TEDGlobal 2005
Peter Diamandis: Our next giant leap
Peter Diamandis o našem sljedećem divovskom skoku
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Peter Diamandis kaže kako je naš moralni imperativ nastaviti istraživanje svemira - i govori nam kako ćemo, s nagradom X i drugim inicijativama, postići upravo to.
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
My mission in life since I was a kid was,
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Moj je zadatak u životu, još iz djetinjstva,
00:21
and is, to take the rest of you into space.
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da vas ostale odvedem u svemir.
00:24
It's during our lifetime that we're going to take the Earth,
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Još za naših života ćemo krenuti sa Zemlje,
00:28
take the people of Earth and transition off, permanently. And that's exciting.
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poslati ljude sa Zemlje i izvršiti tranziciju, trajno. To je uzbudljivo.
00:32
In fact, I think it is a moral imperative
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Zapravo, mislim kako imamo moralni imperativ
00:34
that we open the space frontier.
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otvoriti svemirsku granicu.
00:37
You know, it's the first time that we're going to have a chance
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Znate, to je prvi puta da ćemo dobiti priliku
00:39
to have planetary redundancy,
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imati planetarno obilje,
00:41
a chance to, if you would, back up the biosphere.
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priliku da, ako hoćete, napravimo kopiju biosfere.
00:44
And if you think about space,
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A ako pomislite na svemir,
00:47
everything we hold of value on this planet --
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sve što smatramo vrijednim na ovom planetu --
00:50
metals and minerals and real estate and energy -- is in infinite quantities in space.
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metali i minerali i zemljište i energija – u svemiru se nalazi u beskrajnim količinama.
00:54
In fact, the Earth is a crumb in a supermarket filled with resources.
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Zemlja je mrvica u supermarketu ispunjenom resursima.
00:59
The analogy for me is Alaska. You know, we bought Alaska.
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Za mene, analogija je Aljaska. Znate, kupili smo Aljasku.
01:02
We Americans bought Alaska in the 1850s. It's called Seward's folly.
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Mi, Amerikanci smo kupili Aljasku 1850. To je nazvano Sewardova glupost.
01:06
We valued it as the number of seal pelts we could kill.
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Vrednovali smo je prema broju tuljanovih koža koje smo mogli dobiti.
01:10
And then we discovered these things -- gold and oil and fishing and timber --
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A zatim smo otkrili drugo – zlato i naftu i ribu i drvo --
01:14
and it became, you know, a trillion-dollar economy,
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i ona je postala ekonomija od bilijun dolara,
01:17
and now we take our honeymoons there. The same thing will happen in space.
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a danas ondje idemo na medeni mjesec. Isto će biti i u svemiru.
01:20
We are on the verge of the greatest exploration
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Na pragu smo najvećih istraživanja
01:23
that the human race has ever known.
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koje je ljudska vrsta ikada vidjela.
01:25
We explore for three reasons,
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Istražujemo iz tri razloga,
01:27
the weakest of which is curiosity.
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od kojih je znatiželja najslabiji.
01:29
You know, it's funded NASA's budget up until now.
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Ona je do sada punila NASA-in proračun.
01:33
Some images from Mars, 1997.
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Slike s Marsa, 1997.
01:36
In fact, I think in the next decade, without any question,
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Mislim da ćemo u sljedećem desetljeću, bez sumnje,
01:38
we will discover life on Mars and find that it is literally ubiquitous
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pronaći život na Marsu i otkriti da je doslovno sveprisutan
01:42
under the soils and different parts of that planet.
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pod tlom i raznim dijelovima planeta.
01:45
The stronger motivator, the much stronger motivator, is fear.
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Najjači motivator, mnogo jači motivator je strah.
01:48
It drove us to the moon. We -- literally in fear -- with the Soviet Union
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On nas je odveo na Mjesec. Utrkivali smo se – doslovno u strahu – sa Sovjetskim Savezom
01:52
raced to the moon. And we have these huge rocks,
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do Mjeseca. I imamo ove velike stijene,
01:56
you know, killer-sized rocks in the hundreds of thousands or millions out there,
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stotine tisuća i milijune ubojitih stijena u svemiru,
02:01
and while the probability is very small,
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i premda je vjerojatnost vrlo mala,
02:03
the impact, figured in literally,
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posljedice ako jedna od njih
02:05
of one of these hitting the Earth is so huge
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pogodi Zemlju su tako ogromne
02:08
that to spend a small fraction looking, searching,
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da utrošiti malo na promatranje, potragu,
02:11
preparing to defend, is not unreasonable.
