ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Joy - Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing?

Why you should listen

In 2003, Bill Joy left Sun Microsystems, the computer company he cofounded, with no definite plans. He'd spent the late 1970s and early 1980s working on Berkeley UNIX (he wrote the vi editor), and the next decades building beautiful high-performance workstations at Sun. Always, he'd been a kind of polite engineer-gadfly -- refusing to settle for subpar code or muddled thinking.

In 2000, with a landmark cover story in Wired called "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Joy began to share his larger concerns with the world. A careful observer of the nanotech industry that was growing up around his own industry, Joy saw a way forward that, frankly, frightened him. He saw a very plausible future in which our own creations supplanted us -- if not out and out killed us (e.g., the gray goo problem). His proposed solution: Proceed with caution.

Joy's now a partner at KPMG, where he reviews business plans in education, environmental improvement and pandemic defense.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Joy | Speaker | TED.com
TED2006

Bill Joy: What I'm worried about, what I'm excited about

比尔·乔伊思考未来

Filmed:
553,237 views

技术大亨兼未来学家比尔·乔伊分享他对人类发展的几个担忧,以及在未来医疗、教育和科技领域的若干希望所在。
- Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing? Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:18
What technology技术 can we really apply应用 to reducing减少 global全球 poverty贫穷?
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什么技术可以真正帮助我们减少全球贫困?
00:24
And what I found发现 was quite相当 surprising奇怪.
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我找到的答案让我颇为吃惊。
00:28
We started开始 looking at things like death死亡 rates利率 in the 20th century世纪,
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我们在二十世纪开始关注死亡率这样的事情,
00:31
and how they'd他们会 been improved改善, and very simple简单 things turned转身 out.
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以及如何改善这些指标。找到的答案其实很简单。
00:34
You'd think maybe antibiotics抗生素 made制作 more difference区别 than clean清洁 water,
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你也许认为抗生素所做的贡献大于净水,
00:37
but it's actually其实 the opposite对面.
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其实答案恰恰相反。
00:40
And so very simple简单 things -- off-the-shelf现成的 technologies技术
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所以很简单的事物,那些能很容易在早期的网络上
00:43
that we could easily容易 find on the then-early那么早 Web卷筒纸 --
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找到的现成的技术,
00:48
would clearly明确地 make a huge巨大 difference区别 to that problem问题.
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就能解决问题。
00:53
But I also, in looking at more powerful强大 technologies技术
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与此同时,当我开始关注更加高级的技术,
00:57
and nanotechnology纳米技术 and genetic遗传 engineering工程 and other new emerging新兴
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像纳米技术、基因工程以及其他一些新兴的
01:02
kind of digital数字 technologies技术, became成为 very concerned关心
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数字技术,我开始变得非常担心,
01:06
about the potential潜在 for abuse滥用.
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担心这些技术将来会被滥用。
01:10
If you think about it, in history历史, a long, long time ago
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想一想历史上,很久很久以前,
01:15
we dealt处理 with the problem问题 of an individual个人 abusing滥用 another另一个 individual个人.
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我们要解决人类个体之间相互虐待的问题,
01:18
We came来了 up with something -- the Ten Commandments戒律: Thou shalt not kill.
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于是摩西十诫应运而生:你不能杀人。
01:21
That's a, kind of a one-on-one一对一 thing.
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那时还是一对一的事情。
01:23
We organized有组织的 into cities城市. We had many许多 people.
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然后人们聚合成很多城邦,从此很多人生活在一起。
01:27
And to keep the many许多 from tyrannizing欺压 the one,
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为了防止很多人欺负一个人,
01:31
we came来了 up with concepts概念 like individual个人 liberty自由.
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人们又发明了“个人自由”这一概念,
01:35
And then, to have to deal合同 with large groups,
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再后来,为了对付更大的社会群体,
01:36
say, at the nation-state民族国家 level水平,
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比如说国家之间,
01:39
and we had to have mutual相互 non-aggression互不侵犯,
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人们就必须制定互不侵犯协定,
01:41
or through通过 a series系列 of conflicts冲突, we eventually终于 came来了 to
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或者在经历了一系列的冲突之后,最终达成
01:45
a rough international国际 bargain讨价还价 to largely大部分 keep the peace和平.
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一个简要的国际合约来维护基本的和平。
01:51
But now we have a new situation情况, really what people call
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今天我们又有了新的挑战,人们认为这是个
01:56
an asymmetric非对称 situation情况, where technology技术 is so powerful强大
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不对称的形势。技术已经发展得非常强大,
01:59
that it extends扩展 beyond a nation-state民族国家.
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已经超越了国界。
02:03
It's not the nation-states民族国家 that have potential潜在 access访问
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大规模杀伤性武器不再只是被控制在
02:06
to mass destruction毁坏, but individuals个人.
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国家的手中,而有可能被个人掌控。
02:11
And this is a consequence后果 of the fact事实 that these new technologies技术 tend趋向 to be digital数字.
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这是新技术数字化的一个直接后果。
02:16
We saw genome基因组 sequences序列.
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我们都见过基因组序列,
02:20
You can download下载 the gene基因 sequences序列
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如果你想要知道病原体的基因序列,
02:21
of pathogens病原体 off the Internet互联网 if you want to,
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你可以从因特网下载到。
02:25
and clearly明确地 someone有人 recently最近 -- I saw in a science科学 magazine杂志 --
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而且我从《科学》杂志上看到,最近就有人这么做了。
02:30
they said, well, the 1918 flu流感 is too dangerous危险 to FedEx联邦快递 around.
