TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling om global befolkningsvækst
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Verdens befolkning vil vokse til ni milliarder over de næste 50 år -- og kun ved at hæve levestandarden for de fattigste kan vi bremse befolkningstilvæksten. Det er det paradoksale svar, som Hans Rosling ved hjælp af farverig, ny datateknologi afslører på TED@Cannes (vent bare og se).
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Jeg husker stadig den skoledag,
00:18
when our teacher told us
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da vores lærer fortalte os,
00:21
that the world population had become
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at verdens befolkning havde nået
00:23
three billion people,
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tre milliarder mennesker.
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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Og det var i 1960.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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Og jeg vil tale med jer om,
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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hvordan verdens befolkning har ændret sig fra det år
00:33
and into the future,
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og ind i fremtiden.
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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Men jeg vil ikke bruge digital teknologi,
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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sådan som jeg har gjort det i mine første fem TED-talks.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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I stedet har jeg udviklet mig.
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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Jeg vil, i dag, lancere
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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en splinterny analog undervisningsteknologi,
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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som jeg har købt i IKEA:
00:51
this box.
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denne kasse.
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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Denne kasse indeholder én milliard mennesker.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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Og vores lærer fortalte os,
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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at den industrialiserede verden, anno 1960,
01:00
had one billion people.
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havde én milliard mennesker.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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I udviklingslandene, sagde hun,
01:04
they had two billion people.
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var der to milliarder mennesker.
01:06
And they lived away then.
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Og de levede deres liv.
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Der var en stor kløft mellem
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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den ene milliard i den industrialiserede verden
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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og de to milliarder i udviklingslandene.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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I den industrialiserede verden
01:17
people were healthy,
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var folk sunde,
01:19
educated, rich,
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veluddannede, rige,
01:21
and they had small families.
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og de havde små familier.
01:23
And their aspiration
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Og deres ambitioner
01:25
was to buy a car.
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var at købe en bil.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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Og i 1960 sparede alle svenskere op
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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til at kunne købe en Volvo som denne.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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Det var det økonomiske niveau, Sverige var på.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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I modsætning hertil,
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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i udviklingslandene, langt væk,
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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var ambitionerne for den gennemsnitlige familie
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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at få mad hver dag.
01:46
They were saving
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Og de sparede op
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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til at kunne købe et par sko.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Der var en enorm kløft i verden,
01:53
when I grew up.
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da jeg var barn.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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Og denne kløft mellem Vesten og resten
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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har skabt en forestilling om verden,
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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som vi stadig bruger sprogligt,
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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når vi taler om "Vesten"
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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og "Udviklingslandene."
02:07
But the world has changed,
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Men verden har forandret sig,
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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og det er på tide at opgradere den forestilling
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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og den taksonomi over verden, og at forstå den, som den er nu.
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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Og det er det, jeg vil vise jer.
02:17
because since 1960
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For siden 1960,
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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hvad der er sket i verden frem til 2010
02:23
is that a staggering
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er at forbløffende
02:25
four billion people
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fire milliarder mennesker
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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er blevet lagt til verdens befolkning.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Se bare hvor mange.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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Verden befolkning er fordoblet,
02:33
since I went to school.
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siden jeg gik i skole.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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Og selvfølgelig har der været økonomisk vækst i Vesten.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Masser af virksomheder har udvidet økonomien,
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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sådan at den vestlige befolkning har bevæget sig herover.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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Og nu er deres ambitioner ikke bare at få en bil.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Nu vil de på ferie til fjerntliggende destinationer,
02:52
and they want to fly.
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og de vil flyve.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Så det er, hvor de er i dag.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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Og de mest succesrige udviklingslande
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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har bevæget sig fremad, ikke også?
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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Og de er blevet vækstøkonomier, som vi kalder vi dem.
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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Og nu køber de biler.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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Og det, der skete for en måned siden,
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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var, at det kinesiske firma Geely
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
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købte Volvo.
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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Og da forstod svenskerne endelig,
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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at noget stort er sket i verden.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
03:20
So there they are.
