TEDSalon Berlin 2014
Rose Goslinga: Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding
Rose Goslinga: Osiguranje usjeva, ideja vrijedna zasađivanja
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Diljem Subsaharske Afrike, mali farmeri osnova su nacionalne i regionalne ekonomije—osim ako vrijeme bude nepredvidivo i njihovi usjevi propadnu. Rješenje je osiguranje, velikog, kontinentalnog razmjera, i po niskim, pristupačnim cijenama. Rose Goslinga, građanka Kenije, i njen tim stvorili su nekonvencionalan način da farmerima čiji usjevi propadnu rano daju drugu priliku za sjetvu.
Rose Goslinga - Microinsurer
Rose Goslinga isn’t your typical insurance salesperson. Through the Syngenta Foundation, her team developed insurance solutions to assist small-scale farmers in Africa, to safeguard their crops in case of droughts. Full bio
Rose Goslinga isn’t your typical insurance salesperson. Through the Syngenta Foundation, her team developed insurance solutions to assist small-scale farmers in Africa, to safeguard their crops in case of droughts. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In Kenya, 1984 is known
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U Keniji, 1984. poznata je
00:15
as the year of the cup,
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kao godina ćupa,
00:18
or the goro goro.
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ili goro goro godina.
00:20
The goro goro is a cup used to measure
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Goro goro je ćup
koji se koristi za mjerenje
koji se koristi za mjerenje
00:23
two kilograms of maize flower on the market,
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dva kilograma kukuruznog brašna na tržnici,
00:26
and the maize flower is used to make ugali,
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i kukuruzno brašno
se koristi za pravljenje ugalija,
se koristi za pravljenje ugalija,
00:30
a polenta-like cake that is eaten
together with vegetables.
together with vegetables.
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kolača od palente koji se jede s povrćem.
00:34
Both the maize and the vegetables are grown
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I kukuruz i povrće su uzgojeni
00:36
on most Kenyan farms,
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na većini kenijskih farmi,
00:38
which means that most families can feed themselves
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što znači da se
većina obitelji može hraniti
većina obitelji može hraniti
00:40
from their own farm.
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s vlastitih farmi.
00:42
One goro goro can feed three meals
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Jedan goro goro dovoljan je za tri obroka
00:46
for an average family,
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prosječne obitelji,
00:48
and in 1984, the whole harvest
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i 1984., cijela žetva
00:51
could fit in one goro goro.
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stala je u jedan goro goro.
00:55
It was and still is one of the worst droughts
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To je bila i još uvijek
jest jedna od najgorih suša
jest jedna od najgorih suša
00:57
in living memory.
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kojih se sjećamo.
01:00
Now today, I insure farmers against droughts
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Danas, osiguravam farmere protiv suša
01:03
like those in the year of the cup,
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poput one u godini ćupa,
01:05
or to be more specific, I insure the rains.
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ili da budem točnija, osiguravam kišu.
01:10
I come from a family of missionaries
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Dolazim iz obitelji misionara
01:13
who built hospitals in Indonesia,
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koji su gradili bolnice u Indoneziji,
01:15
and my father built a psychiatric hospital
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i moj otac izgradio
je psihijatrijsku bolnicu
je psihijatrijsku bolnicu
01:17
in Tanzania.
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u Tanzaniji.
01:18
This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.
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Ovo sam ja,
s pet godina, ispred te bolnice.
s pet godina, ispred te bolnice.
01:21
I don't think they thought I'd grow up
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Mislim da nisu vjerovali da ću odrasti
01:24
to sell insurance. (Laughter)
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da prodajem osiguranje. (Smijeh)
01:27
So let me tell you how that happened.
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Dozvolite da vam kažem kako se to dogodilo.
01:30
In 2008, I was working
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2008. radila sam
01:31
for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,
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za ministarstvo poljoprivrede u Rwandi,
01:34
and my boss had just been promoted
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i moja je šefica upravo bila promaknuta
01:36
to become the minister.
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na mjesto ministrice.
01:37
She launched an ambitious plan
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Lansirala je ambiciozan plan
01:39
to start a green revolution in her country,
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da započne zelenu revoluciju
u svojoj zemlji,
u svojoj zemlji,
01:41
and before we knew it, we were importing
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i prije nego smo se snašli, uvozili smo
01:43
tons of fertilizer and seed
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tone gnojiva i sjemena
01:45
and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer
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i govorili farmerima
kako da koriste to gnojivo
kako da koriste to gnojivo
01:48
and plant.
