TEDGlobal 2009
Geoff Mulgan: Post-crash, investing in a better world
Geoff Mulgan:经济崩溃之后，投资一个更好的世界
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当我们重启世界经济之时，Geoff Mulgan提出了这样一个问题：除了给那些天数已尽的老行业提供紧急经济援助，我们为什么不把这些激励资金给一些新兴的有社会责任感的公司，让他们能够自力更生-从而使世界变得美好一点？
Geoff Mulgan - Social commentator
Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy that pioneers ideas in fields such as aging, education and poverty reduction. He’s the founder of the think-tank Demos, and the author of "The Art of Public Strategy." Full bio
Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy that pioneers ideas in fields such as aging, education and poverty reduction. He’s the founder of the think-tank Demos, and the author of "The Art of Public Strategy." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:19
It's hard to believe that it's less than a year since the extraordinary moment
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很难相信那个特殊时刻已过去将近一年
00:23
when the finance, the credit, which drives our economies froze.
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当时驱动经济的金融，信贷都停滞了。
00:27
A massive cardiac arrest.
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就像一次严重心脏骤停般的影响。
00:30
The effect, the payback, perhaps, for years of vampire predators like Bernie Madoff,
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它也许是对像伯纳德•麦道夫，我们刚才看到的，这样的多年的
00:34
whom we saw earlier.
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吸血鬼的惩罚。
00:36
Abuse of steroids, binging and so on.
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还有滥用类固醇，狂欢作乐，等等。
00:39
And it's only a few months since governments
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政府投入巨额资金试图维持
00:41
injected enormous sums of money to try and keep the whole system afloat.
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整个系统，至今才短短几个月。
00:47
And we're now in a very strange sort of twilight zone,
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我们现在正处在一个很奇怪的有点模糊的地带，
00:49
where no one quite knows what's worked, or what doesn't.
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没有人确切知道什么有效，什么没有。
00:53
We don't have any very clear maps, any compass to guide us.
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我们没有任何清晰的地图，或是指南针来指引我们。
00:58
We don't know which experts to believe anymore.
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我们不知道再去相信哪些专家。
01:01
What I'm going to try and do is to give some pointers
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我想尝试和做的是，
01:04
to what I think is the landscape on the other side of the crisis,
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给危机另一面上的景观画一些指示箭头，
01:08
what things we should be looking out for
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有哪些事我们应该注意
01:10
and how we can actually use the crisis.
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还有我们如何真正利用这次危机。
01:13
There's a definition of leadership which says,
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有一个关于领导才能的定义是这么说的，
01:15
"It's the ability to use the smallest possible crisis
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“它是利用最小危机
01:19
for the biggest possible effect."
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来达到最大效果的能力
01:21
And I want to talk about how we ensure that this crisis,
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我就是想谈一下我们如何确保
01:24
which is by no means small, really is used to the full.
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这次决不小的危机能真正被充分利用。
01:28
I want to start just by saying a bit about where I'm coming from.
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我想先稍微谈谈我自己的经历
01:31
I've got a very confused background
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我有非常混乱的经历
01:34
which perhaps makes me appropriate for confused times.
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这也有可能使我比较适合混乱的时代
01:38
I've got a Ph.D. in Telecoms, as you can see.
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我是电信博士，你们可以看到。
01:41
I trained briefly as a Buddhist monk under this guy.
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我曾经短期师从此人，作一个佛教徒
01:44
I've been a civil servant,
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我曾经是一名公务员
01:46
and I've been in charge of policy for this guy as well.
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也曾为这个人出谋划策，
01:49
But what I want to talk about begins when I was at this city, this university, as a student.
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但我想从我在这个城市，这所大学，作为一个学生开始说起。
01:54
And then as now, it was a beautiful place of balls and punts, beautiful people,
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和现在一样，当时这也是一个美丽的地方，有球类运动，划船，有美丽的人，
02:00
many of whom took to heart Ronald Reagan's comment
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他们很多人真心相信里根总统的这句话
02:03
that, "even if they say hard work doesn't do you any harm,
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"尽管他们说努力工作并不会害了你，
02:06
why risk it?"
