TED2018
Rodin Lyasoff: How autonomous flying taxis could change the way you travel
Rodin Lyasoff: Kako bi autonomni leteći taksiji mogli promijeniti način na koji putujete
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1,593,235 views
Let će uskoro postati puno osobniji, kaže avijacijski poduzetnik Rodin Lyasoff. U svom vizionarskom govoru, zamišlja novo zlatno doba avio putovanja u malim, autonomnim zračnim taksijima, koji nam omogućuju da zaobiđemo gužve u prometu i iz temelja promijenimo kako se krećemo u gradovima. "U prošlom stoljeću, let je povezao naš planet," kaže Lyasoff. "U sljedećem, ponovno će povezati naše lokalne zajednice."
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I love airplanes.
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Volim avione.
00:14
Oh -- I love airplanes.
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O -- ja obožavam avione.
00:16
So, when I went to college
in the late 90s,
in the late 90s,
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Tako, kada sam krenuo na fakultet
u kasnim 90-ima,
u kasnim 90-ima,
00:19
it was obvious that I was
going to study aerospace.
going to study aerospace.
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bilo je očito da ću se baviti
zrakoplovstvom.
zrakoplovstvom.
00:21
And you wouldn't believe
how many people told me,
how many people told me,
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I ne biste vjerovali
koliko ljudi mi je reklo,
koliko ljudi mi je reklo,
00:24
"Oh no, not aerospace.
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"O, ne, ne zrakoplovstvo.
00:26
Aerospace is going to be boring,
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Zrakoplovstvo će biti dosadno,
00:27
everything in aerospace
has already been done."
has already been done."
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sve u zrakoplovstvu već je učinjeno."
00:31
Well, they were a little bit off the mark.
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Pa, malo su promašili.
00:33
And in fact, I think the next decade
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Mislim da će sljedeće desetljeće
00:35
is going to be another
golden age for aviation.
golden age for aviation.
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biti novo zlatno doba avijacije.
00:37
For one thing, and this is
where I get excited,
where I get excited,
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Kao prvo, i ovdje postanem uzbuđen,
00:39
flight is about to get
a lot more personal.
a lot more personal.
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let će postati puno osobniji.
00:41
So, a little compare and contrast.
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Malo usporedbe i kontrasta.
00:44
In the last century,
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U prošlom stoljeću,
00:46
large commercial airplanes
have connected cities across the globe.
have connected cities across the globe.
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veliki komercijalni avioni
povezali su gradove diljem planeta.
povezali su gradove diljem planeta.
00:49
And 100 years ago,
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I prije stotinu godina
00:50
it would have been
unthinkable for all of us
unthinkable for all of us
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za sve nas bilo bi nezamislivo
doletjeti iz čitavog svijeta ovdje
na petodnevnu konferenciju.
na petodnevnu konferenciju.
00:53
to fly here from around the world
for a five-day conference.
for a five-day conference.
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00:55
But we did, and most of us
probably without a second thought.
probably without a second thought.
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Ali jesmo, i većina nas bez razmišljanja.
00:59
And that's a remarkable
achievement for humanity.
achievement for humanity.
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I to je zaista veliko postignuće
za čovječanstvo.
za čovječanstvo.
01:02
But on a day-to-day basis,
we still spend a lot of time in cars.
we still spend a lot of time in cars.
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Ali na dnevnoj bazi, i dalje provodimo
puno vremena u autima.
puno vremena u autima.
01:06
Or actively trying to avoid it.
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Ili ih aktivno nastojimo izbjeći.
Neki od mojih najboljih prijatelja
žive u San Franciscu,
žive u San Franciscu,
01:10
Some of my best friends
live in San Francisco,
live in San Francisco,
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01:12
I live in Mountain View,
about 40 miles away.
about 40 miles away.
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ja živim u Mountain Viewu,
oko 60 km dalje.
oko 60 km dalje.
01:15
We're all busy.
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Svi smo zauzeti.
