TED2003
Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor for the web's future
Jeff Bezos o sljedećoj web-inovaciji
Filmed:
Readability: 3
1,547,891 views
Dot-com boom i eksplozija često se uspoređuju sa Zlatnom groznicom. No, osnivač Amazon.com-a Jeff Bezos tvrdi da se po njemu nalaze bliže početku električne industrije.
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.
0
1000
3000
Kada razmislite o elastičnosti i tehnologiji to je zapravo puno lakše.
00:29
You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,
1
4000
3000
Danas ćete vidjeti neke druge govornike, to znam,
00:32
who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,
2
7000
3000
koji će govoriti o lomljenju kostiju,
00:35
and, of course, with technology it never is.
3
10000
2000
i, naravno, s tehnologijom to nikada nije slučaj.
00:37
So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.
4
12000
4000
Tako da je vrlo jednostavno, relativno govoreći, biti elastičan.
00:41
I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,
5
16000
2000
Ako pogledamo na ono što se dogodilo na Internetu --
00:43
with such an incredible last half a dozen years,
6
18000
4000
s takvim nevjerojatnim razvojem u posljednjih šest godina
00:47
that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.
7
22000
3000
da je teško čak i osmisliti pravu analogiju za to.
00:50
A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things
8
25000
4000
Puno toga kako odlučujemo, kako trebamo reagirati na stvari
00:54
and what we're supposed to expect about the future
9
29000
2000
i ono što bismo trebali očekivati o budućnosti
00:56
depends on how we bucket things
10
31000
2000
ovisi o tome kako promatramo stvari
00:58
and how we categorize them.
11
33000
1000
i kako ih kategoriziramo.
00:59
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust
12
34000
4000
I tako mislim da je najbliža analogija za boom-eksploziju
01:03
that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.
13
38000
4000
da je ono što smo upravo prošli s Internetom, zlatna groznica.
01:07
It's easy to think of this analogy as very different
14
42000
3000
Jednostavno je misliti na ovu analogiju kao vrlo različitu
01:10
from some of the other things you might pick.
15
45000
2000
od nekih drugih stvari koje ste mogli pokupiti.
01:12
For one thing, both were very real.
16
47000
2000
Međutim, obje su vrlo stvarne.
01:14
In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million
17
49000
4000
1849. u tom Gold Rush, su uzeli preko 700 milijuna dolara
01:18
worth of gold out of California. It was very real.
18
53000
2000
vrijednog zlata iz Kalifornije. To je bilo vrlo stvarno.
01:20
The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to
19
55000
4000
Internet je također bio jako realan. Ovo je pravi način za ljude da
01:24
communicate with each other. It's a big deal.
20
59000
3000
komuniciraju jedni s drugima. To je velika stvar.
01:27
Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.
21
62000
4000
Ogroman bum. Ogroman bum. Ogromna eksplozija. Ogromna eksplozija.
01:31
You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.
22
66000
3000
Možete ići dalje, a obje su stvari jako naelektrizirane.
01:34
I don't have to remind you of all the hype
23
69000
3000
Ne moram vas podsjećati na svu strku
01:37
that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
24
72000
3000
koja se događala s Internetom - poput GetRich.com.
01:40
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."
25
75000
3000
Istu stvar ste imali sa Zlatnom groznicom. "Zlato. Zlato. Zlato."
01:43
Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.
26
78000
4000
68 bogatih ljudi na parobrodu Portland. Hrpe žutog metala.
01:47
Some have 5,000. Many have more.
27
82000
3000
Neki imaju pet tisuća. Mnogi imaju više.
01:50
A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.
28
85000
3000
Nekoliko je donijelo po 100.000 dolara.
01:54
People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.
29
89000
3000
Ljudi će se jako uzbuditi kada će čitati te članke.
01:57
"The Eldorado of the United States of America:
30
92000
3000
Eldorado iz Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.
02:00
the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."
31
95000
4000
Otkriće neiscrpnih rudnika zlata u Kaliforniji.
02:06
And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.
32
101000
4000
Paralele između Zlatne groznice i Internet groznice i dalje su vrlo snažne.
02:10
So many people left what they were doing.
33
105000
3000
Dakle, mnogo ljudi je ostavilo ono što su radili.
02:13
And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
34
108000
3000
A ono što će se dogoditi -- a Zlatna groznica je trajala godinama.
02:16
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,
35
111000
4000
Kada su ljudi na istočnoj obali 1849. prvi put počeli dobivati vijesti,
02:20
they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."
