TED2003
Jeff Bezos: The electricity metaphor for the web's future
Jeff Bezos：未来的网络创新
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网络产业的兴衰常被比作淘金热。但是亚马逊公司(Amazon.com)的创始人Jeff Bezos则认为它更像是电气制造工业的早期。
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneer
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio
As founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
When you think about resilience and technology it's actually much easier.
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把弹性和技术放在一起考虑，是非常容易的
00:29
You're going to see some other speakers today, I already know,
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我知道大家会见到其他一些演讲者
00:32
who are going to talk about breaking-bones stuff,
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他们会讨论骨折
00:35
and, of course, with technology it never is.
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当然，在技术领域，永远不会。
00:37
So it's very easy, comparatively speaking, to be resilient.
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相对而言，技术很容易适应
00:41
I think that, if we look at what happened on the Internet,
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如果我们看一看在过去的六年里
00:43
with such an incredible last half a dozen years,
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因特网上所发生的不可思议的一切，
00:47
that it's hard to even get the right analogy for it.
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那就会觉得 哪怕是给这一切找个简单恰当的类比也是很难的。
00:50
A lot of how we decide, how we're supposed to react to things
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很多时候，我们如何做决定，如何对事物做反应
00:54
and what we're supposed to expect about the future
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如何展望未来
00:56
depends on how we bucket things
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都决定于我们储存事物的方式
00:58
and how we categorize them.
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以及事物的分类方法
00:59
And so I think the tempting analogy for the boom-bust
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因此，我认为如果可以找一个形象的比喻来描述刚刚经历的网络泡沫
01:03
that we just went through with the Internet is a gold rush.
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“淘金热”是首选
01:07
It's easy to think of this analogy as very different
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这个类比很容易理解
01:10
from some of the other things you might pick.
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其他的比喻就显得没有这么形象
01:12
For one thing, both were very real.
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首先，网络泡沫和淘金热都是真实发生过的
01:14
In 1849, in that Gold Rush, they took over $700 million
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在1849年的淘金潮中，人们从加州淘到价值7亿美元的黄金
01:18
worth of gold out of California. It was very real.
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这可是千真万确的
01:20
The Internet was also very real. This is a real way for humans to
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同时互联网也是完全真实的
01:24
communicate with each other. It's a big deal.
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它提供了一条真正的供人们进行交流的途径，这很了不起
01:27
Huge boom. Huge boom. Huge bust. Huge bust.
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巨大的繁荣，巨大的繁荣，急剧的衰败，急剧的衰败
01:31
You keep going, and both things are lots of hype.
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接着想，二者都伴有大量夸张的宣传
01:34
I don't have to remind you of all the hype
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不用我说，大家都还记得那些有关网络的炒作吧
01:37
that was involved with the Internet -- like GetRich.com.
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比如GetRich.com （1999年9月时代周刊以GetRich.com为题，以长达20页的封面故事描绘网络诱人前景）
01:40
But you had the same thing with the Gold Rush. "Gold. Gold. Gold."
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我们再回头看淘金热，简直是一样的情况。 “金子，金子，金子”
01:43
Sixty-eight rich men on the Steamer Portland. Stacks of yellow metal.
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在波特兰号蒸汽船上的68个暴发户，成堆的黄金！
01:47
Some have 5,000. Many have more.
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有的人有五千，其他人拥有的更多
01:50
A few bring out 100,000 dollars each.
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少数一些人就能淘到10万美元
01:54
People would get very excited about this when they read these articles.
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人们读到这样的文章就会变得非常兴奋
01:57
"The Eldorado of the United States of America:
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美利坚合众国之黄金城
02:00
the discovery of inexhaustible gold mines in California."
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加州发现取之不尽的金矿
02:06
And the parallels between the Gold Rush and the Internet Rush continue very strongly.
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淘金热和网络热的相似之处仍然非常明显
02:10
So many people left what they were doing.
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很人就抛下自己的工作不做了
02:13
And what would happen is -- and the Gold Rush went on for years.
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后来淘金热就这样持续了好多年
02:16
People on the East Coast in 1849, when they first started to get the news,
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东海岸的人，在1849年，当他们刚开始听说这事的时候
02:20
they thought, "Ah, this isn't real."