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嗯——,1918年的流感病毒用联邦快递(FedEx)传播也许太危险了些。
02:35
If people want to use it in their labs实验室 for working加工 on research研究,
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如果你想用这些基因组在实验室里做研究,
02:38
just reconstruct重建 it yourself你自己,
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只要自己进行重组就可以了,
02:41
because, you know, it might威力 break打破 in FedEx联邦快递.
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因为我们都知道联邦快递可能会毁掉这些基因组。
02:45
So that this is possible可能 to do this is not deniable可否认.
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这也就是说这件事情的可行性已经毋庸置疑了,
02:50
So individuals个人 in small groups super-empowered超授权 by access访问 to these
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那些手中掌握着此类自我复制技术的人们
02:55
kinds of self-replicating自我复制 technologies技术, whether是否 it be biological生物
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就有可能对世界构成威胁,无论是生物技术
03:00
or other, are clearly明确地 a danger危险 in our world世界.
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还是其他技术。
03:03
And the danger危险 is that they can cause原因 roughly大致 what's a pandemic流感大流行.
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危险的是这些技术可能引发大规模的流行疾病,
03:07
And we really don't have experience经验 with pandemics流行病,
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而我们人类在对付流行疾病方面的确没什么经验,
03:10
and we're also not very good as a society社会 at acting演戏
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而且对于这些并没有直接和一目了然答案的问题,
03:13
to things we don't have direct直接 and sort分类 of gut-level肠道级 experience经验 with.
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我们也不擅长作为一个整体来行动。
03:17
So it's not in our nature性质 to pre-act预行为.
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也就是说未雨绸缪并不是我们的天性。
03:21
And in this case案件, piling on more technology技术 doesn't solve解决 the problem问题,
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这种情况下,发明更多的技术并不能解决问题,
03:26
because it only super-empowers超如虎添翼 people more.
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因为这只能让人类能的本领变得越发强大。
03:29
So the solution has to be, as people like Russell罗素 and Einstein爱因斯坦
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所以解决方案就在于,正像卢梭和爱因斯坦等人
03:33
and others其他 imagine想像 in a conversation会话 that existed存在
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在20世纪初在一种更强形式的对话中
03:35
in a much stronger form形成, I think, early in the 20th century世纪,
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提到的一样,
03:39
that the solution had to be not just the head but the heart.
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解决方案必须不光存在于脑中,而且在心中,
03:42
You know, public上市 policy政策 and moral道德 progress进展.
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也就是我们通常说的政策和道德的发展进步。
03:47
The bargain讨价还价 that gives us civilization文明 is a bargain讨价还价 to not use power功率.
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人类文明正是在避免使用过多权力的前提下建立起来的。
03:53
We get our individual个人 rights权利 by society社会 protecting保护 us from others其他
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个人权利之所以得到保障,就是因为社会通过法律规定了
03:56
not doing everything they can do but largely大部分 doing only what is legal法律.
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什么是合法的行为,从而防止人们为所欲为。
04:01
And so to limit限制 the danger危险 of these new things, we have to limit限制,
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因此要想最终控制这些新事物带来的潜在危险,我们就必须
04:06
ultimately最终, the ability能力 of individuals个人
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将有条件接触那些有大规模破坏能力的
04:08
to have access访问, essentially实质上, to pandemic流感大流行 power功率.
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群体的能力控制在一定的限度之内。
04:11
We also have to have sensible明智 defense防御, because no limitation局限性
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我们也必须同时具有一定的防卫能力,因为没有什么限制
04:15
is going to prevent避免 a crazy person from doing something.
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是能够真正阻止一个失去理智的人做任何疯狂的事情的。
04:18
And you know, and the troubling令人不安 thing is that
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而且大家也知道,最头疼的事情是
04:20
it's much easier更轻松 to do something bad than to defend保卫
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干坏事情要比对所有坏事进行防御
04:22
against反对 all possible可能 bad things,
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要容易得多。
04:24
so the offensive进攻 uses使用 really have an asymmetric非对称 advantage优点.
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因此进行攻击(相对防御而言)的确是有一些“非对称”优势的。
04:28
So these are the kind of thoughts思念 I was thinking思维 in 1999 and 2000,
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以上这些就是我在1999和2000年所想到的。
04:32
and my friends朋友 told me I was getting得到 really depressed郁闷,
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我的朋友告诉我说我那时候变得十分忧郁,
04:34
and they were really worried担心 about me.
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他们都很替我担心。
04:36
And then I signed a book contract合同 to write more gloomy阴沉 thoughts思念 about this
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在那之后我又签了一份约稿,要把这些让人忧郁的想法结集出版,
04:39
and moved移动 into a hotel旅馆 room房间 in New York纽约
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为此我住进了纽约的一家酒店,
04:41
with one room房间 full充分 of books图书 on the Plague鼠疫,
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酒店的房间里堆满了关于那些想法的书籍,
04:45
and you know, nuclear bombs炸弹 exploding爆炸 in New York纽约
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还有大家都知道的在纽约发生的核炸弹爆炸,
04:48
where I would be within the circle, and so on.
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就发生在离我不远的地方,诸如此类。
04:51
And then I was there on September九月 11th,
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然后就是9.11,当时我就在那里。
04:55
and I stood站在 in the streets街道 with everyone大家.
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我跟所有人一样站在街头。
04:56
And it was quite相当 an experience经验 to be there.