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i sade.
01:49
A couple of weeks later,
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Nekoliko tjedana kasnije,
01:51
the International Monetary Fund visited us,
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posjetio nas je Međunarodni monetarni fond
01:54
and asked my minister,
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i pitao moju ministricu,
01:56
"Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers
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"Ministrice, divno je
što želite pomoći farmerima
što želite pomoći farmerima
01:58
reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"
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da pribave sigurnost u hrani,
ali što ako ne pada kiša?"
ali što ako ne pada kiša?"
02:03
My minister answered proudly
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Moja ministrica ponosno je odgovorila
02:05
and somewhat defiantly,
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i pomalo prkosno,
02:07
"I am going to pray for rain."
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"Molit ću se za kišu."
02:11
That ended the discussion.
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To je završilo raspravu.
02:15
On the way back to the ministry in the car,
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Na povratku u ministarstvo u autu,
02:17
she turned around to me and said,
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okrenula se prema meni i rekla,
02:19
"Rose, you've always been interested in finance.
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"Rose, tebe su uvijek zanimale financije.
02:21
Go find us some insurance."
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Nađi nam osiguranje."
02:24
It's been six years since,
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Od tada je prošlo šest godina,
02:26
and last year I was fortunate enough
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i prošle godine imala sam sreće
02:28
to be part of a team that insured
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postati dio tima koji je osigurao
02:30
over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda
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preko 185,000 farmera u Keniji i Rwandi
02:33
against drought.
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protiv suše.
02:35
They owned an average of half an acre
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Posjedovali su u prosjeku pola hektara
02:37
and paid on average two Euros in premium.
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i platili premiju od dva eura u prosjeku.
02:41
It's microinsurance.
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To je mikroosiguranje.
02:43
Now, traditional insurance doesn't work
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Sad, tradicionalno osiguranje ne radi
02:45
with two to three Euros of premium,
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s premijama od dva do tri eura,
02:47
because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.
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jer se tradicionalno osiguranje
oslanja na posjete farmama.
oslanja na posjete farmama.
02:50
A farmer here in Germany would be visited
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Farmer u Njemačkoj bio bi posjećen
02:52
for the start of the season, halfway through,
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na početku sezone, na pola,
02:55
and at the end, and again if there was a loss,
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i na kraju, i ponovno ako bi bilo gubitka,
02:57
to estimate the damages.
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kako bi se procijenila šteta.
03:00
For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,
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Za malog farmera usred Afrike,
03:04
the maths of doing those visits
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matematika obavljanja tih posjeta
03:05
simply don't add up.
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jednostavno nije vrijedila.
03:09
So instead, we rely on technology and data.
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Umjesto toga,
oslanjamo se na tehnologiju i podatke.
oslanjamo se na tehnologiju i podatke.
03:12
This satellite measures
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Ovaj satelit mjeri
03:15
whether there were clouds or not,
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je li bilo oblaka ili ne,
03:17
because think about it:
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jer razmislite:
03:18
If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,
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ako ima oblaka, možda će biti kiše,
03:23
but if there are no clouds,
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ali ako nema oblaka,
03:24
then it's actually impossible for it to rain.
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onda je nemoguće da pada kiša.
03:27
These images show the onset of the rains
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Ove slike pokazuju početak kiša
03:29
this season in Kenya.
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ove sezone u Keniji.
03:31
You see that around March 6,
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Vidite da se oko 6. ožujka
03:33
the clouds move in and then disappear,
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oblaci miču i nestaju,
03:36
and then around the March 11,
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i zatim, oko 11. ožujka,
03:38
the clouds really move in.
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oblaci stvarno dolaze.
03:42
That, and those clouds,
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To, i ovi oblaci,
03:45
were the onset of the rains this year.
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bili su početak kiša ove godine.
03:48
This satellite covers the whole of Africa
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Ovaj satelit pokriva cijelu Afriku
03:50
and goes back as far as 1984,
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i datira unatrag do 1984.,
03:53
and that's important, because if you know
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i to je važno, jer ako znate
03:55
how many times a place has had a drought
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koliko puta je neko mjesto imalo sušu
03:58
in the last 30 years,
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u posljednjih 30 godina,
04:00
you can make a pretty good estimate
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možete dobro procijeniti
04:02
what the chances are of drought in the future,
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koje su šanse za sušu u budućnosti,
04:04
and that means that you can put a price tag
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i onda možete staviti cijenu
04:07
on the risk of drought.
