TEDWomen 2010
Hans Rosling: The magic washing machine
ハンス・ロスリングと魔法の洗濯機
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Readability: 2.9
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産業革命における最も偉大な発明は何だったか？ハンス・ロスリングは洗濯機だと唱えます。経済発展と電気が退屈な洗濯日を知的な読書の日に変身させる魔法を、ロスリングがGapminderで作成した新しいグラフィックを使ってお見せします。
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
I was only four years old
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私の母が洗濯機を
00:17
when I saw my mother load a washing machine
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初めて使うのを見た時
00:20
for the very first time in her life.
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私はたったの4歳でした
00:23
That was a great day for my mother.
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母にとっては最高の日でした
00:25
My mother and father had been saving money for years
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私の両親は何年もお金を貯め
00:28
to be able to buy that machine,
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やっとその洗濯機を買ったのです
00:30
and the first day it was going to be used,
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初めて使うことになった日
00:32
even Grandma was invited
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洗濯機を見に来るよう
00:34
to see the machine.
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祖母までが呼ばれました
00:36
And Grandma was even more excited.
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祖母は母以上にワクワクしていました
00:39
Throughout her life
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祖母は
00:41
she had been heating water with firewood,
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水を薪で沸かし
00:43
and she had hand washed laundry
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子供7人分の洗濯物を
00:45
for seven children.
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手洗いしてきました
00:47
And now she was going to watch
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でも 電気がその仕事をするのを
00:50
electricity do that work.
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見る日がきたのです
00:53
My mother carefully opened the door,
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母はそっとフタを開け
00:57
and she loaded the laundry
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洗濯物を
00:59
into the machine,
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洗濯機に入れました
01:01
like this.
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こんな感じです
01:03
And then, when she closed the door,
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そして母がフタを閉めると
01:05
Grandma said, "No, no, no, no.
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祖母は「待っておくれスイッチは
01:07
Let me, let me push the button."
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私に押させておくれ」と言いました
01:11
And Grandma pushed the button,
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そして祖母はスイッチを入れ
01:13
and she said, "Oh, fantastic!
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「こりゃすごいねぇ どうなるのか見なくちゃ
01:16
I want to see this! Give me a chair!
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椅子をとっておくれ
01:18
Give me a chair! I want to see it,"
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見物したいんだよ」と言いました
01:20
and she sat down in front of the machine,
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そして洗濯機の前に陣取って
01:23
and she watched the entire washing program.
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「洗濯ショー」を最初から最後まで観たのでした
01:27
She was mesmerized.
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見とれていました
01:29
To my grandmother,
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祖母にとっては
01:32
the washing machine was a miracle.
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洗濯機は信じられないものだったのです
01:35
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,
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現在スウェーデンやその他の裕福な国では
01:38
people are using
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人々が様々な機械を
01:40
so many different machines.
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使っています
01:42
Look, the homes are full of machines.
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家庭には機械が溢れ
01:44
I can't even name them all.
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全部挙げられない程です
01:46
And they also, when they want to travel,
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そして人々はどこかに行きたい時
01:49
they use flying machines
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空を飛ぶ機械を使って
01:52
that can take them to remote destinations.
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遠くに行くことができます
01:54
And yet, in the world, there are so many people
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でもまだ 世界では大勢の人々が
01:56
who still heat the water on fire,
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火をおこして水を温め
01:59
and they cook their food on fire.
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料理をしています
02:02
Sometimes they don't even have enough food,
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十分な食料がないこともあります
02:04
and they live below the poverty line.
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「貧困ライン」を下回る生活をしています
02:07
There are two billion fellow human beings
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20億人の人々が
02:10
who live on less than two dollars a day.
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1日2ドル以下で暮らしています
02:12
And the richest people over there --
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こちらの裕福な人々は
02:14
there's one billion people --
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10億人いて
02:16
and they live above what I call the "air line,"
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1人あたり1日80ドル以上の
02:20
because they spend more than $80 a day
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消費支出の この人達の生活は
02:23
on their consumption.