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pripremu na obranu nije nerazumno.
02:13
And of course, the third motivator,
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I, naravno, treći motivator,
02:15
one near and dear to my heart as an entrepreneur, is wealth.
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onaj blizak mojem poduzetničkom srcu, je bogatstvo.
02:19
In fact, the greatest wealth. If you think about these other asteroids,
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Najveće bogatstvo. Ako pomislite na te asteroide,
02:23
there's a class of the nickel iron,
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jedna vrsta je nikal,
02:25
which in platinum-group metal markets alone
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koja bi samo na tržištima platine
02:27
are worth something like 20 trillion dollars,
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vrijedila oko 20 bilijuna dolara,
02:29
if you can go out and grab one of these rocks.
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ako biste mogli zgrabiti jednu od tih stijena.
02:31
My plan is to actually buy puts on the precious metal market,
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Moj je plan kupiti opcije na tržištu plemenitih metala,
02:34
and then actually claim that I'm going to go out and get one.
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i zatim objaviti da ću poći i donijeti jednu.
02:36
And that will fund the actual mission to go and get one.
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A to će financirati pravu misiju u kojoj ćemo to napraviti.
02:39
But fear, curiosity and greed have driven us.
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Strah, znatiželja i gramzivost nas potiču.
02:42
And for me, this is -- I'm the short kid on the right.
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Meni je to – Ja sam niski dečko s desne strane.
02:46
This was -- my motivation was actually during Apollo.
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To je bilo – moju je motivaciju potaknuo Apollo.
02:50
And Apollo was one of the greatest motivators ever.
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Apollo je jedan od najboljih poticaja ikada.
02:52
If you think about what happened at the turn of -- early 1960s,
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Ako pomislite što se događalo na prijelazu – u ranim 60-tima,
02:58
on May 25, JFK said, "We're going to go to the moon."
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25. svibnja, Kennedy je rekao, "Idemo na Mjesec."
03:02
And people left their jobs and they went to obscure locations
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I ljudi su ostavili poslove i pošli na skrivene lokacije
03:05
to go and be part of this amazing mission.
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kako bi sudjelovali u tom zapanjujućem zadatku.
03:08
And we knew nothing about going to space.
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A nismo znali ništa o putovanju u svemir.
03:10
We went from having literally put Alan Shepard in suborbital flight
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Prešli smo put od slanja Alana Sheparda u podorbitu
03:13
to going to the moon in eight years,
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do leta na Mjesec u osam godina,
03:15
and the average age of the people that got us there was 26 years old.
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a prosječna dob ljudi koji su na poslali ondje je bila 26 godina.
03:21
They didn't know what couldn't be done.
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Oni nisu znali što nije moguće.
03:22
They had to make up everything.
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Morali su sve izmisliti.
03:25
And that, my friend, is amazing motivation.
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I to je, prijatelju, nevjerojatna motivacija.
03:27
This is Gene Cernan, a good friend of mine, saying,
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Ovo je Gene Cernan, moj dobar prijatelj koji kaže,
03:30
"If I can go to the moon" -- this is the last human on the moon so far --
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"Ako mogu otići na Mjesec" – on je posljednji čovjek na Mjesecu, zasad --
03:34
"nothing, nothing is impossible." But of course,
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"ništa, ništa nije nemoguće." Ali, naravno,
03:37
we've thought about the government always as the person taking us there.
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uvijek smo mislili kako će nas vlada onamo odvesti.
03:41
But I put forward here, the government is not going to get us there.
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Ali sada tvrdim, vlada nas neće ondje odvesti.
03:45
The government is unable to take the risks required to open up this precious frontier.
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Vlada nije u stanju poduzeti rizik potreban da se otvori ta dragocjena granica.
03:50
The shuttle is costing a billion dollars a launch.