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都寻思着，“不是真的吧。”
02:22
But they keep hearing about people getting rich,
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可他们不断地听说有人暴富了
02:25
and then in 1850 they still hear that. And they think it's not real.
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直到1850年仍然有这种消息传来，可他们还不信
02:28
By about 1852, they're thinking, "Am I the stupidest person on Earth
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到差不多1852年，他们就觉得，“我是不是世上最傻的人，
02:33
by not rushing to California?" And they start to decide they are.
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怎么没早点儿冲到加州去呢？” 开始觉得自己真是晚了
02:37
These are community affairs, by the way.
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当然，这些其实是地区性的事务
02:39
Local communities on the East Coast would get together and whole teams
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于是，东海岸当地的社区团体联合到一起
02:42
of 10, 20 people would caravan across the United States,
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组织10到20人的商队横跨美国
02:45
and they would form companies.
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并且，他们会组建公司（去淘金）
02:47
These were typically not solitary efforts. But no matter what,
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这些人显然依靠的不是个人力量
02:50
if you were a lawyer or a banker, people dropped what they were doing,
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但不论是律师或银行家，他们丢下自己的工作
02:53
no matter what skill set they had, to go pan for gold.
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不管他们有什么技能，都跑去淘金子
02:57
This guy on the left, Dr. Richard Beverley Cole,
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左边的这个人，Richard Beverley Cole医生
03:00
he lived in Philadelphia and he took the Panama route.
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他住在费城，他走的是巴拿马航线
03:03
They would take a ship down to Panama, across the isthmus,
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他们乘船直下到达巴拿马，跨过巴拿马地峡
03:06
and then take another ship north.
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然后换乘另一只船北上
03:08
This guy, Dr. Toland, went by covered wagon to California.
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这个Toland医生是乘带篷的大马车去的加州
03:13
This has its parallels, too. Doctors leaving their practices.
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他们俩也有相似之处，都是医生，并放弃了从医
03:17
These are both very successful -- a physician in one case,
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他们俩都很成功（医术高明），一个在内科方面
03:19
a surgeon in the other.
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一个在外科方面
03:20
Same thing happened on the Internet. You get DrKoop.com.
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我们看网络上也有这样的例子，出了个 DrKoop.com 网站
03:24
(Laughter)
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(笑声)（由Koop医生成立于1997年的医疗健康网站DrKoop.com在网络泡沫时曾一度辉煌，后破产转手）
03:25
In the Gold Rush, people literally jumped ship.
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淘金热中，人们夸张得从船上跳下来
03:28
The San Francisco harbor was clogged with 600 ships at the peak
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在旧金山的港口，最多的时候聚集了600艘船
03:35
because the ships would get there and the crews would abandon
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因为当船到了那里，船员们都不顾一切的跳下船
03:37
to go search for gold.
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的去淘金了
03:39
So there were literally 600 captains and 600 ships.
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那里当时真的就只剩600个船长和600艘船
03:43
They turned the ships into hotels, because they couldn't sail them anywhere.
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后来那些船都变成了宾馆，因为没有船员，这些船哪里也去不了
03:46
You had dotcom fever. And you had gold fever.
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如果，我们把投身网络公司的热情，和曾经有过的淘金热相比较
03:51
And you saw some of the excesses
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你就能发现这一切有点过头了
03:53
that the dotcom fever created and the same thing happened.
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当互联网热发起时，同样的事情发生了
03:57
The fort in San Francisco at the time had about 1,300 soldiers.
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旧金山的兵营有1300士兵
04:01
Half of them deserted to go look for gold.
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一半人擅离职守去淘金了
04:05
And they wouldn't let the other half out to go look for the first half
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上级不敢让剩下的一半人去找他们
04:08
because they were afraid they wouldn't come back.
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因为担心这些士兵也会一去不返
04:10
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:12
And one of the soldiers wrote home, and this is the sentence that he put:
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其中一个士兵在家信中这样写道：
04:15
"The struggle between right and six dollars a month
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我在这样的矛盾中挣扎，一边是去做正确的事情，每月6美元
04:19
and wrong and 75 dollars a day is a rather severe one."
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另一边是做逃兵，每天75美元
04:27
They had bad burn rate in the Gold Rush. A very bad burn rate.
