TED@Cannes
Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box
Hans Rosling fala do crecemento mundial da poboación
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A poboación mundial vai crecer ata os 9 mil millóns de persoas nos próximos 50 anos e só aumentando os niveis de vida dos máis pobres poderemos soportar este crecemento poboacional. Esta é a resposta paradóxica que Hans Rosling desvelou no TED@Cannes usando unha nova e colorida "tecnoloxía" para mostrar os datos (Xa o verás)
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
I still remember the day in school
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Aínda recordo un día na escola
00:18
when our teacher told us
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cando o mestre dixo
00:21
that the world population had become
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que a poboación mundial chegara
00:23
three billion people,
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ós 3 mil millóns de persoas,
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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Iso foi en 1960.
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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Agora vou falar sobre
00:31
how world population has changed from that year
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cómo a poboación mundial cambiou dende aquel ano
00:33
and into the future,
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e cara o futuro
00:35
but I will not use digital technology,
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pero non vou utilizar tecnoloxía dixital
00:38
as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.
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como xa fixera nas miñas 5 primeiras TEDTalks.
00:41
Instead, I have progressed,
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En lugar diso, progresei,
00:44
and I am, today, launching
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e hoxe, utilizarei
00:46
a brand new analog teaching technology
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un novo xeito de ensinanza analóxica
00:49
that I picked up from IKEA:
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que collín de IKEA:
00:51
this box.
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esta caixa
00:53
This box contains one billion people.
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Esta caixa contén mil millóns de persoas.
00:55
And our teacher told us
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E o noso mestre díxonos
00:57
that the industrialized world, 1960,
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que o mundo industrializado en 1960
01:00
had one billion people.
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tiña mil millóns de habitantes.
01:02
In the developing world, she said,
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No mundo en vías de desenvolvemento, dixo,
01:04
they had two billion people.
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había 2 mil millóns de persoas
01:06
And they lived away then.
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E daquela vivían lonxe
01:08
There was a big gap between
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Había un grande espacio entre
01:10
the one billion in the industrialized world
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os mil millóns do mundo industrializado
01:12
and the two billion in the developing world.
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e os 2 mil millóns do mundo en vías de desenvolvemento.
01:15
In the industrialized world,
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No mundo industrializado,
01:17
people were healthy,
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a xente estaba sá
01:19
educated, rich,
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formada, rica,
01:21
and they had small families.
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e tiñan pequenas familias.
01:23
And their aspiration
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E o seu obxetivo
01:25
was to buy a car.
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era mercar un coche.
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes were saving
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En 1960, todos os suecos aforraban
01:30
to try to buy a Volvo like this.
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para tentar mercar un Volvo coma este.
01:33
This was the economic level at which Sweden was.
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Ese era o nivel económico que había en Suecia.
01:36
But in contrast to this,
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Pero en contraste con isto,
01:38
in the developing world, far away,
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no mundo en vías de desenvolvemento, moi lonxe,
01:40
the aspiration of the average family there
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o obxetivo dunha familia media
01:43
was to have food for the day.
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era ter comida para o día.
01:46
They were saving
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Aforraban
01:48
to be able to buy a pair of shoes.
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para poder mercar un par de zapatos.
01:51
There was an enormous gap in the world
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Había unha enorme diferenza no mundo
01:53
when I grew up.
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cando eu era novo.
01:55
And this gap between the West and the rest
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Esta distancia entre Occidente e o resto
01:58
has created a mindset of the world,
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creou unha forma de pensar no mundo
02:01
which we still use linguistically
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que aínda utilizamos
02:03
when we talk about "the West"
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cando falamos do "Occidente"
02:05
and "the Developing World."
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e do "mundo en vías de desenvolvemento".
02:07
But the world has changed,
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Pero o mundo cambiou,
02:09
and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset
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e temos que cambiar esa mentalidade,
02:12
and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.
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esa división do mundo e comprendela.
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show you,
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E iso é o que lles vou mostrar,
02:17
because since 1960
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porque dende 1960
02:20
what has happened in the world up to 2010
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o que vén pasando no mundo ata o 2010
02:23
is that a staggering
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é asombroso.
02:25
four billion people
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A poboación mundial
02:27
have been added to the world population.
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aumentou en catro mil millóns de persoas.
02:29
Just look how many.
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Mirade cantas son.
02:31
The world population has doubled
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A poboación mundial duplicouse
02:33
since I went to school.
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dende que eu ía á escola.
02:37
And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.