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Trošak šatla je milijardu dolara po lansiranju.
03:52
That's a pathetic number. It's unreasonable.
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To je tragičan broj. To je nerealno.
03:55
We shouldn't be happy in standing for that.
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Ne bismo se trebali pomiriti s time.
03:58
One of the things that we did with the Ansari X PRIZE
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S nagradom Ansari X, prihvatili smo izazov
04:00
was take the challenge on that risk is OK, you know.
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prihvaćajući i rizik, znate.
04:04
As we are going out there and taking on a new frontier,
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Dok idemo onamo i osvajamo novu granicu,
04:07
we should be allowed to risk.
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moramo moći riskirati.
04:09
In fact, anyone who says we shouldn't, you know,
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Svakoga tko kaže da ne trebamo, znate,
04:12
just needs to be put aside, because, as we go forward,
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treba gurnuti u stranu, jer dok napredujemo,
04:16
in fact, the greatest discoveries we will ever know is ahead of us.
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najveća otkrića koja ćemo ikada imati su pred nama.
04:20
The entrepreneurs in the space business are the furry mammals,
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Poduzetnici u svemirskom biznisu su sisavci krznaši,
04:23
and clearly the industrial-military complex --
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a vojno-industrijski kompleks, očito --
04:25
with Boeing and Lockheed and NASA -- are the dinosaurs.
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Boeing, Lockheed i NASA – su dinosauri.
04:29
The ability for us to access these resources
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Naša sposobnost da steknemo te resurse
04:32
to gain planetary redundancy --
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steknemo planetarno obilje --
04:34
we can now gather all the information, the genetic codes,
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sada možemo skupiti sve informacije, genetske kodove,
04:37
you know, everything stored on our databases,
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sve što je pohranjeno u našim bazama podataka,
04:39
and back them up off the planet,
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i pohraniti kopiju izvan ovog planeta,
04:41
in case there would be one of those disastrous situations.
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za slučaj da dođe do neke od tih katastrofa.
04:45
The difficulty is getting there, and clearly, the cost to orbit is key.
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Teškoća je u odlasku u svemir, a trošak dolaska u orbitu je ključan.
04:50
Once you're in orbit, you are two thirds of the way, energetically, to anywhere --
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Jednom kad ste u orbiti, prevalili ste 2/3 puta za bilo kamo, energetski gledano --
04:53
the moon, to Mars. And today,
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do Mjeseca, do Marsa. Danas,
04:56
there's only three vehicles -- the U.S. shuttle, the Russian Soyuz
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postoje samo 3 letjelice – američki Šatl, ruski Soyuz
05:00
and the Chinese vehicle -- that gets you there.
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i kineska letjelica – koje vas vode onamo.
05:02
Arguably, it's about 100 million dollars a person on the space shuttle.
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Povesti se šatlom osobu košta oko 100 milijuna dolara.
05:07
One of the companies I started, Space Adventures, will sell you a ticket.
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Jedna od mojih kompanija, Space Adventures, prodat će vam kartu.
05:10
We've done two so far. We'll be announcing two more on the Soyuz
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Imali smo već dva leta. Najavit ćemo još dva na Soyuzu,
05:14
to go up to the space station for 20 million dollars.
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let do svemirske postaje za 20 milijuna dolara.
05:17
But that's expensive and to understand what the potential is --
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Ali to je skupo i da bismo razumjeli potencijal --
05:21
(Laughter) --
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(Smijeh) --
05:23
it is expensive. But people are willing to pay that!
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skupo je. Ali ljudi su spremni toliko platiti!
05:26
You know, one -- we have a very unique period in time today.
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Danas živimo u jedinstvenom vremenu.
05:29
For the first time ever, we have enough wealth
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Po prvi puta imamo dovoljno bogatstva
05:31
concentrated in the hands of few individuals
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koncentriranog u rukama nekolicine pojedinaca
05:33
and the technology accessible
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i dostupnu tehnologiju
05:35
that will allow us to really drive space exploration.
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koja će nam omogućiti da doista pokrenemo istraživanje svemira.
05:39
But how cheap could it get? I want to give you the end point.
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No, koliko cijena može pasti? Želim vam dati krajnji iznos.