01:16
At the end of the day,
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Na kraju dana,
01:17
we're separated by something like
two hours of heavy traffic.
two hours of heavy traffic.
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razdvojeni smo s nekih
dva sata gustog prometa.
dva sata gustog prometa.
01:20
So frankly, we haven't seen
each other in a few months.
each other in a few months.
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Tako da, iskreno, nismo se vidjeli
nekoliko mjeseci.
nekoliko mjeseci.
01:24
Now, I work in downtown San Jose,
which is near the airport.
which is near the airport.
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Sad, ja radim u centru San Josea,
koji je blizu aerodroma.
koji je blizu aerodroma.
01:28
And there are actually days
when I can leave work,
when I can leave work,
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I postoje dani kada mogu otići s posla,
01:31
get on a plane and fly to Los Angeles
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sjesti na avion i odletjeti za Los Angeles
01:34
faster than I can drive to San Francisco.
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brže nego što se mogu
odvesti u San Francisco.
odvesti u San Francisco.
01:36
Cities are only getting more populated,
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Gradovi su sve napučeniji,
01:38
the roads are full, and it's really
difficult to expand them.
difficult to expand them.
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ceste su pune
i zaista ih je teško proširiti.
i zaista ih je teško proširiti.
01:41
And so in a lot of places,
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Tako da na puno mjesta
01:43
there really aren't a lot
of good solutions
of good solutions
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zaista nema nekih dobrih rješenja
01:45
for getting around traffic.
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za probleme prometa.
01:47
But what if you could fly over it?
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Ali što kada biste ih mogli preletjeti?
01:51
The sky is underutilized,
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Nebo je neiskorišteno
01:52
and I would argue it will never be
as congested as the roads are.
as congested as the roads are.
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i ja vjerujem kako nikad neće biti
zakrčeno kao što su ceste.
zakrčeno kao što su ceste.
01:56
First of all, you've got
a whole other dimension,
a whole other dimension,
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Prvo, imate potpuno drugu dimenziju,
01:59
but also just safety considerations
and air-traffic management
and air-traffic management
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ali također, upravljanje zračnim prometom
te sigurnosni propisi
te sigurnosni propisi
02:03
will not allow bumper-to-bumper
traffic in the sky.
traffic in the sky.
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neće dozvoliti gužvu u prometu na nebu.
02:05
Which means, in many cases,
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Što u puno slučajeva znači
02:07
flying can be a long-term,
compelling alternative
compelling alternative
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da letenje može biti dugoročna
zanimljiva alternativa
zanimljiva alternativa
02:10
to traveling on the ground.
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putovanju na zemlji.
02:13
So imagine this:
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Zamislite ovo:
02:14
you call an Uber, it takes you
to a nearby landing spot --
to a nearby landing spot --
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zovete Uber, odveze vas
do sletne točke u blizini --
do sletne točke u blizini --
02:17
we call these vertiports --
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na okomito uzletište --
02:20
there's an airplane waiting for you there,
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tamo vas čeka avion,
preletite sav taj promet između
02:22
flies you over all
of the traffic in the middle,
of the traffic in the middle,
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i na drugoj strani drugi Uber
vas odveze do prijateljeve kuće.
vas odveze do prijateljeve kuće.
02:24
and on the other side, another Uber
takes you to your friend's house.
takes you to your friend's house.
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I kažem Uber,
02:27
And I said Uber,
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ali mislim da trebamo čestitati
Lyft (podizanje) branding timu
Lyft (podizanje) branding timu
02:28
but I really think we need
to congratulate the Lyft branding team
to congratulate the Lyft branding team
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02:31
for their forward thinking
in choosing their brand.
in choosing their brand.
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na svom naprednom razmišljanju
u odabiru branda.
u odabiru branda.
02:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:36
So in that example,
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Tako da u tom primjeru,
02:37
OK, there are a few extra steps, I admit.
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OK, ima nekoliko koraka više, priznajem.
02:39
But it's 30 minutes versus two hours,
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Ali to je pola sata naspram dva sata,
02:43
it costs around 60 dollars,
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košta oko 60 dolara
02:44
and you get to fly.
