TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling o rasti svetovnega prebivalstva
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V naslednjih 50 letih se bo število prebivalcev sveta dvignilo na devet milijard - in le z višanjem življenjskega standarda najrevnejših lahko sploh preverjamo rast prebivalstva. Hans Rosling razkrije ta paradoksalni odgovor na TED@Cannes z uporabo barvite tehnologije za prikaz podatkov (boste videli).
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Še vedno se spomnim šolskega dne,
00:18
when our teacher told us
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ko nam je učiteljica povedala,
00:21
that the world population had become
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da je na svetu
00:23
three billion people,
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tri milijarde ljudi.
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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To je bilo leta 1960.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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Govoril bom o tem,
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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kako se je svetovno prebivalstvo spremenilo odtlej
00:33
and into the future,
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in kako se bo v prihodnosti.
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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A ne bom uporabljal digitalne tehnologije,
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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kot sem jo na prvih petih TED predstavitvah.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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Namesto tega sem napredoval.
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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Zato vam danes predstavljam
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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čisto novo analogno učno tehnologijo,
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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ki sem jo kupil v IKEI:
00:51
this box.
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to škatlo.
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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V tej škatli je milijarda ljudi.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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In učiteljica nam je povedala,
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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da ima industrializirani svet, leta 1960,
01:00
had one billion people.
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eno milijardo ljudi.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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V razvijajočem se svetu, je dejala,
01:04
they had two billion people.
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sta dve milijardi ljudi.
01:06
And they lived away then.
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Takrat so živeli daleč stran od nas.
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Velika razlika je med
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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eno milijardo industrializiranega sveta
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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in dvema milijardama sveta v razvoju.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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V industrializiranemu svetu,
01:17
people were healthy,
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so ljudje bili zdravi,
01:19
educated, rich,
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izobraženi, bogati,
01:21
and they had small families.
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in so imeli majhne družine.
01:23
And their aspiration
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Njihova želja je bila
01:25
was to buy a car.
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kupiti avto.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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V šestdesetih so vsi Švedi varčevali
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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za takšnega Volvota.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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To je bila gospodarska raven Švedske.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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A v nasprotju s tem,
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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v svetu razvoja, daleč stran,
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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je bila glavna želja vsake družine,
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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vsakdanji kruh.
01:46
They were saving
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Varčevali so
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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za par čevljev.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Med nami in njimi je bil ogromen prepad,
01:53
when I grew up.
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v času, ko sem odraščal.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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In ta prepad med Zahodom in ostalimi
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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je ustvaril svetovno mentaliteto,
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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ki je še vedno prisotna v jeziku,
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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ko govorimo o "Zahodu"
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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in "državah v razvoju".
02:07
But the world has changed,
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A svet se je spremenil
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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in skrajni čas je, da nadgradimo to mentaliteto
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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in predalčkanje sveta ter ga razumeti takšnega, kakršen je.
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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In to vam bom pokazal.
02:17
because since 1960
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Kajti od leta 1960
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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pa do danes,
02:23
is that a staggering
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se je neverjetnih
02:25
four billion people
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štiri milijarde ljudi
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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dodalo k svetovnemu prebivalstvu.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Kar poglejte kako veliko.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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Prebivalstvo se je podvojilo,
02:33
since I went to school.
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odkar sem hodil v šolo.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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In seveda se je Zahod gospodarsko razvijal.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Veliko podjetij je pomagalo pri tem razvoju,
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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zato se je Zahodna civilizacija pomaknila do tukaj.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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Njihova želja ni več le avto.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Želijo počitnice na oddaljenih krajih
02:52
and they want to fly.
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in hočejo potovati z letalom.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Tukaj smo danes.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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In tudi najuspešnejše države v razvoju
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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so napredovale, veste.
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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Zdaj jim rečemo gospodarstva v vzponu.
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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In tudi oni zdaj kupujejo avtomobile.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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Pred enim mesecem
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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je kitajsko podjetje Geely
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
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kupilo podjetje Volvo.
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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In takrat so Švedi končno dojeli,
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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da se je zgodila velika sprememba.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:20
So there they are.