05:43
We know -- 20 million dollars today, you can go and buy a ticket,
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Danas za 20 milijuna možete kupiti kartu,
05:45
but how cheap could it get?
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ali koliko jeftino može biti?
05:47
Let's go back to high school physics here.
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Vratimo se na srednjoškolsku fiziku.
05:48
If you calculate the amount of potential energy, mgh,
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Ako izračunate količinu potencijalne enrgije, mgh,
05:52
to take you and your spacesuit up to a couple hundred miles,
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potrebne da vas i vaše svemirsko odijelo podigne dvije stotine milja,
05:55
and then you accelerate yourself to 17,500 miles per hour --
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i zatim ubrzate na 17.500 milja na sat --
05:59
remember, that one half MV squared -- and you figure it out.
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sjetite se, jedna polovina MV na kvadrat – i izračunajte.
06:03
It's about 5.7 gigajoules of energy.
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Treba oko 5,7 gigadžula energije.
06:07
If you expended that over an hour, it's about 1.6 megawatts.
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Ako to utrošite u sat vremena, to je oko 1,6 megavati.
06:12
If you go to one of Vijay's micro-power sources,
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Ako uzmete jedan od Vijay-evih izvora mikro-energije,
06:15
and they sell it to you for seven cents a kilowatt hour --
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i oni vam ga prodaju za sedam centi po kilovat satu --
06:17
anybody here fast in math?
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zna li netko ovdje brzo računati?
06:19
How much will it cost you and your spacesuit to go to orbit?
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Koliko će koštati da vi i vaše odijelo odete u orbitu?
06:23
100 bucks. That's the price-improvement curve that --
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100 dolara. To je krivulja smanjenja cijene --
06:27
we need some breakthroughs in physics along the way,
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Do toga još trebamo neke prodore u fizici,
06:29
I'll grant you that.
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priznat ću vam to.
06:32
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:33
But guys, if history has taught us anything,
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Ali, ljudi, ako nas je povijest išta naučila,
06:37
it's that if you can imagine it, you will get there eventually.
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to je da ako nešto možemo zamisliti, jednom ćemo stići ondje.
06:40
I have no question that the physics,
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Ne dvojim da je vrlo blizu tren
06:43
the engineering to get us down to the point
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kad će nas fizika i inženjering dovesti do stupnja
06:46
where all of us can afford orbital space flight is around the corner.
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kad si svi možemo priuštiti let u orbitu.
06:50
The difficulty is that there needs to be a real marketplace to drive the investment.
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Poteškoća je u tome da nam treba pravo tržište koje će potaknuti investicije.
06:55
Today, the Boeings and the Lockheeds don't spend a dollar
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Danas, kompanije poput Boeinga i Lockheeda ne troše ni dolara
06:59
of their own money in R&D.
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vlastitog novca na istraživanje i razvoj.
07:01
It's all government research dollars, and very few of those.
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Troše samo vladine subvencije, a i tih je malo.
07:04
And in fact, the large corporations,
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U stvari, velike korporacije
07:06
the governments, can't take the risk.
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i vlade ne mogu poduzeti taj rizik.
07:08
So we need what I call an exothermic economic reaction in space.
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Trebamo nešto što zovem egzotermička ekonomska reakcija u svemiru.
07:12
Today's commercial markets worldwide, global commercial launch market?
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Današnje svjetsko komercijalno tržište, tržište komercijalnih lansiranja?
07:16
12 to 15 launches per year.
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Od 12 to 15 lansiranja godišnje.
07:19
Number of commercial companies out there? 12 to 15 companies.
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Broj komercijalnih kompanija? 12 to 15 kompanija.
07:21
One per company. That's not it. There's only one marketplace,
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Jedno lansiranje po kompaniji. To nije to. Postoji samo jedno tržište,
07:25
and I call them self-loading carbon payloads.
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i ja ih zovem samo-ostvarujuće ugljične isplate.
07:28
They come with their own money. They're easy to make.
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Dolaze sa svojim vlastitim novcem. Lako ih je napraviti.
07:31
It's people. The Ansari X PRIZE was my solution,
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To su ljudi. Nagrada Ansari X je moje rješenje,
07:35
reading about Lindbergh for creating the vehicles to get us there.
