TEDGlobal>NYC
Robert Muggah: The biggest risks facing cities -- and some solutions
羅勃莫加: 城市面對的最大風險和一些解決的方案
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羅勃莫加用很棒的互動式視覺新地圖來展示都市的脆弱，明確地傳達一個既古老又復興的想法：城市不應該只是經濟的中心，也應該是我們政治生活的基礎。莫加探究全世界，從敘利亞、新加坡到首爾以及更多的地方，提出了六項原則，說明我們如何建立更有恢復力的城市。「未來會先發生在城市裡。城市是開放的、有創意的、動態的、民主的、世界性的、迷人的。」莫加說：「它們是反動民族主義的完美解藥。」
Robert Muggah - Megacities expert
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, here's a prediction.
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以下是一個預測。
00:15
If we get our cities right,
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如果把我們的城市弄好，
00:17
we just might survive the 21st century.
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我們有可能可以撐過二十一世紀。
00:22
We get them wrong,
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如果沒弄好，
00:24
and we're done for.
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我們就完蛋了。
00:26
Cities are the most extraordinary
experiment in social engineering
experiment in social engineering
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在社會工程中，我們人類所能想出
00:29
that we humans have ever come up with.
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最不凡的實驗，就是城市。
00:32
If you live in a city,
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如果你住在城市中，
00:33
and even if you live in a slum --
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即使是在貧民區——
00:35
which 20 percent of the world's
urban population does --
urban population does --
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世界都市人口中有
20% 住在貧民區——
20% 住在貧民區——
00:38
you're likely to be healthier,
wealthier, better educated
wealthier, better educated
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比起你的鄉下表親，
你有可能會更健康、
你有可能會更健康、
00:41
and live longer than your country cousins.
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更有錢、教育水平更高、更長壽。
00:44
There's a reason why three million people
are moving to cities
are moving to cities
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每一週都有三百萬人搬入城市，
00:48
every single week.
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必有其因。
00:49
Cities are where the future happens first.
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未來會先發生在城市裡。
00:53
They're open, they're creative,
they're dynamic, they're democratic,
they're dynamic, they're democratic,
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城市是開放的、有創意的、
動態的、民主的，
動態的、民主的，
00:57
they're cosmopolitan,
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它們是世界性的，
00:58
they're sexy.
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它們很迷人。
01:00
They're the perfect antidote
to reactionary nationalism.
to reactionary nationalism.
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它們是反動民族主義的完美解藥。
01:06
But cities have a dark side.
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但城市也有黑暗面。
01:09
They take up just three percent
of the world's surface area,
of the world's surface area,
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它們佔據世界表面面積的 3%，
01:12
but they account for more than 75 percent
of our energy consumption,
of our energy consumption,
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卻消耗掉 75% 的能源。
01:15
and they emit 80 percent
of our greenhouse gases.
of our greenhouse gases.
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溫室氣體中有 80% 是城市排放的。
01:19
There are hundreds of thousands
of people who die in our cities
of people who die in our cities
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在城市中，每年有數十萬人
01:24
every single year from violence,
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死於暴力，
01:25
and millions more who are killed
as a result of car accidents
as a result of car accidents
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另外還有數百萬人因為車禍
01:29
and pollution.
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及污染而死。
01:30
In Brazil, where I live,
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我住在巴西，
地球上兇殺案最高的 50 個城市，
巴西有 25 個。
巴西有 25 個。
01:32
we've got 25 of the 50 most homicidal
cities on the planet.
cities on the planet.
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01:37
And a quarter of our cities
have chronic water shortages --
have chronic water shortages --
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四分之一的巴西城市長期缺水，
01:40
and this, in a country with 20 percent
of the known water reserves.
of the known water reserves.
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就在這個擁有 20% 的
已知儲水量的國家裡。
已知儲水量的國家裡。
01:45
So cities are dual-edged.
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所以，城市是雙刃的。
01:47
Part of the problem is that,
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有一部份的問題是，
01:49
apart from a handful of megacities
in the West and the Far East,
in the West and the Far East,
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除了西方和遠東的一些
百萬人口大城市之外，
百萬人口大城市之外，
01:52
we don't know that much
about the thousands of cities
about the thousands of cities
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我們對於在非洲、南美、亞洲的
01:55
in Africa, in Latin America, in Asia,
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數千個城市沒了解多少，
01:58
where 90 percent of all future
population growth is set to take place.
population growth is set to take place.
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但未來 90% 的人口成長
會發生在這些地方。
會發生在這些地方。
02:03
So why this knowledge gap?
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怎麼會有這知識落差？
02:05
Well, part of the problem
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其中的部份問題是我們仍然
02:06
is that we still see the world
through the lens of nation-states.
through the lens of nation-states.
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用民族國家的角度來看世界。
02:11
We're still locked
in a 17th-century paradigm
in a 17th-century paradigm
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我們還被鎖在十七世紀的範式中，
02:15
of parochial national sovereignty.
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教區國家主權的範式中。
02:18
And yet, in the 1600's,
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但，在十七世紀，
民族國家真正興起，
02:19
when nation-states were really
coming into their own,
coming into their own,
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當時只有不到 1% 的世界人口
02:22
less than one percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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02:24
resided in a city.
