TED2009
Sean Gourley: The mathematics of war
Sean Gourley o matematike vojny
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Sean Gourley so svojím tímom vytiahol informácie zo správ, zobrazil ich na grafe a prišiel na neuveriteľnú súvislosť v moderných vojnách -- a možno aj spôsob, ako vyriešiť konflikty.
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theorist
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We look around the media, as we see on the news from Iraq,
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Keď sa rozhliadneme okolo, keď vidíme správy z Iraku,
00:15
Afghanistan, Sierra Leone,
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Afganistanu, Sierra Leone,
00:18
and the conflict seems incomprehensible to us.
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konflikt je pre nás nepochopiteľný.
00:22
And that's certainly how it seemed to me when I started this project.
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A tak mi to pripadalo, keď som začal pracovať na tomto projekte.
00:26
But as a physicist,
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Ale ako fyzik
00:28
I thought, well if you give me some data,
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som si povedal, ak mi dáte nejaké dáta,
00:31
I could maybe understand this. You know, give us a go.
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možno to pochopím. Viete, s údajmi to môžem skúsiť.
00:33
So as a naive New Zealander
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A tak som ako naivný Novozélandčan
00:35
I thought, well I'll go to the Pentagon.
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išiel do Pentagonu.
00:37
Can you get me some information?
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Môžete mi dať nejaké informácie?
00:39
(Laughter)
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(Smiech)
00:42
No. So I had to think a little harder.
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Nie. A tak som nad tým musel porozmýšľať viac.
00:46
And I was watching the news one night in Oxford.
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Jeden večer som pozeral správy v Oxforde
00:49
And I looked down at the chattering heads on my channel of choice.
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a pozrel som sa pod tie rozprávajúce hlavy.
00:52
And I saw that there was information there.
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A zbadal som tam informáciu.
00:54
There was data within the streams of news that we consume.
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V prúdoch správ, ktoré denne počúvame, sú údaje.
00:57
All this noise around us actually has information.
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Všetok ten hluk okolo nás v sebe obsahuje informáciu.
01:01
So what I started thinking was,
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A tak som začal rozmýšľať,
01:03
perhaps there is something like open source intelligence here.
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možno existuje niečo ako "open source" spravodajstvo.
01:06
If we can get enough of these streams of information together,
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Ak dáme dokopy dostatok týchto prúdov informácií,
01:09
we can perhaps start to understand the war.
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možno začneme chápať vojnu.
01:12
So this is exactly what I did. We started bringing a team together,
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A presne to som spravil. Poskladali sme tím,
01:15
an interdisciplinary team of scientists,
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tím vedcov z rôznych oblastí,
01:17
of economists, mathematicians.
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ekonómov, matematikov.
01:20
We brought these guys together and we started to try and solve this.
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A začali sme to riešiť
01:23
We did it in three steps.
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v troch krokoch.
01:25
The first step we did was to collect. We did 130 different sources of information --
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Ako prvé sme zbierali dáta. Mali sme 130 rôznych zdrojov informácií --
01:29
from NGO reports to newspapers and cable news.
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od správ z mimovládnych organizácií až po noviny a televíziu.
01:32
We brought this raw data in and we filtered it.
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Vzali sme tieto surové dáta a prefiltrovali sme ich.
01:35
We extracted the key bits on information to build the database.
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Vybrali sme kľúčové bity informácii a vybudovali sme databázu.
01:38
That database contained
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Tá databáza obsahovala
01:40
the timing of attacks,
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načasovanie útokov,
01:42
the location, the size and the weapons used.
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miesto, veľkosť a použité zbrane.
01:44
It's all in the streams of information we consume daily,
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Všetko je to v tých prúdoch informácií, ktoré denne počúvame,
01:47
we just have to know how to pull it out.
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len sme museli vedieť, ako to z nich vytiahnuť.
01:49
And once we had this we could start doing some cool stuff.
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Keď sme toto mali, mohli sme začať robiť zaujímavé veci.
01:51
What if we were to look at the distribution of the sizes of attacks?
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Čo ak sa pozrieme na rozloženie veľkosti útokov?
01:54
What would that tell us?