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i letite.
02:46
We're not there yet,
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Nismo još došli do toga,
02:48
but we are a lot closer
than you might think.
than you might think.
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ali smo puno bliže no što mislite.
02:50
So one of the first things we need
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Jedna od stvari koje trebamo
02:52
is we need an aircraft that can
take off and land in small spaces
take off and land in small spaces
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je letjelica koja može poletjeti
i sletjeti na malim prostorima
i sletjeti na malim prostorima
02:55
and quickly take you where you want to go.
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i brzo vas odvesti gdje trebate.
02:57
And helicopters can do that today,
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I helikopteri to mogu danas,
02:59
but traditionally, helicopters have been
just a little bit too expensive,
just a little bit too expensive,
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ali su oni oduvijek malo preskupi,
03:03
just a little too hard to pilot
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malo preteški za pilotiranje
03:05
and just a little too noisy to be used
for daily transportation in cities.
for daily transportation in cities.
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i malo preglasni za dnevni
transport u gradovima.
transport u gradovima.
03:10
Well, electric flight and autonomy
are changing that.
are changing that.
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Pa, električni letovi
i autonomija to mijenjaju.
i autonomija to mijenjaju.
03:14
Electric flight, in particular,
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Električni letovi osobito
03:15
unlocks new possibilities
for vehicle configurations
for vehicle configurations
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otvaraju nove mogućnosti
za konfiguraciju vozila
za konfiguraciju vozila
03:18
that we just could not
explore in the past.
explore in the past.
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koje prije nismo mogli istraživati.
Ako koristite električne motore,
03:21
If you use electric motors,
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možete ih imati puno oko letjelice
03:23
you can have many of them
around the aircraft,
around the aircraft,
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03:25
and it doesn't add a lot of extra weight.
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i to ne dodaje puno težine,
03:27
And that gives you redundancy and safety.
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a daje vam dodatnu rezervu i sigurnost.
03:29
And also, they are cleaner,
cheaper and quieter
cheaper and quieter
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Također, čišći su, povoljniji i tiši
03:31
than internal combustion engines.
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nego motori s unutarnjim izgaranjem.
03:33
Autonomy allows the transportation
network to scale,
network to scale,
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Autonomija dozvoljava
transportnoj mreži da raste
transportnoj mreži da raste
03:36
and I actually think
it makes the aircraft safer.
it makes the aircraft safer.
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i mislim da čini letjelicu sigurnijom.
03:39
Commercial flights are already automated
for most of their duration,
for most of their duration,
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Komercijalni letovi su već
automatizirani većim dijelom puta
automatizirani većim dijelom puta
03:42
and I believe there will come a day
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i vjerujem da će doći dan
03:45
when we won't even trust an airplane
that required a human to fly.
that required a human to fly.
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kada više nećemo ni vjerovati avionu
kojim je trebao upravljati čovjek.
kojim je trebao upravljati čovjek.
03:50
So, one of our teams at A3
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Tako, jedan naš tim u A3
03:52
wanted to see just how close
this future really was.
this future really was.
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htio je provjeriti koliko je,
zapravo, blizu budućnost.
zapravo, blizu budućnost.
03:55
So they built and flew a prototype
of one such vehicle.
of one such vehicle.
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Stoga su izgradili i letjeli
prototipom jednog takvog vozila.
prototipom jednog takvog vozila.
03:59
And they made a point of only using
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I koristili su samo
04:01
mature, commercially available
technologies today.
technologies today.
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zrele, komercijalno dostupne
tehnologije današnjice.
tehnologije današnjice.
04:04
We call it Vahana.
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Zovemo ga Vahana.
04:05
It's fully electric.
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Električan je.
04:08
It takes off and lands vertically,
but flies forward like a regular airplane.
but flies forward like a regular airplane.
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Polijeće i slijeće vertikalno,
ali leti naprijed kao normalan avion.
ali leti naprijed kao normalan avion.
04:11
It's fully self-piloted.