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住在城市裡。
02:26
Today, it's 54 percent.
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現今是 54%。
02:28
And by 2050, it will be
closer to 70 percent.
closer to 70 percent.
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到 2050 年會接近 70%。
02:33
So the world has changed.
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所以，世界改變了。
02:34
We have these 193 nation-states,
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我們有 193 個民族國家，
但輕易就有 193 個城市，
在權力和影響力上
在權力和影響力上
02:38
but we have easily as many cities
that are beginning to rival them
that are beginning to rival them
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02:41
in power and influence.
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能與它們匹敵。
02:43
Just look at New York.
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看看紐約就知道。
02:44
The Big Apple has 8.5 million people
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大蘋果（紐約）有 850 萬人，
02:47
and an annual budget
of 80 billion dollars.
of 80 billion dollars.
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年度預算為 800 億美元。
02:51
Its GDP is 1.5 trillion,
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它的 GDP 是 1.5 兆美元，
02:53
which puts it higher
than Argentina and Australia,
than Argentina and Australia,
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高於阿根廷、澳洲、
02:57
Nigeria and South Africa.
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奈及利亞、南非。
03:00
Its roughly 40,000 police officers
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它有大約四萬名警力，
03:02
means it has one of the largest
police departments in the world,
police departments in the world,
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也就是說它有世界上最大的警局，
03:05
rivaling all but
the largest nation-states.
the largest nation-states.
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不輸給最大的民族國家。
03:09
But cities like New York
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但這樣的城市，像紐約、
03:11
or São Paulo
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或聖保羅、
03:12
or Johannesburg
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或約翰尼斯堡、
03:14
or Dhaka
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或達卡、
03:15
or Shanghai --
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或上海——
03:16
they're punching above
their weight economically,
their weight economically,
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它們在經濟上的影響力
超過自身的組織規模，
超過自身的組織規模，
03:18
but below their weight politically.
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在政治上的影響力卻遠遜於後。
03:21
And that's going to have to change.
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這點得要改變才行。
03:23
Cities are going to have to find
their political voice
their political voice
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如果我們想要做出改變，
城市就得要找到它們的政治聲音。
03:25
if we want to change things.
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03:28
Now, I want to talk to you
a little bit about the risks
a little bit about the risks
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我想要和各位談一下城市
03:31
that cities are facing --
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所面臨的風險，
03:32
some of the big mega-risks.
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一些巨大風險。
03:33
I'm also going to talk to you briefly
about some of the solutions.
about some of the solutions.
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我也打算簡短談一些解決方案。
03:36
I'm going to do this
using a big data visualization
using a big data visualization
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而我要用來視覺化
呈現大量資料的方式，
呈現大量資料的方式，
03:39
that was developed with Carnegie Mellon's
CREATE Lab and my institute,
CREATE Lab and my institute,
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是由卡內基美隆大學的
CREATE 實驗室和我的學校，
CREATE 實驗室和我的學校，
03:42
along with many, many others.
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及許多其他人一同研發的。
03:44
I want you to first imagine the world
not as made up of nation-states,
not as made up of nation-states,
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首先，我想請各位想像，
世界並非由民族國家組成，
世界並非由民族國家組成，
03:47
but as made up of cities.
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而是由城市組成。
03:50
What you see here is every single city
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你們在這裡看到的是
03:52
with a population
of a quarter million people or more.
of a quarter million people or more.
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人口高於 25 萬的所有城市。
03:56
Now, without going into technical detail,
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我們就不談技術細節了，
03:58
the redder the circle,
the more fragile that city is,
the more fragile that city is,
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圓圈越紅的城市就越脆弱，
04:00
and the bluer the circle,
the more resilient.
the more resilient.
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圓圈越藍的城市適應力越強。
04:03
Fragility occurs when
the social contract comes unstuck.
the social contract comes unstuck.
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社會契約失敗時，就會脆弱。
04:07
And what we tend to see is a convergence
of multiple kinds of risks:
of multiple kinds of risks:
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而我們傾向於看到多種風險的聚合：
04:11
income inequality,
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收入不平等、
04:12
poverty,
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貧困、
04:14
youth unemployment,
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年輕人失業、
04:15
different issues around violence,
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暴力相關議題、
04:17
even exposure to droughts,
cyclones and earthquakes.
cyclones and earthquakes.
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甚至發生乾旱、暴風、
地震的可能性。
地震的可能性。
04:22
Now obviously, some cities
are more fragile than others.
are more fragile than others.
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顯然，有些城市比其他城市更脆弱。
04:26
The good news, if there is any,
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如果有好消息的話，那就是，
04:29
is that fragility is not
a permanent condition.
a permanent condition.
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脆弱不是永久的狀態。
04:31
Some cities that were once the most
fragile cities in the world,
fragile cities in the world,
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有些城市曾經是
世界上最脆弱的城市，
世界上最脆弱的城市，
比如哥倫比亞的波哥大、
04:35
like Bogotá in Colombia
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04:36
or Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,
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或墨西哥的華瑞茲城，
04:38
have now fallen more
around the national average.
around the national average.