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但为什么要冒这个险？
02:09
But when I was here,
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但我在这里的时候，
02:11
a lot of my fellow teenagers were in a very different situation,
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我的许多青少年伙伴处在非常不一样的形势下，
02:15
leaving school at a time then of rapidly growing youth unemployment,
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他们在年轻人失业飙升的时候毕业离开了学校，
02:19
and essentially hitting a brick wall in terms of their opportunities.
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在就业机会上他们等于撞上了南墙。
02:23
And I spent quite a lot of time with them rather than in punts.
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我没有去划船，而是花了大量时间和他们在一起
02:27
And they were people who were not short of wit, or grace or energy,
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他们不是缺少智慧，风度或是活力，
02:32
but they had no hope, no jobs, no prospects.
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可他们没有希望，没有工作，没有前途。
02:35
And when people aren't allowed to be useful,
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当人们不被允许有用时，
02:37
they soon think that they're useless.
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很快他们就会认为自己是无用的。
02:40
And although that was great for the music business at the time,
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尽管当时这种情况对音乐产业很不错，
02:43
it wasn't much good for anything else.
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但对任何其他行业来说并不太好
02:45
And ever since then, I've wondered why it is that capitalism
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从那时起，我就在考虑，为什么资本主义
02:48
is so amazingly efficient at some things, but so inefficient at others,
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对某些事情极其有效，但是对另一些事情却并不这么有效呢？
02:52
why it's so innovative in some ways and so un-innovative in others.
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又为什么它在某些方面很创新，但在另些方面却没有呢？
02:57
Now, since that time,
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那段时间以后，
02:59
we've actually been through an extraordinary boom,
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我们事实上经历了一段特殊的繁荣时期，
03:02
the longest boom ever in the history of this country.
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这个国家有史以来最长的繁荣时期
03:06
Unprecedented wealth and prosperity,
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史无前例的富裕和繁荣
03:08
but that growth hasn't always delivered what we needed.
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但是这种增长并没有一直带来我们所需要的
03:12
H.L. Mencken once said that, "to every complex problem,
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门肯曾经说过，“每一个复杂的问题，
03:15
there is a simple solution and it's wrong."
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都有一个简单的解“，但这是错的。
03:19
But I'm not saying growth is wrong,
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我并不是说增长是错误的，
03:21
but it's very striking that throughout the years of growth,
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但是值得注意的是经过这么多年的增长，
03:24
many things didn't get better.
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许多事情并没有好转。
03:26
Rates of depression carried on up, right across the Western world.
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在整个西方世界，抑郁症的比例在不断上升。
03:30
If you look at America, the proportion of Americans
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看一下美国，美国人中
03:32
with no one to talk to about important things
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无人可以谈心的人口比例
03:34
went up from a tenth to a quarter.
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从十分之一增长到了四分之一
03:37
We commuted longer to work, but as you can see from this graph,
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我们花更多时间在上下班的路上，但从这个图中你会看到，
03:40
the longer you commute the less happy you're likely to be.
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在路上花的时间越长，你就有可能越不快乐
03:44
And it became ever clearer that economic growth
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更清晰的一点是经济进步
03:47
doesn't automatically translate into social growth or human growth.
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并不能自动转化为社会进步或者人类进步。
03:52
We're now at another moment
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我们现在正处在另一个时刻、
03:54
when another wave of teenagers are entering a cruel job market.
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又一拨青少年正在进入这个残酷的就业市场
03:59
There will be a million unemployed young people here
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到今年底，这里会有一百万的
04:01
by the end of the year,
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年轻失业人口。
04:03
thousands losing their jobs everyday in America.
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而在美国每天都有数千人失去他们的工作
04:06
We've got to do whatever we can to help them,
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我们必须极尽所能去帮助他们
04:09
but we've also got to ask, I think, a more profound question
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但我们也必须问这样一个问题，我想，一个更深刻的问题
04:12
of whether we use this crisis to jump forward
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我们是否能利用这次危机向前跳跃
04:15
to a different kind of economy that's more suited to human needs,
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到一个不同的，更适合人类需要的经济制度，
04:19
to a better balance of economy and society.
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达到经济和社会的更和谐状态。
04:23
And I think one of the lessons of history is that
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我认为历史的重要一课就是，
04:25
even the deepest crises can be moments of opportunity.
