ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.

Why you should listen

A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.

Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.

More profile about the speaker
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com
TED2009

Juan Enriquez: The next species of human

Juan Enriquez 談到令人驚訝的新科學

Filmed:
3,584,967 views

即使面對銀行的倒閉, Juan Enriques 認為復甦才要開始. 但這不是政治或是經濟帶起的甦醒. 這會是從科學實驗室帶來更高機能的人體心智. 我們的孩子將會... 非常的不同
- Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
There's a great big elephant in the room房間 called the economy經濟.
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經濟是個很重要卻又被忽視的話題
00:16
So let's start開始 talking about that.
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讓我們來聊聊它
00:18
I wanted to give you a current當前 picture圖片 of the economy經濟.
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我想讓你們對目前的經濟狀況有個概念
00:21
That's what I have behind背後 myself.
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在我身後這個
00:24
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:27
But of course課程 what we have to remember記得 is this.
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當然,我們要記得這個
00:30
And what you have to think about is,
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然後有意識知道,
00:33
when you're dancing跳舞 in the flames火焰, what's next下一個?
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當情況危急的時後, 下一步怎麼做
00:36
So what I'm going to try to do in the next下一個 17 and a half minutes分鐘
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所以在接下來的17分半中我要做的
00:39
is I'm going to talk first about the flames火焰 --
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是先來談談現在的危機--
00:41
where we are in the economy經濟 --
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目前的經濟狀況--
00:43
and then I'm going to take three trends趨勢
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讓後我將用三個
00:45
that have taken採取 place地點 at TEDTED over the last 25 years年份
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在TED過去25年裡提到的
00:48
and that will take place地點 in this conference會議
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然後會出現在這個會談裡的趨勢
00:50
and I will try and bring帶來 them together一起.
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我會試著將它們統整
00:53
And I will try and give you a sense of what the ultimate最終 reboot重啟 looks容貌 like.
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然後給各位一個最終復甦情形的概況
00:57
Those three trends趨勢 are
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這三個趨勢是
00:59
the ability能力 to engineer工程師 cells細胞,
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細胞工程
01:01
the ability能力 to engineer工程師 tissues組織,
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組織工程
01:03
and robots機器人.
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還有機器人工程
01:05
And somehow不知何故 it will all make sense.
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大家會看到為什麼
01:07
But anyway無論如何, let's start開始 with the economy經濟.
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不過我們先從談經濟開始
01:10
There's a couple一對 of really big problems問題 that are still sitting坐在 there.
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有一些很大的問題還是存在
01:13
One is leverage槓桿作用.
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一個是經濟槓桿作用
01:15
And the problem問題 with leverage槓桿作用 is
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然後它的問題是
01:17
it makes品牌 the U.S. financial金融 system系統 look like this.
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讓美國財務體系變這樣
01:20
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:27
So, a normal正常 commercial廣告 bank銀行 has nine to 10 times leverage槓桿作用.
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所以,一般的商業銀行十次裡會有九次會受到這個影響
01:30
That means手段 for every一切 dollar美元 you deposit存款, it loans貸款 out about nine or 10.
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這表示你每存1塊錢銀行可以貸款出9到10塊
01:33
A normal正常 investment投資 bank銀行 is not a deposit存款 bank銀行,
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在一個普通的投資銀行而非存款銀行
01:36
it's an investment投資 bank銀行;
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這是投資銀行
01:38
it has 15 to 20 times.
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可貸款出15到20倍的錢
01:40
It turns out that B of A in September九月 had 32 times.
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結果顯示美國銀行在九月份是32倍
01:43
And your friendly友善 Citibank花旗銀行 had 47 times.
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花旗銀行是47倍
01:46
Oops哎呀.
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01:48
That means手段 every一切 bad loan貸款 goes bad 47 times over.
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這表示每個壞帳會有47倍的影響
01:52
And that, of course課程, is the reason原因 why all of you
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然後,當然,這是為什麼在坐各位
01:55
are making製造 such這樣 generous慷慨 and wonderful精彩 donations捐款
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做出慷慨的捐獻
01:58
to these nice不錯 folks鄉親.
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給這個演講
02:03
And as you think about that,
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當你想到這裡
02:05
you've got to wonder奇蹟: so what do banks銀行 have in store商店 for you now?
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你一定好奇:那 (錢都貸款出去了)銀行現在幫你們存了什麼
02:11
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
02:20
It ain't pretty漂亮.
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情況不妙
02:23
The government政府, meanwhile與此同時, has been acting演戲 like Santa聖誕老人 Claus克勞斯.
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政府同時, 一直在扮演聖誕老人的角色
02:27
We all love Santa聖誕老人 Claus克勞斯, right?
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我們都喜歡聖誕老人對吧?
02:30
But the problem問題 with Santa聖誕老人 Clause條款 is,
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但問題是
02:33
if you look at the mandatory強制性 spending開支 of what these folks鄉親 have been doing
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如果你看到這些人做的事所用到的強制開銷
02:36
and promising有希望 folks鄉親,
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還有他們給的承諾
02:38
it turned轉身 out that in 1967, 38 percent百分 was mandatory強制性 spending開支
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結果變成在1967年, 百分之38是強制開銷
02:43
on what we call "entitlements權益."