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它們現在回到了國家平均值上下。
04:41
The bad news is
that fragility is deepening,
that fragility is deepening,
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壞消息是，脆弱正在加深中，
04:44
especially in those parts of the world
that are most vulnerable,
that are most vulnerable,
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特別是在世界上最易受傷害的區域，
04:47
in North Africa, the Middle East,
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在北非、中東、
04:49
in South Asia and Central Asia.
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南亞、中亞。
04:51
There, we're seeing fragility rising
way beyond scales we've ever seen before.
way beyond scales we've ever seen before.
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在那些地方，脆弱飛升，
是我們從未見過的規模。
是我們從未見過的規模。
04:56
When cities become too fragile
they can collapse,
they can collapse,
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當城市太脆弱，它們可能會垮掉、
05:00
tip over and fail.
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倒下、失敗。
05:01
And when that happens,
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如果發生了，
05:02
we have explosive forms of migration:
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就會有爆炸性形式的遷移：
05:05
refugees.
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難民。
05:07
There are more than 22 million
refugees in the world today,
refugees in the world today,
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現今全世界有超過 2200 萬難民，
05:12
more than at any other time
since the second world war.
since the second world war.
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是第二次世界大戰之後的最高峰。
05:17
Now, there's not one refugee crisis;
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現在有的，不是「一個」難民危機，
05:19
there are multiple refugee crises.
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而是有多重難民危機。
05:21
And contrary to what
you might read in the news,
you might read in the news,
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和你們在新聞上看到的相反，
絕大多數難民並不是從貧窮的國家
05:24
the vast majority of refugees
aren't fleeing from poor countries
aren't fleeing from poor countries
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逃到有錢的國家，
05:27
to wealthy countries,
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他們是從貧窮城市
移居到更貧窮的城市——
移居到更貧窮的城市——
05:28
they're moving from poor cities
into even poorer cities --
into even poorer cities --
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05:31
often, cities nearby.
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通常是附近的城市。
05:33
Every single dot on this map
represents an agonizing story
represents an agonizing story
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這張地圖上的每個點都代表
一個掙扎和生存的痛苦故事。
05:38
of struggle and survival.
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05:40
But I want to briefly tell you
about what's not on that map,
about what's not on that map,
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但我想要簡短告訴各位，
地圖上看不到的，
地圖上看不到的，
05:42
and that's internal displacement.
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就是國內的流離失所。
05:44
There are more than 36 million people
who have been internally displaced
who have been internally displaced
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全世界就有 3600 萬
國內流離失所者。
05:48
around the world.
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05:49
These are people living
in refugee-like conditions,
in refugee-like conditions,
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這些人的生活條件像是難民，
05:52
but lacking the equivalent international
protection and assistance.
protection and assistance.
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卻缺乏相等的國際保護和協助。
05:55
And to understand their plight,
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為了說明他們的困境，
05:57
I want to zoom in briefly on Syria.
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我想簡短針對敘利亞來談談。
06:01
Syria suffered one of the worst droughts
in its history between 2007 and 2010.
in its history between 2007 and 2010.
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2007~2010 年間，敘利亞發生了
史上最嚴重的旱災之一。
史上最嚴重的旱災之一。
06:06
More than 75 percent of its agriculture
and 85 percent of its livestock
and 85 percent of its livestock
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超過 75% 的農業和 85% 的家畜
06:10
were wiped out.
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徹底報銷了。
06:11
And in the process,
over a million people moved into cities
over a million people moved into cities
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過程中，有超過百萬人搬到城市中，
如阿勒坡、大馬士革、霍姆斯。
06:14
like Aleppo, Damascus and Homs.
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06:17
As food prices began to rise,
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隨著食物價格開始上漲，
06:19
you also had equivalent levels
of social unrest.
of social unrest.
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社會不安也會同等上漲。
06:23
And when the regime of President Assad
began cracking down,
began cracking down,
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當阿薩德總統的政權開始鎮壓，
06:26
you had an explosion of refugees.
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難民人數就爆增。
06:30
You also had over six million
internally displaced people,
internally displaced people,
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國內就有六百萬背井離鄉的人，
06:33
many of whom when on to become refugees.
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當中許多人接著成為難民。
06:35
And they didn't just move
to neighboring countries like Jordan
to neighboring countries like Jordan
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他們不只是搬到鄰近的國家，
如約旦、黎巴嫰、或土耳其。
06:39
or Lebanon or Turkey.
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06:41
They also moved up north
towards Western Europe.
towards Western Europe.
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他們也向北搬到西歐。
06:44
See, over 1.4 million Syrians
made the perilous journey
made the perilous journey
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超過 140 萬敘利亞人
踏上危險之旅，
踏上危險之旅，
06:48
through the Mediterranean
and up through Turkey
and up through Turkey
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穿過地中海，北上穿過土耳其，
06:51
to find their way
into two countries, primarily:
into two countries, primarily:
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找到方法進入兩個主要國家：
06:53
Germany and Sweden.