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Tukaj jih imate.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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Grozljivo je, da se dve milijardi ljudi
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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še vedno bori za hrano in čevlje,
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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saj so še vedno tako revni,
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
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kot so bili pred 50 leti.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Novost je v tem,
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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da imamo največji kup, tri milijarde ljudi,
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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ki tudi postajajo gospodarstva v vzponu,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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saj so dokaj zdravi, relativno dobro izobraženi
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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in že imajo dva do tri otroke
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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na žensko, tako kot bogati.
03:48
And their aspiration now
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Njihova želja je,
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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seveda, kupiti kolo,
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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kasneje pa bodo hoteli še motor.
03:56
But this is the world
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To je svet,
03:59
we have today,
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v katerem živimo danes.
04:01
no longer any gap.
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Nobenega prepada ni več.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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A razdalja med najrevnejšimi
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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in najbogatejšimi je največja v zgodovini.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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A svet se neprestano razvija
04:11
from walking, biking,
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od hoje in kolesarjenja
04:13
driving, flying --
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do vožnje in letenja -
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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ljudje smo na vseh nivojih.
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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In večina jih je nekje na sredini.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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To je današnji svet,
04:23
in 2010.
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v letu 2010.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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Kaj nam prinaša prihodnost?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Premaknil se bom
04:32
into 2050.
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v leto 2050.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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Nedavno sem bil v Šanghaju.
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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Poslušal sem, kaj se dogaja na Kitajskem.
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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Prepričan sem, da nas bodo ujeli,
04:42
just as Japan did.
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tako kot so nas Japonci.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Napovedi pravijo, da bo ta milijarda
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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zrasla le za dva ali tri odstotke.
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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Ta druga pa s sedmimi ali osmimi odstotki. Pristali bodo tukaj.
04:51
They will start flying.
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Začeli bodo leteti.
04:53
And these
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In te
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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revnejše ali srednje revne države, vzpenjajoče države,
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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se bodo tudi gospodarsko razvile.
05:01
And if,
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In če,
05:03
but only if,
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a samo če,
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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bomo vlagali v pravo zeleno tehnologijo,
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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da se izognemo resnim klimatskim spremembam,
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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in ohranimo energijo relativno poceni,
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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potem se lahko premaknejo sem.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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Potem bodo kupovali
05:18
electric cars.
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električne avtomobile.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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To nas čaka tam.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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Kaj pa najrevnejši dve milijardi?
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
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Dve milijardi revnih tukaj?
05:28
Will they move on?
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Se bodo razvili?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Tukaj se rast dogaja zato,
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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ker že imajo dva do tri otroke na žensko,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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družine se načrtujejo,
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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rast pa se ustavlja.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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Najrevnejše prebivalstvo pa raste.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Najrevnejši milijardi bosta v naslednjih desetletjih
05:45
increase to three billion,
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zrastli na tri milijarde.
05:47
and they will thereafter
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Kmalu pa bo številka dosegla
05:49
increase to four billion.
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tudi štiri milijarde.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Ničesar ni,
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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razen še nevidene jedrske vojne,
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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kar bi lahko to rast ustavilo.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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Rast se namreč že dogaja.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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A le če se
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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najrevnejši izvlečejo iz revščine,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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dobijo izobrazbo in zmanjšajo smrtnost otrok,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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če lahko kupijo kolesa in telefone ter pridejo živet sem,
06:11
then population growth
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potem se bo rast prebivalstva
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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ustavila do leta 2050.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Ne moremo si privoščiti ljudi,
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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ki bi še vedno iskali hrano in čevlje,
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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saj se rast prebivalstva tako ne bo ustavila.
06:23
And let me show you why
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Naj vam pokažem kako,
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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z vrnitvijo na staromodno
06:28
digital technology.
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digitalno tehnologijo.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Na zaslonu lahko vidite
06:32
my country bubbles.
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države-balončke.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Vsak balonček je država, velikost pa predstavlja prebivalstvo.
