TED2014
Martin Rees: Can we prevent the end of the world?
Ser Martin Ris (Sir Martin Rees): Možemo li da sprečimo kraj sveta?
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Postapokaliptična Zemlja bez ljudi, zvuči kao nešto iz naučnofantastičnih TV serija i filmova. Ali u ovom kratkom, iznenađujućem govoru, Lord Martin Ris nas moli da razmislimo o našim pravim egzistencijalnim rizicima. To su prirodne i ljudske pretnje koje bi mogle da zbrišu čovečanstvo. Kao zabrinuti pripadnik ljudske rase, on se pita: šta je najgore što može da se desi?
Martin Rees - Astrophysicist
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Lord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Ten years ago, I wrote a book which I entitled
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Pre deset godina, napisao sam knjigu
koju sam nazvao
koju sam nazvao
00:14
"Our Final Century?" Question mark.
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"Naš poslednji vek?" sa znakom pitanja.
00:17
My publishers cut out the question mark. (Laughter)
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Moji izdavači su izbacili upitnik.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
00:21
The American publishers changed our title
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Američki izdavači su promenili naslov
00:23
to "Our Final Hour."
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u "Naš poslednji čas".
00:27
Americans like instant gratification and the reverse.
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Amerikanci vole
trenutno zadovoljavanje i obrnuto.
trenutno zadovoljavanje i obrnuto.
00:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
00:32
And my theme was this:
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Moja tema je bila ovo:
00:34
Our Earth has existed for 45 million centuries,
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naša Zemlja postoji 45 miliona vekova,
00:38
but this one is special —
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ali ovaj je poseban -
00:40
it's the first where one species, ours,
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to je prvi gde jedna vrsta, naša,
00:43
has the planet's future in its hands.
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drži budućnost planete u svojim rukama.
00:46
Over nearly all of Earth's history,
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Tokom skoro cele istorije Zemlje,
00:48
threats have come from nature —
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pretnju je predstavljala priroda -
00:50
disease, earthquakes, asteroids and so forth —
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zaraze, zemljotresi, asteroidi i drugo -
00:53
but from now on, the worst dangers come from us.
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ali od sada, mi predstavljamo
najveću opasnost.
najveću opasnost.
00:59
And it's now not just the nuclear threat;
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To sada nije samo nuklearna pretnja -
01:02
in our interconnected world,
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u našem povezanom svetu,
01:04
network breakdowns can cascade globally;
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pad mreže može
da se manifestuje globalno,
da se manifestuje globalno,
01:07
air travel can spread pandemics
worldwide within days;
worldwide within days;
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avionski letovi mogu da rašire epidemije
širom sveta za nekoliko dana,
širom sveta za nekoliko dana,
01:11
and social media can spread panic and rumor
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a društveni mediji
mogu da šire paniku i glasine
mogu da šire paniku i glasine
01:14
literally at the speed of light.
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bukvalno brzinom svetlosti.
01:17
We fret too much about minor hazards —
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Previše strahujemo oko manjih pretnji -
01:21
improbable air crashes, carcinogens in food,
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neverovatnih sudara u letu,
karcinogena u hrani,
karcinogena u hrani,
01:25
low radiation doses, and so forth —
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malih doza radijacije i tako dalje -
01:27
but we and our political masters
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ali mi i naši politički gospodari
01:30
are in denial about catastrophic scenarios.
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živimo u poricanju
oko katastrofalnih scenarija.
oko katastrofalnih scenarija.
01:34
The worst have thankfully not yet happened.
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Na sreću, najgori se još nisu desili.
01:37
Indeed, they probably won't.
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Zaista, verovatno ni neće.
01:39
But if an event is potentially devastating,
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Ali ako je događaj
potencijalno razarajući,
potencijalno razarajući,
01:42
it's worth paying a substantial premium
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vredi platiti značajno osiguranje
01:45
to safeguard against it, even if it's unlikely,
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da se od njega zaštitite,
čak i ako nije verovatan,
čak i ako nije verovatan,
01:49
just as we take out fire insurance on our house.