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淘金热的消耗非常严重，非常严重。
04:31
This is actually from the Klondike Gold Rush. This is the White Pass Trail.
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这是来自淘金热门地区Klondike的一张图片，上面的路被称之为“白通径”
04:35
They loaded up their mules and their horses.
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人们把他们的骡子和马装好
04:39
And they didn't plan right.
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但他们没有计划好
04:43
And they didn't know how far they would really have to go,
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他们不知道他们要走多远
04:46
and they overloaded the horses with hundreds and hundreds of pounds of stuff.
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他们给骡子和马装了太多的东西
04:50
In fact it was so bad that most of the horses died
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结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中
04:54
before they could get where they were going.
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结果大部分的骡子和马都死在途中
04:56
It got renamed the "Dead Horse Trail."
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那条路后来被称为“亡马之路”
04:58
And the Canadian Minister of the Interior wrote this at the time:
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加拿大内政部长这样写道：
05:02
"Thousands of pack horses lie dead along the way,
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路的两边躺满了马的尸体
05:05
sometimes in bunches under the cliffs,
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在悬崖下也有遍地的尸首
05:07
with pack saddles and packs where they've fallen from the rock above,
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上面甚至还有马鞍和这些马坠崖前所驮的杂物
05:11
sometimes in tangled masses, filling the mud holes
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有时，在杂乱的人群中，这些马就在那些泥洞里寻找落脚点
05:14
and furnishing the only footing for our poor pack animals on the march,
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在遥远的行程中背负着大量的货物
05:17
often, I regret to say, exhausted, but still alive,
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很多时候，我不得不说，太累了，但是要活下去
05:21
a fact we were unaware of, until after the miserable wretches
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一个被我们忽略的事实就是，在骡马队伍之中
05:24
turned beneath the hooves of our cavalcade.
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有着那么多的悲惨的人
05:27
The eyeless sockets of the pack animals everywhere
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遍地都是背负重担的动物，它们露出空洞的眼神
05:29
account for the myriads of ravens along the road.
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无数的乌鸦遍布路的两边
05:32
The inhumanity which this trail has been witness to,
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这条路见证的不人道
05:34
the heartbreak and suffering which so many have undergone,
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那些心碎和痛苦的经历，是难以想象的
05:37
cannot be imagined. They certainly cannot be described."
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更是难以用文字描述的
05:42
And you know, without the smell that would have accompanied that,
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虽然没有那些与之俱来的气味
05:47
we had the same thing on the Internet: very bad burn rate calculations.
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但是互联网上发生着同样的事情：极坏的亏损额计算
05:52
I'll just play one of these and you'll remember it.
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我给大家计算其中的一个，你们就会发现我所说的是对的
05:55
This is a commercial that was played on the Super Bowl in the year 2000.
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这是一个在2000年超级杯赛上被播放的商业广告
05:59
(Video): Bride #1: You said you had a large selection of invitations. Clerk: But we do.
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（视频）一号新娘：你说你有很多可选择的邀请。职员：的确是这样的
06:03
Bride #2: Then why does she have my invitation?
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二号新娘：那为什么她会有我的邀请函？
06:06
Announcer: What may be a little thing to some ... Bride #3: You are mine, little man.
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讲解：一些小事将会导致什么...三号新娘：你给我过来，混蛋！
06:11
Announcer: Could be a really big deal to you. Husband #1: Is that your wife?
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讲解：对你来说可能很重要。一号丈夫：那是你妻子吗？
06:15
Husband #2: Not for another 15 minutes. Announcer: After all, it's your special day.
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二号丈夫：15分钟后就是了。讲解：毕竟，这是你的好日子
06:23
OurBeginning.com. Life's an event. Announce it to the world.
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OurBeginning.com网站，生活是件大事，把它向全世界公布
06:26
Jeff Bezos: It's very difficult to figure out what that ad is for.
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很难指出这个广告的目的
06:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:33
But they spent three and a half million dollars
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但是，这家公司花费了350万美元
06:35
in the 2000 Super Bowl to air that ad,
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在2000年的超级杯上播出这个广告
06:38
even though, at the time, they only had a million dollars in annual revenue.
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即便是，在当时，该公司每年的收入只有100万美元
06:44
Now, here's where our analogy with the Gold Rush starts to diverge,
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从这件事情上看，我们把互联网热和淘金热的类比就产生了分歧
06:48
and I think rather severely.