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Čo nám to povie?
01:56
So we started doing this. And you can see here
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Začali sme robiť toto. Tu vidíte
01:58
on the horizontal axis
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na horizontálnej osi
02:00
you've got the number of people killed in an attack
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počet ľudí zabitých pri útoku
02:02
or the size of the attack.
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alebo veľkosť útoku.
02:04
And on the vertical axis you've got the number of attacks.
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A na vertikálnej osi máte počet útokov.
02:07
So we plot data for sample on this.
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Zakreslili sme vzorové údaje.
02:09
You see some sort of random distribution --
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Vidíte náhodné rozloženie --
02:11
perhaps 67 attacks, one person was killed,
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možno 67 útokov s jednou obeťou
02:14
or 47 attacks where seven people were killed.
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alebo 47 útokov, kde zomrelo sedem ľudí.
02:17
We did this exact same thing for Iraq.
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Presne toto sme urobili s dátami z Iraku.
02:19
And we didn't know, for Iraq what we were going to find.
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A nevedeli sme, čo nájdeme.
02:22
It turns out what we found was pretty surprising.
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To, čo z toho vyšlo, sme nečakali.
02:26
You take all of the conflict,
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Vezmete celý ten konflikt,
02:28
all of the chaos, all of the noise,
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všetok ten chaos, všetok ten hluk,
02:30
and out of that
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z toho
02:32
comes this precise mathematical distribution
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vám vyjde presné matematické rozloženie
02:34
of the way attacks are ordered in this conflict.
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spôsobu, akým sú usporiadané útoky v tomto konflikte.
02:37
This blew our mind.
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To nám vyrazilo dych.
02:39
Why should a conflict like Iraq have this
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Prečo by mal mať konflikt ako v Iraku toto
02:43
as its fundamental signature?
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ako svoj podpis?
02:45
Why should there be order in war?
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Prečo by mala byť vo vojne nejaká štruktúra?
02:47
We didn't really understand that.
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Tomu sme nechápali.
02:49
We thought maybe there is something special about Iraq.
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Mysleli sme si, možno je na Iraku niečo zvláštne.
02:53
So we looked at a few more conflicts.
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A tak sme sa pozreli na nejaké ďalšie konflikty.
02:55
We looked at Colombia, we looked at Afghanistan,
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Pozreli sme sa na Kolumbiu, na Afganistan,
02:57
and we looked at Senegal.
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na Senegal.
02:59
And the same pattern emerged in each conflict.
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A rovnaký vzor sa objavil v každom konflikte.
03:01
This wasn't supposed to happen.
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Toto sa nemalo stať.
03:03
These are different wars, with different religious factions,
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Toto boli rôzne vojny, s rôznymi náboženskými stranami,
03:06
different political factions, and different socioeconomic problems.
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s rôznymi politickými stranami a s rôznymi spoločensko-ekonomickými problémami.
03:09
And yet the fundamental patterns underlying them
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A napriek tomu je vzor, ktorý sa za nimi skrýva,
03:13
are the same.
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rovnaký.
03:16
So we went a little wider.
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Tak sme to rozšírili.
03:18
We looked around the world at all the data we could get our hands on.
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Pozreli sme sa na všetky dáta, ku ktorým sme sa dostali.
03:21
From Peru to Indonesia,
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Od Peru až po Indonéziu
03:24
we studied this same pattern again.
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sme našli ten istý vzor zas a znova.
03:26
And we found that not only
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A zistili sme, že nielenže
03:29
were the distributions these straight lines,
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sú tieto rozloženia rovné čiary,
03:31
but the slope of these lines, they clustered around
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ale sklony týchto čiar sa pohybujú okolo
03:33
this value of alpha equals 2.5.
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hodnoty alfa rovnej 2,5.
03:36
And we could generate an equation
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A tak sme mohli napísať rovnicu,
03:38
that could predict the likelihood of an attack.
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ktorá vie predpovedať pravdepodobnosť útoku.
