TED Salon U.S. Air Force
Michele Wucker: Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them
Mišel Vuker (Michele Wucker): Zašto ignorišemo očigledne probleme i kako da preduzmemo nešto povodom njih
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Zašto često zanemarujemo velike probleme kao što su finansijska kriza i klimatske promene dok ne postane prekasno? Politički strateg Mišel Vuker nas poziva da zamenimo mit o „crnom labudu“ - o retkoj, nepredvidivoj, neizbežnoj katastrofi - stvarnošću „sivog nosoroga“, opasnosti koju je moguće sprečiti, a koju biramo da ignorišemo. Ona pokazuje zašto nas iznenade predvidljive krize i iznosi pojedine znake da možda i u vašem životu postoji nosorog koji juriša.
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So what if there were
a highly obvious problem
a highly obvious problem
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Šta ako bi postojao
veoma očigledan problem
veoma očigledan problem
00:17
right in front of you?
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tik ispred vas?
00:19
One that everyone was talking about,
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Problem o kome svi govore,
00:22
one that affected you directly.
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problem koji direktno utiče na vas.
00:25
Would you do everything
within your power to fix things
within your power to fix things
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Da li biste učinili sve
što je u vašoj moći da popravite stvari
što je u vašoj moći da popravite stvari
00:29
before they got worse?
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pre nego što se pogoršaju?
00:32
Don't be so sure.
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Ne budite tako sigurni.
00:34
We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit
than any of us would like to admit
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Svi smo mi mnogo više skloni
nego što bismo hteli da priznamo
nego što bismo hteli da priznamo
00:38
to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
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da propustimo ono što nam je pred nosem.
00:41
And in fact,
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U stvari,
00:43
we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things
to turn away from things
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ponekad je najveća verovatnoća
da ćemo okrenuti leđa nečemu
da ćemo okrenuti leđa nečemu
00:47
precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us,
that they represent to us,
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baš zbog toga što predstavlja
pretnju za nas,
pretnju za nas,
00:51
in business, life and the world.
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u poslu, životu i u svetu.
00:55
So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy.
from my world, economic policy.
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Htela bih da vam dam jedan primer
iz mog sveta, ekonomske politike.
iz mog sveta, ekonomske politike.
01:00
So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve,
was head of the Federal Reserve,
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Kad je Alan Grinspen
bio na čelu Federalnih rezervi,
bio na čelu Federalnih rezervi,
01:04
his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy
for problems in the US economy
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čitav njegov posao je bio
da pazi na probleme u američkoj ekonomiji
da pazi na probleme u američkoj ekonomiji
01:09
and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control.
didn't spin out of control.
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i da se pobrine da ne izmaknu kontroli.
01:12
So, after 2006,
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Nakon 2006. godine,
01:14
when real estate prices peaked,
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kada su cene nekretnina dostigle vrhunac,
01:16
more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions
respected leaders and institutions
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sve više uglednih lidera i institucija
01:21
started to sound the alarm bells
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počelo je da pokreće uzbunu
01:24
about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles.
and dangerous market bubbles.
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zbog rizičnih pozajmica
i opasno naduvanog tržišta.
i opasno naduvanog tržišta.
01:29
As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down.
it all came tumbling down.
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Kao što znate,
2008. godine se sve srušilo.
2008. godine se sve srušilo.
01:33
Banks collapsed,
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Banke su propale,
01:34
global stock markets
lost nearly half their value,
lost nearly half their value,
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svetske berze su izgubile
skoro polovinu svoje vrednosti,
skoro polovinu svoje vrednosti,
01:37
millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure.
lost their homes to foreclosure.
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milioni ljudi su izgubili domove
zbog neisplaćenih hipoteka.
zbog neisplaćenih hipoteka.
01:42
And at the bottom,
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I na samom dnu,
01:43
nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work.
was out of work.
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gotovo jedan od 10 Amerikanaca
ostao je bez posla.
ostao je bez posla.
01:48
So after things calmed down a little bit,
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Nakon što su se stvari malo stišale,
01:51
Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said,
came out with a postmortem and said,
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Grinspen i mnogi drugi su se pojavili
sa naknadnom analizom i rekli:
sa naknadnom analizom i rekli:
01:56
"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
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„Niko nije mogao da predvidi tu krizu.“
01:58
They called it "a black swan."
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Nazivali su je „crnim labudom“.