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即使最深的危机也能带来机遇
04:30
They bring ideas from the margins into the mainstream.
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它们把边缘的想法带入主流
04:33
They often lead to the acceleration of much-needed reforms.
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他们往往加速了急需的改革
04:37
And you saw that in the '30s,
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你们看到这在三十年代发生过，
04:40
when the Great Depression paved the way
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当时的经济大萧条
04:43
for Bretton Woods, welfare states and so on.
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为布雷顿森林，福利国家等铺平了道路。
04:47
And I think you can see around us now,
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你们也可以看到现在在我们周围
04:49
some of the green shoots of a very different kind of economy and capitalism
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一种完全不同的经济制度和资本主义已萌生出绿芽
04:52
which could grow.
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并可能生长
04:54
You can see it in daily life.
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你们在日常生活中就能发现这些。
04:56
When times are hard, people have to do things for themselves,
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当时势艰难，人们不得不为自己做点什么
04:58
and right across the world, Oxford, Omaha, Omsk,
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在全世界，从牛津，奥马哈到鄂木斯克，
05:02
you can see an extraordinary explosion of urban farming,
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你们会发现城市化务农的激增
05:05
people taking over land, taking over roofs,
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人们借用土地， 借用房顶
05:08
turning barges into temporary farms.
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把游艇变作临时农场。
05:10
And I'm a very small part of this.
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我本人也是其中之一。
05:12
I have 60,000 of these things in my garden.
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在我的花园里我养了六万只这个家伙。
05:15
A few of these. This is Atilla the hen.
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还有一些这个。这是母鸡Atilla。
05:18
And I'm a very small part of a very large movement,
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我只是这巨大运动的一小份子，
05:21
which for some people is about survival,
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对某些人来说是为了生存
05:24
but is also about values, about a different kind of economy,
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但同时它也涉及到价值观，涉及到不同类型的经济，
05:27
which isn't so much about consumption and credit,
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它并不是那么关系到消费和信用
05:29
but about things which matter to us.
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而是关系到对我们真正重要的事。
05:32
And everywhere too, you can see a proliferation of time banks
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到处你们可以看到时间银行
05:35
and parallel currencies,
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和并行货币的激增，
05:37
people using smart technologies to link up
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人们运用高科技联系起
05:40
all the resources freed up by the market -- people, buildings, land --
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各种被市场，人，楼房和土地解放的资源
05:43
and linking them to whomever has got the most compelling needs.
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把它们和有最强烈需求的人联系起来。
05:48
There's a similar story, I think, for governments.
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这里有个类似的故事，关于政府的，
05:51
Ronald Reagan, again, said the two funniest sentences
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又是里根总统，他说在英语里
05:54
in the English language are,
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最滑稽的两句话是，
05:56
"I'm from the government. And I'm here to help."
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“我是政府的。我来这儿帮助你们。”
06:00
But I think last year when governments did step in,
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不过去年当政府真的介入，
06:02
people were quite glad that they were there, that they did act.
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人们还是很高兴有政府在，并且他们有所行动。
06:05
But now, a few months on,
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但是现在，几个月后，
06:07
however good politicians are at swallowing frogs
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再好的政治家都像在活吞青蛙
06:10
without pulling a face, as someone once put it,
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还不能拉着脸，像某些人形容的那样，
06:12
they can't hide their uncertainty.
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他们隐藏不了心中的无把握。
06:14
Because it's already clear
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因为已经很明显
06:16
how much of the enormous amount of money they put into the economy,
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他们投入到经济中的大量资金，无论多少
06:20
really went into fixing the past, bailing out the banks, the car companies,
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都只是在修补过去，帮助那些银行和汽车公司脱离困境，
06:25
not preparing us for the future.
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而不是为将来做好准备。
06:27
How much of the money is going into concrete and boosting consumption,
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到底有多少钱投入到了具体的消费增长中，
06:31
not into solving the really profound problems we have to solve.