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「エアライン」を上回ると言えます
02:25
But this is just one, two, three billion people,
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でもこれでは10億 20億 30億人だけです
02:28
and obviously there are seven billion people in the world,
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世界の人口は70億なので
02:31
so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more
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まだ10億 20億 30億 40億人いるはずです
02:34
who live in between the poverty and the air line.
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この人々は「貧困ライン」と「エアライン」の間にいます
02:37
They have electricity,
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電気がある生活です
02:40
but the question is, how many have washing machines?
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でも気になるのは「何人が洗濯機を持っているのか」です
02:43
I've done the scrutiny of market data,
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市場データの詳しい調査をすると
02:46
and I've found that, indeed,
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確かに洗濯機は
02:48
the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,
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「エアライン」以下でも普及していると分かりました
02:51
and today there's an additional one billion people out there
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あと10億人の人々が現在世界では
02:54
who live above the "wash line."
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「物干しライン」を上回る生活をしています
02:57
(Laughter)
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（笑い）
02:59
And they consume more than $40 per day.
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この人々は1日40ドル以上消費します
03:03
So two billion have access to washing machines.
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洗濯機を使っているのは20億人なわけです
03:06
And the remaining five billion,
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残りの50億人は
03:08
how do they wash?
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どうやって洗濯しているのか？
03:10
Or, to be more precise,
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もっと正確に言うと
03:12
how do most of the women in the world wash?
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世界の女性の大半はどう洗濯しているのか？
03:15
Because it remains hard work for women to wash.
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洗濯は今なお女性の重労働だからです
03:19
They wash like this: by hand.
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こうやって手洗いしています
03:22
It's a hard, time-consuming labor,
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時間のかかる大変な仕事です
03:26
which they have to do for hours every week.
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しかも毎週何時間もしなくてはなりません
03:29
And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away
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家で洗濯するため遠くから
03:32
to do the laundry at home,
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水を汲んでくる必要がある場合もあります
03:34
or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.
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または遠くの川に洗濯物を運ばなくてはなりません
03:38
And they want the washing machine.
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洗濯機が欲しいと思っています
03:41
They don't want to spend such a large part of their life
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他と比べても能率の悪い
03:44
doing this hard work
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重労働をするのに
03:46
with so relatively low productivity.
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日々の大半を使いたくないのです
03:48
And there's nothing different in their wish
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この女性達の望みは
03:50
than it was for my grandma.
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私の祖母の望みと同じです
03:52
Look here, two generations ago in Sweden --
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このように二世代前のスウェーデンでは
03:55
picking water from the stream,
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川から水を汲んで
03:57
heating with firewood and washing like that.
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火で水を温め洗濯していました
04:00
They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
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この女性達も全く同じ状況で洗濯機を欲しがっているのです
04:03
But when I lecture to environmentally-concerned students,
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でも環境意識の高い生徒にこう言うと
04:06
they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."
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「世界中の誰もが車や洗濯機を所有するなんて無理です」と言います
04:11
How can we tell this woman
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この女性にどうして
04:13
that she ain't going to have a washing machine?
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洗濯機はダメと言えるのでしょうか？
04:15
And then I ask my students,
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この2年間 私は
04:17
I've asked them -- over the last two years I've asked,
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生徒達に質問してきました
04:19
"How many of you doesn't use a car?"
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「車を使わない人は？」と言うと
04:21
And some of them proudly raise their hand
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何人か自慢げに手を挙げて
04:23
and say, "I don't use a car."
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「車には乗っていません」と言います
04:25
And then I put the really tough question:
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そのあと肝心な質問をします
04:27
"How many of you
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「自分のジーンズやシーツを
04:29
hand-wash your jeans and your bed sheets?"
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手洗いしている人は？」
04:31
And no one raised their hand.
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すると手を挙げる生徒は1人もいません
04:34
Even the hardcore in the green movement
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厳格な環境保護運動者たちでも
04:37
use washing machines.
