TED2018
Steven Pinker: Is the world getting better or worse? A look at the numbers
Stiven Pinker (Steven Pinker): Da li svet postaje bolji ili gori? Osvrt na cifre
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Da li je 2017. zaista bila „najgora godina u istoriji", kao što bi neki želeli da verujemo? U ovoj analizi skorašnjih podataka o ubistvima, ratu, siromaštvu, zagađenju itd, psiholog Stiven Pinker otkriva da nam ide bolje po svim ovim pitanjima nego kada se ona uporede sa stanjem od pre 30 godina. Međutim, napredak nije neizbežan, i ne znači da sve postaje bolje za sve sve vreme, kaže Pinker. Nasuprot tome, napredak je rešavanje problema i trebalo bi da posmatramo stvari, poput klimatskih promena i nuklearnog rata kao na probleme koje bi trebalo rešiti, a ne kao na apokalipse u najavi. "Nikada nećemo da imamo savršen svet, i bilo bi opasno tragati za njim", kaže. "Međutim, ne postoje granice poboljšanjima koja možemo da postignemo, ako nastavimo da primenjujemo znanje kako bismo uvećali ljudski procvat."
Steven Pinker - Psychologist
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Steven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Many people face the news each morning
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Mnogi ljudi se suočavaju
s vestima svakog jutra
s vestima svakog jutra
00:16
with trepidation and dread.
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sa strepnjom i jezom.
00:18
Every day, we read of shootings,
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Svakog dana čitamo o pucnjavama,
00:21
inequality, pollution, dictatorship,
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nejednakosti, zagađenju, diktaturi,
00:25
war and the spread of nuclear weapons.
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ratu i širenju nuklearnog oružja.
00:28
These are some of the reasons
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Ovo su neki od razloga
00:30
that 2016 was called
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
the "Worst. Year. Ever."
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zbog kojih je 2016. nazvana
„Najgora. Godina. Ikad."
„Najgora. Godina. Ikad."
00:35
Until 2017 claimed that record --
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A onda je 2017. oborila rekord -
00:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:39
and left many people longing
for earlier decades,
for earlier decades,
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i ostavila mnoge ljude da žude
za ranijim decenijama,
za ranijim decenijama,
00:42
when the world seemed safer,
cleaner and more equal.
cleaner and more equal.
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kada se svet činio bezbednijim,
čistijim i s više jednakosti.
čistijim i s više jednakosti.
00:46
But is this a sensible way
to understand the human condition
to understand the human condition
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Međutim, da li je ovo razuman način
da razumemo ljudsko stanje
da razumemo ljudsko stanje
00:50
in the 21st century?
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u XXI veku?
00:52
As Franklin Pierce Adams pointed out,
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Kako je Frenklin Pirs Adams istakao:
00:54
"Nothing is more responsible
for the good old days
for the good old days
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„Ništa nije zaslužnije za dobre stare dane
00:57
than a bad memory."
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od lošeg pamćenja."
00:58
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:01
You can always fool yourself
into seeing a decline
into seeing a decline
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Uvek možete da prevarite sebe
i da vidite propadanje,
i da vidite propadanje,
01:05
if you compare bleeding
headlines of the present
headlines of the present
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ako poredite krvave naslove iz sadašnjosti
01:07
with rose-tinted images of the past.
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sa ružičastim prizorima iz prošlosti.
01:10
What does the trajectory
of the world look like
of the world look like
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Kako izgleda putanja sveta
01:13
when we measure well-being over time
using a constant yardstick?
using a constant yardstick?
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kada merimo dobrobit tokom vremena
koristeći nepromenjivo merilo?
koristeći nepromenjivo merilo?
01:17
Let's compare the most recent
data on the present
data on the present
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Uporedimo poslednje podatke o sadašnjosti
01:20
with the same measures 30 years ago.
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sa istim merenjima od pre 30 godina.
01:23
Last year, Americans killed each other
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
at a rate of 5.3 per hundred thousand,
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Prošle godine, stopa ubijenih Amerikanaca
je bila 5.3 na sto hiljada,
je bila 5.3 na sto hiljada,
01:28
had seven percent
of their citizens in poverty
of their citizens in poverty
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sedam procenata Amerikanaca
je živelo u siromaštvu
je živelo u siromaštvu
01:31
and emitted 21 million tons
of particulate matter
of particulate matter
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i oslobodili su 21 milon tona čestica
01:35
and four million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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kao i četiri miliona tona sumpor-dioksida.
01:38
But 30 years ago, the homicide rate
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
was 8.5 per hundred thousand,
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Međutim, pre 30 godina stopa ubistava
je bila 8.5 na sto hiljada,
je bila 8.5 na sto hiljada,
01:42
poverty rate was 12 percent
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stopa siromaštva je bila 12 procenata
01:44
and we emitted 35 million tons
of particulate matter
of particulate matter
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i oslobodili smo 35 milona tona čestica
01:47
and 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide.
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i 20 miliona tona sumpor-dioksida.
01:51
What about the world as a whole?
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Šta je sa celokupnim svetom?
01:53
Last year, the world had 12 ongoing wars,
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Prošle godine u svetu se vodilo 12 ratova,
01:56
60 autocracies,
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bilo je 60 autokratija,
01:59
10 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
in extreme poverty
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10 procenata svetske populacije
je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu
je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu
02:02
and more than 10,000 nuclear weapons.
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i imali smo preko 10.000
nuklearnog oružja.
nuklearnog oružja.
02:05
But 30 years ago, there were 23 wars,
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Međutim, pre 30 godina imali smo 23 rata,
02:08
85 autocracies,
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85 autokratija,
02:10
37 percent of the world population
in extreme poverty
in extreme poverty
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37 procenata svetske populacije
je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu
je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu
02:13
and more than 60,000 nuclear weapons.
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i imali smo preko 60.000
nuklearnog oružja.
nuklearnog oružja.