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德國和瑞典。
06:57
Now, climate change --
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氣候變遷，
06:58
not just drought, but also sea level rise,
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不只是旱災，還有海平面上升，
07:01
is probably one of the most severe
existential threats
existential threats
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可能是城市目前要面對的威脅當中，
07:04
that cities face.
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最嚴重的之一。
07:05
That's because two-thirds
of the world's cities are coastal.
of the world's cities are coastal.
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那是因為世界上
三分之二的城市都近海。
三分之二的城市都近海。
07:10
Over 1.5 billion people live in low-lying,
flood-prone coastal areas.
flood-prone coastal areas.
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超過 15 億人住在低窪
容易洪水泛濫的沿岸地區。
容易洪水泛濫的沿岸地區。
07:15
What you see here is a map
that shows sea level rise
that shows sea level rise
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這張地圖顯示出海平面上升
07:18
in relation to changes in temperature.
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和氣溫改變之間的關係。
07:21
Climate scientists predict
that we're going to see
that we're going to see
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氣候科學家預測，這個世紀，
07:24
anywhere between three
and 30 feet of sea level rise
and 30 feet of sea level rise
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海平面就會上升
3~30 英呎。
07:26
this side of the century.
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07:28
And it's not just low island nation-states
that are going to suffer --
that are going to suffer --
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並不只有低地勢的
島嶼民族國家會受其害——
島嶼民族國家會受其害——
07:31
Kiribati or the Maldives
or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --
or the Solomons or Sri Lanka --
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吉里巴斯共和國、馬爾地夫、
所羅門、斯里蘭卡——
所羅門、斯里蘭卡——
07:35
and they will suffer,
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它們的確會受其害，
07:36
but also massive cities like Dhaka,
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受害的還有大城市，像達卡、
07:39
like Hong Kong,
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像香港、
07:40
like Shanghai.
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像上海。
07:42
Cities of 10, 20, 30 million
people or more
people or more
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100、200、300 萬或更多人口的城市
07:45
are literally going to be wiped off
the face of this earth.
the face of this earth.
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就會被從地球表面除去。
07:48
They're going to have to adapt,
or they're going to die.
or they're going to die.
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它們得要適應，不然就死路一條。
07:52
I want to take you also
all the way over to the West,
all the way over to the West,
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我也想帶各位到西方，
07:55
because this isn't just a problem
in Asia or Africa or Latin America,
in Asia or Africa or Latin America,
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因為這並不只是亞洲、
非洲或南美的問題，
非洲或南美的問題，
07:58
this is a problem also in the West.
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這個問題在西方也會發生。
08:00
This is Miami.
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這是邁阿密。
許多人知道邁阿密
是美國最有錢的城市之一，
是美國最有錢的城市之一，
08:01
Many of you know Miami
is one of the wealthiest cities
is one of the wealthiest cities
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也是最常有洪水的城市之一。
08:04
in the United States;
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2017 年整年間痛苦經歷的
天然災害就是證據。
天然災害就是證據。
08:05
it's also one of the most flood-prone.
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08:07
That's been made painfully evident
by natural disasters throughout 2017.
by natural disasters throughout 2017.
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但邁阿密建立在
多孔石灰岩上——沼澤上。
多孔石灰岩上——沼澤上。
08:10
But Miami is built
on porous limestone -- a swamp.
on porous limestone -- a swamp.
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不可能有任何一種洪水屏障
08:13
There's no way any kind of flood barrier
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能夠防止水滲進來。
08:15
is going to keep
the water from seeping in.
the water from seeping in.
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08:17
As we scroll back,
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我們再拉回來，
08:18
and we look across the Caribbean
and along the Gulf,
and along the Gulf,
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看看加勒比海和沿海地區，
08:21
we begin to realize
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我們開始了解到，
08:22
that those cities that have suffered
worst from natural crises --
worst from natural crises --
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被自然危機摧殘得最嚴重的城市——
太子港、紐奧良、休士頓——
08:25
Port-au-Prince, New Orleans, Houston --
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08:28
as severe and as awful
as those situations have been,
as those situations have been,
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雖然那些情況非常嚴重且駭人，
08:31
they're a dress rehearsal
for what's to come.
for what's to come.
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它們只是彩排將來會發生的事而已。
08:34
No city is an island.
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沒有城市是孤島。
08:36
Every city is connected
to its rural hinterland
to its rural hinterland
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每個城市都和它的鄉村腹地
複雜地連結在一起。
08:38
in complex ways --
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08:40
often, in relation
to the production of food.
to the production of food.
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通常，連結方式和食物生產有關。
08:42
I want to take you to the northern part
of the Amazon, in Rondônia.
of the Amazon, in Rondônia.
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我想帶各位去看
亞馬遜北區的朗多尼亞州。
亞馬遜北區的朗多尼亞州。
08:46
This is one of the world's largest
terrestrial carbon sinks,
terrestrial carbon sinks,
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它是世界最大的地球碳阱之一，
每年會處理上百萬的碳。
08:49
processing millions of carbon
every single year.
every single year.