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那可是个相当难忘的经历。
04:58
I got up the next下一个 morning早上 and walked out of the city,
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我第二天早晨起来后走在城市当中,
05:01
and all the sanitation卫生 trucks卡车 were parked on Houston休斯顿 Street
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所有的环卫车辆集结在休斯顿大街,
05:04
and ready准备 to go down and start开始 taking服用 the rubble瓦砾 away.
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准备前往出事地点清理那些爆炸垃圾,
05:06
And I walked down the middle中间, up to the train培养 station,
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我一路走到地铁车站,
05:08
and everything below下面 14th Street was closed关闭.
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14街以下所有的街头店铺都关闭了。
05:11
It was quite相当 a compelling引人注目 experience经验, but not really, I suppose假设,
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这确实是一次不小的经历,但我想对于我这个
05:15
a surprise to someone有人 who'd谁愿意 had his room房间 full充分 of the books图书.
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拥有一屋子这类书籍的人来说也许并不应该感到那么意外。
05:18
It was always a surprise that it happened发生 then and there,
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大家会对偶发事件会感到惊讶
05:22
but it wasn't a surprise that it happened发生 at all.
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但这件事情迟早会发生,这本身并不是个意外。
05:26
And everyone大家 then started开始 writing写作 about this.
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在那之后所有人都开始谈论这件事情,
05:28
Thousands成千上万 of people started开始 writing写作 about this.
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成千上万的人开始动笔写这件事情。
05:29
And I eventually终于 abandoned the book, and then Chris克里斯 called me
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我最终放弃了那本书的写作,接着克里斯给我打电话
05:31
to talk at the conference会议. I really don't talk about this anymore
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让我在这个大会上发言。我实在是不想再讨论这件事情,
05:34
because, you know, there's enough足够 frustrating泄气 and depressing压抑 things going on.
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因为我们都知道,周围已经有足够多让我们沮丧和忧郁的事情了。
05:39
But I agreed同意 to come and say a few少数 things about this.
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但我还是答应来这里讲几件与此相关的事情。
05:42
And I would say that we can't give up the rule规则 of law
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我要说:我们不能放弃
05:45
to fight斗争 an asymmetric非对称 threat威胁, which哪一个 is what we seem似乎 to be doing
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对抗这种不对称威胁的原则, 我们也正在做着,
05:49
because of the present当下, the people that are in power功率,
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因为当前的状况, 目前的当权者
05:54
because that's to give up the thing that makes品牌 civilization文明.
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因为他们在放弃人类文明的保障。
05:59
And we can't fight斗争 the threat威胁 in the kind of stupid way we're doing,
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我们也不能使用愚蠢的方法来赢得这场战争,
06:02
because a million-dollar百万美元 act法案
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因为一个百万美元的提案
06:04
causes原因 a billion十亿 dollars美元 of damage损伤, causes原因 a trillion dollar美元 response响应
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可能引发一亿美元的损失,继而引发一万亿美元的响应救援,
06:07
which哪一个 is largely大部分 ineffective不灵 and arguably按理说, probably大概 almost几乎 certainly当然,
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而这些救援大部分是低效而有争议的,基本上可以肯定地说,
06:10
has made制作 the problem问题 worse更差.
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会让原有的问题雪上加霜。
06:12
So we can't fight斗争 the thing with a million-to-one百万到一 cost成本,
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也就是说,我们不能用1百万比1的付出和
06:17
one-to-a-million一到一百万 cost-benefit成本效益 ratio.
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1比1百万的收益来解决问题。
06:24
So after giving up on the book -- and I had the great honor荣誉
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在我放弃了写那本书的计划之后,我很荣幸
06:29
to be able能够 to join加入 Kleiner克莱纳 Perkins帕金斯 about a year ago,
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在大约一年前开始跟Kleiner Perkins一起
06:33
and to work through通过 venture冒险 capital首都 on the innovative创新 side,
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致力于一些创新发明的风险投资,
06:40
and to try to find some innovations创新 that could address地址 what I saw as
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希望能找到一些创新项目来帮助解决
06:44
some of these big problems问题.
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一些在我看来是大问题的问题。
06:46
Things where, you know, a factor因子 of 10 difference区别
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对于这些问题,我们都知道的,方法上哪怕只有十分的差异
06:49
can make a factor因子 of 1,000 difference区别 in the outcome结果.
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都可能导致在结果上千分的差异。
06:53
I've been amazed吃惊 in the last year at the incredible难以置信 quality质量
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过去一年里我不断地被送到我桌面上来的
06:56
and excitement激动 of the innovations创新 that have come across横过 my desk.
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创新成果的质量和让人兴奋的程度感到惊讶,
07:01
It's overwhelming压倒 at times. I'm very thankful感谢 for Google谷歌 and Wikipedia维基百科
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有时候甚至让我彻底折服。感谢Google和Wikipedia,
07:04
so I can understand理解 at least最小 a little of what people are talking about
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至少能帮助我理解那些来找我的
07:08
who come through通过 the doors.
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人们所说的是什么。
07:10
But I wanted to share分享 with you three areas
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但我今天想要分享让我最为兴奋的
07:13
that I'm particularly尤其 excited兴奋 about and that relate涉及 to the problems问题
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三个领域,这三个领域跟我给Wired写的文章里
07:16
that I was talking about in the Wired有线 article文章.
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提到的事情是相关的。
07:21
The first is this whole整个 area of education教育,
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第一个领域是教育。
07:23
and it really relates涉及 to what Nicholas尼古拉斯 was talking about with a $100 computer电脑.
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这个领域跟Nicholas所提到的”百元电脑“密切相关。
07:27
And that is to say that there's a lot of legs left in Moore's摩尔定律 Law.