02:17
True, last year was a terrible year
for terrorism in Western Europe,
for terrorism in Western Europe,
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Istina, prošla godina je bila užasna
zbog terorizma u Zapadnoj Evropi,
zbog terorizma u Zapadnoj Evropi,
02:21
with 238 deaths,
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sa 238 mrtvih,
02:24
but 1988 was worse with 440 deaths.
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ali 1988. je bila gora sa 440 mrtvih.
02:28
What's going on?
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Šta se dešava?
02:30
Was 1988 a particularly bad year?
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Da li je 1988. bila naročito loša godina?
02:33
Or are these improvements a sign
that the world, for all its struggles,
that the world, for all its struggles,
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Ili su ovi napreci znak
da svet, uprkos previranjima,
da svet, uprkos previranjima,
02:37
gets better over time?
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vremenom postaje bolji?
02:39
Might we even invoke the admittedly
old-fashioned notion of progress?
old-fashioned notion of progress?
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Da li bismo mogli da prizovemo
opštepoznati staromodni pojam napretka?
opštepoznati staromodni pojam napretka?
02:45
To do so is to court
a certain amount of derision,
a certain amount of derision,
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Ako učinite tako prizivate
određenu dozu poruge
određenu dozu poruge
02:49
because I have found
that intellectuals hate progress.
that intellectuals hate progress.
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jer sam otkrio da intelektualci
mrze napredak.
mrze napredak.
02:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:54
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:57
And intellectuals who call themselves
progressive really hate progress.
progressive really hate progress.
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A intelektualci koji sebe nazivaju
progresivnim zaista mrze napredak.
progresivnim zaista mrze napredak.
03:01
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:02
Now, it's not that they hate
the fruits of progress, mind you.
the fruits of progress, mind you.
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Sad, nije da oni mrze
plodove napretka, takoreći.
plodove napretka, takoreći.
03:05
Most academics and pundits
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Većina akademika i stručnjaka
03:08
would rather have their surgery
with anesthesia than without it.
with anesthesia than without it.
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bi radije imali operaciju
sa anestezijom nego bez nje.
sa anestezijom nego bez nje.
03:13
It's the idea of progress
that rankles the chattering class.
that rankles the chattering class.
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Radi se o ideji napretka
koja uznemirava brbljivu klasu.
koja uznemirava brbljivu klasu.
03:17
If you believe that humans
can improve their lot, I have been told,
can improve their lot, I have been told,
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Ako verujete da ljudi mogu da unaprede
svoju sudbinu, rečeno mi je,
svoju sudbinu, rečeno mi je,
03:21
that means that you have a blind faith
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da to znači da slepo verujete
03:23
and a quasi-religious belief
in the outmoded superstition
in the outmoded superstition
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u kvazi-religijsko ubeđenje
u zastarelo sujeverje
u zastarelo sujeverje
03:28
and the false promise
of the myth of the onward march
of the myth of the onward march
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i lažno obećanje mita o maršu unapred
03:31
of inexorable progress.
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neumitnog napretka.
03:34
You are a cheerleader
for vulgar American can-doism,
for vulgar American can-doism,
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Vi ste navijač vulgarnog
američkog moguizma
američkog moguizma
03:39
with the rah-rah spirit
of boardroom ideology,
of boardroom ideology,
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sa ša-la-la duhom ideologije odbora:
03:42
Silicon Valley
and the Chamber of Commerce.
and the Chamber of Commerce.
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Silicijumske doline i Trgovinske komore.
03:45
You are a practitioner of Whig history,
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Praktikant ste istorije Vigovaca,
03:48
a naive optimist, a Pollyanna
and, of course, a Pangloss,
and, of course, a Pangloss,
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naivni optimista, Polijana,
i, naravno, Panglos,
i, naravno, Panglos,
03:52
alluding to the Voltaire
character who declared,
character who declared,
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aludirajući na Volterovog lika
koji je izjavio:
koji je izjavio:
03:55
"All is for the best
in the best of all possible worlds."
in the best of all possible worlds."
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„Sve je zarad najboljeg
u najboljem od svih mogućih svetova."
u najboljem od svih mogućih svetova."
03:58
Well, Professor Pangloss,
as it happens, was a pessimist.
as it happens, was a pessimist.
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Pa, profesor Panglos
slučajno je pesimista.
slučajno je pesimista.
Istinski optimista veruje
da mnogo bolji svetovi mogu da postoje
da mnogo bolji svetovi mogu da postoje
04:01
A true optimist believes
there can be much better worlds
there can be much better worlds
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04:04
than the one we have today.
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od onog koji danas imamo.
04:06
But all of this is irrelevant,
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Međutim, sve ovo je nevažno
04:07
because the question
of whether progress has taken place
of whether progress has taken place
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jer pitanje da li se napredak desio
04:10
is not a matter of faith
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nije stvar vere
04:12
or having an optimistic temperament
or seeing the glass as half full.
or seeing the glass as half full.
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ili posedovanja optimističnog temperamenta
ili posmatranja čaše kao polupune.
ili posmatranja čaše kao polupune.
04:16
It's a testable hypothesis.
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To je proverljiva hipoteza.
04:18
For all their differences,
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Koliko god se neslagali,
04:20
people largely agree
on what goes into human well-being:
on what goes into human well-being:
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ljudi se mahom slažu
povodom toga šta je ljudska dobrobit:
povodom toga šta je ljudska dobrobit:
04:24
life, health, sustenance, prosperity,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
peace, freedom, safety, knowledge,
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život, zdravlje, hrana, prosperitet,
mir, sloboda, bezbednost, znanje,
mir, sloboda, bezbednost, znanje,
04:30
leisure, happiness.
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dokolica, sreća.
04:32
All of these things can be measured.
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Sve ovo može da se meri.
04:34
If they have improved over time,
that, I submit, is progress.
that, I submit, is progress.
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Ako su se popravili tokom vremena,
to prihvatam kao napredak.
to prihvatam kao napredak.
04:38
Let's go to the data,
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Pređimo na podatke,
04:40
beginning with the most
precious thing of all, life.
precious thing of all, life.
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počinjući sa najdragocenijom
stvari od svih: životom.
stvari od svih: životom.
04:43
For most of human history,
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
life expectancy at birth was around 30.