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na rizik suše.
04:09
The data alone isn't enough.
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Sami podaci nisu dovoljni.
04:12
We devise agronomic algorithms
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Stvaramo agronomske algoritme
04:14
which tell us how much rainfall
a crop needs and when.
a crop needs and when.
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koji nam govore koliko
kiše usjev treba i kada.
kiše usjev treba i kada.
04:18
For example, for maize at planting,
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Na primjer, za sjetvu kukuruza,
04:20
you need to have two days of rain
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trebate dva dana kiše
04:23
for farmers to plant,
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kako bi farmeri sadili,
04:25
and then it needs to rain once every two weeks
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i onda treba padati kiša
jednom u dva tjedna
jednom u dva tjedna
04:27
for the crop to properly germinate.
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kako bi usjev proklijao.
04:29
After that, you need rain every three weeks
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Nakon toga trebate kišu svaka tri tjedna
04:32
for the crop to form its leaves,
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da bi se formirali listovi,
04:35
whereas at flowering, you
need it to rain more frequently,
need it to rain more frequently,
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gdje za cvjetanje trebati kišu češće,
04:38
about once every 10 days
for the crop to form its cob.
for the crop to form its cob.
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otprilike jednom u 10 dana
kako bi se formirao klip.
kako bi se formirao klip.
04:42
At the end of the season,
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Na kraju sezone,
04:44
you actually don't want it to rain,
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zapravo ne želite da kiši,
04:46
because rains then can damage the crop.
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jer kiša tada može oštetiti usjev.
04:49
Devising such a cover is difficult,
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Osmisliti takvo pokrivanje je teško,
04:53
but it turned out the real challenge
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ali ispalo je da je pravi izazov
04:55
was selling insurance.
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prodati osiguranje.
04:59
We set ourselves a modest target
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Postavili smo si skromne ciljeve
05:02
of 500 farmers insured after our first season.
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od 500 farmera osiguranih
nakon prve sezone.
nakon prve sezone.
05:06
After a couple of months' intense marketing,
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Nakon nekoliko mjeseci
intenzivnog marketinga,
intenzivnog marketinga,
05:08
we had signed up the grand total
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pridružilo nam se ukupno
05:10
of 185 farmers.
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185 farmera.
05:14
I was disappointed and confounded.
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Bila sam razočarana i zbunjena.
05:17
Everybody kept telling me that farmers
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Svi su mi govorili da farmeri
05:18
wanted insurance,
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žele osiguranje,
05:21
but our prime customers simply weren't buying.
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ali naše najvažnije mušterije nisu kupovale.
05:24
They were waiting to see what would happen,
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Čekali su da vide što će se dogoditi,
05:26
didn't trust insurance companies,
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nisu vjerovali osiguravajućim kućama,
05:29
or thought, "I've managed for so many years.
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ili su mislili, "Uspijevao sam tolike godine.
05:31
Why would I buy insurance now?"
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Što će mi sada osiguranje?"
05:35
Now many of you know microcredit,
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Puno vas zna za mikrokredite,
05:38
the method of providing small loans to poor people
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metodu davanja malih pozajmica siromašnima
05:41
pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,
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koje je pokrenuo Muhammad Yunus,
05:43
who won the Nobel Peace Prize
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koji je osvojio Nobelovu nagradu za mir
05:45
for his work with the Grameen Bank.
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za rad sa Grameen Bankom.
05:47
Turns out, selling microcredit
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Ispada da prodaja mikrokredita
05:49
isn't the same as selling insurance.
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nije ista kao prodaja osiguranja.
05:53
For credit, a farmer needs
to earn the trust of a bank,
to earn the trust of a bank,
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Za kredit, farmer mora
pridobiti povjerenje banke,
pridobiti povjerenje banke,
05:57
and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.
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i ako uspije, banka će mu dati novac.
06:00
That's an attractive proposition.
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To je privlačna propozicija.
06:03
For insurance, the farmer needs to trust
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Za osiguranje, farmer mora vjerovati
06:06
the insurance company, and needs
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osiguravajućoj kući, i treba
06:07
to advance the insurance company money.
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dati novac osiguravajućoj kući.
06:11
It's a very different value proposition.
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To je vrlo drugačija
propozicija vrijednosti.
propozicija vrijednosti.
