TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling mundu populazioaren hazkundeari buruz
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Mundu populazioa 9.000 milioira iritsiko da hurrengo 50 urteetan, eta ez soilik txiroenen bizitza maila hobetuz lortuko dugu hazkundea murriztea. Hau da Hans Roslingek TED@Cannes-en aurkezten duen erantzun paradoxikoa.
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Oraindik gogoratzen dut egun hura,
00:18
when our teacher told us
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eskolan geundela, gure andereñoak
00:21
that the world population had become
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mundu populazioa 3.000 milioitara
00:23
three billion people,
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iritsi berri zela esan zigunean.
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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1960. urtean izan zen.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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Orain mundu populazioa nola aldatu den
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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kontatuko dizuet, urte hartatik aurrera
00:33
and into the future,
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eta etorkizunean barrena,
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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baina ez dut teknologia digitalik erabiliko,
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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beste TEDeko hitzaldietan egin dudan bezala.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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Horren ordez, beste zerbait egingo dut:
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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gaur irakaskuntza teknologia analogiko
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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berri bat plazaratuko dut,
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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IKEAn erosi dudana:
00:51
this box.
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kutxa hau.
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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Kutxa honek 1.000 milioi pertsona ditu barnean.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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Eta gure andereñoak esan zigun
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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mundu industrializatuak, 1960an,
01:00
had one billion people.
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1.000 milioi biztanle zituela.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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Eta garapen bideko munduan, esan zigunez,
01:04
they had two billion people.
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2.000 milioi bizi ziren.
01:06
And they lived away then.
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Eta bi mundu hauek aldenduta bizi ziren.
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Tarte nabarmena zegoen
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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mundu industrializatuko 1.000 milioien artean
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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eta garapen bideko 2.000en artean.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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Mundu industrializatuan
01:17
people were healthy,
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jendea osasuntsua zen,
01:19
educated, rich,
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hezitua, aberatsa,
01:21
and they had small families.
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eta familia txikiak zituzten.
01:23
And their aspiration
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Eta euren helburua
01:25
was to buy a car.
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kotxe bat erostea zen.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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Eta 1960an, suediar guztiek aurrezten zuten
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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hau bezalako Volvo bat erosteko asmoz.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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Hau zen Suediaren maila ekonomikoa.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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Aldiz, honekin kontraste bizian,
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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garapen bideko munduan, oso urruti,
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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familia ertain baten helburua
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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eguneko janaria lortzea zen.
01:46
They were saving
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Eta dirua aurrezten zuten
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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zapata pare bat erosi ahal izateko.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Munduan sekulako arrakala zegoen
01:53
when I grew up.
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ni haurra nintzenean.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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Mendebaldea eta gainerakoak banatzen zituen tarte horrek
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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munduan mentalitate jakin bat sortu du,
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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oraindik ere gure hizkuntzan islatzen dena,
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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"Mendebaldeaz" eta "Garapen
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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bideko munduaz" mintzatzen garenean.
02:07
But the world has changed,
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Baina mundua aldatu egin da,
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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eta garaia da mentalitate hori eguneratu
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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eta hobe ulertzeko. Eta hori bera da
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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erakutsiko dizuedana,
02:17
because since 1960
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zeren 1960tik
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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2010 arte munduan gertatu dena
02:23
is that a staggering
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zera da:
02:25
four billion people
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4.000 milioi biztanle
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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batu zaizkiola mundu populazioari.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Ikus ezazue zenbat.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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Mundu populazioa bikoiztu egin da
02:33
since I went to school.
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ni eskolara joan nintzenetik.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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Eta, noski, Mendebaldean ekonomi hazkundea izan da.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Enpresa askoren agerpenak ekonomia hazi egin du,
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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eta beraz Mendebaldeko populazioa hona mugitu da.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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Eta orain euren helburua ez da auto bat erostea soilik.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Orain oporretan joan nahi dute oso urrutira
02:52
and they want to fly.
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eta hegazkinez bidaiatu nahi dute.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Ondorioz gaur hemen daude.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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Eta garapen bideko herrialde arrakastasuenek ere
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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aurrera egin dute, dakizuenez,
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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eta orain "ekonomia emergente" deitzen diegu.
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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Orain kotxeak erosten dituzte.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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Eta duela hilabete gertatu zen
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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txinatar enpresa batek, Geely-k,
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they acquired the Volvo company,
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Volvo konpania osoa erosi zuela
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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eta azkenik suediarrek ulertu dute
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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zerbait handia gertatu dela munduan.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(barreak)
03:20
So there they are.
