Sara Menker: A global food crisis may be less than a decade away
莎拉·蒙克尔: 全球粮食危机可能在下个10年来临
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets. Full bio
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全世界都在讨论一个话题,
around a coming global food crisis
nine billion people by 2050?
怎么来养活90亿人口?
and dialogue around global food security
每一期博客,每一场对话
70 percent more food.
hit all-time highs in 2008.
全球粮食价格达到了历史最高点。
that they were paying attention
他们在关注这个问题,
is so far into the future
a lot sooner than that.
a different question.
that I learned trading
change occurs so rapidly
structural capacity to produce food.
can no longer keep up with demand
to some type of structural change.
and governments may fall.
does supply struggle
for me while I was trading
how broken the system was
整个体系是如此不完善,
to make such critical decisions.
背后的支持数据又如此之少。
from a career on Wall Street
like every single person in this room,
就像在座的每一个人,
a coming global food security crisis.
全球粮食危机。
of data we sit on,
we've been working on this problem
我们在研究这个问题,
that I'm sharing what we discovered.
is actually a decade from now.
会出现在10年之后。
to fill this gap.
is different from how I started,
quantified using mass:
in terms of weight?
and determine tonnage on a ship
加一个计算器,
airplanes and oxcarts.
in food is nutritional value.
to the US for university.
到美国念大学的时候。
as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
但是在美国,
a certain fullness to my figure.
对我的身体而言是有点多的。
is a very large number,
of trillions of calories.
意味着什么。
379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
全世界将短缺3790亿个巨无霸汉堡。
than McDonald's has ever produced.
所有巨无霸还要多。
to these numbers in the first place?
where the world was 40 years ago.
in every country in the world.
consumed in that country
in that same country.
on malnutrition or anything else.
are consumed in a single year
were net exporters of calories,
净出口国是如此之少,
used to actually be food self-sufficient.
当时居然是自给自足的。
that's occurred in the world.
as an agricultural powerhouse.
from red to blue.
that you see on this map.
that started off so similarly
had a green revolution.
has actually been exporting calories.
它甚至开始出口卡路里。
over 300 trillion calories a year.
每年进口300万亿卡路里。
from the blue to the bright red?
变成了明亮的红色。
on a very similar path to India
to global agricultural markets.
而言非常重要。
at the same time as China's rise,
were still somewhat balanced.
it's not just a story of China.
不仅仅关于中国。
to overtake that of India's and China's.
the world's population.
really interesting challenges
we're hit hard with that reality.
India has been food self-sufficient.
印度的粮食是自给自足的。
that this will continue.
a net importer of calories.
卡路里净进口国。
from a population growth standpoint
optimistic assumptions
can have huge implications.
可能会造成巨大的后果。
to be a net importer of calories,
作为卡路里净进口地区,
and economic growth.
production growth assumptions.
higher-calorie-content foods.
challenge for the world.
over the next decade of production
South America and Europe.
going to come from South America.
实际上会来自于南美。
at the huge cost of deforestation.
at the combined demand increase
and the African continent,
the combined increase in production
China, the African continent,
a 214-trillion-calorie deficit,
214万亿卡路里的空缺,
we take all the extra calories
我们把北美、南美和欧洲
South America and Europe
to India, China and Africa.
is a vision of an impossible world.
是一个无解的世界。
or reducing food waste,
have been going on for some time now.
because those arguments
to change their behavior
to change their behavior
that comes from the red regions.
有一个替代方案。
of how much more land it actually has
water resource availability issues.
in India and in Africa.
in terms of potential yield increases.
between its current yield
maximum yield it can achieve.
arable land remaining, but not much,
on the other hand,
upside potential in yields.
African yields in corn today,
yields were in 1940.
to figure this out,
的时间来解决问题了,
about commercial farming alone.
banking and insurance industries.
is about taking agriculture
to one where fortunes can be made.
变成可以致富的行业。
is not about just farmers.
the entire agricultural system.
also means confronting the fact
我们要面对一个事实,
the burden of growth
and the introduction of commercial farms
farmers can leverage.
or commercial agriculture,
of the coexistence and success
alongside commercial agriculture.
for success in the industry --
how much money you have
and maximize probability of success
really hard to make this a reality.
正在努力将这一切变成现实。
to this new, bold initiative,
the 214-trillion gap that I talked about,
刚刚谈到的214万亿卡路里的问题,
on a whole new path.
as the world's next dark blue region.
下一个深蓝色的区域。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sara Menker - Technology entrepreneurSara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a tech company that marries the application of machine learning with domain expertise and enables users to understand and predict global food and agriculture markets.
Why you should listen
Sara Menker is founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, a technology company that is bridging data gaps across the global agriculture sector, empowering decision makers and creating a more informed, connected, efficient and productive global agriculture industry.
Prior to founding Gro, Menker was a vice president in Morgan Stanley's commodities group. She began her career in commodities risk management, where she covered all commodity markets, and she subsequently moved to trading, where she managed a trading portfolio. Menker is a trustee of the Mandela Institute For Development Studies (MINDS) and a trustee of the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). She was named a Global Young Leader by the World Economic Forum and is a fellow of the African Leadership Initiative of the Aspen Institute.
Sara Menker | Speaker | TED.com