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Većim delom ljudske istorije
životni vek po rođenju je bio oko 30.
životni vek po rođenju je bio oko 30.
04:48
Today, worldwide, it is more than 70,
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Danas, širom sveta, prelazi 70 godina,
04:51
and in the developed parts of the world,
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a u razvijenim delovima sveta,
04:53
more than 80.
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prelazi 80.
04:55
250 years ago, in the richest
countries of the world,
countries of the world,
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Pre 250 godina, u najbogatijim
državama sveta,
državama sveta,
04:58
a third of the children
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
did not live to see their fifth birthday,
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trećina dece ne bi doživela
svoj peti rođendan,
svoj peti rođendan,
05:02
before the risk was brought
down a hundredfold.
down a hundredfold.
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pre nego što je rizik umanjen stostruko.
05:05
Today, that fate befalls
less than six percent of children
less than six percent of children
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Danas, ta sudbina će da snađe
manje od šest procenata dece
manje od šest procenata dece
05:08
in the poorest countries of the world.
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u najsiromašnijim državama sveta.
05:11
Famine is one of the Four Horsemen
of the Apocalypse.
of the Apocalypse.
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Glad je jedan od četiri jahača apokalipse.
05:15
It could bring devastation
to any part of the world.
to any part of the world.
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Može da donese uništenje
u bilo koji deo sveta.
u bilo koji deo sveta.
05:18
Today, famine has been banished
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Danas, glad je prognana
05:20
to the most remote
and war-ravaged regions.
and war-ravaged regions.
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u najudaljenije i ratom razorene regije.
05:23
200 years ago, 90 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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Pre 200 godina, 90 procenata
svetske populacije
svetske populacije
05:26
subsisted in extreme poverty.
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je živelo u ekstremnom siromaštvu.
05:29
Today, fewer than 10 percent of people do.
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Danas tako živi manje od 10 procenata.
05:32
For most of human history,
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Većim delom ljudske istorije,
05:34
the powerful states and empires
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moćne države i carstva
05:36
were pretty much always
at war with each other,
at war with each other,
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su gotovo uvek bile
u ratu jedne s drugima,
u ratu jedne s drugima,
05:38
and peace was a mere
interlude between wars.
interlude between wars.
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a mir je bio puka pauza između ratova.
05:42
Today, they are never
at war with each other.
at war with each other.
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Danas, uopšte međusobno ne ratuju.
05:44
The last great power war
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Poslednji rat velikih sila
05:46
pitted the United States
against China 65 years ago.
against China 65 years ago.
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je okrenuo Sjedinjene Države
protiv Kine pre 65 godina.
protiv Kine pre 65 godina.
05:50
More recently, wars of all kinds
have become fewer and less deadly.
have become fewer and less deadly.
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U skorije vreme, ratovi u svakom obliku
su postali ređi i manje smrtonosni.
su postali ređi i manje smrtonosni.
05:54
The annual rate of war has fallen from
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
about 22 per hundred thousand per year
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Godišnja stopa rata je pala
sa oko 22 na sto hiljada godišnje
sa oko 22 na sto hiljada godišnje
05:59
in the early '50s to 1.2 today.
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u ranim '50-im na 1,2 danas.
06:03
Democracy has suffered obvious setbacks
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Demokratija je pretrpela
očigledno nazadovanje
očigledno nazadovanje
06:05
in Venezuela, in Russia, in Turkey
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u Venecueli, Rusiji, Turskoj
06:09
and is threatened by the rise
of authoritarian populism
of authoritarian populism
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i preti joj uspon autoritarnog populizma
06:12
in Eastern Europe and the United States.
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u Istočnoj Evropi i Sjedinjenim Državama.
06:15
Yet the world has never been
more democratic
more democratic
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Ipak, svet nikad nije bio demokratičniji
06:17
than it has been in the past decade,
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nego što je bio u protekloj deceniji,
06:19
with two-thirds of the world's people
living in democracies.
living in democracies.
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sa dve trećine ljudi u svetu
koji su živeli u demokratijama.
koji su živeli u demokratijama.
06:24
Homicide rates plunge whenever anarchy
and the code of vendetta
and the code of vendetta
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Stope ubistava se strmoglavljuju uvek
kad anarhiju i zakon osvete
kad anarhiju i zakon osvete
06:28
are replaced by the rule of law.
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zameni vladavina prava.
06:30
It happened when feudal Europe was brought
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
under the control of centralized kingdoms,
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To se desilo kada je feudalna Evropa pala
pod kontrolu centralizovanih kraljevstava,
pod kontrolu centralizovanih kraljevstava,
06:35
so that today a Western European
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pa danas Zapadnoevropljanin
06:37
has 1/35th the chance of being murdered
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ima šanse 1/35 da bude ubijen
06:39
compared to his medieval ancestors.
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u odnosu na svoje srednjovekovne pretke.
06:42
It happened again in colonial New England,
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Desilo se ponovo
u kolonijalnoj Novoj Engleskoj,
u kolonijalnoj Novoj Engleskoj,
06:44
in the American Wild West
when the sheriffs moved to town,
when the sheriffs moved to town,
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na američkom Dviljem zapadu
kada su se šerifi doselili u grad,
kada su se šerifi doselili u grad,
06:48
and in Mexico.
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kao i u Meksiku.
06:50
Indeed, we've become safer
in just about every way.
in just about every way.
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Zaista, postali smo bezbedniji
skoro na svim poljima.
skoro na svim poljima.
