TED2009
Sean Gourley: The mathematics of war
Sean Gourley o matematici ratovanja
Filmed:
Readability: 3.6
1,030,256 views
Izvlačeći neobrađene podatke iz vijesti i ucrtavajući ih na grafikon, Sean Gourley i njegov tim dolaze do zapanjujućeg zaključka o naravi suvremenog ratovanja -- i možda do modela rješavanja sukoba.
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theorist
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We look around the media, as we see on the news from Iraq,
0
0
3000
Pregledavamo po medijima i vidimo vijesti iz Iraka,
00:15
Afghanistan, Sierra Leone,
1
3000
3000
Afganistana, Sierra Leonea,
00:18
and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us.
2
6000
4000
i sukob nam izgleda neshvatljiv.
00:22
And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project.
3
10000
4000
A tako je svakako izgledao meni kad sam započeo s ovim projektom.
00:26
But as a physicist,
4
14000
2000
Ali kao fizičar,
00:28
I thought, well if you give me some data,
5
16000
3000
mislio sam, no, ako mi date podatke,
00:31
I could maybe understand this. You know, give us a go.
6
19000
2000
možda ću razumjeti. Znate, dajte nam neki početak.
00:33
So as a naive New Zealander
7
21000
2000
Pa sam, kao naivni Novozelanđanin
00:35
I thought, well I'll go to the Pentagon.
8
23000
2000
mislio, pa, idem u Pentagon.
00:37
Can you get me some information?
9
25000
2000
Možete li mi dati neke informacije?
00:39
(Laughter)
10
27000
3000
(Smijeh)
00:42
No. So I had to think a little harder.
11
30000
4000
Ne. Pa sam morao ozbiljnije razmišljati.
00:46
And I was watching the news one night in Oxford.
12
34000
3000
I jedne večeri sam u Oxfordu gledao vijesti.
00:49
And I looked down at the chattering heads on my channel of choice.
13
37000
3000
Gledao sam brbljave glave na programu koji sam odabrao.
00:52
And I saw that there was information there.
14
40000
2000
I uvidio sam da tu postoje informacije.
00:54
There was data within the streams of news that we consume.
15
42000
3000
Postoje podaci u tim strujama vijesti koje konzumiramo.
00:57
All this noise around us actually has information.
16
45000
4000
Sav taj šum oko nas zapravo sadrži informacije.
01:01
So what I started thinking was,
17
49000
2000
Pa sam počeo razmišljati
01:03
perhaps there is something like open source intelligence here.
18
51000
3000
da možda postoji nešto poput javno dostupne inteligencije ovdje.
01:06
If we can get enough of these streams of information together,
19
54000
3000
Ako dovoljno tih struja vijesti možemo okupiti
01:09
we can perhaps start to understand the war.
20
57000
3000
možda možemo početi razumijevati rat.
01:12
So this is exactly what I did. We started bringing a team together,
21
60000
3000
Pa sam upravo to učinio. Okupili smo tim,
01:15
an interdisciplinary team of scientists,
22
63000
2000
interdisciplinarni tim znanstvenika,
01:17
of economists, mathematicians.
23
65000
3000
ekonomista, matematičara.
01:20
We brought these guys together and we started to try and solve this.
24
68000
3000
Spojili smo te ljude i počeli s pokušajima da ovo riješimo.
01:23
We did it in three steps.
25
71000
2000
Učinili smo to u tri koraka.
01:25
The first step we did was to collect. We did 130 different sources of information --
26
73000
4000
Prvi korak je bio prikupljanje. Obradili smo 130 različitih izvora informacija --
01:29
from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news.
27
77000
3000
od izvješća neprofitnih organizacija do novina i kablovskih vijesti.
01:32
We brought this raw data in and we filtered it.
28
80000
3000
Unijeli smo sirove podatke i filtrirali ih.
01:35
We extracted the key bits on information to build the database.
29
83000
3000
Izvukli smo ključne dijelove informacija i izgradili bazu podataka.
01:38
That database contained
30
86000
2000
Baza je sadržavala
01:40
the timing of attacks,
31
88000
2000
vrijeme napada,
01:42
the location, the size and the weapons used.
32
90000
2000
lokaciju, snagu i oružje koje se upotrijebilo.
01:44
It's all in the streams of information we consume daily,
33
92000
3000
Sve je to u strujama informacija koje dnevno trošimo,
01:47
we just have to know how to pull it out.
34
95000
2000
i samo moramo znati kako to izvući.
01:49
And once we had this we could start doing some cool stuff.
35
97000
2000
A kad smo to učinili, mogli smo početi s nekim sjajnim stvarima.
01:51
What if we were to look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks?
36
99000
3000
Što ako pogledamo distribuciju snage napada?