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而且分歧还很严重
06:50
And that is, in a gold rush, when it's over, it's over.
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在淘金热中，当它结束的时候，一切都结束了
06:54
Here's this guy: "There are many men in Dawson
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这里有一个家伙写道：“在道森，当时
06:57
at the present time who feel keenly disappointed.
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有很多人深感失望。
06:59
They've come thousands of miles on a perilous trip, risked life, health and property,
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他们行程数千里，历经万险，冒着生命危险，不顾健康和财富
07:04
spent months of the most arduous labor a man can perform
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花费了一个人所能忍受的数个月的时间
07:07
and at length with expectations raised to the highest pitch
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整个过程中，他们心里一直抱着那个美好的期望
07:10
have reached the coveted goal only to discover
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但是，等他们真正到达的时候
07:12
the fact that there is nothing here for them."
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却发现什么也没有。”
07:16
And that was, of course, the very common story.
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当然，这只是一个很普通的故事
07:19
Because when you take out that last piece of gold --
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因为，当你把最后一块黄金采掘出来的时候
07:21
and they did incredibly quickly. I mean, if you look at the 1849 Gold Rush --
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这个过程是非常短暂的。我的意思是，如果你回顾1849年的淘金热——
07:26
the entire American river region, within two years --
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整个美洲地区的河流，在不到两年的时间里——
07:29
every stone had been turned. And after that, only big companies
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人们翻遍了每一块石头。这样之后，只有那些大型的公司
07:33
who used more sophisticated mining technologies
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用先进的开采技术
07:35
started to take gold out of there.
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在那里进行黄金的开采
07:38
So there's a much better analogy that allows you to be incredibly optimistic
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另外，还有一个好一点的类比，会让你感觉很乐观
07:44
and that analogy is the electric industry.
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那就是电气制造工业
07:49
And there are a lot of similarities between the Internet and the electric industry.
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电气制造工业和互联网有很多的相似之处
07:53
With the electric industry you actually have to --
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电气制造工业涉及的范围很广
07:56
one of them is that they're both sort of thin,
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——当然，它和互联网一样，根基都不是很深
07:58
horizontal, enabling layers that go across lots of different industries.
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但是，它所涉及的不同的产业是很多的
08:01
It's not a specific thing.
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这不是一个具体的事情
08:05
But electricity is also very, very broad, so you have to sort of narrow it down.
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但是电力的使用范围很广阔，因此你必须把它缩小了排序
08:10
You know, it can be used as an incredible means of transmitting power.
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它可以作为一种极佳的传输能量的方法
08:14
It's an incredible means of coordinating,
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甚至可以促进合作
08:16
in a very fine-grained way, information flows.
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以一种非常精细的方式，包括信息流
08:18
There's a bunch of things that are interesting about electricity.
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关于电力，有一大堆的趣事
08:21
And the part of the electric revolution that I want to focus on
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我所关注的电力革命
08:26
is sort of the golden age of appliances.
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只是那些“黄金时代”中的器械装置
08:29
The killer app that got the world ready for appliances was the light bulb.
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让整个世界为之一震的、最为显著的器械就是电灯泡了
08:34
So the light bulb is what wired the world.
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把世界用电线连接起来的就是电灯泡
08:36
And they weren't thinking about appliances when they wired the world.
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当人们架接电线的时候，他们没有想到其他的用电器
08:40
They were really thinking about --
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在当时，人们关注的只是——
08:42
they weren't putting electricity into the home;
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人们不认为是把电线扯到家里（没有把电力引进自己家中）
08:44
they were putting lighting into the home.
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而是把照明装置安到家中
08:47
And, but it really -- it got the electricity. It took a long time.
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人们的确得到并使用了电力——但这花费了很长时间
08:51
This was a huge -- as you would expect -- a huge capital build out.
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中间花费了——正如你所期望的——巨大的资本去构建这个供电网络
08:55
All the streets had to be torn up.
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所有的街道被重新休整了一番
08:58
This is work going on down in lower Manhattan
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这幅图片显示的是在下曼哈顿
09:02
where they built some of the first electric power generating stations.
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施工人员正在建设第一座发电站
09:06
And they're tearing up all the streets.