06:14
And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,
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Tako da je porast osiguranja bio spor,
06:17
with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans
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za sada s 4.4. posto Afrikanaca
06:19
taking up insurance in 2012,
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koji su uzeli osiguranje u 2012.,
06:22
and half of that number is in one country,
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i pola tog broja je u jednoj zemlji,
06:24
South Africa.
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Južnoj Africi.
06:26
We tried for some years
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Pokušavali smo kroz nekoliko godina
06:27
selling insurance directly to farmers,
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prodavati osiguranje izravno farmerima
06:30
with very high marketing cost
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s visokim troškovima marketinga
06:32
and very limited success.
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i ograničenim uspjehom.
06:35
Then we realized that there were many organizations
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Onda smo shvatili da postoji puno organizacija
06:37
working with farmers:
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koje rade s farmerima:
06:40
seed companies, microfinance institutions,
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seed tvrtke, mikrofinancijske institucije,
06:43
mobile phone companies,
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mobilni operateri,
06:45
government agencies.
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vladine agencije.
06:46
They were all providing loans to farmers,
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Oni su svi davali pozajmice farmerima
06:49
and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,
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i često, taman prije dovršetka pozajmice,
06:52
the farmer would say,
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farmer bi rekao,
06:54
"But what if it doesn't rain?
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"Ali što ako ne kiši?
06:56
How do you expect me to repay my loan?"
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Kako očekujete da ću vam vratiti zajam?"
06:59
Many of these organizations
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Mnoge od ovih organizacija
07:02
were taking on the risk themselves,
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preuzimale su rizik na sebe,
07:03
simply hoping that that year,
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nadajući se da se te godine,
07:05
the worst wouldn't happen.
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neće dogoditi najgore.
07:07
Most of the organizations, however,
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Većina organizacija, ipak,
07:09
were limiting their growth in agriculture.
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ograničavala je svoj rast u poljoprivredi.
07:12
They couldn't take on this kind of risk.
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Nisu mogli podnijeti takav rizik.
07:14
These organizations became our customers,
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Ove organizacije postale su naše mušterije,
07:18
and when combining credit and insurance,
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i kada kombiniramo kredite i osiguranje,
07:21
interesting things can happen.
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zanimljive stvari mogu se dogoditi.
07:24
Let me tell you one more story.
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Dozvolite da vam ispričam još jednu priču.
07:28
At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,
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Početkom veljače 2012. u zapadnoj Keniji,
07:31
the rains started, and they started early,
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kiše su počele, i počele su rano,
07:34
and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,
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i kada kiše počnu rano, farmere potiču,
07:37
because it usually means that
the season is going to be good.
the season is going to be good.
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jer to većinom
znači da će sezona biti dobra.
znači da će sezona biti dobra.
07:41
So they took out loans and planted.
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Tako da su uzeli pozajmice i sadili.
07:44
For the next three weeks,
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Sljedeća tri tjedna,
07:45
there wasn't a single drop of rain,
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nije bilo jedne kapi kiše,
07:48
and the crops that had germinated so well
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i usjevi koji su proklijali tako dobro
07:50
shriveled and died.
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smežurali su se i umrli.
07:53
We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution
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Osigurali smo pozajmice
mikrofinancijske institucije
mikrofinancijske institucije
07:56
that had provided those loans
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koja daje te pozajmice za
07:57
to about 6,000 farmers in that area,
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otprilike 6,000 farmera u tom području,
08:01
and we called them up and said,
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i nazvali smo ih i rekli,
08:02
"Look, we know about the drought.
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"Gledajte, znamo za sušu.
08:04
We've got you.
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Pokrit ćemo vas.
08:06
We'll give you 200,000 Euros
at the end of the season."
at the end of the season."
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Dat ćemo vam 200,000 eura
na kraju sezone."
na kraju sezone."
08:10
They said, "Wow, that's great,
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Rekli su, "Wow, to je odlično,
08:12
but that'll be late.
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no to će biti kasno.
08:14
Could you give us the money now?
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Možete li nam sada dati novac?
08:16
Then these farmers can still replant
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Tako da ovi farmeri mogu ponovno saditi
08:18
and can get a harvest this season."
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i imati žetvu ove sezone."
08:22
So we convinced our insurance partners,
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Tako da smo uvjerili naše osiguravajuće partnere,
08:24
and later that April, these farmers replanted.
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i kasnije tog travnja,
ovi farmeri su ponovno sadili.
ovi farmeri su ponovno sadili.