02:01
Something that was unimaginable,
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Nečim što je bilo nezamislivo,
02:04
unforeseeable and completely improbable.
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nepredvidivo i potpuno neverovatno.
02:09
A total surprise.
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Potpuno iznenađenje.
02:11
Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
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Osim što nije bilo toliko iznenađenje.
02:15
For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value
nearly doubled in value
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Na primer, vrednost mog stana na Menhetnu
se skoro dvostruko povećala
se skoro dvostruko povećala
02:19
in less than four years.
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za manje od četiri godine.
02:21
I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it.
and I sold it.
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Uočila sam priliku i prodala ga.
02:25
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
02:27
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
02:31
So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning,
also saw the warning,
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Mnogo drugih ljudi
je takođe videlo upozorenje,
je takođe videlo upozorenje,
02:34
spoke out publicly
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javno su govorili
02:36
and they were ignored.
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i ljudi su ih ignorisali.
02:38
So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like,
what the crisis was going to look like,
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Nismo znali tačno kako će kriza izgledati,
02:43
not the exact parameters,
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nismo znali tačne parametre,
02:45
but we could all tell
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ali svi smo mogli da primetimo
02:47
that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
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da je ono što nam se približava
opasno, vidljivo i predvidljivo
opasno, vidljivo i predvidljivo
02:53
as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us.
charging right at us.
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kao džinovski sivi nosorog
koji juri pravo na nas.
koji juri pravo na nas.
02:57
The black swan lends itself
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Crni labud se priklanja
02:59
to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures.
power over our futures.
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ideji da nemamo moć nad svojom budućnošću.
03:04
And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have,
that we think we have,
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I nažalost, što manje kontrole
mislimo da imamo,
mislimo da imamo,
03:09
the more likely we are to downplay it
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veća je verovatnoća
da ćemo umanjiti značaj nečega
da ćemo umanjiti značaj nečega
03:12
or ignore it entirely.
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ili da ćemo ga skroz ignorisati.
03:16
And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem:
masks another problem:
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Ova opasna dinamika
prikriva drugi problem,
prikriva drugi problem,
03:20
that most of the problems
that we're facing
that we're facing
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da je većina problema
sa kojima se suočavamo
sa kojima se suočavamo
03:22
are so probable and obvious,
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tako verovatna i očigledna,
03:25
they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.
but we still don't do anything about.
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da su to stvari koje možemo videti,
ali i dalje ništa ne preduzimamo.
ali i dalje ništa ne preduzimamo.
03:29
So I created the gray rhino metaphor
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Smislila sam metaforu sivog nosoroga
03:32
to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
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radi nečega što sam smatrala
hitnom potrebom.
hitnom potrebom.
03:35
To help us to take a fresh look,
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Da nam pomogne da zauzmemo
novu perspektivu,
novu perspektivu,
03:37
with the same passion
that people had for the black swan,
that people had for the black swan,
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sa istom strašću koju su ljudi
imali prema crnom labudu,
imali prema crnom labudu,
03:40
but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious,
that were highly obvious,
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ali ovoga puta prema stvarima
koje su vrlo očigledne,
koje su vrlo očigledne,
03:44
highly probable, but still neglected.
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vrlo verovatne, a ipak zanemarene.
03:50
Those are the gray rhinos.
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To su sivi nosorozi.
03:53
Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
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Kada počnete da tražite sive nosoroge,
03:55
you see them in the headlines every day.
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svakodnevno ih vidite u naslovima.
03:59
And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino,
is another big gray rhino,
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Ja u naslovima vidim
još jednog velikog sivog nosoroga,
još jednog velikog sivog nosoroga,
04:03
a new highly probable financial crisis.
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novu vrlo verovatnu finansijsku krizu.
04:08
And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years.
in the last 10 years.
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I pitam se jesmo li išta naučili
tokom poslednjih 10 godina.
tokom poslednjih 10 godina.
04:12
So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street,
to Washington or Wall Street,
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Ako slušate Vašington ili Vol strit,
04:15
you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
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skoro da vam se može oprostiti
ako mislite da je pred nama mirno more.
ako mislite da je pred nama mirno more.
04:23
But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
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Ali u Kini, gde provodim dosta vremena,
04:26
the conversation is totally different.
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vodi se vrlo drugačiji razgovor.