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kao što osiguravamo kuće protiv požara.
01:54
And as science offers greater power and promise,
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A kako nauka nudi
sve veću moć i obećanja,
sve veću moć i obećanja,
01:59
the downside gets scarier too.
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loša strana takođe postaje sve strašnija.
02:02
We get ever more vulnerable.
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Postajemo sve ranjiviji.
02:05
Within a few decades,
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Kroz nekoliko decenija,
02:06
millions will have the capability
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milioni će imati mogućnost
02:09
to misuse rapidly advancing biotech,
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zloupotrebe biotehnologije
koja se brzo razvija,
koja se brzo razvija,
02:12
just as they misuse cybertech today.
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isto kao što danas
zloupotrebljavaju sajber tehnologiju.
zloupotrebljavaju sajber tehnologiju.
02:15
Freeman Dyson, in a TED Talk,
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U TED govoru, Friman Dajson
02:19
foresaw that children will design
and create new organisms
and create new organisms
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je predvideo da će deca dizajnirati
i stvarati nove organizme
i stvarati nove organizme
02:22
just as routinely as his generation
played with chemistry sets.
played with chemistry sets.
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rutinski kao što se njegova generacija
igrala kompletima za hemiju.
igrala kompletima za hemiju.
02:27
Well, this may be on the science fiction fringe,
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Ovo je možda na ivici naučne fantastike,
02:29
but were even part of his scenario to come about,
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ali ukoliko se obistini
samo deo njegovog scenarija,
samo deo njegovog scenarija,
02:32
our ecology and even our species
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naša ekologija i čak i naša vrsta
02:35
would surely not survive long unscathed.
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ne bi dugo preživele nedirnute.
02:39
For instance, there are some eco-extremists
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Na primer, postoje neki eko-ekstremisti
02:43
who think that it would be better for the planet,
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koji misle da bi bilo bolje za planetu,
02:45
for Gaia, if there were far fewer humans.
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za Gaju, da postoji mnogo manje ljudi.
02:49
What happens when such people have mastered
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Šta bi se desilo
kada bi takvi ljudi ovladali
kada bi takvi ljudi ovladali
02:52
synthetic biology techniques
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tehnikama sintetičke biologije
02:54
that will be widespread by 2050?
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koje će biti sveprisutne do 2050?
02:57
And by then, other science fiction nightmares
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Do tada, drugi košmari
iz naučne fantastike
iz naučne fantastike
03:00
may transition to reality:
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možda postanu stvarnost:
03:01
dumb robots going rogue,
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glupi roboti koji podivljaju
03:03
or a network that develops a mind of its own
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ili mreža koja počne sama da misli
03:06
threatens us all.
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i preti svima nama.
03:08
Well, can we guard against such risks by regulation?
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Možemo li se regulisanjem braniti
od takvih rizika?
od takvih rizika?
03:12
We must surely try, but these enterprises
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Sigurno moramo pokušati,
ali ova preduzeća
ali ova preduzeća
03:14
are so competitive, so globalized,
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su toliko takmičarski nastrojena,
toliko globalizovana
toliko globalizovana
03:18
and so driven by commercial pressure,
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i vođena komercijalnim pritiskom
03:20
that anything that can be done
will be done somewhere,
will be done somewhere,
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da će sve što može da bude urađeno
biti urađeno negde,
biti urađeno negde,
03:23
whatever the regulations say.
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bez obzira na pravila.
03:25
It's like the drug laws — we try to regulate, but can't.
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To je poput zakona o drogama -
pokušavamo da regulišemo, ali ne možemo.
pokušavamo da regulišemo, ali ne možemo.
03:28
And the global village will have its village idiots,
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Globalno selo će imati
svoje seoske idiote,
svoje seoske idiote,
03:31
and they'll have a global range.
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a oni će imati globalni opseg.