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E dende logo, houbo un crecemento economico no Occidente.
02:40
A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,
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Moitas empresas axudaron a que a economía medrara,
02:43
so the Western population moved over to here.
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así que a poboación occidental moveuse ata aquí.
02:46
And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.
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E agora a súa aspiración non é mercar un coche.
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination
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Agora queren pasar as vacacións nun lugar remoto
02:52
and they want to fly.
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e queren voar.
02:54
So this is where they are today.
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Así que aqui é onde estamos hoxe.
02:56
And the most successful of the developing countries,
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E os máis exitosos dos países en vías de desenvolvemento,
02:59
they have moved on, you know,
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tamén se moveron
03:01
and they have become emerging economies, we call them.
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e convertíronse en economías emexentes, que é como as chamamos.
03:04
They are now buying cars.
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Agora eles están mercando coches.
03:06
And what happened a month ago
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E o que pasou hai un mes
03:08
was that the Chinese company, Geely,
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foi que unha compañía chinesa, "Geely",
03:10
they acquired the Volvo company,
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mercou a compañía "Volvo"
03:13
and then finally the Swedes understood that
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e finalmente os suecos comprenderon
03:15
something big had happened in the world.
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que algo grande estaba a pasar no mundo.
03:17
(Laughter)
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(Risas)
03:20
So there they are.
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Así que aquí están.
03:22
And the tragedy is that the two billion over here
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E a traxedia é que os 2 mil millóns dalí,
03:25
that is struggling for food and shoes,
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que loitaban por comida e zapatos...
03:28
they are still almost as poor
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seguen case tan pobres
03:30
as they were 50 years ago.
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como hai 50 anos.
03:32
The new thing is that
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Pero a novidade é
03:34
we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,
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que temos esta morea, estes 3 mil millóns,
03:37
which are also becoming emerging economies,
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que están a transformarse en economías emerxentes,
03:40
because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,
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porque agora teñen boa saúde, están relativamente ben educados,
03:43
and they already also have two to three children
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e teñen entre 2 e 3 nenos
03:45
per woman, as those [richer also] have.
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por muller, igual cós ricos.
03:48
And their aspiration now
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E o seu obxetivo agora
03:50
is, of course, to buy a bicycle,
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é, dende logo, mercar unha bicicleta,
03:53
and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.
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e despois querrán ter tamén unha moto.
03:56
But this is the world
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Pero este é o mundo
03:59
we have today,
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que temos hoxe en día,
04:01
no longer any gap.
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xa non hai distancia.
04:03
But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,
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Pero a distancia entre os pobres, os moi pobres,
04:06
to the very richest over here is wider than ever.
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e os moi ricos, é maior ca nunca.
04:09
But there is a continuous world
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Pero hai un mundo continuo
04:11
from walking, biking,
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que camiña, vai en bicicleta,
04:13
driving, flying --
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conduce e voa --
04:15
there are people on all levels,
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hai xente en todos os niveis
04:17
and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.
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e a maioría adoita a estar no medio.
04:21
This is the new world we have today
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Este é o mundo que temos hoxe
04:23
in 2010.
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en 2010.
04:26
And what will happen in the future?
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¿E qué vai pasar no futuro?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project
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Ben, imos facer unha proxección
04:32
into 2050.
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até o 2050.
04:34
I was in Shanghai recently,
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Estiven en Shanghai hai pouco
04:37
and I listened to what's happening in China,
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e escoitei o que está a pasar na China,
04:39
and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,
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e é bastante probable que nos alcancen,
04:42
just as Japan did.
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como xa fixo Xapón.
04:44
All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with
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Todas as proxeccións din que estes mil millóns só ha medrar
04:46
one to two or three percent.
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entre un 1 e un 3%.
04:48
[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.
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Pero este segundo medra ata un 7%, 8%, e chegarán aquí.
04:51
They will start flying.
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Comezarán a voar.
04:53
And these
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E estes,
04:55
lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,
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pequenos e medianos países, países emerxentes,
04:58
they will also forge forwards economically.
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tamén han medrar economicamente.
05:01
And if,
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Pero só,
05:03
but only if,
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só se
05:05
we invest in the right green technology --
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investimos na tecnoloxía verde axeitada...
05:08
so that we can avoid severe climate change,
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e así poidamos evitar un cambio climático severo,
05:10
and energy can still be relatively cheap --
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e a enerxía se mantería relativamente barata.
05:13
then they will move all the way up here.
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Só entón, chegarán a este lugar.