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他们挖开所有的街道
09:08
The Edison Electric Company, which became Edison General Electric,
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爱迪生电气公司，后来更名为爱迪生通用电气公司
09:11
which became General Electric,
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后来成为现在的通用电气
09:13
paid for all of this digging up of the streets. It was incredibly expensive.
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出资进行道路的挖掘，这是非常昂贵的
09:19
But that is not the -- and that's not the part that's really most similar to the Web.
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但，这还不是和网络最相似的地方
09:26
Because, remember, the Web got to stand
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因为，网络是基于
09:28
on top of all this heavy infrastructure
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所有的那些大型的基础设施之上的
09:30
that had been put in place because of the long-distance phone network.
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而当时这些基础设施主要服务于长距离的电话网络
09:33
So all of the cabling and all of the heavy infrastructure --
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因此，所有的电缆和那些重型的基础设施——
09:36
I'm going back now to, sort of, the explosive part of the Web in 1994,
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我刚刚讲的，就是1994年网络爆炸式发展中的一部分
09:40
when it was growing 2,300 percent a year.
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其年增长率一度达到2300%
09:42
How could it grow at 2,300 percent a year in 1994
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在1994年，网络产业是怎么做到一年增长2300%，
09:45
when people weren't really investing in the Web?
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并且没有外部的投资？
09:48
Well, it was because that heavy infrastructure had already been laid down.
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其实，就是因为这些重型、大型的基础设施早已经铺设好了
09:52
So the light bulb laid down the heavy infrastructure,
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电灯的普及导致了重型设备的投入
09:55
and then home appliances started coming into being.
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在此基础上家用电器开始遍地生花
09:58
And this was huge. The first one was the electric fan --
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当然，这个数量（家用电器）非常庞大的。第一件家用电器是电风扇——
10:01
this was the 1890 electric fan.
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这个照片就是1890年发明的电风扇
10:04
And the appliances, the golden age of appliances really lasted --
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这些设备，这些设备、器械的繁荣时期持续了——
10:08
it depends how you want to measure it --
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当然这取决于你怎么衡量它——
10:10
but it's anywhere from 40 to 60 years. It goes on a long time.
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大约有40到60年的样子。这是一段很长的时期
10:13
It starts about 1890. And the electric fan was a big success.
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大约开始于1890年，并且电风扇是一个巨大的成功
10:19
The electric iron, also very big.
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电熨斗，也非常成功
10:22
By the way, this is the beginning of the asbestos lawsuit.
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顺便说一下，这也是有关石棉诉讼的开端（石棉可用作保温隔热材料）
10:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:27
There's asbestos under that handle there.
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在那个把手下有石棉物质
10:32
This is the first vacuum cleaner, the 1905 Skinner Vacuum,
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这是第一台吸尘器，1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器
10:35
from the Hoover Company. And this one weighed 92 pounds
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它是Hoover公司制造的，重达92磅
10:40
and took two people to operate and cost a quarter of a car.
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需要两个人进行操作，并且其造价达到了一辆汽车的四分之一
10:45
So it wasn't a big seller.
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所以，它卖的不是很好
10:47
This was truly, truly an early-adopter product --
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这是最早的采纳产品
10:51
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:52
the 1905 Skinner Vacuum.
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1905年的Skinner牌吸尘器
10:54
But three years later, by 1908, it weighed 40 pounds.
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仅仅三年后，也就是1908年，它的重量就缩减到了40磅
10:59
Now, not all these things were highly successful.
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并不是所有的事情都是那么成功
11:03
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:05
This is the electric tie press, which never really did catch on.
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这是一个电力领带熨平器，它就没有流行起来
11:08
People, I guess, decided that they would not wrinkle their ties.
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我猜，人们都不会把他们的领带弄皱
11:15
These never really caught on either:
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下面的这些也没有流行起来：
11:17
the electric shoe warmer and drier. Never a big seller.
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鞋子专用的电动加热干燥器，销量很差
11:21
This came in, like, six different colors.
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它看起来有六种不同的颜色
11:23
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:25
I don't know why. But I thought, you know,
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我不知道这是为什么，但是，你们可能会这样认为
11:28
sometimes it's just not the right time for an invention;
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并不是任何时候都适合进行一些发明创造
11:32
maybe it's time to give this one another shot.