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也就是说摩尔定律其实还有很大的发展空间
07:31
The most advanced高级 transistors晶体管 today今天 are at 65 nanometers纳米,
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如今最先进的晶体管只有65纳米,
07:35
and we've我们已经 seen看到, and I've had the pleasure乐趣 to invest投资
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我们也看到,事实上我甚至有幸投资这样的一些公司,
07:38
in, companies公司 that give me great confidence置信度 that we'll extend延伸 Moore's摩尔定律 Law
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这些公司让我确信我们可以将摩尔定律加以扩展,
07:44
all the way down to roughly大致 the 10 nanometer纳米 scale规模.
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一直扩展到大约10纳米左右的范围。
07:47
Another另一个 factor因子 of, say, six in dimensional尺寸的 reduction减少,
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尺寸每缩小6倍,
07:53
which哪一个 should give us about another另一个 factor因子 of 100 in raw生的 improvement起色
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就能使芯片的效率提高大约100倍。
07:58
in what the chips芯片 can do. And so, to put that in practical实际的 terms条款,
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说的实际一些:
08:03
if something costs成本 about 1,000 dollars美元 today今天,
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今天成本是一千元的东西,
08:07
say, the best最好 personal个人 computer电脑 you can buy购买, that might威力 be its cost成本,
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比如说现在能买到的最好的个人电脑大约就是这个价钱,
08:12
I think we can have that in 2020 for 10 dollars美元. Okay?
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那么到了2020年它的成本就变成了10块钱,对吧?
08:18
Now, just imagine想像 what that $100 computer电脑 will be in 2020
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那么设想一下到那个时候用一百元的电脑
08:23
as a tool工具 for education教育.
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作为教育工具将会是什么样的情形。
08:25
I think the challenge挑战 for us is --
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我想对我们来说真正的挑战,
08:27
I'm very certain某些 that that will happen发生, the challenge挑战 is,
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我相当肯定这是会发生的,真正的挑战就是,
08:29
will we develop发展 the kind of educational教育性 tools工具 and things with the net
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我们能否开发出合适的教育工具,在互联网的帮助下,
08:34
to let us take advantage优点 of that device设备?
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能让我们充分发挥硬件的效率?
08:37
I'd argue争论 today今天 that we have incredibly令人难以置信 powerful强大 computers电脑,
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我个人认为:我们有强大得让人难以置信的计算机硬件,
08:41
but we don't have very good software软件 for them.
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但我们还没有很好的软件来充分利用这些计算机。
08:43
And it's only in retrospect回想起来, after the better software软件 comes along沿,
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每次都是当新的软件出来以后,
08:46
and you take it and you run it on a ten-year-old十岁 machine, you say,
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我们把它装在十年前的机器上,然后你惊讶的发现
08:48
God, the machine was that fast快速?
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天啊,那台机器原来有那么快啊?
08:50
I remember记得 when they took the Apple苹果 Mac苹果电脑 interface接口
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我记得当他们把Apple Mac的界面
08:52
and they put it back on the Apple苹果 IIII.
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重新装到Apple II上去,
08:55
The Apple苹果 IIII was perfectly完美 capable of running赛跑 that kind of interface接口,
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Apple II 能够完全正常的运行那样的界面,
08:58
we just didn't know how to do it at the time.
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我们当时只是不知道该怎么去做。
09:01
So given特定 that we know and should believe --
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所以我们知道,并且应该相信,
09:03
because Moore's摩尔定律 Law's法律的 been, like, a constant不变,
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由于摩尔定律就像是个常数,
09:06
I mean, it's just been very predictable可预测 progress进展
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也就是说受它影响,技术的进步在过去的40年左右的时间里
09:09
over the last 40 years年份 or whatever随你.
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是相当有预知性的。
09:12
We can know what the computers电脑 are going to be like in 2020.
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我们可以预测出2020年的计算机会是什么样子。
09:16
It's great that we have initiatives倡议 to say,
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如果我们能够争取主动,
09:18
let's go create创建 the education教育 and educate教育 people in the world世界,
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致力于教育发展,努力去教育周围的人们,
09:21
because that's a great force for peace和平.
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这将会是一件大好事,因为教育是制造和平的强有力工具。
09:23
And we can give everyone大家 in the world世界 a $100 computer电脑
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而且我们能够在15年后给每个人一台
09:26
or a $10 computer电脑 in the next下一个 15 years年份.
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一百块钱或者10块钱的电脑。
09:31
The second第二 area that I'm focusing调焦 on is the environmental环境的 problem问题,
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第二个领域是对环境问题的关注,
09:36
because that's clearly明确地 going to put a lot of pressure压力 on this world世界.
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因为很明显这个问题将给这个世界施加很多压力。
09:40
We'll hear a lot more about that from Al Gore血块 very shortly不久.
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我们马上将会听到Al Gore来谈论这个问题。
09:44
The thing that we see as the kind of Moore's摩尔定律 Law trend趋势
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在这个领域能遵循摩尔定律来
09:47
that's driving主动 improvement起色 in our ability能力 to address地址
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提高我们解决环境问题的能力
09:50
the environmental环境的 problem问题 is new materials物料.
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的技术则是新兴材料的应用。
09:54
We have a challenge挑战, because the urban城市的 population人口 is growing生长
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然而我们有个严峻的挑战,因为在本世纪
09:58
in this century世纪 from two billion十亿 to six billion十亿
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短短的一段时间内,城市人口已经从
10:01
in a very short amount of time. People are moving移动 to the cities城市.
