TED2014
Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?
Sir Martin Rees: Možemo li spriječiti kraj svijeta?
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Postapokaliptična Zemlja, bez ljudi, čini se poput nečega iz znanstveno- fantastičnih TV-serija i filmova. Ali u ovom kratkom, iznenađujućem govoru, Lord Martin Rees poziva nas da razmislimo o našim stvarnim egzistencijalnim rizicima - o prirodnim i ljudskim prijetnjama koje bi mogle uništiti čovječanstvo. Kao zabrinut pripadnik ljudskog roda, on pita: Što je najgore što bi se moglo dogoditi?
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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Prije deset godina napisao
sam knjigu koju sam nazvao
sam knjigu koju sam nazvao
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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"Naše posljednje stoljeće?"
Upitnik.
Upitnik.
00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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Moji izdavači izbacili su upitnik.
(Smijeh)
(Smijeh)
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
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Američki izdavači promijenili su naslov
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
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u "Naš posljednji sat."
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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Amerikanci žele trenutno
zadovoljenje i obrnuto.
zadovoljenje i obrnuto.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:32
And my theme was this:
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Moja tema je bila:
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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Naša Zemlja postoji
45 milijuna stoljeća,
45 milijuna stoljeća,
00:38
but this one is special —
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ali ovo stoljeće je posebno.
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
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Ono je prvo u kojemu
jedna vrsta, naša,
jedna vrsta, naša,
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
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drži budućnost planeta
u svojim rukama.
u svojim rukama.
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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Kroz čitavu Zemljinu povijest,
00:48
threats have come from nature —
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prijetnje su dolazile iz prirode.
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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Bolesti, potresi, asteroidi i tako dalje...
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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Ali odsad nadalje, najveće
opasnosti dolaze od nas.
opasnosti dolaze od nas.
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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I više to nije samo nuklearna prijetnja.
01:02
in our interconnected world,
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U našem međupovezanom svijetu
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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mrežni se kvarovi mogu širiti globalno:
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days;
worldwide within days;
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zračni promet može proširiti pandemije
cijelim svijetom u nekoliko dana,
cijelim svijetom u nekoliko dana,
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
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a društvenim se mrežama
panika i glasine mogu proširiti
panika i glasine mogu proširiti
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
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doslovno brzinom svjetlosti.
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
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Previše se brinemo
zbog malih opasnosti -
zbog malih opasnosti -
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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malo vjerojatnih zrakoplovnih udesa,
kancerogenih tvari u hrani,
kancerogenih tvari u hrani,
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
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niskih doza radijacije,
i tako dalje...
i tako dalje...
01:27
but we and our political masters
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Ali, mi i naši politički gospodari
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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u zabludi smo u vezi s
katastrofičnim scenarijima.
katastrofičnim scenarijima.
01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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Najgori se, srećom,
još nisu dogodili.
još nisu dogodili.
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
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I vjerojatno se neće ni dogoditi.
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
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Ali, ako je događaj
potencijalno razoran,
potencijalno razoran,
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
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vrijedi platiti značajnu premiju
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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kako bismo se osigurali od njega,
čak i ako nije izgledan,
čak i ako nije izgledan,
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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baš kako se osiguravamo
protiv požara u kući.
protiv požara u kući.
01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
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Kako znanost nudi
sve više moći i obećanja,
sve više moći i obećanja,
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
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i naličje postaje sve strašnije.
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
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Postajemo sve ranjiviji.
02:05
Within a few decades,
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Unutar nekoliko desetljeća,
02:06
millions will have the capability
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milijuni će imati mogućnost
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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zlorabiti brzo
napredujuću biotehnologiju,
napredujuću biotehnologiju,
02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
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kao što danas zlorabe
cyber-tehnologiju.
cyber-tehnologiju.
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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Freeman Dyson,
u svom govoru na TED-u,
u svom govoru na TED-u,
02:19
foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms
and create new organisms
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predvidio je da će djeca rutinski
dizajnirati i kreirati nove organizme
dizajnirati i kreirati nove organizme
02:22
just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets.
played with chemistry sets.
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kao što se njegova generacija
igrala s priborom za kemiju.
igrala s priborom za kemiju.
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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Ovo možda graniči sa
znanstvenom fantastikom,
znanstvenom fantastikom,
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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ali obistini li se i djelić njegova scenarija,
02:32
our ecology and even our species
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naš odnos prema okolišu
i sama naša vrsta
i sama naša vrsta
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
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zasigurno ne bi dugo preživjeli neokrznuti.
02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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Na primjer, postoje eko-ekstremisti
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
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koji misle da bi za planet,
za Geu, bilo bolje,
za Geu, bilo bolje,
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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kad bi bilo mnogo manje ljudi.
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
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Što će se dogoditi
kad takvi ljudi ovladaju
kad takvi ljudi ovladaju
02:52
synthetic biology techniques
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tehnikama sintetičke biologije
02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
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koja će se proširiti do 2050.?
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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A dotad, druge znanstveno-
fantastične noćne more
fantastične noćne more
03:00
may transition to reality:
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mogle bi postati stvarnost:
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
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pobuna glupih robota,
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
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ili mreža koja se otme našoj kontroli,
03:06
threatens us all.
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svima nam prijete.
03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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Možemo li se propisima
sačuvati od takvih rizika?
sačuvati od takvih rizika?