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08:51
What you see here is a single road
over a 30-year period.
over a 30-year period.
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這裡看到的是三十年間唯一的道路。
08:54
On either side you see land being
cleared for pasture, for cattle,
cleared for pasture, for cattle,
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兩側可以看到土地被清空
以用來放牧牛群，
以用來放牧牛群，
08:58
but also for soy and sugar production.
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也用來生產大豆和糖。
09:00
You're seeing deforestation
on a massive scale.
on a massive scale.
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你們看到的是大規模的森林砍伐。
09:04
The red area here implies a net loss
of forest over the last 14 years.
of forest over the last 14 years.
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紅色區域表示過去
十四年間森林的淨損失。
十四年間森林的淨損失。
09:09
The blue, if you could see it --
there's not much --
there's not much --
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如果看得到藍色，並不多，
09:12
implies there's been an incremental gain.
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那表示森林有所增加。
09:15
Now, as grim and gloomy
as the situation is -- and it is --
as the situation is -- and it is --
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雖然情況的確無情又陰暗，
09:19
there is a little bit of hope.
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還是有一線希望。
09:21
See, the Brazilian government,
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巴西政府，
09:22
from the national to the state
to the municipal level,
to the municipal level,
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全國層級、州層級，到市層級，
09:25
has also introduced a whole range --
a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.
a lattice -- of parks and protected areas.
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推行了一系列格狀的公園和保護區。
09:29
And while not perfect,
and not always limiting encroachment,
and not always limiting encroachment,
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雖不完美，未必總是能限制住侵蝕，
09:32
they have served
to tamp back deforestation.
to tamp back deforestation.
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它們多少有助於遏制砍伐森林。
09:35
The same applies not just in Brazil
but all across the Americas,
but all across the Americas,
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不只在巴西如此，還橫跨整個美洲，
09:39
into the United States, Canada
and around the world.
and around the world.
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到美國、加拿大，及全世界。
09:41
So let's talk about solutions.
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所以，咱們來談談解決方案。
09:44
Despite climate denial
at the highest levels,
at the highest levels,
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雖然最高層否認全球暖化，
09:48
cities are taking action.
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城市有在採取行動。
09:50
You know, when the US pulled out
of the Paris Climate Agreement,
of the Paris Climate Agreement,
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3419
當美國退出巴黎氣候協議，
09:53
hundreds of cities in the United States
and thousands more around the world
and thousands more around the world
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美國數百個城市及世界數千個城市
09:57
doubled down on their climate commitments.
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2077
將它們的氣候承諾加碼了。
10:00
(Applause)
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3614
（掌聲）
10:06
And when the White House cracked down
on so-called "undocumented migrants"
on so-called "undocumented migrants"
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4437
當白宮取締在庇護城市中所謂的
10:11
in sanctuary cities,
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「無證移民」，
10:12
hundreds of cities and counties
and states sat up in defiance
and states sat up in defiance
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數百個城市、郡、州都起來反抗，
10:15
and refused to enact that order.
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拒絕執行該法令。
10:17
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
10:22
So cities are and can take action.
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2714
城市有，並且能夠採取行動。
10:25
But we're going to need
to see a lot more of it,
to see a lot more of it,
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但我們得要看到
更多城市這麼做才行，
更多城市這麼做才行，
10:28
especially in the global south.
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特別是在南半球。
10:30
You see, parts of Africa
and Latin America are urbanizing
and Latin America are urbanizing
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非洲和南美的一些區域在工業化前
10:34
before they industrialize.
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就已經都市化了。
10:35
They're growing at three times
the global average
the global average
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它們的人口成長
比全球平均高了三倍。
10:38
in terms their population.
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10:40
And this is putting enormous strain
on infrastructure and services.
on infrastructure and services.
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3424
這樣會讓基礎建設
及服務有很大的負擔。
及服務有很大的負擔。
10:44
Now, there is a golden opportunity.
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現在有個黃金級的機會。
10:48
It's a small opportunity but a golden one:
in the next 10 to 20 years,
in the next 10 to 20 years,
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這機會不大，但是黃金級的：
在接下來十到二十年，
在接下來十到二十年，
10:51
to really start designing in
principles of resilience into our cities.
principles of resilience into our cities.
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真正開始將恢復力
設計到我們的城市中。
設計到我們的城市中。
10:55
There's not one single way of doing this,
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沒有單一方法可以做到這一點，
10:57
but there are a number of ways
that are emerging.
that are emerging.
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但有許多方法正在興起。
11:00
And I've spoken with hundreds
of urban planners,
of urban planners,
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我已經和數百位都市規劃者、
11:02
development specialists,
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開發專家、
建築師、民權運動人士談過。
11:04
architects and civic activists,
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2368
11:06
and a number of recurring
principles keep coming out.
principles keep coming out.
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在這些談話中，
不斷會重覆聽到一些原則。
不斷會重覆聽到一些原則。
11:09
I just want to pass on six.
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在此我只想傳遞六項。
11:12
First: cities need a plan
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第一，城市需要計畫
11:15
and a strategy to implement it.
