TED Salon U.S. Air Force
Michele Wucker: Why we ignore obvious problems -- and how to act on them
Michele Wucker: 为什么我们无视那些显而易见的问题——以及如何解决
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问什么我们常常忽视那些大问题直到时间太晚，比如经济危机，气候变化？政策策略家Michele Wucker鼓励我们用“灰犀牛”——那些可以预防却被我们忽视的危险，去替代“黑天鹅”的神话——小概率，无法预见又无法避免的灾难。她向我们展示了为什么可遇见的危机仍让我们意外——并且给出了一些信息，有可能有一个"犀牛"正支配你的生活。
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analyst
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Michele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So what if there were
a highly obvious problem
a highly obvious problem
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假如有一个非常明显的问题
00:17
right in front of you?
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摆在你面前，
00:19
One that everyone was talking about,
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一个所有人都在讨论的，
00:22
one that affected you directly.
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直接影响你的问题。
00:25
Would you do everything
within your power to fix things
within your power to fix things
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请问你会在事情变得更糟糕之前，
尽你所能去解决它吗？
00:29
before they got worse?
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00:32
Don't be so sure.
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不要太确定你的答案。
00:34
We are all much more likely
than any of us would like to admit
than any of us would like to admit
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我们比那些肯承认自己会错过的人
00:38
to miss what's right in front of our eyes.
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更有可能错过那些在眼前发生的事情。
00:41
And in fact,
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而且就事实上来说，
00:43
we're sometimes most likely
to turn away from things
to turn away from things
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有时我们更有可能逃避事情的原因
00:47
precisely because of the threat
that they represent to us,
that they represent to us,
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正是来自这些事情给我们的，
00:51
in business, life and the world.
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在事业方面，生活方面，
乃至世界方面的风险。
乃至世界方面的风险。
00:55
So I want to give you an example
from my world, economic policy.
from my world, economic policy.
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我想举一个我身边的例子
——经济政策。
——经济政策。
01:00
So when Alan Greenspan
was head of the Federal Reserve,
was head of the Federal Reserve,
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当阿兰·格林斯潘还是
联邦储备局局长的时候
联邦储备局局长的时候
01:04
his entire job was to watch out
for problems in the US economy
for problems in the US economy
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他的整个工作就是小心地监督
美国经济的潜在问题，
美国经济的潜在问题，
01:09
and to make sure that they
didn't spin out of control.
didn't spin out of control.
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并确保它们没有失去控制。
01:12
So, after 2006,
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所以，2006年以后，
01:14
when real estate prices peaked,
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当房地产价格达到顶峰的时候，
01:16
more and more and more
respected leaders and institutions
respected leaders and institutions
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越来越多有名望的领导人和机构
01:21
started to sound the alarm bells
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开始敲响
风险贷款和危险市场泡沫的警钟。
01:24
about risky lending
and dangerous market bubbles.
and dangerous market bubbles.
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01:29
As you know, in 2008
it all came tumbling down.
it all came tumbling down.
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如各位所知，2008年一切都轰然倒塌。
01:33
Banks collapsed,
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银行倒闭，
01:34
global stock markets
lost nearly half their value,
lost nearly half their value,
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全世界的股票市场丢失了
接近一半的价值，
接近一半的价值，
数百万人失去他们作为抵押的家园。
01:37
millions and millions of people
lost their homes to foreclosure.
lost their homes to foreclosure.
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而在社会基层，
01:42
And at the bottom,
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01:43
nearly one in 10 Americans
was out of work.
was out of work.
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将近十分之一的美国人失业了。
01:48
So after things calmed down a little bit,
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所以在事情缓和了一些以后，
01:51
Greenspan and many others
came out with a postmortem and said,
came out with a postmortem and said,
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格林斯潘和许多人
从这个低谷中走出来说：
从这个低谷中走出来说：
01:56
"Nobody could have predicted that crisis."
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“没有人会有可能
提前预知这场危机。”
提前预知这场危机。”
01:58
They called it "a black swan."
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他们叫它“黑天鹅”。
02:01
Something that was unimaginable,
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一个很难想象的，
不可预知并且完全难以置信的事情。
02:04
unforeseeable and completely improbable.