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
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Svakako trebamo pokušati,
ali ti su pothvati
ali ti su pothvati
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
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silno natjecateljski, silno globalizirani,
03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
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i toliko pokretani komercijalnim pritiskom,
03:20
that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere,
will be done somewhere,
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da će što god bude moguće
učiniti negdje i biti učinjeno,
učiniti negdje i biti učinjeno,
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
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neovisno o ikakvim propisima.
03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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Poput zakona o drogama -
pokušavamo urediti, ali ne uspijevamo.
pokušavamo urediti, ali ne uspijevamo.
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
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Globalno selo imat će
svoje seoske idiote,
svoje seoske idiote,
03:31
and they'll have a global range.
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i oni će imati globalni utjecaj.
03:35
So as I said in my book,
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Kao što sam i rekao u svojoj knjizi,
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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bit će to grbava vožnja
kroz ovo stoljeće.
kroz ovo stoljeće.
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
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Naše će društvo nailaziti na zapreke -
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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doista, 50%-tna je vjerojatnost
ozbiljnog pogoršanja.
ozbiljnog pogoršanja.
03:48
But are there conceivable events
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No, možemo li zamisliti događaje
03:51
that could be even worse,
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koji bi mogli biti i gori,
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
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koji bi mogli izbrisati sav život?
03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
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Kad je prvi put upotrijebljen
novi akcelerator čestica,
novi akcelerator čestica,
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
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neki su se ljudi zabrinuto pitali
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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može li on uništiti Zemlju ili, još gore,
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
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pokidati samo tkivo svemira?
04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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Srećom, mogu vas utješiti.
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
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Ja i drugi istaknuli smo da je priroda
04:11
has done the same experiments
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iste eksperimente izvela
04:13
zillions of times already,
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bezbroj puta dosad -
04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
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sudaranjem kozmičkih zraka.
04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
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Ali, znanstvenici bi trebali biti oprezni
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
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s eksperimentima kojima stvaraju uvjete
04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
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kakvi nisu u prirodi viđeni.
04:25
Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating
of potentially devastating
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Biolozi bi trebali izbjegavati
ispuštanje potencijalno razornih
ispuštanje potencijalno razornih
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
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genetski modificiranih patogena.
04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
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Usput, naša osobita odbojnost
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
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prema rizičnosti stvarnih
egzistencijalnih katastrofa
egzistencijalnih katastrofa
04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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ovisi o filozofskom i etičkom pitanju,
04:42
and it's this:
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a ono je sljedeće...
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
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Sagledajte dva scenarija.
04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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Scenarij A uništava 90 posto čovječanstva.
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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Scenarij B uništava 100 posto.
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
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Koliko je B gore od A?
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
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Neki bi rekli da je 10 posto gori.
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
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Broj mrtvih je 10 posto viši.
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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Ja tvrdim da je B neusporedivo gori.
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
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Kao astronom, ne mogu vjerovati
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
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da su ljudi kraj priče.
05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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Imamo pet milijardi godina
prije nego sunce izgori,
prije nego sunce izgori,
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
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i svemir će možda nastaviti zauvijek postojati.
05:18
so post-human evolution,
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Evolucija nakon ljudi,
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
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ovdje na Zemlji i daleko izvan nje,
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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mogla bi biti duga koliko i darvinovski proces
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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koji je doveo do nas, a možda i čudesniji.
05:29
And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster,
will happen much faster,
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Buduće će se evolucije
zaista zbivati puno brže,
zaista zbivati puno brže,
05:31
on a technological timescale,
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gledajući tehnološku vremensku crtu,
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
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ne onu prirodne selekcije.
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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Tako da zasigurno,
gledajući te ogromne uloge,
gledajući te ogromne uloge,
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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ne bismo trebali prihvatiti
ni rizik od jedan naprema milijardu
ni rizik od jedan naprema milijardu
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
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da će ljudsko izumiranje spriječiti
05:46
this immense potential.
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ovaj ogroman potencijal.
05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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Neka predviđanja
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
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doista mogu biti znanstvena fantastika,
05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
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ali druga mogu biti uznemirujuće realna.
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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Važna je maksima da nepoznato
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
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nije isto što i nevjerojatno.
06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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Upravo zato mi na Sveučilištu Cambridge
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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ustanovljujemo centar u kojemu
ćemo proučavati kako ublažiti
ćemo proučavati kako ublažiti
06:06
these existential risks.
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ove egzistencijalne rizike.
06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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Čini se da samo nekolicina ljudi smatra vrijednim
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
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razmišljati o ovim potencijalnim katastrofama,
06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
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i trebamo svu pomoć
koju možemo dobiti od drugih.
koju možemo dobiti od drugih.
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
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Mi upravljamo ovom dragocjenom
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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blijedoplavom točkom
u nepreglednom kozmosu,
u nepreglednom kozmosu,
06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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planetom s 50 milijuna
stoljeća pred sobom.
stoljeća pred sobom.
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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Zato nemojmo ugroziti tu budućnost.
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
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Završio bih s citatom
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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velikog znanstvenika, Petera Medawara:
06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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"Zvona koja zvone za čovječanstvo
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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poput su zvona alpskih goveda.
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
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Pričvršćena su za naše vratove,
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
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i naša je krivnja ako ne stvore
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
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pjevan i melodičan zvuk."
06:47
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam puno.
06:49
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com