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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Barve ponazarjajo celine.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Rumena barva sta Ameriki,
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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temno modra je Afrika, rjava Evropa,
06:42
green is the Middle East
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zelena je Srednji Vzhod,
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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svetlo modra pa Južna Azija.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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To je Indija in to je Kitajska. Velikost predstavlja prebivalstvo.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Tukaj so podatki o otrocih na žensko,
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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dva, štirje, šest in osem otrok -
06:54
big families, small families.
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primerjava velikih in manjših družin.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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To je leto 1960.
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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Tu spodaj pa smrtnost otrok,
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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odstotek otrok, ki preživijo otroštvo,
07:03
up to starting school:
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do začetka šolanja.
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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60, 70, 80, 90 odstotkov
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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in skoraj 100 odstotkov, kakršno je stanje
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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v bogatejših in bolj zdravih državah.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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Poglejte, to je svet, o katerem je govorila učiteljica leta 1960.
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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Zahodni svet z milijardo prebivalcev,
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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nizka smrtnost otrok, manjše družine.
07:21
and all the rest,
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In vsi ostali,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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mavrica držav v razvoju,
07:25
with very large families
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z velikimi družinami
07:27
and poor child survival.
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in visoko smrtnostjo otrok.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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Kaj se je zgodilo? Zagnal bom svet.
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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Vidite, da se smrtnost otrok manjša, ko minevajo leta?
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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Dobijo milo, higieno, izobrazbo,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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cepiva in penicilin.
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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Družine se načrtujejo in so vedno manjše.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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Ko porod preživi 90% otrok, se družine manjšajo.
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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Večina arabskih držav na Srednjem Vzhodu
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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pada semkaj, k manjšim družinam.
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Bangladeš že lovi Indijo.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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Vsa svetovna gospodarstva v vzponu
07:54
joins the Western world
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se pridružijo Zahodnemu svetu,
07:56
with good child survival
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z nizko smrtnostjo otrok
07:58
and small family size,
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in manjšimi družinami.
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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A še vedno imamo revno milijardo.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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Vidite revno milijardo,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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dve škatli, ki jih imam tam?
08:07
They are still up here.
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Še vedno so tam.
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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Še vedno preživi
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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le okrog 70 do 80 odstotkov otrok,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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kar pomeni, da na šest novorojenčkov
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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naslednjo generacijo
08:17
to the next generation.
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doživijo vsaj štirje.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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V eni generaciji se bo število ljudi podvojilo.
08:22
So the only way
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Edini način,
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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da ustavimo rast prebivalstva,
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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je nižanje smrtnosti otrok,
08:29
to 90 percent.
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tako da jih preživi vsaj 90 odstotkov.
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Zato so vlaganja v zdravje Fundacije Gates,
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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UNICEFa in organizacij za pomoč,
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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skupaj z vladami v najrevnejših državah,
08:37
are so good;
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tako pomembna.
08:39
because they are actually
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Dejansko
08:41
helping us to reach
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nam pomagajo doseči
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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velikost prebivalstva, ki jo lahko oskrbujemo.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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S pravim pristopom se lahko ustavimo pri devetih milijardah.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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Preživetje otrok je v modi.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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Le z boljšo stopnjo preživetja otrok
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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lahko ustavimo rast prebivalstva.
08:56
And will it happen?
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Pa se bo zgodilo?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Nisem optimist,
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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niti pesimist.
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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Sem zelo resen "posibilist".
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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To je nova kategorija, brez čustev,
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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le analitično delo s svetom.
09:11
It can be done.
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Izvedljivo je.
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Svet je lahko pravičnejši.
09:17
With green technology
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Z zeleno tehnologijo
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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in vlaganjem v manjšanje revščine
09:21
and global governance,
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ter dobro globalno vlado,
09:23
the world can become like this.
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lahko svet postane takšen.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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Poglejte, kje je stari Zahod.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Tale modra škatla je bila čisto sama.
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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Vodila je svet, živela sama zase.
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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To se ne bo ponovilo.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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Vloga starega Zahoda v novem svetu je
09:39
is to become the foundation
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postati del temeljev
09:41
of the modern world --
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modernega sveta -
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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nič več, nič manj.
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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A to je zelo pomembna vloga.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Bodite dobri in navadite se tega.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Najlepša hvala.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Aplavz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com