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用在我們所謂的"權益“上
02:46
And then by 2007 it was 68 percent百分.
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然後到了2007變成百分之68
02:49
And we weren't supposed應該 to run into 100 percent百分 until直到 about 2030.
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在2030年,開銷不應該會變成百分之百
02:54
Except we've我們已經 been so busy giving away a trillion here, a trillion there,
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這邊一下用了百萬兆, 那邊一下又用了百萬兆
02:57
that we've我們已經 brought that date日期 of reckoning清算 forward前鋒
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所以將預估結果提前
03:00
to about 2017.
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到2017年
03:03
And we thought we were going to be able能夠 to lay鋪設 these debts債務 off on our kids孩子,
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我們認為可以有能力不讓孩子承擔這樣的債務
03:06
but, guess猜測 what?
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但是猜猜看
03:08
We're going to start開始 to pay工資 them.
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我們已經開始在還債了
03:10
And the problem問題 with this stuff東東 is, now that the bill's法案 come due應有,
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問題現在又變成,賬單要到期了
03:12
it turns out Santa聖誕老人 isn't quite相當 as cute可愛 when it's summertime夏令.
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而聖誕老人在夏季不是那麼可愛
03:16
Right?
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對不對?
03:18
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:30
Here's這裡的 some advice忠告 from one of the largest最大 investors投資者 in the United聯合的 States狀態.
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這是美國其中一個最大的投資家提出的一些建議
03:34
This guy runs運行 the China中國 Investment投資 Corporation公司.
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這個人經營中國的投資集團
03:37
He is the main主要 buyer買方 of U.S. Treasury金庫 bonds債券.
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他是美國國庫卷的主要買者
03:40
And he gave an interview訪問 in December十二月.
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在12月時接受訪問
03:43
Here's這裡的 his first bit of advice忠告.
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這是他給的第一個建議
03:45
And here's這裡的 his second第二 bit of advice忠告.
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這是第二個
03:50
And, by the way,
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順道一提
03:52
the Chinese中文 Prime主要 Minister部長 reiterated重申 this at Davos達沃斯 last Sunday星期日.
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中國國務總理在上星期日的達沃斯也重述這些要點
03:55
This stuff東東 is getting得到 serious嚴重 enough足夠
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情況開始不樂觀
03:57
that if we don't start開始 paying付款 attention注意 to the deficit赤字,
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如果我們不開始重視缺失
03:59
we're going to end結束 up losing失去 the dollar美元.
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我們最後會造成虧損
04:02
And then all bets賭注 are off.
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光這個就會帶來嚴重的後果
04:05
Let me show顯示 you what it looks容貌 like.
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讓大家看看情形會怎麼樣
04:08
I think I can safely安然 say
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我敢說
04:10
that I'm the only trillionaire萬億富翁 in this room房間.
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我是目前這邊的唯一百萬兆富翁
04:14
This is an actual實際 bill法案.
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這是個的紙鈔
04:16
And it's 10 triliiontriliion dollars美元.
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價值10千萬兆美金
04:19
The only problem問題 with this bill法案 is it's not really worth價值 very much.
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問題是它並不真的直那麼多錢
04:22
That was eight bucks雄鹿 last week, four bucks雄鹿 this week,
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上星期它值8塊, 這星期4塊
04:25
a buck降壓 next下一個 week.
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下星期只剩1塊了
04:27
And that's what happens發生 to currencies貨幣 when you don't stand behind背後 them.
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這就是當我們無法支撐匯率時會發生的情況
04:32
So the next下一個 time somebody as cute可愛 as this shows節目 up on your doorstep門階,
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所以下次有這麼可愛的人出現在你家門口
04:37
and sometimes有時 this creature's生物 called Chrysler克萊斯勒 and sometimes有時 Ford and sometimes有時 ... whatever隨你 you want --
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有時候它叫做克萊斯勒或是福特或有時後...隨你喜歡叫什麼--
04:44
you've just got to say no.
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你只能拒絕
04:46
And you've got to start開始 banishing放逐 a word that's called "entitlement權利."
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然後你必須開始不在用“權益”這個字
04:50
And the reason原因 we have to do that in the short term術語
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需要這麼做,在短期來看
04:53
is because we have just run out of cash現金.
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是因為我們沒錢了
04:56
If you look at the federal聯邦 budget預算, this is what it looks容貌 like.
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如果你看聯邦政府預算,就是這個樣子
04:59
The orange橙子 slice is what's discretionary.
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橘色部份是自由資金
05:02
Everything else其他 is mandated授權.
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其他都是強制資金
05:05
It makes品牌 no difference區別 if we cut out the bridges橋樑 to Alaska阿拉斯加州 in the overall總體 scheme方案 of things.
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就算斷去通往阿拉斯加的橋整個情形也不會改變
05:08
So what we have to start開始 thinking思維 about doing
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所以我們需要開始著手的
05:11
is capping封蓋 our medical spending開支
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是限制醫療支出
05:13
because that's a monster怪物 that's simply只是 going to eat the entire整個 budget預算.