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Potpuno je autonoman.
04:13
You push a button, it takes off,
flies and lands, all by itself.
flies and lands, all by itself.
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Stisnete dugme, polijeće,
leti i slijeće, potpuno samostalno.
leti i slijeće, potpuno samostalno.
04:17
The prototype that you see here
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Prototip kojeg vidite ovdje
04:19
is designed to carry
a single passenger and luggage.
a single passenger and luggage.
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dizajniran je da nosi
jednog putnika i prtljagu.
jednog putnika i prtljagu.
04:21
And it can go about
20 miles in 15 minutes.
20 miles in 15 minutes.
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I može preletjeti preko 30 km u 15 minuta.
04:23
And our estimate for a trip like that
is it would cost around 40 dollars,
is it would cost around 40 dollars,
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I naša procjena je da bi takav put
koštao oko 40 dolara,
koštao oko 40 dolara,
04:28
which you can really
build a business around.
build a business around.
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oko čega zaista možete razviti posao.
04:30
It has multiple redundant
motors and batteries,
motors and batteries,
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Ima više redundantnih motora i baterija,
04:32
you can lose one, it will continue
flying and land normally.
flying and land normally.
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možete izgubiti jednu i nastavit će
letjeti i sletjeti normalno.
letjeti i sletjeti normalno.
04:36
It's pretty quiet.
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Poprilično je tih.
04:37
When it's flying overhead, it will be
quieter than a Prius on the highway.
quieter than a Prius on the highway.
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Kada leti iznad vas,
bit će tiši nego Prius na autocesti.
bit će tiši nego Prius na autocesti.
04:41
It's intelligent and has cameras,
lidar and radar,
lidar and radar,
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Pametan je i ima kamere, lidar i radar,
04:43
so it can detect and avoid
unexpected obstacles.
unexpected obstacles.
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tako da može uočiti i izbjeći
neočekivane prepreke.
neočekivane prepreke.
04:47
And the team really focused
on making it efficient,
on making it efficient,
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I tim je zaista usredotočen
da bude učinkovit,
da bude učinkovit,
tako da su baterije male,
lagane i traju duže.
lagane i traju duže.
04:49
so the batteries are small, light,
and they last longer.
and they last longer.
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04:53
For reference, the Vahana battery
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Za usporedbu, Vahana baterija
04:56
is less than half the size
of a Tesla Model S battery.
of a Tesla Model S battery.
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je upola manja od baterije Tesla modela S.
04:59
It's about 40 kilowatt-hours.
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Ima 40 kilovat sati.
05:01
And you can hot swap the batteries
in just a few minutes.
in just a few minutes.
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I možete zamijeniti bateriju
u samo par minuta.
u samo par minuta.
05:05
And I do think that in a few years,
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I mislim da će za nekoliko godina
05:06
people will be comfortable
getting by themselves
getting by themselves
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ljudima biti ugodno
da sami uđu u autonomni,
električni, zračni taksi.
električni, zračni taksi.
05:09
in a self-piloted, electric,
VTOL air taxi.
VTOL air taxi.
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05:13
But the team is busy
working on the next version,
working on the next version,
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Ali tim je zauzet radom
na sljedećoj verziji,
na sljedećoj verziji,
05:15
which is going to carry
at least two passengers
at least two passengers
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koja će moći prevoziti bar dva putnika
05:18
and fly quite a bit farther.
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i letjeti još malo dalje.
05:19
But more importantly, there are
over 20 companies around the world
over 20 companies around the world
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Ali još važnije od toga,
postoji 20 tvrtki diljem svijeta
postoji 20 tvrtki diljem svijeta
05:24
working on vehicles
just like this one right now.
just like this one right now.
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koje danas rade na vozilu poput ovoga.
05:28
My best guess is in the next five years,
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Moje nagađanje je da ćete
u sljedećih pet godina
u sljedećih pet godina
05:30
you'll start seeing
vertiports in some cities,
vertiports in some cities,
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početi viđati vertidrome
u nekim gradovima
u nekim gradovima
05:32
and little airplane icons
on your ride-sharing apps.
on your ride-sharing apps.