03:41
What we're saying here
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Toto hovorí, že
03:43
is the probability of an attack killing X number of people
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pravdepodobnosť útoku, ktorý zabije X ľudí,
03:47
in a country like Iraq
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v krajine ako Irak,
03:49
is equal to a constant, times the size of that attack,
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sa rovná konštanta krát veľkosť útoku
03:52
raised to the power of negative alpha.
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umocnená na zápornú alfu.
03:55
And negative alpha is the slope of that line I showed you before.
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A záporná alfa je sklon tej čiary, ktorú som vám predtým ukázal.
04:01
So what?
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A čo teraz?
04:03
This is data, statistics. What does it tell us about these conflicts?
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Toto sú údaje, štatistika. Čo nám to hovorí o týchto konfliktoch?
04:06
That was a challenge we had to face as physicists.
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To bola výzva, ktorej sme ako fyzici museli čeliť.
04:09
How do we explain this?
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Ako to vysvetlíme?
04:12
And what we really found was that alpha,
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A zistili sme, že alfa,
04:14
if we think about it, is the organizational
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ak sa nad tým zamyslíme, je organizačná
04:16
structure of the insurgency.
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štruktúra útokov.
04:19
Alpha is the distribution of the sizes of attacks,
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Alfa je rozloženie veľkostí útokov,
04:22
which is really the distribution
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čo je v skutočnosti rozloženie
04:24
of the group strength carrying out the attacks.
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síl skupín, ktoré vykonávajú útoky.
04:26
So we look at a process of group dynamics:
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Pozreli sme sa na proces dynamiky skupiny --
04:28
coalescence and fragmentation,
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spojenie a rozdelenie.
04:31
groups coming together, groups breaking apart.
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Skupiny sa spájajú. Skupiny sa rozdeľujú.
04:33
And we start running the numbers on this. Can we simulate it?
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Pustili sme na to čísla. Môžeme to simulovať?
04:36
Can we create the kind of patterns that we're seeing
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Môžeme vytvoriť typ vzorov, ktorý vidíme
04:39
in places like Iraq?
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na miestach ako Irak?
04:42
Turns out we kind of do a reasonable job.
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Zistili sme, že to čo robíme, dáva zmysel.
04:44
We can run these simulations.
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Vieme spustiť tieto simulácie.
04:46
We can recreate this using a process of group dynamics
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Vieme to znovu vytvoriť s použitím procesu dynamiky skupín
04:49
to explain the patterns that we see
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a vieme vysvetliť vzory, ktoré vidíme
04:51
all around the conflicts around the world.
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v konfliktoch na celej zemi.
04:56
So what's going on?
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Takže, o čo tu ide?
04:58
Why should these different -- seemingly different conflicts
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Prečo majú tieto rôzne -- zdanlivo rôzne konflikty
05:01
have the same patterns?
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rovnaký vzor?
05:03
Now what I believe is going on is that
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Myslíme si,
05:06
the insurgent forces, they evolve over time. They adapt.
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že tieto útočiace skupiny sa vyvíjajú. Prispôsobujú sa.
05:10
And it turns out there is only one solution
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Existuje len jedno riešenie,
05:12
to fight a much stronger enemy.
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ako bojovať proti omnoho silnejšiemu nepriateľovi.
05:14
And if you don't find that solution as an insurgent force,
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A ak útočiaca skupina nenájde to riešenie,
05:17
you don't exist.
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neexistuje.
05:19
So every insurgent force that is ongoing,
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Každá útočiaca sila, ktorá sa vyvíja,
05:21
every conflict that is ongoing,
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každý konflikt, ktorý pokračuje,
05:23
it's going to look something like this.
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bude vyzerať nejako takto.
05:25
And that is what we think is happening.
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Myslíme si, že práve to sa deje.
05:28
Taking it forward, how do we change it?
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Posuňme sa ďalej, ako to môžeme zmeniť?
05:30
How do we end a war like Iraq?
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Ako ukončíme vojnu ako v Iraku?
05:32
What does it look like?
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Ako to vyzerá?
05:34
Alpha is the structure. It's got a stable state at 2.5.
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Alfa je štruktúra. Má stabilnú hodnotu 2,5.
05:37
This is what wars look like when they continue.
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Takto vojny vyzerajú, keď pokračujú.
05:41
We've got to change that.