36
115000
2000
mislili su: "Ah, to nije stvarno."
02:22
But they keep hearing about people getting rich,
37
117000
3000
Ali sve veći broj ljudi je postajao bogat,
02:25
and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.
38
120000
3000
a zatim su u 1850. i dalje slušali o tome. I dalje su mislili kako to ne može biti stvarno.
02:28
By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth
39
123000
5000
Do 1852. oni su razmišljali, "Jesam li ja najgluplji čovjek na Zemlji
02:33
by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.
40
128000
4000
ako ne žurim u Kaliforniju?" I polako su shvaćali da jesu.
02:37
These are community affairs, by the way.
41
132000
2000
To su poslovi zajednice, usput.
02:39
Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams
42
134000
3000
Lokalne zajednice na istočnoj obali bi se okupile i formirale cijele timove
02:42
of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,
43
137000
3000
od 10 ili 20 ljudi koji bi kenuli preko Sjedinjenih Država,
02:45
and they would form companies.
44
140000
2000
i oni bi formirali poduzeća.
02:47
These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,
45
142000
3000
To obično nisu bili osamljeni napori. No, bez obzira,
02:50
if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,
46
145000
3000
ako ste bili odvjetnik ili bankar, ljudi bi vam rekli što su radili,
02:53
no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
47
148000
3000
bez obzira na vještine koje su imali kao tragači zlata.
02:57
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,
48
152000
3000
Ovaj tip na lijevoj strani, dr. Richard Beverley Cole,
03:00
he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.
49
155000
3000
živio je u Philadelphiji, da bi uzeo put preko Paname.
03:03
They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,
50
158000
3000
Uzeli bi brod dolje za Panamu, preko prevlake,
03:06
and then take another ship north.
51
161000
2000
i onda bi uzeli drugi brod sjeverno.
03:08
This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.
52
163000
4000
Ovaj tip, dr. Toland, otišao je pokrivenim kolima za Kaliforniju.
03:13
This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.
53
168000
4000
To ima svoje paralele, također. Liječnici su ostavljali svoje prakse.
03:17
These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,
54
172000
2000
Oba su bila vrlo uspješna -- liječnik u jednom slučaju;
03:19
a surgeon in the other.
55
174000
1000
kirurg u drugom.
03:20
Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
56
175000
4000
Ista stvar se dogodila na Internetu. Dobijete DrKoop.com.
03:24
(Laughter)
57
179000
1000
(Smijeh)
03:25
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.
58
180000
3000
Tijekom Zlatne groznice, ljudi su doslovno skakali u brodove.
03:28
The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak
59
183000
7000
Luka San Francisco je bila začepljena sa 600 brodova na svom vrhuncu
03:35
because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon
60
190000
2000
jer bi brodovi došli do tamo a posada bi ih napustila
03:37
to go search for gold.
61
192000
2000
kako bi išli tražiti zlato.
03:39
So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.
62
194000
4000
Tako je doslovno bilo 600 kapetana i 600 brodova.
03:43
They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.
63
198000
3000
Oni su pretvorili brodove u hotele, jer s njima nisu nigdje mogli otploviti.
03:46
You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.
64
201000
5000
Imali ste dotcom groznicu. I imali ste Zlatnu groznicu.
03:51
And you saw some of the excesses
65
206000
2000
A vidjeli ste i neke od ekscesa
03:53
that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.
66
208000
4000
koje je dotcom groznica stvorila i ista stvar se dogodila.
03:57
The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.
67
212000
4000
Utvrda u San Franciscu u to vrijeme imala je oko 1.300 vojnika.
04:01
Half of them deserted to go look for gold.
68
216000
4000
Polovica od njih napustila su je i otišla tražiti zlato.
04:05
And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half
69
220000
3000
A oni nisu pustili drugoj polovici da ide tražiti prvu polovicu
04:08
because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
70
223000
2000
jer su se bojali da se ovi ne bi vratili.
04:10
(Laughter)
71
225000
2000
(Smijeh)
04:12
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:
72
227000
3000
I jedan od vojnika pisao je kući, a ovo je rečenica koju je napisao:
04:15
"The struggle between right and six dollars a month
73
230000
4000
"Borba između dobra i 6 dolara mjesečno,
04:19
and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."
74
234000
5000
i kriva i 75 dolara na dan je prilično teška."
04:27
They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.
75
242000
4000
Imali su jako loše stope izgaranja u Zlatnoj groznici. Jako loše stope.
04:31
This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.
