Robert Muggah: The biggest risks facing cities -- and some solutions
روبرت موجاه: المخاطر الكبرى التي تواجهها المدن وبعض الحلول
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
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experiment in social engineering
في الهندسة الاجتماعية
urban population does --
من سكان الحضر بالعالم -
wealthier, better educated
وأكثر ثراء، وأفضل تعليمًا
are moving to cities
they're dynamic, they're democratic,
هي مفعمة بالحياة، وهي ديموقراطية،
to reactionary nationalism.
of the world's surface area,
ثلاثة بالمائة من مساحة العالم،
of our energy consumption,
من 75 بالمائة من طاقتنا،
of our greenhouse gases.
of people who die in our cities
الذين يموتون بالمدن
as a result of car accidents
cities on the planet.
في معدلات الانتحار على وجه الأرض.
have chronic water shortages --
of the known water reserves.
من مخزون المياه المعروف.
in the West and the Far East,
في الغرب والشرق الأقصى،
about the thousands of cities
population growth is set to take place.
من إجمالي النمو السكاني في المستقبل.
through the lens of nation-states.
بعين الدول الوطنية.
in a 17th-century paradigm
coming into their own,
of the world's population
closer to 70 percent.
that are beginning to rival them
of 80 billion dollars.
1.5 تريليون دولار،
than Argentina and Australia,
police departments in the world,
أقسام الشرطة بالعالم،
the largest nation-states.
their weight economically,
their political voice
a little bit about the risks
about some of the solutions.
using a big data visualization
CREATE Lab and my institute,
بجامعة (كارنيجي ميلون) ومعهدي،
not as made up of nation-states,
لا يتكون من الدول الوطنية،
of a quarter million people or more.
the more fragile that city is,
the more resilient.
the social contract comes unstuck.
of multiple kinds of risks:
cyclones and earthquakes.
are more fragile than others.
a permanent condition.
fragile cities in the world,
around the national average.
that fragility is deepening,
that are most vulnerable,
way beyond scales we've ever seen before.
أعلى كثيرًا مما رصدناه سابقًا.
they can collapse,
شديدة الضعف يمكن أن تنهار،
refugees in the world today,
لاجئ في العالم حاليًا،
since the second world war.
you might read in the news,
aren't fleeing from poor countries
into even poorer cities --
represents an agonizing story
about what's not on that map,
بما ليس على هذه الخريطة،
who have been internally displaced
in refugee-like conditions,
protection and assistance.
والمساندة الدولية المماثلة.
in its history between 2007 and 2010.
في تاريخها بين عامي 2007 و 2010.
and 85 percent of its livestock
و85 بالمائة من مخزونها الغذائي
over a million people moved into cities
of social unrest.
began cracking down,
internally displaced people,
شخص نزحوا داخليًا،
to neighboring countries like Jordan
إلى الدول المجاورة مثل الأردن
towards Western Europe.
باتجاه أوروبا الغربية.
made the perilous journey
اجتازوا الرحلة المحفوفة بالمخاطر،
and up through Turkey
into two countries, primarily:
أيضًا ارتفاع مستوى البحر
existential threats
of the world's cities are coastal.
flood-prone coastal areas.
في مناطق ساحلية منخفضة معرضة للفيضانات.
that shows sea level rise
تظهر ارتفاع مستوى البحر
that we're going to see
and 30 feet of sea level rise
المتر وتسعة أمتار
that are going to suffer --
فقط التي ستعاني
or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --
أو (جزر سليمان) أو (سري لانكا)
people or more
the face of this earth.
or they're going to die.
all the way over to the West,
على طول الطريق إلى الغرب،
في آسيا أو أفريقيا أو أمريكا الجنوبية،
in Asia or Africa or Latin America,
أن (ميامي) من أثرى المدن
is one of the wealthiest cities
الكوارث الطبيعية طوال عام 2017.
by natural disasters throughout 2017.
حجر جيري مسامي... مستنقع.
on porous limestone -- a swamp.
the water from seeping in.
and along the Gulf,
الكثير من الكوارث الطبيعية...
worst from natural crises --
و(نيو أورليانز) و(هيوستن)...
as those situations have been,
for what's to come.
to its rural hinterland
to the production of food.
of the Amazon, in Rondônia.
من الأمازون، في (روندونيا).
terrestrial carbon sinks,
every single year.
over a 30-year period.
على مدار 30 عامًا.
cleared for pasture, for cattle,
لأجل المراعي والماشية،
on a massive scale.
of forest over the last 14 years.