03:35
So as I said in my book,
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Kao što sam rekao u svojoj knjizi,
03:37
we'll have a bumpy ride through this century.
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čeka nas nezgodna vožnja kroz ovaj vek.
03:40
There may be setbacks to our society —
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Možda će biti prepreka za naše društvo -
03:44
indeed, a 50 percent chance of a severe setback.
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zaista, šanse za veliku prepreku su 50%.
03:48
But are there conceivable events
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Ali da li postoje zamislivi događaji
03:51
that could be even worse,
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koji bi mogli biti još gori,
03:53
events that could snuff out all life?
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događaji koji bi ugasili sav život?
03:56
When a new particle accelerator came online,
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Kada se na internetu pojavio
novi akcelerator čestica,
novi akcelerator čestica,
03:59
some people anxiously asked,
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neki ljudi su se nervozno upitali
04:01
could it destroy the Earth or, even worse,
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da li bi mogao da uništi Zemlju,
04:03
rip apart the fabric of space?
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ili još gore, razori materiju svemira?
04:06
Well luckily, reassurance could be offered.
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Na sreću, postoji uteha.
04:09
I and others pointed out that nature
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Ja i drugi smo istakli da je priroda
04:11
has done the same experiments
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izvodila iste eksperimente
04:13
zillions of times already,
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već nebrojeno puta,
04:16
via cosmic ray collisions.
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preko sudara kosmičkih zraka.
04:17
But scientists should surely be precautionary
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Ali naučnici bi svakako trebalo da paze
04:20
about experiments that generate conditions
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na eksperimente koji stvaraju uslove
04:23
without precedent in the natural world.
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bez presedana u prirodnom svetu.
04:25
Biologists should avoid release
of potentially devastating
of potentially devastating
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Biolozi bi trebalo da izbegavaju
puštanje potencijalno razarajućih
puštanje potencijalno razarajućih
04:29
genetically modified pathogens.
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genetski modifikovanih patogena.
04:32
And by the way, our special aversion
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Usput, naša naročita averzija
04:35
to the risk of truly existential disasters
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prema riziku od zaista
egzistencijalnih katastrofa
egzistencijalnih katastrofa
04:39
depends on a philosophical and ethical question,
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zavisi od filozofskog i etičkog pitanja,
04:42
and it's this:
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a to je sledeće.
04:44
Consider two scenarios.
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Zamislite dva scenarija.
04:46
Scenario A wipes out 90 percent of humanity.
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Prvi scenario će zbrisati 90% čovečanstva.
04:51
Scenario B wipes out 100 percent.
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Drugi će zbrisati 100%.
04:55
How much worse is B than A?
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Koliko je drugi gori od prvog?
04:58
Some would say 10 percent worse.
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Neki bi rekli 10% gori.
05:01
The body count is 10 percent higher.
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Broj mrtvih je 10% veći.
05:04
But I claim that B is incomparably worse.
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Ali ja mislim
da je drugi nemerljivo gori.
da je drugi nemerljivo gori.
05:07
As an astronomer, I can't believe
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Kao astronom, ne mogu da verujem
05:10
that humans are the end of the story.
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da su ljudi kraj priče.
05:12
It is five billion years before the sun flares up,
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Ima pet milijardi godina
pre nego što se Sunce zapali
pre nego što se Sunce zapali
05:15
and the universe may go on forever,
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i univerzum se možda zauvek nastavi,
05:18
so post-human evolution,
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dakle post-ljudska evolucija,
05:20
here on Earth and far beyond,
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na Zemlji i dalje od nje,
05:23
could be as prolonged as the Darwinian process
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može da se produži kao i Darvinov proces
05:25
that's led to us, and even more wonderful.
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koji je doveo do nas, i da bude još lepša.
05:29
And indeed, future evolution
will happen much faster,
will happen much faster,
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Evolucija u budućnosti će se zaista
dešavati mnogo brže
dešavati mnogo brže
05:31
on a technological timescale,
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na tehnološkoj skali,
05:33
not a natural selection timescale.