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而不是用来去解决我们必须解决的真正严重的问题
06:35
And everywhere, as people think about the unprecedented sums
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到处，当人们想到那些空前的巨额资金
06:38
which are being spent of our money and our children's money,
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那些被花掉的我们的钱，我们孩子的钱
06:41
now, in the depth of this crisis, they're asking:
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现在，在这个危机深处，他们在问：
06:43
Surely, we should be using this with a longer-term vision
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想必，我们应该用更长远的眼光
06:47
to accelerate the shift to a green economy,
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来加速朝绿色经济的转变
06:49
to prepare for aging, to deal with some of the inequalities
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来为衰老做好准备，来对付有些不平等
06:52
which scar countries like this and the United States
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这些不平等给这个国家还有美国留下了伤疤
06:56
rather than just giving the money to the incumbents?
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而不只是把钱都给现任者?
06:59
Surely, we should be giving the money to entrepreneurs, to civil society,
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想必，我们应该把钱给企业家，给公民社会
07:02
for people able to create the new,
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使人们能够创新
07:04
not to the big, well-connected companies,
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而不是把钱给大的，关系好的公司，
07:07
big, clunky government programs.
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和庞大的笨重的政府项目。
07:10
And, after all this, as the great Chinese sage Lao Tzu said,
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总而言之，中国伟大的哲人老子说过，
07:14
"Governing a great country is like cooking a small fish.
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“治大国如烹小鲜。"
07:17
Don't overdo it."
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不要做过头。
07:20
And I think more and more people are also asking:
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我觉得越来越多人还在问：
07:23
Why boost consumption, rather than change what we consume?
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为什么刺激消费，而不是改变一下我们所消费的？
07:26
Like the mayor of São Paulo who's banned advertising billboards,
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就像圣保罗的市长，他取缔了广告牌
07:30
or the many cities like San Francisco
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还有许多其他城市，像旧金山
07:32
putting in infrastructures for electric cars.
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进行了电动汽车基础设施的建设
07:35
You can see a bit of the same thing happening in the business world.
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你能看到在商业社会里零星的同样的事情在发生
07:41
Some, I think some of the bankers
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有一些，我觉得有一些银行家
07:43
who have appear to have learned nothing and forgotten nothing.
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好像什么都没有学到，也什么都没忘掉
07:46
But ask yourselves: What will be the biggest sectors of the economy
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但是问一下你们自己：经济中最大的领域将会是什么
07:49
in 10, 20, 30 years time? It won't be the ones lining up for handouts,
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在10，20，30年后？不会是排队等着领救济品的行业
07:53
like cars and aerospace and so on.
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比如汽车，航空航天工业，等等。
07:55
The biggest sector, by far, will be health --
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最大的领域，从目前来看，会是健康-
07:58
already 18 percent of the American economy,
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已占美国经济的百分之十八
08:01
predicted to grow to 30, even 40 percent by mid-century.
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预计到本世纪中会增长到百分之三十，甚至四十。
08:05
Elder care, child care, already much bigger employers than cars.
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老年人护理，儿童护理已经比汽车行业多雇佣很多人
08:09
Education: six, seven, eight percent of the economy and growing.
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教育，占经济的百分之六，七，八，会持续增长
08:13
Environmental services, energy services, the myriad of green jobs,
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环境服务，能源服务，各式各样的绿色工作
08:17
they're all pointing to a very different kind of economy
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它们都指向了一个非常不同的经济形式
08:20
which isn't just about products, but is using distributed networks,
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这种经济形式不只是关于产品，而是要利用分散式网络
08:25
and it's founded above all on care, on relationships,
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并且它首先是建立在关怀和关系之上
08:29
on what people do to other people, often one to one,
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建立在人们对他人的服务之上，而且经常是一对一的服务
08:32
rather than simply selling them a product.
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而不是简单的卖给他们商品
08:37
And I think that what connects the challenge for civil society,
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还有，我认为，现在把对公民社会的挑战
08:40
the challenge for governments and the challenge for business now
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对政府的挑战和对商业的挑战联系起来的
08:43
is, in a way, a very simple one, but quite a difficult one.
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是从某方面来说非常简单的，但也是非常困难的一种东西。
08:47
We know our societies have to radically change.
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我们知道我们的社会必须从根本上改变
08:51
We know we can't go back to where we were before the crisis.
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我们知道我们不能再回到危机之前
08:55
But we also know it's only through experiment
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但同时我们也知道只有通过实验
08:58
that we'll discover exactly how to run a low carbon city,
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我们才会发现怎样运行一个低碳的城市，
09:02
how to care for a much older population,
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怎样照料更大的老龄化人口，
09:05
how to deal with drug addiction and so on.