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02:09
A total surprise.
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一场彻头彻尾的惊喜。
只是它不总是一个惊喜。
02:11
Except it wasn't always such a surprise.
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比如说，我在曼哈顿的公寓
在不到四年的时间里
在不到四年的时间里
02:15
For example, my Manhattan apartment
nearly doubled in value
nearly doubled in value
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价值几乎翻了一倍。
02:19
in less than four years.
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02:21
I saw the writing on the wall
and I sold it.
and I sold it.
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我获得了一些信息，
于是我将它出售了。
于是我将它出售了。
02:25
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:27
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
02:31
So, a lot of other people
also saw the warning,
also saw the warning,
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总之，很多其他人
也看到了同样的警示，
也看到了同样的警示，
02:34
spoke out publicly
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公开地说了出来，
但是这些信息都被忽视了。
02:36
and they were ignored.
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02:38
So we didn't know exactly
what the crisis was going to look like,
what the crisis was going to look like,
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所以我们并不准确地知道
这场危机到底会是什么模样，
这场危机到底会是什么模样，
02:43
not the exact parameters,
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不知道确切的参数，
但是我们可以说
02:45
but we could all tell
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02:47
that the thing coming at us
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
was as dangerous, visible and predictable
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这个即将到来的事情和
一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛
一只向我们急速冲来的巨型灰犀牛
02:53
as a giant gray rhino
charging right at us.
charging right at us.
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一样的危险，可见，可预判。
02:57
The black swan lends itself
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这只黑天鹅助长了我们的观点，
02:59
to the idea that we don't have
power over our futures.
power over our futures.
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那就是我们无法掌控我们的未来。
03:04
And unfortunately, the less control
that we think we have,
that we think we have,
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不幸的是，我们越是这样想，
我们就越有可能对之不予重视，
03:09
the more likely we are to downplay it
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03:12
or ignore it entirely.
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甚至完全忽视它。
03:16
And this dangerous dynamic
masks another problem:
masks another problem:
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这个危险的情况
还掩盖了另一个问题：
还掩盖了另一个问题：
03:20
that most of the problems
that we're facing
that we're facing
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那就是我们所面对的困难
03:22
are so probable and obvious,
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都极有可能发生且极度明显，
03:25
they're things that we can see,
but we still don't do anything about.
but we still don't do anything about.
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它们是我们所能看见的，
但是我们依然不采取任何措施。
但是我们依然不采取任何措施。
03:29
So I created the gray rhino metaphor
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所以我引用了巨型灰犀牛的比喻，
来描绘我所认为的“急需”。
03:32
to meet what I felt was an urgent need.
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为了帮助我们焕然一新，
03:35
To help us to take a fresh look,
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03:37
with the same passion
that people had for the black swan,
that people had for the black swan,
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用我们曾经对待“黑天鹅”那样的热情，
03:40
but this time, for the things
that were highly obvious,
that were highly obvious,
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但这次为了非常明显的事件，
03:44
highly probable, but still neglected.
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很可能发生，但是依然被忽视的事件。
03:50
Those are the gray rhinos.
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那些事件就是灰犀牛。
03:53
Once you start looking for gray rhinos,
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一旦你开始寻找这种动物，
03:55
you see them in the headlines every day.
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你就会每天都在头条看到它的名字。
03:59
And so what I see in the headlines
is another big gray rhino,
is another big gray rhino,
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然而我在头条所看到的
是另外一头灰犀牛。
是另外一头灰犀牛。
04:03
a new highly probable financial crisis.
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一个全新的，极有可能
发生的金融危机。
发生的金融危机。
04:08
And I wonder if we've learned anything
in the last 10 years.
in the last 10 years.
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于是我在想我们是否真的
从过去的十年里学到了什么。
从过去的十年里学到了什么。
04:12
So if you listen
to Washington or Wall Street,
to Washington or Wall Street,
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如果你是从华盛顿或者
华尔街听到的消息，
华尔街听到的消息，
04:15
you could almost be forgiven for thinking
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
that only smooth sailing laid ahead.
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你认为一切顺利就情有可原。
04:23
But in China, where I spend a lot of time,
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但是在中国，一个我投入了
许多时间研究的国家，
许多时间研究的国家，
04:26
the conversation is totally different.