04:29
The entire economic team,
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Čitav ekonomski tim,
04:31
all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself,
Xi Jinping himself,
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sve do samog predsednika Si Đinpinga,
04:34
talk very specifically and clearly
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vrlo konkretno i jasno govori
04:37
about financial risks as gray rhinos,
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o finansijskim rizicima
kao o sivim nosorozima
kao o sivim nosorozima
04:41
and how they can tame them.
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i o tome kako da ih ukrote.
04:43
Now, to be sure, China and the US
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Nema sumnje, Kina i SAD
04:45
have very, very different
systems of government,
systems of government,
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imaju vrlo različite sisteme vlasti,
04:47
which affects what
they're able to do or not.
they're able to do or not.
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što utiče na to šta mogu
ili ne mogu da urade.
ili ne mogu da urade.
04:49
And many of the root causes
for their economic problems
for their economic problems
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Mnogi suštinski uzroci
njihovih ekonomskih problema
njihovih ekonomskih problema
04:52
are totally different.
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su sasvim različiti.
04:54
But it's no secret
that both countries have problems
that both countries have problems
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Ali nije tajna
da obe zemlje imaju probleme
da obe zemlje imaju probleme
04:57
with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity.
and with economic productivity.
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sa dugovima, nejednakošću
i ekonomskom produktivnošću.
i ekonomskom produktivnošću.
05:03
So how come the conversations
are so different?
are so different?
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Pa, kako to da se vode
toliko različiti razgovori?
toliko različiti razgovori?
05:06
You could actually ask this question,
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Ovo pitanje možete zapravo postaviti
05:08
not just about countries,
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ne samo vezano za zemlje,
05:10
but about just about everyone.
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već kada se radi o bilo kome.
05:12
The auto companies that put safety first
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O auto-kompanijama
kojima je bezbednost na prvom mestu
kojima je bezbednost na prvom mestu
05:16
and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars
to recall their shoddy cars
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i onima koje se ne trude
da povuku svoje falične automobile
da povuku svoje falične automobile
05:19
until after people die.
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sve dok ljudi ne umru.
05:24
The grandparents who,
in preparing for the inevitable --
in preparing for the inevitable --
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O bakama i dekama koji,
se spremaju za neizbežno -
se spremaju za neizbežno -
05:29
the ones who have the eulogy written,
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onima koji imaju napisan govor o sebi
05:33
the menu for the funeral lunch.
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i meni za ručak na sahrani.
05:35
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
Moji baka i deka su to imali.
05:36
My grandparents did.
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05:37
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:39
And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone.
chiseled into the gravestone.
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I sve osim datuma smrti
ugravirano na spomeniku.
ugravirano na spomeniku.
05:44
But then you have the grandparents
on the other side,
on the other side,
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Ali imate i bake i deke koji,
sa druge strane,
sa druge strane,
05:47
who don't put
their final affairs in order,
their final affairs in order,
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ne srede stvari na vreme,
05:49
who don't get rid of all the junk
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ne oslobode se beskorisnih stvari
05:51
they've been hoarding
for decades and decades
for decades and decades
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koje su sakupljali decenijama
i ostave ih deci da se snalaze sa njima.
05:53
and leave their kids to deal with it.
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05:56
So what makes the difference
between one side and the other?
between one side and the other?
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Pa, u čemu je razlika
između jedne i druge strane?
između jedne i druge strane?
06:00
Why do some people
see things and deal with them,
see things and deal with them,
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Zašto neki ljudi vide stvari
i pozabave se njima,
i pozabave se njima,
06:02
and the other ones just look away?
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a drugi samo okrenu glavu?
06:06
So the first one has to do
with culture, society,
with culture, society,
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To najpre ima veze sa kulturom, društvom
06:10
the people around you.
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i ljudima oko vas.
06:12
If you think that someone around you
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Ako mislite da će vam neko u vašoj blizini
06:15
is going to help
pick you up when you fall,
pick you up when you fall,
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pomoći da ustanete kada padnete,
06:18
you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller.
to see a danger as being smaller.
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veća je verovatnoća
da ćete umanjivati opasnost.
da ćete umanjivati opasnost.
06:22
And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones.
good chances, not just the bad ones.
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To nam omogućava i da pametno rizikujemo,
ne samo sa lošim izgledima.
ne samo sa lošim izgledima.