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20亿增加到了60亿。人们在往城市迁徙。
10:03
They all need clean清洁 water, they need energy能源, they need transportation运输,
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城市需要干净的水源,需要能量,需要便利的交通,
10:06
and we want them to develop发展 in a green绿色 way.
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而我们希望这些都能在”绿色“的基础上发展起来。
10:10
We're reasonably合理 efficient高效 in the industrial产业 sectors行业.
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我们在工业界的环保做的还是相对有效的,
10:12
We've我们已经 made制作 improvements改进 in energy能源 and resource资源 efficiency效率,
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在能源和资源的有效利用方面取得了不少进步,
10:15
but the consumer消费者 sector扇形, especially特别 in America美国, is very inefficient低效.
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然而在消费领域,尤其是在美国,能源利用效率很低。
10:19
But these new materials物料 bring带来 such这样 incredible难以置信 innovations创新
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但这些新材料的出现带来了令人难以置信的革新,
10:23
that there's a strong强大 basis基础 for hope希望 that these things
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从而让我们很有理由相信这些新生事物将会
10:27
will be so profitable有利可图 that they can be brought to the market市场.
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带来很大的收益,从而很快被市场化。
10:29
And I want to give you a specific具体 example of a new material材料
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我想跟各位分享一个十五年前发现的
10:32
that was discovered发现 15 years年份 ago.
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新物质的具体例子。
10:35
If we take carbon nanotubes纳米管, you know, Iijima饭岛 discovered发现 them in 1991,
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大家都知道碳纳米管是lijima在1991年发现的。
10:40
they just have incredible难以置信 properties性能.
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这种材料有着优秀的特性,
10:42
And these are the kinds of things we're going to discover发现
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这些特性是技术发展到
10:43
as we start开始 to engineer工程师 at the nano纳米 scale规模.
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纳米级的时候才能发现的。
10:46
Their strength强度: they're almost几乎 the strongest最强 material材料,
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这些材料的优势是:它们几乎是最强壮的,
10:49
tensile拉伸 strength强度 material材料 known已知.
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在已知的伸张力材料中最强的。
10:52
They're very, very stiff僵硬. They stretch伸展 very, very little.
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它们非常僵硬,拉伸程度非常非常小。
10:57
In two dimensions尺寸, if you make, like, a fabric out of them,
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在二维情况下,比如说用它们来做布料,
11:00
they're 30 times stronger than Kevlar芳纶.
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它们要比纤维B坚固30倍。
11:03
And if you make a three-dimensional三维 structure结构体, like a buckyball布基球,
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如果你要用它们来做三维物体,比如说巴基球,
11:06
they have all sorts排序 of incredible难以置信 properties性能.
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它们则拥有各种令人难以置信的优秀特性。
11:08
If you shoot射击 a particle粒子 at them and knock a hole in them,
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如果你用一个颗粒物质在它们表面上射一个洞,
11:11
they repair修理 themselves他们自己; they go zip压缩 and they repair修理 the hole
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它们会进行自我修复。它们会在几个飞秒之内
11:14
in femtoseconds飞秒, which哪一个 is not -- is really quick.
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完成修复,即便不是飞秒,那速度也够快的
11:17
(Laughter笑声)
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(笑声)
11:20
If you shine闪耀 a light on them, they produce生产 electricity电力.
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如果你用光照射它们,它们则会产生电流。
11:24
In fact事实, if you flash them with a camera相机 they catch抓住 on fire.
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事实上,如果你用照相机的闪光灯照,它们会起火。
11:27
If you put electricity电力 on them, they emit发射 light.
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如果你给它们通电,它们会发光。
11:31
If you run current当前 through通过 them, you can run 1,000 times more current当前
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如果你让它们导电,它们可以携带的电流
11:34
through通过 one of these than through通过 a piece of metal金属.
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是一块金属所携带电流的1000倍。
11:38
You can make both p-P- and n-typen型 semiconductors半导体,
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你可以用它们来做p型或n型半导体,
11:41
which哪一个 means手段 you can make transistors晶体管 out of them.
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也就是说你可以用它们来制造晶体管。
11:43
They conduct进行 heat along沿 their length长度 but not across横过 --
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它们在长度方向上导热,而不是纵向
11:46
well, there is no width宽度, but not in the other direction方向
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事实上它们并没有宽度,如果你把它们堆起来
11:48
if you stack them up; that's a property属性 of carbon fiber纤维 also.
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它们不会朝另一个方向导热。这也是碳纤维的一个特性。
11:54
If you put particles粒子 in them, and they go shooting射击 out the tip小费 --
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如果你把颗粒物质放到它们里面,颗粒们就会从一端射出,
11:57
they're like miniature微型 linear线性 accelerators加速器 or electron电子 guns枪炮.
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就像一个小型的线性加速器或者电子枪。
12:00
The inside of the nanotubes纳米管 is so small --
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纳米管的内部是非常小的,
12:03
the smallest最少 ones那些 are 0.7 nanometers纳米 --
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最小的也就0.7纳米,
12:05
that it's basically基本上 a quantum量子 world世界.
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这基本上就是个量子世界。
12:07
It's a strange奇怪 place地点 inside a nanotube纳米管.
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纳米管内部的确是个奇怪的地方。
12:10
And so we begin开始 to see, and we've我们已经 seen看到 business商业 plans计划 already已经,
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于是我们开始看到一些商业计划已经开始形成,
12:13
where the kind of things Lisa丽莎 Randall's兰德尔 talking about are in there.