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Hor daude beraz.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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Eta tragedia da hemengo 2.000 milioiek,
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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janaria eta zapatak lortu nahi dituztenek,
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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oraindik ere duela 50 urte
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as they were 50 years ago.
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bezain pobreak direla.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Berria dena zera da
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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jendetza kopuru handiena, 3.000 milioi hauek,
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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zeinak "ekonomia emergente" bihurtzen ari diren,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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zeren nahikoa osasuntsu eta ondo hezituak dira,
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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eta jadanik emakumeko 2 edo 3 semealaba dituzte,
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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beste herrialde aberatsek bezala.
03:48
And their aspiration now
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Eta orain euren helburua,
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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nola ez, bizikleta bat erostea da,
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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eta beranduago moto bat izatea nahiko dute.
03:56
But this is the world
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Beraz hau da
03:59
we have today,
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egungo mundua,
04:01
no longer any gap.
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tarterik gabekoa.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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Baina txiroenen eta aberatsenen arteko
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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distantzia inoiz baino zabalagoa da.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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Hala ere etenik gabeko mundua daukagu
04:11
from walking, biking,
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oinez, bizikletaz,
04:13
driving, flying --
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autoz, hegazkinez:
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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maila guztietan dago jendea,
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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eta jende gehiena erdibidean kokatua dago.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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Hau da egungo mundua,
04:23
in 2010.
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2010. urtekoa.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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Eta zer gertatuko da etorkizunean?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Beno, 2050. urtera arte
04:32
into 2050.
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proiektatuko dut.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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Shanghain izan naiz duela gutxi,
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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eta Txinan gertatzen ari denaren berri izan nuen,
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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eta gauza ziurra da harrapatuko gaituztela,
04:42
just as Japan did.
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Japonek egin zuen bezala.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Proiekzio guztien arabera hauen ekonomia
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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urteko %1 eta %3 bitartean haziko da,
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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eta Txina aldiz urteko %8. Eta hemen bukatuko dute.
04:51
They will start flying.
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Hegan egiten hasiko dira.
04:53
And these
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Eta hauek,
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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errenta ertaineko herrialdeek, goraka doazenak,
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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hauen ekonomia ere hazi egingo da.
05:01
And if,
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Eta
05:03
but only if,
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etorkizunean teknologia berde
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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egokian inbertitzen badugu,
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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klima aldaketa saihestu eta energia
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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merke mantendu ahal izateko,
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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orduan herrialde "emergenteak" hona igoko dira.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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Eta auto elektrikoak erosten
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electric cars.
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hasiko dira.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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Hau da hor aurkituko duguna.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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Eta zer gertatuko da txiroenekin,
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What about the poorest two billion here?
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hemengo 2.000 milioiekin?
05:28
Will they move on?
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Aurrerapenik biziko ote dute?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Hau erantzuteko populazio hazkundean fijatu behar gara,
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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zeren herrialdeotan jadanik badituzte 2 edo 3 semealaba emakumeko,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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askok familia-planifikazioa darabilte,
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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eta populazio hazkundea moteltzen ari da.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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Aldiz hemen, txiroenen artean, populazioa hazten ari da.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Beraz 2.000 milioiak 3.000 bihurtuko dira
05:45
increase to three billion,
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hurrengo hamarkadetan,
05:47
and they will thereafter
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eta beranduago
05:49
increase to four billion.
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4.000 milioi izango dira.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Ezerk ezingo du
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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hau geldiarazi,
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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gerra nuklear batek ez bada.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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Zeren hazkunde hau gertatzen ari da jadanik.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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Baina txiroenak
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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probeziatik aterako badira,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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hezkuntza jaso, haurren bizi iraupena hobetu,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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bizikleta bat eta mugikor bat erosi, eta hona iritsi,
06:11
then population growth
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orduan mundu populazio hazkundea
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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2050ean bukatuko litzateke.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Ezin dugu maila honetan jendea
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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janari eta zapata bila izan
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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zeren orduan populazio hazkundeak jarraituko luke.
06:23
And let me show you why
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Eta utz ezadazue hau guztia
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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teknologia digitalaren
06:28
digital technology.
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bidez kontatzen.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Pantaila honetan
06:32
my country bubbles.