في الغابات خلال 14 عام الماضية.
there's not much --
فلا يوجد الكثير منها...
as the situation is -- and it is --
to the municipal level,
من المتنزهات والمحميات.
a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.
ولا يحد دائمًا من الانتهاكات،
and not always limiting encroachment,
to tamp back deforestation.
but all across the Americas,
ولكن في جميع أنحاء الأمريكتين،
and around the world.
at the highest levels,
على المستويات العليا،
of the Paris Climate Agreement,
من اتفاقية (باريس) للمناخ،
and thousands more around the world
والآلاف منها حول العالم
on so-called "undocumented migrants"
"المهاجرين غير الشرعيين"
and states sat up in defiance
to see a lot more of it,
and Latin America are urbanizing
وأمريكا اللاتينية تتمدن
the global average
on infrastructure and services.
على البنية التحتية والخدمات.
in the next 10 to 20 years,
خلال 10 إلى 20 عام القادمة،
principles of resilience into our cities.
that are emerging.
of urban planners,
principles keep coming out.
don't actually have a plan
to think ahead strategically.
بحل مشاكلهم اليومية.
from the book of Singapore.
نموذج (سنغافورة) أمر جيد.
a 50-year urban strategy
خطة لمدة 50 عامًا.
is not just the importance of continuity,
ليس فقط أهمية الاستمرار،
of autonomy and discretion.
للحكم الذاتي والاستقلال.
to be able to issue debt,
than a devolution revolution,
renegotiating the terms of the contract
global decarbonization efforts.
للتخلص من الكربون.
pricing schemes,
and bikeways and walkways
ومسارات الدراجات والمشاة،
they have to choose from.
استثنائية للاختيار من بينها.
in renewables -- in solar and wind --
في الطاقة المتجددة... الشمسية والرياح...
في أوروبا الغربية ومناطق في آسيا.
in Western Europe and parts of Asia.
right now in the world today
complete energy autonomy.
الاكتفاء الذاتي في الطاقة.
comes from Medellín,
hydroelectric plant,
its local needs,
back onto the national grid.
فائض الطاقة إلى الشبكة الوطنية.
other cities just like it.
and multi-use solutions.
المتكاملة ومتعددة الاستخدامات.
that are going to invest in solutions
ولكن تحل مشكلات متعددة.
but that solve multiple problems.
public transport.
مسألة النقل العام المتكامل.
emissions and congestion.
والازدحام بشكل كبير.
over the last 30 years,
تضاعف خلال 30 عام الماضية،
of Seoul's residents get to work
من سكان (سيول) إلى أعمالهم
public transport systems
how to build resiliently,
of Dallas-Fort Worth.
also doubled over the last 30 years.
خلال 30 سنة أيضًا.
into edge cities and suburbia
في حافة المدينة وضواحيها
على المسئولية الفردية.
to work using public transport -- five.
يذهبون إلى عملهم باستخدام النقل العام
some of the longest commuting times
pilfering, stealing,
to leapfrog to get there.
that's doing a lot of stealing,
التي تسرق باستمرار،
is only going to be enabled
from one another.
inner-city coalitions in the world today.
for nation-states.
Parliament of Mayors,
البرلمان العالمي لرؤساء البلديات،
that has gathered thousands together
المدن المتحدة والحكومات المحلية، والحاضرات
is that when cities work together,
عندما تعمل المدن معًا
but on the global stage.
ولكن على المستوى العالمي.
potentially, a vote --
on their national sovereignty,
that the local and the global
our politics accordingly.
and meet mayors and civic leaders,
رؤساء بلديات وقادة مدنيين،
enthusiasm and effectiveness
international uncertainty,
institutions are paralyzed
21st-century visionaries.
a right to -- a seat at the table.
في... مقعد على الطاولة.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Muggah - Megacities expertRobert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally.
Why you should listen
Robert Muggah drills down through shadowy data on arms trafficking, urban violence and resilience in search of answers for a rapidly urbanizing society’s most troubling questions: Why are cities so violent, and increasingly fragile? Why are conflicts within nations replacing conflicts between them? And what strategies can we implement to reduce violence?
Muggah's high-tech toolkit includes new ways for citizens to collect, collate and understand data, such as the mapping arms data (MAD) tool. As the research director of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation, he developed the tool in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and with Google Ideas, winning accolades for the transparency it brings to the debate.
Robert Muggah | Speaker | TED.com