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因為它是個會吞噬整個預算的怪物
05:16
We've我們已經 got to start開始 thinking思維 about asking people
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我們必須開始
05:19
to retire退休 a little bit later後來.
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要求大家晚點退休
05:22
If you're 60 to 65 you retire退休 on time.
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60到65歲退休就差不多
05:25
Your 401(k) just got nailed.
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退休金受的影響就不大
05:27
If you're 50 to 60 we want you to work two years年份 more.
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如果你是在50到60歲, 那希望你可以在多工做兩年
05:30
If you're under 50 we want you to work four more years年份.
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如果你還不到50歲,希望你可以多工做四年
05:33
The reason原因 why that's reasonable合理 is,
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為什麼這麼說合理是因為,
05:36
when your grandparents祖父母 were given特定 Social社會 Security安全,
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當你的祖父母得到社會保障時
05:38
they got it at 65 and were expected預期 to check out at 68.
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他們大概65歲開始領到68歲
05:41
Sixty-eight六十八個 is young年輕 today今天.
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現在68歲算年輕的了
05:44
We've我們已經 also got to cut the military軍事 about three percent百分 a year.
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我們也需要縮減一年3%的軍用預算
05:48
We've我們已經 got to limit限制 other mandatory強制性 spending開支.
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我們必須限制一些強制開銷
05:50
We've我們已經 got to quit放棄 borrowing借款 as much,
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我們必須停止這麼多的借貸
05:53
because otherwise除此以外 the interest利益 is going to eat that whole整個 pie餡餅.
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不然的話, 利息會佔據整個趨勢
05:56
And we've我們已經 got to end結束 up with a smaller government政府.
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然後剩下小規模的政府
05:58
And if we don't start開始 changing改變 this trend趨勢 line,
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如果不開始改變這個趨勢
06:01
we are going to lose失去 the dollar美元
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經濟就會受到影響
06:03
and start開始 to look like Iceland冰島.
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變得像冰島一樣
06:05
I got what you're thinking思維.
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我知道你們在想什麼
06:08
This is going to happen發生 when hell地獄 freezes凍結 over.
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這一切除非地獄凍結了才會發生
06:13
But let me remind提醒 you this December十二月 it did snow in Vegas拉斯維加斯.
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但是讓我提醒你, 拉斯維加斯今年十二月的確下雪了
06:18
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:23
Here's這裡的 what happens發生 if you don't address地址 this stuff東東.
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如果你們再不關注這些議題,以下這樣的事就會發生
06:26
So, Japan日本 had a fiscal real真實 estate房地產 crisis危機
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日本在80年代的時後
06:29
back in the late晚了 '80s.
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發生過地產財務危機
06:31
And its 225 largest最大 companies公司 today今天
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現今225間最大的公司
06:34
are worth價值 one quarter25美分硬幣 of what they were 18 years年份 ago.
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價值只有十八年前的四分之一
06:37
We don't fix固定 this now,
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現在我們不重視問題
06:39
how would you like to see a Dow道瓊斯 3,500 in 2026?
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你想在2026年看見道瓊指數3,500嗎?
06:42
Because that's the consequence後果 of not dealing交易 with this stuff東東.
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因為那就是現在不重視這些問題的後果
06:45
And unless除非 you want this person
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除非你要這個人
06:48
to not just become成為 the CFO首席財務官 of Florida佛羅里達, but the United聯合的 States狀態,
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不只是當佛羅里達的財務長,還是整個美國的財務長
06:51
we'd星期三 better deal合同 with this stuff東東.
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我們現在最好開始重視這些問題
06:54
That's the short term術語. That's the flame火焰 part部分.
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這是短期來看. 比較棘手的部份
06:57
That's the financial金融 crisis危機.
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財務方面的危機
06:59
Now, right behind背後 the financial金融 crisis危機 there's a second第二 and bigger wave
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現在, 跟在財務危機後面的第二波更大的浪潮
07:03
that we need to talk about.
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我們必須來談談
07:04
That wave is much larger, much more powerful強大,
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這個問題更強殺傷力更大
07:06
and that's of course課程 the wave of technology技術.
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當然,就是科技浪潮
07:09
And what's really important重要 in this stuff東東 is,
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這個重要的地方是
07:11
as we cut, we also have to grow增長.
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我們縮減預算的同時也必須要成長
07:13
Among其中 other things, because startup啟動 companies公司
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別的先不提,新起的公司
07:16
are .02 percent百分 of U.S. GDPGDP investmentminvestmentm
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佔據美國國民所得投資的 0.02%
07:18
and they're about 17.8 percent百分 of output產量.
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帶來17.8%的出產
07:23
It's groups like that in this room房間 that generate生成 the future未來 of the U.S. economy經濟.
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像一匹帶領美國未來經濟的人聚集在一起
07:26
And that's what we've我們已經 got to keep growing生長.
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而這就是我們必須繼續成長的方向
07:28
We don't have to keep growing生長 these bridges橋樑 to nowhere無處.