76
246000
4000
Ovo je zapravo od Klondike Zlatne groznice. Ovo je White Pass Trail.
04:35
They loaded up their mules and their horses.
77
250000
4000
Natrpali su svoje mazge i konje.
04:39
And they didn't plan right.
78
254000
4000
I nisu dobro planirali.
04:43
And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,
79
258000
3000
Jer nisu znali koliko daleko će ići,
04:46
and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.
80
261000
4000
a zatrpali su konje s desecima kilograma stvari.
04:50
In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died
81
265000
4000
U stvari, bilo je toliko loše da je većina konja umrla
04:54
before they could get where they were going.
82
269000
2000
prije nego što bi došli, tamo gdje su krenuli.
04:56
It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
83
271000
2000
On je preimenovan u "Put mrtvih konja".
04:58
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:
84
273000
4000
A kanadski ministar unutarnjih poslova je napisao ovo u to vrijeme:
05:02
"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,
85
277000
3000
"Tisuće mrtvih konja leže po putu,
05:05
sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,
86
280000
2000
ponekad u gomilama ispod stijene,
05:07
with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,
87
282000
4000
sa sedlima i teretom na mjestu gdje su pali odozgo,
05:11
sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes
88
286000
3000
ponekad su zapetljane mase, punile blatne rupe
05:14
and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,
89
289000
3000
i stvarale jedini oslonac za naše siromašno opremljene životinje u kasu,
05:17
often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,
90
292000
4000
često, sa žaljenjem kažem, iscrpljeni, ali još uvijek živ,
05:21
a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches
91
296000
3000
zapravo nismo bili svjesni, sve dok se bijedni nesretnici
05:24
turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.
92
299000
3000
nisu počeli pojavljivati ispod naših konja.
05:27
The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere
93
302000
2000
Ispod nas posvuda gomile životinja bez očiju
05:29
account for the myriads of ravens along the road.
94
304000
3000
gozba za nebrojne gavrane uz cestu.
05:32
The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,
95
307000
2000
Nehumanost kojoj je taj put svjedočio,
05:34
the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,
96
309000
3000
tuga i patnja koju su proživjeli mnogi
05:37
cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
97
312000
4000
ne može se zamisliti. Svakako se ne može opisati."
05:42
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,
98
317000
5000
I znate, bez mirisa koji bi pratio to,
05:47
we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.
99
322000
5000
imali smo istu stvar s Internetom: jako loše računice sagorijevanja.
05:52
I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.
100
327000
3000
Ju ću pustiti samo jednu od njih a vi ćete je zapamtiti.
05:55
This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
101
330000
4000
Ovo je promotivni spot koji je puštan tijekom Super Bowl-a 2000. godine.
05:59
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.
102
334000
4000
(Video): Nevjesta #1: Rekli ste da imate veliki izbor pozivnica. Činovnik: Ali imamo.
06:03
Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?
103
338000
3000
Nevjesta #2; Ali zašto onda ona ima moju pozivnicu?
06:06
Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.
104
341000
5000
Najavljivač: Ono što bi za neke bila mala stvar... Nevjesta #3: Ti si moj, mali čovječe.
06:11
Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?
105
346000
4000
Najavljivač: Mogla bi biti velika stvar za vas. Muž #1: Je li to tvoja žena?
06:15
Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.
106
350000
5000
Muž #2: Ne slijedećih 15 minuta. Najavljivač: Uostalom, to je vaš poseban dan.
06:23
OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
107
358000
3000
OurBeginning.com. Život je događaj, objavite to svijetu.
06:26
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
108
361000
4000
Jeff Bazos: Jako je teško shvatiti na što se odnosi ovaj spot.
06:30
(Laughter)
109
365000
2000
(Smijeh)
06:33
But they spent three and a half million dollars
110
368000
2000
Ali oni su potrošili tri i pol milijuna dolara
06:35
in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,
111
370000
3000
kako bi prikazali taj spot na Super Bowl-u 2000.
06:38
even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.
112
373000
3000
Iako, su u to vrijeme, oni imali samo milijun dolara godišnjeg prihoda.
06:44
Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,
113
379000
4000
Ovo je mjesto gdje se naša analogija sa Zlatnom groznicom počinje razilaziti,
06:48
and I think rather severely.
114
383000
2000
i ja mislim prilično snažno.
06:50
And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.
115
385000
4000
A to je, u zlatnoj groznici, kada je gotovo, onda je gotovo.
06:54
Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson
116
389000
3000
Tu je taj dečko: "Postoji puno ljudi u Dawsonu
06:57
at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.