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怎样解决吸毒问题，等等。
09:09
And here's the problem.
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这里还有个问题。
09:11
In science, we do experiments systematically.
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在科学领域，我们系统的做实验
09:14
Our societies now spend two, three, four percent of GDP
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我们的社会现在会花GDP的百分之二，三，四
09:19
to invest systematically in new discovery, in science, in technology,
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系统地投资新发现，投资科学和技术
09:22
to fuel the pipeline of brilliant inventions
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为杰出发明的输油管道加油
09:25
which illuminate gatherings like this.
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照亮像我们这样的聚会
09:28
It's not that our scientists are necessarily much smarter
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并不是我们的科学家一定
09:30
than they were a hundred years ago, maybe they are,
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比一百年前的更加聪明，他们也许是的，
09:33
but they have a hell of a lot more backing than they ever did.
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但他们以前从没有过这么多的支持
09:37
And what's striking though,
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不过打击人的是，
09:39
is that in society there's almost nothing comparable,
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在社会里我们几乎没什么可以拿来比较的，
09:41
no comparable investment,
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没有可比较的投资，
09:43
no systematic experiment, in the things capitalism isn't very good at,
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在资本主义不擅长事情上，比如热情，或者同情，或者关心，
09:47
like compassion, or empathy, or relationships or care.
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或者关怀上没有过系统的实验。
09:52
Now, I didn't really understand that until I met this guy
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直到我碰到这个人我才真正了解这些
09:55
who was then an 80-year-old, slightly shambolic man
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这个人那时80岁，是个有点散漫的人
09:58
who lived on tomato soup and thought ironing was very overrated.
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靠喝罗宋汤过活，并且认为人们太把熨烫衣服平整当回事
10:03
He had helped shape Britain's post-war institutions,
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他帮助重塑了英国的战后机构，
10:06
its welfare state, its economy,
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它的福利状况，它的经济制度，
10:09
but had sort of reinvented himself as a social entrepreneur,
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但是在某种程度上也重塑了他自己，作为一个社会企业家
10:12
became an inventor of many, many different organizations.
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成为非常多的不同组织的创造者。
10:15
Some famous ones like the Open University, which has 110,000 students,
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有一些非常有名，比如开放大学（Open University），有110,000个学生，
10:20
the University of the Third Age, which has nearly half a million older people
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老年大学有将近50万老年人
10:23
teaching other older people,
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教另外一些老年人，
10:25
as well as strange things like DIY garages and language lines
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还有一些新奇的像在车库里DIY, 电话教授语言
10:30
and schools for social entrepreneurs.
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还有培养社会企业家的学校。
10:32
And he ended his life selling companies to venture capitalists.
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他在生命结束之际把他的公司卖给了风投
10:36
He believed if you see a problem, you shouldn't tell someone to act,
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他相信如果你发现一个问题，你不应该告诉别人去行动，
10:39
you should act on it yourself, and he lived long enough
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你应该自己行动起来，他活得足够长
10:41
and saw enough of his ideas first scorned and then succeed
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看到了足够多的自己的想法先是被嘲笑后来被实现。
10:45
that he said you should always take no as a question and not as an answer.
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他说你应该把“不”当成一个问题，而不是一个答案。
10:51
And his life was a systematic experiment to find better social answers,
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他的一生就是一个寻找更好社会答案的系统实验
10:55
not from a theory, but from experiment, and experiment involving the people
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不是从一个理论中寻找，而是从实验中寻找，这些实验是涉及到对
11:00
with the best intelligence on social needs,
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社会需求最有智慧的人的实验，
11:02
which were usually the people living with those needs.
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这些人通常是有那些有那样需求的人。
11:04
And he believed we live with others, we share the world with others
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他还相信我们和他人一起生活，我们和他人分享世界
11:07
and therefore our innovation must be done with others too,
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因此我们的创新也必须"和"他人一起实现，
11:11
not doing things at people, for them, and so on.
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而不是"对"他人，"为"他人做什么，等等。
11:15
Now, what he did didn't used to have a name,
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他所做的曾经默默无名，
11:19
but I think it's rapidly becoming quite mainstream.