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我們不必毫無目標的發展
07:32
So let's bring帶來 a romance浪漫 novelist小說家 into this conversation會話.
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所以現在我們把浪漫新主義者帶進來
07:38
And that's where these three trends趨勢 come together一起.
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這就是三波趨勢匯集的地方
07:43
That's where the ability能力 to engineer工程師 microbes微生物,
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微生物工程
07:46
the ability能力 to engineer工程師 tissues組織,
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組織工程
07:48
and the ability能力 to engineer工程師 robots機器人
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和機器人工程
07:50
begin開始 to lead to a reboot重啟.
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將帶領復甦
07:52
And let me recap概括 some of the stuff東東 you've seen看到.
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讓我重述一下你們看過的東西
07:54
Craig克雷格 Venter腹部 showed顯示 up last year
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去年Craig Venter來過
07:56
and showed顯示 you the first fully充分 programmable可編程的 cell細胞 that acts行為 like hardware硬件
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展示給大家看到第一個可以完整編程, 運作起來像是電腦硬體的細胞
07:58
where you can insert DNA脫氧核糖核酸 and have it boot up as a different不同 species種類.
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你可以植入DNA, 並將它驅動行成不同的生物
08:01
In parallel平行, the folks鄉親 at MITMIT
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在這同時,MIT的人
08:04
have been building建造 a standard標準 registry註冊處 of biological生物 parts部分.
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已經開始建立生物器官的標準制式
08:07
So think of it as a Radio無線電 Shack窩棚 for biology生物學.
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把它想成是給生物學的Radio Shack (美國電子物件零售商)
08:10
You can go out and get your proteins蛋白質, your RNARNA, your DNA脫氧核糖核酸, whatever隨你.
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你可以出去買到自己的蛋白質,RNA, DNA, 等等
08:13
And start開始 building建造 stuff東東.
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然後開始組裝你要的東西
08:16
In 2006 they brought together一起 high school學校 students學生們 and college學院 students學生們
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在2006年他們聚集高中生和大專院校學生
08:19
and started開始 to build建立 these little odd creatures生物.
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開始做這些小生物
08:21
They just happened發生 to be alive instead代替 of circuit電路 boards.
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它們活起來了而並非只是電路板
08:24
Here was one of the first things they built內置.
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這是其中一個他們做的東西
08:27
So, cells細胞 have this cycle週期.
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細胞有個循環
08:29
First they don't grow增長.
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一開始它們不會長
08:31
Then they grow增長 exponentially成倍.
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然後就一下長很快
08:33
Then they stop growing生長.
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然後就不會停止生長了
08:35
Graduate畢業 students學生們 wanted a way of telling告訴 which哪一個 stage階段 they were in.
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研究生想找到方法知道細胞的成長階段
08:38
So they engineered工程 these cells細胞
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所以他們做了這樣的細胞工程
08:40
so that when they're growing生長 in the exponential指數 phase,
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當細胞急速成長的時後
08:42
they would smell like wintergreen冬青.
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會聞起來像冬青樹
08:44
And when they stopped停止 growing生長 they would smell like bananas香蕉.
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當停止生長的時後會聞起來像香蕉
08:47
And you could tell very easily容易 when your experiment實驗 was working加工
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然後實驗者就可以很容易知道哪個實驗
08:50
and wasn't, and where it was in the phase.
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是否成功了,然後在什麼階段
08:53
This got a bit more complicated複雜 two years年份 later後來.
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這個兩年之後開始變得複雜一些
08:56
Twenty-one二十一 countries國家 came來了 together一起. Dozens許多 of teams球隊.
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21個國家,很多的團體聚集在一起
08:58
They started開始 competing競爭.
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開始互相比賽
09:00
The team球隊 from Rice白飯 University大學 started開始 to engineer工程師 the substance物質 in red wine紅酒
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從Rice University 開始培養改造
09:05
that makes品牌 red wine紅酒 good for you
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紅酒裡對人體有益處的物質
09:07
into beer啤酒.
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轉到啤酒裡
09:10
So you take resveratrol白藜蘆醇 and you put it into beer啤酒.
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所以你可以提煉出葡萄中的抗氧化物質然後放到啤酒裡
09:14
Of course課程, one of the judges法官 is wandering飄零 by, and he goes,
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當然,其中一個競賽評審經過就說
09:17
"Wow! Cancer-fighting抗癌 beer啤酒! There is a God."
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"哇, 抗癌的啤酒! 上帝真的存在!"
09:21
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
09:24
The team球隊 from Taiwan台灣 was a little bit more ambitious有雄心.
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從台灣來的團隊比較有野心
09:27
They tried試著 to engineer工程師 bacterias in such這樣 a way
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他們想將微生物變成
09:30
that they would act法案 as your kidneys腎臟.
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可以有腎臟的功能
09:33
Four years年份 ago, I showed顯示 you this picture圖片.
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四年前, 我讓你們看過這個圖片
09:36
And people oohedoohed and ahhedahhed,
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大家好驚奇
09:38
because Cliff懸崖 Tabin塔賓 had been able能夠 to grow增長 an extra額外 wing翅膀 on a chicken.