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Så der er de nu.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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Og tragedien er, at de to milliarder herovre
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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[stadig] kæmper for mad og sko,
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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de er stadig næsten lige så fattige,
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
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som de var for 50 år siden.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Det nye er,
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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at vi har den største stabel af kasser, de tre milliarder her,
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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som også er ved at blive vækstøkonomier,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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for de er ret sunde, forholdsvis veluddannede,
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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og de har også allerede to eller tre børn
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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pr. kvinde, ligesom disse [rigere] har.
03:48
And their aspiration now
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Og deres ambitioner er nu,
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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selvfølgelig, at købe en cykel,
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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og senere vil de også gerne have en motorcykel.
03:56
But this is the world
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Men det er den verden,
03:59
we have today,
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vi lever i i dag.
04:01
no longer any gap.
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Der er ikke længere nogen kløft.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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Men forskellen mellem de fattigste her, de allerfattigste,
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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og de allerrigeste herovre, er større end nogensinde.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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Men der er en kontinuitet i verden,
04:11
from walking, biking,
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fra at gå, cykle,
04:13
driving, flying --
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køre til at flyve --
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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[der er] folk på alle trin.
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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Og de fleste mennesker er et sted i midten.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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Dette er den nye verden, vi lever i i dag
04:23
in 2010.
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i 2010.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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Og hvad vil der ske i fremtiden?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Altså, jeg vil kigge frem i tiden,
04:32
into 2050.
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til 2050.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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For nylig var jeg i Shanghai.
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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Og jeg lyttede til, hvad der sker i Kina.
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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Og jeg er ret sikker på, at de kan indhente det,
04:42
just as Japan did.
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ligesom Japan gjorde.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Alle fremskrivningerne [siger, at] denne [milliard kun] vil vokse med
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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én, to eller tre procent.
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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[Men de her] vokser med syv, otte procent. Og de vil ende her.
04:51
They will start flying.
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De begynder at flyve.
04:53
And these
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Og de her
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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lav- eller mellemindkomstlande, vækstøkonomierne,
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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de vil også springe fremad økonomisk.
05:01
And if,
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Og hvis,
05:03
but only if,
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men kun hvis,
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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vi investerer i de rigtige grønne teknologier --
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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så vi kan undgå voldsomme klimaforandringer,
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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og energi kan blive ved med at være forholdsvis billigt --
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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så vil de bevæge sig hele vejen herop.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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Og de vil begynde at købe
05:18
electric cars.
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elektriske biler.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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Det er det, vi vil se her.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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Men hvad så med de fattigste to milliarder?
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
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Hvad med de her to milliarder?
05:28
Will they move on?
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Vil de bevæge sig fremad?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Her kommer befolkningstilvæksten ind i billedet,
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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fordi vi [i vækstøkonomierne] allerede ser to til tre børn pr. kvinde,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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familieplanlægning er vidt udbredt,
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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og befolkningstilvæksten stopper.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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[Men her blandt de fattigste] vokser befolkningen.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Så disse [fattigste] to milliarder vil, i de kommende årtier,
05:45
increase to three billion,
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blive til tre milliarder.
05:47
and they will thereafter
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Og derefter vil de
05:49
increase to four billion.
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blive til fire milliarder.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Der er intet --
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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bortset fra atomkrig af en art vi aldrig har set --
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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der kan stoppe den udvikling.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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For denne proces [væksten] er allerede i gang.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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Men hvis, og kun hvis,
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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[de fattigste] kommer ud af fattigdommen,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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kan de få uddannelse, og de kan opnå en reduceret børnedødelighed,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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og de kan købe en cykel og en mobiltelefon og komme herhen [at bo],
06:11
then population growth
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og så vil befolkningstilvæksten
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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stoppe i 2050.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Vi kan ikke have folk på dette udviklingstrin,
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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der mangler mad og sko,
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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for så fortsætter befolkningstilvæksten.
06:23
And let me show you why
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Og lad mig vise jer hvorfor
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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ved at skifte til gammeldags
06:28
digital technology.
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digital teknologi.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Her på skærmen har jeg
06:32
my country bubbles.
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mine lande-bobler.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Hver boble er et land. Størrelsen svarer til befolkningen.
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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Farverne viser kontinentet.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Gul er Nord- og Sydamerika,
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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mørkeblå er Afrika, brun er Europa,
06:42
green is the Middle East
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grøn er Mellemøsten,
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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og lyseblå er Sydasien.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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Der er Indien, og det her er Kina. Størrelsen svarer til befolkningen.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Her har jeg børn pr. kvinde,
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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to børn, fire børn, seks børn, otte børn --
06:54
big families, small families.