117
392000
2000
koji se u današnje vrijeme osjećaju žudno razočaranim.
06:59
They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,
118
394000
5000
Prošli su tisuće kilometara opasnog puta, riskirajući život, zdravlje i imovinu,
07:04
spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform
119
399000
3000
uložili mjesece najnapornijeg rada koje čovjek može izdržati
07:07
and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch
120
402000
3000
i s očekivanjima koja su podignuta na najvišu razinu
07:10
have reached the coveted goal only to discover
121
405000
2000
dosegnuli su željeni cilj da bi otkrili
07:12
the fact that there is nothing here for them."
122
407000
4000
činjenicu da tamo nema ničega za njih."
07:16
And that was, of course, the very common story.
123
411000
3000
I to je, naravno, uobičajena priča.
07:19
Because when you take out that last piece of gold --
124
414000
2000
Jer kada uzmete posljednji komad zlata --
07:21
and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --
125
416000
5000
i oni su to napravili nevjerojatno brzo. Mislim, ako pogledate na Zlatnu groznicu 1849. --
07:26
the entire American river region, within two years --
126
421000
3000
cijela američka riječna regija, unutar dvije godine --
07:29
every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies
127
424000
4000
svaki kamen je preokrenut. I nakon toga, samo su velike kompanije
07:33
who used more sophisticated mining technologies
128
428000
2000
koje koriste sofisticirane tehnologije kopanja
07:35
started to take gold out of there.
129
430000
3000
započele su s vađenjem zlata tamo.
07:38
So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic
130
433000
6000
Zato postoji puno bolja analogija koja vam omogućava da budete nevjerojatno optimistični
07:44
and that analogy is the electric industry.
131
439000
5000
a ta analogija je električne industrija.
07:49
And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.
132
444000
4000
I ima jako puno sličnosti između Interneta i električne industrije.
07:53
With the electric industry you actually have to --
133
448000
3000
S električnom industrijom u stvari morate --
07:56
one of them is that they're both sort of thin,
134
451000
2000
jedna od njih je da su obje na neki način mršave,
07:58
horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.
135
453000
3000
horizontalne, omogućavajući slojeve koji idu preko puno različitih industrija.
08:01
It's not a specific thing.
136
456000
3000
To nije specifična stvar.
08:05
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.
137
460000
5000
Ali električna struja je također jako, jako široka, tako da ćete je morati na neki način suziti.
08:10
You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.
138
465000
4000
Znate, može se koristiti kao nevjerojatno sredstvo za prenošenje snage.
08:14
It's an incredible means of coordinating,
139
469000
2000
To je nevjerojatno sredstvo koordiniranja,
08:16
in a very fine-grained way, information flows.
140
471000
2000
na jako sitno-zrnat način, informacije teku.
08:18
There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.
141
473000
3000
Postoji gomila stvari koje su jako interesantne o električnoj struji.
08:21
And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on
142
476000
5000
A dio električne revolucije na koji se ja želim usmjeriti
08:26
is sort of the golden age of appliances.
143
481000
3000
jest zlatno doba uređaja.
08:29
The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.
144
484000
5000
Najmoćnija aplikacija koja je pripremila svijet za uređaje bila je žarulja.
08:34
So the light bulb is what wired the world.
145
489000
2000
Dakle žarulja je bila ta koja je spojila svijet.
08:36
And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.
146
491000
4000
A oni nisu razmišljali o uređajima dok su povezivali svijet.
08:40
They were really thinking about --
147
495000
2000
Oni su u stvari mislili o --
08:42
they weren't putting electricity into the home;
148
497000
2000
oni nisu stavili električnu struju u domove.
08:44
they were putting lighting into the home.
149
499000
3000
Oni su stavili osvjetljenje u domove.
08:47
And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
150
502000
4000
Ali stvarno -- to je dovelo do struje. Trebalo je puno vremena.
08:51
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.
151
506000
4000
To je bilo ogromno -- kao što biste i očekivali -- veliki kapital se stvorio.
08:55
All the streets had to be torn up.
152
510000
3000
Sve su ulice morale biti razrovane.
08:58
This is work going on down in lower Manhattan
153
513000
4000
Ovo su poslovi koji su se odvijali u donjem Manhattanu
09:02
where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.
154
517000
4000
gdje su izgradili prve električne trafo stanice.
09:06
And they're tearing up all the streets.
155
521000
2000
A oni su razrovali sve ulice.