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因為Cliff Tabin 可以讓雞多長出翅膀
09:41
And that was very cool stuff東東 back then.
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在當時是很酷的東西
09:44
But now moving移動 from bacterial細菌 engineering工程 to tissue組織 engineering工程,
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但是現在從微生物工程道組織工程
09:47
let me show顯示 you what's happened發生 in that period of time.
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我讓大家看看這個階段發生了什麼
09:50
Two years年份 ago, you saw this creature生物.
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兩年前,你們看到這個生物
09:53
An almost-extinct幾乎絕跡 animal動物 from Xochimilco霍奇米爾科, Mexico墨西哥
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一個從墨西哥 Xochimilco 差不多絕種的動物
09:56
called an axolotl蠑螈
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叫做 axolotl(白化六角恐龍 / 墨西哥蠑螈)
09:58
that can re-generate再生 its limbs四肢.
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牠可以自生臂膀
10:00
You can freeze凍結 half its heart. It regrows繼續生長.
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你把牠一半的心臟冷凍起來, 它會長出來
10:02
You can freeze凍結 half the brain. It regrows繼續生長.
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你把牠一半的腦子冷凍起來,它會長出來
10:04
It's almost幾乎 like leaving離開 Congress國會.
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很像國會
10:06
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:12
But now, you don't have to have the animal動物 itself本身 to regenerate再生,
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但是現在,你不須要這樣的動物來自我恢復
10:15
because you can build建立 cloned克隆 mice老鼠 molars磨牙 in PetriPetri網 dishes碗碟.
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因為你可以在培養皿中複製老鼠的臼齒
10:21
And, of course課程 if you can build建立 mice老鼠 molars磨牙 in PetriPetri網 dishes碗碟,
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當然,如果你可以在培養皿中複製老鼠的臼齒
10:25
you can grow增長 human人的 molars磨牙 in PetriPetri網 dishes碗碟.
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人類的牙齒也可以
10:28
This should not surprise you, right?
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你們應該不覺得有什麼驚奇的對吧?
10:30
I mean, you're born天生 with no teeth.
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我意思是說, 你天生就沒牙齒
10:32
You give away all your teeth to the tooth fairy仙女.
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牙齒長出來後都給牙齒精靈
10:35
You re-grow重新長出 a set of teeth.
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重長新的牙齒
10:37
But then if you lose失去 one of those second第二 set of teeth, they don't regrow重新長出,
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但是如果第二匹長出的牙齒掉了,它們就不會再長了
10:40
unless除非, if you're a lawyer律師.
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除非, 你是律師
10:42
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:46
But, of course課程, for most of us,
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但是,當然,對大部份其他人來說
10:49
we know how to grow增長 teeth, and therefore因此 we can take adult成人 stem teeth,
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我們知道牙齒怎麼長,所以可以取成人的牙齒幹細胞
10:52
put them on a biodegradable可生物降解 mold模子, re-grow重新長出 a tooth,
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放入生物培養皿重新長牙
10:55
and simply只是 implant注入 it.
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然後植牙
10:56
And we can do it with other things.
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我們也可以在別的東西上做同樣的事
10:59
So, a Spanish西班牙語 woman女人 who was dying垂死 of T.B. had a donor捐贈者 trachea氣管,
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所以,假設一個因肺結核生命垂危的西班牙裔的女子得到一個捐贈的氣管
11:04
they took all the cells細胞 off the trachea氣管,
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他們將氣管的細胞全部取出
11:06
they spraypaintedspraypainted her stem cells細胞 onto that cartilage軟骨.
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然後在軟骨上鋪上她的幹細胞
11:09
She regrew再生長 her own擁有 trachea氣管,
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她自生自己的氣管
11:11
and 72 hours小時 later後來 it was implanted植入.
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72小時後植入了
11:14
She's now running賽跑 around with her kids孩子.
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她現在快樂地和孩子們玩樂
11:16
This is going on in Tony托尼 Atala's阿塔拉的 lab實驗室 in Wake喚醒 Forest森林
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這是在Tony Atala於Wake Forest的實驗室發生的
11:19
where he is re-growing再生長 ears耳朵 for injured受傷 soldiers士兵,
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在那邊他幫忙受傷的士兵重生耳朵
11:22
and he's also re-growing再生長 bladders水囊.
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也在做膀胱的生長
11:26
So there are now nine women婦女 walking步行 around Boston波士頓
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現今有九位女士在Boston
11:29
with re-grown再生長 bladders水囊,
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有著重新生長的膀胱
11:31
which哪一個 is much more pleasant愉快 than walking步行 around with a whole整個 bunch of plastic塑料 bags包裝袋
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比下半生都要帶著塑膠袋子 (尿帶)四處走動
11:33
for the rest休息 of your life.
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感覺好太多了
11:35
This is kind of getting得到 boring無聊, right?
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開始有點無聊了嗎?
11:38
I mean, you understand理解 where this story's故事的 going.
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我是說,你知道故事演變的方向
11:40
But, I mean it gets得到 more interesting有趣.