06:54
Over the last century,
we've become 96 percent less likely
we've become 96 percent less likely
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U proteklom veku
umanjili smo za 96% šanse
umanjili smo za 96% šanse
06:58
to be killed in a car crash,
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da poginemo u udesu,
07:00
88 percent less likely
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
to be mowed down on the sidewalk,
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za 88% su nam manje šanse
da nas pokose na trotoaru,
da nas pokose na trotoaru,
07:04
99 percent less likely
to die in a plane crash,
to die in a plane crash,
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za 99% su nam manje šanse
da poginemo u padu aviona,
da poginemo u padu aviona,
07:08
95 percent less likely
to be killed on the job,
to be killed on the job,
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za 95% su nam manje šanse
da poginemo na radnom mestu,
da poginemo na radnom mestu,
07:11
89 percent less likely
to be killed by an act of God,
to be killed by an act of God,
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za 89% su nam manje šanse
da poginemo od strane više sile,
da poginemo od strane više sile,
07:15
such as a drought, flood,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
wildfire, storm, volcano,
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poput suše, poplave,
požara, oluje, vulkana,
požara, oluje, vulkana,
07:19
landslide, earthquake or meteor strike,
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odrona, zemljotresa ili kiše meteora,
07:22
presumably not because God
has become less angry with us
has become less angry with us
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verovatno ne zato što je bog
postao manje ljut na nas,
postao manje ljut na nas,
07:25
but because of improvements
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
in the resilience of our infrastructure.
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već zbog napretka u izdržljivosti
naše infrastrukture.
naše infrastrukture.
07:30
And what about
the quintessential act of God,
the quintessential act of God,
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A šta je sa suštinskim božjim činom,
07:33
the projectile hurled by Zeus himself?
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projektilom poslanim lično od Zevsa?
07:36
Yes, we are 97 percent less likely
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
to be killed by a bolt of lightning.
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Da, procenat verovatnoće da nas ubije
grom je umanjen za 97%.
grom je umanjen za 97%.
07:43
Before the 17th century,
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Pre XVII veka,
07:45
no more than 15 percent of Europeans
could read or write.
could read or write.
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ne više od 15 procenata Evropljana
je moglo da čita ili piše.
je moglo da čita ili piše.
07:48
Europe and the United States
achieved universal literacy
achieved universal literacy
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Evropa i Sjedinjene Države
su postigli univerzalnu pismenost
su postigli univerzalnu pismenost
07:51
by the middle of the 20th century,
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do sredine XX veka,
07:53
and the rest of the world is catching up.
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a ostatak sveta ih sustiže.
07:56
Today, more than 90 percent
of the world's population
of the world's population
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Danas, preko 90 procenata
svetske populacije
svetske populacije
07:59
under the age of 25 can read and write.
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mlađe od 25 godina zna da čita i piše.
08:03
In the 19th century, Westerners
worked more than 60 hours per week.
worked more than 60 hours per week.
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U XIX veku, zapadnjaci
su radili preko 60 sati nedeljno.
su radili preko 60 sati nedeljno.
08:07
Today, they work fewer than 40.
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Danas rade manje od 40.
08:10
Thanks to the universal penetration
of running water and electricity
of running water and electricity
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Zahvaljujući univerzalnom prodoru
tekuće vode i električne energije
tekuće vode i električne energije
08:14
in the developed world
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u razvijenom svetu
08:16
and the widespread adoption
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
of washing machines, vacuum cleaners,
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i širokoj primeni
mašina za veš, usisivača,
mašina za veš, usisivača,
08:20
refrigerators, dishwashers,
stoves and microwaves,
stoves and microwaves,
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frižidera, mašina za sudove,
rerni i mikrotalasnih pećnica,
rerni i mikrotalasnih pećnica,
08:24
the amount of our lives
that we forfeit to housework
that we forfeit to housework
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udeo naših života
koje posvećujemo kućnim poslovima
koje posvećujemo kućnim poslovima
08:27
has fallen from 60 hours a week
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je pao sa 60 sati nedeljno
08:29
to fewer than 15 hours a week.
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1960
na manje od 15 sati nedeljno.
08:32
Do all of these gains in health,
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
wealth, safety, knowledge and leisure
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Da li nas svi ovi dobici u zdravlju,
bogatstvu, bezbednosti, znanju i dokolici
bogatstvu, bezbednosti, znanju i dokolici
08:37
make us any happier?
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čine srećnijim?
08:39
The answer is yes.
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Odgovor je da.
08:40
In 86 percent of the world's countries,
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U 86% država u svetu
08:42
happiness has increased in recent decades.
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sreća je uvećana u nedavnim decenijama.
08:45
Well, I hope to have convinced you
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Pa, nadam se da sam vas ubedio
08:47
that progress is not a matter
of faith or optimism,
of faith or optimism,
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da napredak nije pitanje
vere, niti optimizma,
vere, niti optimizma,
08:51
but is a fact of human history,
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već se radi o činjenici ljudske istorije,
08:53
indeed the greatest fact in human history.
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uisitnu najvećoj činjenici
ljudske istorije.
ljudske istorije.
08:56
And how has this fact
been covered in the news?
been covered in the news?
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A kako se ova činjenica
obrađuje u vestima?
obrađuje u vestima?
08:59
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:03
A tabulation of positive and negative
emotion words in news stories
emotion words in news stories
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Tabelisanje pozitivnih i negativnih
emocionalnih reči u pričama iz vesti
emocionalnih reči u pričama iz vesti
09:07
has shown that during the decades
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
in which humanity has gotten healthier,
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je pokazalo da je tokom decenija u kojima
je čovečanstvo postajalo zdravije,
je čovečanstvo postajalo zdravije,
09:11
wealthier, wiser, safer and happier,
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bogatije, mudrije, bezbednije i srećnije,
09:13
the "New York Times"
has become increasingly morose
has become increasingly morose
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"Njujork tajms" je postajao sve turobniji
09:18
and the world's broadcasts too
have gotten steadily glummer.
have gotten steadily glummer.
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kao i svetski mediji koji su sve češće
postajali mrzovoljniji.
postajali mrzovoljniji.
09:22
Why don't people appreciate progress?
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Zašto ljudi ne cene napredak?
09:25
Part of the answer comes
from our cognitive psychology.
from our cognitive psychology.
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Odgovor delimično potiče
iz naše kognitivne psihologije.
iz naše kognitivne psihologije.
09:28
We estimate risk using a mental shortcut
called the "availability heuristic."
called the "availability heuristic."
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Ocenjujemo rizik upotrebom umne prečice
koja se naziva "heuristikom dostupnosti".
koja se naziva "heuristikom dostupnosti".