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dok sam čitao o Lindberghu, za stvaranje letjelica koje će nas povesti onamo.
07:39
We offered 10 million dollars in cash for the first reusable ship,
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Ponudili smo 10 milijuna dolara u gotovini za prvu letjelicu koja će se moći višestruko koristiti,
07:42
carry three people up to 100 kilometers,
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ponijeti tri osobe na visinu od 100 kilometara,
07:44
come back down, and within two weeks, make the trip again.
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vratiti se i, u roku od dva tjedna, ponoviti put.
07:47
Twenty-six teams from seven countries entered the competition,
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26 timova iz sedam zemalja se natjecalo,
07:51
spending between one to 25 million dollars each.
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i svaki je potrošio od 1 do 25 milijuna dolara.
07:54
And of course, we had beautiful SpaceShipOne,
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Naravno, dobili smo prekrasni SpaceShipOne,
07:56
which made those two flights and won the competition.
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koji je obavio dva leta i osvojio nagradu.
08:00
And I'd like to take you there, to that morning,
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Volio bih vas povesti ondje, u to jutro,
08:03
for just a quick video.
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s kratkim videom.
08:21
(Video) Pilot: Release our fire.
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(Video) Pilot: Pustite plamen.
08:26
Richard Searfoss: Good luck.
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Richard Searfoss: Sretno.
08:31
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
08:46
RS: We've got an altitude call of 368,000 feet.
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RS: Objavljena je visina od 368.000 stopa.
08:54
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
08:57
RS: So in my official capacity as the chief judge
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RS: U službenom svojstvu glavnog suca
09:00
of the Ansari X PRIZE competition,
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natjecanja za nagradu Ansari X,
09:02
I declare that Mojave Aerospace Ventures
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proglašavam da je Mojave Aerospace Ventures
09:04
has indeed earned the Ansari X PRIZE.
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zaista zaradila nagradu Ansari X.
09:07
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
09:09
Peter Diamandis: Probably the most difficult thing that I had to do
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Peter Diamandis: Vjerojatno najteža stvar koju sam morao postići
09:11
was raise the capital for this. It was literally impossible.
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je doći do kapitala za ovo. Bilo je to doslovno nemoguće.
09:14
We went -- I went to 100, 200 CEOs, CMOs.
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Išli smo – obišao sam 200, 300 direktora.
09:18
No one believed it was done. Everyone said, "Oh, what does NASA think?
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Nitko nije vjerovao da se to može. Svi su pitali, "O, a što NASA misli?
09:20
Well, people are going to die,
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No, ljudi će umrijeti,
09:22
how can you possibly going to put this forward?"
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kako ćeš uopće ovo ostvariti?"
09:24
I found a visionary family, the Ansari family, and Champ Car,
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Pronašao sam obitelj vizionara, Ansarijeve, i Champ Car,
09:27
and raised part of the money, but not the full 10 million.
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i došao do dijela novca, ali ne do svih 10 milijuna.
09:30
And what I ended up doing was going out to the insurance industry
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Na koncu sam se obratio osiguravateljskoj industriji
09:34
and buying a hole-in-one insurance policy.
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i kupio osiguranje bez njihovog rizika.
09:36
See, the insurance companies went to Boeing and Lockheed,
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Vidite, osiguravatelji su otišli u Boeing i Lockheed,
09:38
and said, "Are you going to compete?" No.
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i pitali, "Hoćete li i vi sudjelovati?" Ne.
09:40
"Are you going to compete?" No. "No one's going to win this thing."
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"Hoćete se nadmetati?" Ne. "Nitko neće dobiti tu nagradu."
09:42
So, they took a bet that no one would win by January of '05,
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Pa su se osiguravatelji okladili da nitko neće uspjeti do siječnja '05,
09:47
and I took a bet that someone would win.
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a ja sam se kladio da će netko uspjeti.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
09:52
So -- and the best thing is they paid off and the check didn't bounce.
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Najbolje je u svemu da su platili, ček nije poništen.
09:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:59
We've had a lot of accomplishments
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Postigli smo puno
10:01
and it's been a tremendous success.
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i to je bio silan uspjeh.
