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TEDGlobal 2009

Geoff Mulgan: Post-crash, investing in a better world

ジェフ・マルガン: ポスト金融危機–より良い世界への投資

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世界経済が再起動されるなか、ジェフ・マルガンは疑問を抱く:緊急支援金を瀕死の古い産業につぎ込むよりも、新興の社会的責任をもつ会社に投資しないのかーこの世界をより良くするために。

- Social commentator
Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy that pioneers ideas in fields such as aging, education and poverty reduction. He’s the founder of the think-tank Demos, and the author of "The Art of Public Strategy." Full bio

It's hard to believe that it's less than a year since the extraordinary moment
世界金融とその信用が凍結した日から
00:19
when the finance, the credit, which drives our economies froze.
一年も経っていないとは信じ難い
00:23
A massive cardiac arrest.
大規模な心停止状態
00:27
The effect, the payback, perhaps, for years of vampire predators like Bernie Madoff,
その影響 しっぺ返しは 恐らく前例にみるように
00:30
whom we saw earlier.
長年に渡るバーニー・マドフのような略奪者だ
00:34
Abuse of steroids, binging and so on.
ステロイド剤の多用 過食といった類いだ
00:36
And it's only a few months since governments
政府機関が多額の支援金を投入してから
00:39
injected enormous sums of money to try and keep the whole system afloat.
数ヶ月しか経っていない
00:41
And we're now in a very strange sort of twilight zone,
今世界は 不可思議な状態にあり
00:47
where no one quite knows what's worked, or what doesn't.
誰も何が本当に機能しうるかもわからない
00:49
We don't have any very clear maps, any compass to guide us.
明確な指針もなく
00:53
We don't know which experts to believe anymore.
どの専門家を信じたらよいかもわからない
00:58
What I'm going to try and do is to give some pointers
今日 私がお話するのはひとつの方向性であり
01:01
to what I think is the landscape on the other side of the crisis,
金融危機の裏側にある
01:04
what things we should be looking out for
何に目を向けるべきか
01:08
and how we can actually use the crisis.
この金融危機から何を学べるかである
01:10
There's a definition of leadership which says,
リーダーシップの定義とは
01:13
"It's the ability to use the smallest possible crisis
「最小の危機から
01:15
for the biggest possible effect."
最大の効果へと導く能力だ」
01:19
And I want to talk about how we ensure that this crisis,
私が話したいのは この決して小さくない危機を
01:21
which is by no means small, really is used to the full.
どのようにして十分に生かしていくかだ
01:24
I want to start just by saying a bit about where I'm coming from.
まずは 私自身についてから始めよう
01:28
I've got a very confused background
私の極めて複雑な経歴が
01:31
which perhaps makes me appropriate for confused times.
この複雑な時代に合っているのだろう
01:34
I've got a Ph.D. in Telecoms, as you can see.
ご覧のとおり 電気通信の博士号を持っており
01:38
I trained briefly as a Buddhist monk under this guy.
この人について仏教について学んだこともある
01:41
I've been a civil servant,
また公務員になり
01:44
and I've been in charge of policy for this guy as well.
この人のもとで政治も担当した
01:46
But what I want to talk about begins when I was at this city, this university, as a student.
しかし私の話の始まりは 
ある街で学生をしていた時のことだ
01:49
And then as now, it was a beautiful place of balls and punts, beautiful people,
今も変わらず ボールやパントが飛び交う美しい街 
美しい人々
01:54
many of whom took to heart Ronald Reagan's comment
多くの人がロナルド・レーガンの
02:00
that, "even if they say hard work doesn't do you any harm,
「厳しい仕事があなたを傷つけないとしても 
どうしてそのリスクを冒すんだ」
02:03
why risk it?"
という言葉を信じていた
02:06
But when I was here,
しかしあの頃は
02:09
a lot of my fellow teenagers were in a very different situation,
多くの十代の仲間が異なる状況にあり
02:11
leaving school at a time then of rapidly growing youth unemployment,
若者の失業が急増するなか学校を出て
02:15
and essentially hitting a brick wall in terms of their opportunities.