05:16
And they will start to buy
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E comezarán a mercar
05:18
electric cars.
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coches eléctricos.
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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Iso é o que habemos encontrar aquí.
05:23
So what about the poorest two billion?
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¿E qué pasou cos 2 mil millóns máis pobres?
05:25
What about the poorest two billion here?
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¿Qué pasa cos 2 mil millóns máis pobres?
05:28
Will they move on?
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¿Van avanzar?
05:30
Well, here population [growth] comes in
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Ben, ... aquí o crecemento ralentiza
05:32
because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,
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porque nas economías emerxentes xa hai entre 2 e 3 nenos por muller,
05:35
family planning is widely used,
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a planificación familiar comeza a terse en conta
05:37
and population growth is coming to an end.
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e o crecemento poboacional está ralentizándose.
05:39
Here [among the poorest], population is growing.
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A poboación máis pobre está medrando.
05:42
So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,
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Así que estes dous mil millóns, nas próximas décadas,
05:45
increase to three billion,
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van aumentar ata 3 mil millóns,
05:47
and they will thereafter
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e despois
05:49
increase to four billion.
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aumentarán ata 4 mil millóns.
05:51
There is nothing --
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Non hai nada,
05:53
but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --
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agás unha guerra nuclear de grandes proporcións nunca vista,
05:56
that can stop this [growth] from happening.
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que poida deter este crecemento.
05:59
Because we already have this [growth] in process.
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Porque o crecemento aínda está en proceso.
06:02
But if, and only if,
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Pero só, e só
06:04
[the poorest] get out of poverty,
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se os pobres saen da probreza,
06:06
they get education, they get improved child survival,
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van á escola e melloran o indice de mortandade infantil,
06:08
they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,
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entón, poderán mercar unha bicicleta, un teléfono móbil e pasarán a estar aquí
06:11
then population growth
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e entón este crecemento da poboación
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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parará en 2050.
06:16
We cannot have people on this level
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Non podemos ter xente neste nivel
06:18
looking for food and shoes
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buscando comida e zapatos
06:20
because then we get continued population growth.
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porque así a poboación continuará crecendo.
06:23
And let me show you why
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Déixenme ensinarlles por qué
06:25
by converting back to the old-time
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utilizando esta antiga
06:28
digital technology.
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tecnoloxía dixital.
06:30
Here I have on the screen
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Aquí están na pantalla
06:32
my country bubbles.
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os meus países-burbulla.
06:34
Every bubble is a country. The size is population.
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Cada burbulla é un país. O tamaño é a poboación.
06:36
The colors show the continent.
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As cores mostran os continentes.
06:38
The yellow on there is the Americas;
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Os amarelos son de América,
06:40
dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;
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azul escuro é Africa, marrón é Europa,
06:42
green is the Middle East
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verde é Oriente Medio
06:45
and this light blue is South Asia.
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e o azul celeste é a zona de Asia do sur.
06:47
That's India and this is China. Size is population.
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Esta é India e esta é China. O tamaño indica a poboación.
06:49
Here I have children per woman:
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Aquí temos os nenos por cada muller:
06:52
two children, four children, six children, eight children --
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dous nenos, catro nenos, seis nenos, oito nenos --
06:54
big families, small families.
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familias grandes, familias pequenas.
06:57
The year is 1960.
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É o ano 1960
06:59
And down here, child survival,
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E aquí abaixo, os nenos que sobreviven,
07:01
the percentage of children surviving childhood
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a porcentaxe de nenos que sobreviven
07:03
up to starting school:
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ata alcanzar a escola:
07:05
60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,
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60 por cento, 70 por cento, 80 por cento, 90...
07:08
and almost 100 percent, as we have today
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e case 100 porcento, como temos hoxe en día
07:10
in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.
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nos paises máis ricos e sáns.
07:12
But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:
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Pero mirade, este é o mundo que o meu profesor me ensinou en 1960:
07:15
one billion Western world here --
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aquí, mil millóns de persoas occidentais --
07:18
high child-survival, small families --
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alta supervivencia dos cativos, familias pequenas --
07:21
and all the rest,
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e o resto,
07:23
the rainbow of developing countries,
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o arco da vella dos países en desenvolvemento,
07:25
with very large families
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con grandes familias
07:27
and poor child survival.
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e alta taxa de mortandade infantil.
07:29
What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.
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¿E qué ocorreu? Voulle dar a comezar... imos aló!
07:32
Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?