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i male ikone zrakoplova
u vašim aplikacijama za dijeljenje vožnje.
u vašim aplikacijama za dijeljenje vožnje.
05:36
And it might begin with a dozen,
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I možda će početi s desetak,
05:38
but eventually, we could have
hundreds of these,
hundreds of these,
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ali na kraju ćemo ih možda
imati na stotine
imati na stotine
kako lete oko naših gradova.
05:40
flying around our cities.
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05:42
And it will fundamentally transform
our relationship with local travel.
our relationship with local travel.
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I to će iz temelja promijeniti
naš odnos prema lokalnim putovanjima.
naš odnos prema lokalnim putovanjima.
05:47
In the past century,
flight connected our planet,
flight connected our planet,
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U prošlom stoljeću,
letovi su povezali naš planet,
letovi su povezali naš planet,
05:50
in the next, it will reconnect
our local communities,
our local communities,
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u sljedećem, povezat će
naše lokalne zajednice
naše lokalne zajednice
05:53
and I hope it will
reconnect us to each other.
reconnect us to each other.
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i nadam se da će nas povezati
jedne s drugima.
jedne s drugima.
05:56
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
05:57
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
06:05
Chris Anderson: OK, so when
these things first roll out --
these things first roll out --
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Chris Anderson: OK, kada te
stvari budu lansirane --
stvari budu lansirane --
06:08
right now, it's a single
person aircraft, right?
person aircraft, right?
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sada je to letjelica za
jednu osobu, zar ne?
jednu osobu, zar ne?
Rodin Lyasoff: Naša jest, da.
06:12
Rodin Lyasoff: Ours is, yes.
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06:13
CA: Yours is.
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CA: Vaša jest.
06:14
I mean, someone comes out of their car,
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Mislim, netko izađe iz svog auta,
06:17
the door opens, they get in,
there's no one else in there.
there's no one else in there.
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vrata se otvore, uđu,
nema nikog drugog tamo.
nema nikog drugog tamo.
06:20
This thing takes off.
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Ta stvar poleti.
Možemo li napraviti anketu?
06:22
Could we do a poll here?
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06:23
Because these are
early adopters in this room.
early adopters in this room.
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Jer ovdje su oni koji rano
prihvaćaju inovacije.
prihvaćaju inovacije.
06:25
I want to know who here is excited
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Želim znati tko je uzbuđen idejom
06:28
about the idea of being picked up solo
in an auto-flying --
in an auto-flying --
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da ga pokupe samog u autonomnoj lete --
06:32
Well, there you go!
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Pa, eto ga!
06:34
RL: It's pretty good.
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RL: Dosta dobro.
06:35
CA: That is pretty awesome,
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CA: To je odlično,
06:36
half of TED is completely
stark staring bonkers.
stark staring bonkers.
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pola TED-a je potpuno ludo.
06:39
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:42
RL: So, one of the things
we're really focusing on
we're really focusing on
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RL: Jedna od stvari na koje
smo usredotočeni
smo usredotočeni
06:44
is, really, the cost.
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je, zapravo, trošak.
06:46
So you can really wrap
a business around that.
a business around that.
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Tako da možete izgraditi posao oko toga.
06:48
And so, that's why some of the features
are really driven by price.
are really driven by price.
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I zato su neke od mogućnosti
pokretane cijenom.
pokretane cijenom.
06:52
And the 40-dollar price tag
is really a target that we're aiming for.
is really a target that we're aiming for.
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I cijena od 40 dolara je ono što ciljamo.
06:55
Which should make it accessible
to a larger crowd than this one.
to a larger crowd than this one.
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Što bi to učinilo dostupnijim
većoj grupi od ove.
većoj grupi od ove.
06:59
CA: The biggest blockage
in terms of when this rolls out
in terms of when this rolls out
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CA: Najveća blokada po pitanju
kada će ovo biti pokrenuto
kada će ovo biti pokrenuto
07:03
is probably not the technology
at this point -- it's regulation, right?
at this point -- it's regulation, right?