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也许，现在是重新启动这项发明的最佳时间
11:35
So I thought we could build a Super Bowl ad for this.
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因此，我们可以就此推出一个广告，将其在超级杯上播放
11:39
We'd need the right partner. And I thought that really --
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我们需要合适的合作伙伴，而且我觉得——
11:43
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
11:45
I thought that would really work, to give that another shot.
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我觉得这样一定可行，值得重新尝试一下
11:49
Now, the toaster was huge
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电烤箱曾经是个庞然大物
11:51
because they used to make toast on open fires,
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因为人们通常在野外做烤面包
11:54
and it took a lot of time and attention.
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这需要很多的时间和精力
11:56
I want to point out one thing. This is -- you guys know what this is.
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我想指出的是，这个，大家应该知道这是什么东西
12:02
They hadn't invented the electric socket yet.
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那个时候人们尚未发明电插座
12:05
So this was -- remember, they didn't wire the houses for electricity.
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还记得吗，当时人们不是为了使用电力而拉电线
12:08
They wired them for lighting. So your -- your appliances would plug in.
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他们是为了照明。因此，你可以把你的用电器插到上面
12:12
They would -- each room typically had a light bulb socket at the top.
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人们在每一间屋子的天花板上都会装一个灯泡插座
12:15
And you'd plug it in there.
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这样你就可以把灯泡插在上面了
12:17
In fact, if you've seen the Carousel of Progress at Disney World,
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如果你没有见到过迪斯尼乐园的旋转木马
12:20
you've seen this. Here are the cables coming up into this light fixture.
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你一定看到过这个。这些是连接灯具的电线
12:24
All the appliances plug in there. And you would just unscrew your light bulb
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所有的用电器都装在上面。你需要做的就是将你的灯泡拧下来
12:28
if you wanted to plug in an appliance.
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这样你就可以使用其他的用电器了
12:30
The next thing that really was a big, big deal was the washing machine.
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洗衣机是接下来的非常成功的另一个例子
12:35
Now, this was an object of much envy and lust.
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这是一个充满嫉妒和欲望对象
12:38
Everybody wanted one of these electric washing machines.
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每个人都想得到一台电动洗衣机
12:41
On the left-hand side, this was the soapy water.
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左边的那个桶装的是肥皂水
12:43
And there's a rotor there -- that this motor is spinning.
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那里有一个转子，是一个旋转式马达
12:45
And it would clean your clothes.
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它会清洁你的衣服
12:47
This is the clean rinse-water. So you'd take the clothes out of here,
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这是漂洗用的干净的水。从这里你可以把衣服拿出来
12:50
put them in here, and then you'd run the clothes through this electric ringer.
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放在这里，然后把衣服通过这个电圈
12:54
And this was a big deal.
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这是一台很了不起的电器
12:56
You'd keep this on your porch. It was a little bit messy and kind of a pain.
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你会把它放在你的门廊上，因为它有点脏，并且有点烦人
13:00
And you'd run a long cord into the house
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你不得不扯一条很长的电线到你的房子里
13:03
where you could screw it into your light socket.
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这样你才能把它连在灯座上
13:06
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:07
And that's actually kind of an important point in my presentation,
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而这实际上是我的介绍中很重要的一点
13:10
because they hadn't invented the off switch.
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因为人们当时还没有发明开关
13:14
That was to come much later -- the off switch on appliances --
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而电器上开关的发明时间比这个还要晚
13:17
because it didn't make any sense.
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因为人们觉得这没有什么意义
13:19
I mean, you didn't want this thing clogging up a light socket.
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我的意思是说，人们不希望有什么东西把灯泡底座堵住
13:22
So you know, when you were done with it, you unscrewed it.
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当人们不想使用灯泡的时候，就会把它拧松一些
13:25
That's what you did. You didn't turn it off.
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这就是人们当时所做的，实际上并没有关掉它
13:27
And as I said before, they hadn't invented the electric outlet either,
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正如我之前所讲，人们并没有去发明电插座
13:31
so the washing machine was a particularly dangerous device.
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因此，洗衣机是一台很危险的设备
13:34
And there are --
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实际上
13:36
when you research this, there are gruesome descriptions
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当你研究这些事情的时候，你会找到一些恐怖的描述
13:39
of people getting their hair and clothes caught in these devices.