09:08
The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,
156
523000
3000
Poduzeće Edison Electric Company, koje je postalo Edison General Electric
09:11
which became General Electric,
157
526000
2000
koje je onda postalo General Electric,
09:13
paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.
158
528000
5000
platilo je za svo to kopanje po ulicama. To je bilo nevjerojatno skupo.
09:19
But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.
159
534000
7000
Ali to nije -- to nije dio koji je najsličniji Webu.
09:26
Because, remember, the Web got to stand
160
541000
2000
Jer je, zapamtite, Web morao stajati
09:28
on top of all this heavy infrastructure
161
543000
2000
na toj cijeloj, teškoj infrastrukturi
09:30
that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.
162
545000
3000
koja je bila postavljena zbog mreže međunarodne telefonije.
09:33
So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --
163
548000
3000
Dakle svo kabliranje i sva teška infrastruktura --
09:36
I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,
164
551000
4000
sada idem unazad do, na neki način, eksplozivnog dijela Interneta 1994. godine,
09:40
when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.
165
555000
2000
kada je rastao 2.300% na godinu.
09:42
How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994
166
557000
3000
Kako je mogao rasti 2.300% godišnje 1994.
09:45
when people weren't really investing in the Web?
167
560000
3000
kada ljudi nisu stvarno investirali u Internet?
09:48
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
168
563000
4000
To je zbog toga što je teška infrastruktura već bila postavljena.
09:52
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,
169
567000
3000
Dakle žarulja je postavila infrastrukturu,
09:55
and then home appliances started coming into being.
170
570000
3000
i kućni uređaji su se počeli pojavljivati.
09:58
And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --
171
573000
3000
I to je bila ogromna stvar. Prvi je bio električni fen --
10:01
this was the 1890 electric fan.
172
576000
3000
to je bio električni fen iz 1890.
10:04
And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --
173
579000
4000
I uređaji, zlatno doba uređaja je stvarno potrajalo --
10:08
it depends how you want to measure it --
174
583000
2000
ovisi kako to želite mjeriti --
10:10
but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.
175
585000
3000
ali to je između 40 i 60 godina, To traje dugi niz godina.
10:13
It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.
176
588000
5000
Započinje oko 1890. A električni fen je ostvario ogroman uspjeh.
10:19
The electric iron, also very big.
177
594000
3000
Električna pegla, također ogroman uspjeh.
10:22
By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
178
597000
4000
Usput, ovo je početak parnice za azbest.
10:26
(Laughter)
179
601000
1000
(Smijeh)
10:27
There's asbestos under that handle there.
180
602000
3000
Ovdje je azbest ispod te ručke tamo.
10:32
This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,
181
607000
3000
Ovo je prvi usisivač, Skinner usisivač iz 1905.
10:35
from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds
182
610000
5000
koji je proizvela kompanija Hoover. I težio je skoro 42 kg,
10:40
and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.
183
615000
5000
bilo je potrebno dvoje ljudi za rukovanje i zauzimao je ¼ automobila.
10:45
So it wasn't a big seller.
184
620000
2000
Dakle nije se sjajno prodavao.
10:47
This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --
185
622000
4000
Ovo je stvarno bio proizvod koji je prerano izbačen --
10:51
(Laughter)
186
626000
1000
(Smijeh)
10:52
the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.
187
627000
2000
Skinner usisivač iz 1905.
10:54
But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.
188
629000
3000
Ali tri godine kasnije, 1908. težio je 18 kg.
10:59
Now, not all these things were highly successful.
189
634000
4000
Nisu sve te stvari bile jako uspješne.
11:03
(Laughter)
190
638000
2000
(Smijeh)
11:05
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.
191
640000
3000
Ovo je električna preša za kravate, koja se nikada nije uhvatila.
11:08
People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.
192
643000
5000
Ljudi, pretpostavljam, su odlučili da neće gužvati svoje kravate.
11:15
These never really caught on either:
193
650000
2000
Ovaj se također nikada nije uhvatio na tržištu:
11:17
the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.
194
652000
4000
električni grijač cipela i sušač. Nikada se nije prodavao na veliko.
11:21
This came in, like, six different colors.
195
656000
2000
Ovaj se mogao kupiti, u šest različitih boja.
11:23
(Laughter)
196
658000
1000
(Smijeh)
11:25
I don't know why. But I thought, you know,
197
660000
3000
Ne znam zašto. Ali mislim, znate,
11:28
sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;
198
663000
4000
nekada jednostavno nije pravo vrijeme za izum;
11:32
maybe it's time to give this one another shot.