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ne na skali prirodne selekcije.
05:36
So we surely, in view of those immense stakes,
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U svetlu tih ogromnih rizika,
05:40
shouldn't accept even a one in a billion risk
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sigurno ne bi trebalo da prihvatimo
ni rizik jednog u milijardu
ni rizik jednog u milijardu
05:43
that human extinction would foreclose
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da bi istrebljenje ljudi moglo da prekine
05:46
this immense potential.
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ovaj ogromni potencijal.
05:48
Some scenarios that have been envisaged
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Neki scenariji koji su zamišljeni
05:50
may indeed be science fiction,
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zaista mogu da budu naučna fantastika,
05:51
but others may be disquietingly real.
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ali drugi mogu da budu
razočaravajuće realni.
razočaravajuće realni.
05:55
It's an important maxim that the unfamiliar
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Važna je maksima da nepoznato
05:58
is not the same as the improbable,
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nije isto što i nemoguće
06:00
and in fact, that's why we at Cambridge University
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i zato zapravo na Univerzitetu Kembridž
06:03
are setting up a center to study how to mitigate
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osnivamo centar za izučavanje toga
kako da se umanje
kako da se umanje
06:06
these existential risks.
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ovi egzistencijalni rizici.
06:08
It seems it's worthwhile just for a few people
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Čini se kao da vredi
da samo nekoliko ljudi
da samo nekoliko ljudi
06:11
to think about these potential disasters.
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razmišlja o ovim
potencijalnim katastrofama.
potencijalnim katastrofama.
06:14
And we need all the help we can get from others,
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Potrebna nam je sva pomoć
koju možemo dobiti od drugih
koju možemo dobiti od drugih
06:17
because we are stewards of a precious
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jer smo posada na dragocenoj
06:19
pale blue dot in a vast cosmos,
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bledoj plavoj tački u ogromnom kosmosu,
06:23
a planet with 50 million centuries ahead of it.
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na planeti koja ispred sebe ima
50 miliona vekova.
50 miliona vekova.
06:26
And so let's not jeopardize that future.
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Hajde da ne ugrozimo tu budućnost.
06:29
And I'd like to finish with a quote
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Želeo bih da završim citatom
06:30
from a great scientist called Peter Medawar.
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sjajnog naučnika, Pitera Medavara.
06:34
I quote, "The bells that toll for mankind
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On kaže:
"Zvona koja zvone za čovečanstvom
"Zvona koja zvone za čovečanstvom
06:37
are like the bells of Alpine cattle.
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su poput zvona na grlima stoke u Alpima.
06:40
They are attached to our own necks,
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Prikačena su za naše vratove
06:42
and it must be our fault if they do not make
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i mora da je naša krivica
ako ne proizvode
ako ne proizvode
06:45
a tuneful and melodious sound."
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harmoničan i melodičan zvuk."
06:47
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
06:49
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Rees - AstrophysicistLord Martin Rees, one of the world's most eminent astronomers, is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at the University of Cambridge and the UK's Astronomer Royal. He is one of our key thinkers on the future of humanity in the cosmos.
Why you should listen
Lord Martin Rees has issued a clarion call for humanity. His 2004 book, ominously titled Our Final Hour, catalogues the threats facing the human race in a 21st century dominated by unprecedented and accelerating scientific change. He calls on scientists and nonscientists alike to take steps that will ensure our survival as a species.
One of the world's leading astronomers, Rees is an emeritus professor of cosmology and astrophysics at Cambridge, and UK Astronomer Royal. Author of more than 500 research papers on cosmological topics ranging from black holes to quantum physics to the Big Bang, Rees has received countless awards for his scientific contributions. But equally significant has been his devotion to explaining the complexities of science for a general audience, in books like Before the Beginning and Our Cosmic Habitat.
Martin Rees | Speaker | TED.com