職業の機会としては壁にぶち当り
02:19
And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than in punts.
私はボールを蹴るよりも彼らと時間をともにした
02:23
And they were people who were not short of wit, or grace or energy,
彼らは知力も上品さも活力も備えていた
02:27
but they had no hope, no jobs, no prospects.
それなのに 希望も仕事もなく 見通しも立たなかった
02:32
And when people aren't allowed to be useful,
そして 人々が「必要」とされることが許されない時
02:35
they soon think that they're useless.
すぐに自分は「役立たずだ」と思い込む
02:37
And although that was great for the music business at the time,
あの当時は音楽産業だけが栄え
02:40
it wasn't much good for anything else.
他には何も無かった
02:43
And ever since then, I've wondered why it is that capitalism
それ以来私の疑問は どうして資本主義はときに
02:45
is so amazingly efficient at some things, but so inefficient at others,
驚くほど効率的で 別のときには非効率的なのか
02:48
why it's so innovative in some ways and so un-innovative in others.
あることには革新的で 他のことには非革新的なのか
02:52
Now, since that time,
今 私たちは
02:57
we've actually been through an extraordinary boom,
異例のブームの時代を生きている
02:59
the longest boom ever in the history of this country.
この国の歴史上 最も長いブームだ
03:02
Unprecedented wealth and prosperity,
空前の豊かさ 繁栄
03:06
but that growth hasn't always delivered what we needed.
しかし成長は私たちが必要とするものをもたらしていない
03:08
H.L. Mencken once said that, "to every complex problem,
H.L.メンケンが言った「全ての複雑な問題には
03:12
there is a simple solution and it's wrong."
単純な解決策があるが それは誤ったものである」
03:15
But I'm not saying growth is wrong,
私は 成長が間違っているとは言っていない
03:19
but it's very striking that throughout the years of growth,
成長の時代にあって多くのことが
03:21
many things didn't get better.
良くならなかったという事実は驚くべきだ
03:24
Rates of depression carried on up, right across the Western world.
西欧では 鬱病に苦しむ人の数が増え続けている
03:26
If you look at America, the proportion of Americans
アメリカ人に目を向ければ
03:30
with no one to talk to about important things
重要なことを話す相手のいない人の数は
03:32
went up from a tenth to a quarter.
10人に1人から4人に1人に増えた
03:34
We commuted longer to work, but as you can see from this graph,
より多くの時間を通勤に費やし このグラフで見るように
03:37
the longer you commute the less happy you're likely to be.
通勤時間の長さは人々の幸福とは反比例している
03:40
And it became ever clearer that economic growth
経済成長が社会の成長 あるいは人間の成長に
03:44
doesn't automatically translate into social growth or human growth.
自動的に結びつかないのは明白な事実だ
03:47
We're now at another moment
今 若者たちの多くが厳しい就労条件に
03:52
when another wave of teenagers are entering a cruel job market.
直面する時を迎えている
03:54
There will be a million unemployed young people here
年末までには 100万人近い若者が
03:59
by the end of the year,
失業するであろう
04:01
thousands losing their jobs everyday in America.
アメリカでは毎日何千もの人が職を失い
04:03
We've got to do whatever we can to help them,
彼らを救うためにできることは
何でもしなくてはいけないが
04:06
but we've also got to ask, I think, a more profound question
同時に もっと根本的な疑問を持たなくてはいけない
04:09
of whether we use this crisis to jump forward
私たちはこの危機をばねに
04:12
to a different kind of economy that's more suited to human needs,
新しい経済 より人々の必要とする経済
04:15
to a better balance of economy and society.
社会とより良くバランスの取れた経済に
変えることはできないのか
04:19
And I think one of the lessons of history is that
歴史から学べることは
04:23
even the deepest crises can be moments of opportunity.
最悪の危機すらも 新しい機会になりうるということだ
04:25
They bring ideas from the margins into the mainstream.
危機は辺縁から主流へとアイディアをもたらし
04:30
They often lead to the acceleration of much-needed reforms.