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就像是Lisa Randall的演讲中所提到的那些。
12:16
I had one business商业 plan计划 where I was trying to learn学习 more about
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在我的一个商业计划中,我试图了解更多关于
12:18
Witten's威滕的 cosmic宇宙的 dimension尺寸 strings字符串 to try to understand理解
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Witten的宇宙弦维理论,从而更好的理解
12:21
what the phenomenon现象 was going on in this proposed建议 nanomaterial纳米材料.
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这些纳米材料内部究竟发生的是什么现象。
12:24
So inside of a nanotube纳米管, we're really at the limit限制 here.
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对纳米管内部的情况我们了解的很有限。
12:30
So what we see is with these and other new materials物料
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对于这些以及其他一些新材料我们所能看到的是
12:34
that we can do things with different不同 properties性能 -- lighter打火机, stronger --
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我们能利用它们的一些特殊性质,比如更轻、更坚固,来做一些事情,
12:38
and apply应用 these new materials物料 to the environmental环境的 problems问题.
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然后把这些新材料应用到解决环境问题上来。
12:44
New materials物料 that can make water,
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比如可以合成水的材料,
12:45
new materials物料 that can make fuel汽油 cells细胞 work better,
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可以提高燃料电池性能的材料,
12:47
new materials物料 that catalyze催化 chemical化学 reactions反应,
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可以催化化学反应,从而
12:51
that cut pollution污染 and so on.
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减少污染的材料,等等。
12:54
Ethanol乙醇 -- new ways方法 of making制造 ethanol乙醇.
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还有乙醇,制造乙醇的新方法,
12:57
New ways方法 of making制造 electric电动 transportation运输.
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实现电子交通工具的新方法,
13:00
The whole整个 green绿色 dream梦想 -- because it can be profitable有利可图.
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整个的这个”绿色梦想“,因为它是有利可图的。
13:04
And we've我们已经 dedicated专用 -- we've我们已经 just raised上调 a new fund基金,
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而且我们已经开始这方面的努力了:我们刚刚建起一项新的基金,
13:06
we dedicated专用 100 million百万 dollars美元 to these kinds of investments投资.
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投入了1亿美元对这类项目进行投资。
13:09
We believe that Genentech基因泰克, the Compaq康柏, the Lotus莲花, the Sun太阳,
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我们相信这些领域中类似Genetech,Compaq,Lotus,Sun,
13:13
the Netscape网景, the Amazon亚马逊, the Google谷歌 in these fields领域
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Netscape, Amazon以及Google
13:17
are yet然而 to be found发现, because this materials物料 revolution革命
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这样的(具有带头羊作用)公司尚待建立,因为这些新材料的革新®
13:20
will drive驾驶 these things forward前锋.
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会推动这些领域的各项事业向前发展
13:24
The third第三 area that we're working加工 on,
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第三个让我们感兴趣的领域,
13:26
and we just announced公布 last week -- we were all in New York纽约.
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我们上周刚刚在纽约宣布的,
13:30
We raised上调 200 million百万 dollars美元 in a specialty专业 fund基金
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我们募集了2亿美元建立了一个
13:36
to work on a pandemic流感大流行 in biodefense生物防御.
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用来对付生物防御系统流行疾病的特殊基金。
13:40
And to give you an idea理念 of the last fund基金 that Kleiner克莱纳 raised上调
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Kleiliner最近募集的一笔基金是4亿美元,
13:43
was a $400 million百万 fund基金, so this for us is a very substantial大量的 fund基金.
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这对我们来说是一笔很重要的资金。
13:48
And what we did, over the last few少数 months个月 -- well, a few少数 months个月 ago,
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我们近几个月来,实际上是几个月之前,所做的事情,
13:52
Ray射线 Kurzweil库兹威尔 and I wrote an op-ed专栏 in the New York纽约 Times
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Ray Kurzweil 和我为纽约时报写了一篇特稿,
13:55
about how publishing出版 the 1918 genome基因组 was very dangerous危险.
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是关于1918年公布基因组序列这件事是多么的危险。
13:58
And John约翰 Doerr杜尔 and Brook and others其他 got concerned关心, [unclear不明],
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John Doerr,Brook和其他一些人变得担忧起来,
14:02
and we started开始 looking around at what the world世界 was doing
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然后我们开始检视当时的人们是如何
14:06
about being存在 prepared准备 for a pandemic流感大流行. And we saw a lot of gaps空白.
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为流行病做准备的。我们发现了很多纰漏。
14:11
And so we asked ourselves我们自己, you know, can we find innovative创新 things
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然后我们开始问自己,我们能否找到新的方法
14:15
that will go fill these gaps空白? And Brooks布鲁克斯 told me in a break打破 here,
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来填补这些漏洞呢?Brooks有一次在Ted大会的间歇告诉我说,
14:19
he said he's found发现 so much stuff东东 he can't sleep睡觉,
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他发现了很多让他睡不着觉的东西,
14:21
because there's so many许多 great technologies技术 out there,
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有很多很好的技术已经出现,
14:24
we're essentially实质上 buried隐藏. And we need them, you know.
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我们实际上已经被它们淹没了。而我们的确需要它们。
14:27
We have one antiviral抗病毒 that people are talking about stockpiling堆存
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有一种抗病毒药是人们一直以来考虑囤积,
14:30
that still works作品, roughly大致. That's Tamiflu达菲.
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也是至今依然发挥效用的,它就是Tamiflu。
14:33
But Tamiflu达菲 -- the virus病毒 is resistant. It is resistant to Tamiflu达菲.