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对话内容完全不一样。
04:29
The entire economic team,
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所有的经济小组，
04:31
all the way up to president
Xi Jinping himself,
Xi Jinping himself,
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一直到习近平总书记本人，
04:34
talk very specifically and clearly
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都会很清晰具体地讲述经济风险，
04:37
about financial risks as gray rhinos,
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并用上灰犀牛的比喻，
并且讨论他们会怎样制服它。
04:41
and how they can tame them.
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04:43
Now, to be sure, China and the US
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很明显，中国和美国
04:45
have very, very different
systems of government,
systems of government,
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有着差异很大的政府系统，
04:47
which affects what
they're able to do or not.
they're able to do or not.
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这影响着他们的能力范围，
04:49
And many of the root causes
for their economic problems
for their economic problems
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并且两个国家的经济问题根源
也完全不同。
04:52
are totally different.
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04:54
But it's no secret
that both countries have problems
that both countries have problems
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虽说如此，两国都存在问题已不是秘密
04:57
with debt, with inequality
and with economic productivity.
and with economic productivity.
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例如债务，不平等和经济生产力。
05:03
So how come the conversations
are so different?
are so different?
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到底为何这些对话如此不同？
05:06
You could actually ask this question,
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其实这个问题
不仅适用于国家，
05:08
not just about countries,
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05:10
but about just about everyone.
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也适用于每个人。
05:12
The auto companies that put safety first
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那些把安全放在第一位的汽车公司，
05:16
and the ones that don't bother
to recall their shoddy cars
to recall their shoddy cars
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和一些从不考虑召回
他们的劣质汽车的公司，
他们的劣质汽车的公司，
05:19
until after people die.
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直到有人丧命。
05:24
The grandparents who,
in preparing for the inevitable --
in preparing for the inevitable --
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那些为不可避免的离世
而做准备的祖父母——
而做准备的祖父母——
05:29
the ones who have the eulogy written,
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那些已经将写好悼词和
05:33
the menu for the funeral lunch.
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葬礼午餐菜单的，
05:35
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
05:36
My grandparents did.
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我的祖父母就这样做了，
05:37
(Laughter)
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（笑）
05:39
And everything but the final date
chiseled into the gravestone.
chiseled into the gravestone.
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包括所有其他的事情，除了
刻到坟墓上的最后日期。
刻到坟墓上的最后日期。
05:44
But then you have the grandparents
on the other side,
on the other side,
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但当你又有与我相反的祖父母，
05:47
who don't put
their final affairs in order,
their final affairs in order,
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他们不规划自己临终时的事情，
05:49
who don't get rid of all the junk
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他们不轻易摆脱掉那些
05:51
they've been hoarding
for decades and decades
for decades and decades
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他们已经囤积了数十载的废旧物品，
05:53
and leave their kids to deal with it.
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并且留给他们的子女去解决。
05:56
So what makes the difference
between one side and the other?
between one side and the other?
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那么两种方式的差别在哪里？
06:00
Why do some people
see things and deal with them,
see things and deal with them,
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为什么有的人会注意到问题并解决，
06:02
and the other ones just look away?
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而其他人仅会无视？
06:06
So the first one has to do
with culture, society,
with culture, society,
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首先是与文化和社会因素有关。
06:10
the people around you.
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那些你身边的人
06:12
If you think that someone around you
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如果你认为在你遇到困难的时候，
06:15
is going to help
pick you up when you fall,
pick you up when you fall,
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你身边的人会帮助你，
06:18
you're much more likely
to see a danger as being smaller.
to see a danger as being smaller.
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那么你极有可能会忽视一些危险。
06:22
And that allows us to take
good chances, not just the bad ones.
good chances, not just the bad ones.
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那么这就使我们能够
把握好机会，而不是坏的。
把握好机会，而不是坏的。
06:27
For example, like risking criticism
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比如对风险的评判，
06:29
when you talk about the danger
that nobody wants you to talk about.
that nobody wants you to talk about.
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当你谈到没有人愿意跟你聊的风险
06:33
Or taking the opportunities
that are kind of scary,
that are kind of scary,
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或者把握住有一点吓人的机会。
06:36
so in their own way are gray rhinos.