より必要とされている改革が加速される
04:33
And you saw that in the '30s,
30年代にみられるように
04:37
when the Great Depression paved the way
世界大恐慌は ブレトンウッズ会議
04:40
for Bretton Woods, welfare states and so on.
福祉国家への道を作り出した
04:43
And I think you can see around us now,
今 私たちの周囲にも
04:47
some of the green shoots of a very different kind of economy and capitalism
新たな経済 資本主義の形が芽吹き始め
04:49
which could grow.
成長するかもしれない
04:52
You can see it in daily life.
それは日常からもわかる
04:54
When times are hard, people have to do things for themselves,
厳しい時代には 人々は自分のことは自分たちでやり
04:56
and right across the world, Oxford, Omaha, Omsk,
世界中 オックスフォード–オマハ–オムスクまで
04:58
you can see an extraordinary explosion of urban farming,
都市型農業が異常な広がりをみせ
05:02
people taking over land, taking over roofs,
人々は土地を 屋根を使い
05:05
turning barges into temporary farms.
はしけまでも一時的な農地に変えている
05:08
And I'm a very small part of this.
私のやっているのはほんのわずかだ
05:10
I have 60,000 of these things in my garden.
私の庭にはこれが6万ほど
05:12
A few of these. This is Atilla the hen.
何羽かの鶏 これは雌鶏のアティッラ
05:15
And I'm a very small part of a very large movement,
私がしているのは大きな運動のなかの一部で
05:18
which for some people is about survival,
この運動は人によっては生き延びる術であり
05:21
but is also about values, about a different kind of economy,
また価値観の問題 経済の異なるあり方であり
05:24
which isn't so much about consumption and credit,
消費や信用とはかけ離れているが
05:27
but about things which matter to us.
私たちにとって重要なことだ
05:29
And everywhere too, you can see a proliferation of time banks
タイムバンクや並行通貨の急増は
05:32
and parallel currencies,
いたるところで見られる
05:35
people using smart technologies to link up
人々は優れた技術を使って
05:37
all the resources freed up by the market -- people, buildings, land --
市場から放出された全ての資源-人 建物 土地-
05:40
and linking them to whomever has got the most compelling needs.
そして それを最も必要としている人を結びつけている
05:43
There's a similar story, I think, for governments.
政治の世界でも同じような例が見られる
05:48
Ronald Reagan, again, said the two funniest sentences
再び ロナルド・レーガンの愉快な
05:51
in the English language are,
これほどおかしな 二文はない
05:54
"I'm from the government. And I'm here to help."
「私は政府の者です
手助けに来ました」
05:56
But I think last year when governments did step in,
しかし昨年 政府が介入した時には
06:00
people were quite glad that they were there, that they did act.
人々は政府の対策をとても歓迎した
06:02
But now, a few months on,
それが数ヶ月経った今では
06:05
however good politicians are at swallowing frogs
良い政治家は
06:07
without pulling a face, as someone once put it,
表情も変えずに我慢をし
06:10
they can't hide their uncertainty.
自信の無さを隠すこともできない
06:12
Because it's already clear
なぜなら
06:14
how much of the enormous amount of money they put into the economy,
いくら巨大な資金を経済に投入しても
06:16
really went into fixing the past, bailing out the banks, the car companies,
過去を清算し 銀行や自動車会社を緊急援助するだけで
06:20
not preparing us for the future.
未来のために何も出来てないのは明らかだ
06:25
How much of the money is going into concrete and boosting consumption,
いくらコンクリートや
消費の水増しにお金をつぎ込んでも
06:27
not into solving the really profound problems we have to solve.
私たちが解決すべき根本的な問題は解決されていないのだ
06:31
And everywhere, as people think about the unprecedented sums
世界中で 人々が空前の額の
06:35
which are being spent of our money and our children's money,
私たちのお金 そして子どもたちのお金が
06:38
now, in the depth of this crisis, they're asking:
金融危機の深みに投じられて
疑問を持つだろう
06:41
Surely, we should be using this with a longer-term vision
確かにこれらの資金は長期的な視点で使われるべきで
06:43
to accelerate the shift to a green economy,
現職者にただ差し出すかわりに
06:47
to prepare for aging, to deal with some of the inequalities
グリーン経済への移行を早めるため
06:49
which scar countries like this and the United States
高齢化社会に対応するため 
また特にアメリカのような国で
06:52
rather than just giving the money to the incumbents?