199
667000
3000
možda je vrijeme da ovome pružimo još jednu priliku.
11:35
So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.
200
670000
4000
Tako sam mislio da bismo mogli napraviti Super Bowl spot za ovo.
11:39
We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --
201
674000
4000
Trebali bismo pravog partnera. I to sam stvarno razmišljao --
11:43
(Laughter)
202
678000
2000
(Smijeh)
11:45
I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.
203
680000
4000
mislio sam da bi upalilo, da pokušamo ponovno.
11:49
Now, the toaster was huge
204
684000
2000
Toster je bio ogroman uspjeh
11:51
because they used to make toast on open fires,
205
686000
3000
jer su do tada radili tost na vatri na otvorenom,
11:54
and it took a lot of time and attention.
206
689000
2000
i trebalo mu je puno vremena i pažnje.
11:56
I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.
207
691000
6000
Želim istaknuti jednu stvar. To je -- vi znate o čemu se radi.
12:02
They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.
208
697000
3000
Još nisu izmislili električnu utičnicu.
12:05
So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.
209
700000
3000
To je bilo -- zapamtite, nisu povezali kuće sa strujom.
12:08
They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.
210
703000
4000
Povezali su ih zbog svjetla. Tako vaši -- vaši uređaji bi se uključili.
12:12
They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.
211
707000
3000
Svaka soba je imala utičnicu za žarulju na vrhu.
12:15
And you'd plug it in there.
212
710000
2000
I onda biste to tamo uključili.
12:17
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,
213
712000
3000
U stvari, ako ste vidjeli ringišpil u Disney svijetu,
12:20
you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.
214
715000
4000
vidjeli ste to. Ovdje su kablovi izlazili iz tog postolja za svjetlo.
12:24
All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb
215
719000
4000
Svi uređaji uključeni tamo. I samo odvrnete svoju žarulju
12:28
if you wanted to plug in an appliance.
216
723000
2000
ako želite uključiti uređaj.
12:30
The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.
217
725000
5000
Slijedeća stvar koja je postigla veliki uspjeh, bio je stroj za pranje.
12:35
Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.
218
730000
3000
Dakle, to je bio predmet velike zavisti i požude.
12:38
Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.
219
733000
3000
Svi su željeli te električne strojeve za pranje.
12:41
On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.
220
736000
2000
S lijeve strane, to je sapunasta voda.
12:43
And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.
221
738000
2000
I tamo se nalazi rotor -- koji ovaj motor vrti.
12:45
And it would clean your clothes.
222
740000
2000
I može očistiti vašu odjeću.
12:47
This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here,
223
742000
3000
Ovo je čista voda za ispiranje. Tako biste uzeli odjeću ovdje,
12:50
put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric ringer.
224
745000
4000
stavili ovdje, i onda biste provukli odjeću kroz električnu alku.
12:54
And this was a big deal.
225
749000
2000
I to je bila velika stvar.
12:56
You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.
226
751000
4000
Držali biste to na svom trijemu. Bilo je malo neuredno i na neki način bolno.
13:00
And you'd run a long cord into the house
227
755000
3000
I imali biste dugačku sajlu u kući
13:03
where you could screw it into your light socket.
228
758000
3000
kako biste je mogli priključiti na utičnicu za svjetlo.
13:06
(Laughter)
229
761000
1000
(Smijeh)
13:07
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,
230
762000
3000
I to je na neki način važna točka u mojoj prezentaciji,
13:10
because they hadn't invented the off switch.
231
765000
4000
jer nisu izmislili prekidač za isključivanje.
13:14
That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --
232
769000
3000
To je došlo bitno kasnije -- prekidač na uređajima --
13:17
because it didn't make any sense.
233
772000
2000
jer nije imalo nikakvog smisla.
13:19
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.
234
774000
3000
Mislim, niste željeli da vam ta stvar začepi utičnicu za svjetlo.
13:22
So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.
235
777000
3000
Tako ste, kada biste bili gotovi, odvrnuli stvar.
13:25
That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.
236
780000
2000
To ste radili. Niste je isključili na prekidaču.
13:27
And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either,
237
782000
4000
Kao što sam ranije rekao, nisu izmislili električni izlaz,
13:31
so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.
238
786000
3000
tako je stroj za pranje bio posebno opasan uređaj.
13:34
And there are --
239
789000
2000
A ovdje su --
13:36
when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions
240
791000
3000
kada ovo istražujete, postoje jezivi opisi
13:39
of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.