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但是病毒对Tamiflu是有抗药性的。
14:38
We've我们已经 discovered发现 with AIDS艾滋病 we need cocktails鸡尾酒 to work well
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在爱滋病的研究中我们已经发现鸡尾酒疗法的效果不错,
14:42
so that the viral病毒 resistance抵抗性 -- we need several一些 anti-virals抗病毒药物.
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就是说我们需要若干种抗病毒物质共同发挥作用。
14:45
We need better surveillance监控.
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我们需要更好的监控系统,
14:47
We need networks网络 that can find out what's going on.
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我们需要能发现事情征兆的网络。
14:50
We need rapid快速 diagnostics诊断 so that we can tell if somebody has
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我们需要快速的诊断,这样我们就可以判断患者
14:54
a strain应变 of flu流感 which哪一个 we have only identified确定 very recently最近.
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是否感染了最近才被发现的新的流感病毒。
14:58
We've我们已经 got to be able能够 to make the rapid快速 diagnostics诊断 quickly很快.
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我们必须能够进行快速的诊断。
15:00
We need new anti-virals抗病毒药物 and cocktails鸡尾酒. We need new kinds of vaccines疫苗.
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我们需要新的抗病毒药和鸡尾酒配方。我们需要新的疫苗类型。
15:03
Vaccines疫苗 that are broad广阔 spectrum光谱.
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更加通用的疫苗,
15:05
Vaccines疫苗 that we can manufacture制造 quickly很快.
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生产得更快的疫苗,
15:09
Cocktails鸡尾酒, more polyvalent多价 vaccines疫苗.
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多价态的鸡尾酒疫苗。
15:11
You normally一般 get a trivalent三价 vaccine疫苗 against反对 three possible可能 strains.
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你通常能见到三价的疫苗,用来抵抗三种疾病感染。
15:14
We need -- we don't know where this thing is going.
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我们还不知道以后将会如何,
15:17
We believe that if we could fill these 10 gaps空白,
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但我们相信如果我们能够填补10个这样的空白,
15:20
we have a chance机会 to help really reduce减少 the risk风险 of a pandemic流感大流行.
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我们就有机会真正降低流行病的风险,
15:26
And the difference区别 between之间 a normal正常 flu流感 season季节 and a pandemic流感大流行
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正常的季节性流感和一场流行病带来的死亡率
15:30
is about a factor因子 of 1,000 in deaths死亡
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的差别大约在1000这个数量级上,
15:33
and certainly当然 enormous巨大 economic经济 impact碰撞.
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这当然伴随着经济上的巨大影响。
15:36
So we're very excited兴奋 because we think we can fund基金 10,
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因此在接下来的几年努力中,如果我们能为10个项目进行投资,
15:39
or speed速度 up 10 projects项目 and see them come to market市场
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或者帮助10个项目尽快投入市场,
15:43
in the next下一个 couple一对 years年份 that will address地址 this.
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这将会让我们非常兴奋。
15:46
So if we can address地址, use technology技术, help address地址 education教育,
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如果我们能利用技术来解决教育问题,
15:49
help address地址 the environment环境, help address地址 the pandemic流感大流行,
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环境问题和流行病问题,
15:52
does that solve解决 the larger problem问题 that I was talking about
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那么我们能否解决我在Wired文章中
15:56
in the Wired有线 article文章? And I'm afraid害怕 the answer回答 is really no,
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提到的更大的问题呢?答案恐怕是”不能“。
16:01
because you can't solve解决 a problem问题 with the management管理 of technology技术
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因为你不能用技术来解决
16:05
with more technology技术.
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由于技术管理而产生的问题。
16:08
If we let an unlimited无限 amount of power功率 loose疏松, then we will --
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如果我们放松对权力的控制,赋予个人无限制的权力,
16:13
a very small number of people will be able能够 to abuse滥用 it.
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那么一小部分人将会滥用这些权力。
16:15
We can't fight斗争 at a million-to-one百万到一 disadvantage坏处.
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我们无法打赢一场1百万比1这样的劣势的战争,
16:19
So what we need to do is, we need better policy政策.
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所以我们需要的就是更好的政策。
16:22
And for example, some things we could do
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例如,我们能做的一件事情就是利用市场规律
16:25
that would be policy政策 solutions解决方案 which哪一个 are not really in the political政治 air空气 right now
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来建立起一些政策法规。这样的法规现在并不存在,
16:29
but perhaps也许 with the change更改 of administration行政 would be -- use markets市场.
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但也许下一届政府能够加以实施。
16:33
Markets市场 are a very strong强大 force.
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市场是一个很强大的力量,
16:35
For example, rather than trying to regulate调节 away problems问题,
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举个例子,与其禁止一些行为的发生,
16:38
which哪一个 probably大概 won't惯于 work, if we could price价钱
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这样做往往没有好的效果,如果我们能够
16:40
into the cost成本 of doing business商业, the cost成本 of catastrophe灾难,
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把灾难后果引发的成本附加到做生意的成本中,
16:45
so that people who are doing things that had a higher更高 cost成本 of catastrophe灾难
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这样人们在做事情的时候就要承担更高的风险成本,
16:48
would have to take insurance保险 against反对 that risk风险.
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那么他们就会为那些风险进行投保。
16:51
So if you wanted to put a drug药物 on the market市场 you could put it on.
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如果你想让一种新药上市,你可以这么做,
16:53
But it wouldn't不会 have to be approved批准 by regulators监管机构;
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你不需要通过监察机构的鉴定,
16:55
you'd have to convince说服 an actuary精算师 that it would be safe安全.