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但我觉得它正在很快地成为主流。
11:22
It's what we do in the organization named after him
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我们在以他名字命名的机构中做的就是这样的事，
11:25
where we try and invent, create, launch new ventures,
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在那里我们尝试，发明，创新，从事新的项目，
11:28
whether it's schools, web companies, health organizations and so on.
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不管是学校，网络公司还是健康机构，等等。
11:32
And we find ourselves part of a very rapidly growing global movement
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我们发现我们是这些机构飞速发展的全球运动的一部分，
11:36
of institutions working on social innovation,
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这些机构致力于社会创新
11:39
using ideas from design or technology or community organizing
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利用设计，科技，或社区团体的想法
11:43
to develop the germs of a future world, but through practice and through demonstration
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孕育出未来世界的幼芽，但是是通过实践，通过论证
11:48
and not through theory.
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而不是通过理论。
11:51
And they're spreading from Korea to Brazil to India to the USA
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它们从韩国传播到巴西，到印度，到美国，
11:54
and across Europe.
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传遍欧洲。
11:57
And they've been given new momentum by the crisis, by the need for better answers
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危机给了它们新的动力，还有对解决诸如失业，社区失效等问题
12:03
to joblessness, community breakdown and so on.
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的需求也给了它们新的动力
12:06
Some of the ideas are strange.
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有些想法很新奇。
12:08
These are complaints choirs.
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这些是抱怨合唱班。
12:10
People come together to sing about the things that really bug them.
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人们聚到一起来歌唱真正使他们烦恼的东西。
12:13
(Laughter)
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(笑声）
12:15
Others are much more pragmatic: health coaches, learning mentors, job clubs.
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还有一些更加实际的，像健康教练，学习辅导员，工作俱乐部。
12:19
And some are quite structural, like social impact bonds
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还有一些是非常结构性的， 像社会影响债券
12:22
where you raise money to invest in diverting teenagers from crime
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你筹钱投资让年轻人远离犯罪
12:26
or helping old people keep out of hospital,
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或者帮助老年人远离医院，
12:28
and you get paid back according to how successful your projects are.
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根据你的项目有多成功，你来收取回报
12:34
Now, the idea that all of this represents,
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现在，所有这些代表了一种观点
12:36
I think, is rapidly becoming a common sense
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我认为已经很快变成了一种常识
12:39
and part of how we respond to the crisis,
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和我们如何应对危机的一部分
12:41
recognizing the need to invest in innovation for social progress
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就是意识到有这种投资需求，要投资在使社会进步的创新上
12:45
as well as technological progress.
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和使科技进步的创新上。
12:47
There were big health innovation funds
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大笔健康创新资金
12:50
launched earlier this year in this country,
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在今年早些时候在这个国家投入使用
12:52
as well as a public service innovation lab.
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还有一个公共服务创新实验室
12:54
Across northern Europe, many governments
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在整个北欧，许多政府
12:56
now have innovation laboratories within them.
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现在在国内都有了创新实验室
12:59
And just a few months ago, President Obama
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就在几个月前，美国总统奥巴马
13:01
launched the Office of Social Innovation in the White House.
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在白宫启动了社会创新办公室
13:04
And what people are beginning to ask is:
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人们开始问这样的问题：
13:06
Surely, just as we invest in R and D, two, three, four percent,
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想必，就像我们用经济的，GDP的百分之二，三，四
13:10
of our GDP, of our economy,
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投资于研发，
13:12
what if we put, let's say, one percent of public spending
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如果我们可以把公共消费的百分之一
13:15
into social innovation, into elder care, new kinds of education,
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投入到社会创新中去，投入到老年护理，和各种教育中
13:19
new ways of helping the disabled?
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还有帮助残疾人的新的途径中去，会发生什么？
13:21
Perhaps we'd achieve similar productivity gains in society
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也许，我们能获得的社会生产力收益
13:25
to those we've had in the economy and in technology.