不平等を解決するために使うべきではないか
06:56
Surely, we should be giving the money to entrepreneurs, to civil society,
明らかに これらのお金は
起業家たちや 市民社会や
06:59
for people able to create the new,
新しく創造できる人々に与えるべきだろう
07:02
not to the big, well-connected companies,
巨大で太いパイプを有する企業や
07:04
big, clunky government programs.
大きいだけでろくに廻らない政策にではない
07:07
And, after all this, as the great Chinese sage Lao Tzu said,
中国の偉大な賢人である老子が言ったように
07:10
"Governing a great country is like cooking a small fish.
「大きな国を治めるのは
小さな魚を料理するようなものだ
07:14
Don't overdo it."
料理し過ぎてはいけない」
07:17
And I think more and more people are also asking:
そしてより多くの人が考えるのは
07:20
Why boost consumption, rather than change what we consume?
「消費するものを変えないで
なぜ消費を増やすのか」ということです
07:23
Like the mayor of São Paulo who's banned advertising billboards,
例えばサンパウロの市長が宣伝広告を廃止したり
07:26
or the many cities like San Francisco
サンフランシスコをはじめとして多くの街で
07:30
putting in infrastructures for electric cars.
電気自動車のためのインフラを整えたり
07:32
You can see a bit of the same thing happening in the business world.
ビジネスの世界でも同様のことが少しずつ動き出している
07:35
Some, I think some of the bankers
一部の銀行家たちは
07:41
who have appear to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
何も学ばず また何も忘れていないようだ
07:43
But ask yourselves: What will be the biggest sectors of the economy
しかし「10年20年30年後の巨大産業は
07:46
in 10, 20, 30 years time? It won't be the ones lining up for handouts,
どう変わるだろうか?」今の宣伝広告にあがっているような
07:49
like cars and aerospace and so on.
自動車産業でも飛行機産業でもないことは確かだ
07:53
The biggest sector, by far, will be health --
今のところ 保健医療産業は
07:55
already 18 percent of the American economy,
既にアメリカ経済の18%を占め
07:58
predicted to grow to 30, even 40 percent by mid-century.
今世紀中頃までには30〜40%まで成長すると予想される
08:01
Elder care, child care, already much bigger employers than cars.
老人介護 保育に携わる人員はすでに自動車業界を越え
08:05
Education: six, seven, eight percent of the economy and growing.
経済の6 - 8%を占める教育産業もまた成長過程にある
08:09
Environmental services, energy services, the myriad of green jobs,
環境 エネルギー産業 無数のグリーン産業は
08:13
they're all pointing to a very different kind of economy
全く新しい形の経済へ向かっており
08:17
which isn't just about products, but is using distributed networks,
それは商品だけでなく ネットワークを利用し
08:20
and it's founded above all on care, on relationships,
互いへの配慮 人間関係のうえに成り立つ
08:25
on what people do to other people, often one to one,
時に1対1で行う 他人のための産業であり
08:29
rather than simply selling them a product.
ただ単に商品を売るのとは異なるのだ
08:32
And I think that what connects the challenge for civil society,
そして 市民団体の試み
08:37
the challenge for governments and the challenge for business now
政府のそしてビジネスの試みを結びつけるのは
08:40
is, in a way, a very simple one, but quite a difficult one.
とても単純ではあるが 困難なことであると思う
08:43
We know our societies have to radically change.
今 私たちの社会は根本的に変わらなくてはいけない
08:47
We know we can't go back to where we were before the crisis.
もはや 危機が起こる前の世界に戻ることはできない
08:51
But we also know it's only through experiment
しかし 実験を試みることで
08:55
that we'll discover exactly how to run a low carbon city,
低炭素都市への道を探りあて
08:58
how to care for a much older population,
高齢者世代を支え
09:02
how to deal with drug addiction and so on.