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但越來越有趣的是
11:42
Last year, this group was able能夠 to take all the cells細胞 off a heart,
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去年,這群人可以移除所有心臟細胞
11:46
leaving離開 just the cartilage軟骨.
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只留下軟骨
11:49
Then, they sprayed stem cells細胞 onto that heart, from a mouse老鼠.
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然後,將心臟鋪滿老鼠的幹細胞
11:51
Those stem cells細胞 self-organized自組織, and that heart started開始 to beat擊敗.
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幹細胞自我組織, 心臟開始跳動了
11:55
Life happens發生.
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生命出現了
11:59
This may可能 be one of the ultimate最終 papers文件.
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這應該是最近期的發表的文章
12:02
This was doneDONE in Japan日本 and in the U.S., published發表 at the same相同 time,
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在日本和美國同步發表
12:05
and it rebooted重新啟動 skin皮膚 cells細胞 into stem cells細胞, last year.
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然後在去年將皮膚細胞轉成幹細胞
12:10
That meant意味著 that you can take the stuff東東 right here,
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那表示你可以就這樣從這邊拿東西出來
12:13
and turn it into almost幾乎 anything in your body身體.
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讓後把它變成身體的任何一部份
12:15
And this is becoming變得 common共同, it's moving移動 very quickly很快,
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這將越來越普遍, 這樣的技術發展非常快
12:18
it's moving移動 in a whole整個 series系列 of places地方.
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朝向一系列的領域發展
12:22
Third第三 trend趨勢: robots機器人.
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第三個趨勢: 機器人
12:25
Those of us of a certain某些 age年齡 grew成長 up expecting期待 that by now
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我們這個年代的人生長在期待
12:28
we would have Rosie羅西 the Robot機器人 from "The Jetsons摩登家庭" in our house.
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家裡會有"傑森一家“中的機器人Rosie
12:32
And all we've我們已經 got is a Roomba倫巴.
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但是我們只有Roomba (自動地板清潔器)
12:35
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:38
We also thought we'd星期三 have this robot機器人 to warn警告 us of danger危險.
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我們也以為會有這樣的機器人幫我們預警
12:42
Didn't happen發生.
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也沒發生
12:44
And these were robots機器人 engineered工程 for a flat平面 world世界, right?
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這些是機器人是製造用在平穩的陸地上對吧?
12:47
So, Rosie羅西 runs運行 around on skates冰鞋
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所以, Rosie穿著溜冰鞋跑來跑去
12:49
and the other one ran on flat平面 threads線程.
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然後另一個在平路上跑
12:52
If you don't have a flat平面 world世界, that's not good,
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如果地都不平就糟糕了
12:54
which哪一個 is why the robot's機器人 we're designing設計 today今天 are a little different不同.
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這是為什麼現今的機器人做得有點不一樣
13:00
This is Boston波士頓 Dynamics'動力學' "BigDog大隻的狗."
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這是Boston Dynamic的" BigDog."
13:05
And this is about as close as you can get to a physical物理 Turing圖靈 test測試.
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這是你可以看到最接近現實物質的圖靈試驗
13:08
O.K., so let me remind提醒 you, a Turing圖靈 test測試 is where you've got a wall,
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好,讓我備註一下, 圖靈試驗是當你有一道牆
13:12
you're talking to somebody on the other side of the wall,
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你在牆的另一邊說話
13:14
and when you don't know if that thing is human人的 or animal動物 --
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當你不知道說話對象是人類還是動物 --
13:17
that's when computers電腦 have reached到達 human人的 intelligence情報.
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就表示電腦已經達到人類的智力了
13:21
This is not an intelligence情報 Turing圖靈 rest休息,
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這個不是智力的圖靈試驗
13:24
but this is as close as you can get to a physical物理 Turing圖靈 test測試.
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這個已經是最接近實物的圖靈試驗
13:27
And this stuff東東 is moving移動 very quickly很快,
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這個東西移動的很快
13:29
and by the way, that thing can carry攜帶 about 350 pounds英鎊 of weight重量.
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順便提一下, 這個東西可以承載350磅的重量
13:34
These are not the only interesting有趣 robots機器人.
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這不是唯一一個有趣的機器人
13:37
You've also got flies蒼蠅, the size尺寸 of flies蒼蠅,
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我們也有蒼蠅, 跟真的蒼蠅大小一樣
13:39
that are being存在 made製作 by Robert羅伯特 Wood at Harvard哈佛.
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哈佛大學的Robert Wood做的
13:42
You've got StickybotsStickybots that are being存在 made製作 at Stanford斯坦福.
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我們還有在Stanford做的Stickybots
13:45
And as you bring帶來 these things together一起,
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當你把這些東西聚集在一起
13:48
as you bring帶來 cells細胞, biological生物 tissue組織 engineering工程 and mechanics機械學 together一起,
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同時加入細胞, 生物組織工程和機械工程結合一起
13:54
you begin開始 to get some really odd questions問題.