241
794000
5000
ljudi čija se kosa ili odjeća uhvatila u te uređaje.
13:44
And they couldn't yank the cord out
242
799000
2000
A oni nisu mogli samo izvući kabel
13:46
because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
243
801000
4000
jer je bio zašarafljen u utičnici za svjetlo u kući.
13:50
(Laughter)
244
805000
1000
(Smijeh)
13:51
And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.
245
806000
4000
I nije postojao prekidač, što nije bilo dobro.
13:56
And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors
246
811000
4000
I možda mislite kako je to bilo nevjerojatno glupo od naših predaka
14:00
to be plugging things into a light socket like this.
247
815000
3000
zavrtati ovako stvari u utičnicu za svjetlo.
14:03
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors,
248
818000
4000
Ali, znate, prije nego što odem predaleko u osuđivanju naših predaka,
14:07
I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.
249
822000
3000
mislio sam vam pokazati: ovo je moja konferencijska soba.
14:10
This is a total kludge, if you ask me.
250
825000
3000
Ovo je prilično nespretno, ako mene pitate.
14:13
First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket --
251
828000
3000
Prije svega, ovo je instalirano naopačke. Ova utičnica za svjetlo --
14:16
(Laughter)
252
831000
1000
(Smijeh)
14:17
and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
253
832000
2000
i tako kabel stalno ispada, tako da sam ga zalijepio.
14:19
(Laughter)
254
834000
2000
(Smijeh)
14:21
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one.
255
836000
4000
Ovo bi trebalo -- nemojte ni da počnem. Ali ovo nije najgori.
14:25
This is what it looks like under my desk.
256
840000
2000
Ovako izgleda ispod mog stola.
14:27
I took this picture just two days ago.
257
842000
3000
Ovo sam slikao prije samo dva dana.
14:30
So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
258
845000
3000
Tako da nismo baš puno napredovali od 1908.
14:33
(Laughter)
259
848000
2000
(Smijeh)
14:35
It's a total, total mess.
260
850000
2000
To je potpuni, potpuni nered.
14:37
And, you know, we think it's getting better,
261
852000
3000
I, znate, mislimo da napredujemo,
14:40
but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
262
855000
4000
ali jeste li pokušali ikada instalirati 802.11 sami?
14:44
(Laughter)
263
859000
1000
(Smijeh)
14:45
I challenge you to try. It's very hard.
264
860000
2000
Izazivam vas da pokušate. Jako je teško.
14:47
I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science --
265
862000
3000
Znam doktore iz računalnih znanosti --
14:50
this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter)
266
865000
3000
taj proces ih je doveo do suza, potpunog očaja.
14:54
And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.
267
869000
5000
A to je ako pretpostavimo da imate DSL kod kuće.
15:00
Try to get DSL installed in your house.
268
875000
2000
Pokušaje instalirati DSL u svojoj kući.
15:03
The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.
269
878000
2000
Inžinjeri koji to rade svakodnevno ne mogu to napraviti.
15:05
They have to -- typically, they come three times.
270
880000
3000
Oni moraju -- tipično dolaze tri puta.
15:08
And one friend of mine was telling me a story:
271
883000
2000
A jedan moj prijatelj mi je ispričao priču.
15:10
not only did they get there and have to wait,
272
885000
3000
Ne samo da su oni došli tamo i morali čekati,
15:13
but then the engineers, when they finally did get there,
273
888000
3000
ali onda su inžinjeri, nakon što su konačno došli,
15:16
for the third time, they had to call somebody.
274
891000
2000
treći puta, morali su nazvati nekoga.
15:18
And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone
275
893000
3000
I bili su stvarno sretni što taj čovjek ima telefon sa zvučnikom
15:21
because then they had to wait on hold for an hour
276
896000
2000
jer su ih stavili na čekanje jedan sat
15:23
to talk to somebody to give them an access code
277
898000
2000
kako bi mogli razgovarati s nekime tko im je dao pristupni kod
15:25
after they got there.
278
900000
2000
nakon što su došli.
15:27
So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
279
902000
4000
Dakle nismo -- prilično smo nespretni.
15:31
By the way, DSL is a kludge.
280
906000
2000
Usput, DSL je nered.
15:33
I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed
281
908000
2000
Mislim, to je zapletena parica od bakra koja nikada nije bila dizajnirana
15:35
for the purpose it's being put to --
282
910000
2000
za svrhu koja joj je namjenjena.