01:54
What would that tell us?
37
102000
2000
Što bi nam to reklo?
01:56
So we started doing this. And you can see here
38
104000
2000
Pa smo počeli s time. I ovdje vidite
01:58
on the horizontal axis
39
106000
2000
na vodoravnoj osi
02:00
you've got the number of people killed in an attack
40
108000
2000
imate broj ljudi ubijenih u napadu
02:02
or the size of the attack.
41
110000
2000
odnosno snagu napada.
02:04
And on the vertical axis you've got the number of attacks.
42
112000
3000
A na okomitoj osi imate broj napada.
02:07
So we plot data for sample on this.
43
115000
2000
Pa smo ucrtali podatke da dobijemo uzorak.
02:09
You see some sort of random distribution --
44
117000
2000
Vidite neku vrstu slučajne distribucije --
02:11
perhaps 67 attacks, one person was killed,
45
119000
3000
možda 67 napada, jednu ubijenu osobu,
02:14
or 47 attacks where seven people were killed.
46
122000
3000
ili 47 napada u kojima je ubijeno sedam osoba.
02:17
We did this exact same thing for Iraq.
47
125000
2000
Baš ovo smo uradili i za Irak.
02:19
And we didn't know, for Iraq what we were going to find.
48
127000
3000
I nismo znali što ćemo otkriti.
02:22
It turns out what we found was pretty surprising.
49
130000
4000
Pokazuje se da smo otkrili nešto prilično iznenađujuće.
02:26
You take all of the conflict,
50
134000
2000
Uzmete sve sukobe,
02:28
all of the chaos, all of the noise,
51
136000
2000
sav kaos, sve te šumove,
02:30
and out of that
52
138000
2000
i iz toga
02:32
comes this precise mathematical distribution
53
140000
2000
proiziđe ova precizna matematička distribucija
02:34
of the way attacks are ordered in this conflict.
54
142000
3000
onoga kako napadi izgledaju u ovom sukobu.
02:37
This blew our mind.
55
145000
2000
Ovo nas je zaprepastilo.
02:39
Why should a conflict like Iraq have this
56
147000
4000
Zašto bi sukob poput iračkog pokazao ovo
02:43
as its fundamental signature?
57
151000
2000
kao svoj fundamentalni potpis?
02:45
Why should there be order in war?
58
153000
2000
Zašto bi postojao nekakav red u ratu?
02:47
We didn't really understand that.
59
155000
2000
Nismo to zaista razumjeli.
02:49
We thought maybe there is something special about Iraq.
60
157000
4000
Mislili smo da možda ima nešto posebno u iračkom ratu.
02:53
So we looked at a few more conflicts.
61
161000
2000
Pa smo pogledali još neke sukobe.
02:55
We looked at Colombia, we looked at Afghanistan,
62
163000
2000
Pogledali smo Kolumbiju, pogledali smo Afganistan,
02:57
and we looked at Senegal.
63
165000
2000
i Senegal.
02:59
And the same pattern emerged in each conflict.
64
167000
2000
I isti se uzorak pojavio u svakom sukobu.
03:01
This wasn't supposed to happen.
65
169000
2000
Ovo se nije trebalo dogoditi.
03:03
These are different wars, with different religious factions,
66
171000
3000
To su različiti ratovi, s različitim vjerskim skupinama,
03:06
different political factions, and different socioeconomic problems.
67
174000
3000
različitim političkim frakcijama i različitim socioekonomskim problemima.
03:09
And yet the fundamental patterns underlying them
68
177000
4000
Pa ipak, fundamentalni uzorak u temeljima
03:13
are the same.
69
181000
3000
bio je isti za sve.
03:16
So we went a little wider.
70
184000
2000
Pa smo proširili promatranje.
03:18
We looked around the world at all the data we could get our hands on.
71
186000
3000
Pogledali smo po svijetu, sve podatke do kojih smo mogli doći.
03:21
From Peru to Indonesia,
72
189000
3000
Od Perua do Indonezije,
03:24
we studied this same pattern again.
73
192000
2000
opet smo proučavali isti uzorak.
03:26
And we found that not only
74
194000
3000
I otkrili smo ne samo da su
03:29
were the distributions these straight lines,
75
197000
2000
distribucije ove ravne linije,
03:31
but the slope of these lines, they clustered around
76
199000
2000
već i nagib tih linija, da se grupiraju oko
03:33
this value of alpha equals 2.5.
77
201000
3000
vrijednosti Alfa od 2,5.
03:36
And we could generate an equation
78
204000
2000
Pa smo mogli napisati jednadžbu
03:38
that could predict the likelihood of an attack.
79
206000
3000
koja bi predvidjela vjerojatnost napada.