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你會開始發現有一些奇怪的疑問
13:57
In the last Olympics奧運會, this gentleman紳士,
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在上一次的奧運, 這位
13:59
who had several一些 world世界 records記錄 in the Special特別 Olympics奧運會,
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打破很多項特殊奧運世界紀錄的先生
14:03
tried試著 to run in the normal正常 Olympics奧運會.
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試著在一般的奧運競賽跑
14:05
The only issue問題 with Oscar奧斯卡 Pistorius皮斯托留斯
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Oscar Pistorius 唯一的問題是
14:07
is he was born天生 without bones骨頭 in the lower降低 part部分 of his legs.
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他天生腳的下半部就沒有骨頭
14:11
He came來了 within about a second第二 of qualifying排位賽.
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他想到一種讓他合格參加比賽的方式
14:13
He sued起訴 to be allowed允許 to run,
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法律訴訟參加跑步
14:16
and he won韓元 the suit適合,
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然後勝訴了
14:18
but didn't qualify修飾 by time.
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但是並沒有及時通過省核
14:20
Next下一個 Olympics奧運會, you can bet賭注 that Oscar奧斯卡, or one of Oscar's奧斯卡 successors繼任者,
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下一次奧運會, 你可以打賭是Oscar
14:25
is going to make the time.
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還是他的後繼者會及時趕上比賽
14:27
And two or three Olympics奧運會 after that, they are going to be unbeatable無與倫比.
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兩三次奧運會之後, 他們就無敵了
14:30
And as you bring帶來 these trends趨勢 together一起, and as you think of what it means手段
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當你把所有的趨勢整合一起, 然後想想它的意義
14:35
to take people who are profoundly深深 deaf, who can now begin開始 to hear --
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讓一個完全失去聽力的人可以聽見
14:39
I mean, remember記得 the evolution演化 of hearing聽力 aids艾滋病, right?
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我是說, 記得助聽器的演變嗎?
14:42
I mean, your grandparents祖父母 had these great big cones,
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你的祖父母有那樣的大圓筒
14:45
and then your parents父母 had these odd boxes盒子
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然後到你父母的年代有這樣
14:47
that would squawk發牢騷 at odd times during dinner晚餐,
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吃飯的時候會發出聲的怪盒子
14:49
and now we have these little buds that nobody沒有人 sees看到.
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然後現在我門有人看不到的小東西
14:51
And now you have cochlear人工耳蝸 implants植入物
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在來是耳蝸的植入
14:53
that go into people's人們 heads and allow允許 the deaf to begin開始 to hear.
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可以進入人腦讓聽不見的人再次有聽力
14:58
Now, they can't hear as well as you and I can.
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現在他們的聽力可以跟你我一樣好
15:00
But, in 10 or 15 machine generations they will,
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但是在10-15個機器時代後
15:03
and these are machine generations, not human人的 generations.
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這些都是機器人做的, 而非人做的
15:06
And about two or three years年份 after they can hear as well as you and I can,
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他們可以聽見大約再過2, 3年
15:10
they'll他們會 be able能夠 to hear maybe how bats蝙蝠 sing, or how whales鯨魚 talk,
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說不定就可以學會蝙蝠的聲音或是鯨魚怎麼溝通的
15:14
or how dogs小狗 talk, and other types類型 of tonal調 scales.
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或是狗怎麼說話, 還有其他種音調
15:17
They'll他們會 be able能夠 to focus焦點 their hearing聽力,
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他們可以集中注意在聽力
15:19
they'll他們會 be able能夠 to increase增加 the sensitivity靈敏度, decrease減少 the sensitivity靈敏度,
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可以增加或減少強度
15:22
do a series系列 of things that we can't do.
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做很多我們可以做的事
15:24
And the same相同 thing is happening事件 in eyes眼睛.
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同樣的東西發生在視力
15:27
This is a group in Germany德國 that's beginning開始 to engineer工程師 eyes眼睛
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這邊有一個德國的團隊開始在製造眼睛
15:30
so that people who are blind can begin開始 to see light and dark黑暗.
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看不見的人可以開始分辨明暗
15:34
Very primitive原始.
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非常基本的
15:36
And then they'll他們會 be able能夠 to see shape形狀.
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他們開始可以看到形狀
15:38
And then they'll他們會 be able能夠 to see color顏色, and then they'll他們會 be able能夠 to see in definition定義,
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可以看見顏色, 而且看得很清晰
15:41
and one day, they'll他們會 see as well as you and I can.
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然後有一天, 他們會可以看見像你我看到的東西
15:44
And a couple一對 of years年份 after that, they'll他們會 be able能夠 to see in ultraviolet紫外線,
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再過幾年他們就能看見紫外線光
15:47
they'll他們會 be able能夠 to see in infrared紅外線, they'll他們會 be able能夠 to focus焦點 their eyes眼睛,
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可以看見紅外線, 可以焦距視力
15:49
they'll他們會 be able能夠 to come into a microfocus微焦點.
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可以在微距看東西
15:52
They'll他們會 do stuff東東 you and I can't do.