15:37
you know it's the whole thing --
283
912000
2000
Znate to je cijela stvar.
15:39
we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point.
284
914000
4000
Mi smo jako, jako primitivni. I to je nekakav zaključak.
15:43
Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush,
285
918000
4000
Jer, znate, elastičnost -- ako razmišljate o njoj u uvjetima Zlatne groznice,
15:47
then you'd be pretty depressed right now
286
922000
2000
onda biste bili prilično depresivni sada
15:49
because the last nugget of gold would be gone.
287
924000
3000
jer bi zadnji grumen zlata otišao.
15:52
But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.
288
927000
3000
Ali dobra stvar je, s inovacijom, nema zadnjeg grumena.
15:55
Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
289
930000
5000
Svaka nova stvar stvara dva nova pitanja i dvije nove prilike.
16:00
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --
290
935000
4000
I ako vjerujete u to, onda vjerujete da tamo gdje smo sada --
16:04
this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge --
291
939000
4000
ovo je ono što ja mislim: vjerujem da tamo gdje smo s nevjerojatnom petljancijom --
16:08
and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web --
292
943000
3000
a nisam pričao o korisničkom sučelju na Internetu.
16:12
but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff --
293
947000
3000
Ali tamo ima toliko puno petljancije, toliko puno strašnih stvari,
16:15
we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.
294
950000
4000
da se nalazimo s Internetom u 1908. godini, na razini Hurley stroja za pranje.
16:19
That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it,
295
954000
3000
To je gdje se nalazimo. Ne hvata nam se kosa,
16:22
but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.
296
957000
3000
ali to je razina primitivnosti na kojoj se nalazimo.
16:25
We're in 1908.
297
960000
2000
Mi smo u 1908.
16:27
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996:
298
962000
4000
I vjerujem kako vas stvari poput ove ne bi smetale. Ovo je 1996. godina:
16:31
"All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."
299
966000
4000
"Sve zbrojene negativnosti vam čine on-line iskustvo nepotrebnom gnjavažom."
16:35
1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb."
300
970000
6000
1998.: "Amazon tost". U 1999.: "Amazon bomba".
16:41
My mom hates this picture.
301
976000
2000
Moja mama mrzi ovu sliku.
16:43
(Laughter)
302
978000
3000
(Smijeh)
16:47
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,
303
982000
3000
Ona -- ali znate, ako stvarno vjerujete kako je to pravi,
16:50
very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine,
304
985000
4000
pravi početak, ako vjerujete kako je ovo 1908. Hurley-jev stroj za pranje,
16:54
then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are.
305
989000
3000
onda ste jako optimistični. A ja ne mislim da se tu nalazimo.
16:57
And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us
306
992000
3000
I mislim kako je ispred nas još puno više inovacija
17:00
than there is behind us.
307
995000
2000
nego što je iza nas.
17:02
And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right.
308
997000
4000
A u 1917., Sears -- želim ovo točno pokazati.
17:07
This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917.
309
1002000
4000
Ovo je promotivni spot koji se vrtio 1917.
17:11
It says: "Use your electricity for more than light."
310
1006000
3000
Kaže: "Koristite svoju struju za više od svjetla."
17:14
And I think that's where we are.
311
1009000
2000
A ja mislim da se upravo tu nalazimo.
17:16
We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
312
1011000
2000
Jako je, jako rano. Hvala vam puno.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneerAs founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999.
Why you should listen
Jeff Bezos didn't invent online shopping, but he almost single-handedly turned it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His Amazon.com began as a bookstore in 1994, and quickly expanded into dozens of product categories, forcing the world's biggest retailers to rethink their business models, and ultimately changing the way people shop.
But Amazon.com isn't just an internet success story. It's the standard by which all web businesses are now judged -- if not by their shareholders, then by their customers. Amazon set a high bar for reliability and customer service, and also introduced a wide range of online retail conventions -- from user reviews and one-click shopping to the tab interface and shopping cart icon -- so commonplace we no longer think of them as once having been innovations.
When the Internet bubble burst, Amazon.com took a hit with the other e-commerce pioneers, but the fundamentally sound company hung tough. It now sells more than $10 billion a year of goods, profitably, and its technology will influence the changes to business and media that will come next. Amazon recently released Kindle, a wireless digital reading device, giving the term "page turning" a completely new definition. Bezos, meanwhile, is one of the few early Web CEOs who still run the companies they founded. Outside of his work with Amazon, he recently founded Blue Origin, a space-flight startup.
Jeff Bezos | Speaker | TED.com