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但你需要说服你的保险师它是安全的。
16:59
And if you apply应用 the notion概念 of insurance保险 more broadly宽广地,
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如果你把保险的概念推而广之,
17:02
you can use a more powerful强大 force, a market市场 force,
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你可以利用一个更加强有力的力量,市场的力量
17:05
to provide提供 feedback反馈.
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来取得反馈。
17:07
How could you keep the law?
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我们如何才能让法律作用常在?
17:08
I think the law would be a really good thing to keep.
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我认为法律确实是我们应该保持并遵守的。
17:10
Well, you have to hold保持 people accountable问责.
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你必须保证人们是可以信赖的。
17:12
The law requires要求 accountability问责.
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法律规定了每个人的责任和义务。
17:14
Today今天 scientists科学家们, technologists技术专家, businessmen商人, engineers工程师
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如今科学家、科技人员、商人、工程师
17:17
don't have any personal个人 responsibility责任
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对他们的行为产生的后果
17:19
for the consequences后果 of their actions行动.
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不需要负什么个人责任。
17:21
So if you tie领带 that -- you have to tie领带 that back with the law.
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你必须把这些责任重新定义在法律中。
17:25
And finally最后, I think we have to do something that's not really --
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最后,我认为我们必须,
17:29
it's almost几乎 unacceptable不可接受 to say this -- which哪一个,
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说起来几乎让人难以接受,
17:30
we have to begin开始 to design设计 the future未来.
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我们必须开始设计我们的未来。
17:33
We can't pick the future未来, but we can steer驾驶 the future未来.
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我们不能选择未来,但我们可以掌握和操纵未来。
17:37
Our investment投资 in trying to prevent避免 pandemic流感大流行 flu流感
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我们在预防流行性疾病上所进行的投入
17:39
is affecting影响 the distribution分配 of possible可能 outcomes结果.
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将会影响将来可能产生的结果的分布。
17:43
We may可能 not be able能够 to stop it, but the likelihood可能性
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我们也许无法完全消除它们,但如果我们付出努力,
17:45
that it will get past过去 us is lower降低 if we focus焦点 on that problem问题.
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这些疾病从我们眼皮底下溜走的几率将会降低。
17:49
So we can design设计 the future未来 if we choose选择 what kind of things
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因此如果我们能够选择什么是我们希望发生的,
17:53
we want to have happen发生 and not have happen发生,
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什么不是,然后引导未来向低风险的方向去发展,
17:56
and steer驾驶 us to a lower-risk低风险 place地点.
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那么我们就可以设计未来了。
17:59
Vice President主席 Gore血块 will talk about how we could steer驾驶 the climate气候 trajectory弹道
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副总统戈尔将会谈到我们如何去影响气候的变化,
18:05
into a lower降低 probability可能性 of catastrophic灾难性的 risk风险.
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从而降低灾难发生的几率。
18:08
But above以上 all, what we have to do is we have to help the good guys,
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但最重要的是,我们必须帮助那些好人,
18:11
the people on the defensive防御性 side,
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那些处在防御位置的人们,
18:13
have an advantage优点 over the people who want to abuse滥用 things.
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去赢得优势从而战胜那些滥用技术的人们。
18:17
And what we have to do to do that
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要做到这一点,
18:19
is we have to limit限制 access访问 to certain某些 information信息.
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我们就必须控制对特定信息的访问权限。
18:22
And growing生长 up as we have, and holding保持 very high
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在我们这个环境下长大,言论的自由被赋予着极高的价值,
18:25
the value of free自由 speech言语, this is a hard thing for us to accept接受 --
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想做到这一点并不容易,
18:29
for all of us to accept接受.
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想让所有人接受并不容易。
18:30
It's especially特别 hard for the scientists科学家们 to accept接受 who still remember记得,
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尤其是对于科学家来说,他们还记得
18:35
you know, Galileo伽利略 essentially实质上 locked锁定 up,
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伽利略是如何被关起来,以及那些
18:37
and who are still fighting战斗 this battle战斗 against反对 the church教会.
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今天还在与教会进行斗争的科学工作者。
18:41
But that's the price价钱 of having a civilization文明.
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但这些都是人类文明进程中做付出的代价。
18:46
The price价钱 of retaining固定 the rule规则 of law
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维护基本法则的代价就是
18:48
is to limit限制 the access访问 to the great and kind of unbridled恣意 power功率.
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对一些影响过大的权力进行权限控制。
18:53
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
18:54
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
Translated by Xinli Geng
Reviewed by Jenny Yang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Joy - Technologist and futurist
The co-founder of Sun Microsystems, Bill Joy has, in recent years, turned his attention to the biggest questions facing humanity: Where are we going? What could go wrong? What's the next great thing?

Why you should listen

In 2003, Bill Joy left Sun Microsystems, the computer company he cofounded, with no definite plans. He'd spent the late 1970s and early 1980s working on Berkeley UNIX (he wrote the vi editor), and the next decades building beautiful high-performance workstations at Sun. Always, he'd been a kind of polite engineer-gadfly -- refusing to settle for subpar code or muddled thinking.

In 2000, with a landmark cover story in Wired called "Why the Future Doesn't Need Us," Joy began to share his larger concerns with the world. A careful observer of the nanotech industry that was growing up around his own industry, Joy saw a way forward that, frankly, frightened him. He saw a very plausible future in which our own creations supplanted us -- if not out and out killed us (e.g., the gray goo problem). His proposed solution: Proceed with caution.

Joy's now a partner at KPMG, where he reviews business plans in education, environmental improvement and pandemic defense.

More profile about the speaker
Bill Joy | Speaker | TED.com