薬物中毒患者を救えるかが見えてくる
09:05
And here's the problem.
ここに問題がある
09:09
In science, we do experiments systematically.
科学では系統的に実験をおこなう
09:11
Our societies now spend two, three, four percent of GDP
現在 GDPの2〜4%を
09:14
to invest systematically in new discovery, in science, in technology,
新たな発見 科学 技術に系統的に投資し
09:19
to fuel the pipeline of brilliant inventions
素晴しい発明への道を開き
09:22
which illuminate gatherings like this.
TEDのような機会を生み出している
09:25
It's not that our scientists are necessarily much smarter
科学者たちは100年前よりも
09:28
than they were a hundred years ago, maybe they are,
ずっと賢いとは断言できないが 多分賢いだろう
09:30
but they have a hell of a lot more backing than they ever did.
科学者たちは以前にもまして莫大な支援を得ている
09:33
And what's striking though,
衝撃的なことに
09:37
is that in society there's almost nothing comparable,
資本主義が不得意とする
09:39
no comparable investment,
例えば 思いやり 共感 人間関係 介護などには
09:41
no systematic experiment, in the things capitalism isn't very good at,
投資も系統的な実験も
09:43
like compassion, or empathy, or relationships or care.
何も行われていない
09:47
Now, I didn't really understand that until I met this guy
さて この男性と出会うまで私は何も理解していなかった
09:52
who was then an 80-year-old, slightly shambolic man
当時80歳だった彼は 多少乱雑なところもあったが
09:55
who lived on tomato soup and thought ironing was very overrated.
トマトスープばかり食べ 
アイロンがけは過大評価されていると言った
09:58
He had helped shape Britain's post-war institutions,
彼はイギリスの戦後の社会作り
10:03
its welfare state, its economy,
社会福祉制度や経済に貢献し
10:06
but had sort of reinvented himself as a social entrepreneur,
また 社会起業家として新しい事業にも取り組み
10:09
became an inventor of many, many different organizations.
多くの組織の創設に寄与した
10:12
Some famous ones like the Open University, which has 110,000 students,
例えばオープン・ユニバーシティには
11万人に及ぶ生徒が集まり
10:15
the University of the Third Age, which has nearly half a million older people
ユニバーシティ・オブ・サードエイジでは
50万人近くの定年後の同世代同志が
10:20
teaching other older people,
教育活動をおこなう
10:23
as well as strange things like DIY garages and language lines
日曜大工やランゲージラインのようなユニークなものから
10:25
and schools for social entrepreneurs.
社会起業家のための学校まで
10:30
And he ended his life selling companies to venture capitalists.
晩年 彼はこれらをベンチャーキャピタルに売却した
10:32
He believed if you see a problem, you shouldn't tell someone to act,
彼の信念は 問題を見つけた時に
人に行動させるのではなく
10:36
you should act on it yourself, and he lived long enough
自ら行動を起こすことだ
10:39
and saw enough of his ideas first scorned and then succeed
長生きした彼は 
何度も彼の考えがはじめは否定されるのを経験し
10:41
that he said you should always take no as a question and not as an answer.
私たちは「ノー」という疑問は持っても
「ノー」という答えを持つべきではないと言った
10:45
And his life was a systematic experiment to find better social answers,
彼の人生は
より良い社会への答えを導きだす実験の積み重ねであり
10:51
not from a theory, but from experiment, and experiment involving the people
理論ではなく 社会が必要とする頭脳を持つ人々
10:55
with the best intelligence on social needs,
また同時にそれらを必要とする人々を巻き込んだ
11:00
which were usually the people living with those needs.
実験の積み重ねであった
11:02
And he believed we live with others, we share the world with others
私たちは人々と生き 世界を共有している
11:04
and therefore our innovation must be done with others too,
だから新しいことは誰かのためにやるのではなく
11:07
not doing things at people, for them, and so on.
人々と共有すべきだと信じていた
11:11
Now, what he did didn't used to have a name,
当時は名前も無かった彼の行動が
11:15
but I think it's rapidly becoming quite mainstream.