03:41
What we're saying here
80
209000
2000
Ono o čemu govorimo jest
03:43
is the probability of an attack killing X number of people
81
211000
4000
da je vjerojatnost kako će napad ubiti X ljudi
03:47
in a country like Iraq
82
215000
2000
u zemlji poput Iraka,
03:49
is equal to a constant, times the size of that attack,
83
217000
3000
jednak konstanti, puta snaga napada,
03:52
raised to the power of negative alpha.
84
220000
3000
a sve na potenciju negativnog Alfa.
03:55
And negative alpha is the slope of that line I showed you before.
85
223000
6000
A negativni Alfa je nagib linije koju sam vam već pokazao.
04:01
So what?
86
229000
2000
Pa što?
04:03
This is data, statistics. What does it tell us about these conflicts?
87
231000
3000
Ovo su podaci, statistika. Što nam ona govori o tim sukobima?
04:06
That was a challenge we had to face as physicists.
88
234000
3000
S tim smo se izazovom morali suočiti kao fizičari.
04:09
How do we explain this?
89
237000
3000
Kako to objasniti?
04:12
And what we really found was that alpha,
90
240000
2000
A ono što smo doista otkrili je da,
04:14
if we think about it, is the organizational
91
242000
2000
ako doista promislimo o tome, Alfa predstavlja
04:16
structure of the insurgency.
92
244000
3000
organizacijsku strukturu pobune.
04:19
Alpha is the distribution of the sizes of attacks,
93
247000
3000
Alfa je distribucija snaga napada,
04:22
which is really the distribution
94
250000
2000
koja je zapravo distribucija
04:24
of the group strength carrying out the attacks.
95
252000
2000
snage skupine koja izvodi napade.
04:26
So we look at a process of group dynamics:
96
254000
2000
Pa smo promotrili proces dinamike skupine --
04:28
coalescence and fragmentation,
97
256000
3000
ujedinjenje i fragmentaciju.
04:31
groups coming together, groups breaking apart.
98
259000
2000
Skupine koje se ujedinjuju. Skupine u raspadanju.
04:33
And we start running the numbers on this. Can we simulate it?
99
261000
3000
I počeli smo analizirati te brojke. Možemo li to simulirati?
04:36
Can we create the kind of patterns that we're seeing
100
264000
3000
Možemo li stvoriti takve uzorke kakve vidimo
04:39
in places like Iraq?
101
267000
3000
na mjestima poput Iraka?
04:42
Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job.
102
270000
2000
Pokazuje se da nam uspijeva razumno dobro.
04:44
We can run these simulations.
103
272000
2000
Možemo pokrenuti simulacije.
04:46
We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics
104
274000
3000
Možemo to ponovno stvoriti rabeći proces dinamike skupine
04:49
to explain the patterns that we see
105
277000
2000
kako bismo objasnili uzorke koje vidimo
04:51
all around the conflicts around the world.
106
279000
5000
posvuda u sukobima širom svijeta.
04:56
So what's going on?
107
284000
2000
Pa, što se događa?
04:58
Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts
108
286000
3000
Zašto bi ti različiti – naizgled različiti sukobi
05:01
have the same patterns?
109
289000
2000
pokazivali isti uzorak?
05:03
Now what I believe is going on is that
110
291000
3000
Ono što ja vjerujem je
05:06
the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt.
111
294000
4000
da pobunjeničke snage evoluiraju tijekom vremena. Prilagođavaju se.
05:10
And it turns out there is only one solution
112
298000
2000
I pokazuje se da postoji samo jedno rješenje
05:12
to fight a much stronger enemy.
113
300000
2000
u borbi protiv puno jačeg neprijatelja.
05:14
And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force,
114
302000
3000
A ako ste pobunjenici i ne nađete to rješenje,
05:17
you don't exist.
115
305000
2000
tada ne postojite.
05:19
So every insurgent force that is ongoing,
116
307000
2000
Pa svaka pobunjenička sila koja opstaje,
05:21
every conflict that is ongoing,
117
309000
2000
svaki sukob koji traje,
05:23
it's going to look something like this.
118
311000
2000
izgleda nekako ovako.
05:25
And that is what we think is happening.
119
313000
3000
I to je ono što mislimo da se događa.
05:28
Taking it forward, how do we change it?
120
316000
2000
Gledajući unaprijed, kako to možemo promijeniti?
05:30
How do we end a war like Iraq?
121
318000
2000
Kako okončati rat poput iračkog?
05:32
What does it look like?
122
320000
2000
Kako to izgleda?
05:34
Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5.
123
322000
3000
Alfa je struktura. Njezino stabilno stanje je pri vrijednosti od 2,5.
05:37
This is what wars look like when they continue.
124
325000
4000
Tako izgledaju ratovi koji traju.