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globoak ditut.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Globo bakoitza herrialde bat da. Tamainak populazioa
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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adierazten du, eta koloreek kontinentea.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Horiak Amerika;
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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urdin ilunak Afrika; marroiak Europa;
06:42
green is the Middle East
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berdeak Ekialde Hurbila
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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eta urdin argiak Asia Hegoaldea.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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Hori India da eta hau Txina.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Ardatz honetan semealabak emakumeko:
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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bi haur, lau, sei, zortzi,
06:54
big families, small families.
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familia handiak, familia txikiak.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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1960. urtean gaude.
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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Eta hemen azpian haurren biziraupena daukagu,
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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haurtzaroa bizirik gainditzen dutenen ehunekoa
07:03
up to starting school:
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eskolara hasi arte:
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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%60, %70, %80, %90,
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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eta ia %100, egun herrialde
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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aberatsenetan daukagun moduan.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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Baina begira, hau da 1960ko mundua:
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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1.000 milioi Mendebaldeko herrialdeetan,
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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haurren biziraupen handia, familia txikiak...
07:21
and all the rest,
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eta beste guztiak,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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garapen bidean dauden herrialdeak,
07:25
with very large families
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euren familia handiekin
07:27
and poor child survival.
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eta haurren biziraupen txikia.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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Zer gertatu da? Martxan jarriko dut.
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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Ikusten al duzue, urteak pasa ahala, biziraupena hazi egiten dela?
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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Xaboia, higienea, heziketa,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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txertoak, penizilina eta
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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familia-plangintza jasotzen dute. Familia txikitzen doa.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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Biziraupena %90ra iristen direnean, orduan familiak txikitu egiten dira,
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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eta herrialde arabiar gehienetan erortzen ari da
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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familiak txikiak izan arte.
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Begira, Bangladesh India harrapatzen ari da.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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Mundu "emergenteak"
07:54
joins the Western world
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"Mendebaldearekin" bat egiten du,
07:56
with good child survival
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haurren biziraupena areagotuz,
07:58
and small family size,
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eta familia txikituz,
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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baina oraindik ere 2.000 milioi pobre daude.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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Ikusten al dituzue txiroenak,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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hemen nituen kutxak?
08:07
They are still up here.
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Oraindik ere hor goian daude:
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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haurren biziraupena txikia da,
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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%70 eta %80 bitartekoa soilik,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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hau da, sei jaiotako sei semealabatik
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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haurtzaroa lauk gaindituko dute
08:17
to the next generation.
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hurrengo belaunaldira iritsiz.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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Eta belaundaldi batean populazioa bikoiztu egingo da.
08:22
So the only way
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Beraz, populazioaren
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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hazkundea gelditzeko modu bakarra
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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haurren biziraupena %90 arte
08:29
to 90 percent.
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hobetzea da.
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Horregatik dira Gates Fundazioaren, UNICEF-en eta
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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beste erakunde batzuen inbertsioak,
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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herrialde txiroenen gobernuekin batera,
08:37
are so good;
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hain onuragarriak;
08:39
because they are actually
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zeren mundu populazio kopuru
08:41
helping us to reach
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iraunkor bat lortzen
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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laguntzen digute.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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9.000 milioitan gera gaitezke gauzak ondo egin ezkero.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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Haurren biziraupena da gakoa.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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Haurren biziraupena igoz
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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populazioaren hazkundea geratuko dugu.
08:56
And will it happen?
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Eta hau gertatuko ote da?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Ni ez naiz optimista,
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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ezta pesimista ere.
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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Ni oso "posibilista" serio bat naiz.
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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Kategoria berri bat da, mundua
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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analitikoki aztertzen laguntzen diguna.
09:11
It can be done.
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Egin daiteke!
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Mundua askoz bidezkoagoa izan daiteke.
09:17
With green technology
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Teknologia berdearekin
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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eta pobrezia gutxitzeko inbertsioekin,
09:21
and global governance,
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eta erakunde globalekin
09:23
the world can become like this.
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mundua honelakoa bihur daiteke.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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Eta begira Mendebalde zaharraren kokapena.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Gogoratzen zarete kutxa urdin hau bakarrik
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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zegoenean, munduaren buruan?
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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Hori ez da berriro gertatuko.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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Etorkizunean Mendebalde zaharra
09:39
is to become the foundation
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mundu modernoaren
09:41
of the modern world --
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zimendua izango da, alajaina.
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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Oso zeregin
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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garrantzitsua da.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Egizazue ondo eta ohi zaitezte horretara.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Mila esker guztioi.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Txaloak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com