09:33
The easier it is to recall
something from memory,
something from memory,
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Što je lakše setiti se nečega iz pamćenja,
09:36
the more probable we judge it to be.
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2000
time prosuđujemo njegovu verovatnoću.
09:39
The other part of the answer
comes from the nature of journalism,
comes from the nature of journalism,
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Drugi deo odgovora potiče
iz prirode novinarstva,
iz prirode novinarstva,
09:42
captured in this satirical headline
from "The Onion,"
from "The Onion,"
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koja je obuhvaćena
ovim satiričnim naslovom iz "Oniona":
ovim satiričnim naslovom iz "Oniona":
"Si-En-En imao jutarnji sastanak
da bi odlučili
da bi odlučili
09:46
"CNN Holds Morning Meeting to Decide
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09:48
What Viewers Should
Panic About For Rest of Day."
Panic About For Rest of Day."
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zbog čega bi gledaoci
trebalo da paniče do kraja dana."
trebalo da paniče do kraja dana."
09:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
09:52
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
09:57
News is about stuff that happens,
not stuff that doesn't happen.
not stuff that doesn't happen.
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Vesti su o onome što se dešava,
ne o onome što se ne dešava.
ne o onome što se ne dešava.
10:01
You never see a journalist who says,
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Nikada niste videli novinara koji govori:
10:03
"I'm reporting live from a country
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
that has been at peace for 40 years,"
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„Izveštavam uživo iz države
koja je u miru već 40 godina",
koja je u miru već 40 godina",
10:07
or a city that has not
been attacked by terrorists.
been attacked by terrorists.
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ili o gradu u kome se nije desio
teroristički napad.
teroristički napad.
10:10
Also, bad things can happen quickly,
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Takođe, loše stvari mogu brzo da se dese,
10:13
but good things aren't built in a day.
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a dobre stvari se ne dešavaju preko noći.
10:15
The papers could have run the headline,
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Novine su mogle da imaju naslov:
10:17
"137,000 people escaped
from extreme poverty yesterday"
from extreme poverty yesterday"
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„137.000 ljudi je juče izašlo
iz ekstremnog siromaštva"
iz ekstremnog siromaštva"
10:22
every day for the last 25 years.
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svakog dana u proteklih 25 godina.
10:24
That's one and a quarter billion people
leaving poverty behind,
leaving poverty behind,
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To je jedna i četvrtina milijardi
ljudi kojima je siromaštvo prošlost,
ljudi kojima je siromaštvo prošlost,
10:29
but you never read about it.
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2016
ali nikada ne čitate o tome.
10:31
Also, the news capitalizes
on our morbid interest
on our morbid interest
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Takođe, vesti prihoduju
od naših morbidnih interesovanja
od naših morbidnih interesovanja
o tome šta bi moglo poći po zlu,
10:34
in what can go wrong,
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10:35
captured in the programming policy,
"If it bleeds, it leads."
"If it bleeds, it leads."
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koje je obuhvaćeno programskom
politikom: "Ako ima krvi, biće i publike".
politikom: "Ako ima krvi, biće i publike".
10:40
Well, if you combine our cognitive biases
with the nature of news,
with the nature of news,
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Pa, ako kombinujete naše kognitivne
predrasude sa prirodom vesti,
predrasude sa prirodom vesti,
10:43
you can see why the world
has been coming to an end
has been coming to an end
201
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videćete zašto se svetu bliži kraj
10:46
for a very long time indeed.
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1960
uistinu već poduže vremena.
Osvrnuću se na neka pitanja o napretku
10:50
Let me address
some questions about progress
some questions about progress
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10:52
that no doubt have occurred
to many of you.
to many of you.
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koja su bez sumnje
mnogima od vas pala na pamet.
mnogima od vas pala na pamet.
10:56
First, isn't it good to be pessimistic
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Pre svega, zar nije dobro
biti pesimističan
biti pesimističan
10:59
to safeguard against complacency,
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kako bi se zaštitili od pomirljivosti,
11:01
to rake the muck, to speak truth to power?
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razotkrili prljave igrače,
rekli istinu onima na vlasti?
rekli istinu onima na vlasti?
11:04
Well, not exactly.
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Pa, ne baš.
11:06
It's good to be accurate.
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1976
Dobro je biti precizan.
11:08
Of course we should be aware
of suffering and danger
of suffering and danger
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Naravno, trebalo bi da smo svesni
patnje i opasnosti
patnje i opasnosti
11:10
wherever they occur,
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gde god da se dese,
no takođe bi trebalo da smo svesni
toga kako možemo da ih umanjimo
toga kako možemo da ih umanjimo
11:12
but we should also be aware
of how they can be reduced,
of how they can be reduced,
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11:15
because there are dangers
to indiscriminate pessimism.
to indiscriminate pessimism.
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jer opasnost leži
u nediskriminatorskom pesimizmu.
u nediskriminatorskom pesimizmu.
11:18
One of them is fatalism.
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Jedan od tih je fatalizam.
11:20
If all our efforts at improving the world
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Ako su svi naši napori da unapredimo svet
11:22
have been in vain,
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bili uzaludni,
11:23
why throw good money after bad?
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1856
zašto bismo bacali novac u bescenje?
11:25
The poor will always be with you.
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Siromašni će uvek da budu tu.
11:28
And since the world will end soon --
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A kako će svetu uskoro doći kraj -
ako nas klimatske promene sve ne potamane,
11:30
if climate change doesn't kill us all,
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11:32
then runaway artificial
intelligence will --
intelligence will --
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uradiće će to odbegla
veštačka inteligencija -
veštačka inteligencija -
11:34
a natural response is
to enjoy life while we can,
to enjoy life while we can,
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prirodan odgovor je da uživamo
u životu dok možemo,
u životu dok možemo,
11:38
eat, drink and be merry,
for tomorrow we die.
for tomorrow we die.
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jedemo, pijemo i radujemo se
jer ćemo sutra da umremo.
jer ćemo sutra da umremo.