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以及執行計畫的策略。
11:16
I mean, it sounds crazy,
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1219
這聽起來很瘋狂，
11:18
but the vast majority of world cities
don't actually have a plan
don't actually have a plan
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但世界上絕大多數的城市
實際上沒有計畫或遠景。
11:21
or a vision.
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1155
它們太忙著處理每天的問題，
11:22
They're too busy putting out daily fires
to think ahead strategically.
to think ahead strategically.
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3334
沒時間策略性地思考未來。
每個城市都想要有創意、
11:25
I mean, every city wants to be creative,
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2009
11:27
happy, liveable, resilient --
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快樂、適合居住、有恢復力——
11:30
who doesn't?
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誰不想要？
11:31
The challenge is, how do you get there?
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挑戰是，要怎麼做到？
11:33
And urban governance plays a key role.
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都市政府扮演關鍵的角色。
11:35
You could do worse than take a page
from the book of Singapore.
from the book of Singapore.
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3024
可能你做得比模仿新加坡更糟。
1971 年，新加坡定了
一項五十年的策略，
一項五十年的策略，
11:38
In 1971, Singapore set
a 50-year urban strategy
a 50-year urban strategy
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11:42
and renews it every five years.
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2318
每五年就將它更新一次。
11:45
What Singapore teaches us
is not just the importance of continuity,
is not just the importance of continuity,
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新加坡不只教我們持續性的重要，
11:48
but also the critical role
of autonomy and discretion.
of autonomy and discretion.
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3247
還有自治和考慮周到的關鍵角色。
11:52
Cities need the power
to be able to issue debt,
to be able to issue debt,
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3025
城市需要有權力才能發行債券、
11:55
to raise taxes,
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加稅、
11:57
to zone effectively,
255
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1151
有效分區、
11:58
to build affordable housing.
256
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建立負擔得起的住房。
12:01
What cities need is nothing less
than a devolution revolution,
than a devolution revolution,
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城市需要的是權力下放的革命，
12:05
and this is going to require
renegotiating the terms of the contract
renegotiating the terms of the contract
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3216
這就需要重新協商
和民族國家的合約條款。
12:08
with a nation-state.
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12:10
Second:
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1274
第二：
12:12
you've got to go green.
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綠化是必要的。
12:13
Cities are already leading
global decarbonization efforts.
global decarbonization efforts.
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城市已經努力在帶領進行全球減碳。
12:16
They're investing in congestion
pricing schemes,
pricing schemes,
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2262
它們投資擁塞定價法、
12:19
in climate reduction emission targets,
264
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2325
排放減量的氣候目標、
12:21
in biodiversity, in parks
and bikeways and walkways
and bikeways and walkways
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3960
生物多樣性、公園、
自行車道、步道、
自行車道、步道、
12:25
and everything in between.
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1259
以及中間的一切。
12:26
There's an extraordinary menu of options
they have to choose from.
they have to choose from.
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3153
它們得從多到嚇死人的選項中選擇。
其中一件很棒的事是城市已經
12:29
One of the great things is,
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1294
12:31
cities are already investing heavily
in renewables -- in solar and wind --
in renewables -- in solar and wind --
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3521
大量投資於可再生的能源——
太陽能、風力——
太陽能、風力——
不只是北美，特別還有
西歐和部份亞洲地區。
西歐和部份亞洲地區。
12:34
not just in North America, but especially
in Western Europe and parts of Asia.
in Western Europe and parts of Asia.
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3733
世界上現在有超過八千個城市
12:38
There are more than 8,000 cities
right now in the world today
right now in the world today
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有太陽能發電廠。
12:41
with solar plants.
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1170
有三百個城市宣佈
已經完成了能源自主。
已經完成了能源自主。
12:42
There are 300 cities that have declared
complete energy autonomy.
complete energy autonomy.
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4199
12:46
One of my favorite stories
comes from Medellín,
comes from Medellín,
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2403
我最喜歡的故事之一，來自麥德林，
12:49
which invested in a municipal
hydroelectric plant,
hydroelectric plant,
275
757335
3133
麥德林投資了一座
該市的水力發電廠，
該市的水力發電廠，
12:52
which doesn't only service
its local needs,
its local needs,
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2228
它不只滿足當地的需求，
12:54
but allows the city to sell excess energy
back onto the national grid.
back onto the national grid.
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3323
還讓該市能把多餘的能源
販售回去給全國電力網。
販售回去給全國電力網。
且它並不孤單。
12:58
And it's not alone.
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1168
還有上千個像這樣的城市。
12:59
There are a thousand
other cities just like it.
other cities just like it.
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2536
13:02
Third: invest in integrated
and multi-use solutions.
and multi-use solutions.
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3790
第三：投資在整合
和多用途的解決方案上。
和多用途的解決方案上。
13:06
The most successful cities are those
that are going to invest in solutions
that are going to invest in solutions
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最成功的城市投資的解決方案
不只解決單一問題，
13:10
that don't solve just one problem,
but that solve multiple problems.
but that solve multiple problems.
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3235
而是解決多個問題。
13:13
Take the case of integrated
public transport.
public transport.