06:27
For example, like risking criticism
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Na primer, kada rizikujete
da vas kritikuju
da vas kritikuju
06:29
when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about.
that nobody wants you to talk about.
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kada govorite o opasnosti
o kojoj niko ne želi da sluša.
o kojoj niko ne želi da sluša.
06:33
Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary,
that are kind of scary,
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Ili kada prihvatite prilike
koje su pomalo strašne,
koje su pomalo strašne,
06:36
so in their own way are gray rhinos.
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tako da su na neki način sivi nosorozi.
06:39
So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone.
individualist culture -- go it alone.
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Dakle, SAD ima individualističku
kulturu - svako je za sebe.
kulturu - svako je za sebe.
06:44
And paradoxically,
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Paradoksalno,
06:45
this makes many Americans
much less open to change
much less open to change
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zbog toga su mnogi Amerikanci
mnogo manje spremni na promenu
mnogo manje spremni na promenu
06:49
and taking good risks.
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i pametno rizikovanje.
06:51
In China, by contrast,
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U Kini, nasuprot tome,
06:53
people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening,
is going to keep problems from happening,
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ljudi veruju da će vlada
sprečiti probleme,
sprečiti probleme,
06:56
which might not always be what happens,
but people believe it.
but people believe it.
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što možda nije uvek slučaj,
ali ljudi u to veruju.
ali ljudi u to veruju.
07:00
They believe they can rely
on their families,
on their families,
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Veruju da se mogu osloniti
na svoju porodicu,
na svoju porodicu,
07:02
so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks.
to take certain risks.
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pa su zbog toga više skloni
da prihvate određeni rizik.
da prihvate određeni rizik.
Kao što je kupovina nekretnina u Pekingu,
07:05
Like buying Beijing real estate,
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07:07
or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction,
that they need to change direction,
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ili otvorenost prema činjenici
da treba da promene pravac,
da treba da promene pravac,
07:10
and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing.
is absolutely amazing.
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i zapravo, tempo promena u Kini
je apsolutno neverovatan.
je apsolutno neverovatan.
07:15
Second of all,
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Kao drugo,
07:17
how much do you know about a situation,
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koliko toga znate o situaciji,
07:20
how much are you willing to learn?
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koliko ste spremni da učite?
07:22
And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want?
even when it's not what you want?
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Jeste li spremni da vidite stvari
čak i kada nisu ono što želite?
čak i kada nisu ono što želite?
07:26
So many of us are so unlikely
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Mnogi među nama će teže
07:29
to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out,
that we just want to black out,
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obratiti pažnju na stvari
koje prosto želimo da potisnemo,
koje prosto želimo da potisnemo,
07:32
we don't like them.
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ne dopadaju nam se.
07:34
We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with.
what we like, what we agree with.
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Obraćamo pažnju na ono što želimo
da vidimo, što volimo, sa čime se slažemo.
da vidimo, što volimo, sa čime se slažemo.
07:39
But we have the opportunity
and the ability
and the ability
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Ali imamo mogućnost i sposobnost
07:41
to correct those blind spots.
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da ispravimo te slepe mrlje.
07:44
I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks of life
talking with people of all walks of life
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Provodim mnogo vremena
u razgovoru sa najrazličitijim ljudima
u razgovoru sa najrazličitijim ljudima
07:47
about the gray rhinos in their life
and their attitudes.
and their attitudes.
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o sivim nosorozima u njihovom životu
i o njihovim stavovima.
i o njihovim stavovima.
07:50
And you might think
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Možda biste pomislili
07:52
that the people
who are more afraid of risk,
who are more afraid of risk,
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da su ljudi koji se više boje rizika,
07:54
who are more sensitive to them,
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koji su osetljiviji na njih,
07:56
would be the ones
who would be less open to change.
who would be less open to change.
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oni koji su manje otvoreni za promenu.
07:59
But the opposite is actually true.
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Ali u stvari je suprotno.
08:01
I've found that the people
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Otkrila sam da su ljudi
08:03
who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them
the problems around them
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koji su spremni da prepoznaju
probleme koji ih okružuju i koji planiraju
probleme koji ih okružuju i koji planiraju
08:05
and make plans
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08:07
are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
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ti koji su u stanju da tolerišu
više rizikovanja, pametnog rizikovanja,
više rizikovanja, pametnog rizikovanja,
08:10
and deal with the bad risk.