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¿Védelo?, co paso dos anos comeza a aumentar a porcentaxe de nenos que sobreviven
07:35
They get soap, hygiene, education,
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Teñen xabón, hixiene, educación,
07:37
vaccination, penicillin
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vacinas, penicilina,
07:39
and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.
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e finalmente planificación familiar. O tamaño da familia está decrecendo.
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,
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Cando chegan ó 90% de taxa de supervivencia infantil, as familias fanse máis pequenas
07:45
and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East
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e a gran maioría dos países árabes de Oriente Medio
07:47
is falling down there [to small families].
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están baixando ata aquí, ata as familias pequenas.
07:49
Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.
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Mirade, Bangladesh está collendo á India.
07:51
The whole emerging world
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Todos os países emerxentes
07:54
joins the Western world
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alcanzan ó mundo occidental.
07:56
with good child survival
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con alta taxa de supervivencia infantil
07:58
and small family size,
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e familias máis pequenas,
08:00
but we still have the poorest billion.
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pero aínda temos os 2 mil millóns máis pobres.
08:02
Can you see the poorest billion,
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¿Vedes os dous mil millóns máis pobres,
08:04
those [two] boxes I had over here?
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nestas caixas que teño aquí?
08:07
They are still up here.
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Aínda están aquí.
08:09
And they still have a child survival
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E aínda teñen unha porcentaxe de nenos que sobreviven
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent,
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de só o 70 ou 80 por cento,
08:13
meaning that if you have six children born,
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o que quere dicir que se teñen 6 nenos,
08:15
there will be at least four who survive
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haberá 4 que polo menos sobrevivan
08:17
to the next generation.
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e chegen a formar parte da próxima xeración.
08:19
And the population will double in one generation.
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E a población vaise duplicar nunha soa xeración.
08:22
So the only way
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Así que o único xeito
08:24
of really getting world population [growth] to stop
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para realmente parar o crecemento poboacional mundial
08:27
is to continue to improve child survival
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é continuar mellorando a porcentaxe de nenos que sobreviven
08:29
to 90 percent.
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atá o 90 porcento
08:31
That's why investments by Gates Foundation,
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Esa é a razón pola que a Fundación Gates,
08:33
UNICEF and aid organizations,
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UNICEF e outras organizacións,
08:35
together with national government in the poorest countries,
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xunto cos gobernos dos países máis pobres,
08:37
are so good;
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son tan bos;
08:39
because they are actually
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porque de feito están
08:41
helping us to reach
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a axudarnos a conseguir
08:43
a sustainable population size of the world.
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un tamaño sostible de poboación mundial.
08:45
We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.
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Podemos parar nos 9 mil millóns se facemos as cousas ben.
08:48
Child survival is the new green.
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A supervivencia infantil é a nova meta.
08:51
It's only by child survival
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Só mediante a supervivencia infantil
08:53
that we will stop population growth.
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poderemos parar o crecemento da poboación.
08:56
And will it happen?
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¿E vai ser así?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist,
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Ben, eu non son un optimista,
09:01
neither am I a pessimist.
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tampouco un pesimista.
09:03
I'm a very serious "possibilist."
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Son un serio "posibilista".
09:06
It's a new category where we take emotion apart,
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É unha nova categoría na que deixamos as emocións ó lado
09:09
and we just work analytically with the world.
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e só traballamos analiticamente co mundo
09:11
It can be done.
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Pódese facer.
09:14
We can have a much more just world.
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Podemos ter un mundo máis xusto.
09:17
With green technology
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Co tecnoloxía verde
09:19
and with investments to alleviate poverty,
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e con investimentos para aliviar a pobreza,
09:21
and global governance,
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e o goberno global,
09:23
the world can become like this.
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o mundo pode chegar a ser coma este.
09:25
And look at the position of the old West.
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E mirade a posición do antigo occidente.
09:28
Remember when this blue box was all alone,
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Recordade que esta caixa azul estaba soa
09:31
leading the world, living its own life.
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liderando o mundo, vivindo a súa propia vida.
09:34
This will not happen [again].
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Non vai volver a pasar.
09:36
The role of the old West in the new world
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O lugar do antigo occidente no novo mundo
09:39
is to become the foundation
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é ser os cimentos
09:41
of the modern world --
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do novo mundo
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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nada máis, nada menos.
09:45
But it's a very important role.
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Pero é un papel moi importante.
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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Hai que facelo ben e acostumarse a iso.
09:49
Thank you very much.
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Moitas grazas.
09:51
(Applause)
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(Aplausos)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com