05:41
We've got to change that.
125
329000
2000
Moramo to promijeniti.
05:43
We can push it up:
126
331000
2000
Možemo to gurnuti prema gore.
05:45
the forces become more fragmented;
127
333000
2000
Snage postaju usitnjenije.
05:47
there is more of them, but they are weaker.
128
335000
4000
Ima ih više, ali su slabiji.
05:51
Or we push it down:
129
339000
2000
Ili to možemo pogurati nadolje.
05:53
they're more robust; there is less groups;
130
341000
2000
Snažniji su. Ima manje skupina.
05:55
but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.
131
343000
4000
Ali možda možemo sjesti i s njima razgovarati.
05:59
So this graph here, I'm going to show you now.
132
347000
2000
Pa ovaj grafikon, sada ću vam ga pokazati.
06:01
No one has seen this before. This is literally
133
349000
3000
Nitko ovo još nije vidio. Ovo je doslovno
06:04
stuff that we've come through last week.
134
352000
2000
ono što smo otkrili prošli tjedan.
06:06
And we see the evolution of Alpha through time.
135
354000
4000
Vidimo evoluciju Alfa vrijednosti kroz vrijeme.
06:10
We see it start. And we see it grow up to the stable state
136
358000
3000
Vidimo početak. Vidimo rast do stabilnog stanja
06:13
the wars around the world look like.
137
361000
2000
kako izgledaju ratovi širom svijeta.
06:15
And it stays there through the invasion of Fallujah
138
363000
3000
I vrijednost ostaje takva tijekom invazije na Faludžu
06:18
until the Samarra bombings in the
139
366000
2000
sve do bombardiranja u Samarri
06:20
Iraqi elections of '06.
140
368000
3000
na iračkim izborima 2006.
06:23
And the system gets perturbed. It moves upwards
141
371000
2000
I sustav se preokreće. Giba se nagore
06:25
to a fragmented state.
142
373000
2000
u fragmentirano stanje.
06:27
This is when the surge happens.
143
375000
2000
Ovdje se događa pobuna.
06:29
And depending on who you ask,
144
377000
2000
I, ovisno o tome koga pitate,
06:31
the surge was supposed to push it up even further.
145
379000
3000
pobuna ju je trebala gurnuti još više gore.
06:34
The opposite happened.
146
382000
2000
A dogodilo se suprotno.
06:36
The groups became stronger.
147
384000
2000
Skupine su postale jače.
06:38
They became more robust.
148
386000
2000
Postale su moćnije.
06:40
And so I'm thinking, right, great, it's going to keep going down.
149
388000
3000
Pa si mislim, dobro, sjajno, nastavit će se spuštati.
06:43
We can talk to them. We can get a solution. The opposite happened.
150
391000
3000
Možemo razgovarati s njima. Možemo naći rješenje. A dogodilo se obrnuto.
06:46
It's moved up again. The groups are more fragmented.
151
394000
3000
Opet je krenulo prema gore. Skupine su usitnjenije.
06:49
And this tells me one of two things.
152
397000
2000
A to mi govori jednu od dvije stvari.
06:51
Either we're back where we started
153
399000
3000
Ili se nalazimo na početku,
06:54
and the surge has had no effect;
154
402000
2000
i pobuna nije imala učinka.
06:56
or finally the groups have been fragmented to the extent
155
404000
4000
Ili su, napokon, skupine do te mjere usitnjene
07:00
that we can start to think about maybe moving out.
156
408000
4000
da možemo početi razmišljati o izvlačenju.
07:04
I don't know what the answer is to that.
157
412000
2000
Ne znam koji je odgovor na to pitanje.
07:06
But I know that we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency
158
414000
3000
Ali znam da bismo trebali promatrati strukturu pobune
07:09
to answer that question.
159
417000
2000
kako bismo odgovorili na to pitanje.
07:11
Thank you.
160
419000
2000
Hvala vam.
07:13
(Applause)
161
421000
5000
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theoristSean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow.
Why you should listen
Sean Gourley's twin passions are physics (working on nanoscale blue-light lasers and self-assembled quantum nanowires) and politics (he once ran for a national elected office back home in New Zealand).
A Rhodes scholar, he's spent the past five years working at Oxford on complex adaptive systems and collective intelligent systems -- basically, using data to understand the nature of human conflict. As he puts it, "This research has taken me all over the world from the Pentagon, to the House of Lords, the United Nations and most recently to Iraq". Originally from New Zealand, he now lives in San Francisco, where he is the co-founder and CTO of Quid which is building a global intelligence platform. He's a 2009 TED Fellow.
In December 2009, Gourley and his team's research was published in the scientific journal Nature. He is co-founder and CTO of Quid.
Sean Gourley | Speaker | TED.com