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i da se izbore sa lošim rizicima.
08:13
And it's because as we seek information,
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To je zato što, kada tražimo informacije,
08:16
we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of.
about the things that we're afraid of.
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povećavamo svoju moć da nešto uradimo
u vezi sa stvarima kojih se bojimo.
u vezi sa stvarima kojih se bojimo.
08:21
And that brings me to my third point.
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To me navodi na treću stavku.
08:23
How much control do you feel that you have
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Koliko kontrole mislite da imate
08:27
over the gray rhinos in your life?
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nad sivim nosorozima u svom životu?
08:30
One of the reasons we don't act
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Jedan od razloga zbog kojih ne delamo
08:32
is that we often feel too helpless.
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je taj da se često osećamo
previše bespomoćno.
previše bespomoćno.
08:35
Think of climate change,
it can feel so big,
it can feel so big,
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Pomislite na klimatske promene
koje se čine toliko velikim
koje se čine toliko velikim
08:38
that not a single one of us
could make a difference.
could make a difference.
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da niko od nas ne može da značajno utiče.
08:42
So some people go about life denying it.
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Zato neki ljudi
idu kroz život poričući ih.
idu kroz život poričući ih.
08:44
Other people blame everyone
except themselves.
except themselves.
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Drugi ljudi krive svakog osim sebe.
Kao moj prijatelj koji kaže
da se neće odreći svog auta
da se neće odreći svog auta
08:48
Like my friend who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
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dok u Kini ne prestanu da prave
termoelektrane na ugalj.
termoelektrane na ugalj.
08:50
until they stop building
coal plants in China.
coal plants in China.
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08:53
But we have an opportunity to change.
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Ali imamo priliku za promenu.
08:56
No two of us are the same.
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Ne postoje dve osobe
među nama koje su iste.
među nama koje su iste.
08:58
Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes,
to change our attitudes,
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Svako od nas ima mogućnost
da promeni svoje stavove,
da promeni svoje stavove,
09:03
our own and those of people around us.
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svoje i stavove ljudi oko sebe.
09:06
So today, I want to invite all of you
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Zato danas želim da vas sve pozovem
09:09
to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation
an open and honest conversation
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da mi se pridružite u podsticanju
otvorenog i iskrenog razgovora
otvorenog i iskrenog razgovora
09:14
with the people around you,
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sa ljudima oko sebe
09:15
about the gray rhinos in our world,
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o sivim nosorozima našeg sveta,
09:19
and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them.
about how well we're dealing with them.
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i da budemo brutalno iskreni
vezano za to koliko se dobro bavimo njima.
vezano za to koliko se dobro bavimo njima.
09:23
I hear so many times in the States,
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Toliko puta čujem u SAD-u:
09:25
"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems,
deal with obvious problems,
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„Pa, naravno da treba
da se bavimo očiglednim problemima,
da se bavimo očiglednim problemima,
09:28
but if you don't see
what's in front of you,
what's in front of you,
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ali ako ne vidite šta vam je pred nosem,
ili ste budala ili neznalica.“
09:30
you're either dumb or ignorant."
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09:32
That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more.
and I could not disagree more.
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Tako kažu, i uopšte se ne bih složila.
09:36
If you don't see what's in front of you,
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Ako ne vidite šta vam je pred nosem,
09:39
you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
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niste budala, niste neznalica,
09:42
you're human.
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čovek ste.
09:44
And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability,
that shared vulnerability,
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Kada svi prepoznamo tu ranjivost
koja nam je zajednička,
koja nam je zajednička,
09:49
that gives us the power to open our eyes,
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to nam daje snagu da otvorimo oči,
09:54
to see what's in front of us
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da vidimo šta je pred nama
09:55
and to act before we get trampled.
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i da delamo pre nego što nas pregazi.
10:01
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analystMichele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood.
Why you should listen
Michele Wucker's term "gray rhino" has moved markets and shaped financial policies around the world. She is the author of the international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, which China's leadership has used to frame and communicate its efforts to crack down on financial risk.
Drawing on three decades of experience in financial media and think tank management, turnarounds and policy analysis, Wucker is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, which helps organizations to better manage gray rhino risks. She speaks regularly on risk management, leadership, macro strategy and decision-making for high-level global audiences. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.
Wucker's first two books, Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, continue to influence policy debates.
Michele Wucker | Speaker | TED.com