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vjerojatno nije tehnologija,
već regulacija, zar ne?
već regulacija, zar ne?
07:06
RL: That's probably true, yes,
I would agree with that.
I would agree with that.
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RL: Da, to je vjerojatno istina,
složio bih se s tim.
složio bih se s tim.
07:09
The technology need to mature
in terms of safety,
in terms of safety,
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Tehnologija mora dozrijeti
po pitanju sigurnosti,
po pitanju sigurnosti,
07:12
to get to the safety levels
that we expect from aircraft.
that we expect from aircraft.
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kako bi došla do razina sigurnosti
koje očekujemo od letjelice.
koje očekujemo od letjelice.
07:16
But I don't think there are
any blockers there,
any blockers there,
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Ali mislim da tu ne postoje blokade,
07:18
just work needs to get done.
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samo se mora odraditi posao.
07:19
CA: So, first, this is ride sharing.
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CA: Dakle, ovo je dijeljenje vožnje.
07:21
Are we that far away from a time
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Jesmo li toliko daleko od vremena
07:23
when lots of people have
one of these in their garage
one of these in their garage
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kada će puno ljudi ovo imati
u svojim garažama
u svojim garažama
07:26
and just kind of, go direct
to their friend's house?
to their friend's house?
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i samo otići direktno
do kuće svojih prijatelja?
do kuće svojih prijatelja?
07:29
RL: My personal view is that ride sharing
actually allows you to operate
actually allows you to operate
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RL: Moje osobno viđenje je
da dijeljenje vožnje omogućuje upravljanje
da dijeljenje vožnje omogućuje upravljanje
07:33
that entire business
much more efficiently.
much more efficiently.
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cijelom operacijom puno učinkovitije.
07:37
You know, there are millennials
that say they never want to own a car.
that say they never want to own a car.
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Znate, postoje milenijalci
koji kažu da ne žele nikada imati auto.
koji kažu da ne žele nikada imati auto.
07:40
I think they'll probably feel
even stronger about aircraft.
even stronger about aircraft.
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Mislim da bi imali snažnije osjećaje
ako je u pitanju letjelica.
ako je u pitanju letjelica.
07:43
So --
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Pa --
07:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:46
I really think that the network
scales and operates a lot better
scales and operates a lot better
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Mislim da mreža stvarno bolje radi i raste
07:50
as a ride-sharing platform,
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kao platforma za dijeljenje vožnje,
07:52
also because the integration
with air-traffic management
with air-traffic management
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također i zbog integracije
u upravljanje zračnim prometom
u upravljanje zračnim prometom
07:55
works a lot better
if it's handled centrally.
if it's handled centrally.
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koja radi puno bolje
ako se vodi s jedne točke.
ako se vodi s jedne točke.
07:58
CA: Cool. Thank you for that.
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CA: Odlično. Hvala ti na tome.
08:00
RL: Thank you.
CA: That was amazing.
CA: That was amazing.
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RL: Hvala.
CA: Bilo je odlično.
CA: Bilo je odlično.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rodin Lyasoff - Flight junkieRodin Lyasoff makes improbable objects fly.
Why you should listen
Rodin Lyasoff is the CEO of A³, the advanced projects outpost of Airbus in Silicon Valley. A³ executes a small portfolio of high-risk, time-constrained projects. The mission of A³ is to bring together bright individuals to bravely explore ideas and technologies that will disrupt aerospace. Projects are built on rigorous analysis, fertile partnerships and commitment to unreasonable goals. Before his time at A³, Rodin created and led Project Vahana.
Rodin's career is rooted in building and leading teams and projects that execute effectively in dynamic and uncertain environments. At Rockwell Collins, he designed flight software for a number of platforms including the AAI Shadow, Alenia Sky-X and the NASA Mars Flyer. He was also an early member of Zee.Aero's engineering team and is passionate about making personal flight accessible to all.
Rodin Lyasoff | Speaker | TED.com