's shifting.
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世界正在朝這方向改變。
13:09
And then I go to this picture here, which is the one that I started with.
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接下的這張照片，是我一開始的研究對象，
13:14
And this is from Delhi.
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這是在德里拍的，
13:17
It's from a study we did into illiteracy,
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那時我們在研究文盲的行為，
13:20
and it's a guy in a teashop.
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而這個人是在茶店工作，
13:22
You can see the chai being poured in the background.
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你可以看到背景裡有一些茶倒在杯子裡。
13:24
And he's a, you know, incredibly poor teashop worker,
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他是一個在茶店打工的貧苦工人，
13:28
on the lowest rungs in the society.
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生活在社會的最底階層。
13:30
And he, somehow, has the appreciation
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而他，似乎很欣賞
13:34
of the values of Livestrong.
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LiveStrong基金會的價值觀，
13:36
And it's not necessarily the same values,
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雖然不見得是相同的價值觀，
13:38
but some kind of values of Livestrong,
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但應該是多少有點認同，
13:40
to actually go out and purchase them,
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所以才會去買了這種手環，
13:43
and actually display them.
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戴在手上。
13:45
For me, this kind of personifies this connected world,
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對我來說，這種和世界接軌的個人化表彰，
13:47
where everything is intertwined, and the dots are --
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讓所有的事情都連結在一起，
13:51
it's all about the dots joining together.
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也讓所有的點連成一線。
13:54
OK, the title of this presentation is "Connections and Consequences,"
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我的演講主題是「連結與結果」，
13:58
and it's really a kind of summary of five years of trying to figure out
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其實就是把我這五年來的發現做個總結，
14:03
what it's going to be like when everyone on the planet
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我要研究的是當世界上每個人
14:06
has the ability to transcend space and time
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都可以用簡單的方法，
14:09
in a personal and convenient manner, right?
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穿越時空和別人聯絡時，會發生什麼事，對吧？
14:12
When everyone's connected.
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當我們彼此都緊密相連時，
14:14
And there are four things.
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有四件事會發生，
14:18
So, the first thing is the immediacy of ideas,
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第一件事是想法的快速傳播，
14:20
the speed at which ideas go around.
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也就是每個人的想法傳播出去的速度。
14:23
And I know TED is about big ideas,
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我知道TED是在傳播偉大的想法，
14:25
but actually, the benchmark for a big idea is changing.
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但同時 “偉大的想法” 的定義也在改變。在當今
14:30
If you want a big idea, you need to embrace everyone on the planet,
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如果你想要有偉大的想法，這個想法就得擁抱（包括）世上的每一個人，
14:34
that's the first thing.
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這是第一件事。
14:36
The second thing is the immediacy of objects.
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第二件事，則是我們可以直接快速地取得某些東西，
14:39
And what I mean by that is, as these become smaller,
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我的意思是當手機變得愈來愈小，
14:43
as the functionality that you can access through this becomes greater --
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提供的功能卻愈來愈強大時，
14:47
things like banking, identity --
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像是銀行體系、個人識別等，
14:49
these things quite simply move very quickly around the world.
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手機便會快速地在世界上流通。
14:54
And so the speed of the adoption of things
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因此，手機人口成長的速度，
14:56
is just going to become that much more rapid,
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也會變得愈來愈快，
14:58
in a way that we just totally cannot conceive,
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全世界的手機人口
15:01
when you get it to 6.3 billion
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將會快速成長到63億，
15:03
and the growth in the world's population.
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速度之快，是我們無法想像的。
15:06
The next thing is that, however we design this stuff --
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第三件事，是不論我們怎麼設計手機，
15:10
carefully design this stuff --
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不論多麼地小心設計，
15:11
the street will take it, and will figure out ways to innovate,
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這些街邊生意人都會想出更創新的方式來破解，
15:14
as long as it meets base needs --
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只要他們能迎合基層社會人士的需求，
15:17
the ability to transcend space and time, for example.
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像是穿越時空的需求這一類的。
15:20
And it will innovate in ways that we cannot anticipate.
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他們創新破解的方式是我們無法預知的，
15:25
In ways that, despite our resources, they can do it better than us.
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就算耗盡我們所有的資源，他們還是能做得比我們更好，
15:28
That's my feeling.
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這是我個人的感覺。
15:30
And if we're smart, we'll look at this stuff that's going on,
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如果我們夠聰明的話，我們應讓持續關注未來的走向，
15:34
and we'll figure out a way to enable it to inform and infuse
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我們就會想出辦法，改善我們設計的方法，
15:39
both what we design and how we design.
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設計出更好的手機。
15:42
And the last thing is that -- actually, the direction of the conversation.
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最後一件事，其實是談話內容的走向，
15:49
With another three billion people connected,
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因為另外那三十億人終究會加入我們的手機世界，
15:54
they want to be part of the conversation.
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他們也希望加入我們的談話。
15:56
And I think our relevance and TED's relevance
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而我認為，我們關注的重點，以及TED關注的重點，
16:01
is really about embracing that and learning how to listen, essentially.
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應該是要去擁抱這些人，並學習傾聽他們的聲音，
16:07
And we need to learn how to listen.
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我們真的得學會傾聽。
16:08
So thank you very, very much.
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謝謝大家，非常感謝。
16:10
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jan Chipchase - User anthropologistAs Executive Creative Director of global insights for frog design, Jan Chipchase travels around the world and inside our pockets in search of behavioral patterns that will inform the design of products we don't even know we want. Yet.
Why you should listen
Jan Chipcase can guess what's inside your bag and knows all about the secret contents of your refrigerator. It isn't a second sight or a carnival trick; he knows about the ways we think and act because he's spent years studying our behavioral patterns. He's traveled from country to country to learn everything he can about what makes us tick, from our relationship to our phones (hint: it's deep, and it's real) to where we stow our keys each night. He oversees the creative direction of frog design , an innovation firm that advises the design products for Microsoft Office, Nike, UNICEF, GE, Sephora, Gatorade and Alitalia.
Before moving to frog design, Jan's discoveries and insights helped to inspire the development of the next generations of phones and services at Nokia. As he put it, if he does his job right, you should be seeing the results of his research hitting the streets and airwaves within the next 3 to 15 years.
Jan Chipchase | Speaker | TED.com