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和我们投入到经济和科技中得到的收益差不多
13:29
And if, a generation or two ago, the big challenges
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如果说一两代人以前，巨大的挑战
13:31
were ones like getting a man on the moon,
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是把人送上月球
13:34
perhaps the challenges we need to set ourselves now
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那可能现在我们需要应对的挑战
13:37
are ones like eliminating child malnutrition, stopping trafficking,
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就是消除儿童营养失调，人口买卖
13:42
or one, I think closer to home for America or Europe,
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或者是一个对美国或对欧洲来说离家近一点的挑战，
13:44
why don't we set ourselves the goal
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我们为什么不为自己制定这样一个目标
13:46
of achieving a billion extra years of life for today's citizens.
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为今天的公民多赢得十亿年的寿命
13:49
Now those are all goals which could be achieved within a decade,
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这些都是十年内可以实现的目标
13:53
but only with radical and systematic experiment,
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但都必须经过根本上的系统性的实验，
13:57
not just with technologies, but also with lifestyles and culture
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不只是利用科技，还要用生活方式和文化
14:01
and policies and institutions too.
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还有政策和机构来实现
14:05
Now, I want to end by saying a little bit about what I think this means for capitalism.
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最后，作为结束语，我想稍微谈一下这对资本主义的意义。
14:11
I think what this is all about, this whole movement
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我认为这场运动
14:13
which is growing from the margins, remains quite small.
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从边缘开始的运动，仍然很小。
14:16
Nothing like the resources of a CERN or a DARPA or an IBM or a Dupont.
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它不像欧洲核组织，国防先进研究计划局，IBM或者杜邦那样资源丰富♪
14:20
What it's telling us is that capitalism is going to become more social.
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它告诉我们资本主义将变得更加社会化。
14:24
It's already immersed in social networks.
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它已经扎根于社会网络中。
14:26
It will become more involved in social investment, and social care
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它将会更多参与社会投资和社会护理
14:31
and in industries where the value comes from what you do with others,
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参与到这样一些行业，它的价值体现在你和他人一起做了什么，
14:35
not just from what you sell to them,
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而不是你卖给他们什么商品，
14:38
and from relationships as well as from consumption.
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体现在消费也体现在人们的关系上。
14:41
But interestingly too, it implies a future where society learns a few tricks from capitalism
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有趣的是，它暗示了这样一种未来，社会从资本主义中学习到一些窍门
14:46
about how you embed the DNA of restless continual innovation
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有关如何把持续创新的DNA根植于
14:50
into society, trying things out and then growing and scaling the ones that work.
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社会，尝试新的东西，然后发展壮大那些有效的。
14:57
Now, I think this future will be quite surprising to many people.
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我认为这样的未来对很多人来说都是令人惊奇的。
15:01
In recent years, a lot of intelligent people thought that capitalism had basically won.
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近些年来，一大批聪明人认为资本主义基本上赢了。
15:06
History was over
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历史结束了，
15:08
and society would inevitably have to take second place to economy.
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社会不可避免地在经济后屈居二位。
15:13
But I've been struck with a parallel in how people often talk about capitalism today
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但是今天听到人们如何经常谈论资本主义， 谈论200年前的君主制
15:18
and how they talked about the monarchy 200 years ago,
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在法国大革命和君主制在法国复辟后
15:21
just after the French Revolution and the restoration of the monarchy in France.
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我还是被他们类似的观点击倒了。
15:25
Then, people said monarchy dominated everywhere
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当时，人们说君主制统治了所有地方
15:28
because it was rooted in human nature.
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因为它是根生在人性里的。
15:30
We were naturally deferential. We needed hierarchy.
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我们天生是顺从的。我们需要阶层统治。
15:33
Just as today, the enthusiasts of unrestrained capitalism
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就像今天，那些热衷于完全自由的资本主义的人
15:37
say it's rooted in human nature,
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说的资本主义根植于人性中。
15:39
only now it's individualism, inquisitiveness, and so on.
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只是现在是个人主义，爱打听别人隐私，等等。
15:42
Then monarchy had seen off its big challenger, mass democracy,
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后来君主制打败了它的挑战者，大众民主，♪
15:47
which was seen as a well-intentioned but doomed experiment,
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大众民主被认为是善意的，但是注定会失败的实验
15:50
just as capitalism has seen off socialism.
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就像现在资本主义打败了社会主义。
15:53
Even Fidel Castro now says that the only thing worse
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甚至卡斯特罗现在也说，只有一件事
15:56
than being exploited by multinational capitalism
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被比跨国资本主义剥削还要坏
15:58
is not being exploited by multinational capitalism.