10:03
One of the things I'm most happy about is that the SpaceShipOne
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Ono zbog čega sam silno sretan je to da će SpaceShipOne
10:09
is going to hang in Air and Space Museum,
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biti izložen u Muzeju letjelica,
10:11
next to the Spirit of St. Louis and the Wright Flyer.
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uz zrakoplov Duh St. Louisa i Wrightovu letjelicu.
10:13
Isn't that great? (Applause)
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Nije li to sjajno? (Pljesak)
10:18
So a little bit about the future, steps to space, what's available for you.
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Da nešto kažemo o budućnosti, koracima, koji su vam na raspolaganju.
10:22
Today, you can go and experience weightless flights.
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Danas možete iskusiti bestežinske letove.
10:26
By '08, suborbital flights, the price tag for that, you know, on Virgin,
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Do 2008. će cijena pod-orbitalnih letova u Virginu,
10:30
is going to be about 200,000.
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biti negdje oko 200.000 dolara.
10:32
There are three or four other serious efforts that will bring the price down very rapidly,
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Ima još tri ili četiri ozbiljna nastojanja koji će brzo srušiti cijenu
10:35
I think, to about 25,000 dollars for a suborbital flight.
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na oko 25.000 dolara za pod-orbitalni let.
10:39
Orbital flights -- we can take you to the space station.
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Orbitalni letovi – možemo vas odvesti do svemirske postaje.
10:41
And then I truly believe, once a group is in orbit around the Earth --
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A zatim, stvarno to vjerujem, jednom kad skupina bude kružila u orbiti --
10:45
I know if they don't do it, I am --
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ako oni to ne naprave, ja hoću --
10:47
we're going to stockpile some fuel,
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skupit ćemo gorivo,
10:49
make a beeline for the moon and grab some real estate.
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pojuriti na Mjesec i zgrabiti nekretnine.
10:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:53
Quick moment for the designers in the audience.
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Jedan trenutak za dizajnere u publici.
10:56
We spent 11 years getting FAA approval to do zero gravity flights.
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Trebalo nam je 11 godina za dozvolu od FAA za letove s nultom gravitacijom.
11:00
Here are some fun images. Here's Burt Rutan
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Evo zabavnih slika. Ovo je Burt Rutan
11:02
and my good friend Greg Meronek inside a zero gravity --
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i moj dobar prijatelj Greg Meronek u nultoj gravitaciji --
11:06
people think a zero gravity room,
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ljudi misle da su u sobi s nultom gravitacijom,
11:08
there's a switch on there that turns it off --
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ovdje je prekidač s kojim se isključuje --
11:10
but it's actually parabolic flight of an airplane.
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ali ovo je zapravo parabolični zrakoplovni let.
11:12
And turns out 7-Up has just done a little commercial that's airing this month.
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Kompanija 7-Up has je upravo snimila reklamu koja će se pustiti ovoga mjeseca.
11:17
If we can get the audio up?
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Možemo li poglasniti?
11:19
(Video) Narrator: For a chance to win the first free ticket to space,
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(Video) Narator: Za šansu da osvojite prvu besplatnu kartu za let u svemir,
11:23
look for specially marked packages of Diet 7-Up.
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potražite posebno označenu ambalažu 7-Up.
11:27
When you want the taste that won't weigh you down,
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Kada želite okus koji vas neće povući dolje,
11:29
the only way to go is up.
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jedini je izlaz ići gore.
11:31
PD: That was filmed inside our airplane, and so, you can now do this.
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PD: To je snimljeno u našem zrakoplovu, a i vi sada možete proći isto.
11:36
We're based down in Florida.
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Sjedište nam je na Floridi.
11:38
Let me talk about the other thing I'm excited about.
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Dopustite da kažem nešto o drugoj stvari koja me oduševljava.
11:40
The future of prizes. You know, prizes are a very old idea.
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Budućnost nagrada. Znate, nagrade su jako stara ideja.
11:44
I had the pleasure of borrowing from the Longitude Prize
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Zadovoljstvo mi je posuditi od Longitude nagrade
11:47
and the Orteig Prize that put Lindbergh forward.
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i Orteig nagrade koja je pogurala Lindbergha.