今 一気に注目を集め始めている
11:19
It's what we do in the organization named after him
私たちは彼の遺志を継ぐ組織で
11:22
where we try and invent, create, launch new ventures,
新しい事業に挑戦し考案しさらに創造と設立に励み
11:25
whether it's schools, web companies, health organizations and so on.
教育機関からウェブ関連会社そして保健医療機関まで含む
11:28
And we find ourselves part of a very rapidly growing global movement
様々な組織がデザイン 技術 社会組織のアイディアを使って
11:32
of institutions working on social innovation,
理論に頼らず
11:36
using ideas from design or technology or community organizing
実践と行動に依って将来世界への萌芽を作るために
11:39
to develop the germs of a future world, but through practice and through demonstration
社会革新を目指す運動の中に
11:43
and not through theory.
私たちはいる
11:48
And they're spreading from Korea to Brazil to India to the USA
この運動は韓国からブラジル インドからアメリカ
11:51
and across Europe.
そしてヨーロッパ中に広がっている
11:54
And they've been given new momentum by the crisis, by the need for better answers
経済危機や失業問題 社会崩壊に対する対策の必要性から
11:57
to joblessness, community breakdown and so on.
私たちは新たなるモメンタムを得た
12:03
Some of the ideas are strange.
中にはおかしな訴えもある
12:06
These are complaints choirs.
文句のコーラスのようなものだ
12:08
People come together to sing about the things that really bug them.
人々が寄り集まって自分たちの悩みを歌にするのだ
12:10
(Laughter)
(笑)
12:13
Others are much more pragmatic: health coaches, learning mentors, job clubs.
中には実用的な訴えもある-ヘルスアドバイス 
メンターリング 職業クラブなど
12:15
And some are quite structural, like social impact bonds
またソーシャルインパクトボンドのように
12:19
where you raise money to invest in diverting teenagers from crime
若者の犯罪を防ぐためや
12:22
or helping old people keep out of hospital,
老人が入院をしなくて済むように資金を募り
12:26
and you get paid back according to how successful your projects are.
その成果からリターンを得るような取り組みもある
12:28
Now, the idea that all of this represents,
これら全てが示すことは
12:34
I think, is rapidly becoming a common sense
急速に私たちのなかで常識となり
12:36
and part of how we respond to the crisis,
金融危機に対する一つの反応の現れであり
12:39
recognizing the need to invest in innovation for social progress
技術の進歩と社会の発展のための改革の
12:41
as well as technological progress.
必要性を気づかせてくれることだ
12:45
There were big health innovation funds
今年のはじめに英国で
12:47
launched earlier this year in this country,
大規模な保健医療改革ファンドと
12:50
as well as a public service innovation lab.
公共事業の研究所が設立された
12:52
Across northern Europe, many governments
北ヨーロッパでは 多くの政府が
12:54
now have innovation laboratories within them.
改革研究機関を持っている
12:56
And just a few months ago, President Obama
数ヶ月前にはオバマ大統領が
12:59
launched the Office of Social Innovation in the White House.
社会改革機関をホワイトハウス内に立ち上げた
13:01
And what people are beginning to ask is:
そこで人々が疑問に思うことは
13:04
Surely, just as we invest in R and D, two, three, four percent,
GDPの2 - 4%を研究開発に
13:06
of our GDP, of our economy,
投資しているように
13:10
what if we put, let's say, one percent of public spending
例えば公共投資の1%でも
13:12
into social innovation, into elder care, new kinds of education,
社会改革 老人介護 新しい教育や
13:15
new ways of helping the disabled?
障害者保護につぎ込んだらどうなるかということだ
13:19
Perhaps we'd achieve similar productivity gains in society
恐らく経済 技術面で見られたのと
13:21
to those we've had in the economy and in technology.