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那就是不被跨国资本主义剥削。
16:03
And whereas then monarchies, palaces and forts dominated every city skyline
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尽管当时君主制，宫殿，堡垒战领了每一个城市的地平线，
16:07
and looked permanent and confident,
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而且看上去永久和自信，
16:09
today it's the gleaming towers of the banks which dominate every big city.
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但今天却是银行大楼的闪亮塔尖占领了每一个大城市。
16:13
I'm not suggesting the crowds are about to storm the barricades
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我不是建议人群去冲击街垒
16:16
and string up every investment banker from the nearest lamppost,
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并且在最近的路灯柱上吊死每一个投资银行家，
16:20
though that might be quite tempting.
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尽管那听上去确实蛮诱人的。
16:22
But I do think we're on the verge of a period when,
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但我真的认为我们正处在一个时代的边上，
16:25
just as happened to the monarchy and, interestingly, the military too,
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就像发生在君主制，还有军事上一样，
16:29
the central position of finance capital is going to come to an end,
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当金融资本的中心位置将要结束，
16:33
and it's going to steadily move to the sides, the margins of our society,
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它将会逐步移到边上，移向社会的边缘，
16:37
transformed from being a master into a servant,
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从主人变成仆人，
16:40
a servant to the productive economy and of human needs.
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一个服务于生产性经济和人类需要的仆人。
16:44
And as that happens,
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当那发生时，
16:46
we will remember something very simple and obvious about capitalism,
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我们会想起一些有关资本主义的简单而又明显的事实，
16:49
which is that, unlike what you read in economics textbooks,
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就是，并不像你在经济教科书中读到的，
16:52
it's not a self-sufficient system.
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它并不是一个自给自足的系统。
16:55
It depends on other systems,
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它依靠于其他系统，
16:57
on ecology, on family, on community,
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依靠生态学，依靠家庭，依靠社区，
17:00
and if these aren't replenished, capitalism suffers too.
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当这些都没有补足，资本主义也会变糟。
17:04
And our human nature isn't just selfish, it's also compassionate.
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我们的人性中并不只有自私，它还有同情心。
17:09
It's not just competitive, it's also caring.
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不光有竞争，还有关怀。
17:14
Because of the depth of the crisis, I think we are at a moment of choice.
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因为这次危机之深，我们处在一个选择的时刻。
17:19
The crisis is almost certainly deepening around us.
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危机几乎在我们周围不断深化。
17:22
It will be worse at the end of this year,
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到今年年底将更糟，
17:24
quite possibly worse in a year's time than it is today.
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很有可能一年后更加糟糕。
17:27
But this is one of those very rare moments
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但是这也是那种稀有时刻之一
17:30
when we have to choose whether we're just pedaling furiously
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当我们必须选择是愤怒地踏步
17:33
to get back to where we were a year or two ago,
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回到我们一年或两年前
17:36
and a very narrow idea of what the economy is for,
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对经济到底是为什么服务有一个很狭隘的想法
17:40
or whether this is a moment to jump ahead, to reboot
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还是这是一个向前跳跃的时刻，重新启动
17:45
and to do some of the things we probably should have been doing anyway.
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做一些我们很可能原来就应该做的事情。
17:48
Thank you.
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谢谢。
17:50
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Geoff Mulgan - Social commentatorGeoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy that pioneers ideas in fields such as aging, education and poverty reduction. He’s the founder of the think-tank Demos, and the author of "The Art of Public Strategy."
Why you should listen
Geoff Mulgan is director of the Young Foundation, a center for social innovation, social enterprise and public policy with a 50-year history of creating new organisations and pioneering ideas in fields as varied as aging, education, healthcare and poverty reduction.
Before the Young Foundation, Geoff Mulgan has held various roles in the UK government including director of the Government's Strategy Unit and head of policy in the Prime Minister's office, and he was the founder of the think-tank Demos. He is chairing a Carnegie Inquiry into the Future of Civil Society in the UK and Ireland. His most recent book is The Art of Public Strategy: Mobilising Power and Knowledge for the Common Good.
Geoff Mulgan | Speaker | TED.com