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3202
用整合大眾運輸為例。
13:17
When done well --
284
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1314
做得好的時候——
13:19
rapid bus transit,
285
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1385
快速巴士運輸、
13:20
light rail,
286
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1343
輕軌鐵路、
13:21
bikeways, walkways, boatways --
287
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2405
自行車道、步道、船道——
13:24
these can dramatically reduce
emissions and congestion.
emissions and congestion.
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3346
這些能夠明顯減少排放和擁塞。
13:28
But they can do a lot more than that.
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1857
但它們能做的不只如此。
它們能改善公眾健康。
13:30
They can improve public health.
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13:31
They can reduce dispersion.
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它們能減少分散。
13:33
They can even increase safety.
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它們能增加安全性。
13:36
A great example of this comes from Seoul.
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一個很好的例子是首爾。
13:38
You see, Seoul's population doubled
over the last 30 years,
over the last 30 years,
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過去三十年間，
首爾的人口增加一倍，
首爾的人口增加一倍，
13:42
but the footprint barely changed.
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2196
但足跡幾乎沒變。
13:44
How?
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怎麼可能？
13:45
Well, 75 percent
of Seoul's residents get to work
of Seoul's residents get to work
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75% 的首爾居民去上班的方式，
13:48
using what's been described as
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816637
1439
用的是被稱為
13:50
one of the most extraordinary
public transport systems
public transport systems
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世界上最不凡的
大眾交通運輸系統之一。
13:52
in the world.
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首爾過去是個汽車國家。
13:53
And Seoul used to be car country.
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13:56
Next, fourth:
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1438
接著，第四：
13:59
build densely but also sustainably.
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建造要密集但也要永續。
14:03
The death of all cities is the sprawl.
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無計畫地擴展就是城市的死亡，
城市得知道如何以
有恢復力的方式來建造，
有恢復力的方式來建造，
14:06
Cities need to know
how to build resiliently,
how to build resiliently,
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2175
14:08
but also in a way that's inclusive.
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同時也要能包括一切。
14:11
This is a picture right here
of Dallas-Fort Worth.
of Dallas-Fort Worth.
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3751
這張照片是達拉斯-沃斯堡。
14:14
And what you see is its population
also doubled over the last 30 years.
also doubled over the last 30 years.
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4314
可以看到，這裡的人口
在過去三十年間增加一倍。
在過去三十年間增加一倍。
14:19
But as you can see, it spread
into edge cities and suburbia
into edge cities and suburbia
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但也可以看到
人口散佈至邊緣城市及郊區，
人口散佈至邊緣城市及郊區，
14:22
as far as the eye can see.
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1610
肉眼看到的盡是如此。
14:25
Cities need to know when not to build,
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2210
城市得要知道何時不要建造，
14:27
so as not to reproduce urban sprawl
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才不會再重現城市蔓延
14:29
and slums of downward accountability.
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857710
1940
和貧民窟的問責制。
14:32
The problem with Dallas-Forth Worth is
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860377
1960
達拉斯-沃斯堡的問題是
14:34
just five percent of its residents get
to work using public transport -- five.
to work using public transport -- five.
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4757
只有 5% 的居民搭乘
大眾運輸去上班—— 5%。
大眾運輸去上班—— 5%。
14:39
Ninety-five percent use cars,
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1458
95% 開車，
14:40
which partly explains why it's got
some of the longest commuting times
some of the longest commuting times
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3415
這就是為什麼
它有北美最長通勤時間的部份原因。
14:44
in North America.
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1301
14:45
Singapore, by contrast, got it right.
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2065
相對的，新加坡就做對了。
14:47
They built vertically
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1167
他們垂直建造，
14:48
and built in affordable housing to boot.
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876668
1963
此外還建造了可負擔得起的住房。
14:51
Fifth: steal.
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1843
第五：偷。
14:54
The smartest cities are nicking,
pilfering, stealing,
pilfering, stealing,
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2617
最聰明的城市會偷，
左偷、右偷、中間偷，
14:57
left, right and center.
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1160
沒有時間可浪費。
14:58
They don't have time to waste.
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1484
他們今日就需要明日的科技，
15:00
They need tomorrow's technology today,
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888320
1983
15:02
and they're going
to leapfrog to get there.
to leapfrog to get there.
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890327
2005
且他們要超前跳到那裡。
15:04
This is New York,
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1155
這是紐約，
15:05
but it's not just New York
that's doing a lot of stealing,
that's doing a lot of stealing,
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2834
但並不是只有紐約常常在偷，
新加坡、首爾、麥德林都偷。
15:08
it's Singapore, it's Seoul, it's Medellín.
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2064
15:10
The urban renaissance
is only going to be enabled
is only going to be enabled
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2337
若要讓都市復興，
15:12
when cities start borrowing
from one another.
from one another.
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2175
城市就要彼此互借。
最後：用全球聯盟的方式做事。
15:15
And finally: work in global coalitions.
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2525
15:18
You know, there are more than 200
inner-city coalitions in the world today.
inner-city coalitions in the world today.