11:42
The other danger of thoughtless
pessimism is radicalism.
pessimism is radicalism.
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Druga opasnost nepromišljenog
pesimizma je radikalizam.
pesimizma je radikalizam.
11:46
If our institutions are all failing
and beyond hope for reform,
and beyond hope for reform,
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Ako naše institucije ne funkcionišu
i nema nade za reforme,
i nema nade za reforme,
11:50
a natural response
is to seek to smash the machine,
is to seek to smash the machine,
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prirodan odgovor
je da se teži uništenju mašine,
je da se teži uništenju mašine,
11:53
drain the swamp,
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da se isuši močvara,
11:55
burn the empire to the ground,
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carstvo spali do temelja,
11:56
on the hope that whatever
rises out of the ashes
rises out of the ashes
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s nadom da šta god da se podigne iz pepela
12:00
is bound to be better
than what we have now.
than what we have now.
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sigurno će da bude bolje
od onoga što trenutno imamo.
od onoga što trenutno imamo.
12:03
Well, if there is
such a thing as progress,
such a thing as progress,
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Pa, ako postoji nešto takvo kao napredak,
12:06
what causes it?
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šta ga uzrokuje?
12:07
Progress is not some mystical force
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
or dialectic lifting us ever higher.
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Napredak nije neka tajnovita sila
ili dijalektičko uznošenje više i više.
ili dijalektičko uznošenje više i više.
12:12
It's not a mysterious arc of history
bending toward justice.
bending toward justice.
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Nije to tajanstveni svod istorije
koji se poginje ka pravdi.
koji se poginje ka pravdi.
12:16
It's the result of human efforts
governed by an idea,
governed by an idea,
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To je rezultat ljudskih napora
koje vodi ideja,
koje vodi ideja,
12:19
an idea that we associate
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
with the 18th century Enlightenment,
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ideja koju povezujemo
sa prosvetiteljstvom iz XVIII veka,
sa prosvetiteljstvom iz XVIII veka,
12:23
namely that if we apply reason and science
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pre svega da, ako primenimo razum i nauku
12:28
that enhance human well-being,
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koji naglašavaju ljudsku dobrobit,
12:30
we can gradually succeed.
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vremenom ćemo da uspemo.
12:32
Is progress inevitable? Of course not.
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Da li je napredak neizbežan?
Naravno da nije.
Naravno da nije.
12:36
Progress does not mean
that everything becomes better
that everything becomes better
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Napredak ne znači da sve postaje bolje
12:39
for everyone everywhere all the time.
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za svakoga, svuda, sve vreme.
12:42
That would be a miracle,
and progress is not a miracle
and progress is not a miracle
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To bi bilo čudo, a napredak nije čudo,
12:45
but problem-solving.
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već rešavanje problema.
12:47
Problems are inevitable
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Problemi su neizbežni,
12:49
and solutions create new problems
which have to be solved in their turn.
which have to be solved in their turn.
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a rešenja stvaraju nove probleme
koje u tom slučaju treba rešiti.
koje u tom slučaju treba rešiti.
12:53
The unsolved problems
facing the world today are gargantuan,
facing the world today are gargantuan,
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Nerešeni problemi sa kojima se
suočava današnji svet su džinovski,
suočava današnji svet su džinovski,
12:57
including the risks of climate change
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uključujući i rizik od klimatskih promena
13:00
and nuclear war,
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i nuklearnog rata,
ali moramo da gledamo na njih
kao na probleme koje treba rešiti,
kao na probleme koje treba rešiti,
13:01
but we must see them
as problems to be solved,
as problems to be solved,
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13:04
not apocalypses in waiting,
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a ne kao apokalipse u najavi,
13:06
and aggressively pursue solutions
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i moramo agresivno da tragamo za rešenjima
13:09
like Deep Decarbonization
for climate change
for climate change
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poput Dubinske dekarbonizacije
za klimatske promene
za klimatske promene
13:12
and Global Zero for nuclear war.
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2200
i Globalne nule za nuklearni rat.
13:15
Finally, does the Enlightenment
go against human nature?
go against human nature?
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Naposletku, da li je prosvetiteljstvo
suprotstavljeno ljudskoj prirodi?
suprotstavljeno ljudskoj prirodi?
13:19
This is an acute question for me,
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Ovo je akutno pitanje za mene
13:22
because I'm a prominent advocate
of the existence of human nature,
of the existence of human nature,
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jer sam istaknuti zastupnik
toga da postoji ljudska priroda
toga da postoji ljudska priroda
13:25
with all its shortcomings
and perversities.
and perversities.
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sa svim njenim manama i izopačenostima.
U mojoj knjizi „Prazna ploča",
13:28
In my book "The Blank Slate,"
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13:30
I argued that the human prospect
is more tragic than utopian
is more tragic than utopian
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raspravljao sam o tome da su ljudski
izgledi pre tragični nego utopijski
izgledi pre tragični nego utopijski
13:34
and that we are not stardust,
we are not golden
we are not golden
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i da nismo zvezdana prašina, nismo zlatni
13:37
and there's no way
we are getting back to the garden.
we are getting back to the garden.
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i da nema šanse da ćemo se vratiti u raj.
13:39
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:42
But my worldview has lightened up
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Međutim, moj pogled na svet se ozario
13:44
in the 15 years since
"The Blank Slate" was published.
"The Blank Slate" was published.
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tokom 15 godina otkad
je objavljena „Prazna ploča".
je objavljena „Prazna ploča".
13:47
My acquaintance with
the statistics of human progress,
the statistics of human progress,
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Moja upućenost u statistiku
ljudskog napretka,
ljudskog napretka,
13:50
starting with violence
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počevši sa nasiljem,
13:51
but now encompassing
every other aspect of our well-being,
every other aspect of our well-being,
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ali koja sada obuhvata
sve druge aspekte našeg blagostanja,
sve druge aspekte našeg blagostanja,
13:55
has fortified my belief
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učvrstila je moje uverenje
13:57
that in understanding
our tribulations and woes,
our tribulations and woes,
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da razmevajući naša stradanja i jade,
14:00
human nature is the problem,
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ljudska priroda jeste problem,
14:02
but human nature, channeled
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
by Enlightenment norms and institutions,
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ali ljudska priroda, kanalisana
normama prosvetiteljstva i institucija,
normama prosvetiteljstva i institucija,
14:06
is also the solution.