11:50
And we have made a decision in the X PRIZE Foundation
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U X PRIZE fondaciji smo odlučili
11:53
to actually carry that concept forward into other technology areas,
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da koncept primijenimo i u drugim tehnološkim područjima,
11:57
and we just took on a new mission statement:
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i usvojili smo novu Misiju:
11:59
"to bring about radical breakthroughs in space
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"S ciljem ostvarenja radikalnih pomaka u svemiru
12:02
and other technologies for the benefit of humanity."
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i drugim tehnologijama za dobrobit čovječanstva."
12:05
And this is something that we're very excited about.
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To je nešto što nas oduševljava.
12:08
I showed this slide to Larry Page, who just joined our board.
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Pokazao sam ovaj slajd Larryju Pageu, koji se upravo pridružio odboru.
12:11
And you know, when you give to a nonprofit,
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Znate, kad date neprofitnoj organizaciji,
12:13
you might have 50 cents on the dollar.
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imate 50 centi na dolar.
12:15
If you have a matching grant, it's typically two or three to one.
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Odgovarajuća donacija je tipično u omjeru od dva ili tri naspram jedan.
12:18
If you put up a prize, you can get literally a 50 to one leverage on your dollars.
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Ako istaknete nagradu, možete doslovno dobiti 50 naspram jedan za vaš novac.
12:23
And that's huge. And then he turned around and said,
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A to je ogromno. I tada se okrenuo i rekao,
12:25
"Well, if you back a prize institute that runs a 10 prize, you get 500 to one."
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"No, ako podupreš nagradni institut koji nudi 10 nagrada, dobivaš 500 naspram jedan."
12:29
I said, "Well, that's great."
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Rekoh, "No, to je sjajno."
12:31
So, we have actually -- are looking to turn the X PRIZE
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Pa smo u stvari – razmatramo mogućnost da X PRIZE
12:34
into a world-class prize institute.
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pretvorimo u nagradni institut svjetske razine.
12:37
This is what happens when you put up a prize,
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To se događa kad istaknete nagradu,
12:40
when you announce it and teams start to begin doing trials.
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objavite je i timovi počnu raditi probe.
12:44
You get publicity increase, and when it's won,
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Publicitet raste, a kad se nagrada osvoji,
12:47
publicity shoots through the roof -- if it's properly managed --
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publicitet eksplodira – ako se njime pravilno upravlja --
12:49
and that's part of the benefits to a sponsor.
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i to je dio koristi koju ostvaruje sponzor.
12:53
Then, when the prize is actually won, after it's moving,
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Potom, nakon što je nagrada osvojena, stvar se odvija,
12:57
you get societal benefits, you know, new technology, new capability.
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imate društvene koristi, nove tehnologije, nove mogućnosti.
13:01
And the benefit to the sponsors
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A korist za sponzora
13:03
is the sum of the publicity and societal benefits over the long term.
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je zbroj publiciteta i društvenih koristi na dugi rok.
13:06
That's our value proposition in a prize.
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To je vrijednost koju nudimo u nagradi.
13:09
If you were going to go and try to create SpaceShipOne,
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Ako ćete pokušati stvoriti SpaceShipOne,
13:11
or any kind of a new technology,
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ili koju drugu vrstu novih tehnologija,
13:13
you have to fund that from the beginning
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morate ih financirati otpočetka
13:16
and maintain that funding with an uncertain outcome.
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i nastaviti financirati usprkos nesigurnom ishodu.
13:19
It may or may not happen. But if you put up a prize,
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Možda će biti, a možda i neće. No, ako ponudite nagradu,
13:22
the beautiful thing is, you know, it's a very small maintenance fee,
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ljepota koncepta je da su tekući troškovi mali,
13:25
and you pay on success.
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i plaćate samo ako se uspije.
13:27
Orteig didn't pay a dime out to the nine teams that went across --
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Orteig nije platio ni lipe onim 9 timova koji su prešli --
13:29
tried to go across the Atlantic,
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pokušali prijeći Atlantik,
13:31
and we didn't pay a dime until someone won the Ansari X PRIZE.
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a mi nismo platili ni lipe dok netko nije osvojio nagradu Ansari X.
13:34
So, prizes work great.