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store familier [versus] små familier.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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Dette er år 1960.
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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Og hernede er overlevelsesraten for børn,
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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procentdelen af børn der overlever barndommen
07:03
up to starting school:
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indtil skolealderen.
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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60 procent, 70 procent, 80 procent, 90,
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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og næsten 100 procent, sådan som vi har det i dag
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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i de rigeste og sundeste lande i verden.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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Men se her, dette er den verden, min lærer fortalte om i 1960.
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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Én milliard herovre i Vesten,
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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høje overlevelsesrater for børn, små familier.
07:21
and all the rest,
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Og resten,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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denne regnbue af udviklingslande,
07:25
with very large families
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med meget store familier
07:27
and poor child survival.
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og ringe overlevelsesrater.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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Hvad er der sket? Jeg kører verden. Lad os se.
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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Kan du se, hvordan, som årene går, overlevelsesraterne for børn stiger?
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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De får sæbe, hygiejne, uddannelse,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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vaccinationer og penicillin.
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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Og så familieplanlægning. Størrelsen på familierne falder.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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[Når] de når op til 90 procents overlevelse, begynder størrelsen på familierne at falde.
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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Og de fleste af de arabiske lande i Mellemøsten
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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falder her ned [til små familier].
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Se, Bangladesh haler ind på Indien.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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[Alle] vækstøkonomierne [i] verden
07:54
joins the Western world
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slutter sig til den vestlige verden
07:56
with good child survival
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med gode overlevelsesrater
07:58
and small family size,
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og små familier.
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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Men vi har stadig den fattigste milliard.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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Kan I se den fattigste milliard,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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de [to] kasser jeg havde herovre?
08:07
They are still up here.
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De er stadig heroppe.
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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Og de har stadig overlevelsesrater for børn
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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på kun 70 til 80 procent,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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hvilket betyder, at hvis du føder seks børn,
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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så vil mindst fire af dem overleve
08:17
to the next generation.
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til næste generation.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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Og befolkningen vil fordobles på én generation.
08:22
So the only way
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Så den eneste måde
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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for alvor at stoppe befolkningstilvæksten på,
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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er ved at blive ved med at at forbedre overlevelsesraterne for børn
08:29
to 90 percent.
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til 90 procent.
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Det er derfor investeringerne [i sundhed] fra Gates Foundation,
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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UNICEF og nødhjælpsorganisationerne
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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sammen med de nationale regeringer i de fattigste lande
08:37
are so good;
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er så gode.
08:39
because they are actually
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For de hjælper os
08:41
helping us to reach
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til at nå
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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en bæredygtig befolkningsstørrelse i verden.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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Vi kan stoppe ved ni milliarder, hvis vi handler rigtigt.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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Overlevelsesrater for børn er det nye grønne.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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Det er kun ved hjælp af lavere børnedødelighed,
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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vi kan stoppe befolkningstilvæksten.
08:56
And will it happen?
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Og vil det lykkes?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Altså, jeg er ikke nogen optimist,
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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men jeg er heller ikke pessimist.
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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Jeg er en meget alvorlig "mulighed-list."
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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Det er en ny kategori, hvor vi ser bort fra følelser
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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og kun arbejder analytisk med verden.
09:11
It can be done.
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Det er muligt.
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Vi kan få en langt mere retfærdig verden.
09:17
With green technology
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Med grøn teknologi
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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og med investeringer i fattigdomsbekæmpelse,
09:21
and global governance,
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og med god global ledelse,
09:23
the world can become like this.
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kan verden blive sådan.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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Og se på det gamle Vestens position.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Kan I huske, da denne blå kasse var helt alene,
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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forrest, og levede sit eget liv.
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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Det kommer ikke til at ske igen.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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Vesten rolle i den nye verden
09:39
is to become the foundation
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er at blive [en del af] fundamentet
09:41
of the modern world --
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for den moderne verden --
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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hverken mere eller mindre.
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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Men det er en meget vigtig rolle.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Gør det godt, og lær at leve med det.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Mange tak.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com