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takođe je rešenje.
14:09
Admittedly, it's not easy
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
to replicate my own data-driven epiphany
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Priznaću, nije lako duplikovati na veliko
moje lično proviđenje vođeno podacima
moje lično proviđenje vođeno podacima
14:14
with humanity at large.
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u vezi sa čovečanstvom.
14:16
Some intellectuals have responded
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Neki intelektualci su reagovali gnevno
14:18
with fury to my book "Enlightenment Now,"
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na moju knjigu „Prosvetiteljstvo sad",
14:21
saying first how dare he claim
that intellectuals hate progress,
that intellectuals hate progress,
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govoreći, pre svega, kako se usuđujem
da tvrdim da intelektualci mrze napredak,
da tvrdim da intelektualci mrze napredak,
14:25
and second, how dare he claim
that there has been progress.
that there has been progress.
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a zatim, kako se usuđujem da tvrdim
da uopšte ima napretka.
da uopšte ima napretka.
14:28
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
14:32
With others, the idea of progress
just leaves them cold.
just leaves them cold.
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Druge, ideja napretka
prosto ostavlja ravnodušnim.
prosto ostavlja ravnodušnim.
14:35
Saving the lives of billions,
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Spašavanje milijardi života,
14:37
eradicating disease, feeding the hungry,
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iskorenjivanje bolesti, hranjenje gladnih,
14:40
teaching kids to read?
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podučavanje dece čitanju?
14:42
Boring.
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Dosadno.
14:44
At the same time, the most common response
I have received from readers is gratitude,
I have received from readers is gratitude,
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Istovremeno, najuobičajeniji odgovor
koji sam dobio od čitalaca je zahvalnost,
koji sam dobio od čitalaca je zahvalnost,
14:49
gratitude for changing
their view of the world
their view of the world
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zahvalnost što sam im promenio
pogled na svet
pogled na svet
14:51
from a numb and helpless fatalism
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od parališućeg i beznadežnog fatalizma
14:54
to something more constructive,
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u nešto konstruktivnije,
14:55
even heroic.
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čak junačko.
14:57
I believe that the ideals
of the Enlightenment
of the Enlightenment
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Verujem da ideali prosvetiteljstva
14:59
can be cast a stirring narrative,
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mogu da pruže uzbudljiv narativ
15:01
and I hope that people
with greater artistic flare
with greater artistic flare
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i nadam se da ljudi
većeg umetničkog nadahnuća
većeg umetničkog nadahnuća
15:04
and rhetorical power than I
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i retoričke moći od mene
15:06
can tell it better and spread it further.
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mogu to bolje da ispričaju
i prenesu dalje.
i prenesu dalje.
15:09
It goes something like this.
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Priča glasi nekako ovako.
15:12
We are born into a pitiless universe,
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Rođeni smo u nemilosrdnom univerzumu,
15:14
facing steep odds
against life-enabling order
against life-enabling order
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suočeni sa tankim šansama
protiv poretka koji omogućuje život
protiv poretka koji omogućuje život
15:18
and in constant jeopardy of falling apart.
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i u konstantnoj opasnosti od raspadanja.
15:21
We were shaped by a process
that is ruthlessly competitive.
that is ruthlessly competitive.
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Oblikovao nas je proces
nemilosrdnog takmičenja.
nemilosrdnog takmičenja.
15:25
We are made from crooked timber,
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Sačinjeni smo od rđavog kova,
15:27
vulnerable to illusions, self-centeredness
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podložni iluzijama, samozaljubljenosti
15:30
and at times astounding stupidity.
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i ponekad zapanjujućoj glupošću.
15:33
Yet human nature has also
been blessed with resources
been blessed with resources
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Ipak, ljudska priroda je takođe
blagoslovena resursima
blagoslovena resursima
15:36
that open a space
for a kind of redemption.
for a kind of redemption.
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koji oslobađaju prostor
za neki vid iskupljenja.
za neki vid iskupljenja.
15:39
We are endowed with the power
to combine ideas recursively,
to combine ideas recursively,
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Obdareni smo moći
da iznova kombinujemo ideje,
da iznova kombinujemo ideje,
15:42
to have thoughts about our thoughts.
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da imamo misli o našim mislima.
15:45
We have an instinct for language,
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Imamo instinkt za jezik,
15:47
allowing us to share the fruits
of our ingenuity and experience.
of our ingenuity and experience.
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koji nam omogućuje da delimo
plodove naše genijalnosti i iskustva.
plodove naše genijalnosti i iskustva.
15:51
We are deepened
with the capacity for sympathy,
with the capacity for sympathy,
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Produhovljeni smo
sposobnošću za saučešće,
sposobnošću za saučešće,
15:54
for pity, imagination,
compassion, commiseration.
compassion, commiseration.
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za sažaljenje, maštu,
samilost, saosećanje.
samilost, saosećanje.
15:59
These endowments have found ways
to magnify their own power.
to magnify their own power.
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Ove obdarenosti su pronašle način
da uvećavaju sopstvenu moć.
da uvećavaju sopstvenu moć.
16:03
The scope of language has been augmented
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Opseg jezika je proširen
16:05
by the written, printed
and electronic word.
and electronic word.
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pisanom, štampanom i elektronskom rečju.
16:09
Our circle of sympathy has been expanded
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Naš krug saosećanja je proširen
16:11
by history, journalism
and the narrative arts.
and the narrative arts.
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istorijom, novinarstvom
i pripovednim umetnostima.
i pripovednim umetnostima.