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那么对于他们而言，这是经常被提示
却未被重视的大概率风险，即“灰犀牛”。
却未被重视的大概率风险，即“灰犀牛”。
06:39
So the US has a very
individualist culture -- go it alone.
individualist culture -- go it alone.
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在美国就有一种
个人主义的文化——独自完成。
个人主义的文化——独自完成。
06:44
And paradoxically,
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矛盾的是，
06:45
this makes many Americans
much less open to change
much less open to change
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这使得很多美国人更不敢去改变，
06:49
and taking good risks.
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并且承担有回报的风险。
06:51
In China, by contrast,
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在中国，与之相反，
06:53
people believe that the government
is going to keep problems from happening,
is going to keep problems from happening,
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人民相信政府会把问题在根源解决，
06:56
which might not always be what happens,
but people believe it.
but people believe it.
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其实事实上并不总如此，
但是人民选择相信。
但是人民选择相信。
07:00
They believe they can rely
on their families,
on their families,
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他们相信他们可以依靠他们的家庭，
07:02
so that makes them more likely
to take certain risks.
to take certain risks.
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这样让他们更有能力承担相应的风险，
07:05
Like buying Beijing real estate,
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像是在北京买房，，
07:07
or like being more open about the fact
that they need to change direction,
that they need to change direction,
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或者在面对需要改变目标
或方向时更加从容，
或方向时更加从容，
07:10
and in fact, the pace of change in China
is absolutely amazing.
is absolutely amazing.
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并且事实上，中国改变的速度是惊人的。
07:15
Second of all,
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其次，
07:17
how much do you know about a situation,
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你对当下的情况了解多少，
07:20
how much are you willing to learn?
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你是否意愿去学习？
07:22
And are you willing to see things
even when it's not what you want?
even when it's not what you want?
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以及你是否愿意看到
你其实并不想看到的事情，
你其实并不想看到的事情，
07:26
So many of us are so unlikely
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我们很多人不太可能
07:29
to pay attention to the things
that we just want to black out,
that we just want to black out,
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愿意去关注我们想要屏蔽的事情，
07:32
we don't like them.
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我们不喜欢它们。
07:34
We pay attention to what we want to see,
what we like, what we agree with.
what we like, what we agree with.
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我们会注意想看到的，
喜欢以及认同的事情。
喜欢以及认同的事情。
07:39
But we have the opportunity
and the ability
and the ability
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但是我们有能力和机会
07:41
to correct those blind spots.
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去矫正那些盲点。
07:44
I spend a lot of time
talking with people of all walks of life
talking with people of all walks of life
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我花了很多时间和各行各业的人交流
07:47
about the gray rhinos in their life
and their attitudes.
and their attitudes.
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关于他们人生中的“灰犀牛”
和他们对此的态度。
和他们对此的态度。
07:50
And you might think
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你可能会认为
07:52
that the people
who are more afraid of risk,
who are more afraid of risk,
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那些更加害怕去冒险的人，
07:54
who are more sensitive to them,
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那些对事情更敏感的人，
07:56
would be the ones
who would be less open to change.
who would be less open to change.
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会更难接受变动。
07:59
But the opposite is actually true.
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但是事实恰恰相反。
08:01
I've found that the people
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我发现
那些更愿意认识到他们身边的问题，
08:03
who are wiling to recognize
the problems around them
the problems around them
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08:05
and make plans
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并且做出计划的人，
08:07
are the ones who are able
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
to tolerate more risk, good risk,
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才是更能够承受风险，好的风险，
08:10
and deal with the bad risk.
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并解决坏风险的人。
08:13
And it's because as we seek information,
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这是因为我们在寻找信息时，
08:16
we increase our power to do something
about the things that we're afraid of.
about the things that we're afraid of.
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我们会提高自己解决
那些自己害怕的事情的能力。
那些自己害怕的事情的能力。
08:21
And that brings me to my third point.
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这就引出了我的第三个观点。
08:23
How much control do you feel that you have
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你对你人生中
“灰犀牛”的把控有到少？
08:27
over the gray rhinos in your life?