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洗濯機を使っているのです
04:39
(Laughter)
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（笑い）
04:43
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses
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では誰もが使っていて
04:45
and they think others will not stop it? What is special with this?
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使われ続けるであろう洗濯機は何がスゴイのでしょう？
04:48
I had to do an analysis about the energy used in the world.
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世界のエネルギー消費量を分析しなくてはなりませんでした
04:51
Here we are.
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これです
04:53
Look here, you see the seven billion people up there:
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これを見ると70億人いると分かります
04:55
the air people, the wash people,
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「エア層」や「物干し層」の人
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the bulb people and the fire people.
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「電球層」や「焚き火層」の人
05:00
One unit like this
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これ1つが
05:02
is an energy unit of fossil fuel --
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化石燃料のエネルギー単位だとします
05:05
oil, coal or gas.
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石油や石炭やガスです
05:07
That's what most of electricity and the energy in the world is.
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世界の大部分の電気やエネルギー源です
05:11
And it's 12 units used in the entire world,
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世界で12個分消費されていて
05:14
and the richest one billion, they use six of them.
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最も裕福な10億人が6個分消費しています
05:17
Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world's population.
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世界人口の7分の1が半分のエネルギーを使っているのです
05:20
And these ones who have washing machines,
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そして洗濯機はあるけれど
05:22
but not a house full of other machines,
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家中にいろいろな機器はない
05:24
they use two.
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この人々は2個分使います
05:26
This group uses three, one each.
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このグループは1個ずつ 合計3個分です
05:28
And they also have electricity.
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この人々には電気もあります
05:30
And over there they don't even use one each.
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でもこちらでは それぞれ1個も使用していません
05:33
That makes 12 of them.
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これで合計12個です
05:35
But the main concern
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でも環境に関心のある生徒が
05:37
for the environmentally-interested students -- and they are right --
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主に心配しているのは ― もっともなのですが
05:40
is about the future.
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将来のことです
05:42
What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends,
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動向はどうなっているのか？ 傾向線を
05:45
without any real advanced analysis, to 2050,
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特別な分析なしで2050年まで伸ばすと
05:48
there are two things that can increase the energy use.
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エネルギー消費量を増加する要因は2つです
05:51
First, population growth.
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1つは人口の増加
05:53
Second, economic growth.
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もう1つは経済の発達です
05:55
Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here
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人口増加は主に最も貧困な人々の間で起こります
05:58
because they have high child mortality
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幼児死亡率が高く
06:00
and they have many children per woman.
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出産率が高いからです
06:02
And [with] that you will get two extra,
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これで2個分増えますが
06:04
but that won't change the energy use very much.
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エネルギー使用はあまり変わりません
06:06
What will happen is economic growth.
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エネルギー使用を変えるのは経済発展です
06:09
The best of here in the emerging economies --
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新興経済で最も進んでいる
06:11
I call them the New East --
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「新・東洋」とも言える人々が
06:13
they will jump the air line.
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「エアライン」を越えます
06:15
"Wopp!" they will say.
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「あらよ！」ってなわけです
06:17
And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
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そして 現在の「旧・西洋」と同じように消費し始めます
06:20
And these people, they want the washing machine.
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こちらの人々は洗濯機を欲しがっています
06:23
I told you. They'll go there.
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言った通りです
06:25
And they will double their energy use.
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彼らのエネルギー消費量は倍になります
06:27
And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.
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そして貧困層には電気が普及していることを願います
06:30
And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.
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人口増加を止めず一家の子供は2人となります
06:32
But the total energy consumption
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でもエネルギー消費量は
06:34
will increase to 22 units.
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合計22個に増えます
06:36
And these 22 units --
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22個になったあとも最も裕福な人達が
06:39
still the richest people use most of it.
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続けて大半を使っています
06:43
So what needs to be done?