同じだけの成果を得ることができるだろう
13:25
And if, a generation or two ago, the big challenges
そして1〜2世代前には
13:29
were ones like getting a man on the moon,
月面着陸が人類への挑戦であったように
13:31
perhaps the challenges we need to set ourselves now
私たちが今必要としていることは
13:34
are ones like eliminating child malnutrition, stopping trafficking,
子どもたちの栄養不良や人身売買の根絶などだ
13:37
or one, I think closer to home for America or Europe,
欧米にとって足元の課題として
13:42
why don't we set ourselves the goal
今日の世代がのべ10億年も長生きする
13:44
of achieving a billion extra years of life for today's citizens.
という目標をかかげてはどうだろうか
13:46
Now those are all goals which could be achieved within a decade,
このような目標は10年もしないうちに達成できるだろう
13:49
but only with radical and systematic experiment,
根本的で系統的な実験によって
13:53
not just with technologies, but also with lifestyles and culture
技術だけでなく 生活スタイルや文化
13:57
and policies and institutions too.
政策 そして組織の力を使って
14:01
Now, I want to end by saying a little bit about what I think this means for capitalism.
さて これが資本主義にとってどのような意味があるか
私の考えに言及して終わりにしたい
14:05
I think what this is all about, this whole movement
辺縁からの起こる全ての動きは
14:11
which is growing from the margins, remains quite small.
未だに微々たるものだ
14:13
Nothing like the resources of a CERN or a DARPA or an IBM or a Dupont.
CERN、DARPA、IBM、Dupontのもつ
資源とは比べられない
14:16
What it's telling us is that capitalism is going to become more social.
資本主義はより社会的になりつつある
14:20
It's already immersed in social networks.
すでにソーシャルネットワークの中にあり
14:24
It will become more involved in social investment, and social care
これから社会投資 社会保護といった
14:26
and in industries where the value comes from what you do with others,
ただ物を売るだけではなく
14:31
not just from what you sell to them,
他人のための行動が価値を持つ消費行動と同様に
14:35
and from relationships as well as from consumption.
人間関係からもたらされる産業と関連付けられるようになる
14:38
But interestingly too, it implies a future where society learns a few tricks from capitalism
興味深いことに 将来 社会は資本主義から
14:41
about how you embed the DNA of restless continual innovation
どのように終わりのない改革のDNAが社会に組み込まれ
14:46
into society, trying things out and then growing and scaling the ones that work.
物事を可能にしさらに成長していくかの
ヒントをえるだろう
14:50
Now, I think this future will be quite surprising to many people.
未来は多くの人にとって驚くべきものとなると思う
14:57
In recent years, a lot of intelligent people thought that capitalism had basically won.
近年 多くの知識人が資本主義は勝利し
15:01
History was over
歴史は終わった
15:06
and society would inevitably have to take second place to economy.
社会は逃れようもなく
経済に従属するするだろうと考えました
15:08
But I've been struck with a parallel in how people often talk about capitalism today
しかし私は人々が今日の資本主義と
15:13
and how they talked about the monarchy 200 years ago,
200年前フランス革命後に
フランス君主制が復活した時について
15:18
just after the French Revolution and the restoration of the monarchy in France.
同じように語ることに衝撃をうけてきました
15:21
Then, people said monarchy dominated everywhere
君主制が全てを支配できたのは
15:25
because it was rooted in human nature.
それが人間の性質だからだ
15:28
We were naturally deferential. We needed hierarchy.
人間はみな違う 人類には階級が必要だという議論は
15:30
Just as today, the enthusiasts of unrestrained capitalism
ちょうど 制限を付けない資本主義の信奉者が
15:33
say it's rooted in human nature,
個人主義や好奇心といったものが
15:37
only now it's individualism, inquisitiveness, and so on.
人間の性質であるというように
15:39
Then monarchy had seen off its big challenger, mass democracy,
君主制は良い意図を持ちながら
失敗を運命づけられた社会実験
15:42
which was seen as a well-intentioned but doomed experiment,
すなわち大衆民主主義という挑戦者によって追いやられた
15:47
just as capitalism has seen off socialism.
これは資本主義が社会主義を追いやったようなものだ
15:50
Even Fidel Castro now says that the only thing worse
フィデル・カストロですら
15:53
than being exploited by multinational capitalism
「多国籍資本主義に搾取されるよりも悪い唯一のことは
15:56
is not being exploited by multinational capitalism.