08:27
We took the idea of replanting to a seed company
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Odnijeli smo ideju ponovnog sađenja tvrtci
koja se bavi prodajom sjemena
koja se bavi prodajom sjemena
08:30
and convinced them to price the cost of insurance
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i uvjerili ih da cijenu osiguranja
08:32
into every bag of seed,
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uključe u svaku vreću sjemena,
08:34
and in every bag, we packed a card
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i u svakoj vreći bila je upakirana kartica
08:36
that had a number on it,
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koja je imala broj,
08:38
and when the farmers would open the card,
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i kada bi je farmeri otvorili,
08:40
they'd text in that number,
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poslali bi poruku s tim brojem,
08:42
and that number would actually help us
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i taj broj nam je pomogao
08:43
to locate the farmer
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locirati farmera
08:45
and allocate them to a satellite pixel.
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i pridružiti im piksel satelita.
08:48
A satellite would then measure the rainfall
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Potom bi satelit mjerio kišu
08:50
for the next three weeks,
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sljedeća tri tjedna,
08:52
and if it didn't rain,
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i ako ne bi kišilo,
08:54
we'd replace their seed.
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zamijenili bi im sjeme.
08:57
One of the first —
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Jedan od prvih —
08:58
(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!
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(Pljesak) — Pričekajte, nije gotovo!
09:04
One of the first beneficiaries
of this replanting guarantee
of this replanting guarantee
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Jedan od prvih primatelja
ove garancije ponovne sadnje
ove garancije ponovne sadnje
09:07
was Bosco Mwinyi.
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bio je Bosco Mwinyi.
09:09
We visited his farm later that August,
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Posjetili smo njegovu farmu kasnije u kolovozu,
09:12
and I wish I could show you the smile on his face
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i željela bih da vam mogu
pokazati osmjeh na njegovom licu
pokazati osmjeh na njegovom licu
09:15
when he showed us his harvest,
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kada nam je pokazao svoju žetvu,
09:18
because it warmed my heart
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jer je to zagrijalo moje srce
09:19
and it made me realize why selling insurance
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i pomoglo mi shvatiti
zašto prodaja osiguranja
zašto prodaja osiguranja
09:21
can be a good thing.
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može biti dobra stvar.
09:24
But you know, he insisted
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Ali znate, on je inzistirao
09:25
that we get his whole harvest in the picture,
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da uslikamo cijelu žetvu,
09:28
so we had to zoom out a lot.
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tako da smo se morali dosta udaljiti.
09:32
Insurance secured his harvest that season,
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Osiguranje mu je omogućilo žetvu te sezone,
09:35
and I believe that today,
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i vjerujem da danas,
09:38
we have all the tools to enable African farmers
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imamo sve alate
da afričkim farmerima omogućimo
da afričkim farmerima omogućimo
09:41
to take control of their own destiny.
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da preuzmu vlastitu sudbinu.
09:44
No more years of the cup.
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Nema više godina ćupa.
09:45
Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,
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Umjesto toga, veselim se, na neki način,
09:49
the year of the insurance,
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godini osiguranja,
09:51
or the year of the great harvest.
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ili godini odlične žetve.
09:54
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
09:57
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rose Goslinga - MicroinsurerRose Goslinga isn’t your typical insurance salesperson. Through the Syngenta Foundation, her team developed insurance solutions to assist small-scale farmers in Africa, to safeguard their crops in case of droughts.
Why you should listen
Rose Goslinga describes her work as “insuring the rain.” Raised in Tanzania, Goslinga was working for the Rwandan Ministry of Agriculture in 2008 when the minister had a bold idea: could they offer insurance to small farmers to protect them in case rain didn’t come when needed? Goslinga ran with the idea. Under the Syngenta Foundation’s Kilimo Salama program, which is Swahili for “safe farming,” the thought became a reality. Last year, through its local insurance partners, it insured 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda against drought, and was recently spun into a company called ACRE.
Think of microinsurance the way you think of microloans. The average farmer insured in this way has a half-acre farm and pays just two Euros as an annual premium. Rather than using farm visits to determine damages, cloud data determines when payouts are due to farmers. Building this program has taken the Syngenta Foundation six years and has greatly tested their aptitude for creative problem-solving, from figuring out how to get farmers to trust insurance companies to creating technological solutions to help map which farmers are using the product.
Rose Goslinga | Speaker | TED.com