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08:30
One of the reasons we don't act
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一个我们很少表现出来的原因，
就是我们经常感到无助。
08:32
is that we often feel too helpless.
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08:35
Think of climate change,
it can feel so big,
it can feel so big,
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考虑到气候变化的时候，
它是一件如此大的事情，
它是一件如此大的事情，
08:38
that not a single one of us
could make a difference.
could make a difference.
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并不是我们中的任何一人
可以独自解决的。
可以独自解决的。
08:42
So some people go about life denying it.
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因此，有些人开始怀疑人生。
08:44
Other people blame everyone
except themselves.
except themselves.
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其他人开始责怪
除他们自己以外的所有人。
除他们自己以外的所有人。
08:48
Like my friend who says
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
he's not ever going to give up his SUV
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就像我朋友曾经说的，
他永远不会放弃他的SUV，
他永远不会放弃他的SUV，
08:50
until they stop building
coal plants in China.
coal plants in China.
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除非他们停止在中国挖油田。
08:53
But we have an opportunity to change.
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但是我们有机会去改变。
08:56
No two of us are the same.
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没有任何两个人是一样的。
08:58
Every single one of us has the opportunity
to change our attitudes,
to change our attitudes,
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我们每一个人都有机会
去改变我们的态度，
去改变我们的态度，
09:03
our own and those of people around us.
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我们自己和身边人的态度。
09:06
So today, I want to invite all of you
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所以今天，我想要邀请你们所有人
09:09
to join me in helping to spark
an open and honest conversation
an open and honest conversation
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同我一起开展一个开诚布公的对话，
09:14
with the people around you,
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和你们身边的人讨论
09:15
about the gray rhinos in our world,
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那些我们生活中的“灰犀牛”们，
09:19
and be brutally honest
about how well we're dealing with them.
about how well we're dealing with them.
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并且绝对坦诚地聊一下
我们会如何完美地解决它们。
我们会如何完美地解决它们。
09:23
I hear so many times in the States,
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我在美国听过太多次
09:25
"Well, of course we should
deal with obvious problems,
deal with obvious problems,
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“我们当然需要解决那些问题，
09:28
but if you don't see
what's in front of you,
what's in front of you,
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但是如果你看不见你面前的东西，
09:30
you're either dumb or ignorant."
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那你要么是愚昧，要么是无知。”
09:32
That's what they say,
and I could not disagree more.
and I could not disagree more.
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这就是他们的说辞，而我非常不赞同。
09:36
If you don't see what's in front of you,
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如果你看不见迫在眉睫的事务，
09:39
you're not dumb, you're not ignorant,
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你并不是愚昧，也不是无知，
09:42
you're human.
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你只是个普通的人类。
09:44
And once we all recognize
that shared vulnerability,
that shared vulnerability,
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只要我们发现共有的脆弱，
09:49
that gives us the power to open our eyes,
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会给我们勇气去睁开眼睛
09:54
to see what's in front of us
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去看见眼前的事物，
09:55
and to act before we get trampled.
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并在被践踏前及时做出反应。
10:01
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Michele Wucker - Author, policy analystMichele Wucker coined the term "gray rhino" as a metaphor for obvious risks that are neglected despite -- in fact, often because of -- their size and likelihood.
Why you should listen
Michele Wucker's term "gray rhino" has moved markets and shaped financial policies around the world. She is the author of the international bestseller The Gray Rhino: How to Recognize and Act on the Obvious Dangers We Ignore, which China's leadership has used to frame and communicate its efforts to crack down on financial risk.
Drawing on three decades of experience in financial media and think tank management, turnarounds and policy analysis, Wucker is founder of the Chicago-based strategy firm Gray Rhino & Company, which helps organizations to better manage gray rhino risks. She speaks regularly on risk management, leadership, macro strategy and decision-making for high-level global audiences. She has been recognized as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum and a Guggenheim Fellow, among other honors.
Wucker's first two books, Lockout: Why America Keeps Getting Immigration Wrong When Our Prosperity Depends on Getting It Right and Why the Cocks Fight: Dominicans, Haitians, and the Struggle for Hispaniola, continue to influence policy debates.
Michele Wucker | Speaker | TED.com