多国籍資本主義に搾取されないことだ」と言っている
15:58
And whereas then monarchies, palaces and forts dominated every city skyline
君主制において宮殿や要塞が普遍的で確信に満ちて
16:03
and looked permanent and confident,
町を埋め尽くしたように
16:07
today it's the gleaming towers of the banks which dominate every big city.
今日では 光放つ銀行のタワーがすべての町を支配している
16:09
I'm not suggesting the crowds are about to storm the barricades
私は決して群衆がバリケードを襲撃し
16:13
and string up every investment banker from the nearest lamppost,
投資銀行家を街灯に縛りつけるよう
提案しているのではない
16:16
though that might be quite tempting.
それも悪くはないだろうが
16:20
But I do think we're on the verge of a period when,
君主制や軍事体制にも起こったように
16:22
just as happened to the monarchy and, interestingly, the military too,
それだけで完結したシステムではなく
16:25
the central position of finance capital is going to come to an end,
金融経済中心主義は終わりを迎え
16:29
and it's going to steadily move to the sides, the margins of our society,
脇役となり 社会の辺縁に移り
16:33
transformed from being a master into a servant,
支配者から
16:37
a servant to the productive economy and of human needs.
生産的な経済と人々の必要のための使用人となるだろう
16:40
And as that happens,
その時
16:44
we will remember something very simple and obvious about capitalism,
私たちは資本主義の基本を思い出し
16:46
which is that, unlike what you read in economics textbooks,
それは経済の教科書で読むような
16:49
it's not a self-sufficient system.
それだけで完結したシステムではなく
16:52
It depends on other systems,
これらが満たされなければ資本主義も損害を被るような
16:55
on ecology, on family, on community,
エコロジー 家族 コミュニティなど
16:57
and if these aren't replenished, capitalism suffers too.
他のシステムに頼り
17:00
And our human nature isn't just selfish, it's also compassionate.
人類の本質は利己主義ではなく思いやりに溢れている
17:04
It's not just competitive, it's also caring.
競争だけでなく慈しみ深いもので
17:09
Because of the depth of the crisis, I think we are at a moment of choice.
この金融危機にあって 今私たちは選択の時を迎えている
17:14
The crisis is almost certainly deepening around us.
危機は私たちの周りで深まり
17:19
It will be worse at the end of this year,
年末にはさらに悪化し
17:22
quite possibly worse in a year's time than it is today.
恐らく一年後には現在よりもさらに悪化しているだろう
17:24
But this is one of those very rare moments
今は貴重な時でもある
17:27
when we have to choose whether we're just pedaling furiously
1〜2年前の状態に戻るように
17:30
to get back to where we were a year or two ago,
必死になって自転車をこぎ続け
17:33
and a very narrow idea of what the economy is for,
経済の本質について盲目になるのか
17:36
or whether this is a moment to jump ahead, to reboot
再出発して私たちが本来すべきことに取り組むための
17:40
and to do some of the things we probably should have been doing anyway.
大きな一歩を踏み出すかの選択の時を迎えている
17:45
Thank you.
ありがとうございました
17:48
(Applause)
(拍手)
17:50
Translated by Tomoko Tsubaki
Reviewed by Masaki Yanagishita

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About the speaker:

Geoff Mulgan - Social commentator
Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy that pioneers ideas in fields such as aging, education and poverty reduction. He’s the founder of the think-tank Demos, and the author of "The Art of Public Strategy."

Why you should listen

Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy with a 50-year history of creating new organisations and pioneering ideas in fields as varied as aging, education, healthcare and poverty reduction.

Before the Young Foundation, Geoff Mulgan has held various roles in the UK government including director of the Government's Strategy Unit and head of policy in the Prime Minister's office, and he was the founder of the think-tank Demos. He is chairing a Carnegie Inquiry into the Future of Civil Society in the UK and Ireland. His most recent book is The Art of Public Strategy: Mobilising Power and Knowledge for the Common Good.

More profile about the speaker
Geoff Mulgan | Speaker | TED.com