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Dakle, nagrade su odlične.
13:36
You know, innovators, the entrepreneurs out there,
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Znate, inovatori, poduzetnici koji postoje,
13:38
you know that when you're going for a goal,
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znate da kad pokušavate postići cilj,
13:40
the first thing you have to do is believe
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prvo što morate je sami vjerovati
13:42
that you can do it yourself.
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da to možete postići.
13:44
Then, you've got to, you know, face potential public ridicule
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Zatim se morate suočiti s mogućim javnim ruganjem --
13:46
of -- that's a crazy idea, it'll never work.
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to je luda ideja, nikad neće uspjeti.
13:48
And then you have to convince others,
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A zatim morate uvjeriti druge,
13:51
so that they can, in fact, help you raise the funds,
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kako bi vam mogli pomoći pronaći financiranje,
13:54
and then you've got to deal with the fact that you've got government bureaucracies
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a onda se morate nositi i s državnom birokracijom
13:57
and institutions that don't want you to move those things forward,
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i institucijama koje ne žele da pomaknete stvari,
14:00
and you have to deal with failures. What a prize does,
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a morate se nositi i s neuspjehom. Nagrada postiže,
14:02
what we've experienced a prize doing,
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kako smo mi iskusili,
14:04
is literally help to short-circuit or support all of these things,
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doslovno kratki spoj ili podršku u svemu,
14:09
because a prize credentials the idea that this is a good idea.
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jer nagrada potvrđuje da je ta ideja dobra ideja.
14:11
Well, it must be a good idea.
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Mora da je dobra ideja.
14:13
Someone's offering 10 million dollars to go and do this thing.
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Netko nudi 10 milijuna da se to proba napraviti.
14:16
And each of these areas was something that we found
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I, kako smo otkrili, u svemu od gore navedenog
14:19
the Ansari X PRIZE helped short-circuit these for innovation.
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nagrada Ansari X je pomogla u ostvarenju inovacija.
14:24
So, as an organization, we put together a prize discovery process
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Kao organizacija, mi istražujemo proces nagrađivanja
14:27
of how to come up with prizes and write the rules,
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u smislu formuliranja nagrada i pisanja pravila,
14:30
and we're actually looking at creating prizes
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i proučavamo oblikovanje nagrada
14:33
in a number of different categories.
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u mnogim različitim kategorijama.
14:35
We're looking at attacking energy, environment, nanotechnology --
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Razmatramo napasti energetiku, okoliš, nanotehnologiju --
14:40
and I'll talk about those more in a moment.
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i govorit ću ubrzo o njima.
14:42
And the way we're doing that is we're creating prize teams
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To postižemo tako da stvorimo nagradne timove
14:44
within the X PRIZE. We have a space prize team.
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u okviru X PRIZE. Imamo tim za svemirske nagrade.
14:47
We're going after an orbital prize.
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Cilj nam je orbitalna nagrada.
14:49
We are looking at a number of energy prizes.
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Razmatramo više energetskih nagrada.
14:52
Craig Venter has just joined our board
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Craig Venter se upravo pridružio našem odboru
14:54
and we're doing a rapid genome sequencing prize with him,
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i pripremamo nagradu za brzo sekvencioniranje genoma,
14:56
we'll be announcing later this fall,
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koju ćemo objaviti ove jeseni,
14:58
about -- imagine being able to sequence anybody's DNA
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-- zamislite da smo u stanju sekvencionirati bilo čiji DNK
15:02
for under 1,000 dollars, revolutionize medicine.
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za manje od 1.000 dolara, revolucionizirati medicinu.
15:05
And clean water, education, medicine and even looking at social entrepreneurship.
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Tu su čista voda, obrazovanje, medicina, pa čak i društveno poduzetništvo.
15:10
So my final slide here is, the most critical tool
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Moj konačni slajd, najvažnije oruđe
15:13
for solving humanity's grand challenges -- it isn't technology,
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za rješavanje najvećih izazova čovječanstva – nije tehnologija,
15:17
it isn't money, it's only one thing --
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nije novac, već samo jedno --
15:19
it's the committed, passionate human mind.
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to oruđe je predan, strastven ljudski um.
15:22
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com