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比如说人们会不小心把头发和衣服搅在一起
13:44
And they couldn't yank the cord out
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而且你还不能立马将电源断掉
13:46
because it was screwed into a light socket inside the house.
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因为电源插头被紧紧拧在了屋里的灯泡插座上
13:50
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
13:51
And there was no off switch, so it wasn't very good.
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并且洗衣机上也没有开关，这样一点儿也不好
13:56
And you might think that that was incredibly stupid of our ancestors
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你也许会想我们的先人们真是不一般的傻
14:00
to be plugging things into a light socket like this.
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竟然会把用电器像这样插到灯泡插座上
14:03
But, you know, before I get too far into condemning our ancestors,
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但，在我过多讨论谴责我们先人之前
14:07
I thought I'd show you: this is my conference room.
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我觉得我要先给大家展示一下：这是我的会议室
14:10
This is a total kludge, if you ask me.
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这绝对是一台杂牌组装电脑
14:13
First of all, this got installed upside down. This light socket --
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首先，它组装的乱七八糟。这个电灯插座——
14:16
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:17
and so the cord keeps falling out, so I taped it in.
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电线总是会掉出来，所以我就把它固定在了上面
14:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:21
This is supposed -- don't even get me started. But that's not the worst one.
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这样我就不用总是连接电线了，但这还不是最糟糕的
14:25
This is what it looks like under my desk.
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这是我桌子底下的情形
14:27
I took this picture just two days ago.
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是我两天前拍下来的
14:30
So we really haven't progressed that much since 1908.
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其实，自从1908年以来我们根本没有太大的进步
14:33
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:35
It's a total, total mess.
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还是一团糟
14:37
And, you know, we think it's getting better,
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我觉得将来会更好一些
14:40
but have you tried to install 802.11 yourself?
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但，你有没有试着自己安装802.11
14:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:45
I challenge you to try. It's very hard.
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我觉得大家应该尝试一下，非常难
14:47
I know Ph.D.s in Computer Science --
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我认识的一些计算机科学专业的博士
14:50
this process has brought them to tears, absolute tears. (Laughter)
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都认为这个过程非常劳神，绝对让人痛苦
14:54
And that's assuming you already have DSL in your house.
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前提是，你在你的家中有DSL（数字用户线路）
15:00
Try to get DSL installed in your house.
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把数字用户线路装在你的家中
15:03
The engineers who do it everyday can't do it.
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每天做这件事情的工程师都做不了
15:05
They have to -- typically, they come three times.
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他们有时不得不往返三次
15:08
And one friend of mine was telling me a story:
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我的一个朋友曾经告诉我一个故事
15:10
not only did they get there and have to wait,
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不仅仅是那些工作人员到了那里之后，去等待
15:13
but then the engineers, when they finally did get there,
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而且最终工程师到了那里
15:16
for the third time, they had to call somebody.
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也就是第三次的时候，工程师也不得不打电话求助其他人
15:18
And they were really happy that the guy had a speakerphone
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那些工作人员很高兴，因为这个工程师有一个免提电话
15:21
because then they had to wait on hold for an hour
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这样他们在另一个小时的等待过程中就可以
15:23
to talk to somebody to give them an access code
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和另一拨人交流并告诉他们访问代码
15:25
after they got there.
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直至他们到达
15:27
So we're not -- we're pretty kludge-y ourselves.
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其实我们自己本身就是一台杂牌组装电脑
15:31
By the way, DSL is a kludge.
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顺便说一下，DSL（数字用户线路）就是组装的
15:33
I mean, this is a twisted pair of copper that was never designed
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也就是说铜制双绞线设计制作的初衷
15:35
for the purpose it's being put to --
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并不是用于互联网
15:37
you know it's the whole thing --
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这就是整个事情
15:39
we're very, very primitive. And that's kind of the point.
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我们是很原始的，这才是重点
15:43
Because, you know, resilience -- if you think of it in terms of the Gold Rush,
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因为，你知道的，弹性——如果你把它当作淘金热
15:47
then you'd be pretty depressed right now
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然后你会很沮丧
15:49
because the last nugget of gold would be gone.
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因为最后一块黄金将会消失
15:52
But the good thing is, with innovation, there isn't a last nugget.