16:15
And our puny rational faculties
have been multiplied
have been multiplied
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A naše slabašne
racionalne moći su umnožene
racionalne moći su umnožene
16:18
by the norms and institutions of reason,
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normama i institucijama razuma,
16:20
intellectual curiosity, open debate,
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intelektualnom znatiželjom,
otvorenom debatom,
otvorenom debatom,
16:24
skepticism of authority and dogma
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skepticizmom prema autoritetu i dogmi
16:26
and the burden of proof to verify ideas
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i teretom dokaza da se potvrde ideje
16:29
by confronting them against reality.
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tako što ih suočavamo sa stvarnošću.
16:32
As the spiral of recursive improvement
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Kako spirala trajnog napretka
16:34
gathers momentum,
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dobija zamah,
16:36
we eke out victories
against the forces that grind us down,
against the forces that grind us down,
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crpimo naše pobede
protiv sila koje nas mrve,
protiv sila koje nas mrve,
16:40
not least the darker parts
of our own nature.
of our own nature.
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koje su ništa manje nego mračni delovi
naše sopstvene prirode.
naše sopstvene prirode.
16:43
We penetrate the mysteries
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
of the cosmos, including life and mind.
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Prodiremo u tajne kosmosa,
uključujući život i um.
uključujući život i um.
16:48
We live longer, suffer less, learn more,
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Živimo duže, patimo manje, učimo više,
16:52
get smarter and enjoy more small pleasures
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postajemo pametniji
i više uživamo u sitnim zadovoljstvima
i više uživamo u sitnim zadovoljstvima
16:54
and rich experiences.
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i bogatim iskustvima.
16:57
Fewer of us are killed,
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
assaulted, enslaved, exploited
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Manje ginemo, manje nas napadaju,
porobljavaju, izrabljuju
porobljavaju, izrabljuju
17:01
or oppressed by the others.
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ili tlače drugi.
17:03
From a few oases, the territories
with peace and prosperity are growing
with peace and prosperity are growing
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Iz nekoliko oaza, teritorije
mira i napretka rastu
mira i napretka rastu
17:08
and could someday encompass the globe.
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i mogle bi jednog dana
da obuhvate planetu.
da obuhvate planetu.
17:11
Much suffering remains
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Ostalo je još mnogo patnje
17:13
and tremendous peril,
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i ogromnih opasnosti,
17:15
but ideas on how to reduce them
have been voiced,
have been voiced,
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ali uobličene su ideje
o tome kako da ih umanjimo
o tome kako da ih umanjimo
17:18
and an infinite number of others
are yet to be conceived.
are yet to be conceived.
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a još bezbroj drugih
tek treba da se začne.
tek treba da se začne.
17:22
We will never have a perfect world,
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Nikada nećemo da imamo savršen svet,
17:24
and it would be dangerous to seek one.
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i bilo bi opasno tragati za njim.
Ali nema granice unapređenjima
koja možemo da postignemo,
koja možemo da postignemo,
17:26
But there's no limit
to the betterments we can attain
to the betterments we can attain
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17:29
if we continue to apply knowledge
to enhance human flourishing.
to enhance human flourishing.
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ako nastavimo da primenjujemo znanje
kako bi uvećali ljudski procvat.
kako bi uvećali ljudski procvat.
17:34
This heroic story
is not just another myth.
is not just another myth.
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Ova junačka priča nije tek još jedan mit.
17:37
Myths are fictions, but this one is true,
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Mitovi su fikcija,
ali ova priča je istinita,
ali ova priča je istinita,
17:41
true to the best of our knowledge,
which is the only truth we can have.
which is the only truth we can have.
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istinita što se tiče našeg znanja
koje je jedina istina koju imamo.
koje je jedina istina koju imamo.
17:44
As we learn more,
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Kako učimo više,
17:46
we can show which parts of the story
continue to be true and which ones false,
continue to be true and which ones false,
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možemo da pokažemo koji delovi priče
su i dalje tačni, a koji nisu,
su i dalje tačni, a koji nisu,
17:50
as any of them might be
and any could become.
and any could become.
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kao što bilo koji može da bude
i bilo koji može da postane.
i bilo koji može da postane.
17:54
And this story belongs not to any tribe
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I ova priča ne pripada bilo kom plemenu,
17:56
but to all of humanity,
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već celokupnom čovečanstvu,
17:58
to any sentient creature
with the power of reason
with the power of reason
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bilo kom svesnom biću
koje poseduje moć razuma
koje poseduje moć razuma
18:02
and the urge to persist in its being,
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i nagon da istraje u svom postojanju
18:05
for it requires only the convictions
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jer ona zahteva samo ubeđenje
18:07
that life is better than death,
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da je život bolji od smrti,
18:09
health is better than sickness,
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zdravlje je bolje od bolesti,
18:11
abundance is better than want,
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obilje je bolje od oskudice,
18:13
freedom is better than coercion,
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sloboda je bolje od prinude,
18:16
happiness is better than suffering
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sreća je bolja od patnje
18:18
and knowledge is better
than ignorance and superstition.
than ignorance and superstition.
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a znanje je bolje od neznanja i sujeverja.
18:22
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
18:23
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Pinker - PsychologistSteven Pinker is a professor of cognitive science (the study of the human mind) who writes about language, mind and human nature.
Why you should listen
Steven Pinker grew up in the English-speaking community of Montreal but has spent his adult life bouncing back and forth between Harvard and MIT. He is interested in all aspects of human nature: how we see, hear, think, speak, remember, feel and interact.
To be specific: he developed the first comprehensive theory of language acquisition in children, used verb meaning as a window into cognition, probed the limits of neural networks and showed how the interaction between memory and computation shapes language. He has used evolution to illuminate innuendo, emotional expression and social coordination. He has documented historical declines in violence and explained them in terms of the ways that the violent and peaceable components of human nature interact in different eras. He has written books on the language instinct, how the mind works, the stuff of thought and the doctrine of the blank slate, together with a guide to stylish writing that is rooted in psychology.
In his latest book, Enlightenment Now: The Case for Reason, Science, Humanism, and Progress, he writes about progress -- why people are healthier, richer, safer, happier and better educated than ever. His other books include The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Blank Slate: The Modern Denial of Human Nature, The Stuff of Thought, and The Better Angels of Our Nature.
Steven Pinker | Speaker | TED.com