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どうすべきか？
06:45
Because the risk,
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実際に気候変動の
06:47
the high probability of climate change is real.
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確率は高く そのリスクは
06:50
It's real.
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紛れもないからです
06:52
Of course they must be more energy-efficient.
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省エネしなくてはなりません
06:55
They must change behavior in some way.
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習慣を変える必要があります
06:57
They must also start to produce green energy,
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自然エネルギー供給も始める必要があります
06:59
much more green energy.
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もっとたくさんです
07:01
But until they have the same energy consumption per person,
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でも1人当たりのエネルギー消費量が同等になるまで
07:04
they shouldn't give advice to others --
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他人にああしろこうしろと
07:06
what to do and what not to do.
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指図するべきでありません
07:08
(Applause)
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（拍手）
07:10
Here we can get more green energy all over.
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こちらでも自然エネルギーを増やせます
07:14
This is what we hope may happen.
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こうなることを願います
07:16
It's a real challenge in the future.
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今後の重要な課題です
07:19
But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio,
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でもリオの貧民街のこの女性が洗濯機を
07:22
she wants a washing machine.
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欲しがっているのは確かです
07:24
She's very happy about her minister of energy
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国民全員に電気供給をしたエネルギー相を
07:27
that provided electricity to everyone --
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とても評価して
07:29
so happy that she even voted for her.
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このエネルギー相に投票しました
07:32
And she became Dilma Rousseff,
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そして そのジルマ・ルセフは
07:34
the president-elect
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世界でも有数の
07:36
of one of the biggest democracies in the world --
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民主主義国にて
07:38
moving from minister of energy to president.
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エネルギー相から大統領になりました
07:41
If you have democracy,
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民主主義下では
07:43
people will vote for washing machines.
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人々は洗濯機に一票入れるのです
07:45
They love them.
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洗濯機は望まれているのです
07:49
And what's the magic with them?
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では何が魔法なのか？
07:51
My mother explained the magic with this machine
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私の母は洗濯機を初めて使った日に
07:54
the very, very first day.
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それを教えてくれました
07:56
She said, "Now Hans,
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「ハンス 洗濯機に
07:58
we have loaded the laundry.
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洗濯物を入れたから
08:00
The machine will make the work.
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あとは洗濯機がやってくれる
08:02
And now we can go to the library."
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その間図書館に行けるのよ」と
08:04
Because this is the magic:
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これが魔法なのです
08:06
you load the laundry,
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洗濯物を入れて
08:08
and what do you get out of the machine?
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洗濯機から何を得るのか？
08:10
You get books out of the machines,
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本です
08:13
children's books.
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児童書です
08:15
And mother got time to read for me.
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そして子供に本を読む時間です
08:17
She loved this. I got the "ABC's" --
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母は大喜びでした 私は「ABC」を学びました
08:19
this is where I started my career as a professor,
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私の教授のキャリアはここからスタートしています
08:22
when my mother had time to read for me.
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母が本を読んでくれる時間ができてからです
08:24
And she also got books for herself.
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母は自分用にも本を借り
08:26
She managed to study English
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外国語として英語を
08:28
and learn that as a foreign language.
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勉強する時間を作りました
08:30
And she read so many novels,
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また様々な小説を
08:32
so many different novels here.
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沢山読みました
08:35
And we really, we really loved this machine.
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私と母は洗濯機がとても気に入りました
08:39
And what we said, my mother and me,
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そして私たちに言わせればこうだったのです
08:42
"Thank you industrialization.
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「産業化よ ありがとう
08:45
Thank you steel mill.
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製鋼所よ ありがとう
08:47
Thank you power station.
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発電所よ ありがとう
08:49
And thank you chemical processing industry
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化学処理工業よ ありがとう
08:52
that gave us time to read books."
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本を読む時間を与えてくれて」
08:54
Thank you very much.
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ありがとうございました
08:56
(Applause)
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（拍手）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionaryIn Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.
Why you should listen
Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.
What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.
Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.
Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)
Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.
Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com