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不过，值得高兴的是，通过创新，黄金将会取之不尽
15:55
Every new thing creates two new questions and two new opportunities.
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新生事物创造了两个新问题的同时也创造了两个新的机遇（问题与机遇并存）
16:00
And if you believe that, then you believe that where we are --
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如果你相信这句话，那么你也就能体会我们现在的处境
16:04
this is what I think -- I believe that where we are with the incredible kludge --
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这就是我的观点：我喜欢我们所处的这种充斥了组装电脑的环境
16:08
and I haven't even talked about user interfaces on the Web --
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我甚至没有提及互联网上的用户界面（的千差万别）
16:12
but there's so much kludge, so much terrible stuff --
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但是，现实中有太多的杂牌组装电脑，太多可怕的东西
16:15
we are at the 1908 Hurley washing machine stage with the Internet.
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当今互联网的发展状况和1908年Hurley牌洗衣机如出一辙
16:19
That's where we are. We don't get our hair caught in it,
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这就是现在我们的处境。我们不再有头发被搅在洗衣机里的事件发生了
16:22
but that's the level of primitiveness of where we are.
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但这就是我们所处在的原始水平
16:25
We're in 1908.
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仿佛回到了1908年
16:27
And if you believe that, then stuff like this doesn't bother you. This is 1996:
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如果你相信我所说的，那么像这样的事情就不会困扰你了。这是1996年的一条消息：
16:31
"All the negatives add up to making the online experience not worth the trouble."
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“所有的负面消息累积起来，让我们觉得解决网络问题的努力变得毫无价值。”
16:35
1998: "Amazon.toast." In 1999: "Amazon.bomb."
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1998：“亚马逊如同烤面包”，但1999：“亚马逊就是炸弹”
16:41
My mom hates this picture.
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我妈妈不喜欢这张照片
16:43
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
16:47
She -- but you know, if you really do believe that it's the very,
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但是，如果你真是这么认为的话，那仅仅是
16:50
very beginning, if you believe it's the 1908 Hurley washing machine,
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一个开始，如果你把互联网看成是1908年的Hurley牌洗衣机
16:54
then you're incredibly optimistic. And I do think that that's where we are.
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你就会觉得很有希望。而我就是这么看待现如今的网络的
16:57
And I do think there's more innovation ahead of us
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我坚信，将来我们能够创造的革新远比我们已经
17:00
than there is behind us.
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做到的要多得多
17:02
And in 1917, Sears -- I want to get this exactly right.
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1917年，当时...我希望别把这个搞错了
17:07
This was the advertisement that they ran in 1917.
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这是一个在1917年播出的广告
17:11
It says: "Use your electricity for more than light."
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上面有句话：“不要仅仅用电来照明。”
17:14
And I think that's where we are.
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我觉得，这就是我们现在所面临的处境
17:16
We're very, very early. Thank you very much.
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我们还非常非常早。谢谢大家。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jeff Bezos - Online commerce pioneerAs founder and CEO of Amazon.com, Jeff Bezos defined online shopping and rewrote the rules of commerce, ushering in a new era in business. Time magazine named him Man of the Year in 1999.
Why you should listen
Jeff Bezos didn't invent online shopping, but he almost single-handedly turned it into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise. His Amazon.com began as a bookstore in 1994, and quickly expanded into dozens of product categories, forcing the world's biggest retailers to rethink their business models, and ultimately changing the way people shop.
But Amazon.com isn't just an internet success story. It's the standard by which all web businesses are now judged -- if not by their shareholders, then by their customers. Amazon set a high bar for reliability and customer service, and also introduced a wide range of online retail conventions -- from user reviews and one-click shopping to the tab interface and shopping cart icon -- so commonplace we no longer think of them as once having been innovations.
When the Internet bubble burst, Amazon.com took a hit with the other e-commerce pioneers, but the fundamentally sound company hung tough. It now sells more than $10 billion a year of goods, profitably, and its technology will influence the changes to business and media that will come next. Amazon recently released Kindle, a wireless digital reading device, giving the term "page turning" a completely new definition. Bezos, meanwhile, is one of the few early Web CEOs who still run the companies they founded. Outside of his work with Amazon, he recently founded Blue Origin, a space-flight startup.
Jeff Bezos | Speaker | TED.com