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他們可以做到你我都做不了的東西
15:55
All of these things are coming未來 together一起,
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這些匯集在一起
15:57
and it's a particularly尤其 important重要 thing to understand理解,
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這是一個特別重要需要大家理解的事
16:01
as we worry擔心 about the flames火焰 of the present當下,
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當我們現在擔心眼前的炙手問題時
16:04
to keep an eye on the future未來.
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要關注未來
16:07
And, of course課程, the future未來 is looking back 200 years年份,
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當然, 未來是往後看200年
16:10
because next下一個 week is the 200th anniversary週年 of Darwin's達爾文 birth分娩.
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因為下個星期是達爾文200歲的生日
16:14
And it's the 150th anniversary週年 of the publication出版物 of "The Origin起源 of Species種類."
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也是物種原始發表的150年紀年日
16:20
And Darwin達爾文, of course課程, argued爭論 that evolution演化 is a natural自然 state.
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達爾文認為進化是自然的狀態
16:24
It is a natural自然 state in everything that is alive, including包含 hominids原始人.
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是任何有生命的生物, 包括人類的自然狀態
16:30
There have actually其實 been 22 species種類 of hominids原始人
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有22種類人物種
16:35
that have been around, have evolved進化, have wandered逛到 in different不同 places地方,
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存在, 演化, 分佈在不同的地方
16:39
have gone走了 extinct絕種.
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他們已經絕種了
16:41
It is common共同 for hominids原始人 to evolve發展.
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所以類人生物進化是很常見的
16:46
And that's the reason原因 why, as you look at the hominid原始人 fossil化石 record記錄,
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這是為什麼當你看到人類化石的紀錄
16:49
erectus直立人, and heidelbergensis海德堡, and floresiensis弗洛勒斯, and Neanderthals尼安德特人,
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直立人, 海德堡人, 佛羅勒斯人還有尼安德特人,
16:57
and Homo智人 sapiens智人, all overlap交疊.
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智人, 都有重複特徵
17:02
The common共同 state of affairs事務 is to have overlapping重疊 versions版本 of hominids原始人,
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這通常表示有重複類型的類人物種
17:07
not one.
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不是只有一種
17:09
And as you think of the implications啟示 of that,
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當你想想背後的涵意,
17:11
here's這裡的 a brief簡要 history歷史 of the universe宇宙.
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這是簡短的宇宙歷史
17:13
The universe宇宙 was created創建 13.7 billion十億 years年份 ago,
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宇宙是137億年前產生的
17:16
and then you created創建 all the stars明星, and all the planets行星,
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然後有恆星跟行星
17:18
and all the galaxies星系, and all the Milky乳白色 Ways方法.
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所有的星系和銀河系
17:20
And then you created創建 Earth地球 about 4.5 billion十億 years年份 ago,
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然後地球是45億產生的
17:23
and then you got life about four billion十億 years年份 ago,
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40億年後出現生命
17:26
and then you got hominids原始人 about 0.006 billion十億 years年份 ago,
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600萬年前出現類人猿
17:30
and then you got our version of hominids原始人 about 0.0015 billion十億 years年份 ago.
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我們這樣的人類在150萬年前出現
17:35
Ta-dahTA-DAH!
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Ta-dah!
17:37
Maybe the reason原因 for thrTHR creation創建 of the universe宇宙,
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或許, 宇宙起源的原因
17:39
and all the galaxies星系, and all the planets行星, and all the energy能源,
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還有這些星系跟行星跟能源
17:42
and all the dark黑暗 energy能源, and all the rest休息 of stuff東東
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所以暗物質還有其他東西
17:44
is to create創建 what's in this room房間.
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是為了創造這個房間裡的所有東西
17:48
Maybe not.
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或許不是
17:51
That would be a mildly溫和 arrogant傲慢 viewpoint觀點.
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這樣的觀點或許有些自大
17:54
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
17:59
So, if that's not the purpose目的 of the universe宇宙, then what's next下一個?
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如果這不是宇宙的意義那會是什麼?
18:04
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
18:08
I think what we're going to see is we're going to see a different不同 species種類 of hominid原始人.
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我想我們將看的是不同的類人物種
18:13
I think we're going to move移動 from a Homo智人 sapiens智人 into a Homo智人 evolutisevolutis.
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我想我們會從智人變成演化人
18:17
And I think this isn't 1,000 years年份 out.
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我認為這不是1000年後的事情
18:19
I think most of us are going to glance一瞥 at it,
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大多數的我們都只能看到一下子
18:22
and our grandchildren孫子 are going to begin開始 to live生活 it.
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我們的子孫將會活在那樣的環境裡
18:24
And a Homo智人 evolutisevolutis brings帶來 together一起 these three trends趨勢
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演化人將三個趨勢聚集在一起
18:27
into a hominid原始人 that takes direct直接 and deliberate商榷 control控制
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變成一種直接對
18:30
over the evolution演化 of his species種類, her species種類 and other species種類.
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後來的類人演變的控制
18:35
And that, of course課程, would be the ultimate最終 reboot重啟.
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到時後, 當然, 會是終極的復甦
18:39
Thank you very much.
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謝謝
18:41
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.

Why you should listen

A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.

Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.

More profile about the speaker
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com