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906008
3640
現今世界上有
超過 200 個內城市聯盟。
超過 200 個內城市聯盟。
15:21
There are more city coalitions
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1547
城市聯盟的數目
15:23
than there are coalitions
for nation-states.
for nation-states.
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2334
比民族國家聯盟還多。
15:26
Just take a look at the Global
Parliament of Mayors,
Parliament of Mayors,
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914272
2503
看看「全球市長議會」，
是已故的班傑明·巴布爾所創立，
15:28
set up by the late Ben Barber,
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1449
15:30
who was driving an urban rights movement.
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2041
他過去推動城市權利運動。
15:32
Or consider the C40,
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1494
或是想想 C40，
15:33
a marvelous network of cities
that has gathered thousands together
that has gathered thousands together
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3411
這是個驚人的城市網，
將數千個城市聚集在一起，
將數千個城市聚集在一起，
15:37
to deliver clean energy.
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1437
來提供乾淨能源。
15:39
Or look at the World Economic Forum,
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927092
1763
或是看看世界經濟論壇，
15:40
which is developing smart city protocols.
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928879
1997
它在發展智慧城市協定。
15:42
Or the 100 Resilient Cities initiative,
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930900
1882
或 100 恢復力城市方案，
15:44
which is leading a resilience revival.
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932806
2003
它在引領恢復力的重振。
地方政府永續發展理事會、
城市與地方政府聯盟、大都會——
城市與地方政府聯盟、大都會——
15:47
ICLEI, UCLG, Metropolis --
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935945
3481
15:51
these are the movements of the future.
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2677
這些是未來的運動。
15:54
What they all realize
is that when cities work together,
is that when cities work together,
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2786
它們通通了解一點，當城市合作時，
15:56
they can amplify their voice,
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1857
就能放大它們的音量，
15:59
not just on the national stage,
but on the global stage.
but on the global stage.
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2995
不只在國家舞台上，
也在世界舞台上。
也在世界舞台上。
16:02
And with a voice comes,
potentially, a vote --
potentially, a vote --
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2903
有了聲音，就有可能有選票——
16:05
and then maybe even a veto.
353
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1769
接著，也許甚至有否決權。
16:09
When nation-states default
on their national sovereignty,
on their national sovereignty,
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3491
當民族國家不履行它們的國家主權，
16:12
cities have to step up.
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1882
城市就得要站出來。
16:14
They can't wait.
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1152
它們不能等待。
16:15
And they don't need to ask for permission.
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2182
且它們不需要尋求許可。
16:17
They can exert their own sovereignty.
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965993
2351
它們行使它們自己的主權。
16:21
They understand
that the local and the global
that the local and the global
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969037
2131
它們了解，地方和全球已經
16:23
have really, truly come together,
360
971192
1602
真正結合在一起了，
我們住在一個全球的地方性世界，
16:24
that we live in a global, local world,
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972818
1856
16:26
and we need to adjust
our politics accordingly.
our politics accordingly.
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974698
2649
我們需要相應地調整我們的政治。
16:29
As I travel around the world
and meet mayors and civic leaders,
and meet mayors and civic leaders,
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977371
3108
我環遊世界會見市長和公民領袖，
16:32
I'm amazed by the energy,
enthusiasm and effectiveness
enthusiasm and effectiveness
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980503
3326
他們帶到工作上的
能量、熱情、和效益
能量、熱情、和效益
16:35
they bring to their work.
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983853
1811
讓我驚嘆不已。
16:37
They're pragmatists.
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985688
1484
他們是實用主義者。
16:39
They're problem-solvers.
367
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1534
他們是解決問題的人。
16:40
They're para-diplomats.
368
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1469
他們是平行外交官。
16:43
And in this moment of extraordinary
international uncertainty,
international uncertainty,
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3230
在這個時刻，
國際上的不確定性很高，
國際上的不確定性很高，
16:47
when our multilateral
institutions are paralyzed
institutions are paralyzed
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995116
2508
我們的多邊制度都癱瘓了，
16:49
and our nation-states are in retreat,
371
997648
2069
我們的民族國家在撤退，
16:51
cities and their leaders are our new
21st-century visionaries.
21st-century visionaries.
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999741
4717
城市和其領導人就是我們
新的二十一世紀前瞻者。
新的二十一世紀前瞻者。
16:57
They deserve -- no, they have
a right to -- a seat at the table.
a right to -- a seat at the table.
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他們應該——不，他們有權——
取得一席之地。
取得一席之地。
17:01
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:03
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Muggah - Megacities expertRobert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally.
Why you should listen
Robert Muggah drills down through shadowy data on arms trafficking, urban violence and resilience in search of answers for a rapidly urbanizing society’s most troubling questions: Why are cities so violent, and increasingly fragile? Why are conflicts within nations replacing conflicts between them? And what strategies can we implement to reduce violence?
Muggah's high-tech toolkit includes new ways for citizens to collect, collate and understand data, such as the mapping arms data (MAD) tool. As the research director of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation, he developed the tool in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and with Google Ideas, winning accolades for the transparency it brings to the debate.
Robert Muggah | Speaker | TED.com