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To musíme zmeniť.
05:43
We can push it up:
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Môžeme ju posunúť nahor.
05:45
the forces become more fragmented;
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Skupiny budú viac roztrieštené.
05:47
there is more of them, but they are weaker.
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Je ich viac, ale sú slabšie.
05:51
Or we push it down:
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Alebo ju posunieme nadol.
05:53
they're more robust; there is less groups;
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Sú silnejší, ale máme menej skupín.
05:55
but perhaps you can sit and talk to them.
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Možno si s nimi môžete sadnúť a porozprávať sa.
05:59
So this graph here, I'm going to show you now.
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Ukážem vám tento graf.
06:01
No one has seen this before. This is literally
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Nikto ho ešte nevidel. Toto je úplne
06:04
stuff that we've come through last week.
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nová vec, na ktorú sme prišli minulý týždeň.
06:06
And we see the evolution of Alpha through time.
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Vidíme vývoj alfy za čas.
06:10
We see it start. And we see it grow up to the stable state
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Vidíme, ako začína. A vidíme, ako narastie na stabilnú hodnotu
06:13
the wars around the world look like.
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vo vojnách na celom svete.
06:15
And it stays there through the invasion of Fallujah
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A zostáva tam počas invázie Fallujah
06:18
until the Samarra bombings in the
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až do bombových útokov v Samarre
06:20
Iraqi elections of '06.
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počas irackých volieb v 2006.
06:23
And the system gets perturbed. It moves upwards
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A potom sa systém naruší. Prejde nahor
06:25
to a fragmented state.
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do rozdeleného stavu.
06:27
This is when the surge happens.
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Vtedy sa uskutočňujú útoky.
06:29
And depending on who you ask,
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A podľa toho, koho sa pýtate,
06:31
the surge was supposed to push it up even further.
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útoky by to mali posúnuť ešte vyššie.
06:34
The opposite happened.
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Ale stane sa presný opak.
06:36
The groups became stronger.
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Skupiny zosilnejú.
06:38
They became more robust.
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Sú mohutné a odolné.
06:40
And so I'm thinking, right, great, it's going to keep going down.
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A tak by som čakal, že to bude stále klesať.
06:43
We can talk to them. We can get a solution. The opposite happened.
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Môžeme sa s nimi porozprávať. Môžeme nájsť riešenie. Ale stane sa opak.
06:46
It's moved up again. The groups are more fragmented.
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Posunie sa opäť nahor. Skupiny sa rozdelia.
06:49
And this tells me one of two things.
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A toto mi hovorí jednu alebo druhú vec.
06:51
Either we're back where we started
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Buď sme tam, kde sme začali
06:54
and the surge has had no effect;
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a invázia nemala žiadny efekt,
06:56
or finally the groups have been fragmented to the extent
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Alebo sa skupiny rozdelili do takej miery,
07:00
that we can start to think about maybe moving out.
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že môžeme začať premýšľať o odchode.
07:04
I don't know what the answer is to that.
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Neviem, ktoré z tých dvoch je správne.
07:06
But I know that we should be looking at the structure of the insurgency
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Ale viem, že by sme sa mali pozerať na štruktúru útokov,
07:09
to answer that question.
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aby sme získali odpoveď.
07:11
Thank you.
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Ďakujem.
07:13
(Applause)
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(Potlesk)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theoristSean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow.
Why you should listen
Sean Gourley's twin passions are physics (working on nanoscale blue-light lasers and self-assembled quantum nanowires) and politics (he once ran for a national elected office back home in New Zealand).
A Rhodes scholar, he's spent the past five years working at Oxford on complex adaptive systems and collective intelligent systems -- basically, using data to understand the nature of human conflict. As he puts it, "This research has taken me all over the world from the Pentagon, to the House of Lords, the United Nations and most recently to Iraq". Originally from New Zealand, he now lives in San Francisco, where he is the co-founder and CTO of Quid which is building a global intelligence platform. He's a 2009 TED Fellow.
In December 2009, Gourley and his team's research was published in the scientific journal Nature. He is co-founder and CTO of Quid.
Sean Gourley | Speaker | TED.com